industry statistics review presented by aama 2009

7/29/2019 Industry Statistics Review Presented by AAMA 2009

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AAMA/WDMA 2008-2009U.S. National Statistical

Review and Forecast

FENESTRATIO

PRODUCTS


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2008/2009 U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast

Copyright 2009- Co-published by:

Researched and Edited in March 2009 by:

Ducker Worldwide, LLC1250 Maplelawn Dr.

Troy, MI 48084

(248) 644-0086www.ducker.com

Introduction

Market estimates in the U.S. Industry Statistical Review

and Forecast are driven not only by statistics published by

the Census Bureau and other construction statistics

organizations, but also from primary interviews with

leading manufacturers of windows, doors and skylights, as

well as component suppliers. All forecasts are based onprojections of construction activity as of March 2009 and

appropriate usage factors and tabulations developed by

Ducker Worldwide LLC, which is solely responsible for the

data. Any questions on the Review or its contents should

be directed to Ducker.

Ducker has been conducting residential and nonresidential

market studies continuously since 1982 for the American

Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA). From

1978 to 1981, studies were conducted for the Sealed

Insulating Glass Manufacturers Association (SIGMA-

(currently referred to as IGMA). Ducker has been

conducting the update study of the U.S. residential and

nonresidential window and door markets for AAMA in

combination with the Window and Door Manufacturers

Association (WDMA) since October of 1994.

The U.S. Industry Statistical Review and Forecast is

published annually. Additional and much more detailed

information on window, door and skylight markets is

contained in the (2007) Study of the U.S. Market for

Windows, Doors and Skylights, and The Distribution of

Residential and Nonresidential Windows and Doors in the

2007 U.S. Market, as well as individual Statistical Review

and Forecast market overview reports for each of the 11

major U.S. regional markets. All reports are available

rom AAMA, WDMA, or Ducker.

Contents

Residential Construction Activity

Privately owned housing 1New housing by type of structure 1

Residential construction activity 2Improvement expenditures 3Manufactured housing shipments 4Existing home sales 4

Residential Product Statistics

Prime windows 5-6Storm doors 7Skylights 7Patio doors 8Entry and passage door usage 9-10Door forecast 11

Nonresidential Product Statistics

Entry and passage door usage 10Door forecast 11Insulating glass statistics 12

Nonresidential Construction Activity

Contract awards 13-14Regional construction 15Window usage 16-17

U.S. Map of Geographic Division 18

American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA)1827 Walden Office Square, Suite 550

Schaumburg, Illinois 60173

Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774www.aamanet.org

Window & Door Manufacturers Association (WDMA)401 North Michigan Avenue

Chicago, Illinois 60611

Tel: (312) 321-6802www.wdma.com
http://www.ducker.com/http://www.ducker.com/http://www.aamanet.org/http://www.aamanet.org/http://www.wdma.com/http://www.wdma.com/http://www.ducker.com/http://www.wdma.com/http://www.aamanet.org/


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1

Review of New Residential Construction Activity

Total New Residential Housing(Thousands of Units)

New Residential Construction 2007 2008% Change

'08 vs. '072009(F)

% Change

'09(F) vs. '08

SINGLE FAMILY STARTS 1,046 622 -40.5% 360 -42.1%

MULTI FAMILY STARTS 309 284 -8.3% 150 -47.1%

MFD. HOUSING SHIPMENTS 96 82 -14.3% 65 -20.7%

TOTAL 1,451 988 -31.9% 575 -41.8%

Total housing starts continued to decline in 2008, dropping to the lowest level since the Census Bureaubegan tracking the data in 1959. Single family starts showed the largest drop, declining by 40.5 percent

to 622,000 units. Multifamily housing starts and manufactured home shipments showed a moremoderate decline, but these segments declined by 8.3 and 14.3 percent respectively. Regionally, theWest showed the steepest decline in conventional starts during this timeframe at 38.9 percent. TheNortheast showed the most resilience and declined by only 15.3 percent due to a higher percentage ofmultifamily in this market. The Midwest and South declined at a similar rate to the national total at 35.8and 33.4 percent respectively. For 2009, starts are expected to continue to decline by nearly 42 percentas both single and multifamily starts decline significantly. The residential new construction market isforecast to improve in 2010.

