indonesia monthly economic update - mufg bank · gross domestic product (gdp) 2q2018 gdp growth...

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2Q2018 GDP: Household Consumption as the Main Drive r Executive Summary

• The economy is growing at a better pace, Indonesia GDP grew by 5.27% YoY in 2Q2018. It was faster than predicted and also the highest since 2013. Broken down by expenditure, the GDP growth was mainly driven by household consumption and investment. Government expenditure provides additional support, spurred by social spending disbursement and upcoming presidential election. Meanwhile, by sector, manufacturing industry and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors were the main contributors of GDP.

• Going forward, Indonesia economic expansion is expected to continue. This growth will be mainly driven by consumption growth which is expected to sustain at above 5% level in the next quarters, supported by low and stable inflation forecast until end of 2018. Furthermore, more incoming investment shall continue to push the economic growth, backed by domestic economic stability, relatively higher commodity price, and upcoming infrastructure projects by the government. Further hikes in the US interest rates remain the main risk because this could lead to capital outflows and put pressure on Rupiah. We expect full-year GDP growth will be at around 5.15% in 2018.

• In YTD basis, Indonesia recorded a total trade deficit of USD 3,088 mn in Jan-Jul period, which contributed to widening CAD at 3% of GDP in 2Q2018. This condition has driven the government’s effort to reduce import of several products (particularly raw material/capital goods which collectively accounted for 91% of Indonesia imports), in order to ease pressure on the CAD and stabilize Rupiah against USD. In addition to reducing import, the government also committed to give incentives for industries in order to boost export.

August 2018 Edition TALITHA NADIA AUDITA RESEARCH ANALYST

RESEARCH UNIT INVESTMENT BANKING DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT

+6221 5706185 EXT 2957 [email protected]

Indonesia Monthly Economic Update

MUFG Bank, Ltd. Jakarta Branch A member of MUFG, a global financial group 402/IBDD-RU/2018/TN

Indicators (Quarterly)* 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 4Q2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 GDP Growth 4.94% 5.01% 5.01% 5.06% 5.19% 5.06% 5.27% Current Account / GDP (%) -0.75% -0.90% -1.86% -1.76% -2.26% -2.21% -3.04%

Indicators (Monthly)* Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 M ay-18 Jun-18 Jul-18

Trade Balance (USD mn) -756 -53 1,123 -1,625 -1,454 1,707* -2,030 Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) 132 128 126 125 123 120 118 USD/IDR Exchange Rate (IDR per USD) 13,413 13,707 13,756 13,877 13,951 14,404 14,413

Inflation (YoY) 3.25% 3.18% 3.40% 3.41% 3.23% 3.12% 3.18% BI 7 Day RR Rate 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.75% 5.25% 5.25% Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, CEIC, IBDD Research Unit Note: *) The figures above are subject to change in line with any revisions by Statistics Indonesia

Table 1: Indonesia Macroeconomic Indicators*

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)

2Q2018 GDP growth result was above-expectation

• Indonesia GDP grew by 5.27% YoY in 2Q2018 (Figure 1). It was faster than predicted and also the highest since 2013. Broken down by expenditure, the GDP was mainly driven by household consumption and investment. Meanwhile, by sector, manufacturing industry and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors were the main contributors of GDP.

GDP by Expenditure • Household consumption, which accounts for

more than half of Indonesia’s GDP, recorded growth of 5.14% YoY, the highest since Sep 2014. The holiday allowance to civil servant, social assistance to lower middle class, harvest season, Eid holiday, and regional election improved spending level. Low and stable inflation was also amongst the factors contributing to consumption growth.

• Meanwhile, investment as the second largest contributor of GDP also continued to expand

by 5.87% YoY in 2Q2018. The increase in investment realization was mainly owing to Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability, growth potential (vast population), improvement in investment policy implementation, and upcoming long-term infrastructure projects. Additionally, several international institutions have upgraded Indonesia’s sovereign rating and rank of investment during the last one year. However, the investment grew slower (1Q2018: 7.95% vs. 2Q2018: 5.87%) most likely impacted by upcoming presidential election in 2019 as well as Rupiah depreciation, that may cause investors to undertake wait and see approach considering the uncertainty.

