indonesian forestry outlook 2020
TRANSCRIPT
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Indonesian Forestry Outlook 2020
Pusat Rencana dan Statistik Kehutanan
Departemen Kehutanan Republik Indonesia
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Introduction
Current state of forests and forestry
Factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry
Probable scenarios and their implications
The State of Indonesia forests and forestry in2020
Recommended strategic actions and policies
Outline
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Determining involved forestry experts, and collecting andclarifying preliminary data
Identifying forest resources potential and issues and developinga base analysis that picture the current state of Indonesia
forests and forestry Conducting two focus group discussions to get important feed
backs and to identify factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry as well as to develop probable scenariosand their implication
Writing a draft report that pictures the future state of Indonesiaforests and forestry in 2020, and contain recommendedstrategic actions and policies that need to be followed up
Conducting two a one-day workshops that discusses the draftreport before completing the Indonesia Forestry Outlook 2020.
Introduction:Methodology
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Trends in forest resource
Wood and wood products
Wood as a source of energy
Non-Wood forest products
The Service functions of forests Key issues
Current State ofForests and Forestry
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Land Use in Indonesia
(Total Land Area 187.9 million ha)
Limited Production
Forest
14%
Conservation Forest
11%
Protection Forest
16%
Permanent Production
Forest
19%
Non-Forest Area
28%
Conversion
Production Forest
12%
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
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Land Cover by Island
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Papua
Kalimantan
Sumatera
Sulawesi
Maluku
Jawa
Bali & Nusa Tenggara
Islands
Million ha
Forested Land
Not Forested Land
No Data
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
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Land Cover by Function(Total Land Area 187.9 million ha)
14.4
22.1
18.2
20.6
10.7
8.0
4.0
5.6
5.8
12.6
11.1
44.2
1.5
2.3
1.7
2.0
1.0
2.2
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Conservation Forest
Protection Forest
Limited Production
Forest
Permanent Production
Forest
Conversion
Production Forest
Other Land Area(APL)
Million ha
Forested Land
Not Forested Land
No Data
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
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Forest Area, by Function and Island
(Total Forest Area 133.6 million Ha)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Papua Kalimantan Sumatera Sulawesi Maluku Jawa Bali & Nusa
Tenggara
MillionHa
Conversion Production Forest
Permanent Production Forest
Limited Production Forest
Protection Forest
Conservation Forest
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
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Growing Stock of Indonesia Forests
Primary forest 56.5 152.0
Secondary forest 51.3 103.2
Plantation Forest 97.3 97.3Damaged forest 26.6 55.5
Primary forest 63.5 171.1
Secondary forest 25.0 56.5
Damaged forest 13.0 46.5
Primary forest 47.7 146.8Secondary forest 26.6 82.2
Damaged forest 11.5 47.4
Primary forest 32.2 127.6
Secondary forest 23.1 53.6
Damaged forest 13.0 38.0
Convertible Production
Forest
Forest Function
Production Forest
Protection Forest
Conservation Forest
Growing Stock (M3/Ha)
Commercial
speciesAll species
Forest Condition
Source: Calculated based on Neraca Sumberdaya Hutan 2002 (MOF, 2004)
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Change in forest cover in 2000-2003
2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003
A. Forest Area 29.4 28.7 24.3 28.8 6.9 3.3 60.6 60.8
B. Non-Forest Area 3.4 2.4 32.1 35.5 3.8 1.3 39.4 39.232.9 31.1 56.4 64.3 10.7 4.6 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 14.0 16.2 8.9 6.7 0.5 0.5 23.4 23.4
B. Non-Forest Area 3.7 6.9 70.0 69.3 2.7 0.4 76.6 76.6
17.7 23.1 79.2 76.0 3.2 0.9 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 49.4 48.0 19.5 25.1 7.0 3.5 75.9 76.6
B. Non-Forest Area 6.2 5.3 15.3 17.1 2.6 1.1 24.1 23.4
55.5 53.2 34.8 42.2 9.7 4.6 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 38.2 42.5 8.9 12.0 15.5 8.0 62.7 62.5
B. Non-Forest Area 6.7 5.6 25.5 28.3 5.0 3.6 37.3 37.5
44.9 48.1 34.6 40.3 20.5 11.6 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 17.9 19.3 17.0 15.1 4.1 4.7 39.0 39.1
B. Non-Forest Area 9.1 17.6 45.2 40.6 6.6 2.8 61.0 60.9
27.1 36.9 62.2 55.6 10.7 7.5 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 46.0 49.3 21.5 25.7 23.6 16.0 91.1 91.1
