indus basin floods: mechanisms, impacts, and management

7/27/2019 Indus Basin Floods: Mechanisms, Impacts, and Management

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Indus Basin FloodsMechanisms, Impacts, and Management

environment, natural resources, and agriculture / Pakistan / 2


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Indus Basin FloodsMechanisms, Impacts, and Management

Akhtar Ali


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Printed on recycled paper.

2013 Asian Development Bank.

All rights reserved. Published 2013.

Printed in the Philippines.

ISBN 978-92-9254-284-9 (Print), 978-92-9254-285-6 (PDF)Publication Stock No. RP125133-3

Cataloging-In-Publication Data

Ali, Akhtar

Indus basin foods: Mechanisms, impacts, and management

Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2013.

1. Floods. 2. Pakistan 3. Asian Development Bank.

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Contents

List o Tables, Figures and Boxes v

Foreword vi

Currency Equivalent vii

Weights and Measures vii

Abbreviations viii

Acknowledgments ix

Glossary x

Introduction 1

Context

he Indus Basin 3

Indus Basin Flood Mechanics 7

Major Floods in the Indus Basin 9

General 9

he Super Flood

Flood Policy, Planning, and Practices 16

Policy 6

Planning 8

Flood Mitigation Measures

Investment in Flood Management

Gaps in the Existing Flood Management Approach 23

Policy 3

Planning 4

Flood Mitigation Measures 4

Investment in Flood Management 8


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iv

Emerging Trends and Flood Management Options 29

raditional Flood Management Approach 9

Climate Change Is Impacting the Himalayan Region and the Indus Basin 3

Need to Adopt a Contemporary Flood Management Approach 3

Contemporary Flood Management Approach Outline 3

Lessons Learned and the Way Forward 42

Reerences 43

Appendices

. Worldwide Flood Events and Related Damage, 9 48

. Salient Features o the Indus Basin in Pakistan 49

3. Flood Limits o the Indus Basin Rivers 54. Flood-Related Institutions and their Functions 5


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v

List o ables, Figures, and Boxes

Tables

. Flood Damage in the Indus Basin, 95 9

. Flood Damage by Sector and Region,

3. Comparison o the Monsoon Rainall with Historical Means 3

4. Flood Peaks along the Indus and Kabul Rivers, 99- 4

5. Flood Management Institutions and their Responsibilities 7

6. National Flood Protection Plans 9

7. Levees and Spurs on Major Rivers

8. Spending or Flood Management in Pakistan

9. Te Main Change Drivers and Associated Flood Risks 3

Figures

. Worldwide Flood Damage Distribution, 9

. Asian Countries with High Flood Damage,

3. Flood-Induced Economic Losses in Asia 3

4. Map o the Indus Basin 5

5. Line Diagram o the Indus Basin in Pakistan 66. ypical Cross Section o a River Channel Protected by Levees 8

7. Flood Wave Propagation in the Indus River, 5

8. Te Indus Basin Flood Management Approach

9. Framework or a Contemporary Flood Management Approach 33

. Views o a Degraded Catchment in the Indus Basin in Pakistan 36

. A Standard Institutional Role in Eective Flood Management 38

. A ypical x-t Plane or a Flood-Protection Impact Pathway 4

Boxes. Major Water-Related Legislation in Pakistan 7

. Flood Protection Levees 5

3. Similarities between Pakistans Flood and Tailand s Flood 7

4. Te Mekong River Commission Flash Flood Guidance System 4


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vi

Foreword

More than 38 million people in the Indus River Basin in Pakistan depend on irrigated agriculture

or their livelihoods, with the cultivated areas encompassing about 4 million hectares in the

oodplains o the Indus River and its ve main tributaries. But problems such as rising population

pressures, climate change, and a continuous degradation o ecosystem services have resulted in

increased ood risks, which are urther exacerbated by inadequate ood planning and management.

Pakistan suered rom major oods between 95 and almost ood every 3 years.

Tese oods have kil led a total o 8,887 people, damaged or destroyed 9,8 vil lages, and caused

economic losses amounting to $9 billion. On average, the annual ood damage rom 96 to

was about % o the mean annual GDP. Te devastat ing ood caused the highest damage o allin terms o economic costs: about $ billion.

Te Government o Pakistan has been relying on a traditional ood control approach based on

structural measures, but the ood exposed the inherentweaknesses o this approach. A shit

rom traditional ood management to a contemporary holistic approach could more eectively

mitigate the ood risks, and provide an additional source o reshwater or productive use.

Tis report proposes such an approach, which would operate within an integrated water-resources-

management ramework.

Evolved rom 6 decades o ood management experience in the basin, this approach applies

scientic assessments that take people, land, and water into account. It also includes planning and

implementation realized through appropriate policies, enorceable laws, and eective institutions.

I am condent that, with proper adaptation to the Indus Basin realities, this report will serve as an

important guide or ood management in the Indus Basin.

Klaus Gerhaeusser

Director General

Central and West Asia Department

Asian Development Bank


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vii

Currency Equivalent(as o 3 August 3)

Currency Unit = Pakistani rupee (PRs)

PRs. = $.96

$. = PRs4.6

Weights and Measures

ha hectare

km kilometer

km square kilometer

m metermm millimeter

m3s- cubic meters per second


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Abbreviations

asl above sea level

ADB Asian Development Bank

CFMA contemporary ood management approach

CRED Centre or Research on the Epidemiology o Disasters

DNWP drat national water policy

FFC Federal Flood Commission

FFD Flood Forecasting Division

FPL ood protection levee

IWRM integrated water resources managementNDMA National Disaster Management Authority

PDMA provincial disaster management authority

PID provincial irrigation department

PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department

PRC Peoples Republic o China

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

viii


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ix

Acknowledgments

he author would like to thank the reviewers o this publication: Riaz A. Khan (ormer chairperson

o the Federal Flood Commission, Ministry o Water and Power, Government o Pakistan),

Yoshiaki Kobayashi (senior water resources specialist, East Asia Department, Asian Development

Bank), Ian W. Makin (principal water resources specialist, Regional and Sustainable Development

Department, Asian Development Bank), and Bart Schultz (emeritus proessor, Land and

Water Development, UNESCO-IHE Institute or Water Education).


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x

Glossary

aux he rise in water level (above normal) on the upstream side o a bridge or obstructioncaused when the eective ow area at the bridge or obstruction is narrower than the

natural width o the stream immediately upstream o the bridge or obstruction

barrage A gated hydraulic structure built across a river or other water course to control,regulate, and divert ows to canals or to acilitate navigation

bund An embankment constructed along a water course to protect an area, town, orstructure rom ooding

breaching A designated erodible earthen section upstream o a barrage that channels awaysection oodwaters in excess o the barrages design capacity. In an emergency situation, a

breaching section, sometimes called a use plug, is operated through controlled blasting.

deense bund See loop bund

exposure he total o human lie, assets, and/or physical inrastructure threatened orpotentially threatened with loss in the case o a particular hazard or peril

ash ood A sudden, localized ood o great volume and short duration, typically caused byunusually heavy rain, dam break, or cloud burst. Flash oods can reach their peak

volume in a matter o a ew minutes to a ew hours and oten carry large loads o

mud and rock ragments.

ood hazard A signicant rise o water level in a stream, lake, reservoir, or coastal area.

A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that maycause injury or loss o lie, property damage, social and economic disruption,

or environmental degradation.

use plug See breaching section

headworks A hydraulic structure on a waterway, smaller and more limited than a barrage,which diverts the river ow into canals

isohyetal map A map showing rainal l contours

loop bund A second line o bunds that saeguards property in case the rontline bunds ail orsuer ood damage. Sometimes reerred to as a deense bund.

risk he probability o harmul consequences, such as personal injury, loss o lie,damage to or loss o property, loss o livelihood, disruptions in economic activity, or

environmental damage. hese consequences can result rom an interaction between

natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. [Risk = unction

(Exposure + Hazard + Vulnerability)]

spur A levee or stone wall constructed transversely or obliquely to the ow direction todivert ooding at critical locations

vulnerability Conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental actorsthat increase community susceptibility to hazard impact


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Introduction

Context

Floods are created by unusual water-level rises in rivers or lakes, or by sea-level rises along coasts,

that overow their natural or art icial connements. A natural and random phenomenon, oods are

sparked by high rainall, storm surges, typhoons, dam ailures, glacial lake outbursts, or tsunamis.

In developing countries, oods are also linked to ever-increasing demographic pressures and economic

development, which have oten resulted in catchment degradation and waterway encroachment.

Further, poorly planned river basin development, awed land-use planning and practices, inadequate

legal and policy instruments, and poor governance acilitate the inappropriate exploitation oresources near rivers, lakes, and seacoasts by populations and governments, oten resulting in

devastating damage during oods.