• This was confirmed by BKPM’s release of total investment realization amounted to IDR 176.3 tn (-4.9% QoQ and 3.1% YoY) in 2Q2018. The main contributor, foreign direct investment (FDI) which contributed around 60% of total realization, decreased by 13%

Figure 1: Indonesia Quarterly GDP Growth (YoY)

Source: Statistics Indonesia, obtained from CEIC

GDP Household Consumption

Government Expenditure Investment Export Import Net

Export 2Q2017 5.01% 4.95% -1.92% 5.34% 2.80% 0.20% 31.26% 3Q2017 5.06% 4.93% 3.48% 7.08% 17.01% 15.46% 32.16% 4Q2017 5.19% 4.97% 3.81% 7.27% 8.50% 11.81% -44.69% 1Q2018 5.06% 4.95% 2.74% 7.95% 6.17% 12.75% -45.60% 2Q2018 5.27% 5.14% 5.26% 5.87% 7.70% 15.17% -54.86%

Table 2: Indonesia GDP Growth by Expenditure (YoY)


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YoY. On the other hand, the domestic direct investment (DDI) grew by 32% YoY.

• Indonesia also reported government expenditure growth of 5.26% YoY after posting decelerating growth in the earlier quarter. The higher government spending might be caused by higher tax and non-tax revenue achievement up to Jun 2018, helped by commodity prices recovery. Moreover, the social security spending has been disbursed in advance during the first half of 2018.

• In contrast, net export decreased by 54.86% YoY in 2Q2018 due to higher growth of import (15.17%) as compared to export (7.70%). Increasing import was mainly impacted by fuel imports. Import of raw material and capital goods such as machinery are also growing and expected to create multiplier effects to the economy.

GDP by Sector • The growth in manufacturing industry,

wholesales & retail trade, and agriculture sector, have the largest contribution to 2Q2018 GDP growth, among others. Compared to the last quarter, agriculture showed the largest leap in growth contribution, owing to harvest season in several horticulture and plantation crops. However, manufacturing industry’s growth has decelerated from 4.56% YoY in 1Q2018 to 3.97% YoY in 2Q2018. The lower growth of manufacturing industry could be affected by higher cost of raw materials and slower export demand during the quarter. The other decelerating industries are construction, information & communication, financial services, and real estate (while the rest recorded faster growth as compared to 1Q2018).

BALANCE OF PAYMENT Increase of BoP deficit in 2Q2018 as CAD fell deepe r • As per BI, Indonesia’s balance of payment

(BoP) deficit enlarged to USD 4.31 bn in 2Q2018, the widest since the third quarter of 2015, impacted by higher current account deficit (CAD) in this quarter. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts only saw a surplus of USD 4 bn, which was inadequate to cover the CAD (Figure 2).

• The CAD rose to USD 8 bn (or 3% of GDP) in 2Q2018 from USD 5.7 bn (or 2.2% of GDP) in 1Q2018, the highest deficit in nearly four years (Figure 3 & Table 3). Looking into the components, higher CAD (as compared to the earlier quarter) was mainly due to lower surplus of goods trade as well as higher deficit of services and primary income (higher by USD 235 mn and USD 255 mn respectively). This was shown by rising trend of raw material imports and capital goods, coincided with the period for companies' dividend payment and foreign debt repayment.

Figure 2: Indonesia Balance of Payment

Source: Statistics Indonesia, obtained from CEIC Note: *) The figures above are subject to change in line with any revisions by BPS

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• We see that the higher CAD was in line with the increase in economic activity, reflected in the Indonesian economic growth of 5.27% YoY, which was driven by consumption and investment.

• Capital and financial surplus increased to USD 4.02 bn in 2Q2018. The higher surplus was mainly affected by portfolio investment (e.g. debt securities, equity capital) that turned to positive. The higher surplus of other investment also supported the overall surplus. The net capital inflow might primarily be due to investor’s interest on domestic interest rate despite the concerns toward external uncertainties as well as strengthening USD. As BI has raised the benchmark rate by 125 bps YTD, the ample yields due to IDR and USD interest rate differentials is expected to maintain attractiveness of Indonesia’s financial market.