New Housing by Type of Structure

Total New Housing Starts2003 - 2012F

(Thousands of Units)

Units % Units % Units % Units % Units %

2003 1,979 100% 131 7% 1,848 93% 1,498 76% 350 18%

2004 2,087 100% 131 6% 1,956 94% 1,611 77% 345 17%

2005 2,215 100% 147 7% 2,068 93% 1,716 77% 353 16%

2006 1,918 100% 117 6% 1,801 94% 1,465 76% 336 17%

2007 1,451 100% 96 7% 1,355 93% 1,046 72% 309 21%

2008 988 100% 82 8% 906 92% 622 63% 284 29%

2009F 575 100% 65 11% 510 89% 360 63% 150 26%

2010F 770 100% 70 9% 700 91% 525 68% 175 23%

2011F 1,005 100% 75 7% 930 93% 710 71% 220 22%

2012F 1,150 100% 80 7% 1,070 93% 830 72% 240 21%

Single Family Multi-FamilyYear

Total ShelterManufactured

HousingTotal Conventional

Source: History: U.S. Bureau of the CensusForecast: Ducker Research Company, Inc.

RESIDENTIAL


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Review of New Residential Construction Activity

Total New Residential HousingSingle and Multi-Family Starts

2003 Through 2012F(Thousands of Units)

Year Total

2003 1,848 163 8.8% 374 20.2% 839 45.4% 472 25.6%2004 1,956 175 9.0% 356 18.2% 909 46.5% 516 26.4%

2005 2,068 190 9.2% 357 17.3% 996 48.2% 525 25.4%

2006 1,801 167 9.3% 280 15.5% 910 50.5% 444 24.6%2007 1,355 143 10.5% 210 15.5% 681 50.3% 321 23.7%2008 906 121 13.4% 135 14.9% 453 50.1% 196 21.7%2009F 510 51 10.0% 77 15.0% 255 50.0% 128 25.0%

2010F 700 67 9.6% 106 15.1% 351 50.1% 176 25.2%

2011F 930 87 9.4% 140 15.1% 467 50.2% 235 25.3%2012F 1,070 102 9.5% 161 15.0% 537 50.2% 271 25.3%

Northeast Midwest South West


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,5001,750

2,000

2,250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Single Family Multi-Family Manufactured Housing

RESIDENTIAL


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3

Total Residential Improvement Expenditures

The Bureau of the Census ceased tracking and publishing data on the remodeling market in the fourthquarter of 2007. Ducker continues to estimate and track this market using data from the Harvard JointCenter for Housing Studies Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) in additional to review of

same store sales by large home improvement retailers. Based on these inputs the remodeling market isestimated to have declined by 12 percent to $124.5 billion in 2008. Declines in the overall sales ofexisting homes, double digit declines in home values, and much more stringent credit requirements formortgages and home equity loans continue to adversely impact the remodeling market. 2009 residentialimprovement expenditures are expected to decline by an additional 14 percent, but the market shouldimprove by 8 percent in 2010.

Note: Included in the total are additions, alterations, and major replacements. Excluded are maintenance, repairs, and outsideadditions/alterations

Total Residential Improvement Expenditures(Billions of Dollars)Excluding additions and alterations to properties outside of structures

YearSource: History: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (LIRA)

Forecast: Ducker Research Company, Inc.

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

RESIDENTIAL

B

illions

Year Expenditures ($B) Growth Over Prior Year2003 112.7 4.9%

2004 121.7 8.0%

2005 133.4 9.6%

2006 143.4 7.5%2007 141.4 -1.4%

2008 124.5 -12.0%

2009F 107.0 -14.0%

2010F 115.6 8.0%2011F 129.5 12.0%2012F 139.8 8.0%


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Manufactured Housing ShipmentsManufactured Housing Shipments to Dealers by Geographic Region

2003 - 2012F(Thousands of Units)