Worldwide, oods were responsible or 84% o al l disaster-related deaths between and 5,

and or 65% o disaster-related economic losses between 99 and (ADB 9). Globally,

oods accounted or 3% o the 9,63 natural disasters that occurred in the th century (Guha-

Sapir et al. ). he 4,35 major oods during 9- killed 6.9 million people, aected

another 3.6 billion people, and caused economic losses totaling $55 billion (Appendix ). In Asia,

,65 ood disasters (4% o total disasters worldwide) resulted in 6.8 million deaths (98% o deaths

worldwide), displaced 3.4 bill ion persons (95% o aected persons worldwide), and caused $33 billion

in economic losses. Other ood-related losses include damage to ecosystems, land, and water quality

degradation, and an increased incidence o waterborne diseases.

Flood damage in Asia in the th century was estimated at 6% o global economic losses due to

oods (Figure ). he Peoples Republic o China (PRC) suered the highest economic losses,

ollowed by India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh (Figure ). From 965 to , total economic losses

due to oods in Asia showed an upward trend (Figure 3), which may be attributed to the greater

requency o oods, the acceleration o the economic development in ood-prone areas, or both.

1 Itisdifculttoquantifytherateofincreaseovertimeduetotheabsenceofcommonreferencevaluesforconvertingooddamagecostsintocomparableguresfordifferentyears.Becausethelastperiodmeasured(20052012)wasnotafulldecade,theaverageeconomiclossesperyearwerecomparedwiththoseofthepreviousperiods,showing$15millionperyearduring19952004and$20millionperyearduring20052012.


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IndusBasinFloods:Mechanisms,Impacts,andManagement

Figure 1 Worldwide Flood Damage Distribution, 19002012 ($ million)

Figure developed by the author using data from EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database.

See Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database.

http://cred01.epid.ucl.ac.be:5317/?after=2007&before=2012&continent%5B%5D=Asia&dis_group%5B%5D=

Natural&dis_subgroup%5B%5D=Hydrological&dis_type%5B%5D=Flood&agg1=dis_type&agg2=dis_type

(accessed 8 June 2013).

Oceania: 14,093

3%

Asia: 330,690

60%

Flood Damage

Americas: 94,506

17%

Africa: 6,848

1%

Europe: 104,184

19%

Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania

Figure 2 Asian Countries with High Flood Damage, 20002011 ($ million)

PRC = Peoples Republic of China.

Figure developed by the author using data from theAnnual Disaster Statistical Review 2011.

See D. Guha-Sapir et al. 2012.Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011: The Numbers and Trends. Brussels: Centre

for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Universit catholique de Louvain. http://cred.be/sites/

default/les/2012.07.05.ADSR_2011.pdf (accessed 15 September 2012).

0

10,0

00

20,0

00

30,0

00

40,0

00

50,0

00

60,0

00

Tajikistan

Japan

Indonesia

Myanmar

Economic Loss

Oman

Bangladesh

Pakistan

India

PRC


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3

Introduction

From 95 to , major oods in Pakistans Indus River Basin killed a total o 8,887 people,

aected 9,8 villages, and caused a cumulative direct economic loss o about $9 billion.

Indirect losses that were not quantied included health hazards, land and water quality degradation,

temporary disruption o transport, and the slowing down o economic growth.

Drawing on lessons rom several decades o ood mitigation experience in the Indus Basin, this

report aims to provide managers and policy makers in Pakistan with guidance on ood management.

Its key objectives are to (i) present a structured overview o the awed traditional ood management

procedures in Pakistan; (ii) identiy various constraints, gaps, and opportunities associated with these

procedures; and (iii) suggest new, practical ood management solutions adapted to the prevailing

conditions o the Indus Basin.

The Indus Basin

he Indus River is a major transboundary river in Asia with nine tributaries. Its ve tributaries on the

let bank are the Beas, Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers. he Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej are also

transboundary rivers, with upper catchments in India. he main right bank tributaries are the Gomal,

Kabul, Swat and Kurram rivers. he Kabul River is a transboundary river that ows through Aghanistan

2 OthersincludetheAmuDarya(Afghanistan,Turkmenistan,andUzbekistan),Amur(PeoplesRepublicofChina[PRC]andRussianFederation),Brahmaputra(Bangladesh,PRC,andIndia),Euphrates(Iraq,Syria,andTurkey),Ganges(BangladeshandIndia),Mekong(Cambodia,PRC,LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic,Myanmar,Thailand,andVietNam),andtheTigris(Iraq,Syria,andTurkey).

Figure developed by the author using data from theAnnual Disaster Statistical Review 2011.

See D. Guha-Sapir et al. 2012.Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011: The Numbers and Trends. Brussels: Centre

for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Universit catholique de Louvain. http://cred.be/sites/

default/les/2012.07.05.ADSR_2011.pdf (accessed 15 September 2012).

Figure 3: Flood-Induced Economic Losses in Asia ($ million)

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

Period

19651974 19751984 19851994 19952004 20052012

0


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and Pakistan. he Swat River joins the Kabul River near Charsadda town, about 5 km upstream o their

common outall into the Indus River, near the town o Nowshera, in Pakistans Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Province. A ew hill torrents join the Indus River between the Jinnah and Guddu barrages. he Indus

Water reaty (96) between India and Pakistan allocates the water rom three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi,

and Sutlej) to India and rom the three western rivers (Chenab, Indus, and Jhelum) to Pakistan. Figure 4 is

a map o the Indus Basin while Figure 5 is a line diagram depiction.

he Indus River is about ,8 kilometers (km) long, with ,68 km in Pakistan. Its alluvial plain

area is about 7, km, while its deltaic area is about , km. It originates in the ibetan

tableland at Singi Kahad spring, on Kailas Parbat (mountain) near Mansarwar Lake. It then passes

through the Himalayan range, and collects runo rom the Hindu Kush and Sulaiman ranges.

Its annual water runo is about cubic kilometers, and sediment discharge is approximately

billion kilograms yearly (Pakistan Water Gateway; accessed 9 November ).

he Indus drainage basin covers an area o about ,4, square kilometers (km) stretching

rom Aghanistan through the PRC, India, and Pakistan. One o its tributaries, the Jhelum River,

originates in the Nanga Parbat range and drains an area o 3,68 km

. One o its other tributaries, theChenab River, originates in the Indian state o Himachal Pardesh, at an elevation o 4,9 meters (m)

above sea level (asl), and drains an area o 3,437 km .

Based on the stream hydrology and morphology, the Indus River can be broadly divided into

three segments: (i) the upstream segment, rom the Singi Khahad spring down to Jinnah Barrage;

(ii) the midstream segment, between Jinnah and Guddu barrages; (iii) and the downstream segment,

rom Guddu Barrage to the Arabian Sea. he upstream segment is largely a hilly catchment area;

the midstream segment is an upper oodplains area dominated by a braided pattern o channels and

tributary inows; and the downstream segment is a lower oodplains area and has a at topography, a

meandering channel pattern and deltas. aking into account the basins geophysical and hydroclimatic

characteristics, Hewitt (989) urther divides the upper Indus Basin catchment into our zones: zone

one - more than 5,5 m asl; zone two - 4,55,5 m asl; zone three, 3,4, m asl; and zoneour, ,3, m asl.

he climate o the Indus Basin plains is semi-arid to arid, with average temperatures ranging between

and 49 Celsius. Mean annual ra inall varies between 9 millimeters (mm) in the downstream

segment to 5 mm in the midstream segment. In contrast, it is more than , mm in the

catchments in the upstream segment. Mean evaporation ranges between ,65 mm and ,4 mm in

the midstream and downstream segments.

he Indus Basin in Pakistan has three main reservoirs (Mangla, arbela and Chashma),3 9 barrages,

inter-river link canals, about 56, km o canals, and , km o water courses. he inter-

river link canals transer water rom the Indus and Jhelum rivers to the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej

rivers. he Upper Chenab Canal and Marala-Ravi Link Canal transer ows rom the Chenab Riverto the Ravi River to eed areas previously irrigated by Ravi and Sutlej rivers. Overall, the Indus Basin

irrigates about 4 million hectares (ha) o land in Pakistan. Appendix provides key data regarding

the irrigation, drainage, and ood-protection inrastructure in the Indus Basin in Pakistan.

3 TheChashmaReservoirplaysaninsignicantroleinoodmanagementduetoitslimitedstoragecapacityanditsimportanceforirrigation.


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Introduction

Figure 4 Map of the Indus Basin

Source: Author, modied from an existing map of Pakistan.


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Figure 5 Line Diagram of the Indus Basin in Pakistan

Source: Developed by the author with the assistance of ADBs cartography unit.