Period Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18

Current Account / GDP (%)

-1.86% -1.76% -2.26% -2.21% -3.04%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-3.18% -3.09% -2.04% -1.82% -1.71%

Table 3: Indonesia Current Account to GDP Ratio*


Figure 4: Indonesia Capital and Financial Account *



Figure 3: Indonesia Current Account *

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TRADE BALANCE July 2018’s trade deficit was larger than expected at USD 2 bn

• Indonesia trade recorded a significant monthly deficit of USD 2,030 mn in Jul 2018, after posting a trade surplus of USD 1,707 mn in Jun 2018 (Figure 5). Jul 2018’s trade deficit was the biggest deficit since Aug 2013. As per Statistics Indonesia, the deficit was affected by higher surge in import compared to export (Table 4). The higher import and export activity in July could be affected by normalized working days post long holiday in June. This could also indicate acceleration in domestic production activity.

Export • July 2018's export increased to USD 16,243

mn (25% MoM), impacted by higher non-O&G export (e.g. vehicles and its parts; animal or vegetable fats and oils; mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation).

Import

• In the meantime, import also rose to USD 18,273 mn (62% MoM) mainly due to higher non-O&G import (e.g. machinery & mechanical appliances; electrical machinery & equipment, iron & steel).

• Indonesia’s non O&G import from China and Japan, as the major partners, surged by around 93% and 76% MoM respectively. Meanwhile the O&G export to China and Japan grew relatively lower at around 7% and 29%, respectively.

Source: Statistics Indonesia, obtained from CEIC Note: *) The figures above are subject to change in line with any revisions by Statistics Indonesia

Figure 5: Indonesia Trade Balance

Source: Statistics Indonesia, obtained from CEIC Note: *) The figures above are subject to change in line with any revisions by Statistics Indonesia

Table 4: Indonesia Trade Balance*

in USD mn* Jun-18 Jul-18 MoM Change YoY Change USD mn % USD

mn %

Total Exports 12,974 16,243 3,268 25% 2,631 19% Non-O&G Exports 11,293 14,815 3,522 31% 2,368 19%

O&G Exports 1,682 1,428 -253 -15% 263 23%

Total Imports 11,268 18,273 7,005 62% 4,387 32% Non-O&G Imports 9,127 15,657 6,530 72% 3,550 29%

O&G Imports 2,141 2,616 475 22% 838 47% Trade Balance 1,707 -2,030 -3,737 -219% -1,756 -640% Non-O&G Balance 2,166 -842 -3,008 -139% -1,177 -351%

O&G Balance -460 -1,188 -729 -159% -574 -94%

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FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES

Forex reserves fell further in July • BI reported on mid Aug 2018 that Indonesia’s

foreign exchange (forex) reserve declined by approximately USD 2 bn from USD 120 bn in June to USD 118 bn in July (Figure 6).

• The decreasing reserves in July was mainly contributed by the central bank’s continuous forex market intervention to prevent the Rupiah from further weakening against USD. In addition, the government’s external debt repayment can be linked to this month’s decline.

• The July’s reserves were sufficient to cover 6.9 months of imports as well as 6.7 months of imports and the government’s external debt repayments, which were above the minimum international adequacy standards of three months of imports. (Table 5).

• The central bank believes that the forex reserves would still be able to support the stability of the economy because the country’s outlook remain positive.

EXCHANGE RATE

Rupiah continued to depreciate in August primarily owing to external factors

• Over the last three weeks of Aug 2018 the Rupiah fluctuated in the range of 14,422-14,655 per USD (depreciated by 8.2% YTD) (Figure 7), mainly due to the relatively stronger USD which impacted to weakening of emerging market currencies including Indonesia. The stronger USD is triggered by Fed’s plan to increase interest rate in the short term to manage stability of its currently resilient economy.

• Overall Rupiah remained under pressure, although the Rupiah had been boosted shortly after government’s plan to narrow its fiscal deficit (from the estimated 2.12% in 2018 to 1.84% of GDP in 2019) as well as BI's decision to rise the 7-DRRR to 5.5%.

