information | analytics | expertise noevember a fistful of ... · world’s largest electronics...

NOEVEMBER 2015

A FISTFUL OF COMPOSITES ...

…AND A FEW TONS MORE

Information | Analytics | Expertise

Dr. Mark Morgan, MD, IHS Chemical, EMEA

+44 (0) 1344 328341

[email protected]

© 2015 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

A PRESENTATION FOR THE

ADVANCED

ENGINEERING UK

EVENT 2015

© 2014 IHS

IHS Chemical

ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015

Themes Covered

IHS and the Chemical Value Chain

Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics

and Composites

The Automotive Challenge

The Role of Renewables on

Composites for Automotive

Next Generation Composites

Conclusions

2

© 2014 IHS

IHS Chemical


Themes Covered



and Composites





Conclusions

3

© 2014 IHS


4

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

100+ years’ experience delivering unrivaled news, insight and intelligence on defense and security equipment, markets, industries and risk

CHEMICAL

Over 200 leading industry authorities creating integrated views and analysis across more than 300 chemical markets and 2,000 processes for 95 industries

FINANCE Research on 200+ countries and territories with harmonized indicators from IHS analysts and economists

TECHNOLOGY

World’s largest electronics component database with more than 350 million parts

AUTOMOTIVE

The world’s largest team of automotive analysts with hundreds of experts located in 15 key markets around the world covering the entire automotive value chain

ENERGY

Extensive Oil & Gas

well information on

5.5+ million wells

worldwide dating

back as far as 1860

MARITIME

World’s largest maritime database with an information gathering heritage of 250+ years with comprehensive information on all vessels 100 GT and over

CARBON FIBRE APPLICATION

© 2014 IHS

Interconnections within IHS and Links to IHS Chemical


5

Agriculture

Electronics

& Telecom

Government

Metals &

Mining Healthcare

Financial

Military

&

Security

Chemicals

Automotive

Energy

Coal

Transportation

Shipping

Aerospace

& Defense

Construction

Power &

Utilities

Energy

Oil &

Gas

Consumer

& Retail

IHS Chemical is linked

upstream into energy,

refined products and

downstream into

aerospace, automotive,

defence and consumer

industries.

© 2014 IHS

Composites

Compounds

Fabrication

Tooling

The combination of IHS Chemical & IHS AD&M covers costs in defence supply chain from raw materials to platforms

6

Refining Petrochemical

Industry

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Advanced Plastics, PEEK, etc

Carbon Fibres

Aramid/UHMWPE Fibres

Specialised Epoxy Resins

Coal (China)

Aviation Primary

& Secondary

Structures

Individual Protection

Composite AVF Armour Battlefield

Electronics

New Platform Development

Survivability Systems

IHS Chemical already provides consulting & subscription services to many chemicals that serve

the defence & aerospace industry covering the value chain as far as fabrication in some cases:

• On a global and regional basis, IHS Chemical tracks, models and forecasts markets, production costs,

technology developments, together with price and margin forecasts for multiple chemicals including

advanced materials and composites. Its client base is very broad but includes:

‒ Carbon fibre producers: Toray, Hexcel, Cytec, Mitsubishi, Dow/Akza, etc.

‒ Aramid/UHMWPE producers: Teijin, DuPont, Honeywell, DSM, etc.

‒ Specialty epoxy resin producers: Cytec, Huntsman, Momentive, etc.

‒ Advanced plastics producers: Victrex, Solvay, Sabic, BASF, Toray, etc.

‒ Composites and fabricators: Gurit, ATK, Goodrich, Tencate, etc.

• The tie-up with IHS AD&M (formerly IHS Jane’s) provides an extension of the value chain to take cost,

price and market analysis down the chain in project costs, budgets and margins for OEMS, defence

contractors through to client/principals, government agencies, etc.