Year Total Northeast Midwest South West

2003 131 10 25 70 252004 131 10 20 73 27

2005 147 10 17 90 30

2006 117 8 13 71 252007 96 7 10 61 172008 82 5 8 56 132009F 65 4 7 41 122010F 70 5 8 44 132011F 75 5 8 47 142012F 80 5 9 51 15

Existing Home Sales

The National Association of Realtors publishes data on existing home sales, segmented at a nationallevel into single family versus condominium, or co-op sales. Existing home sales declined for the thirdconsecutive year to slightly under 5 million units. This represents a 13.1 percent decline from the 5.6million homes sold in 2007. Condominiums and co-ops were harder hit and declined by over 21 percent.Inventory has declined, but remains at a very high historical level and a 10.5 month supply of homesexists in the marketplace. Distressed sales, such as foreclosures, are also accounting for a significantvolume of existing home sales. Sales of existing homes are expected to gradually improve throughout

2009, but an overall decline of 2.5 percent is expected.

Existing Home Sales2003 2012F

(Thousands of Units)

YearSingle Family

SalesCondo/Co-Op Sales Total

Annual Percent

Change Total

2003 5,443 732 6,175 9.7%2004 5,958 820 6,778 9.8%2005 6,180 896 7,076 4.4%

2006 5,677 801 6,478 -8.5%2007 4,939 713 5,652 -12.8%2008 4,350 563 4,913 -13.1%

2009F 4,241 549 4,790 -2.5%

2010F 4,728 612 5,340 11.5%

2011F 5,224 676 5,900 10.5%

2012F 5,489 711 6,200 5.1%

Source: History: National Association of RealtorsForecast: Ducker Research Company, Inc.

RESIDENTIAL


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5

Prime Windows

The residential window market is classified into four main categories based on the predominant frameand sash materials: wood (including clad wood), vinyl, aluminum and fiberglass. A fifth category,other windows describes all other plastic materials including ABS plastics, cellular vinyl, and

PVC/wood composites.

The drastically declining new construction market coupled with the drop in remodeling expenditurescontinues to take a significant toll on nearly all the segments and regions of the residential windowmarket. In total, the residential window market declined by over 18 percent. New constructionapplications declined by 27.1 percent from 2007 to 2008, while remodeling and replacementapplications dropped by 11.8 percent. The conventional window market does not include an additional3.8 million units used in light commercial and manufactured housing applications, which brings the totalresidential-type prime windows to 52.2 million units. Within this other segment, the light-commercialmarket declined by 7 percent and units for manufactured housing declined by an additional 15 percent.

Total Shipments of Conventional Prime Windows by Year2003 2012F

(Millions of Units)

Source: Ducker Research Company, Inc.

*Includes vinyl clad and metal clad wood units.

05

1015202530354045505560657075

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood* Aluminum Vinyl Other Fiberglass

RESIDENTIAL


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6

Prime WindowsMarginal share shift continued in the total market away from wood and aluminum to vinyl, but much ofthis is an impact of overall application mix between new construction and remodeling and replacement.Vinyl windows declined by nearly 17 percent in aggregate. Aluminum products showed the steepestrate of decline at 26.6 percent, while wood windows declined by an additional 21.4 percent. Fiberglass

continues to grow despite the downturn, showing a 6.2 percent rate of growth as this product becomesmore available to and accepted by consumers and builders. Other windows also showed some growthon the remodeling side and this category grew by 3.4 percent in aggregate.

The growing volume of foreclosures impacting both the resale and new construction housing market hascreated some uncertainty regarding the impact of recently announced incentives for new home buyersand tax credits for energy efficient window replacement. Replacement windows may receive the mostdirect boost in the short term, however the long term and indirect effects of the program remainchallenging to forecast due to the unprecedented macro economic environment. Preliminarily, themarket is expected to continue to decline by an additional 23.9 percent in 2009, but show markedimprovement from 2010 to 2012.