Figure 6: Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves

Source: Bank Indonesia, obtained from CEIC

Figure 7: USD/IDR Exchange Rate


(in months) Apr -18 May-18 Jun -18 Jul -18 Forex Reserves to Import 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.9 Forex Reserves to import and govt. external debt repayments

7.4 7.2 6.9 6.7

Table 5: Indonesia Forex to Import and Debt Repayment

Source: Bank Indonesia

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BI RATE

• Indonesia's central bank on Aug 15th 2018 raised its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time since mid-May. It raised the BI 7-DRRR by 25 bps to 5.5%, while the deposit and lending facility rates have also been raised by 25 bps to 4.75% and 6.25%, respectively (Figure 8). This move aimed to maintain the attractiveness and the stability of Rupiah, as the US economy has strengthened substantially.

• The US unemployment rate has declined steadily and the inflation has moved up just below the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) objective of 2%. With the ongoing US economic confidence, we expect that this strong performance will continue, hence, the Fed was also set to continue with its tightening stance.

• Acknowledging its tightening monetary policy could harm growth, BI lowered its outlook for economic growth this year to a range of 5.0-5.4% YoY from 5.1-5.5%.

Figure 8: BI Benchmark Rates


BI raises the benchmark rate by 25 bps to 5.5% to a id Rupiah

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INFLATION

Indonesia saw slight increase in July’s inflation • In July 2018, Indonesia recorded MoM

inflation of 0.28%, lower than 0.59% recorded in the previous month (Table 6). This lower MoM inflation also reflected the normalization of transportation services fares post Eid holiday (Figure 9). Even though the non-subsidized fuel price has been adjusted upward since early July, the impact on headline inflation was still modest. However, on yearly basis, July inflation increased slightly to 3.18% YoY, mainly due to higher contribution of foodstuff inflation this month relative to the same period last year.

• Looking into inflation by component groups, administered price moderated to 2.11% as the impact of electricity tariff hikes last year started to diminish, and the government has committed to maintain the energy prices such as electricity and subsidized-fuel unchanged in 2018 (Figure 10).

• Meanwhile, volatile food component posted 5.36% inflation in Jul 2018. After showing increasing tendency from Dec 2017 to Apr 2018, volatile inflation has been maintained at around 4-5% level in the past few months as the government managed to stabilize supply. In the meantime, core inflation stood

at 2.87% which is remain under-controlled, most likely due to stable household demand as well as limited impact on imported inflation.

• From BPS’s survey in 82 cities, 68 cities experienced inflation and the rest recorded deflation. Sorong (West Papua) recorded the highest inflation of 1.47% MoM, In contrast, Ambon (Maluku) recorded the highest deflation of 1.45% MoM.

• In the short term, we anticipated inflationary pressure as approaching Eid Al Adha (qurban) in Aug 2018. The pressure could be modest as long as the government are able to provide enough stock of meat and other foodstuff.

Figure 10: YoY Inflation


Period YoY* MoM** Jul-17 3.88% 0.22% Aug-17 3.82% -0.07% Sep-17 3.72% 0.13% Oct-17 3.58% 0.01% Nov-17 3.30% 0.20% Dec-17 3.61% 0.71% Jan-18 3.25% 0.62% Feb-18 3.18% 0.17% Mar-18 3.40% 0.20% Apr-18 3.41% 0.10% May-18 3.23% 0.21% Jun-18 3.12% 0.59% Jul-18 3.18% 0.28%

Table 6: Indonesia Inflation


Figure 9 : Contribution to July Inflation by Expenditure Group


0.28% Inflation in

Jul -18

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OUTLOOK

• Going forward, Indonesia economic recovery is expected to continue. This growth will mainly be driven by consumption growth which is expected to sustain at above 5% level in the next quarters, supported by low and stable inflation forecast until end of 2018. The disbursement of village funds in Aug 2018 is also expected to boost up employment and consumption levels of lower middle income class. Furthermore, the last Asian Games event in August is projected to have a positive impact on the regional economies (such as in Jakarta, Palembang and parts of West Java), as households and business sectors’ enthusiasm to involve in this events had boosted consumption. However, government incentives for consumption growth may be lower in the late half of 2018 due to absence of holiday allowance.

• Furthermore, more incoming investment shall continue to push the economic growth, backed by domestic economic stability, relatively higher commodity price, and upcoming infrastructure projects by the government. However, investment growth in the second half of the year would also depend on the success of the government’s

ability to sustain domestic stabilities i.e. keeping the Rupiah volatility at bay. If the measures are implemented well, and the forex reserve could be maintained high, then we might return investors’ confidence in the stability of the Rupiah.

