inemi roadmap activities in emerging...
TRANSCRIPT
iNEMI Roadmap
Activities In Emerging
Technologies
Chuck Richardson, iNEMI
SMTAI 2012
Walt Disney Dolphin Resort
October 15, 2012
Agenda
Introduction
iNEMI Roadmap Process
Highlights from the iNEMI Roadmap work Medical PEG - Healthcare
Automotive PEG – Electric Vehicles
Energy Storage and Conversion TWG - Energy
Solid State Illumination TWG – Lighting
Summary
Questions
2
About iNEMI
About iNEMI
4
International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led
consortium of over 100 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry
associations, government agencies and universities. Working on advancing
manufacturing technology since 1994. Visit us at www.inemi.org.
5 Key Deliverables:
• Technology Roadmaps
• Collaborative Deployment
Projects
• Research Priorities Documents
• Proactive Forums
• Position Papers
3 Major Focus Areas:
• Miniaturization
• Environment
• Medical Electronics
Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics
Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.
iNEMI Members
5
6
Product
Needs
Technology
Evolution
GAP
Analysis/
Technical
Plan
Research
Projects
Implementation
iNEMI Methodology
Competitive
Solutions
Roadmap Project
Completion
Industry Solution
Needed
Academia
Government
iNEMI
Members
No Work
Required or
Outsourced
Available
to Market
Place
Global
Participation
Disruptive
Technology
Roadmap
iNEMI
Roadmap
Statistics for the 2011 iNEMI Roadmap
Roadmaps the needs for 2011-2021
> 575 participants
> 7 man-years of time expended
> 310 companies/organizations
18 countries from 4 continents
21 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
> 1800 pages of information
8
Impact Roadmap used by industry to identify future market & technology needs.
Used by government & research organizations to identify and fund new research initiatives to address industries needs.
2013 Product Emulator Groups
(PEGs) Emulator Characteristics
Consumer / Portable
Produced in high volumes, cost is the primary driver,
hand held battery powered products are also driven by
size and weight reduction
Office Driven by the need for maximum performance over a
wide range of cost targets
Automotive Products Products that must operate in an automotive
environment
High-End Systems
Products that serve the high performance
computing/storage markets including networking,
datacom and telecom and cover a wide range of cost
and performance targets
Medical Products Products that must operate with high reliability and, in
some cases, support life critical applications
Aerospace / Defense Products that must operate reliably in extreme
environments
9
10
2011 Roadmap Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic PCB Board
Assembly Customer
RF Components &
Subsystems
Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics
Energy Storage &
Conversion Systems
Modeling, Simulation,
and Design
Packaging &
Component
Substrates Semiconductor
Technology
Final
Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)
Passive Components
Information
Management
Test, Inspection &
Measurement
Environmentally
Conscious
Electronics
Ceramic
Substrates
Thermal
Management
Connectors
MEMS/
Sensors
Red=Business Green=Engineering Light Blue=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem
Solid State Illumination
Photovoltaics
11
Roadmap Development
Product Emulator Groups TWGs
Semiconductor Technology
Design Technologies
Manufacturing Technologies
Comp./Subsyst. Technologies
Modeling, Thermal, etc.
Board Assy, Test, etc.
Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.
2013 Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution
Business Processes
Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.
Optoelectronics and
Optical Storage
Organic Printed
Circuit Boards
Magnetic and
Optical Storage
Supply Chain
Management
Semiconductors
iNEMI
Information
Management
TWG
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI / IPC / EIPC
/ TPCA
Organic PWB
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS /
MIG/PSMA
Packaging
TWG
iNEMI
Board
Assembly
TWG
Interconnect
Substrates—Ceramic
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
Fourteen Contributing Organizations
12
iNEMI / MIG
/ ITRS
MEMS
TWG
iNEMI
Passives
TWG
Medical
Electronics
PEG Fred Sporon-Fiedler, Micro Systems Eng. Chair
Overview
Medical Electronics Market and Trends
2013 Medical PEG Chapter Highlights
Summary
Key challenges and opportunities
15
Digital Health
Patient care enhancement
- New and Unique Medical Products
- Monitor Systems
- Sensor Technology
- Improved Diagnostics
Wireless technology for data transfer
- Instant and remote monitoring
- Power transfer by RF
- Off-load computing and data storage
to remote host system, outside the
device.