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Introduction

Indus Basin Flood Mechanics

In the Indus Basin, monsoonal rains are the most important ood-causing actor, ollowed by the size,

shape, and land-use o the catchments, and by the conveyance capacity o the corresponding streams.

he monsoon weather system originates in the Bay o Bengal, and the resultant depressions oten giverise to heavy rains in the Himalayan oothills. he monsoon rains all rom June to September, and

are generally intense and widespread. he weather systems rom the Arabian Sea (seasonal lows) and

the Mediterranean (westerly waves) also occasionally produce destructive oods in the basin.

he Indus River at Jinnah Barrage, in the upper reach, drains an area o 86, km with an

average annual rainall o 76,7 mm. he topography is steep, the hill slopes are degraded,

and there is only one major reservoir on this section o the river, at arbela Dam. Intense rains and

steep topography quickly generate high ows and high sediment yields in streams. Late-season

rains, exacerbated by high soil moisture rom earlier rains and by the large size o the drainage area,

generate high runo volumes. he arbela Reservoir cannot handle late-season runos because o

earlier-season lling o reservoir or irrigation and energy generation. he same priorities are true or

the Mangla Reservoir, on the Jhelum River, and so during a ood, the reservoir can only absorb waterto the extent o the storage space available at the time.4

In the catchment, apart rom the loss o oodwater due to evaporation and seepage, the overow rom

the streams ebbs as the ood wave recedes. However, as in the case o the Swat River in , high

velocities and ow energy cause erosion and damage inrastructure such as bridges, roads, and houses.

In addition, the catchments lack surace storage capacity, so they cannot absorb the runo, and,

thereore, pass on sharp ow peaks and high sediment yields to the downstream channels.

In the plains areas o the middle river reach, direct water ows rom the catchments become

insignicant; instead, it is the tributaries ows into the Indus River that dominate. he ash ows

rom the right-bank tributaries and stream ows rom the let-bank tributaries urther elevate

the ood peaks o the Indus. In the plains o the middle and lower river reaches, oods engenderchanges in the river channels and the oodplain; and, in turn, the changes in the r iver channels and

the oodplain aect the ood requency. Floods are also aected by exogenous processes such as

climate change; endogenous processes such natural changes in r iver morphology; and anthropogenic

processes such as channelization, regulation, and water diversions. Not all changes are undesirable,

but the development o agricultural irrigation acilities and other inrastructure has altered the river

morphology and signicantly reduced the oodplain area available or accommodating high oods.

In the 9th century, the oodplain comprised almost the entire area between the Indus River and its let-

bank tributaries. Economic development in the oodplain, however, has since necessitated the construction

o levees along the rivers to protect the inrastructure there. he levees construction divided the oodplain

into two parts: an active oodplain within the levees and an inactive oodplain outside o the levees

(Figure 6). oday, the active oodplain contains the main river channels and accommodates the bulk o

the oodwaters. he distances between the let- and right-bank levees vary rom to 5 km, depending on

the locations o the levees; and the heights o the levees vary rom to 5 m. he inactive oodplain, which

is an area o major settlements and high economic development, including major irrigation inrastructure

that supplies water to over 4 million ha., is only ooded when the levees are breached.

4 Forexample,TarbelaReservoirattenuatedtheooddischargepeaksoftheJuly1988oodby21%,thepeaksoftheJuly1989oodby26%,andthoseoftheAugust1997oodby43%.However,itdiminishedtheoodpeakintheSeptember1992oodbyonly2%,astheoodoccurredlateintheseason,whenthereservoirwasalreadyfull(AsianicsAgro-Dev.International,2000).Inthe2010ood,theManglaReservoirreducedtheoodpeaksby35%,whileTarbelareduceditby28%.


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In the midstream segment, the likelihood that tributary peaks will coincide with ooding in the

Indus River is high because o the longer ood-peak periods. he construction o bridges, levees,

and barrages or ow diversion has constricted the waterways and caused channel aggradations.

he encroachment on waterways near towns has urther constricted river sections, and the ood

situation is worsened when ood peaks in the tributaries coincide with ood peaks in the Indus River.

In the downstream segment, several sections o the Indus River now ow at a higher elevation than

that o the adjoining lands. By virtue o this topography, the overow along the let bank o the

Indus River in Sindh Province never returns to the main river channels. Instead, most o it passes

through hundreds o kilometers o developed irrigated and populated areas on the way to the

sea, with the exception o the portion o the ow that evaporates into the air or seeps into the

groundwater. Moreover, the at topography and slow drainage in this segment result in long periods

o ood inundation.

Figure 6 Typical Cross Section of a River Channel Protected by Levees

Source: Author.

Flood

protection

levee

Flood

protection

levee

Floodplain within the levees

River channel

Flood level

Overbank flowFloodplainoutsidelevee

Floodplainoutsidelevee


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9

Major Floods in the Indus Basin

General

As mentioned, oods occurred between 95 and in the Indus Basin, causing cumulative

direct economic losses o about $9 billion (in dollars), killing 8,887 people, and damaging or

destroying a total o 9,8 villages (within an area o around 446, km ). able provides a

breakdown o the damage per year during that period. he data indicate that the ood caused

the greatest damage, although the ooded area was smaller than those in 956, 973, 976, and 99.

his may have been due to the timing o the ood, locations o the embankment breaches, and the

signicant increase in economic development that had occurred in the oodplains by .

Table 1 Flood Damage in the Indus Basin, 19502011

Year

Direct losses

($ million)a Lost Lives Affected VillagesFlooded Area

(km2)

1950 227 2,910 10,000 17,920

1955 176 679 6,945 20,480

1956 148 160 11,609 74,406

1957 140 83 4,498 16,003

1959 109 88 3,902 10,424

1973 2,388 474 9,719 41,472

1975 318 126 8,628 34,9311976 1,621 425 18,390 81,920

1977 157 848 2,185 4,657

1978 1,036 393 9,199 30,597

1981 139 82 2,071 4,191

1983 63 39 643 1,882

1984 35 42 251 1,093

1988 399 508 100 6,144

1992 1,400 1,008 13,208 38,758

1994 392 431 1,622 5,568

1995 175 591 6,852 16,686

1998 na 47 161 na

2001 na 201 na na

2003 na 230 na na2010 10,056 1,600 na 38,600

2011 66 516 38,700 9,098

km2 = square kilometer; na = not available.

a In 1995 US dollars, except for the gure for 2010, which is given in October 2010 dollars.

Sources: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power, Federal Flood Commission. 2006. Flood Protection Plan, 2006. Islamabad;

M.S. Sardar, M. A. Tahir, and M. I. Zafar. 2008. Poverty in Riverine Areas: Vulnerabilities, Social Gaps and Flood Damages. Pakistan Journal

of Life and Social Sciences. 6 (1). pp. 2531.


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Historically, ood damage in the active oodplain (i.e., within the levees) occurred in all medium-

to-high oods (see Appendix 3 or the ood limits). Levee breaches occurred only in exceptionally

high oods, but they caused especially heavy casualties and economic losses. Although constrictions

at bridges and barrages, with the resultant uxes, were the primary reasons or these breaches, the

damage was aggravated by the at topography, slow drainage, and the long periods o inundation.

1955 ood. From 4 to 6 October 955, mm o rain ell in the town o Dalhousie, mm inthe city o Sialkot, and 5 mm in the catchments o the Ujh and Basantar rivers, covering almost

the entire catchment area o the Ravi River. Further, a weather depression in the Bay o Bengal,

combined with moist air rom the Arabian Sea, resulted in an estimated 5 mm o rain in the Ravi

catchment during the ollowing days. As the earlier rains had a lready saturated the catchment, the

additional 5 mm generated a huge ood.

he 955 ood was the highest on record or the Ravi River, with peak discharges o 7,84 cubic

meters per second (m3s-) at Madhopur Headworks,5 8,66 m3s- at Ravi Siphon, and 5,34 m3s- at

Balloki Headworks. It breached the ood embankments o the BambanwalaRaviBedianDipalpur

Link Canal, upstream rom Ravi Siphon, and at Shahdara Bridge, a suburb o Lahore. he PunjabIrrigation Department estimated that ood discharges o 7,334 m3s- passed through the breaches at

Ravi Siphon and 8,495 m3s- through the breaches at Shahdara Bridge.

1973 ood. Intense rainal l o 34 mm generated ood peaks up to 8,33 m3s- at KhankiHeadworks and ,75 m3s- at Panjnad Barrage, both on the Chenab River, inundating 3.6 million

ha in several districts with waters up to a height o about 6 m. Wheat and cotton crops were

devastated. Punjab lost 7, cattle and 55, houses, and 474 people perished. he total ood

damage was estimated at $.39 billion.

1976 ood. Monsoon rainall o 579 mm during July and September 976 on the Indus catchmentsresulted in ooding o up to 4,4 m3s- at the Jinnah Barrage and 33,97 m3s- at the Guddu

Barrage, both on the Indus River. he ood kil led 45 people and aected another .7 millionpeople, inundated 8 mill ion ha o land, and aected 8,39 villages, damaging , houses.

otal economic losses were estimated as $.6 bill ion.

1988 ood. An average o 4 mm o rainall occurred on the catchments o the Ravi, Sutlej,and Chenab rivers on the 36 September. Along the Ravi River, the rainall generated a ood o

3,48 m3s- in the town o Madhopur; 6,48 m3s- at Jassar Bridge (estimated); 6,566 m3s- at Ravi

Siphon; 3,479 m3s- in Shahdara Bridge; and 9,855 m3s-at Balloki Headworks. A ood ow o about

4,48 m3s- passed through a breached section at Shahdara Bridge. he ood deluged million ha o

agricultural land and irrigated crops, killing 5 people and causing economic damage totaling about

$4 million.