• Moreover, in mid-Oct 2018, Indonesia will host the IMF-World Bank meeting in Bali. This meeting is expected to promote Indonesia’s investment, trade, as well as employment, as there will be around 15,000 country officials, academics, and journalists who will attend this event. Additionally, Indonesia is expected to collect more forex inflow, e.g. from tourism.

• In YTD basis, Indonesia recorded a total trade deficit of USD 3,088 mn in Jan-Jul period, which contributed to widening CAD at 3% of GDP in 2Q2018. In relation to the government’s initiatives mentioned above, this condition has driven the government’s effort to reduce import of several products (particularly raw material/capital goods which collectively accounted for 91% of Indonesia imports), in order to ease pressure on the CAD and stabilize Rupiah against USD. For instance, the government is planning to impose 7.5 to 10% import tariffs

Table 7: Historical and Forecasted Economic Indicat ors Indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018F* 2019F*

GDP Growth (% YoY) 4.88 5.02 5.07 5.15 5.30 Inflation (% YoY) 3.35 3.02 3.61 3.50 3.80 BI Rate (until 2015) / 7-Day RR Rate (%) 7.50 4.75 4.25 5.25-5.50 5.25-6.00 Current Account / GDP (%) -2.04 -1.82 -1.73 -2.50 -2.50 Exchange Rate (USD/IDR) 13,795 13,436 13,548 See Table 8 See Table 8

Source : Statistics Indonesia (obtained from CEIC), IBDD Research Unit’s Calculation Note : 2015 – 2017 figures are historical figures; 2018 – 2019 figures are forecast

Table 8: Exchange Rate Forecast*)

Indicator 2018 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 (F)* Q4 (F)* Q1 (F)* Q2 (F)* Exchange Rate (USD/IDR)

13,290-13,794 13,747-14,404 14,400–15,000 14,400–15,000 14,400–15,000 14,500-15,100

Source: MUFG Jakarta Branch’s forecast *) Note: We may revise our forecast depending on market and economic condition

Rupiah still in concern; GDP growth targeted at 5.3 % YoY in 2019 state budget

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on downstream products and 2.5% for raw material. Besides, it will also enforce the usage of biodiesel blend (B20) as compulsory for all vehicles and heavy machinery to curb fuel imports (Currently biodiesel usage is only mandatory for subsidized diesel users). In addition to reducing import, the government also committed to give incentives for industries in order to boost export.

• Despite the countermeasure for widening trade deficit, we anticipate the drawback of the import restriction (in the near to medium term, if the policy has been conducted) on the country’s economic development in general, since most of Indonesia’s import are raw materials/auxiliary and capital goods for manufacturing and infrastructure.

• The government has released financial note of the 2019 state budget with a more conservative GDP growth target of 5.3% YoY next year (Table 9). The target was far from Jokowi’s ambitious 7% growth target during his campaign in 2014, and also lower than the 5.4% target stated in the 2018 budget. The reason is the ongoing external challenges (that may have resulted in depreciation of the Rupiah) were expected to continue until next year, due to the

normalization of monetary policies in the US. The RAPBN also set the average Rupiah exchange rate target in 2019 to be at 14,400 per USD, lower compared with current 14,600 levels.

• In a bid to promote household consumption in 2019, the government plans to increase the salaries of more than 4.3 mn public servants, who have not received pay rises since 2016. On the other hand, Indonesia plans to reduce its budget deficit in 2019 in order to lower the fiscal risks amid global financial uncertainty. The government plans to reduce the deficit to IDR 297.2 tn (or 1.84 % of GDP) in 2019 state budget, from IDR 325.9 tn (or 2.12%) in this year's budget (Table 10). Next year's budget for infrastructure spending remains relatively large, at IDR 420.5 tn, compared with this year's IDR 410 tn.

• Hence, we observe that the government are proposing a tighter spending plan for 2019. Despite it will be an election year, but the main focus was on maintaining price stability amid global economic uncertainty (the Fed’s money tightening policies, the US-China trade war and fears of contagion effect from Turkish crisis) which may put pressure on the Rupiah.