© 2014 IHS

IHS Chemical


Themes Covered



and Composites





Conclusions

7

© 2014 IHS

As an example , the carbon fiber value chain is complex


8

Carbon Fiber

Producer Filament,

Tow, Cut Tow

Pre-preg Manufacturer

Weavers, Knitters,

and Other Finishers of Dry Fibers

Filament Winders

Pultruders Others

Fabricator Molder

Original

Equipment Manufacturer

Specialty Engineering

Design Companies

End-Use Manufacturer

Aircraft, Aerospace & Military

Sports and

Recreation

Industrial Automotive

Other Commercial

IHS Chemical can model each step of the

supply chain and provide an independent

view of cost to OEMs and parties along

the chain

© 2014 IHS

Advanced plastics also serve defence, Aerospace Sectors as well as automotive for specific lightweighting solutions

9

Defence & Aerospace span Multiple Application Segments

LDPE

Amorphous Semi-Crystalline

PVC

PS

PA66

PEEK

PP

LLDPE

ABS

HDPEHIPS

HPPA

PPSPSU

PEI

PES

PC

PC/ABSPMMA

ABS/PAPOM

PPE

PC/PET

TPE

PBT

Increasing

Performance/

Price

Ultra-high performance

polymer market around

720 000 metric tons

Engineering

Thermoplastics

~12 million metric tons

Commodity Polymers

~200 million metric tons

Classification of Engineering

Plastics


© 2014 IHS


• In aerospace, tier 2 composite producers and Tier 3 providers of fibres and pre-

pregs are looking for new and improved performance from upstream materials:

‒ Tencate offers thermoplastic pre-pregs based on PEI and PPS

‒ Cytec offers thermoplastic pre-pregs based on PEEK and PEKK

‒ Hexcel offers a range of ATP pre-pregs

• There are a limited number of advanced polymer producers:

‒ PEKK: Cytek and Solvay

‒ PEEK: Victrex, Evonik, Solvay and now Dalian Polymer

‒ PEI: Sabic Innovative Plastics

‒ LCPs: Sumitomo and Solvay

‒ PPS: Solvay and Toray

‒ PSU/PES: Solvay, BASF and Sumitomo

• In the automotive sector there is a drive to combine advanced fibres more middle

tier engineering polymers as well as thermosets like unsaturated polyesters.

10

As OEMs look for higher temperature performance there is increased focus on advanced thermoplastics

© 2014 IHS 11

Forecasting Carbon Fibre and Composite Pricing

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Acrylonitrile, 300 ktpa Carbon Fibre, 5 ktpa

Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs

Depreciation SG&A TS&D

Aircraft/Aerospace

19%

Renewable Energy

17%

Other Industrial

17%

Sports Goods/Others

12%

Civil Engineering

10%

Automotive9%

PressureVessels, etc

7%

Oil and Gas7%

Marine2%

N. America32%

W. Europe35%

China18%

Japan8%

Other Asia4%

ROW3%

Carbon Fibre Production Costs

Building Block Pricing

Carbon Fibre Markets

• Most carbon fibre production is based on a

carbon fibre building block. Most CF

producers and some customers buy the

IHS Chemical program for acrylonitrile to

help understand future costs and pricing.


© 2014 IHS

Understanding Market Dynamics, e.g., PPS

Understanding Market dynamics and Upstream Supply Chain are Key to Modelling Costs of Building Blocks and Products

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

40

80

120

160

200

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Electrical/Electronic AutomotiveMechanical/industrial Aerospace/OthersFirm Capacity Hypothetical Capacity

Ma

rke

t, 0

00

me

tric

to

ns

Ind

us

try O

pe

rati

ng

Ra

te (

%)

Recession Impact

Automotive

Demand Driver

New Toray

Capacity in Korea

Salt

Power Chloralkali

Benzene Chlorobenzenes

Caustic Soda

Chlorine

SteamCracker

Refinery

Na2S

Polymerisation

p-Dichlorobenzene

o-Dichlorobenzene

Chlorobenzene

Polyphenylene

Sulphide

Understanding the Supply Chain, e.g., PPS • Using polyphenylene sulphide (“PPS”) as

an example, IHS Chemical develops a

detailed view of market dynamics, demand

segmentation, new investment, plant

utilization, etc.

• Factors from this analysis drive techno-

economic models for PPS production.

• Understand the upstream supply chain

from crude oil, natural gas, etc., through

the production of building blocks and

intermediates also provides a key platform

for forecasting production costs and prices

by region and even by producer if

required.