B. Non-Forest Area 2.2 2.3 4.6 5.7 2.1 1.0 8.9 8.9
48.2 51.6 26.2 31.4 25.6 17.0 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 73.7 77.9 10.8 14.7 12.8 4.8 97.3 97.3
B. Non-Forest Area 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 2.7 2.7
75.2 79.4 11.7 15.7 13.1 4.9 100.0 100.0
A. Forest Area 44.7 45.7 17.0 20.8 9.2 4.5 70.9 71.1
B. Non-Forest Area 4.3 4.2 22.0 23.5 2.8 1.2 29.1 28.9
49.0 50.0 39.0 44.3 12.0 5.7 100.0 100.0
ISLAND
PERCENTAGE OF FOREST COVER
FORESTED LAND NON FORESTED LAND NO DATA TOTAL
SUMATERA
Total
JAVA
Total
KALIMANTAN
Total
SULAWESI
Total
BALI & NUSATENGGARA
Total
MALUKU
Total
PAPUA
Total
INDONESIA
Total
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
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Production Forest Area by Forest Condition
Production Forest Area (60.9 million ha)
Primary Forest
24%
Secondary Forest
36%Plantation
4%
Not Forested Land
30%
No Data
6%
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
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Production Forest Area by Condition and Major Island
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
Production Forest Area (60.9 millions ha)
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Papua
Kalimantan
Sumatera
Sulawesi
Maluku
Jawa
Bali & Nusa
Tenggara
Million ha
Primary Forest
Secondary Forest
Plantation
Not Forested Land
No Data
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The Development of Forest Concessionaires, 1993-2007
Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Millionha
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Un
it
Area (Million ha)
Unit
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Distribution of Forest Concessionaires in NaturalProduction Forest as of August 2007, by company type
21520.4
131.0
87 6.6
8 0.8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Unit Area (Million Ha)
Percentag
eJoint-VentureState-Shared Equity
State-Owned
Private
Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data 2007 ( MOF 2007)
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Yield and rotation of Indonesia's fast growing species
Acacia auriculiformis 12 - 23 8 -1 7
Acacia magnium 46 - 50 9
Agathis loranthifolia 27.7 - 24.9 30 - 50
Paraserianthes falcataria 37.4 15
Anthocephalus cadamba 20 - 24 5 - 10
Araucaria cuninghamii 17.0 - 18.5 9.5Cassia siamea 15 17
Casuarina equisetifolia1
10 - 20 7 - 10
Dalbergia latifolia 23.7 40
Eucalyptus deglupta 24.5 - 34 9
Gmelina arborea 35 7
Maesopsis eminii 13 - 34 10
Musanga smithii 14 - 19 9.5
Pinus merkusii 19.9 - 22.4 15 - 25
Pinus caribaea 24 7
Swietenia macrophylla 15 - 20 40 - 50
Sesbania grandiflora 25 31in ton/ha/year
Species
Mean annual increment
at an operationas scale
(m3/ha/year)
Age (year)
Source: Manual Kehutanan (MOF, 1992)
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Certified Forest Management Units in Indonesia Under
LEI Timber Certification Scheme as of September 2007
Source: The Indonesian Ecolabeling Institute
FMU Gross Area (ha) Issuance Year Forest Type
PT. Diamond Raya Timber 90,957 2001 Natural Forest
PT. Intraca Wood Manufacturing 250,000 2001 Natural Forest
PT. Inhutani I, Unit Labanan 82,240 2001 Natural Forest
PT. Sari Bumi Kusuma 147,600 2002 Natural Forest
PT. Erna Djuliawati 184,206 2003 Natural Forest
PT. Sumalindo Lestari Jaya II 269,660.10 2003 Natural Forest
KPS Ds. Selopuro-Wonogiri 262.77 2004 Community-basedForest
KPS Ds. Sumberejo-Wonogiri 547.77 2004 Community-basedForest
Koperasi Wana Manunggal Lestari 815.18 2006 Community-basedForest
Wono Lestari Makmur 1,179.00 2007 Community-basedForest
Catur Giri Manunggal 2,434.24 2007 Community-basedForest
Total 1,046,098.13 - -
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Community Forest (Hutan Rakyat - private lands )
Community Forest or Hutan Rakyat(Total area 1.57 millions ha)
Jawa
50%
Bali dan Nusa
Tenggara
12%
Kalimantan
9%
Sulawesi
13%Sumatera
14%
Maluku
1%
Papua
1%
Community forest plantations are about 124.467 ha
(Hutan Kemasyarakatan - public lands )Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years
Source: Direktorat Bina Usaha Perhutanan Rakyat (2004)
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Deforestation
Source: Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2007
0.90
1.80
2.83
1.08
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1982-1990 1990-1997 1997-2000 2000-2005
Hectare(m
illions)
I d i L d ti i 1994 2006 b
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Indonesia Log production in 1994-2006, by source(Changes in source and quality)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000*) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Volume
(MillionM3
Natural Production Forest ( RKT ) Conversion Production Forest (IPK) Izin Sah Lainnya ( ISL )