In the past 12 years, growth, innovation and
miniaturization have lead to major advances in medical
electronics manufacturing and the therapies they deliver.
16
Medical Market and Trends
Globally, the number of persons 60 and older
was 600 million in 2000. It is expected to double
to 1.2 billion by 2025 (W.H.O.)
There are over 40 million persons in the U.S.
over 65 years of age (U.S. Census Bureau)
Currently, the U.S. spends 1.75 Trillion dollars
(over 16% of its gross domestic product) on
health care
It is estimated that 2012 annual spending on
medical devices / electronics is approaching 100
Billion dollars
MEDICAL MARKET
2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2011
$91Bn6% of
Electronics Industry
4.4% CAAGR2011-2017
3.9% CAAGR
2017-2023
$118Bn
$148Bn
$Bn
$100
$200
$150
$50
0
N212 .bes-INEMI med
0Americas Japan Europe Asia/
ROW
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% Production 2010
Source: Prismark 2012 iNEMI Update
Production concentrated in America & Europe – but will change
MEDICAL MARKET- High Potential
Bubble Chart Ref: IBM Institute for Business Value,” The
future of connected health devices”
3 BILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS FOR
CONNECTED HEALTH DEVICES (“Worried Well”)
19 19
General Business Indicators are good - High Growth of Tele-Medicine anticipated using multi
functional portable devices.
- Continued migration from prescriptive to preventive
medicine will drive increase in portable/wearable medical
monitoring devices.
- Emerging markets expected to have double digit growth.
- Focus on lower cost diagnostic equipment for developing
nations and rural areas.
- Regional assembly, design and distribution expected to
continue to increase in SEA and China.
- U.S. market impacted by health care reform and
conservative regulatory stance by FDA.
- Long time to market; Hard to get suppliers engaged
- Price pressures throughout health care value chain
-
20
3 Categories in Medical Electronics Sector 1) Implanted products (those devices implanted in a human body)
Strict regulatory procedures
Driven by battery life (low power loss) – this limits the use of certain components such as DRAM due to high energy consumption
Validation and traceability
Long term reliability paramount
Long development cycles, primary assembly and design by OEMs
2) Portable products (those devices that are easily transported) Cost parity with consumer / portables
Dynamic market, needs fast response … 9 to 24 month product cycle time
Mixed regulatory environment
Mostly outsourced assembly and design
Diagnostic Ultrasound in PDA size .. and smaller .. form factors
3) Diagnostic imaging devices and large scale equipment, e.g., MRI, CT Larger scale (often similar to servers or telecom equipment)
Often requires thermal management and heat sinking
Utilizes commercial off-the-shelf components, when available
Development cycle is shorter than implantables
Application and design well suited to EMS environment
Often does not require clean room or sterile assembly floor
21
Heart Failure Therapy: 5 year mortality rates as high as 50%,
Affects > 14M people (US, Europe & Japan)
Active technology developments on Miniaturization of therapy:
~12 cc to < 1 cc device
Technical Issues include:
Longer lifetime
Battery
Reliability
Patient safety
Implantable Example
Pacemakers – Currently the largest medical device market
US Annual:
– 750K patients/yr diagnosed, 500K implants annually
Portable Devices
22
23
Current Market Drivers in Consumer Medical Broad range of devices being brought to market
Connected monitoring of biometric data
Game changer in health care cost model?
Examples:
24
Trends and Market Drivers in Medical Imaging Increased health awareness and preventive care leading to
an increased demand for diagnostic and imaging systems.
Healthcare demands of 78M “US baby boomers” … clinician
shortage, global aging, technology expectation
Development of higher power systems capable of higher
patient throughput, higher resolution, and a greater ability to
discriminate individual tissue types, et al.
Medical imaging using video (for specific applications).
