Industry 4.0 - OpportunitiesandChallengesfortheCaribbean

“Westandonthebrinkoftechnologicalrevolutionthatwillfundamentallyalterthewaywelive,workandrelatetooneanother.Initsscale,scopeandcomplexity,thetransformationwillbeunlikeanythinghumankindhasexperiencedbefore.”KlausSchwabFounder&ExecutiveChairman,WorldEconomicForum

Cheaper, faster, better, democratic, decentralized

Industriesthathavealreadybeendisrupted:•  Media–TV,radio,music,newspapers,advertising

(youtube,spotify,itunes,twitter,googleads,facebook)

•  Transportation(zipcar,uber,lyftàsoon:autonomousvehicles)

•  Employment(LinkedIn,Fiverr,Upwork,Facebook)•  University(Udacity)•  Accomodation(Airbnb)•  Retail(Amazon,Etsy)•  Movietheatres(Netflix,Amazon)

Caribbean 4.0

Industriesthatwillbefurtherdisrupted,ofimportancetotheCaribbean:

•  Tourism-AR/VR/gamification,robotics•  Financialservices-blockchain,fintech•  Music-blockchainforIP,AI•  Agriculture-bigdata,AI,robotics,IOT,geneediting,blockchain

•  BusinessProcessOutsourcing-AI•  Construction-BIM,3Dprinting•  Retail,somecreativeindustries-3Dprinting•  Logistics-robotics,IOT•  Energy-blockchain

Caribbean 4.0

Solutionofpublicproblems:•  Deliveryofpublicservices-cloudcomputing,AI,VR,AR

•  Congestion-satellites,IOT,AI•  Crime-remotesensing,facialrecognition,AI•  Healthservices-AI,geneediting•  Education-AR/VR,gamification

Implications

• Adaptfast–orbedisrupted:capacitytoabsorb,use,recombinethesetechnologiestoinventnewproducts/applicationsthatcanenhancethecompetitivenessofexistingandfutureindustries

• Connectivity:requiresuniversalaccess,largerbandwidthsà5G,aswellasaccess/affordableservices

•  Talent:requiresmorequantity,pervasiveskillsatalllevels

Internet Users, 2008 - 2016 (as % of total population)

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2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CARIBBEAN OECD

Getting Tech ready

In10yearstime,60%ofjobswillbecompletelynewandbasedonICTinfrastructure–countriesintheregionneedtogetreadyby:

•  Buildingandimprovinguponexistinginfrastructure•  Increasinginternetpenetration•  Facilitatingtechnologytransferinawiderangeofsectors,fromtourismtomanufacturing

•  Increasingeducationandtrainingintheuseoftechnologies,especiallyintheareaofcybersecurity

•  Encouraginginvestmentanddigitaltechnologyadoptioninfirms•  MovingtowardsLegislativeFrameworksforDigitalIdentity,harmonizedpolicyforuseofdigitaldata(attheregionallevel)

Hythe, Maxwell Main Road Christ Church, Barbados.

Tel: 1. 246. 627. 8500 • Fax: 1 .246. 429. 8869 Email: competecaribbean@iadb.org

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Caribbean 4.0 Potential Disruptors

•  Blockchaintechnologycanbenefittheagriculturalsectorandexportsthroughproductcertification(origin,quality,authenticity),thusincreasingvaluefornichemarketproductssuchascocoa.[Example–EYWineBlockchainsolution]

•  VirtualTourism–VRasamarketingplatforminthetourismspace,aswellasincomegenerationforlocalVRdevelopers[Example-https://www.dingole.com/projects/]

•  GlobalServicesSector-MorejobstobecreatedinICTandotherhighvalueareas(computerprogrammers,coders,appdevelopers;dataanalysts;socialmediastrategists;datascientists)thatcanbeprovidedtocompaniesabroad[Examples-https://technewstt.com/pr-animation-scores/;http://www.fullcircleanimation.com/showreel/]

•  Satellitebasedgeo-positioningsystemsandsensorscollectingbigdatatodetectnutrientsandwaterinsoil,aswellastheuseofdataappliedtopredictionstoincreasecropyields,leadingtolessfoodimportsandincreasedexports

Potential Disruptors Cont’d

• Dataandmachinelearningcanbeusedtopredictcrimesandpreventthembyidentifyingunderlyingcorrelationsandcauses.Thiscanbedoneusingcrime-mappingplatforms;smartlights;facialrecognitionsoftwareandCCTVsthatcoverblindspotsandusehighqualityimagery;onlinestorageandmanagementofsurveillancedataetc.

• ArtificialIntelligencecanbeutilizedtomanageGovernmentprocessessuchastaxmanagement,predictingnaturaldisastersandaidinginrescueefforts,auditingefficiency,etc.

Most existing jobs will disappear in 20 years! Implications for the Caribbean

•  Jobswillbereplacedbycomputerandmachinelearning

•  Almostallfieldofworkwillbeaffected,fromcashieringtoaccounting.

•  Jobstobereplaced(almost)totallybytechnologyinthenearterm(next10-15years)–Cashiers,call-centres;manufacturingandassemblyplantworkers;drivers,constructionworkers,farmers;securityworkers;tellers

•  Jobstobedisplacedinthelongerterm(25-50years)–Legalassistants;lawyers;accountants;landSurveyors;FinanceAssistance;amongothers.

However,estimatesof%ofexistingworkforceatriskduetoemergingtechvarywidely

•  FreyandOsborne(2013)–47%ofjobscouldbeeliminatedbysmarttechwithin20years

•  McKinsey&Co.(2017)–49%ofthetimewespendworkingcouldbeeliminatedbycurrenttech

•  PwC(2017)WorkforceoftheFuture–37%ofrespondentsconcernedaboutautomationputtingjobsatrisk

Moremoderateanalystsexpecttheanumberofasyetunforeseenopportunitiestosamethingtocomeabout,attheconvergenceof“STEMpathy”work(wherethetechnicalskillsofscience,technology,engineering,andmathmeetthehumanisticskillsofempathyandconnection)èImpossibletopredictwhere

ICT Trends