December 2011 Inflation Watch

An Eye on PricesDecember 19, 2011

Next Release: January 20, 2011

Inflation Watch

• Inflation (price-level growth) is important for REALTORS® because it can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

• Generally, the FOMC lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, rates that are too low may lead to inflation. To combat inflation, the central bank increases interest rates but this policy may dampen economic growth.

• For example, the FOMC has committed to keeping rates low through mid-2013 to help shore up economic activity, but this commitment comes with its own set of risks.

Inflation Watch

• During the recent financial crisis, fears of deflation (price-level decline) were rampant. (Deflation caused a downward spiral of prices that destroyed the economy in the Great Depression.)

• With financial markets somewhat stable, some fear that inflation is around the corner. Stagflation, another unpleasant economic condition characterized by high unemployment and high inflation, is also a possibility.

• In stagflation, it is difficult for the central bank to raise interest rates to combat inflation due fear of further job market deterioration if demand is hurt by the increased interest rates.

December 2011 Highlights

• Price growth in the month of November continued to moderate or decline in a variety of measures such as lodging away from home, food prices, and home fuels and utilities. This caused the overall headline measure to be flat in the month. However, strong price growth in previous months means that prices are still noticeably higher than one year ago.

• While core (those excluding food and energy) and headline consumer prices are within the bounds of the target range: 1 to 2 and 2 to 4 percent respectively, they are continue to near the upper edge of the bound. November’s relaxation in price growth means that the Fed will likely continue the low-rate policy to which it is committed through mid-2013.

• Some consumer prices are advancing at a considerable rate. Necessities such as transportation, food at home, and hospital services are areas of concern.

Indicator Source and definitionMonthly Change

Annual Change

Concern ?

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

BLS, Price change of consumer goods and services

0.0% 3.4% Maybe

CPI Core BLS, CPI less food and energy 0.2% 2.2% MaybeCPI Housing (owners’ equivalent rent)

BLS, CPI housing component (primary residence)

0.1% 1.7% No

Producer Price Index (PPI)

BLS, Price changes domestic producers receive for their output

0.3% 5.7% Maybe

PPI Core BLS, PPI less food and energy 0.1% 2.9% MaybePPI Crude Materials BLS, PPI crude / raw materials 3.8% 15.1% YesPPI Residential Construction

BLS, PPI BRES 0.0% 5.5% Maybe

Gold WSJ, Price per ounce of gold 5.6% 26.3% YesWest Texas Crude Oil WSJ, Price per barrel of oil 12.5% 15.5% Yes

Import PricesBLS, Trade-weighted index measures prices of imported goods & services

0.7% 9.9% Yes

Construction Cost Index

Census, constant quality, new single family homes under construction

0.4% 1.7% Maybe

Consumer and Producer Price Change Overview

IndicatorChange from

previous monthChange from previous year

Concern?

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 0.0% 3.4% MaybeLodging away from home -0.1% 3.1% MaybeFood at home -0.1% 5.9% YesMeats, poultry, fish and eggs -0.1% 6.9% YesHousing fuels and utilities -0.3% 3.4% MaybeHousehold furnishings & operations

0.0% 0.8% No

Transportation -0.8% 8.0% YesMedical care 0.4% 3.4% MaybeHospital and related services 0.7% 5.5% YesEducation 0.5% 4.7% YesAirline fare 0.0% 7.1% MaybePersonal Computers and peripheral equipment

0.5% -12.2% No

Apparel 0.6% 4.8% Yes

Looking at the CPI in More Depth