25
Example of differences from last Roadmap - 3D SiP and Integrated Passives
Medical PEG Roadmap New Challenges
Broader deployment of portable medical devices will
accelerate Miniaturization drive:
-Use of 3D SiP technology (w/wo TSV)
-Integration of discretes onto Si based integrated
passive devices (for high volume products or stable
topologies in low volume products)
Increased use of MEMS
Source: ASE Group
26
MtM Opportunities within Medical
Miniaturization, Energy efficiency …. - Nano-scale materials, coatings and conductors
- Use of MEMS
- Localized measurement – ex lab on a chip
- Gaseous and biological sensors – military and homeland security applications, as well as medical.
- Alternative Power and Rechargeable Batteries
- Self or bio powered systems
- New High Density Batteries MnO2, may lead to 10+ year life.
- Battery for new applications e.g. artificial retina (Sandia)
- Wearable, patient monitoring systems
- RF telemetry, offloading diagnostics from primary device
All these advancements require solving complex problems involving materials management, energy constraints, data security, reliability and above all patient safety.
Automotive
PEG
Jim Spall,Delphi
Chair
28
Automotive Product Emulator
Situation Analysis
Business Issues (Global)
Auto industry experts predict a tight race this year
between GM, Volkswagen, Toyota, and the joint
venture between Nissan and Renault.
GM retakes title of top-selling global automaker
9.03 million in sales in 2011- up 7.6% from 2010
Volkswagen AG came in second
8.16 million in sales in 2011- up 14% from 2010
Factors that could effect the automotive recovery
Debt crisis in Europe driving a global recession
Gas prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon
29
Automotive Product Emulator
Situation Analysis Business Issues (North America)
Americans felt more confident about the economy and there was pent-up demand
Average age of vehicles was 10.8 years (record)
12.7 million vehicles sold in 2011
11.5 million vehicles sold in 2010
GM sales rise 13 percent in 2011
2.5 million vehicles in the U.S.
Ford sales rise 11 percent in 2011
2.1 million vehicles in the U.S.
Chrysler sales rise 26 percent in 2011
1.37 million vehicles in the U.S.
30
Automotive Market
Situation Analysis (Automotive Electronics)
2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
4.7% CAAGR
2011-2017
4.2% CAAGR
2017-2023
$211Bn
$270Bn
$Bn
$200
$400
$300
$100
0
2011
$160Bn
10% of
Electronics Industry
N212.bes-INEMI auto
0Americas Japan Europe Asia/
ROW
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% Production 2010
Prismark Data
Growth of In-car Electronics The major trends driving the demand for increased
electronics penetration in automobiles include:
Stricter fuel economy and emissions mandates
Legislated requirements for advanced safety systems,
such as advanced airbags and on-board tire pressure
monitoring
Consumer demand for greater vehicle efficiencies
driven by escalating global crude oil prices
Consumer demand for greater safety, comfort, and
convenience features
According to iSuppli Corp., an estimated 62.3 million people
will have Internet access in their cars by 2016
Consumer demand for luxury features
Growth of hybrid and electric vehicles
31
Key Drivers
Cost, Reliability, Quality and Size
Cost is still the main key driver for automotive
Competitive cost will get you an opportunity to win a
program
Quality is a key metric that all automotive suppliers
are measured on by using Assembly Plant Returns
(APR).
Reliability is a given in the automotive sector
Failure to deliver will result in no future business
Size is a big benefit - some vehicles have 100
electronic controllers and space is limited
Chapter Highlights
Business Issues
More efficient Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy to 35.5 mpg by 2016
Downsizing of engines and increased use of Gas Direct injection
Increased use of turbo-charging
Researchers project 14 million electrified vehicles annually by 2020
1.5 million full Electric Vehicles (EV)
1.5 million Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)
11 million Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)
Toyota sold over 800,000 Prius Hybrids globally last year
Toyota has started a whole Prius vehicle line
Every major auto maker has HEV’s in the U.S.