Shipments of Prime Windows2003 2012F(Millions of Units)

New Construction 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 9.9 9.5 9.2 8.3 6.2 4.3 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.3

Aluminum 5.1 5.9 6.5 6.1 4.4 3.1 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4

Vinyl 13.8 15.2 17.4 16.8 13.2 9.7 5.6 8.0 11.0 12.8

Fiberglass* 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5

Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

Sub Total 29.5 31.4 34.1 32.3 24.9 18.1 10.5 14.5 19.3 22.3

Remodeling &

Replacement2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.0 8.9 7.6 6.5 6.9 7.8 8.4

Aluminum 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4

Vinyl 20.0 22.2 23.2 22.4 22.5 20.0 17.4 19.0 21.8 23.5

Fiberglass* 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0

Other 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

Sub Total 33.3 35.7 36.4 34.5 34.3 30.2 26.3 28.6 32.5 35.0

Total Construction 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 19.9 19.7 19.2 17.3 15.1 11.9 8.9 10.3 12.4 13.6

Aluminum 7.7 8.3 8.8 8.3 6.4 4.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.8

Vinyl 33.8 37.4 40.6 39.2 35.7 29.7 23.0 27.1 32.8 36.4

Fiberglass* 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.21 1.28 1.36 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5

Other 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Total 62.8 67.1 70.5 66.7 59.1 48.4 36.8 43.1 51.8 57.3

* Due to rounding, totals may not equal the sums of individual values. Source: Ducker Research

RESIDENTIAL


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7

Storm Doors

Shipments of storm doors decreased to approximately 4.4 million units, which was an 18.5 percentdecline over 2007. Significant decreases in new construction and remodeling activity influenced thedecline. A 25.5 percent decline in the market is expected for 2009. Conditions are expected to improve

in 2010 through 2012, but increasing energy efficiency of entry doors and continued trends towarddecorative entry doorlites may temper overall growth.

Storm Door Shipments

2003 - 2012F(Millions of Units)

*Other defined as vinyl or metal cladding over wood, wood composite or foam core.

Residential Type Unit Skylights

Residential skylights saw a decline of over 22 percent from 2007 to 2008. The higher than expecteddecline was driven by sharp slowdowns in new construction and remodeling activity. As builderslooked for ways to cut costs, discretionary products like skylights saw a more significant drop than entrydoors and windows. For 2009, the market is expected to continue to decline by roughly 28.6 percent.As the market rebounds in 2010, shipments are expected to increase by over 21 percent over 2009 levelsand the market should regain strong growth through 2012.

Residential-Type Skylight Unit Shipments

2003 - 2012F(Thousands of Skylights)

RESIDENTIAL

Application 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

New 813 799 798 670 555 400 220 310 430 500

R&R 917 910 832 815 707 580 480 540 630 700

Total 1,730 1,709 1,630 1,485 1,262 980 700 850 1,060 1,200

Doors 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Aluminum 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.4

Other* 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8

Wood 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.4 4.4 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.3


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Residential Patio Doors

Patio door shipments continue to correlate closely with the overall broader window market. The 2008total patio door market declined by 18.1 percent from 2008 levels. The new construction market borethe brunt of the largest decline of 26.4 percent, while the remodeling and replacement market declined

by 11.4 percent. During this time period vinyl products declined by 15 percent, while wood andaluminum doors declined by 21.3 and 25.8 percent respectively. These products are traditionallymanufactured by window manufacturers, while steel and fiberglass products are made by traditionaldoor manufacturers. The steel market declined by nearly 17 percent, while fiberglass products droppedby 10 percent.

The 2009 market is expected to remain weak for both new construction and remodeling and replacementresulting in a 24.4 percent aggregate decline. This decline will likely impact all material types.Conditions are expected to improve in 2010, resulting in a forecasted 18 percent growth over 2009levels. Shipments for 2010 are expected to remain significantly below recent historic levels of patiodoor shipments, but mark the beginning of a steady growth trend lasting though at least 2012.