© 2014 IHS


13

High Performance Thermoplastics – Key Markets

Industry Key Growth Drivers

Electronics Continuing drive for miniaturization

Higher temperature generation and greater stresses

Desire for higher quality and reliability

Growing market concern over flame retardants

More extreme processing conditions

Lower systems costs

Greater concerns over electromagnetic and radio frequency interference (EMI/RFI) shielding

Greater automation with emphasis on cost reduction

Automotive Continuing replacement of metals with plastics to light-weight parts

Greater use of electrical or hybrid vehicles

More stringent OEM requirements

Lower systems costs

Greater environmental considerations

Aircraft/Aerospace Greater use of thermoplastic parts and composites for light weighting

Medical Devices Continuing replacement of metals

Use of more aggressive cleaners and disinfectants

Demand for more comfortable instruments and tools by practitioners

Materials that show some product differentiation through visual effects

More efficient processing procedures including inventory tracking

© 2014 IHS


14

High Performance Thermoplastics – Key Players with Solvay Emerging as Multiple Product Supplier

Thermo-

Aromatic High Sulfone plastic

Polyketones Performance PAs LCPs PAR PCT PPS Polymers Polyimides

United States

Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP X

Cytec Engineered Materials Inc. X

DuPont X X

Eastman Chemical X

Fortron Industriesb X

MGC Advanced Polymers X

SABIC Innovative Plastics X

Solvay Advanced Polymers, Inc. X X X X X

Ticona LLCb X X

Western Europe

BASF Aktiengesellschaft X X

DSM NV X

EMS-GRIVORY X

Solvay Advanced Polymers GmbH X

Victrex plc X

Overview of Producers of High Performance Thermoplastics a

a. Includes only resin production; excludes regional compounding and distribution activities.

b. Fortron Industries is a 50/50 joint venture of Ticona and Kureha Chemical Industry. The joint venture manufactures PPS; Ticona is responsible for

compounding and marketing the product in the United States.

X

CP Chem Sells PPS

to Solvay in Q4/2014

Solvay acquires

Cytek, Aug 215

© 2014 IHS

Wider Established and Emerging Applications for Composites


15

Source: Toray

© 2014 IHS

IHS Chemical


Themes Covered



and Composites





Conclusions

16

© 2014 IHS

IHS Chemical has developed process models for each step of the composites chain


17

These cost models in conjunction with

forecasts of feedstocks, energy, market

dynamics can be used to develop price

forecasts for different carbon fibre

products.

Raw Materials

Precursor Carbon Fibre Pre-preg Producer

Compounder Moulder Fabricator OEM Client/

Principal

Acrylonitrile Methyl acrylate Methacrylic acid Mesophase pitch Cellulose Additives

Rayon Fibre Acrylic Fibre Pitch Fibres Oxidized Fibres

Variable Modulus Carbon Fibres Graphite Fibres Sized/Unsized Additives

Carbon Fibres Graphite Fibres Epoxies Advanced ETPS Advanced Fibres

© 2014 IHS

BMW/SGL Carbon is leading the way in structural carbon fibre use in the automotive industry for affordable platforms

18

IHS Chemical has looked at different

approaches to carbon fibre pre-preg use in

the automotive industry:

• For many years carbon fibre composite use

for the construction industry was limited to

“super” cars like the Lamboughini Aventador

with short series lengths of 200+ units per

year.

• Longer series lengths, lower cost carbon

fibre and improved automobile design,

together with a continued effort in “Light-

Weighting”, has lead to the developments in

automobile with structural carbon fibre use.

• Reducing carbon footprint too is a major

drive through hybrid EV developments and a

wider range of commercial EVs.

• While the BMW i8 remains in the high

performance sports car sector, the BMW i3

represents a more mainstream affordable

electric car platform with an estimated 300

kg of carbon fibre per vehicle.

• SLGL/BMW operates an extended supply

chain from Japan through the U.S to

Germany across multiple process stages of

fibre, composite and automobile fabrication.

