Robert David Steele (Vivas)1

Intelligence & Information Operations (I2O) with its foundation, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) will demand 80% of any leader’s time henceforth.  80% of the relevant information will not be secret, online, in English, or available from the secret Intelligence Community. At the strategic level, I2O is about understanding the costs of the ten threats, the savings that can be achieved by the twelve policies, and the profits available to our Common Humanity if we help the eight challengers avoid our many mistakes. At the operational level, the next wars will not be won if we allow our selves to blur the  lines between outright Lies, Propaganda or Psychological Operations  (PSYOP), and Public Relations (PR) Only truth rapidly discovered, discriminated, distilled, and disseminated, will re-capture and retain the moral high ground and win World War III. This is a 100-year six-front war of belief systems at the sub-state level, waged via global coverage, real-time sense-making, and ”by name” targeting. Significantly, the socio-economics and the ideo-demographics of I2O are dramatically different from the Cold War era—bureaucrats with clearances are devalued, while citizen volunteers and international observers and experts render contributions here-to-fore impossible to access or integrate. Most of these contributions are free of

1 Robert Steele is a retired USMC infantry & intelligence officer, a veteran of the CIA’s clandestine service, and the senior civilian founder of the Marine Corps Intelligence Center, in 1988. He has written four books on intelligence reform, and sponsors an annual conference on reality. Visit www.oss.net.

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cost, while creating socio-economic wealth vastly more valuable than the for-fee services of traditional vendors. I2O is means by which we save the Whole Earth.

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Table of Contents

Introduction to Intelligence & Information Operations (I2O).......................................................................3Figure 1: The Seven Generations of Warfare.......................................................................................3Figure 2: OSINT Relevance to Global Security Threats.....................................................................4

Grand Strategy & The Application of I2O....................................................................................................6Figure 3: Grand Strategy & The Application of I2O...........................................................................6

I2O Socio-Economics & Ideo-Demographics...............................................................................................7Figure 4: I2O Socio-Economics & Ideo-Demographics.......................................................................7

Human Belief Systems...................................................................................................................................8Figure 5: Threats to the 20% We Know From the Information Technology Itself ..............................8Figure 6: Competing for Attention & Resources................................................................................11

The Smart Nation Act..................................................................................................................................13I2O in War & Peace (Six Fronts, 100 Years)..............................................................................................14

Strategic Generalizations about Reality..................................................................................................1510 Threats, 12 Policies, 8 Challengers....................................................................................................15

Figure 7: Unified Threat, Policy, and Challenger I2O Matrix............................................................16Predicting and Managing Instability (Revolution Matrix)......................................................................17

Figure 8: Monitoring, Understanding, and Stabilizing Pre-Conditions of Revolution.......................18Levels of Analysis...................................................................................................................................19

Figure 9: Levels & Domains of Analysis for Integrated I2O .............................................................19Tribes and Coalitions...............................................................................................................................20Serious Games and Reality-Based Budgeting.........................................................................................20

Roadmap for I2O.........................................................................................................................................21Figure 10: The Future Global Intelligence Architecture....................................................................22Figure 11: The Four Intelligence &Information Quadrants................................................................23Figure 12: The Eight Functionalities of the I2O World Brain Implementation..................................24Figure 13: WIki-Calc Plan for Saving the World...............................................................................25Figure 14: Using Information to Achieve Progress............................................................................26

Conclusion...................................................................................................................................................26Figure 15: The Defunct Secret Intelligence Mess ..............................................................................27Figure 16: Preview of the Earth Intelligence Network .....................................................................27

About the AuthorRobert David Steele (Vivas) has roots in Scotland and England on his father’s side, and in Colombia and the Catelan region of Spain on his mother’s side. He is natural citizen of the United States of America, resident in Virginia. After a lifetime overseas, including ten years in Asia and ten in Latin America, he became a Marine Corps infantry officer, then a service-level intelligence plans officer. From there he moved to become a clandestine case officer for the Central Intelligence Agency, serving three back-to-back clandestine tours and three Headquarters tours. He has programmed for future imagery architectures, helped support strategic signals operations, managed global counterintelligence operations, and explored advanced information technology applications for secret operations and analysis. He was the senior civilian responsible for founding the Marine Corps Intelligence Command, and as a result of that experience subsequently has spent eighteen years educating over 40 governments on the importance of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT). With this paper, he begins a new long-term focus on creating public intelligence in the public interest, via the non-profit Earth Intelligence Network (EIN). He is married with three children, all of them digital natives with a healthy scorn for industrial era sources & methods. They are the future, and they will enter the future with an open mind, with global access and shared tools the secret world cannot fathom.

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Introduction to Intelligence & Information Operations (I2O)

WORLD WAR III, LIKE I AND II: neither necessary nor accidental. It is a continuation of a long-running three-way conflict for power among a handful of banking families, varied governments, and the publics of the world, most of the latter suffering the looting of their natural resources and cultural heritages, stolen in an informal but systematic secret campaign to leverage war and pestilence in order to create excessive profit for the few, and unaccountable misery for the many. 2 Behind the global class war3

of elites bribing elites, all of whom sell out their publics, is a greater cancer, the 300-500 wealthiest and the secret societies they use to “harvest” profit from a planet they believe they own, all humans as their slaves. This statement is intended to shock. It is plausible, but for lack of comprehensive and consistent attention to “ground truth” going back 200 years, we cannot actually prove it. Our task is to be able to do so in the future.

The complete integration of Intelligence & Information Operations (I2O) is the anti-thesis to this perennial attack on humanity, leading to a synthesis of peace and prosperity. 4 I2O is seventh generation total war for the permanent peace.5 The first six levels as defined by Dr. Max Manwaring, Col, USA (Ret), are illustrated in Figure 1 below, with only the last being our own contribution, in bold italics.6

