inegi june 2007 experimental index of services production (isp) rail and road freight transportation

INEGI

June 2007

EXPERIMENTAL

INDEX OF SERVICES PRODUCTION

(ISP)

Rail and Road

Freight Transportation

INEGIExperimental Index of Services Production (ISP)

Objective:

Apply the recommendations of the Compilation Manual for an Index of Services Production, provided by OECD STESEG Task Force on Services, for the production of an Experimental Index of Services Production (Rail and Road Freight Transportation), in the Mexican case.


Basis for the construction of the principal’s series data (2005-2007),

based in NAICS:

1. Monthly Services’ Survey (MSS), 2005-2007.2. Information since January 2005 to March 2007.3. Pick up data at NAICS’s Industry Group Level:

a. 4821, Rail transportation.b. 4841, General freight trucking.c. 4842, Specialized freight trucking.d. 4921, Couriers.e. 4922, Local messengers and local delivery.


1.From these data base, is calculated the Total Turnover (of services production).

The MMS collects, by means of questionnaire:

•Incomes from services offer and goods sell.•Incomes from transport, cargo, courier and delivery services.

2.Once obtained the Total Turnover, it was deflated with the Producer Price Index (base 2005=100) related with the NAICS’s Industry Group, generated by Central Bank.

The Manual recommends the use of a wide variety of gross output price indexes for computing the preferred deflated gross output measures. For consistency with the national accounts, the preferred deflator would ordinarily be a gross value added price index that reflects the difference between gross output prices and intermediate input prices. This is the case in terms of the PPI used.


Procedure for the calculation of a Laspeyres Index ofTotal Turnover

(Related to 5 NAICS’s Industry Groups)

5

15

1

. *.

ti i

t

i

i

i

Ing ps wIng psw

w

Where:Ing.ps, Total Turnover.Ing.ps, Total Turnover by Industry group i on period t.i, industry group 1 to 5.w, Industry group weight, from 1 to 5.t, monthly period from 1 to “n”.

Ing.pst1w1

Ing.pswt

Ing.pst2 w2

Ing.pst3 w3

Ing.pst4w4

Ing.pst5w5


Total Turnover data base2005 - 2007


NAICS’ Industry group2005

Coverage %

2006-2007Evaluated coverage

%

4821, Rail transportation. 100.00 100.00

4841, General freight trucking. 32.24 100.00

4842, Specialized freight trucking. 32.05 100.00

4921, Couriers. 80.33 80.09

4922, Local messengers and local delivery. 80.26 80.10

Recognizing the effect of two different samples (firstly, for 2005, at the beginning of the project and, after a evaluation of that sample, one for 2006-2007), it was necessary, by means of a statistical inference, to compare both samples because of the first design for the project, that was based on the preliminary Economic Census’ Directory and, second, from an evaluation of the coverage with the definitive Directory.


Basis for the construction of the historical series data (2000-2004), based in the

Mexican Classification System, 1994 (MCS):

From a data base referred to January 2000 to December 2004, was selected an homogeneous sample (the same units in all the period) of MSS, for the following economic activities, under Mexican Classification System 1994 (by economic classes instead of NAICS’s Industry Groups):

a. 711203, Other Specialized freight trucking.b. 711204, General services freight trucking. c. 720002, Courier services.d. 711101 (4821) Rail transport (Because of this economic activity

was outside the scope in 2004, the data of Total Turnover was calculated from a linear regression, considering the values known.


Procedure for the calculation of a Laspeyres Index ofTotal Turnover

(Related to 4 economic classes of the MCS)

5

15

1

. *.

ti i

t

i

i

i

Ing ps wIng psw

w

Where:Ing.ps, Total Turnover.Ing.ps, Total Turnover by Industry group i on period t.i, economic classes, 1 to 4.w, Industry group weight, from 1 to 4.t, monthly period from 1 to “n”.

Ing.pst1w1

Ing.pswt

Ing.pst2 w2

Ing.pst3 w3

Ing.pst4w4


Total Turnover data base2000 - 2004


Index of Services Production (ISP).

12

2005

1

.*100

. /12t

i

Ing pswtIPSt

Ing psw

Where:IPSt, Index of Services Production of t period.Ing.ps, Turnover of t period.Ing.ps,2005, Turnover average of 2005.


Linking Index:

Time Series number 1, from January 2000 to December 2004.-

Calculate relative annual rates.

Time Series number 2, from January de 2005 to may 2006.-

Calculate relative annual rates.

Linking both Time Series, by the interpolation of the relative annual rates for the referred period from January to December 2005.

The interpolation of the relative annual rates was developed by a linear regression of each of the monthly periods for 2005.


January 20054th Degree Polynomial Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2+dx^3...S=0.02309910R=0.95449983Coefficient Data:a = -0.023062156b = 0.15103958c = -0.10947638d = 0.025847016e = -0.0018886093

February 20054th Degree Polynomial Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2+dx^3...S=0.00924431R=0.97485091Coefficient Data:a = -0.03123046b = 0.10747809c = -0.067982591d = 0.014733239e = -0.0010077286

March 2005Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S=0.01407270R=0.97897491Coefficient Data:a = 0.047564251b = 0.068188074c = 1.019328d = 0.90780334

April 2005Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S==0.02939804R=0.94140656Coefficient Data:a = 0.028870622b = 0.063453995c = 4.446753d = 2.837249

May 2005Quadratic Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2S=0.03547065R=0.90247684Coefficient Data:a = 0.092887805b = -0.069757074c = 0.012521521

Jun 2005Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S=0.02730024R=0.97360005Coefficient Data:a = 0.0561301b = 0.081759878c = 1.0240701d = 0.7554897


July 2005Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S=0.01915395R=0.96979746Coefficient Data:a = 0.042407781b = 0.049793064c = 1.1992459d = -0.31133447

August 2005Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S=0.05336617R=0.84252754Coefficient Data:a = 0.037261494b = 0.057018438c = 1.0402058d = 0.52179487

September 2005Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S=0.00351158R=0.99701542Coefficient Data:a = 0.029885587b = 0.029829211c = 0.91254223d = 1.4701819

October 2005Sinusoidal Fit:y=a+b*cos(cx+d)S=0.01877400R=0.96952486Coefficient Data:a = 0.040456543b = 0.046053947c = 0.90615447d = 0.56274884

November 2005MMF Model: y=(a*b+c*x^d)/(b+x^d)S=0.04961642R=0.75387915Coefficient Data:a = 0.0085556164b = 6.5533222e+010c = 0.06358521d =19.645144

December 2005Reciprocal Quadratic: y=1/(a+bx+cx^2)S=0.00859035R=0.99167434Coefficient Data: a = 218902.2 b = -91225.602 c = 9125.5984


ISP data baseJan. 2000 – march 2007

INEGIISP and its moving average Chart

INEGIISP and its moving average Chart

Future work

Development of an Index Services Production for the following group activities and NAICS Sectors:

• Air Passenger Transportation.• 51, Information.• 61, Educational Services.• 62, Health Care and Social Assistance.• 72, Accommodation and food services.

inegi june 2007 experimental index of services production (isp) rail and road freight transportation

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