indonesia lng to support development of power and industry domestic sampe l purba v1
TRANSCRIPT
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INDONESIA LNG:
TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POWER
AND INDUSTRY DEMAND
Sampe L. Purba
Senior VP – Executive Advisor SKKMIGAS
Presented on: The FSRU Asia Summit 2017
20 – 21 June 2017
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The Role of SKK Migas as Upstream Oil &
Gas Management: playing the role of an
integrator
Healthy and competitive return on investment
Prompt and thorough approval processes
Capital value Process, start-up and execution
Investment objectives
National & Local content development and utilisation
Oil and gas delivery to meet domestic needs
Government revenues
Developmental objectives
Technically feasible
Economically
investable
Environmentally
sustainable
Good Governance
Cost efficiency
National Capacity
Building
Balancing
New Paradigm Revenue approach to economic engine growth and development (Shifting Paradigm to togenerate multiplier effect to the national economy: Pro Growth, Pro Job, Pro Environment, while enhancing the local content in project development) 2
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Indonesia - Managing Gas
For Nation’s Economic Growth and Global Market
Contribution
Finding more gas
resources and how we can
transfer it to add to the
proven reserves• Maintaining exploration to find
hydrocarbon and adding more gas reserves
Developing gas supply
to meet the ever
growing demand• Gas Supply and Demand
Management
Ensuring attractiveness of
upstream gas activities• Low production cost• Fair share of revenue
There is shifting
energy from oil
dominant to gas
dominant• Maintaining the oil
production using EOR and IOR
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The rising energy demand as consequence of rapid economic growth will make Indonesia more focus in supplying its
domestic needs. However, exports will be maintained for existing contracts as well as to support new project
developments. As domestic demand will grow in gradual manner, there is a need to implement more interruptible mid-
terms contracts to create the flexibility in domestic and export supply.
While exports are being maintained, most of additional gas supply now goes to the domestic market
Source: SKK Migas
4
4,3
97
4,4
16
4,2
02
4,0
08
3,8
20
3,7
75
3,6
81
4,3
36
4,0
78
3,6
31
3,4
02
3,2
37
3,0
90
28
49
1,4
80
1,4
66
1,5
13
2,3
41
2,5
27
2,9
13
3,3
23
3,3
79
3,2
67
3,5
50
3,7
03
3,7
85
3,8
80
39
71
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BB
TUD
Export Domestic
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Indonesia Gas Demand vs Supply
Source: Wood Mackenzie on Indonesia Energy Forum 2016 5
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Cautiously to understand and read the Graph and Figures
Demand side :
- Prediction on economy growth
- Alternative available domestic source of
energy (Coal, Fuel, Gas, others renewable
energy)
- Energy supply packaging contract
- Dynamics of RUPTL (Projection for 10
years, yet revisited annually)
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Supply Side Issues
• Economics of fields to develop
• Terms of PSC – economics limits
of reserves
• Scheduling to monetization
• Long term Commitment stability
of supply
• Under and less utilization of gas
allocated 7
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Nation Strategic Target
267
MMSCFD
2,867
MW
6,754
MW
450
MW
1,091
MW
1,830
MW440
MW
423
MMSCFD
86
MMSCFD
147
MMSCFD48
MMSCFD
38
MMSCFD
35 GW Electricity Project
TOTAL GAS NEEDED:1,100 MMSCFD
TOTAL POWER:13,432 MW
Anticipate to be a LNG Importer :
With Electricity as an Anchor Buyer8Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
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Demand and Allocation of Natural Gas in Indonesia for Electricity
LNG SupplyPipeline Supply
in BBTUD
Source: Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 1750 Year 20179
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In addition to the existing gas infrastructures, new gas pipelines and FSRUs are being constructed and planned to
support the domestic demand
Planned LNG Receiving Terminal
Existing Pipeline
Planned Pipeline
CNG Plant
LNG Plant
Existing
Project
Potential
Gas Supply: Gas Demand:
Contracted
Commited
Potential
FSRU Nusantara RegasCapacity: 3 MTPAOn stream Mid of 2012
FSRU LampungCapacity: 2 MTPAOn stream July 2014
Arun Regasification PlantCapacity: 3 MTPAOn stream January 2015
Donggi Senoro LNG PlantCapacity: 2 MTPAOn stream May 2015
Source: SKK Migas
FSRU BenoaCapacity: 0.5 MTPAOn stream March 2016
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With Current Capacity is Under Utilitize, we should
cautiously Review on LNG Regasification Plant
Source: Wood Mackenzie on Indonesia Energy Forum 2017Source: SKK Migas
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Issues in Fulfilling Gas Demand in Java
Gas Demand for Industry and
Electricty mainly in Western Java
Supply
LNG
Bontang
Tangguh
Import?