2 “Follow the money” is not an idle phrase. There is an extremely rich literature that has been ignored by U.S. Intelligence and the Information Operations world that bears on this, at least with respect to following traditional money, it is called the “Sociology of Money.” Representative works including the original classic, Greg Simmel, Philosophie des Geldes/The Philosophy of Money (Leipzig: Duncker & Humboldt, 1900); a recent review of the literature stemming from that book, Mathier Deflem, “The Sociology of the Sociology of Money: Simmel and the Contemporary Battle of the Classics,” Journal of Classical Sociology 3/1 (2003), pp. 67-96 http://tinyurl.com/yyjhcu; and Wayne E. Baker and Jason B. Jimerson, “The Sociology of Money,” American Behavioral Scientist 35/6 (July 1992), pp. 678-693 http://tinyurl.com/y2or5l. Traditional scholarship does focus on informal banking (e.g. the halawa system) as well as global fraud and tax avoidance, but the craft of intelligence (requirements definition, collection management, source discovery and validation, multi-source fusion, compelling presentation for action) has never been applied to this fundamental aspect of the “order of battle” that will determine whether money helps or hurts the larger public interest. OSS.Net, Inc. and its international partners have pioneered deep studies of patronage systems (e.g. Syria) to understand both the inter-locking personal relationships across political, military, religious, and other boundaries, and internationally, to find the assets that generally represent theft from the commonwealth for the exclusive benefit of specific corrupt individuals or families.3 The leading current reference is Jeff Faux, The Global Class War : How America's Bipartisan Elite Lost Our Future - and What It Will Take to Win it Back (Wiley, 2006), which documents how US and European elites bribe other elites who all too eagerly sell out their own publics. A related useful reference, perhaps 80% credible, is John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2004). A specific reference on how Wall Street treats individual investors as disposable cannon fodder whose pockets can be picked (it’s called “exploding the client”) is that of Mark Lewis, Liar’s Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street (Penguin, 1990). The references on predatory corporations such as Exxon, Wal-Mart, and others are legion. All books cited have been reviewed at Amazon by the author, where summative reviews containing highlights are easily found.4 I2O is the path to informed democracy and moral communal capitalism such that fraud, waste, and abuse are eliminated, and all individuals everywhere are afforded equal opportunities to achieve life, liberty, and happiness (the intelligence interpretation of the latter element of the Declaration of Independence equates it to fulfillment or achievement, not vacuous joy alone).5 I am indebted to Mr. Jock Gill, former communications assistant to President Bill Clinton, for his review of this paper. He points out that I2O is also ideally suited, drawing on legal and ethical sources as it does, for developing a more profound appreciation of our domestic demographic and class conflicts. He also points out that America continues to operate on the war metaphor—war on drugs, on poverty, on terrorism, etc. We are in agreement that I2O breaks the shackles of the past, outs those who would foster war for profit, and redirects most of our energies

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First Generation Low-Tech AttritionSecond Generation Relatively Higher Tech Attrition and/or ManeuverThird Generation From Hard to Soft Power From Force to Brain PowerFourth Generation Non-State Threats AsymmetryFifth Generation Information and High-Tech Knowledge & Technology & OrganizationSixth Generation Military-Technology Revolution Bio-InformationalSeventh Generation Belief Systems & Global Accountability All Information, All Languages, All the Time

Figure 1: The Seven Generations of Warfare

toward waging peace intelligently and sustainably.6 Dr. Manwaring is the dean of generational concepts. His six generations of warfare were presented to the author’s international conference in 2003, a briefing readily available via http://www.oss.net/LIBRARY, searching for Manwaring 2003.

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General Smedley Butler, among a handful of Marines most decorated in their respective generations, is on record as saying “War is a racket….War is largely a matter of money. Bankers lend money to foreign countries and when they cannot pay [it back], the President sends Marines to get it.” General Butler is also on record as saying that he did not enjoy being an enforcer for U.S. corporations looting Third World countries under the protection of the U.S. Marines.7

It is not possible to review all the facts in the public record in this brief proposal for conceptual and doctrinal change. Suffice to say that just under 800 non-fiction books reviewed by the author at Amazon,8

all conclude, in general terms, the following:1) Information openly available in all languages now allows us to follow the money, make politics

and budgeting transparent, achieve early warning9 of emerging threats while recognizing the negative implications of inappropriate behavior10 at home and abroad, and consequently, to implement “peaceful preventive measures,”11 applying information as a substitute for violence, capital, and labor,12 thus creating infinite wealth13 that will stabilize and reconstruct equitable sustainable society across the globe.

2) Secret intelligence is not only not helping, ignoring the realities of secret society banking campaigns, related white-collar crime,14 and the corruption of all political parties, but it is pathologically inept and grotesquely expensive because of its focus on secret systems that create profit for the military-industrial complex, rather than sense-making and public intelligence that is actionable by all relevant parties.15

7 Smedley Butler, War is a Racket: The Anti-War Classic by America's Most Decorated General (Feral House, 2003). The general itemizes specific expeditionary operations and their relation to protecting U.S. corporate investments instead of U.S. national interests. He does not address the issue of “blow-back” or anti-Americanism arising from abusive and intrusive U.S. actions. The author’s list of books on Blow-Back, Dissent, and International Relations is at http://tinyurl.com/yjkejn. 8 The author has 3,000 books in his library, but did not start posting reviews until Amazon became an option. For 799 reviews, most non-fiction, visit http://tinyurl.com/7qlpr. For structured lists spanning information, intelligence, emerging threats, strategy & force structure, blow-back, and varied other topics, visit http://tinyurl.com/fbqb8. 9 Cf. Kristan J. Wheaton, The Warning Solution: Intelligent Analysis in the Age of Information Overload (AFCEA International Press, 2001).10 Steele’s List of Books on Blow-Back, Dissent, and International Relations is at http://tinyurl.com/yjkejn. 11 This term appears in General Al Gray (then Commandant of the Marine Corps), “Global Intelligence Challenges of the 1990’s,” published in the American Intelligence Journal (Winter 1989-1990. From 1988 to 1992 Marine Corps leadership, prompted by the author, understood that we needed to redirect national intelligence toward revolution, terrorism, and sources of instability, and also understood that open sources of information, not exploited then nor today, could provide 80% of what we needed to know. After four years of trying to achieve reform from within, the author gave up, resigned, and took his vision and campaign public. It takes 25 years to move the beast. This is year 18.12 The first expression of this concept can be found in Alvin Toffler, PowerShift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Power at the Edge of the 21st Century (Bantam, 1991).13 The top books on the concept of infinite wealth from information and knowledge are respectively those by Barry Carter, Infinite Wealth: A New World of Collaboration and Abundance in the Knowledge Era (Butterworth-Heinemann, 1999); several books by Thomas Stewart, especially The Wealth of Knowledge: Intellectual Capital and the 21st Century Organization (Currency, 2003); Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth (Knoph, 2006); and most recently, Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom (Yale, 2006). The three core concepts are that truth dramatically lowers costs and eliminates waste; that information can be shared infinitely without depriving anyone of value; and that social production by the many is vastly more effective and lower in cost than paid production, yielding infinite returns via open source software principles.14 It is well-documented in the literature that white-collar crime receives virtually no substantive attention from the Department of Justice, and that when convictions are actually obtained, “settlements” are a generally a tiny fraction