CF Precursor From

MRC-SGL Japan

Fibre SGL Carbon Moses Lake

WN, USA

CF Fabric SGL-BMW

Wackersdorf, Germany

CFRP SGL-BMW Landshut, Germany

Assembly BMW

Leipzig, Germany

Photo Source: carandriver.com

i3

i8

Alfa Romeo 4C Diseno, 885 kg

Lamboughini, Aventador, 1625 kg Unladed Weight, 1490 kg

Unladed Weight, 1270 kg


http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=OEtgQUPm_Arm5M&tbnid=oZxzdLZn8JWVGM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.caranddriver.com/bmw/i3&ei=Kpi6U9z2NK_I8AG054HwBQ&bvm=bv.70138588,d.b2U&psig=AFQjCNENGUOfiZvzxwZ1HLc0mHXv2f45kA&ust=1404823963294997

http://www.motortrend.com/photo_gallery/coupes/1201_lamborghini_aventador_photo_gallery/photo_01.html

© 2014 IHS

In automotive CF-Pre-pregs are in common use in performance cars, e.g. products from Plasan in the U.S.

19

SRT Viper

Hood: 17.2 kg

Roof Assembly: 5.4 kg

Light gate 4.1 kg

Total: 26.7 kg/vehicle

Corvette Stingray

Rocker: 0.5 kg

Hood: 5.4 kg

Fender 1.8 kg

Roof Assembly: 5.9 kg

Roof Bow Cover: 1.4 kg

Splitter 0.6 kg


Shelby Mustang

GT500KR

Splitter 0.6 kg


IHS Chemical has looked at different

approaches to carbon fibre pre-preg use in

the automotive industry:

• In the United States as an example, the

major carbon fibre and pre-preg producer

Toray Americas, Inc., has formed a joint

venture with Plasan Americas, call Plasan

Carbon Composites making body parts for

high performance vehicles.

• Combining IHS Automotive production

forecasts and IHS Chemical processing

knowledge, by the end of the decade

Around 948 metric tons of composites will

be used in platforms like those shown

opposite.

• In many automotive companies carbon

fibre use is still embryonic with ongoing

concerns over costs and safety in a

generally conservative industry.

• In the U.S., however, platforms like the

Tesla Roadster will increasingly look to

carbon fibre light-weighting solutions. This

could push carbon fibre pre-preg demand

beyond the 1650 metric ton level by 2020.

Source: Plasan Carbon Composites




© 2014 IHS

Further Innovations in Automotive Design to Incorporate Composites – Advances from Toray

20


© 2014 IHS

Any forecast regarding future technology and material adoption needs to take into account the “boundary conditions”

21


• Global emission standards are all edging towards greater restrictions on pollutants as

discrepancies between requirements between different regions of the world are getting

smaller and smaller

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

US (FTP75/US06)

Europe (NEDC)

Japan (JC08)

China (NEDC)

S.Korea (NEDC)

CO

2 (

g/k

m)

No

rma

lize

d to

NE

DC

Te

st C

ycle

93

g/k

m

30

g/k

m

172 g/km

107 g/km

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US T II B8 Tier II Bin 5 Tier II Bin 4

Europe Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

Japan Japan ‘05 Japan ’09

S. Korea Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

China (Beijing)

Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

21

© 2014 IHS

Composite is one of many Approaches being Considered by OEMs to meet the Legislation Targets of the Future


22

There are multiple approaches to reach the target as follows:

Technology Gain

• Tire Rolling Resistance: 1-3%

• Parasitic Loss Reduction 1-3%

• Aerodynamics 1-2%

• Reducing Power <10%

• Weight (Primary)

• “Right-sizing”

~20-25%

“Nanotechnology in Tyres”

“Anti-friction Coatings on

Moving Parts”

“Advanced Plastics in Load-

Bearing Parts”

“Improved Aerodynamic

Design, e.g. Wiper Blades”

“Enlightened

Design, e.g. Nissan”

There are Abundant Examples Today

“Ever- Plastic-Intense

Electronic Components” “Shale Gas and NGVs”