Plantation (Perum Perhutani) Industrial Plantation Forest (HTI)
Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data 2007 ( MOF 2007)
F t A d l d ti th i d 1994
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Forest Area and log production over the period 1994-2006 by Major Island
20%
39%3%
9%
2%
0%41%
39%8%
3%
5%
3%22%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Area Log production
Share(%
)
Papua
Maluku
Sulawesi
KalimantanBali dan Nusa Tenggara
Jawa
Sumatera
Sources: Areas were calculated based on Rekalkulasi Penutupan Lahan Indonesia 2005, Centre of ForestInventory and Mapping, 2005; Log production based on Indonesia Forestry Statistics, 1994-2006
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State of Indonesia wood products Industry in 2006
Item
Wood industry
Sawnwood &Woodworking
Plywood &Veneer
PulpFurniture
(2005)
Number ofCompany (Unit)
1600 (602); 90%are SME
130 (83) 13Mostly Home
industry
Installed Capacity
(mn M3 or mn Adt)10.49 11.09 6.45
Production
(mn M3 or mn Adt)4.46 4.66 5.67
Export Quantity
(mn M3 or mn ton)2.3 2.91 2.80 0.8
Export Value(US$bn)
1.29 1.30 1.12 1.9
Export destinations EU, USA,Japan, China
Japan, USA,UK
China, S.Korea,Italy, Japan
USA, Japan,Holland, France
Sources:BRIK (2006), MOF (2007); APKI (2007)
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Rapid growth and structural change in Indonesian woodindustry during 1980-2006
Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp(APKI 2007)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1980 1993 2006
Year
MillionM3orAdt
Sawnwood Plywood Veneer Block Board Wood Working Particle Board Chipwood Pulp
Change in Indonesia wood industry structure as
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Change in Indonesia wood industry structure asindicated by round wood equivalent (RWE) consumption
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1993 2006
Year
RWEConsumption
Pulp
Woodworking+Block+Particleboard+Chipwood
Plywood+Veneer
Sawnwood
Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp(APKI 2007)
Declining in utilization rate of Indonesia wood products
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Declining in utilization rate of Indonesia wood productsindustry capacity (1987-2006)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1987 2006
Year
Utilizatio
nrate(%
Sawnwood Plywood+Veneer Pulp
Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp(APKI 2007)
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Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)
Indonesia Export Values of Wood Products
(1980-2006)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1980 1993 2006
Year
Million
USD
Wood CharcoalPulp and Paper
Wood Based Panel
Sawnwood
Chips and Particles
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Indonesia Import Values of Wood Products
(1980-2006)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1980 1993 2006
Year
Million
USD
Wood CharcoalPulp and Paper
Wood Based Panel
Sawnwood
Chips and Particles
Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)
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Indonesia's Shares to the World Wood Products Exports
(1980-2006)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
1980 1993 2006
Year
Percentag
e(%)
Chips and Particles
Sawnwood
Wood Based Panel
Pulp and Paper
Wood Charcoal
Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)
Biomass: 35% 37% of Final energy consumption
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Source: Statistics of Energy Economics (2007)
Biomass: 35%-37% of Final energy consumptionWood energy: 80% of Biomass energy consumption
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Source: Statistics of Energy Economics (2007)
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Non-Wood Forest Products
Total Exports Value (USD 2.62 billions)
Other
9%
Spiritus Oil resin0%
Ter Kayu
0%
Bahan
Penyamak/Gambir/T
annin
2%
Terpentin
3%
Rattan handycraft
2%
Fauna
1%
Flora
0%
Sirlak, Getah dan
Damar
73%
Wood charcoal10%
Semi-finished rattan
products
9%
Sources: Indonesia Forestry Statistics, MOF, various years
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Conservation Forest
Terresterial Conservation Area
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Sumatera
Jawa
Bali dan Nusa Tenggara
Kalimantan
Sulaw esi
Maluku
Papua
Million Ha
Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary)
Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park) Taman Buru (Game Hunting Park)
Taman Nasional (National Park) Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park)
Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)
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Conservation Forest
Marine Conservation Area
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Sumatera
Jawa