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3) Morality and meaning are the foundation of I2O. Morality has a strategic value of incalculable proportions,16 and any obfuscation of the meaning of language is nothing more than a nuance on lying17 to ourselves, on “cooking the books” as we did in both Viet-Nam18 and in the decision to invade Iraq.19 The American media is badly under-reporting or falsely reporting on reality—one genocide instead of seventeen, 2 wars instead of the 27 or so that are extant, and so on. I2O gets us back in touch with reality. As I like to say, mutating Trotsky on war,

You may not be interested in reality, but reality is surely interested in you.

of the actual wrong-doing. Cf. Kurt Eichenwald, The Informant (Broadway, 2000), and (about Enron), Conspiracy of Fools: A True Story (Broadway, 2005). See also Lawrence Mitchell, Corporate Irresponsibility (Yale, 2001). This cascades down, creating a “cheating culture,” as documented by David Callahan, The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are Doing Wrong to Get Ahead (Harcourt, 2004).15 Annotated bibliographies in the author’s first two books include over 300 book reviews focused specifically on information and intelligence, and his negative judgments on secret intelligence, while ignored or disputed, are beyond intelligent negation, not least because both the past and serving Chairmen of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) honored the two books with a Foreword—Senator David Born (D-OK) the first, and Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) the second. We should all remember the warning issued by President and General Dwight Eisenhower with respect to the potential threat of the military-industrial (today military-industrial-prison) complex. Prisons provide slave labor to that complex.16 This observation, while appearing across the literature, is most succinctly and authoritatively presented by Will and Ariel Durant in The Lessons of History (MJF, 1997). This generation of readers may need to be reminded that they wrote the ten-volume History of Civilization, an endeavor not yet surpassed by anyone. I refer to a balanced moderate morality, a live and let live Golden Rule kind of morality, not to the intolerant “one truth” morality of either the American fundamentalists or the Islamic fundamentalists.17 This point has been articulated very pointedly by Salmon Rushdie in lectures, one of which was shown on CSPAN-2 the evening of 28 October 2006. In that lecture, the details of which are not recollected, he specifically said that political language, language that obfuscates meaning, must be rejected. As an example, he put forward the word “rendition” as actually meaning “to export people to be tortured by others.”18 The seminal work on cooking the books in Vietnam is George Allen’s NONE SO BLIND: A Personal Account of the Intelligence Failure in Vietnam (Ivan R. Dee, 2001). Allen spent 50 years as an all-source analyst on this specific country. The other really good book is Bruce Jones, War Without Windows: A True Account of a Young Army Officer Trapped in an Intelligence Cover-Up in Vietnam (Vanguard, 1997). The best book on the conflict between Sam Adams at CIA and General Westmoreland, in which the latter set an artificial cap on the enemy OOB, is C. Michael Hiam’s Who the Hell Are We Fighting?: The Story of Sam Adams and the Vietnam Intelligence Wars (Steerforth, 2006). Two immortal quotes: Adams, despondent, “Here we are in a guerrilla war and nobody is counting the guerrillas;” and Sherman Kent, asking Adams when being pressured to go along with Westmoreland, “Have we exceeded the bounds of reasonable dishonesty?” We cannot win wars if we lie to ourselves.19 A remarkable number of books now document the web of lies and deceit that led to the elective war on Iraq, which was then compounded by an unforgiveable ineptness in waging peace. Generally the Army leadership was on the money, but having stated their opinion, they chose not to fall on their swords to save the Republic, a serious ethical failing of lasting harm. I2O—which has a very strong foundation in public intelligence useful to both Congressional oversight and public cohesion—is a major force in ensuring political integrity in the decision to go to war, and operational inter-agency integrity in the waging of both war and peace. Jim Bamford, A Pretext for War: 9/11, Iraq, and the Abuse of America's Intelligence Agencies (anchor, 2005) is the best general book. Jim Risen’s State of War: The Secret History of the C.I.A. and the Bush Administration (Free Press, 2006) contains a major scoop, that Charlie Allen, then Deputy Director of Central Intelligence for Collection (DDCI/C) orchestrated close to 30 line-crossers with relatives in the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Program, all of whom returned to say, essentially, “they kept the cookbooks and disposed of the stocks.” Many books, and the author’s own experience,

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We are now ready to go to the next level of warfare, the Seventh Generation, a happy coincidence with what our Native American victims of colonial genocide called “seventh generation thinking.” Seventh generation warfare, shown in context in Figure 1 above, is I2O warfare, finally achieving Sun Tzu’s acme of skill by defeating all enemies, foreign and domestic, and by nurturing all our citizens and allied nations as well as organizations, with intelligence and information operations in all languages, 24/7.

In my view, I2O is the path to informed democracy and moral communal capitalism such that fraud, waste, and abuse are eliminated, and all individuals everywhere are afforded equal opportunities to achieve life, liberty, and happiness (the intelligent interpretation of the latter element of the Declaration of Independence equates it to fulfillment or achievement, not vacuous joy alone).

I2O will take at least ten years to identify and bring to justice those individuals who use secrecy and the power of money as well as blatantly and pervasively illegal means to manipulate governments and loot the global commonwealth—we must focus on white-collar crime at the top and transnational organized crime at the bottom—these are actually the two sucking chest wounds that prevent us from reasonably and collegially addressing all the other high-level threats. During these ten years, but requiring an additional fifteen years to achieve sustainable global stabilization, we can also apply information to heal the planet and eradicate the ten high-level threats itemized below, along with the percentage of relevant information for each that is public, not secret (and hence not ably collected today):

Economic and social threats including 95%o poverty, 99%

take pains to distinguish between the honorable career professionals, and those appointed as Director of Central Intelligence (DCI), some of whom are honorable, some less so. George Tenet, it can be safely said, will go down in history as the most senior intelligence prostitute ever to serve as DCI, perhaps because he was so unqualified.

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o infectious disease and 95%o environmental degradation 90%

Inter-State conflict 75% Internal conflict, including 90%

o civil war, 80%o genocide and 95%o other large-scale atrocities 95%

Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons 75% Terrorism 80% Transnational organized crime 80%

Figure 2: OSINT Relevance to Global Security Threats20

The average utility and relevant of OSINT to these global threats is—on the basis of my informed estimate—82.5%, which comes very close to the generic “80-20” rule. We must conclude that any nation that persists in spending 99.9 percent of its intelligence funds on collecting secrets,21 and less than one half of one percent of its intelligence funds on OSINT, is quite literally, clinically insane (or insanely corrupt) at the highest levels.22 The secret intelligence world ignores eight of these ten high-level threats, and does poorly on the two it acknowledges as vital, proliferation and terrorism.