1992 ood. he 99 monsoon caused widespread rain on the catchments o the Indus, Jhelum,and Chenab rivers. he continuous 5-day rainall during 7 September 99 was the highest in the

history during the same period. he rainall led to ooding in the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers.

An extreme ood ow o 7,96 m3s-was recorded on the Jhelum River at Rasul Barrage. With the

Mangla and arbela reservoirs already lled to capacity, the excess water at these spots also resulted

in widespread ooding. he breaching o ood protection levees (FPLs) exposed large areas to the

5 Onecubicmeterpersecond(m3s-1)isequivalentto35.3146667cubicfeetpersecond(ft3s-1).


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11

MajorFloodsintheIndusBasin

ravages o the ood, which inundated 3, villages, damaged 96, houses, aected 4.8 million

people, and killed more than , (World Bank 996). he Government o Pakistan estimated

the damage at about $.4 billion, including $.5 billion worth o damage to public inrastructure.

he hardest hit were the agriculture and communications sectors, or which the cost o ood damage

repair was estimated at a total o $396 million.

1994 ood. Widespread rains rom July to September 994 caused ooding in the Indus and Sutlejrivers. he rainall on 3 July, at the start o the monsoon (6 mm in the town o Murree, 9 mm in

Risalpur town, and 3 mm in Karachi) saturated the soil and reduced its water absorption capacity.

High oods occurred as a result o subsequent rains, including 33 mm in Jhelum town on 5, 7, and

8 July, and 47 mm in Sialkot on 8 July. he governments damage assessment showed that, as o

September, the oods had killed 386 people, damaged 557, houses, and resulted in the loss o

4, catt le and o about 7, ha o crops.

Floods in 2005 and 2006. he Kabul and Chenab rivers experienced high ooding in 5 and6. In July 5, the ood peaks in the Chenab were ,987 m 3s- at Jammu, in India; 9,77 m3s-

at the Marala Barrage; and ,4 m3

s-

at Khanki Headworks. A ood peak o 4,785 m3

s-

in theKabul River combined with water released rom the arbela Dam into the Indus River to generate

a ood peak o 4,866 m3s- at Jinnah Barrage. hese two oods resulted in the death o 59 people

and aected about million ha o land in 7 districts.

Post-2010 oods. Since the major ood in , two more oods have occurred in Pakistan, thoughthey caused less damage. In August and September , the rainall in Sindh Province and a par t

o Balochistan Province was .5 times higher than during the same months in the past. his high

rainall, combined with poor drainage and a prolonged period o ooding, aected 9.6 million people

in an area o more than 7, km. A total o , people lost their homes in 7 districts in

Sindh and 5 districts in Balochistan (ADB, Government o Pakistan and World Bank ). he

heavy monsoon rains also caused a widespread loss o lie, livelihoods, and inrastructure across

southern Punjab, northern Sindh, and northeastern Balochistan during August, September, andOctober . he rains and the resultant ood aected 4.9 million people (with 57 reported

dead) and damaged more than 6, houses; they also ruined crops within an area o 5, ha

(National Disaster Management Authority ; United Nations Oce or the Coordination o

Humanitarian Aairs ).

The 2010 Super Flood

The Damage

he oodwhich aected al l the provinces and regions o Pakistan6killed ,6 people,

caused damage totaling over $ billion, and inundated an area o about 38,6 km

. his oodwas Pakistans most damaging on record. Sindh Province, the most downstream section o the

Indus Basin, suered the highest damage (43% o the total), ollowed by Punjab (6%) and Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa (%). he damage to inrastructure in the province o Balochistan was estimated at

6% o total national losses. Damage to national inrastructure accounted or % o the total. In the

country as a whole, the oods damaged nearly million houses and displaced a population o over

million.

6 Thisincludesfourprovinces(Punjab,Sindh,KhyberPakhtunkhwa,andBalochistan)andfourfederallyadministratedterritories.


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Flood damage occurred mainly in the agriculture and livestock sector (5%), ollowed by housing

(6%) and transport and communications (3%). he damage done to agriculture rises to 53% o the

total i irrigation inrastructure is included. he prolonged inundation o large areas o cultivated land

resulted in massive losses in the agriculture sector. able shows the ood damage breakdown

by sector and region.

Table 2 Flood Damage by Sector and Region, 2010 ($ million)

Flood Damage by Sector Flood Damage by Region

Sector Damage % Region Damage %

Agriculture and livestock 5,045 50.2 Balochistan 620 6.2

Education 311 3.1 FATA 74 0.7

Energy 309 3.1 Gilgit- Baltistan 49 0.5

Environment 12 0.1 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1,172 11.7

Finance sector 674 6.7 National 1,095 10.9

Governance 70 0.7 Northeast Pakistan 86 0.9

Health 50 0.5 Punjab 2,580 25.7

Housing 1,588 15.8 Sindh 4,380 43.6

Irrigation and ood protection 278 2.8

Private sector and industries 282 2.8

Transport and communications 1,328 13.2

Water supply and sanitation 109 1.1

Total 10,056

FATA = Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Note: Percentages may not total 100% because of rounding.

Source: ADB, Government of Pakistan, and the World Bank. 2010. Pakistan Flood 2010. Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment

Report. Islamabad, Pakistan.

Extreme Rainall

High evaporation over the Indian Ocean (Pakistan Meteorological Department ) and the

oceanic phenomenon La Nia caused severe monsoon weather in (National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] b; Riebeek ). Wildres in the Russian Federat ion

and precipitation in Pakistan also coincided with an unusually strong polar jet stream that generated

unprecedented levels o moisture over the Himalayas (Marshall ; NOAA a, as cited in

Mustaa and Wrathall ). his resulted in widespread high rainall in the Indus Basin in July

and August , with rainall recorded in all our provinces.

A 4-hour rainall on 9 July , or instance, ranged rom mm to 8 mm at 8 stations inthe Indus Basin, with an average o 8 mm. Rainall was recorded at 43 mm in the city o Mirpur

Khas, in Sindh Province, and at 73 mm in Zhob, Balochistan. he next day, a 4-hour rainall

o 4 mm was recorded in the city o Kamra, Punjab, and 89 mm in Ghari Dopatta, Northeast

Pakistan. he average rainall or the 8 Indus Basin stations on 3 July was estimated at 9 mm in

July and 89 mm in August (able 3). he July and August raina ll was almost double the historical

levels or the same months.


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Table 3 Comparison of the 2010 Monsoon Rainfall with Historical Means (mm)

Station

Mean July Rainfall

(19622010)

July 2010

Rainfall

Mean JulyAugust

Rainfall

(19622010)

JulyAugust

2010 Rainfall

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Gilgit (KP) 16.2 53.0 31.1 112.0

Muzaffarabad 359.0 359.4 576.0 758.0

Peshawar Airport (KP) 46.0 402.0 na 535.0

Saidu Sharif (KP) 152.0 471.0 189.0 757.0

Risalpur (Punjab) na 433.0 na 795.0

Kakul (KP) 263.0 389.0 519.0 524.0

Cherat (KP) 93.0 388.0 187.0 618.0

Ballakot (KP) 372.0 327.0 650.0 528.0

Dir (KP) 154.0 317.0 301.0 609.0

Lower Dir (KP) 56.0 295.0 na 448.0

Dera Ismail Khan (KP) 80.0 147.0 110.0 282.0Muree (Punjab) 364.0 579.0 665.0 848.0

Faisalabad (Punjab) 117.0 244.0 204.0 468.0

Multan (Punjab) 60.0 55.0 93.0 222.0

Mianwali (Punjab) na 528.0 na 703.0

Sibi (Balochistan) 37.0 56.0 65.0 149.0

Jacobabad (Sindh) 42.0 132.0 154.0 182.0

Sukkur (Sindh) 42.0 45.0 81.0

Average 147.0 290.0 271.0 479.0

Ratio to mean 2.0 1.8

KP= Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; mm = millimeter; na = not available; ratio to mean = ratio of [column 2 to column 1 and column 4 to

column 3].

Source: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Defense, Pakistan Meteorological Department. 2010. Rainfall Statement July 2010.www.pakmet.com.pk/FFD/index_les/rainfalljuly10.htm

High Flood Flows

he widespread rain generated high runo in the Chenab, Indus, Jhelum, Kabul, and Swat rivers.

Further, ash oods7 rom the Kurram River and hil l torrents rom the Sulaiman Mountains

contributed to the Indus ood peak. On the Swat River, a ood peak o 7,646 m3s- was observed

at the Amandara Headworks, about 6% higher than its design discharge capacity o 4,83 m3s-.