Bali dan Nusa Tenggara
Kalimantan
Sulaw esi
Maluku
Papua
Million Ha
Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary)
Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park) Taman Nasional (National Park)
Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)
T l N b f Vi i
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Total Number of Visitors
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Thousan
dp
eople
Taman Nasional (National Park)
Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park)
Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park)
Total Number of Foreign Visitors
0
50
100
150
200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Thousan
dp
eople
Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)
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Key issues
Illegal logging and trade
Revitalization of forest industry
Deforestation and natural forest degradation
Poverty alleviation of communities around forests
Land tenurial disputes, especially related to customarylaw communities
Establishment of community forest
Establishment of forest management unit
Improvement of forest governance
Improvement of human resource quantity and qualityin forestry sector
Improvement of forestry research and developmentfunctions
Factors that influence the future state of forests and
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Factors that influence the future state of forests andforestry: Distribution of population, forestry and poverty
Source: BPS (2003) and World Bank (2006)
Forest, Rural Pop'n, & Poverty Indicators
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
1 Sumatera 2 Java 3 Kalimantan 4 Sulawesi 5 Bali & NTT 6 Maluku 7 Papua INDONESIA
% State Forest w/ Actual Cover % Prov Area w/ Actual Forest Cover (incl. private)
% Rural Pop'n (% Pop'n Perdesaan) BPS 2003 % in Poverty (% Penduduk Miskin) BPS 2003
Factors that influence the future state of
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There have been important and growing changes inregulatory structures, transparency, scrutiny andinvolvement of civil society in Indonesia.
The spotlight on illegal logging has intensified.
Anti-corruption forces in government forestry agencies,private industry, NGOs and the media are workingtogether against the entrenched special interests of thepast, which continue to wield great influence.
New laws are being passed or considered ontransparency, conflict resolution, agrarian reform,natural resource management and civil service reform.
It is recognized that the forestry policy environment ismulti-sector in character and requires interdepartmental
and multi-stakeholder approaches
Factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry:The political and institutional environment
Factors that influence the future state of
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Gross Domestic Product: 3.3% - 4.3% (1993 -2005)
Foreign Exchange: US$ 6.24 bn or 11.7% (1997) , US$5.41 bn or 6.1% (2006)
Government Revenue:Rp 1.16 tn or 1.7%Rp 3.37 tnor 0.7% (1993-2005)
Direct Employment: 500 600 thousand employees
Factors that influence the future state offorests and forestry:Economic changes
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Probable scenarios and their implications:
Rationale for scenario definition
Scenarios analysis is developed based on two mostuncertain or unpredictable variables in Indonesia: thegovernance and economic development factors
By doing this, policy measures can be developed that
take the main risks to the sector into account This also provides an opportunity to reflect on forestry
as one of many sectors within a dynamic economy
P b bl i d h i i li i
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Probable scenarios and their implications:
Scenarios
Focus on total degraded forest area because of the vastland area involved (33.4 million ha), the rapid rate ofchange of land status from forested to non-forested, therelatively unmanaged status and the most obvious andlogical places to begin to think about rationalizing the
forest estate and allowing more equitable and pro-pooraccess and activities
Rehabilitation and plantation development are thereforeof central importance to the forestry sector in Indonesiagiven the reduction in supply from natural forests
Two major forestry policy objectives: forest rehabilitationand plantation development were then consideredwithin the two factors chosen: (a) effectiveness of policyimplementation and institutions, and (b) economic
growth rate
P b bl i d h i i li i
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Probable scenarios and their implications:
Scenarios
Fasteconomic
growth
2. Unsustainable growthForest rehabilitation unlikely
Development of privately ownedplantations possible but somegovernment support needed.