These threats can also be usefully considered in parallel with the eight Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations:23

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerGoal 2: Achieve universal primary educationGoal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women24

Goal 4: Reduce child mortalityGoal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases25

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability20 Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, A more secure world: Our shared responsibility (New York: United Nations, 2004), The endeavor benefited from the participation of The Honorable LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft, USAF (Ret), former national security advisor to President George Bush. Terrorism is ninth on this list. The report, 264 pages, can be seen at http://www.un.org/secureworld/report2.pdf21 It merits comment that according to the Report of the Commission on the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, as published in December 1999, most of the intelligence money is spent on esoteric collection systems, and almost none at all is spent on actually making sense out of the collected information.22 The author is the original pioneer of modern Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) due to his discovery as a founder of the Marine Corps Intelligence Center in 1988 that 80% or more of what was needed to produce intelligence for expeditionary and littoral policy, mostly in lower tier countries, was not secret, not in English, not online, and not known to anyone in the National Capital Area (NCA). That is still true today. This statement was first made in this way in the author’s chapter, “Open Source Intelligence (OSINT),” as commissioned by Dr. Loch Johnson, editor, Strategic Intelligence (Westport, CN: Praeger, 2007). With permission, it appears in advance as Chapter 9 in the author’s most recent book, THE SMART NATION ACT: Public Intelligence in the Public Interest (OSS International Press, 2006), with a Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons (R-CT-02), widely regarded on the Hill as the most focused and responsible authority on IO and OSINT.23 Cf. http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals. 24 Empowering women has nothing to do with the militant feminists in the USA. The fact is that the best investment in aid is in the education of women because that reduces the drinking and misbehavior of the men, increases communal collaboration, and reinforces secular tolerant government. I learned this important point from Michael O’Hanlon’s A Half-Penny on the Federal Dollar: The Future of Development Aid (Brookings, 1997).

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Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for developmentThe juxtaposition of the threats validated by the United Nations, and the Millennium Goals that focus

on development, is instructive—reality is complex, and reality demands a complex program of healing. The threats and the goals also combine to suggest that I2O is the critical enabler for global collaborative understanding, consensus, shared budgeting, and coalition action.

We are ready now for a massive “paradigm shift”26 in both how we define and how we achieve national security and national prosperity in the context of also achieving global security and prosperity. I2O is the engine for achieving both inter-agency collaboration and coordination at a level of detail heretofore unimaginable and unattainable, while simultaneously achieving what the Swedes call Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information Sharing (M4IS).27

We will not achieve this paradigm shift, nor be able to do I2O, unless the U.S. Army leads the way and offers security to those leading the charge against those secretly manipulating money. The latter are incredibly well-organized, extremely well-informed, and they are willing to assassinate Presidents, over-throw governments, and impoverish or murder (the murder appearing to be a suicide) individuals who dare to challenge them. I choose to focus on this, and implore the U.S. Army to take this seriously.

I2O is needed now, precisely because most informed authorities believe we have less than ten years to begin making draconian changes in our over-all approach to living on a planet with limited resources.28

In practical terms, discussed in more detail in the balance of this work, winning World War III will require the following three steps.

1) Creating an independent Open Source Agency (OSA) so as to be able to nurture both OSINT and also Free/Open Source Software (F/OSS), along the lines pioneered by STRONG ANGEL29 and now immediately available to both Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) critical to the transition to and from hostilities, and to state and local authorities who cannot today readily access national-level

25 We not only have to combat persistent diseases, we have to be catalyzed into action against re-emerging infectious diseases including smallpox and tuberculosis. Among the best works in this area are those of Andrew Price-Smith, The Health of Nations: Infectious Disease, Environmental Change, and Their Effects on National Security and Development (MIT, 2001); and Laurie Garrett, BETRAYAL OF TRUST: The Collapse of Global Public Health (Hyperion, 2001).26 A paradigm shift occurs when there are so many anomalies that cannot be explained by the current theories (in our case, the theories of international relations and political science), that the leading thinkers are thrown into crisis and begin to reconsider discarded theories, including theories previously labeled lunatic or conspiratorial (implicitly lunatic). In my view, the time has come to recognize that the world system of systems is inherent stable as well as self-healing and that artificial instability is introduced by a small group of financiers using corrupt elites to create profit for the few and misery for the many (who are nothing more than serfs in the larger scheme of things). It is the Internet, and the emerging collective intelligence of the public, with its unlimited energy to pick apart the 9/11 catastrophe, the Katrina catastrophe, and the lies that led to war in Iraq, that makes it possible for us to achieve this paradigm shift. Like finding a cure for cancer, I2O will allow us to cleanse our societies of manipulative parasites. Cf. Wikipedia “Paradigm Shifts” and the core reference, Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (University of Chicago, 1962).27 This term was first heard by the author from the audience (not further identified) at the Swedish Conference on Peacekeeping Intelligence (December 2004). Find the trip report via www.oss.net/LIBRARY. 28 Varied books on climate change point out that changes on the Earth that used to take 10,000 years now take 3. The author believes that we have to move to real-time science, at the same time that we must move to real-time multi-cultural situational awareness. I have reviewed many excellent books on the environment, including among them those by J. F. Rischard (HIGH NOON), E. O. Wilson (The Future of Life), and Herman Daly (Ecological Economics). Included among my Amazon reviews are books on water, the oceans, chlorine as Pandora’s Poison, and of course energy and Peak Oil.

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intelligence nor share bottom-up collection with national agencies and among themselves, both essential to achieving our objectives in relation to Homeland Security.30

2) Charge that new organization, the OSA, with taking Serious Games/Games for Change, to a new level, as vehicles for receiving and making sense of real-world and near-real-time OSINT in all languages and mediums, in order to allow the inter-agency and coalition gaming of alternative scenarios and alternative multinational and inter-agency investment strategies for stabilization and reconstruction. World3, which has evolved from the original “Limits to Growth” model sponsored by the Club of Rome, and SecondLife, sponsored by Mitch Kapor (founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation) and others, could serve as a foundation for creating a SimGlobe on steroids, fully integrating the ten threats, twelve policies, and eight challengers, and also integrating our new-found realization that money and individual personal relationships as well as belief systems have to be and can be tracked to avoid surprise and make sense of all we can know about our irreplaceable Earth.31 I will be blunt here: single so-called legitimate individuals are secretly creating situations that impoverish millions, reduce national securities, make national prosperity impossible to achieve, and they are getting away with it. We are looking in the wrong direction. We are responsible for all enemies, domestic and foreign, and I2O will help us sort this out.