Shipments of Patio Doors

2003 - 2012F(Thousands of Units)

Source: Ducker Research Company, Inc.Wood segment includes vinyl clad wood and metal clad wood units.Due to rounding, totals may not equal the sums of individual values

RESIDENTIAL

New Construction 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 842 893 915 810 670 480 275 390 530 605

Aluminum 431 426 466 380 290 200 110 125 135 145

Vinyl 677 802 875 860 695 530 310 445 615 720Steel 267 260 244 220 180 130 80 110 140 160

Fiberglass 65 90 92 93 82 70 50 68 85 105

Other 18 20 23 22 18 15 10 12 15 20

Sub Total 2,300 2,490 2,615 2,385 1,935 1,425 835 1,150 1,520 1,755

Remodeling &

Replacement2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 593 607 615 587 575 500 430 465 530 575

Aluminum 284 274 284 235 215 175 140 145 150 155

Vinyl 974 1,058 1,095 1,130 1,091 985 870 960 1,100 1,200

Steel 483 470 456 439 379 335 290 315 355 380

Fiberglass 85 110 118 128 118 110 100 107 120 133

Other 22 30 32 33 32 30 26 28 30 32

Sub Total 2,440 2,550 2,600 2,550 2,410 2,135 1,855 2,020 2,285 2,475

Total Construction 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 1,435 1,500 1,530 1,397 1,245 980 704 855 1,060 1,180

Aluminum 715 700 750 615 505 375 250 270 285 300

Vinyl 1,650 1,860 1,970 1,990 1,785 1,515 1,180 1,405 1,715 1,920Steel 750 730 700 658 560 465 371 425 495 540

Fiberglass 150 200 210 221 200 180 150 175 205 238

Other 40 50 55 55 50 45 36 40 45 52Total 4,740 5,040 5,215 4,935 4,345 3,560 2,690 3,170 3,805 4,230


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Residential Entry/Interior Doors

Steel continues to be the most widely used exterior door material; however, its share of market has fallento 60 percent of entry doors in 2008. Fiberglass share continues to grow and is anticipated to continue todo so, though at a somewhat slower pace. Wood doors have found a niche in high-end construction

which has slowed its loss of market share to fiberglass.

Entry Doors

Residential Entry Doors Residential Entry Doors2008 2012 Forecast

Volume = 10.4 Million Units Volume = 11.0 Million Units

Little change in the segments for interior door material types is expected over the next five years.

Residential interior door volumes include both passage and closet doors.

Interior Doors

Residential Interior Doors Residential Interior Doors2008 2012 Forecast


RESIDENTIAL

60%

28%

12%

58%30%

12%

Steel

Wood

FiberglassFiberglass

Steel

Wood

97%

3%

97%

3%

Wood

Other

Wood

Other


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10

Steel is anticipated to remain the primary material used for entry doors in the nonresidential market,followed by aluminum, including aluminum framed storefront doors, which represent slightly more thanone-third of the overall market.

Entry DoorsNonresidential Entry Doors Nonresidential Entry Doors

2008 2012 Forecast


Nonresidential construction has slowed somewhat in 2008, tempering demand in the nonresidentialentry and interior door categories. In 2008, wood sales were flat overall versus 2007, whereas steelvolumes declined somewhat, thus increasing woods share of the 2008 market. It is important to notethat interior passage doors are defined as all door applications within a building or structure, excludingcloset/bifold, service, and other special purpose doors. Nonresidential interior doors include bothinterior passage and closet doors.

Interior Doors

Nonresidential Interior Doors Nonresidential Interior Doors2008 2012 Forecast


52%39%

6% 3%

54%36%

7% 3%

Steel

Aluminum

Wood

Other

Steel

Aluminum

WoodOther

43%

30%

25%

2%

42%

30%

25%

3%

Wood

Aluminum

Steel

Other

Wood

Aluminum

Steel

Other

NONRESIDENTIAL


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Door Shipments and Forecast

Weak residential new construction starts in 2008 had a major impact on the residential entry door marketand are expected to continue to have a significant impact in 2009. The residential replacement andremodeling market also experienced a decline in 2008, though to a lesser extent than new construction.

Unit volume decreased by 18.1 percent to 10.4 million entry door units in 2008. Residential interior andpassage doors also showed a decline of 20.9 percent over the past year. Entry and interior doors areexpected to decline by approximately 16 and 22 percent respectively in 2009.