Little chance of development ofcommunity plantations althougheconomic development may helpresolve land disputes.
4. Sustainable developmentForest rehabilitation andplantation developmentproceed on the basis ofeffective policy implementationand sufficient investment.
Sloweconomic
growth
1. Socio-economicdevelopment stalls
Forest rehabilitation unlikely
Plantation development unlikely.
3. Low-growth development
Forest rehabilitation stillpossible but only with policymeasures based on allocationof land and rights rather thaneconomic incentives.
Poor policy implementation Effective policy implementation
Probable scenarios and their implications:
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FOREST
AREAWOOD
PROCESSINGPRICES &
COSTS
Revenue,Profit, TaxesIN
DICATORS
Prod. Volume
Forest Areas
PLANTATIONS
ENVIRON. COSTS
EMPLOYMENT
ALT. LAND USES
Data Sources
Neraca Sumber Daya Hutan
Statistik Kehutanan and BPS
Respected published sources
Value (monetized) measures
Timber harvest & processing
Environmental services lost
Production on alt. land uses
Physical measures Forest area & planting by forest type
Timber harvest & volume of processed wood
Gross Revenue, Tax Revenue, Profit
Numbers of people employed
Probable scenarios and their implications:Scenario Analysis Approach
The State of Indonesia forests
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Forest resources
Wood and wood products
Wood as a source of energy Future of non-wood forest products
Service functions of forests
Social functions of forests
The State of Indonesia forestsand forestry in 2020
Forest resources:
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Forest resources:The Current and Future State, by forest type and scenario
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Areas of
Different Types of Forest
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Forest in 2006 S1 S2 S3 S4
Millionha
Primary Forest Secondary Forest Plantations SILIN Non-Forested
Forest resources:
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2006 2008 2010 20122014 2016 2018 2020
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
MillionsofHectar
es
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison
Trend of Damaged Forest Area
S1S2S3S4
Forest resources:Trend of total damaged forest areas during the period 2006-2020
Forest resources:
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Forest resources:Trend of total primary forest areas during the period 2006-2020
2006 2008 20102012 2014 2016 2018 2020
25
30
35
40
45
MillionsofHectar
es
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison
Trend of Primary Forest Area
S1S2S3S4
Forest resources:
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Forest resources:The forest resource under Sustainable development scenario (S4)
8.5
13.3
10.1
5.3
31.0
10.5
5.5
5.3
10.7
5.6
3.9
12.2
0.63.3 3.21.7
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.
Production Forest
Protection Forest
Conservation Forest
Convertible ProductionForest
Million ha
Primary forest
Secondary forest
Not forested
TPTII System
Pulpwood Plantation
Community Timber Plantation
Timber Plantation
Wood and wood products:
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Wood and wood products:Annual projection of timber production 2007-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison
Trend of Timber Production
0
25
50
75
100
125
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Milli
on
sofM3
S1S2S3S4
Wood and wood products:
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Wood and wood products:Annual projection of pulpwood production 2007-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison
Trend of Pulpwood Production
0
25
50
75
100
125
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Millio
nsofM3
S1S2S3
S4
W d d d d t
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Wood and wood products:Product, consumption, exports, and growth
The annual production and consumption growths ofplywood, block board, sawnwood, and pulp would beincreased in the range of 10%-15%, 28%-34%, 17%-23%, and 9%-10%, respectively; while, their annualexport growths would be increased in range of 12%-
17%, 28%-34%, 17%-23%, and 7%to- 8%, respectively. Plywood, veneer, and block board industry would still
face a log deficit until the year of 2017, but, they couldexpand their capacities by 45% for plywood, veneer,and block board industry and by 32% for sawnwood
industry, if timber production level in the year 2020 isachieved.