3) Apply our new-found ability to do I2O on the national budget,32 and then on all budgets. We must “follow the money” at all levels, in near-real-time, and use this to quickly identify fraud, waste, abuse, corruption, and mis-direction. With our automated machine-speed model and distributed networks of experts, both paid and volunteer, we will over time be able to eliminate the secret deals and directions that are destroying the planet, we will be able to identify disconnects between policy, the budget 33, reality, and our desired outcomes of sustainable peace and prosperity both nationally and globally.

I2O, rather than the force of arms; I2O, rather than diplomatic demands, I2O, rather than economic extortion, I2O rather than cultural imperialism; I2O rather than demographic incursion, is the ultimate arbiter of non-violent, multi-cultural, sensible and sustainable solutions to mankind’s challenges.

Grand Strategy & The Application of I2O

The “end game” is not the military defeat of all possible opponents—only a very badly-educated and poorly-read person would believe for even an instant that violence can subdue over seven billion people, five billion of whom are in dire straits of poverty, but being mobilized to the possibilities by their own incidental access to globalized information resources.

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Figure 3: Grand Strategy & The Application of I2O

Information converted into intelligence, and information used to reduce risks and costs while increasing profits and shared wealth, is the ultimate national resource and the single factor that might permit sustained peace and a full distribution of infinite wealth in the context of sustainable evolution.

The previous figure, Figure 3, illustrates a frame of reference, a mind-set, within which all information in all languages, at all times, can help us restore and extend informed democracy, moral capitalism, and reasoned international relations at both the state and the sub-state levels.

We will still need some secrecy, some force, but in this larger context of I2O, we can apply the bulk of our resources to waging peace and nurturing distributed prosperity.

I2O Socio-Economics & Ideo-Demographics

Significantly, the socio-economics and the ideo-demographics of I2O are dramatically different from the Cold War era—citizens with clearances are devalued, while citizen volunteers and international observers and experts render contributions here-to-fore impossible to access or integrate. Most of these contributions are free of cost, while creating socio-economic wealth vastly more valuable than the for-fee services of traditional vendors. Using the Internet, and advanced security features such as are provided by the Application Oriented Network (AON) from CISCO, organizations will be able to cross-fertilize both data holdings at multiple levels of secure sharing, and individual expertise including foreign language and foreign area skills. The following figure illustrates both the new socio-economics and the new ideo-demographics of the new discipline of I2O, a discipline that is inherently democratic and moral.

FUNCTION SOCIOLOGY ECONOMICS IDEOLOGY DEMOGRAPHYFind Full sharing Free Declared/On File GlobalGet Full sharing Free Declared/On File GlobalBuy Partial sharing Low-Cost Declared/On File GlobalTask Restricted sharing Modest Cost Declared/On File Official/National

Figure 4: I2O Socio-Economics & Ideo-Demographics

This discipline is revolutionary. It harks back to Neil Stephenson’s original vision in Snowcrash, where the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) combined with the Library of Congress (LoC) and any

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individual could contribute any datum to a global system “on consignment,” to be paid as others found that datum useful.

In fact, the fundamental elements of this new world already exist, albeit with warts and trolls. Wikipedia, Google.com and Google.org, the Internet Archives, the many professional and personal Wikis, and varied commercial technologies, such as Telelanguage.com which is open source (software) and CISCO AON (which is not), are all making it possible to create the World Brain envisioned by H. G. Wells, but with a modern twist—the Internet and micro-cash as the medium of both for free and for-fee exchange.

Within this environment, virtually every traditional publisher, every traditional aggregator of information, and every proprietary information corporation (e.g. Jane’s Information Group) will be put out of business.

That is a good thing. The accuracy, timeliness, and utility of all information provided within this new discipline will be superior to what the industrial era organizations were able to conceptualize and deliver.

Human Belief Systems34

Communications and computing systems are a means of creating, censoring, sharing, or destroying knowledge about reality, and then establishing agendas, goals, and outcomes favorable to our public.

This matters in relation to war and peace. As Alvin & Heidi Toffler have documented over time, information can be substituted for violence, capital, and labor while producing wealth. I2O is the emergent operationalization of what the author has, since the 1990’s, called “information peacekeeping.”35

The first step in preventing war and distributing prosperity is to understand that the 21 st Century’s Order of Battle (OOB) is comprised of the individual mind-set, the individual human belief system, and the relatively autonomous Collective Intelligence or group belief systems that characterize neighborhoods, tribes, and ethnic groups. The most important group, the group previously impervious to scrutiny because of its deep intimate secrecy and limited numbers, is the network of secret societies clustered around 300-500 key financial figures (both overt and criminal) who may be the behind-the-scenes instigators of wars for harvesting profits.36

Computers expand—or compromise—the human belief systems they represent or support. Depending on the priorities extant in their design, computers can “forget” decades to centuries of sensor information, of historical knowledge, or cultural nuance. Or, instead, computers can provide their human clients with global vision, real-time situational awareness, acute sensitivity to body language, and perfect integration of all relevant knowledge bearing on a situation or decision.

Dr. Robert Garigue tells us that “Computers are epistemological exploration machines. They are means and ways to investigate the life cycle of knowledge. Right now, these ways and means are still simple but eventually, computational systems will construct valid theories and discover new knowledge all by themselves.” His vision includes graphical, temporal, spatial, and acoustic aspects.

Before moving on the remainder of this section, it is helpful to understand just how deficient our current computing and communications environment actually is.

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Figure 5: Threats to the 20% We Know From the Information Technology Itself 37

This is very important because all too many commanders and their staffs have an almost mystical belief in “the system” as all-knowing if one only knows how to find the needle-in-the-haystack, when in fact not only do we not know 80% of what we need to know, but the 20% that we do know is totally hosed by human error and other problems.

Over ten years ago Dr. Garigue stated that the weapons of Information Warfare (IW) would be a composite of Physical, Syntactical, or Semantic weapons of force.

Physical weapons destroy physical components and deny service Syntactical weapons corrupt the operating logic with delays, random errors, and unauthorized

access. Semantic weapons focus on destroying the trust inherent in a belief system.