Downstream, at the Munda Headworks, the ood peak was 8,495 m3s- almost 7% higher than

its design capacity o 4,955 m3s-. his ooding at the Amandara and Munda headworks was

unprecedented: it severely damaged the Amandara Headworks and washed away the Munda Headworksaltogether. Downstream rom the Munda Headworks, a ood peak o 4,48 m3s- rom the Kabul River,

combined with the ood peak rom the Swat River, increased the total peak ow o the Kabul River at

Warsak Dam to 3,59 m3s-.his exceptionally high ow in the Kabul severely damaged the town o

Nowshera and urther contributed to the ooding o the Indus River downstream rom there.

7 Flashoodsdifferfromnormaloodsinthataashoodwillhave(i)asharphydrograph,withsteeprisingandfallinglimbs;and(ii)ashortertimeofconcentration.Itisalsodifculttopredicttheiroccurrence.Flashoodsmayresultfromintenserainfallondegradedcatchmentsordambreaks,orfromaglacialoutburst.Theycanhaveserioussocioeconomicandenvironmentalconsequences.


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On the Indus River, the water ow into the arbela Reservoir (3,645m3s-) was equivalent to a

ood event with a return period estimated at more than 3, years. However, the ood inow was

within the design capacity o the dam, which was constructed to handle the probable maximum ood

levels (able 4). he observed peak o the outow hydrograph (7,4 m3s-) at arbela indicates that

the reservoir-routing eect had reduced the ood peaks by 8% (6,54 m 3s-). At Jinnah Barrage, a

ood peak o 6,546m3s-was observed, and an estimated 4,87 m3s- o discharge passed through

the designed breach section upstream rom the barrage. hese gures indicate a total ood peak o

3,833 m3s-at Jinnah Barrage, which was almost equal to a -year return period (3,894 m3s-),

and about 5% higher than the barrages design capacity (6,9 m3s-).

Table 4 Flood Peaks along the Indus and Kabul Rivers, 19292010 (in m3s-1)

Location

Design

Discharge

100-Year

Floods

2010 Flood Historical Flood Events

Peak

Return

Period

(year) Year Peak

Tarbela inows 42,476 18,491 23,645 3,461 1929 19,317

Tarbela outow na na 17,104 na na na

Kabul at Nowshera na 6,173 13,592 >10,000 1965 6,173

Jinnah 26,902 30,894 30,833(4,287)a

100 1942 25,967

Chashma 26,902 26,448 29,356 250 1942 22,988

Taunsa 31,149 25,797 30,724(3,539)a

211 1958 22,333

Guddu 33,981 37,719 32,529 40 1976 33,305

Sukkurb 25,486 36,529 32,060 46 1976 32,890

Kotri 24,778 27,241 27,323 101 1956 27,779

m3s-1 = cubic meters per second; na = not available.

a The values within the parentheses indicate an estimated discharge that passed through the breach sections at upstream of the Barrage

structure. The tribunal report includes estimated discharges through breaches. See M. A. Shah, A. S. Shakir, and S. Masood. 2011.

A Rude Awakening. Report of the Judicial Flood Enquiry Tribunal, 2010. Lahore: Judicial Enquiry Commission.

b The original design capacity of Sukkur Barrage was 42,476 m3s-1.

Sources: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power, Federal Flood Commission. 2011. Annual Report 2010. Islamabad.www.ffc.gov.pk/download/ood/archieve/Annual.report2010.pdf?bcsi_scan_97e98328e2b67804=0&bcsi_scan_lename=Annual.

report2010.pdf (accessed 22 March 2013); 2011; Government of Pakistan, Supreme Court of Pakistan. 2011. Enquiry Report of

Flood Commission Appointed by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Islamabad; Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Defense, PakistanMeteorological Department, Flood Forecasting Division. Flood Peak Data, 2010. www.pmd.gov.pk/FFD/cp/oodpage.asp (accessed

9 September 2010).

At Chashma Barrage, the ood peak o 9,356m3s- (a return period o 5 years) topped the

barrages design capacity o 6,9m3s-. his ood peak at the barrage was the highest since itsconstruction in 97, and nearly % higher than its design capacity. However, the ood passed

through the structure without signicant damage.Farther downstream, aunsa Barrage sustained the

worst ood damage in Punjab province. With a total ood peak o 3,74 m3s-,the ood peak was

7,85 m3s- through the barrage structure. An estimated additional discharge o 3,539 m3s- passed

through the breach section. his was higher than a -year return period ood by about %;

however, it was lower than the barrages design capacity o 3,49 m 3s-. he ood peak at Guddu

Barrage remained within that barrages design capacity as well, but the design capacity o Sukkur

Barrage was exceeded by about 5% and o Kotri Barrage by %.


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During the ood, the arbela Reservoir attenuated its peak inow discharge o 3,36 m3s-

to 7,4 m3s- at outow. Similarly, Mangla Reservoir, on the Jhelum River, attenuated its peak

inow o 8,665 m3s- to 6,48 m3s- at the outlet. arbela Reservoir reduced its ood peak by 8%

and Mangla by 35%, thereby playing a major role in lowering the downstream ood peaks at the

Jinnah and Panjnad barrages. he Mangla Reservoir also signicantly reduced the contribution o the

Jhelum River to the ood ow at Guddu Barrage.

he Indus River experienced two distinct back-to-back ood peaks in the reach between Jinnah and

aunsa barrages, with an average lag time o about 56 days (Figure 7). he lag time between the

peaks varied rom days in the upper river reaches to 3 days in the lower river reaches. he two

peaks merged at Kotri Barrage, the most downstream structure on the Indus River. From upstream to

downstream, the lag time o the rst ood wave was days between arbela Reservoir and Chashma

Barrage, day between Chashma and aunsa barrages, 7 days between aunsa and Guddu, 4 days

between Guddu and Sukkur, and 7 days between Sukkur and Kotri.

Figure 7 Flood Wave Propagation in the Indus River, 2010 (in m3s-1)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

26-Jul-10

28-Jul-10

30-Jul-10

1-Aug-10

3-Aug-10

5-Aug-10

7-Aug-10

9-Aug-10

11-Aug-10

13-Aug-10

15-Aug-10

17-Aug-10

19-Aug-10

21-Aug-10

23-Aug-10

25-Aug-10

27-Aug-10

29-Aug-10

31-Aug-10

2010

flood

pe

aksatbarrages

along

the

Indus

River

Date

Tarbela Jinnah Chashma Taunsa Guddu Sukkur Kotri

m3s-1 = cubic meter per second.

Source: Author, using data from Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Defense, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Flood ForecastingDivision. Flood Peak Data, 2010. http://www.pmd.gov.pk/FFD/cp/oodpage.asp (accessed 9 September 2010).


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Flood Policy, Planning, and Practices

Policy

National Water Policy

Pakistan does not have an approved water policy but there is a drat national water policy that

recognizes the need or appropriate ood management, including (i) the continued construction

o ood-protection acilities and the maintenance o existing inrastructure, (ii) a review o the

design and maintenance standards o existing ood protection structures, (iii) the establishmentand promotion o ood zoning, and enorcement o appropriate land use, (iii) optimized reservoir

operating rules, (iv) improved and updated ood manuals, (v) eective use o nonstructural measures,

and (vi) the creation o ood response plans (Government o Pakistan, Ministry o Water and

Power 6). he national water policy should also include ood risk planning, regulatory zones,

and watershed management in the uplandsall o which could have positive impacts on

ood management.

Legal Aspects

Although Pakistan does not have a comprehensive ood management law, or river-plains regulatory

laws, existing water and land-use laws do address some ood-related legal issues. For example, theIndus River System Authority Act (99) denes the institutional setup or the distribution o surace

waters among the provinces, while the Provincial Water Accord (99) deals with the apportionment

o Indus River waters among the provinces. he Punjab Irrigation and Drainage Authority Act

(997) allows the participation o water users in the operation, maintenance, and management o

minor canals and distributaries. In 99, the Council o Common Interest, which decides on resource

allocation among the provinces, concluded the rst ormal agreement or the apportionment o river

water, known as the Water Apportionment Accord 99. hen the Indus River System Authority Act

(99) was enacted; this law guides the year-round distribution o river and reservoir waters among

the provinces (see Box ).

Institutionswelve organizations participate in ood mitigation and management work at the national and

provincial levels in various capacities (able 5). hese organizations can be broadly divided into

the ollowing areas: (i) ood-related planning; operation, maintenance, and management o major

inrastructure; (ii) ood orecasting and early warnings; and (iii) rescue and relie operations.

However, most o these organizations have other core responsibilities and play only a subsidiary role

in ood management.