Pipeline
Gas
Sumatera Supply
Western java supply
Supply from other Java region
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Indonesia Domestic Regassification
Infrastructure to Support Demand Growth
Source: Wood Mackenzie on Indonesia Energy Forum 2017 14
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INFRASTRUCTURES: Pipeline, Liquefaction, Regasification and Proposed
Virtual Pipeline Power Plant—Central and Eastern Indonesia (2030)
Total Investment Needed:
24.3 Billion USDSource: Mr. Naryanto Wagimin Presentation – Ministry of
Energy and Mineral Resources15
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Virtual Pipeline Cluster Concept
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Supply – Demand – Infrastructure interdependence
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BLUEPRINT FOR GAS POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN PART OF INDONESIA
PLTMG Saumlaki 10 MW PLTMG Merauke 20 MW
PLTMG Dobo 10 MW
PLTMG Langgur 20 MW
MPP Papua (Jayapura) 50 MWPLTMG Jayapura Peaker 40 MW
PLTMG Timika Peaker 10 MW
PLTMG Fak-Fak 10 MW
MPP Papua Barat (Manokwari) 20 MW
PLTMG Biak 15 MW
PLTMG Serui 10 MWPLTMG Bintuni 10 MW
PLTMG Nabire 20 MW
PLTMG Seram Peaker 20 MW
PLTMG Ambon Peaker 30 MW
MPP Maluku (Ambon) 70 MW
PLTMG Namlea 10 MW
Gas Salawati
Gas Bintuni
1.524 NM144.4 MMSCFD
862 NM78.6 MMSCFD
1.494 NM15 MMSCFD
HUB
19Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
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End Remarks• In meeting growing gas demand, Increasing LNG use for domestic
consumption is unavoidable. Gas infrastructure will be the key.
• Oil and gas business activities not as an extractive industry per se but to
generate multiplier effect to the national economy: Pro Growth, Pro Job,
Pro Environment, while enhancing the local content in project
development.
• Indonesia is actively constructed FSRU to support the growth of
Domestic Demand
• Significant gas base load demand can be created, as replacement of fuel
base consumption, i.e. gas oil is still spread out. Once the base demand
and infrastructure are in place, gas consumption will proliferate, hence
creating Indonesia not only as importance LNG producers but also as
LNG consumers
• However, One should take into account the dynamics of projection of
demand as it highly correlates with economic growth and all variety of
primary energy supply Sources20
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THANK YOU
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Brief CV• Sampe L. Purba, is a Professional in oil and gas related managerial business
around 15 years. He has involved in almost all value chain of Oil and Gas keymanagerial role namely Planning department, Legal, General Support, Finance,Audit and Commercial. Currently he serves as Senior VP - Executive AdvisorSKKMIGAS
• Mr. Purba entered some Universities both domestics and abroad. He holdsundergraduate and post graduate degrees in Economics, Commerce and Law.He is also alumni of Prestigious Regular National Leadership Course in NationalResilience Institution – Republic of Indonesia
• Mr. Purba registered as active member of Professional Association such asAssociation of International Petroleum Negotiators (AIPN), Indonesian PetroleumSociety, Indonesian Accountant Association, Indonesia Bar Association, Associateof Certified Fraud Examiner, Indonesia Chamber of Commerce
• As part of maintaining and updating his knowledge and sharing of experiences,Mr. Purba actively attends and gives workshop, conferences and seminardomestic and abroad.
• Mr. Purba also active communicating his ideas on many strategic and currentissues, through newspapers, radio, TV, journals and book. Some of his thoughtcan be followed in http.//maspurba.wordpress.com