We have wasted decades of time focused on stealing secrets and protecting information that more often than not was not secret. The negative impact on our national intelligence of an excessive faith in stolen secrets, at the expense of all we could have known from open sources of information; and our excessive concern about “absolute” protection of “system-high” data links and data bases, has cost us time. Time, as Colin Gray tells us, is the one strategic factor that can not be replaced nor purchased.38

Information Warfare (IW), popularized by Winn Schwartau39 and a generation of hackers,40 has been about cyber-theft and cyber-defense. It focused on systems and connections, not on the cognitive substance embodied in those systems and the human networks relying on the systems.

Information Operations (IO) is in its infancy. Strategic Communication (SC) is still in gestation, largely unborn and certainly incoherent. Similarly, OSINT is retarded, in stasis since the end of World War II when organizations like the Foreign Broadcast Information System (FBIS) and the original Office of Strategic Services (OSS) produced sensationally useful analysis based largely on open sources & methods. As long as the secret world refers to OSINT as “Open Sores,” it will not prosper in that world.41

IO also suffers from moral confusion and political influence. Too often our good men and women in uniform are asked to lie, to create propaganda, to spin the truth with public relations stories that are at least one step removed from reality. This is counter-productive and unacceptable. The I2O operator, to be fully successful, must understand that morality and truth are the fundamental values of I2O.

Abe Lincoln (or P.T. Barnum) said it best:42

You may fool all the people some of the time; you can even fool some of the people all the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all the time.

There is one characteristic of emerging value-driven networks for sharing information: transparency. This is in direct conflict with the war-secrecy paradigm that is so fundamental to the American way of

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war that we may need to raise an entire new generation of solders and Marines (the ones most likely to have boots on the ground). The U.S. Army’s First Earth Battalion! Time to bring it back up.43

Perhaps the most extraordinary on-going transformation, a transformation that will enable I2O to become a pervasive means of intelligent governance, intelligent diplomatic engagement, and intelligent transparent, sustainable commercial and economic as well as socio-cultural exchanges, is that the raw information is becoming “smart.” Increasingly we are able to do machine-speed digestion of information that has the traditional time and space attributes (the Date Time Group or DTG), and also geospatial attributes. As data is tagged with XML and other protocols, new forms of communication and understanding, as well as new forms of censorship and deception, will become possible. Machines will not replace people. Instead, they will allow the superior human brain to make the most of its skills by finding, sorting, weighting, clustering, and otherwise evaluating massive quantities of data, creating a vibrant multi-media universe within which the human brain can fly.

Dr. Garigue teaches us that the most important transformation of information occurs when “new XML protocols cause the context of data and information to be integrated directly into the content. He lists a few implications:

Context is embedded in content Machine reasoning replaced rote calculation Taxonomies and ontologies combine with declarative logic and the autonomous learning of

concepts Belief systems can be visualized and compared in time and spaceAs machine speed digestion and comparison of all information in all languages all the time becomes

the norm for those that choose to invest appropriately, the meaning of national intelligence will change. We will of course have to be acutely conscious of the underlying models and assumptions. The

garbage that passes for software and documentation today in the proprietary world is no longer tolerable. We must migrate almost exclusively to the open source world precisely to avoid hidden bugs and plugs.

Today, we operate in a very large but incoherent information environment that separates the secret intelligence stovepipes from the larger policy, operations, acquisition, logistics, and economic constituencies. In this environment, secret intelligence is less than 10% of the relevant information that the commander must consider, and even then, can often be ignored when provided, and not missed when it fails to satisfy. The second and more serious separation comes from the virtual barriers between the military and the civilian federal agencies, and between the government and what the author has called the “seven tribes” of alternative intelligence (military, law enforcement, business, academia, NGOs, organized media, and citizen capabilities including labor unions, religions, and collective virtual communities of interest. These are the two sucking chest wounds in IO that I2O can resolve.

Consider this statement attributed to General Tony Zinni, USMC, former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Central Command (CINCENT): 44

"80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting.  And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%.  At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge."

The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) is in denial of these two basic realities and incapable today, of executing global coverage that OSS.Net, Inc. can achieve with no prior notice and no additional infrastructure, simply by virtue of having spent 18 years getting to “know who knows.”45

There is one other belief system that I wish to mention. It is a belief system that is vastly more threatening to our national security and national prosperity than any combination of external threats. I

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refer to immoral predatory capitalism that subverts participatory democracy at home, and corrupts elites around the world, in this way gaining permission to loot the commonwealths of indigenous peoples all over the world. This belief system, generally accepted by most Western working and middle class individuals, allows corporations to harvest the Earth and sell it for profit without regard to the actual time required to replenish the raw materials, without regard to the waste and pollution associated with the creation of the products, and without regard to the unemployment and other social costs of the product. Cheap goods from China are “financed” by the public’s ignorant and unwitting acceptance of “cheap” oil that allows $3 dollar plastic trinkets to be shipped 10,000 miles while consuming vast quantities of fuel that took 10,000 years to create.46

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Here we illustrate the larger context within which the Commander must operate, in two side-by-side depictions of the IO environment that would benefit considerably from the concepts put forth herewith.

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Figure 6: Competing for Attention & Resources47

In this context, sources and methods become part of the provenance of the information, and like a painting by an old master, must be presented and validated. Obscuring sources and methods is no longer an acceptable way of doing business. The currency of secret intelligence has been severely devalued. Mr. Ted Shackley, one of the top spymasters within the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), a man who pioneered the integration of US aviation support with indigenous guerilla fighting in Laos, is on record as stating that the world has changed to such an extent (i.e. commercial access to Russia and China and other previously denied areas) that fully 80% of any secret wish list from 1991 can today be satisfied with overt means, including overt human legal travelers.48 At the same time, as U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) has demanded, it is no longer good enough to throw finished intelligence over the transom—either deliver all the raw data, or make sense of everything so the classified is in context.49 No one in the IC will admit this is so.