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FloodPolicy,Planning,andPractices

Table 5 Flood Management Institutions and their Responsibilities

Organization Responsibility Status

Pakistan Commissioner

for Indus Waters Coordinates with India on oods in the transboundary rivers National

Water and Power Development

Authority (WAPDA), Ministry of

Water and PowerOperates and manages the Mangla and Tarbela reservoirsand manages hydrometeorological data National

Federal Flood Commission (FFC),

Ministry of Water and Power

Prepares and coordinates implementation of national ood protec-tion plans, and conducts oversight of ood forecasting, warning,and management National

Pakistan Meteorological

Department (PMD) Forecasts rainfall and ood, and issues warnings National

Flood Forecasting Division, PMD Conducts model simulations, forecasts ood, and issues warnings National

Emergency Relief Cell,

Cabinet Division Coordinates relief operations at the national level National

National Disaster Management

Authority (NDMA)

Conducts oversight and coordination of disaster management,including rescue and relief operations, at the national level National

Provincial irrigation departments

Constructs, manages, operates, and maintains barrages and oodprotection works, and implements protective measures Provincial

Provincial disaster

management authorities

Coordinates with other provincial departments, including for rescueand relief operations Provincial

District administrations Conducts relief and rescue operations at the district level Provincial

Other relief organizations Manages post-ood relief operations at the provincial level Provincial

Pakistan Army

Assists the civil authorities in real-time ood ghting and rescue

and relief operations National

Source: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power, Federal Flood Commission. 2011. Annual Report 2010. Islamabad.

Water and Power Development Authority Act, 1958Territorial Waters and Maritime Zones Act, 1976

Indus River System Authority Act, 1992

Environmental Protection Act, 1997Provincial Water Accord, 1991Balochistan Ordinance 1980Balochistan Water Supply Regulation 1941Balochistan Pat Feeder Canal Regulation ,1972Balochistan Canal and Drainage Ordinance, 1980Balochistan Coastal Development Authority Act, 1998Balochistan Irrigation and Drainage Authority Act,

1997

Balochistan Groundwater Rights AdministrationOrdinance, 1978

North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) Canal andDrainage Act, 1873

NWFP Irrigation and Drainage Authority Act, 1997Punjab Minor Canals Act, 1905Punjab Minor Canal (Nor th-West Frontier Province

Amendment) Act, 1948

Punjab Soil Reclamation Act, 1952Punjab Canal and Drainage Act, 1873Punjab Water Users Association Ordinance, 1981Punjab Irrigation and Drainage Authority Act, 1997Sindh Water Users Association Ordinance, 1982Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority Act, 1997Sindh Irrigation Act, 1879

Box 1 Major Water-Related Legislation in Pakistan


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he Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was established in 959 under the

Ministry o Water and Power to implement and manage major water-resource and energy projects

around the country and is responsible or the operation o the Mangla and arbela reservoirs during

oods.

Created in 977 under the Ministry o Water and Power, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC)

is responsible or ood management planning, coordination, overseeing implementation, and

allocating unds.

he Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) operates under the Ministry o Deense, and is

responsible or weather and ood orecasting. he Flood Forecasting Division, within the PMD,

concentrates exclusively on orecasting oods.

he National Disaster Management Authority (NMDA) was created in 7, and the provincial

and national disaster authorities in 8. hese agencies are responsible or the implementation

o national-disaster management policies. However, in the case o ooding, they also coordinate

post-ood activities, including rescue-and-relie operations and the activities o donors, governmentagencies, and nongovernment organizations.

he provincial irrigation departments (PIDs) manage irrigation inrastructure, oversee the operation

o barrages, and maintain the ood protection levees (FPLs).

able 5 provides a summary o the roles and responsibil ities o the various ood management

agencies, while a more detailed description can be ound in Appendix 4.

Planning

Medium- and Long-Term PlanningMedium- and long-term ood management planning occurs at the national and provincial levels, and

includes developing and implementing ood protection plans. he FFC developed and implemented

three -year national ood protection plans between 977 and 7 (able 6). he three plans

implemented a total o more than , ood protection schemes, and disbursed about PRs8 billion.

he three plans included ood management actions such as (i) the execution o ood-protection

schemes, mainly the construction o spurs and levees to train streams and to protect adjoining

land rom erosion; and (ii) the procurement and installation o a ood-orecasting system and

oodplain mapping. A ourth -year national ood protection plan is being prepared by the

national government.8

8 Adraftversionofthefourthnationaloodprotectionplan(20072016),largelyanextensionofthreeearlierplans,wasnotapprovedbythenationalgovernment.Theauthorhasbeentaskedwithpreparingarevisedversionofthefourthnationaloodprotectionplan.


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Table 6 National Flood Protection Plans

Description Main Activities

Total Cost

(PRs billion)

NFPP-I(19771987)

A total of 311 ood-protection schemes completed, mainly river-training works.

1.6

NFPP-II(19881998)

A total of 438 ood-protection and river-training schemes completed.Procured and installed a 10-cm weather radar and a meteor burst tele-communication system (69 high-frequency radio sets), and carried outprefeasibility studies, as well as oodplain mapping of some areas.

8.6

NFPP-III(19982008)

A total of 463 ood-protection schemes completed. Procured andinstalled 24 high frequency radio sets, 20 remote stations, and a 10-cm

weather radar. Upgraded existing 10-cm weather radar in Lahore, anddeveloped an early warning system.

7.6

Draft NFPP-IV The NFP-IV is being prepared. The proposal tentatively includes nish-ing the work left over from earlier plans; improving the operation ofmajor reservoirs; updating the ood operation manual; determining theextent of the oodplain; and improving ood forecasting, ash oodmonitoring, and capacity building.

30.0

cm = centimeter; NFPP = national ood protection plan.Source: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power, Federal Flood Commission. 2006. Flood Protection Plan, 2006. Islamabad.

Emergency Response Planning

Every year, beore the onset o the monsoon, all provinces, in relation to their river jurisdictions,

as well as the ederal government in its eld o operations, conduct a pre-ood planning exercise to

review the conditions o major river inrastructure such as reservoirs, barrages, and levees, and decide

on advance actions to prepare or an eective response to probable oods. Most o the organizations

listed in able 5 participate in such emergency-response planning. Flood preparedness planning

ensures that (i) the ood orecasting and early warning system is unctional; (ii) community-based

early warning systems are in place or the issuance o timely and eective ood warnings; (iii) strictvigilance is exercised and sucient resources are deployed to strengthen critical levees and barrages;

(iv) sae havens are identied in case evacuation is required; (v) emergency relie supplies (ood,

odder, and medicine) and temporary shelters are arranged; (vi) transport or evacuation is made

available; and (vii) rehearsals and dril ls are conducted.

he other key aspects o ood preparedness include an agreement on the roles and responsibil ities

o various government and nongovernment organizations involved in ood management, as well

as measures to ensure that standard operating procedures are known at the management and eld

levels o each participating organization. Other important aspects include the (i) deployment o

resources, (ii) provision o basic needs, (iii) minimization o disruptions during oods, (iv) eective

ow o inormation, (v) coordination, and (vi) the ast restoration o essential acilities in case o

ood damage.

Based on their experience with earlier ood disasters, provincial and district governments also prepare

inventories o available resources to identiy gaps to be lled beore ooding occurs. Finally, search

and rescue teams are recruited and trained, and their rapid mobilization and deployment ensured.


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Flood Mitigation Measures

Structural Measures

he major ood-protection inrastructure comprises 6,8 FPLs and ,4 spurs that have been built

since 96 to protect the main towns and important inrastructure (able 7). hese FPLs now covermost o the critical points along the river reaches. River-training works have been installed at key

locations to control actively meandering channels and to save erodible beds and banks rom erosion.

Table 7 Levees and Spurs on Major Rivers

Province

Levees

(km)Spurs

(no.)

Punjab 3,332 496

Sindh 2,422 46

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 352 186

Balochistan 697 682

Total 6,803 1,410

km = kilometer.

Source: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power,

Federal Flood Commission. 2011.Annual Report 2010. Islamabad.

he Mangla and arbela reservoirs are used to regulate ood ows, to the extent o their available

capacities at the time o a ood. However, because the operational priorities o these reservoirs are or

irrigation supplies and energy production, their ull potential or ood management cannot be realized.

he reservoirs operating rules also place structural saety rst, with little room or exibility.

he existing 8 barrages and a number o bridges on the rivers aect ood transmission through thedownstream channel systems. he deliberate operation o breaching sections o barrages to protect

the structures also impacts ood ows at downstream.

Nonstructural Measures

Flood orecasting and early warning system.he PMDs Flood Forecasting Division plays a keyrole in ood orecasting and early warnings. Its ood orecasting and early warning system comprises

(i) -centimeter, S-band, quantitative precipitation-measuring Doppler radar acilities in Lahore

and at Mangla Dam that remotely sense rainal l over the catchments o the Beas, Chenab, Ravi,

and Sutlej rivers; (ii) meteor burst communications or the transmission o the hydrometric data;

(iii) 5-centimeter weather surveillance radar acilities in the cities o Dera Ismail Khan, Islamabad,

Karachi, Rahim Yar Khan, and Sialkot; and (iv) the Indus River system mathematical model, whichcomputes stream hydraulics, including stage and discharge hydrographs along the r ivers, to estimate

the areas vulnerable to inundation as a basis or the issuance o ood warnings.

Flood fghting and post-ood operations. he movement o the ood wave is closely monitoredalong the rivers, and appropriate actions to regulate the ow are taken at critical locations as needed.