Table 9: Macroeconomic Assumption in Indonesia Stat e Budget

Macroeconomic Assumptions 2018 APBN

2019 RAPBN

Economic growth (%) 5.4 5.3 Inflation (% YoY) 3.5 3.5 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 13,400 14,400 Interest rate (SPN) (%) 5.2 5.3 Oil price (USD/barrel) 48 70 Oil lifting (thd barrel/day) 800 750 Gas lifting (thd barrel/day) 1,200 1,250

Source: Ministry of Finance

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(End of Report)

Table 10: Indonesia State Budget (IDR tn)

APBN 2018 RAPBN 2019 % changes Government Revenue and Grant 1,894.7 2,142.5 13% Domestic Revenue 1,893.5 2,142.1 13% Grant 1.2 0.4 -64% Government Expenditure 2,220.7 2,439.7 10% Central Government 1,454.5 1,607.3 11% Regional Transfer 766.2 832.3 9% Government Deficit or Surplus (325.9) (297.2) -9% Government Financing 325.9 297.2 -9%

Source : Ministry of Finance

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APPENDICES:

Appendix 1: Composition of GDP by Expenditure

Source: Statistics Indonesia, extracted from CEIC

Appendix 2: Share of GDP by Sector in Q2 2018

Source: Statistics Indonesia, extracted from CEIC

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Appendix 3: GDP Growth by Sectors (YoY)

Source: Statistics Indonesia, extracted from CEIC *) Various sectors consist of Other Services, Business Services, Human Health & Social Work Activity, Real Estate, Electricity & Gas Supply, Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste & Recycling Management, Education Services, And Public Administration, Defense & Compulsory Social Security

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Appendix 4: 4W Monthly Sales

Source: GAIKINDO, Astra International

Appendix 5: 2W Monthly Sales

Source: AISI, Astra International

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Appendix 6: Retail Sales Index

Source: Bank Indonesia

Appendix 7: Consumer Confidence Index

Source: Bank Indonesia, extracted from CEIC

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Appendix 8: Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Inde x

Source: Nikkei, obtained from Bloomberg

Appendix 9: Indonesia Crude Oil Price

Source: CEIC

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Appendix 10: Indonesia Coal Price Reference

Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, obtained from CEIC

Appendix 11 : Malaysia Palm Oil Board – Crude Palm Oil Monthly Average Price

Source: Malaysia Palm Oil Board

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Figure 12: Commodity Price Forecast

Appendix 12: Commodity Price Forecast

Source: World Bank Forecast

Appendix 13: NPL and Credit Growth in Commercial Ba nks

Source: OJK (Indonesia Financial Services Authority), obtained from CEIC

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APBN 2018

(Approved)

YTD Jul 2018

Realization

YTD Jul 2018

Realization

vs FY Target

Δ Realization

YTD Jul 2018 vs

YTD Jul 2017

A. Revenue and Grant 1,894.7 994.4 52.5% 16.5%

1. Tax revenue 1,618.1 780.1 48.2% 14.6%

a. Domestic tax 1,579.4 754.7 47.8% 14.3%

b. International trade duty & Excise 38.7 25.3 65.5% 22.6%

2. Non-tax revenue 275.4 211.0 76.6% 22.5%

3. Grant 1.2 3.3 273.2% 273.2%

B. Expenditure 2,220.7 1,145.7 51.6% 7.7%

1. Central government expenditure 1,454.5 697.0 47.9% 15.3%

2. Transfer to region & Village fund 766.2 448.6 58.6% -2.3%

Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (A-B) (325.9) (151.3) n.a. n.a.

Budget Financing 325.9 206.6 63.4% -30.9%

Appendix 14: Indonesia State Budget Realization up t o July 2018 (IDR tn)

Source: Ministry of Finance

Appendix 15: Breakdown of Import by Category

Source: Statistics Indonesia

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MUFG Bank, Ltd. Jakarta Branch ECONOMIC RESEARCH TEAM

Budi Mulyono Rahmat Hendratama Head of Market Sales & Trading Dept Head of Investment Banking Development Dept [email protected] [email protected]

Ronald Charles Talitha Nadia Audita Senior Research Analyst – IBDD Research Analyst - IBDD [email protected] [email protected] Ersaly Aisyah Erwinputri Research Analyst - IBDD [email protected]

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