Trust, and the sharing of predominantly overt information, will characterize the discipline of I2O. It is in this context that I recognized the importance of peacekeeping intelligence as articulated by others,50

and developed my own views on information peacekeeping (IP). General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret) is one of the few who appear to understand that the Combatant Commander’s greatest asset in wartime is going to be the networks of deep relationships the COCOM and his officers have developed over time.51

This is one reason why the author personally believes that we need to move to the Regimental system with regiments being more or less permanently assigned to specific foreign areas, and their officers and non-commissioned officers thus having 10-20 years of deep knowledge including cultural and linguistic knowledge. The tinker toy approach to training, equipping, organizing, and deploying forces is no longer suitable to the 100-year six-front war52 environment replete with hundreds of “uncomfortable little wars.”53

47 The not-so-happy face side of this figure was originally developed by Dr. Greg Treverton, then teaching at Harvard, and is used by the author with permission and some modification. It is also a standard at the CIA University—they really do understand they are in a minority, they simply do not understand that they have to get a grip on the totality of the information being fire-hosed at the Commander if their bit is to be useful. The DoD 3000 slide was developed by the author with some very helpful inputs from the U.S. Special Operations Command.48 Ted Shackley, SPYMASTER: My Life in the CIA (Potomac, 2006), page 282.49 The author pitched the concept of a National Processing Agency to General Hayden and was given an opportunity to brief all the flags and Colonels in the SIGINT Group on 19 August 2004, but to no avail. The US Government as a whole, the US Intelligence Community, the Department of Defense, and the individual Combatant Commanders still do not have a single all-source processing network. The Joint Intelligence Command (or Center) concept is a good one, but is severely flawed by the focus on “butts in seats” instead of global access to distributed data, as well as reachback to world-class sense-making, at all levels from all devices.50 Inspired by a Dutch conference on peacekeeping intelligence, the author published and was a contributing book to the first serious book on this subject, PEACEKEEPING INTELLIGENCE: Emerging Concepts for the Future, with

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There is one vital final point in relation to the above figure: each of the groups competing for attention from the commander is an I2O audience, not just an input. The I2O campaign must follow, understand, and communicate with US policymakers, foreign policymakers, US and foreign general publics, and of course the “opposition” in all its forms from legal opposition to foreign fighters.

IP creates wealth—IW destroys and denies knowledge. IP plus IW equal IO. I2O goes a step further, subordinating secret intelligence to the larger discipline of I2O, in order to aggressively address, in the current, near- and far-term futures, the ten high-level global threats outlined in Figure 2 on page 3.

It is a fact that for the best of reasons (the assumption that the consumer of secret intelligence is responsible for collecting and exploiting open sources of information), the U.S. Government is largely severely deficient54 in developing I2O solutions for these ten challenges, and generally lacking the

co-editors Ben de Jong and Wies Platje (OSS International Press, 2003). At the time, no one else was willing to do this. The book subsequently became the basic reference for the United Nations Force Commanders, under the leadership of MajGen Patrick Cammaert, Royal Netherlands Marines, a contributor also featured on the cover.51 His views are provided in depth in Battle Ready (Putnam, 2004).52 The author, protesting the unwise decision to invade Iraq, posted a slide with this title at www.oss.net in the period following 9/11 (see note 59 for a direct URL) and when it became obvious the Administration was determined to invade. A good overview of the neo-conservative campaign was subsequently provided by Thomas MacInerney and Paul Valley, Endgame: The Blueprint for Victory in the War on Terror (Regnery, 2004) in which they proposed nothing less than a clean sweep through-out the Middle East without regard to the consequences.53 Cf. Max Manwaring, John Fishel, and Edwin Corr, Uncomfortable Wars Revisited (University of Oklahoma, 2006). The author, in positing the need for “four forces after next” in the mid-1990’s, anticipated the learning curve and the need to keep distinct forces for big war, small war, peace war, and homeland security. Several years late, the Army War College held a superb Strategy Conference, and the results were summarized, inclusive of the design for four forces, in “The Asymmetric Threat: Listening to the Debate.” Joint Forces Quarterly, no. 20, Autumn/Winter 1998/1999, pp. 78-84.29 STRONG ANGEL, going into its fourth year, is funded by the Defense Advanced Projects Agency (DARPA) and addresses the need for a free/open source software suite of tools that can be immediately and infinitely distributed to NGOs and others assisting in the transition to and from war (as called for by the Defense Science Board report of the same name, published in December 2004). It is easily found via Google.30 Homeland Security presents two intractable problems that an Open Source Agency can address. The first is that the secret intelligence community is foolishly trying to impose its proprietary software and bunker mentality on those who need to receive “sensitive” intelligence, and they cannot afford the money, or the time, required to deal with single-point proprietary and secret nodes. The second is that there is no means today to process the bottom-up dots that include observations of cops on the beat as well as citizens. The Smart Nation Act being sponsored by Congressman Simmons provides for both free/open source software as the foundation for Community Intelligence Centers, and for 119 and 114 numbers that can be used to alert all cell phones in a specific vicinity, or to report suspicious activity to a central processing point for collation and evaluation.31 These terms are all easily found via Google. To conserve space, individual notes are not provided.32 The National Budget Simulation, available online, is one manifestation. It allows individuals to change allocations within a fixed budget. It does not properly reflect the role of central banks in issues electronic loans with no collateral behind them other than the property the borrower themselves bring to the table—they essentially have a license to issue money, charge interest, and take possession of the property if the interest is not paid—all the time knowing that over the life of a typical loan, they will collect at least 50% interest, and sometimes 100% interest. Thomas Jefferson opposed the concept of a bank not part of the government, precisely for this reason—it leads to financial slavery while giving the private bankers every advantage. Cf. Jim Marrs, Rule by Secrecy (Perrenial, 2000)., pp. 66-68. It merits comment that I did not begin to absorb books previously labeled as conspiratorial until the combination of 9/11, Katrina, Iraq, and two “emergency” laws bordering on fascist were passed:

a) In a stealth maneuver, President Bush signed into law a  > provision which, according to Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont),  will actually encourage the President to declare federal martial  law (1). It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a set of laws that limits the President's ability to deploy troops within

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necessary experience or funding for achieving situational awareness that can be used to implement what General Al Gray, then Commandant of the Marine Corps, called “peaceful preventive measures.”

Consequently, we can suggest that Information Peacekeeping is a revolution within the meta-strategy of Information Operations. IP creates new capabilities that substitute minds for munitions, ideas for tanks, and informed dialog for lies, propaganda, or public affairs “spin” which more often than not is ignored if not ridiculed by local observers including top-level indigenous officials.55

Belief systems are vastly more complicated than the more pedestrian and traditional OOB. They are not something that can be understood overnight, nor by rapidly rotating mixes of active duty, reservist, civilians, and contractors. The way we do belief systems today can be compared to going into battle by hijacking a pick-up truck, loading it with rocks, and driving down the nearest road throwing rocks in

the United States. The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C.331 -335) has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C.1385),  helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in  domestic law enforcement. b) Public Law 109-364, or the "John Warner Defense Authorization Act  of 2007" (H.R.5122) (2), which was signed by the commander in chief  on October 17th, 2006, in a private Oval Office ceremony, allows  the President to declare a "public emergency" and station troops  anywhere in America and also take control of state-based National Guard  units without the consent of the governor or local authorities, in  order to "suppress public disorder."