Government agencies such as the PIDs, WAPDA, and the Pakistan Army Corps o Engineers

participate in real-time ood ghting. he PIDs and WAPDA regulate their respective structures,


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barrages, and reservoirs ollowing standard operating procedures. he Pakistan Army assists the

PIDs and WAPDA in operating the breaching sections, and the district governments in rescue and

relie operations.

Rescue and relie operations are eld actions organized at the district level. hey include rescuing

people rom ooded areas and providing temporary shelter, ood, and health care with a view to

preventing epidemics.

he post-ood restoration and recovery phase star ts as soon as the ood recedes rom the aected

areas. Completing recovery takes a longer time: 3 years, depending on the nature and extent o the

damage. Figure 8 shows the Indus Basin ood management approach currently in practice.

Figure 8 The Indus Basin Flood Management Approach

Source: Author.

Infrastructure

Flood planning

Land-useplanning andenforcement

Floodforecasting andearly warning

Vulnerability,exposure, and

risk assessment

Coordinationand

responsibilities

Materials,equipment, and

supply

Identificationof safe havens

Floodpreparedness

Flood managementapproach

Flood flowregulation and

protection

Rescue andrelief

operationsFlood fightingand post-flood

operations

Damagerestoration and

recovery

Resettlement

Inspection


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Pakistan suered cumulative ood damage o $. billion rom 95 to , and spent over

$. billion to mitigate the eect o the oods during this period (able 8). A large amount o this

spending was borrowed rom the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.9

here was alsobilateral nancial and in-kind support, which is not detailed here. he FFC () reports that the

government spent PRs.6 billion ($63 million at the September rate) o its own resources.

his investment helped to support the construction o ood levees o about 4 km in length and

3 new ood-diversion structures; capacity building or the FFC, WAPDA, and the PMD; and the

development o ood orecasting and telemetry systems. However, a major proportion o the spending

was used or emergency relie and the repair o ood damage. No comprehensive basin-scale ood

management plan was ever prepared.

Table 8 Spending for Flood Management in Pakistan ($ million)

Description Funding Source Amount

1986 Flood Protection Sector Project ADBGovernmentBeneciaries

124.024.4

3.9

1988 Flood Protection Sector Project World BankADB

44.039.0

1992 Flood Protection Sector Project World BankADB

Provinces

139.078.041.6

1998 Flood Protection Sector Project ADB 100.0

2010 Flood Emergency Reconstruction ADB 649.0

Total 1,242.9

ADB = Asian Development Bank.

Sources: Government of Pakistan, Federal Flood Commission. 2011. Annual Report 2010. Islamabad; AsianDevelopment Bank. 1992. Completion Report: Flood Damage Restoration Project in Pakistan. Manila; 1998.

Completion Report: Flood Protection Sector Project in Pakistan. Manila; 1999. Completion Report: Flood

Damage Restoration Project in Pakistan. Manila.

9 AsianDevelopmentBankstotalnancingwasaround$990million:$124millionfortheFloodProtectionSectorProjectin1987;$39millionin1989fortheimplementationofagovernmentoodprotectionplan;$78millionforooddamagerepairin1992;$100millionfortheFloodProtectionSectorProjectIIin1998;and$649millionforemergencyreconstructionin2011,intheaftermathofthe2010ood.TheWorldBankprovidedassistanceforrecoveryfromdamagebythe1988and1992oods.

10 EstimatedfromdataprovidedbyFFC(2010).11 Morethan1,000irrigationanddrainagechannels,over500kmofroads,300kmofoodlevees,andabout3,000schools

wererestoredbetween1989and1992.


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Gaps in the ExistingFlood Management Approach

Policy

Pakistans drat national water policy includes six pillars o ood management (see earlier section on

national water policy), but these seem to comprise a plan rather than a policy. here is a gap between

the issues as described in the issues section and recommended actions to address the issues. he drat

policy ocuses on a ew traditional actions, and provides no guiding principles. For example, the issues

section denes proper planning as that which not only minimizes ood loss but also conserves surpluswater or productive use. Yet these important aspects are missing rom the policy principles.

he drat policy recognizes the ineectiveness o FPLs, and the heavy loss o lie and property

as a result o their requent breaching, but recommends the same structural approach to ood

management that has long been used. It proposes optimizing the operation o the two existing

reservoirs, but does not provide any guidance on the priority to be assigned to irrigation, ood

control, and energy generation, or on the need or new reservoirs.

he countrys water-related acts (Box ) evolved rom the need or drainage, groundwater, and

water supply or irrigation and other uses. hey do not provide sucient guidance on ood-related

issues. hese acts were drated or specic needs at particular times. As a result, various provisions

overlap and, in some cases, override each other. A more robust water law should be created through

an appropriate amalgamation and modication o the provincial acts, and possibly embodied in one

water law at the national level. his, however, would have some legal implications that would need to

be addressed under the constitutional provisions.

Water governance, as dened by the Global Water Partnership () and the United Nations

Development Program (4), is either weak or works on an ad-hoc basis in Pakistan. Integrated

water resources management (IWRM) is largely missing, and so is integrated ood management.

he involvement o more than a dozen organizations during and ater oods has so ar been

advantageous. But proactive and integrated ood management requires a ull-time, basin-scale, and

eective organization that could prepare and implement ood policy, lay down a plan or the Indus

Basin, implement eective interventions, and coordinate eorts to minimize ood risks with theprovincial governments and other stakeholders.

12Watergovernancereferstothepolitical,social,economic,andadministrativesystemsinplacefordevelopingandmanagingwaterresourcesandfordeliveringwaterservices.(GlobalWaterPartnership2002).


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Finally, although the national as well as provincial governments oversee ood management, disaster

response is constitutionally a provincial area o responsibility, and the national government has no

constitutional basis or intervening in disaster response unless requested to by a provincial government

(Haider ). Nevertheless, the national government did receive considerable criticism or its slow

response to the ood.

Planning

In the Indus Basin, planning or the medium and long term has resulted in three ood protection

plans created by the FFC (able 6). hese plans largely ocus on building new FPLs and

strengthening the existing ones, restoring damage rom previous oods, and establishing a ood

orecasting and early warning system. he plans lacked IWRM and basin-scale approaches, so they

could not serve as oundations or comprehensive Indus Basin ood management. hese plans did

not ull l the requirements o broader planning, such as indicating ways to use natural resources in a

sustainable manner, protecting the environment, and eectively reducing ood risks. hey a lso lacked

sucient scope or strategic planning, which should have included guidance on the allocation oresources needed or the realization o the plans objectives (Armstrong 986).

he governments ood management planning was rarely mainstreamed into its development policy,

and too little attention was paid to linkages among oodplain resources; livelihood generation; and

the risks aecting oodplain populations, particularly their vu lnerability due to widespread poverty.

Nevertheless, the planners may have understood that absolute saety rom oods is a myth, and

that ood-risk mitigation could be the better approach or many locales. Even with its operational

diculties and nancial constraints, the governments emergency planning has been more responsive

to the needs o the oodplain populations.

Flood Mitigation MeasuresStructural Measures

Flood design limits. Structures such as levees, barrages, and bridges can only provide protection andsae disposal or oods that are l imited to the sizes or which these structures are designed. hereore,

it should be recognized that oods over and above the design capacity o structures would cause

damage. During the ood, the peaks in the Swat River at Munda Headworks, in the Kabul

River in Nowshera, and in the Indus River at aunsa Barrage were much higher than the historical

peaks, with -year return periods.3 Yet the ood management approach currently in use has no

provisions or oods exceeding design limits. Due to changes in the patterns o ooding and in the

behavior o streams, the design limits and criteria or major river structures, as well as structures in

rural and urban areas, should be reviewed.

Flood protection levees. FPLs provide the bulk o the ood protection inrastructure in the IndusBasin. So ar, the height o these levees remains arbitrarily xed at an embankment height o .8 meters

(6 eet), which is higher than the previously observed high ood mark in the basin. However, due to

morphological changes in the rivers, ood stages do not necessarily have a l inear relationship with the

quantity o oodwater. hus, scientic data are needed to accurately determine the optimal levee height.

13 Theexistingbarragesthatweredesignedfor100-yearreturnperiodperformedbetterinoodprotection.


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GapsintheExistingFloodManagementApproach

Additional ly, these levees have been constructed gradually over 56 decades under various programs,

and thus dier in design and construction quality. At some locations, construction has caused

sedimentation and aggradations o the riverbed, which may require a continuous increase in the

heights o the levees (Box ). Further, wetting channels, which were built along the FPLs to test the

levees against water leaks through the embankment, are now largely nonoperational. Consequently,

the structural weaknesses in the FPLs cannot be determined beore a ood. Other challenges include

the FPLs remote locations, inadequate maintenance, and continuous degradation due to natural and

human actors.