© 2014 IHS

IHS Automotive provides parts analysis for multiple light vehicle platforms

PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014

23

© 2014 IHS

IHS Chemical


Themes Covered



and Composites





Conclusions

24

© 2014 IHS 25

Emerging Bio-Based Chemical Building Blocks

In addition to a well-established industry of

natural oil conversion into alcohols, nylon

feedstocks, etc., access to competitive sugar

sources in part drives the development of

novel bio-chemical building blocks

C2

C5

C4

C3

C6+

Ethylene Ethylene Glycol

Propylene Glycol 1,3-Propanediol

1,4-Butanediol Isobutanol

Isoprene

Adipic Acid para-Xylene

Braskem Greencol, India Glycols

ADM, Oleon DuPont Tate & Lyle

Genomatica/Novamont Butamax, Gevo

DuPont/Goodyear Ajinomoto/Bridgestone

Rennovia, Verdezyne Gevo, Virent Energy


© 2014 IHS 26

Durable Bio-Based Polymers

IHS Chemical has undertaken major

consulting projects in bio-based durable

polymers, especially given the cost-effective

bio-butanediol is now available

• Bio-based nylons like 6-12, 6-10, 11,

etc., are also examples of bio-based

polymers with monomers based on

sugars and also natural oil derivatives

like sebacic acid

• IHS Chemical has worked on the

development of many polymers in this

class:

Polytrimethylene terephthalate for carpet

yarns

Isosorbide polycarbonate

for touch screens

Bio-based nylon resins

for auto parts


© 2014 IHS 27


Polycarbonate

Polyesters Polyacetal Analoges

Unsaturated

Polyesters

Epoxy

Resins

Polyamide

Analoges

Succinates/

Adipates

Thermoplastic

Polyurethanes

PEEK

Analoges

Pyrrolidone

Analoges

Phenoxy Copolymers

PPS Analoges

Copolyesters Adipates

O

OH

OH

O

O

Polyaramid Analoges

New Monomers = New Opportunities - FDCA

© 2014 IHS 28


ISOSORBIDE

POLYCARBONATE

POLYMETHYL

METHACRYLATE

POLYSTYRENE

CYCLIC OLEFIN

COPOLYMERS

CORN

WHEAT

SUGARCANE GREEN

POLYCARBONATE

New Monomers = New Opportunities

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Isosorbide.svg

© 2014 IHS 29


Routes to Green Polycarbonate

Sugars Sorbitol

Melt-Phase

Polycarbonate

Personal care

Food/Confectionary

Polyether Polyols

Surfactants, Pharma, Vitamin C, etc.

Cyclohexane

Dimethanol

Dimethyl

Terephthalate

Diphenyl

Carbonate Phenol

Ethylene oxide

CO2

Methanol

DURABIO™

Specialty Polyesters

Isosorbide

Specialty Polyesters

Polyurethanes

Epoxy Resins, etc.

© 2014 IHS 30


Cost of Green Polycarbonate – More Work to Do

U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton

Note: All plants at 200 000 metric tons per year capacity with technoeconomics for average 2019, USGC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Interfacial Average Melt Process Average Bio-Based

Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs

Depreciation Low Range High Range

© 2014 IHS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nanotube Fibre 2 ktpaNet Raw Materials Utilities

Fixed Costs Depreciation

SG&A TS&D


32

Looking to the Future – Nano-Carbon Fibre for Composites

$US per kilo

Applications – Defence, Aerospace, Mars Mission, Smart Fabrics, Automotive, Architectural Solutions, etc.

Plant Gate

Cost

Post

Production

Costs

Projected Potential Fibre Price End Markets C60,

C90, C120 Fullerenes

© 2014 IHS

In conclusion


34

• Composites have a tremendous growth trajectory across multiple industries, aerospace, automotive, energy, etc. The Asia-Pacific region is also developing its composite business rapidly from a small base.

• There is increased interest in thermoplastic based systems as well as thermosets leading to combining more conventional engineering polymers as well as the advanced polymers known for these applications.

• Value chains are complex and a detailed understanding of cost structure important to position composites for an industry like automotive that is renowned for its cost sensitivity. Supply chain security is also vital.

• Composites are just one of many lines of development automotive OEMs are using to meet emissions targets today and in the future.

• Renewables with access to new materials with potential for composites use can combine greener manufacturing with an effective price-performance trade-off.

• Over the medium term more exciting materials are on the horizon, but their cost, at least initially, is probably not affordable for automotive OEMs, save supercars and Formula 1®.

• Materials and manufacturing techniques need to continue their evolution to meet the performance challenges of the future.

information | analytics | expertise noevember a fistful of ... · world’s largest electronics...

Documents