Nonresidential door volumes have begun to experience a slight decline, decreasing by approximatelyone percent over 2007 for interior doors. A weakening of nonresidential activity is expected to slowdoor demand through 2011.

Shipments of Doors by Material and Application2003 2012F

(Millions of Units)

Residential Entry* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Steel 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.4 7.9 6.3 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.4

Wood 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3

Fiberglass 1.9 2.5 3.5 3.7 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3Subtotal 13.8 14.5 15.2 14.7 12.7 10.4 8.6 9.5 10.4 11.0

Residential

Interior** 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Wood 57.9 61.7 65.5 63.0 54.7 43.4 32.8 39.2 46.7 52.0

Other 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6Subtotal 60.5 64.3 67.5 64.9 56.4 44.6 33.8 40.4 48.1 53.6

NonresidentialEntry 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Steel 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6

Aluminum 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Wood 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Other 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1u tota 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9

Nonresidential

Interior** 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Steel 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4

Aluminum 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0

Wood 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3

Other 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2u tota 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.8 8.7 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.9

Source: Ducker Research Company, Inc*Excludes patio-designated units.

**Interior door volume includes both passage and closet/bifold. Volume is counted by individual leaf, thus a single bifold

door includes 2 units while a double bifold includes 4 units

RESIDENTIAL/NONRESIDENTIAL


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12

Insulating Glass Usage

The use of sealed insulating glass is a standard offering in residential and nonresidential window unitswith the exception of parts of southern Florida and other regions in the Southwestern U.S. Nosignificant changes in the overall market penetration were seen in either the residential or the

nonresidential market over the past year, but share shift continues in the types of spacer products used.Additionally, continued penetration of insulating glass is not expected going forward, but edge sealtechnologies continue to change to meet higher energy efficiency standards. The use of triple glazing isalso expected to continue to grow. Within the residential market, non-rigid warm edge spacers continueto gain share against aluminum, as well as rigid warm edge products. The nonresidential marketcontinues to use primarily aluminum spacers, but the use of warm edge products within this market isgrowing.

Insulating Glass Historical Penetration

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Residential 93% 94% 94% 94% 95%

Nonresidential 88% 88% 88% 88% 89%

Insulating Glass Forecast Penetration

2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Residential 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Nonresidential 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%

Residential Insulating Glass Penetration Nonresidential Insulating Glass Penetration(Percent of Total Market) (Percent of Total Market)

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1998 2003 2008

Insulating Other

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1998 2003 2008

Insulating Other

RESIDENTIAL/NONRESIDENTIAL


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13

Nonresidential Construction

Contract awards reflect activity related to new construction and major additions to existing structures.Actual fenestration demand (shipments) for nonresidential building activity typically lags contractawards by up to one year or more. This cycle can shorten or lengthen tremendously depending on the

complexity, size of a building, and also when the specific building product is installed during theconstruction cycle.

The 2007 contract award total of 1,424 million square feet was up marginally from 2006 totals dueprimarily to strength in the manufacturing and warehouse category. This represented slight growth of0.5 percent over the 2006 total contract awards. In contrast, 2008 contract awards declined significantlyby 13.5 percent and this is expected to adversely impact the 2009 nonresidential window market. TheOffice/Hotel/Institutional category dropped by 4.0 percent in 2008 after a decline of 1.1 percent the prioryear. Manufacturing and warehouse contract awards increased by 17.9 percent from 2007 to 2008 aftera sharp uptick in growth of 12.2 percent in the previous year. The store and mercantile segment will bethe hardest hit, declining by 26.2 percent from 2007 to 2008 after a decline of 3.4 percent from 2006 to

2007. Contract awards are expected to continue this decline in 2009, dropping by an additional 11.3percent before beginning a gradual uptrend from 2010 through 2012.

Nonresidential Contract Awards

2006 2012F(Millions of Square Feet Floor Area)

Note: These categories have been established by structural types that reflect the largest floor to vision area ratios accordingto the July, 1998 AAMA/WDMA Study of the U.S. Market for Windows and Doors prepared by Ducker Research.