Volume will be based on operating cost, carbon benefits, range
limitations, cost of fuel and government incentives for EV sales
Nissan sold 9,674 Leaf’s last year
GM sold 7,671 Volt’s last year – All needing repairs to better protect
the vehicles batteries from a crash test
Chapter Highlights
Business Issues
More functionality
Automotive MEMS Revenue
$2.2 billion in 2011, up 16 percent from 2010
$1.9 Billion in 2010
Five-year compounded growth rate of approximately 10
percent starting from 2010
Other 2011 vs. 2013 forecast differences
Circuit board – need for heavy copper
Large passives with press fit terminations
Increased use of MEMS sensors
The use of 0201 components in the future
Higher resolution and larger displays being used
(12.3” displays for the instrument cluster)
Sales of SnPb solder (80%) versus Lead free
solder (20%) for 2011
Greater thermal demands due to the electrified
vehicle
36
Opportunities Technical Issues
Shift to Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Electric Vehicles (EV)
Invention required to reach the battery cost target of $150/kWh
Today’s cost $600 -$1,000/kWh
Key components that are in need include:
High performance PCBs,
power devices,
bulk capacitors,
inductors and transformers,
cooling structures,
motor drive microprocessors,
high current connectors,
current sensors,
gate driver ICs,
battery management ICs,
busbars, and enclosures.
37
Opportunities
Technical Issues Increased use of MEMS in automotive
MEMS applications for automotive have come a long way since the introduction of a micro-machined MAP (manifold absolute pressure) sensor in 1979. An average car today consists of over 40 different sensors, ~30% of which are micro-machined.
Application areas include
Integrated sensors for pressure (MAP, Fuel, Occupant Detection, Tire, Air Bags),
acceleration, non contact temperature, airflow, fuel flow, angular rate (Electronic
Stability Control, Roll Over) sensor.
Gas/Chemical sensors for in-cabin air quality, monitoring exhaust gas composition and
oil quality.
Actuators/valves for fuel injection
Optical/Infra-Red sensors for in-car LANs, HVAC control, Occupant Sensing, Night-
Vision and in-vehicle displays.
Polymer based sensors for humidity detection
Radar based sensors for Back-up Aid, Blind Spot Detection, and Adaptive Cruise
Control
Other Areas of Opportunities
12.3 inch reconfigurable displays for the
instrument panel
LED lighting used internal and external
lighting
Connected Vehicle
Energy Storage
and Conversion
Systems TWG
Ravi Bhatkal, Cookson
Chair
40
Background
Introduced this chapter in 2009 Roadmap
Covers batteries, both primary and secondary
(rechargeable), fuel cells and other emerging
technologies.
Broken into 3 different market areas
Consumer
Automotive
Grid Storage
3 Main Applications for Rechargeable Batteries
Source: Takeshita, IIT, 2010
Consumer electronics Transportation Utility Grid Storage
Rechargeable batteries market expected to be $36 billion by 2016
Li- ion batteries growing by ~15% annually – driven by consumer applications
Adoption of EVs would significantly increase that
Consumer Applications Dominate Li+
Consumer electronics accounts for the bulk of Li+ usage
Promising growth in transportation and utility grids by 2020
Source: IIT, Takeshita 2007, 2010
18650 is Workhorse for Consumer
Applications
Industry Drivers
Safety – too many recalls in the last decade
Capacity – break the 3 A.h. ceiling using new electrode materials
Cycle time – presently 1.5 years ->3 years
Cost – < $3.00 per 18650 and dropping at >10% p.a.
18650
Consumer Gaps
1. Lack of technical maturity for high energy
density capable electrodes, including silicon
based anodes.
2. Degradation of lithium ion batteries (low cycle
life) is still an issue.
3. Failure rates are still higher than desired.
4. Rechargeable battery recycling infrastructure
is immature.
5. Sophisticated battery management systems
are still emerging
44
Transportation: many challenges to overcome
EV/HEV market is currently limited to environmentally conscious buyers or when subsidized by governments
System integration and safety are complex tasks in transportation
Comparison of present-day Li+ batteries vs. EV goals
Transportation Current Situation
Li ion technology works, but is expensive, and does not have needed All Electric Range (AER) at a reasonable cost to meet “range anxiety” concerns Nissan Leaf has a 24KWh battery pack and costs $32,800+ and $25,300 with tax credit,
with 100 mile range.