Flood damage costs might have been much higher, though, without the earlier investments in

the levees. Given that more than 6, km o levees provide the bulk o ood protection; their

importance should not be underestimated. In addition, the Bund Manual, a 978 document that

describes the planning, design, construction, operations, and maintenance o ood protection levees,should be thoroughly reviewed, with a view to incorporating the latest knowledge concerning

levee saety.4

Barrages. Some barrages and bridges have low ood capacities. For this reason, these structurescreate constrictions, which cause afuxes upstream that damage FPLs and river-training works. he

high seasonal variability o river ows due to upstream development, most notably on transboundary

rivers, causes disproportionate sedimentation upstream rom the barrages, obstructing smooth ows

and thus reducing discharge capacity. Most o the purposely built breaching sections, which were

identied and constructed 5 years ago, can no longer operate because o morphological changes

in the river channel and economic activities around the ood-disposal channels downstream. Given

that a barrage can only be designed or oods o a certain return period, the importance o breaching

sections must be emphasized, and alternative solutions must be ound or these locations. he Punjabgovernment has already initiated an upgrade and modernization o the provinces barrages and

appurtenant structures. It may be appropriate to reexamine the Punjab governments solutions, and to

explore alternative ways to repair ineective breaching sections.

14GovernmentofSindh,IrrigationandPowerDepartmentIrrigationSecretariat.1978.BundManual.Karachi,Pakistan.

Box 2 Flood Protection Levees

The experiences of Viet Nam and the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) demonstrate that, because of riverbedsedimentation, there is a continuous need to increase the heights of ood protection levees. The Lower Yellow River,in the PRC, with levees 1,000 kilometers in length, has risen to levels that are on average about 5 meters higher

than the levels of the land outside its dikes. This phenomenon is often referred to as a hanging river. The riverbedis 13 meters higher than street level in Kaifeng and 20 meters higher in Xinxiang. The river experienced 50 major

oods, 1,500 dike breaks, and 20 changes of course in roughly 2,500 years. Ian B. Fox notes that ood protectionlevees are a long-practiced technology, but he considers them an ineffective protection against bigger oods.

Sources: A. Borthwick. 2005. Is the Lower Yellow River Sustainable?Oxford, UK: Society of Oxford UniversityEngineers;I. B. Fox. 2003. Floods and the Poor: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor to the Negative Impacts ofFloods. Manila: Asian Development Bank.


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GapsintheExistingFloodManagementApproach

plan or critical locations with several options, and by discussing the plan with the communities and

other stakeholders beore the monsoon season.

In the lower Indus Basin, at topography and slow drainage have caused ooding to spread over a

large area or prolonged periods, thus causing urther damage. Another aspect that complicates

ood management is the transboundary nature o the r ivers. Historical oods in the Indus Basin

have revealed such problems as (i) delayed or insucient rain-and-ood inormation regarding

the catchments o the upper riparian zones, which does not allow adequate reaction time; and

(ii) deorestation in the upper catchments o the Indus Basin, contributing to sharp peaks and heavy

sediment loads in some o the tributaries. hese challenges have not been appropriately actored into

ood management.

Most o the irrigation engineerswho are responsible or barrage operation, FPLs, and ood

managementlack the appropriate skills or river engineering and mechanics. It is thereore dicult

or them to assess structural weaknesses and make critical decisions concerning barrage operation

and embankment breaching during high ows. he provincial irrigation departments (PIDs) should

develop the necessary engineering skills among the relevant sta members.

Finally, the current approach considers ooding solely as a burden, so the goal o protection has

dominated ood management operations. his approach needs to be reassessed, with a view to

transorming the burden into a water asset. A comparison o Pakistans ood with the

hailands ood shows many similarities and lessons to be learned (Box 3).

Box 3 Similarities between Pakistans 2010 Flood and Thailands 2011 Flooda

Pakistans 2010 Flood Thailands 2011 Flood

Economic loss $10.0 billion $45.7 billion

Cause of ooding Abnormal monsoon rains amounting todouble the rainfall amount as compared

with the 50-year average annual rainfall(natural factor)

Abnormal monsoon rains amounting tove rainstorms as compared to an annualaverage of three (natural factor)

Operational priority of reservoirs Irrigation was the operational priority ofthe Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs, withood protection a lower priority (policyissue)

Irrigation or ood protection was theoperational priority of the multipurposereservoirs (policy issue)

Level of preparedness Poor anticipation of the ood disasterscale (operational level issue)

Poor anticipation of the ood disasterscale (operational level issue)

Drainage time Estimated at 710 days (TaunsaBarrage) for midstream segment and1420 days for downstream segment(Sukkur Barrage)

It was known in advance by a couple

of days that around 410 km3

of waterwould pass through the Taunsa, Gudduand Sukkur barrages and of course the

water would not queue up for severaldays and wait.

Drainage capacity of the East andWest Corridor is 500 million cubicmeters a day against an expected inowof 10 km.It required at least 20 days for drainage(Simple mathematics)

It is unrealistic to assume that 10 billioncubic meters of water could be releasedat a rate of 500 million m3 a day while

the rest of the water would queue up.

Effect on the dikes Dikes could not bear sustainedood pressure for several days, resultingin terrible damage (technical andoperational issue)

Pressure started to build behind thedikes, resulting in terrible damageafter overtopping (technical andoperational issue)

continued on next page


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Box 3 Similarities between Pakistans 2010 Flood and Thailands 2011 Flooda

Pakistans 2010 Flood Thailands 2011 Flood

Other factors Planning, policy and management playeda role (see Shah, Shakir and Masood,

2011)

Planning, policy and management haveall played a role in this disaster. However,

land use and deforestation also played afundamental role.

Public response Policy, institutional role and coordinationwere largely criticized.

The whole system, including policy,institutions and coordination, need to bereconsidered.

Integrated Water Resource

Management (IWRM)

Not yet initiated Government agencies reluctant toadopt IWRM

Knowledge of ood

management techniques

Pakistan has reasonable knowledgeof modeling and experience in oodmanagement

Thailand has adequate knowledge ofmodeling, experience and common sensebut has to use them wisely

Flood planning No ood planning existed except for pro-tection of main reservoirs and barrages.There needs to be a mindset based onscientic knowledge and acceptance

of risks.

The mindset that everything can beprotected needs to change. Each sectorspriorities need to be identied, and somesectors have to sacrice.

Water expressway The Indus Basin has a water highway inthe form of the Indus River. This highwaymust be upgraded to a water expressway.

A water expressway must be built toallow water to ow out.

Other recommendations A comprehensive policy and planningand implementation of IWRM at thebasin scale is needed

The mindset of politicians, engineersand developers regarding appropriate

water management in the context ofupstream and downstream linkages need

to change.

a Source for information on Thailands 2011 ood: A. Anukularmphai. Interview by M. Wojciechowska-Shibuya. Maxims News Network.www.maximsnews.com/news20120714FloodsThailandCRBOM11207140801.htm (accessed 1 April 2013).

Reference: A. Anukularmphai and M. Wojciechowska-Shibuya. 2012. The 2011 Floods in Thailand and the Role of IWRM. CRBOM Small

Publications Series No. 46. Central Java, Indonesia: Center for River Basin Organizations and Management (CRBOM). July.


A large part o the total investment o $. bill ion in ood management between 95 and was

spent on repairing ood damage, developing a ood-orecasting system, and building new levees at

various locations. his reactive approach to ood management has led to high recovery costs, and to

ad hoc measures that are not sustainable. he emergency nature o recovery operations sometimes

may be associated with inappropriate use o unds. he government must thereore choose a proactive

approach to ood management over the traditional method o paying the high cost or ood disasters.

table continued


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Emerging rendsand Flood Management Options

Traditional Flood Management Approach

In the Indus Basin, the traditional ood management approach is centered on ood protection levees

(FPLs), which have inherent limitations in their design and maintenance. hey cannot ensure the

protection o the basin against exceptionally high oods. Barrages have been provided with purposely

built use plugs (i.e., breaching sections) to bring the water level down to their design limits or saety.

Due to the development along the downstream oodways, however, the operation o the breachingsections causes severe ood damage, and is no longer easible in many places.

he traditional approach also ails to address the sharp ood peaks in the upper reach catchments, as

well as the ineective drainage o oodwater in the lower oodplains. Due to the steep topography o

the Swat and Kabul catchments and deorestation, runo generates and dissipates quickly, producing

high ood peaks during the monsoon. Further, there are no reservoirs on these rivers or on the Indus

downstream o the Kabul-Indus conuence. hereore, ood peaks rom these two tributaries are not

attenuated, and they directly add to ood peaks o the Indus River. Inecient drainage in the lower

oodplains causes widespread destruction due to prolonged inundation periods, as happened in ,

, and .

he large area and sca le o ooding also add to operational diculties, including the ineciency

o inormation dissemination and rescue and relie operations. In the absence o eective ood

management institutions, sociopolitical pressures may also limit competent decision making during

a ood.

he traditional ood management approach lacks preemptive solutions, operating only when danger

becomes real and imminent. It is ad hoc in nature, and does not comprehensively consider the basins

hydro-climatic realities, physical settings, and development needs. Moreover, it lacks eective

policies, planning, and institutional backing.


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Climate Change Is Impacting the Him

indus basin floods: mechanisms, impacts, and management

Documents