0

100

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

2006 2007 2008E 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Manufacturing/Warehouse Office/Hotel/Institutional Store/Mercantile

NONRESIDENTIAL


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14

2008 Nonresidential Contract Awards

(Based on Millions of Square Feet Floor Area)

2012F Nonresidential Contract Awards

(Based on Millions of Square Feet Floor Area)


47.5%19.2%

12.3%

21.0%

Midwest

South

West

Northeast

45.9%

23.1%

19.3%

11.7%

Midwest

South

West

Northeast

NONRESIDENTIAL


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15

Regional Nonresidential Construction

History and Forecast of Nonresidential Contract AwardsBy Selected Building Types and Region

2006 2012 Forecast(Millions of Square Feet Floor Area)

* Due to rounding, totals may not equal the sums of individual values

NONRESIDENTIAL

Manufacturing/Warehouse Northeast Midwest South West Total U.S.

2006 28 58 113 64 263

2007 36 68 125 66 295

2008E 24 57 112 49 242

2009F 25 47 92 44 208

2010F 27 55 96 53 231

2011F 31 58 109 59 257

2012F 31 59 113 61 264

Office/Hotel/Institutional Northeast Midwest South West Total U.S.2006 89 142 311 169 711

2007 73 140 327 162 703

2008E 89 125 329 132 675

2009F 74 115 296 124 609

2010F 70 113 296 129 608

2011F 75 120 320 140 656

2012F 80 128 338 153 700

Store/Mercantile Northeast Midwest South West Total U.S.

2006 50 87 185 120 442

2007 46 83 183 114 427

2008E 40 54 144 77 315

2009F 34 51 122 69 276

2010F 39 58 131 76 304

2011F 44 68 155 88 354

2012F 47 74 169 98 389

Total Nonresidential Northeast Midwest South West Total U.S.

2006 167 287 609 353 1,416

2007 155 291 635 343 1,424

2008E 152 236 585 259 1,2322009F 133 213 509 237 1,093

2010F 136 226 523 259 1,143

2011F 150 246 584 287 1,267

2012F 158 261 621 312 1,352


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16

Window Usage in Nonresidential Construction

The nonresidential glazing continued growing in 2008, largely due to the continued growth of thecurtainwall category. The overall market reached 542 million square feet, representing a growth of 1.2percent over the 2007 total market of 536 million square feet. Curtainwall products grew by 18 percent,

while storefront and other site fabricated products declined by 4.4 and 4.2 percent respectively. Shopfabricated windows grew by 2 percent during this time period.

Looking forward, the market is forecast to decline by more than previously expected due to the sharpdrop in nonresidential contract awards. The overall market is projected to decline by 15 percent in 2009over 2008 levels. An additional decline of 12.7 percent is also projected for 2010. Due to weakness inoffice and particularly retail construction, storefront and site fabricated products are forecast to declineby 18.3 and 18.0 percent in 2009. Curtainwall is also set to decline by 16.5 percent after severalconsecutive years of double digit growth. Shop fabricated, or true architectural, windows are projectedto decline by the smallest margin of 5 percent as institutional categories, such as schools and publicbuildings, are expected to remain the most resilient during the downturn.

Growth is expected to resume in 2011 and is forecast to increase by 4.9 percent over 2010 levels. Themarket is forecast to show a more significant rebound in 2012, which is forecast to grow by 11.2 percentwhen compared to 2011.

Window Usage in Nonresidential Construction

New Construction and Major Additions* Replacement(Millions of Square Feet Vision Area) (Millions of Square Feet Vision Area)

*New construction and major additions also includes remodeling

NONRESIDENTIAL

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Site Fab WindowsShop Fab WindowsCurtain-wallStore Front

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

Site Fab WindowsShop Fab WindowsCurtain-wallStore Front


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17

Window Usage in Nonresidential Buildings

2006-2012 Forecast(Vision Area, Millions of Square Feet)