Tesla (with 42KWh capacity) provides range but is too expensive to be a mass market vehicle.
However, China may buck the trend … BYD claims to have a 186 mile range Li ion battery EV, being put in use for fleet service.
Charging infrastructure not yet developed, but process has begun (Better Place, Aerovironment).
Grid readiness to accept large scale adoption with anytime charging of EVs and PHEVs not yet developed.
All Electric Applications in high volume are emerging … e.g. E bikes in China. There are >100 million E-bikes on the road with lead acid batteries that are fully recyclable.
Drivers for Growth Large scale adoption of EVs and PHEVs will be heavily dependent on cost
reduction and range improvement of the battery packs, as well as the price of oil. If oil prices increase on a sustained basis, it will create a significantly larger demand for EVs and PHEVs.
National security issues (dependence on foreign oil) may also drive faster development of an EV infrastructure.
Other Applications
Military & Aerospace Use Standard Material Systems for Custom Applications
Information Restricted by ITAR
Key Players: Eagle-Picher, International Battery
Medical
• Mostly for Implantable CRM (Cardiac Rhythm Management;
pacemakers, defibrillators, cardiostimulators) and Neurostimulation
• Customized; Manual Assembly
• Top Suppliers: Greatbach and Medtronic
Opportunities for IC and
Battery Management System Design
Advanced battery management systems
are needed for scalable battery systems.
Drivers and controllers for advanced
battery management systems that:
Accurately monitor “State of Charge”.
Manage power draw-down to avoid full
depletion and extend life.
Are linked to the functioning of the battery
pack at the cell level to maximize efficiency.
© 2011 XYZ, Inc. (optional)
Solid State
Illumination TWG
Marc Chason, Chair
Background
50
New chapter in 2009 identified the most critical
technologies for commercial launch and market
diffusion of SSI products
2011-2013 saw great activity in the industry Many well funded research programs : USDOE and FP7
Philips wins L-Prize for 60 watt replacement bulb
New modular light engines on the market
SSI performance continued to improve
Development of standards
2013 Roadmap underway GaN on GaN and GaN on Si substrates emerging
Chip on Board assembly (COB) emerging
51
Haitz’s Law Drives Cost Performance
Analogous to Moore’s Law for LED’s
Costs decline while performance increases
52
LED Based Devices
LED Devices continue to improve
Remote phosphor technology developing
Novel thermal management designs emerging
53
OLED Based Devices
Universal Display announces
technology and materials
license agreement with
Panasonic Idemitsu
Osram announces launch of their
OLED lighting production facility
Universal Display reports
technical performance of white
OLED that exceeds DoE
lifetime targets
Novaled develops long-life
power-efficient white PIN
OLEDs
Panasonic starts shipping
OLED lighting panels and
modules
Verbatim launches world’s first
commercially available color
tuneable OLED lighting panels
54
Comparison of LED and OLED Light Source Light Engine Luminaire
Summary of Critical Gaps and Needs
A development need for LED and OLED materials to produce high-efficiency
light sources.
Development of manufacturing processes that address the tooling, assembly
equipment and assembly processes is required for producing large volumes of
low cost LED and OLED assemblies and luminaires.
Development of thermal management technologies to dissipate heat
associated with high brightness light sources. Excess heat can lead to color
shifts and lower lifetime performance.
A need for the development of accelerated life tests appropriate for long life-
time designs. The ALT results need to be validated with real time performance
data
Development of standards to insure that public policy conforms to technical
capability.
The development of tests and standards to validate luminaire performance
claims vs. actual luminaire performance needs to be maintained as the
volume and type of product continues to increase rapidly.
55
In Summary
Summary
Medical
Automotive
Energy
Lighting
Common Themes:
Potential large volumes, Reliability, Security
Medical and Automotive in transition
Energy and Lighting are growing
New communities developing - IP still an issue
57
Summary Continued
Miniaturization through integration
More functionality in smaller volume
Sensors
MEMS
Wireless connectivity
Energy Efficiency
Better Battery technologies
Battery Management Systems
Lighting control systems
58
Speaker contact info Grace O’Malley
– Europe
Chuck Richardson
Thank You!