Pulp industry could expand its installed capacity sincethe year of 2009 and it could be even tripled if timberproduction level in the year 2020 is achieved.
Wood as a source of energy:
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ood as a sou ce o e e gyProjection of Indonesia energy mix (National Energy Policy, KEN)
Non-wood forest products and forest services:
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pChanges in environmental costs and forest stock value 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Comparison of Value Indicators
Environmental Costs & Changes in Forest Stock Value
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
S1 S2 S3 S4NPVMillio
nsUSD
Environmental Costs
Change in Plantation Forest Stock (Value)
Change in Natural Forest Stock (Value)
Change in natural forest stocks implies change in natural forest capacity to provide NWFP andforest services so the future of non-wood forest products and forest services were addressedthrough estimating changes in natural forest stock values
Over the period 2006-2020, total changes in environmental costs and forest stock value rangesfrom US$3.91 billions to US$7.48 billions, respectively. Of which, +US$0.25 billions to
+US$0.29 billions is due to changes in natural forest stock value given the future state ofIndonesia forest resources in 2020
Social functions of forests:
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Social functions of forests:Direct employment generation over the period 2006-2020
Given the future state of Indonesia forest resources in 2020, there would be also direct employmentgeneration in the range of 675-836 thousands even though there may be substantially larger
numbers of people who are forest dependent and people who work in small-scale sawmills andother processed wood industries
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Comparing Employment Potential (but
not indirect jobs)
0
100
200
300
400500
600
700
800
900
1,000
S1 S2 S3 S4
AverageJobsp
eryear(in1000
Logging Ind. Timber plant. Pulpwood plant. Plywood ind.
Blockboard ind. Sawnwood ind. Pulp ind.
Recommended strategic actions and
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Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:
Strategic actions and policies focus on economic developmentand poverty alleviation options in degraded Production Forest,and promotion of environmental service delivery in degradedProtection Forest and Conservation Forest
Options for economic development and poverty alleviation:
Promoting community-company partnerships to open newkinds of benefit sharing for timber production to plantingmore trees for production/timber uses
Promoting Community forestry, social forestry, cooperativesand Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
Opening space for communities and smallholders to beinvolved in forest utilization and management with longertime horizons
Providing technical assistance on management, models, andcross-learning
Recommended strategic actions and
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Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:
Options for producing environmental services and benefits:
Rehabilitating steep slopes and riparian land
Supporting land re-classification that harmonizesslope/condition with function
Reconfirming steep areas as watershed protection forests, incollaboration with local stakeholders and governments
Considering high conservation value forests within theprotection forest areas as candidate areas for reallocationinto conservation areas, especially if they are part of criticalwildlife corridors or within the range of endangered orendemic species
Recommended strategic actions and
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Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:
Options for Improving Governance and Management:
Supporting Forest Monitoring and Assessment System(FOMAS) to improve transparency and rule of law
Building capacity to carry out law enforcement
Amending national laws and regulations to strengthen lawenforcement efforts
Prosecuting those behind major forest harvesting,processing and transportation crimes to improve lawenforcement
Reducing impacts of land clearing and the risks of fire Defining and marking boundaries to prevent encroachment
and allow community self-policing
Recommended strategic actions and
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Recommended strategic actions andpolicies:
Options for Improving Governance and Management:
Developing and implementing a mechanism in all levels ofgovernment to address concerns, resolve conflicts, processgrievances, settle claims, and compensate for loses
Supporting institutional development to help clarify roles andresponsibilities for district/province governments inmanagement, implementation, licensing, and monitoringactivities on forestlands
Capacity building in regional government forestrybureaucracies
Developing community-oriented and collaborativemanagement approaches to promote, establish, support andsustain dialogue and decision processes on the futureorganization and management of the forestry sector