Site Fab

Windows

Shop Fab

Windows

Curtain-

wall

Store

Front Total

Site Fab

Windows

Shop Fab

Windows

Curtain-

wall

Store

Front Total

Site Fab

Windows

Shop Fab

Windows

Curtain-

wall

Store

Front To

Northeast

2006 21 12 15 20 68 7 21 2 9 39 28 32 18 29 10

2007 21 12 17 20 71 7 22 3 9 40 28 34 20 29 11

2008 19 12 19 18 68 6 21 3 8 38 25 33 22 25 10

2009F 18 13 18 16 64 6 22 3 7 38 24 35 21 23 10

2010F 15 12 15 14 55 5 20 2 6 34 20 32 17 20 89

2011F 16 11 15 14 57 5 20 3 6 34 21 31 18 21 90

2012F 18 12 18 16 63 6 21 3 7 37 23 33 20 23 10

Midwest

2006 21 11 14 22 67 7 19 2 9 37 28 29 16 31 10

2007 21 11 15 21 68 7 20 3 9 38 28 31 18 30 102008 20 12 18 20 70 7 20 3 9 38 27 32 21 29 10

2009F 15 10 14 15 55 5 17 2 7 31 20 27 16 22 86

2010F 14 10 12 13 48 4 17 2 6 29 18 26 14 19 77

2011F 15 10 13 15 52 5 17 2 6 30 19 26 15 21 82

2012F 16 10 15 16 57 5 17 2 7 32 21 28 17 23 89

South

2006 44 10 27 46 127 14 19 4 20 56 58 29 31 65 18

2007 45 11 31 46 133 14 20 5 20 60 59 31 36 66 19

2008 45 12 38 46 141 15 21 6 20 63 60 34 44 66 20

2009F 39 12 34 40 125 13 21 5 18 57 52 33 39 57 18

2010F 33 11 28 34 106 11 20 4 15 50 44 31 32 49 15

2011F 35 11 29 36 110 11 19 5 16 50 46 30 34 51 16

2012F 39 12 34 40 124 13 20 5 18 56 52 32 39 58 18

West

2006 29 5 19 27 79 9 8 3 11 32 38 13 22 38 11

2007 32 5 23 29 90 10 9 4 13 36 42 15 27 42 12

2008 30 5 27 27 89 10 9 4 12 36 39 15 31 39 12

2009F 21 4 19 19 64 7 8 3 9 26 28 12 23 28 9

2010F 19 4 17 17 57 6 7 3 8 24 25 12 19 25 8

2011F 21 4 19 19 63 7 8 3 8 26 28 12 22 28 89

2012F 24 5 21 21 71 8 8 3 10 29 31 13 25 31 10

Total

2006 115 37 75 114 341 37 66 12 49 164 153 103 86 163 50

2007 119 40 86 116 361 38 71 15 51 174 158 111 100 167 53

2008 114 41 102 111 367 37 72 17 49 175 151 113 118 160 54

2009F 94 39 85 91 308 30 68 14 40 152 124 107 99 131 46

2010F 81 37 71 78 266 26 64 12 35 136 106 101 82 113 402011F 86 36 76 84 282 28 62 12 37 140 114 98 89 121 42

2012F 97 38 87 94 316 31 67 14 41 154 128 105 101 135 46

Region/

Year

New Construction and Major Additions* Replacement Total

* Remodeling activity within nonresidential windows is nearly always represented as a major addition to an existing structure** Due to rounding, totals may not equal the sums of individual values

NONRESIDENTIAL


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Geographic Division of the United States

In various sections of the U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast, reference is made to U.S.

Census Regions. These regions are illustrated on the map below.

WestMidwest

South

Northeast

Copyright 2009 Co-published by:

Researched and edited in March 2009 by:

Ducker Worldwide, LLC1250 Maplelawn Dr.

Troy, MI 48084

(248) 644-0086www ducker com

American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA)1827 Walden Office Square, Suite 550

Schaumburg, Illinois 60173Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774www.aamanet.org

Window & Door Manufacturers Association (WDMA)401North Michigan Avenue

Chicago,, Illinois 60611Tel: (312) 321-6802www.wdma.com
http://www.ducker.com/http://www.ducker.com/http://www.aamanet.org/http://www.aamanet.org/http://www.wdma.com/http://www.ducker.com/http://www.wdma.com/http://www.aamanet.org/

industry statistics review presented by aama 2009

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