Indigenous Climate Forecasting Services for Improved Adaptation: The Case of Borana Herders,

Southern Ethiopia

Desalegn September 1-4/2014

Presentation outline 1. Title

2. Background and Justification

3. Purpose of the Research

4. Research site and Methodology

5. Findings of the research

Abiotic and Biotic climate forecasting system

Forecast information dissemination

Herders attitude to Indigenous forecasting services

Socioeconomic preparations

Background and Justification

Indigenous climate forecasting system is dynamic and is

built on observation and long years of experience

(Ziervogel et al., 2010)

Different cultures make use of biotic and or abiotic

indicators to forecast about the future climate conditions

However, studies show that in recent years the vitality of

indigenous climate forecasting mechanisms is declining

Purpose of the Research

• This research assess the nature of biotic and

abiotic Borana climate forecasting systems

• Evaluate the precision and credibility of different indigenous climate forecasting systems

Study area Cont’

Methodology Data source and method of Collection

•Interview of indigenous forecast experts,

•FGD with selected herders

•Overt observation and animal entrails Diagnose

•Survey selected households

•NMSA rainfall data

Method of analysis

• thematic content analysis was employed

•Drought assessment method that developed by Agnew

& Chappel (1999)

Abiotic and Biotic Climate Forecast indicators

In Borana climate forecast is made using

• Plant body language readings

• Animal body language readings

• Intestinal reading

• Celestial body readings

In all forecasting systems there is no special ritual

activity or any food or sexual restrictions

Mode of acquiring the Climate Forecasting Skill

• Making climate forecast based on star alignment and

intestinal reading requires exceptional observation

and interpretation skill and Knowledge

• Urgi Elaltu and Uchu teach the skill to their eldest son

as they received it from their fathers

• The skill transfer is preserve only for men

Abiotic Climate Forecasting Indicators

• Traditional astrologists are able to forecast the upcoming

rainfall onset, cessation and volume at different time

scale i.e. ranging from a week –three years Using

celestial bodies observations

• Forecasting is based on some stars (alignment, apparent

movement, size and appearance)

• The color of the sun, cloud cover, temperature and wind

Star-Moon Alignment

Astrological Alignment

Biotic Indicators :Animal body language

• A future drought is forecasted if cattle display the

following behaviors

• If they become calm, sleep in the pen very close to

one another, bulls lack interest in mating and isolate

• E.g. If they show normal sexual desire and the bull

visits many cows within a short period of time, they

lick each other’s body

Biotic Indicators :Animal body language Con’t

• The behavior of wild animals and insects such

as activities of termites and squirrel (Tuka),

seasonal migration of bees, the varying tones of

hyena screaming and bird song also used for

climate forecasting

Biotic Indicators :Plant body language

Figure 1 Tedecha (acacia) tree

Figure 2 Ret (Aloe) tree

Intestinal Reading

System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts

• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus are in charge of

forecasting climate and disseminating

information, but do not have an obligation to

do so and are not paid

• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus communicates

climate information to community elders and

heads of Geda who then disseminate it by

summoning people for urgent meetings

System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts Cont’

• Alternatively, information is announced in market

places, water points and village settlements

• Interested people can personally go to the houses of

experts and ask for climate information so that their

contacts can receive and transfer the same

information

• DAs and NGOs also disseminate the forecast

information

Socio-Economic Preparations in View of Expected Drought

• They stop sawing crops for a harvesting year

• Strengthen area enclosure through community bylaw

• Saving water and grass

• Storing hay

• Migrating with animals (water and pasture)

• Destocking animals

• Changing reduce expenditure and schedules for social

and cultural festivities such as wedding

• Individual and group praying

Herders attitude about ICFS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Wake feta Christian Muslim

Right practiceWrong practice

The Credibility of Traditional Climate Forecasting

• The precision and credibility of all modes of

traditional climate forecast steadily declining due to

repeated faulty predictions

• However, still there are Elaltus’ who commands

high respect among the Borana herders (e.g. Kalicha

Qoncher)

• The number of traditional climate forecaster

(experts) have decreased over time in their localities

Comparison of forecasting and level of mismatches with Recorded data drought assessment

Match Mismatch

Abiotic indicator forecast vs. instrumental record 50% 50%

Biotic indicator forecast vs. instrumental record 21.5% 78.5%

Between abiotic and biotic indicators forecasts 60.7% 39.3%

Socio-Economic Preparations in View of Expected Drought

• They stop sawing crops for a harvesting year

• Strengthen area enclosure through community bylaw

• Saving water and grass

• preparing livestock medicine

• Store hay

• Migrating with animals (water and pasture)

• Destocking animals

• Changing schedules for social and cultural festivities

such as wedding or reduce expenditure

• Individual and group praying

Recommendation

• Before traditional climate forecasting

completely disappears, a remedial action

should be carried out to prevent irreversible

loss of intangible cultural heritage

• The scientific community, the government

and other stakeholders should examine the

main causes for the declining quality of

indigenous climate forecasting practices.

Thank You !