At this point I experienced my own paradigm shift, and realized that all the experts were arguing about effects instead of causes, while failing to see the imminent implosion of the Republic.33 “It’s not policy until it’s in the budget.” Mr. Don Gessaman, former Deputy Assistant Director for National Security of the Office of Management and the Budget (OMB) says this frequently when teaching prospective Senior Executive Service (SES) personnel at the Eastern and Western Management Development Centers of the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).34 This section draws on Dr. Robert Garigue’s “Technical Preface” in Robert David Steele, INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time (Oakton, VA: OSS International Press, 2006).35 To conserve space, the many citations are not provided here. Googling for the term in quotes will be fruitful.36 When the author published “E3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution and Intelligence: An Alternative Paradigm for National Intelligence in the Fall 1992 issue of Whole Earth Review, a reliable source said that the 7th Floor judgment at the Central Intelligence Agency was “This confirms Steele’s place on the lunatic fringe.” Today, of course, the author’s foresight is proven, and we have wasted 18 years during which we could have implemented I2O, detected the evil belief system of Wahhabism, better foretold the ten threats and their projected costs, and perhaps begun to analyze inconsistencies between reality and policy that produce profit for the few and death or misery for the many. With this paper, the author expects to set off another firestorm of slander and innuendo, and to again earn the derisive label of “lunatic” for again being 15 years ahead of the curve. The beast is slow to learn, absent strong-willed leaders willing to listen to their iconoclasts. Mr. Jock Gill, Mr. Tom Atlee, and Ms. Kimberly Blozie all point out that “value-networks” are the new new thing, and it may well be that the next generation “force” will actually be a deliberately distributed body of tens of thousands of “value nodes” or “circuit riders” such as the Special Operations Forces field, but focused exclusively on being in touch with belief systems and points of view.37 This slide is originally from Mich E. Kabay, The NCSA Guide to Enterprise Security: Protecting Information Assets, McGraw-Hill (New York, 1996). ISBN 0-07-033147-2. Chapter 1, Figure 1, page 11, but the figure in the book is superseded by this version, provided by Dr. Kabay in personal communications to Robert Steele, OSS CEO, 12 March 1998. At the same time, there is the matter of deliberate obfuscation and denial of history. Cf. John Perry’s LOST HISTORY: Contras, Cocaine, the Press, and ‘Project Truth’ (Media Consortium, 1999), and Larry Beinhart, FOG FACTS: Searching for Truth in the Land of Spin (Nation, 2005). There are many other books on the disappearance of history and the manufacturing of false realities, for instance the classic by Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman, MANUFACTURING CONSENT: The Political Economy of the Mass Media (Pantheon, 2002). In summary, we don’t know 80% of what we need to know, and we spill 80% of what we do know over time.38 Colin Gray, Modern Strategy (Oxford, 1999).

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every direction without regard to what they hit or our vulnerability to being hit back in mediums and at levels of nuance we simply do not comprehend institutionally.56

We have also failed because the mandarins of the secret world refused to invest in Tasking, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination (TPED).57 Despite the clear identification of the eighteen functionalities needed for an all-source analysts desk station, not only did we allow twenty or more different secret compartments to pursue that Holy Grail independent of one another,58 but we still don’t have an affordable system today that can be shared with both Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO), and with the constituencies of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the municipalities, counties, tribes, states, and commonwealths of the United States of America (USA).

39 Winn Schwartau and I co-founded the Information Warfare Conference (InfoWarCon), and I consider him one of the originals. His first book was so scary it was published as fiction: TERMINAL COMPROMISE (Inter-Pact Press, 1991). His next, Information Warfare Chaos on the Electronic Superhighway (Thunder’s Mouth Press, 1994) was the standard in the field for several years, and to his being invited to testify to Congress about an electronic Pearl Harbor. His conference (I withdrew to focus on OSINT) inspired many young officers around the world and brought together a diverse group of individuals willing to cross boundaries for the sake of learning.40 The author was the original keynote speaker at Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE) in 1994, and is an elected member of the Silicon Valley Hackers Conference as well as an occasional participant in Hack-tic, the European hackers event. The author was the first person, in 1993, to bring hackers to the stage in Washington, D.C., with the pleasant result that the National Security Agency (NSA) sent two bus-loads of specialists down to observe them and interact “oh so cautiously.” The author’s view is that hackers are like astronauts, pushing the edge of the envelope, and an under-appreciated and under-utilized national resource. Hackers began at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and the best ones, like Richard Stahlman, dropped out because mainstream schools, however good, were both too slow and mis-directed.41 The author spent four years, from 1988-1992, with the full support of the Marine Corps, where he was the second ranking civilian in Marine Corps intelligence, trying to talk sense to the U.S. Intelligence Community and particularly the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS). They simply refused to listen. They did not get it then and they do not get it now. For many documents on the early battles, see http://www.oss.net/HISTORY. 42 Attributed to ABRAHAM LINCOLN.—Alexander K. McClure, “Abe” Lincoln’s Yarns and Stories, p. 184 (1904), but also attributed to P.T. Barnum the great showman. Cf. http://www.bartleby.com/73/609.html. 43 Mr. Jock Gill points out that transparency is fundamental to honest and open feedback across all boundaries. I have myself long-used a slide that shows the end of top-down unilateral secret and short-term decision-making, in favor of bottom-up, multi-cultural, CONSENSUAL decision-making based on open sources and focused on the long term.44 General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Central Command (CINCCENT), as recounted to the author on 4 April 2006 by a very prominent individual close to varied National Security Council and defense personalities, who desires to remain anonymous.45 This term is original to Dr. Stefan Dedijer, then of Lund University in Sweden, and widely recognized as the father of modern business intelligence. He spoke about this at the first Open Source Solutions conference in December 1992.46 A representative book is Paul Hawken, The Ecology of Commerce: A Declaration of Sustainability (Collins, 1993). Others includes those by Herman Daly, conceptualizer of “Ecological Economics.”54 This is the term used by the Aspin-Brown Commission in their final report, after the author, with six telephone calls, produced a full range of experts, journalists, Russian military maps, commercial imagery, tribal orders of battle, and political-military studies, on Burundi, a text requested by General Lew Allen, USAF (Ret), following the author’s testimony to the Commission on the subject of OSINT. The CIA had a cute little color map of the continent, and a regional economic study with flawed premises. The other elements of the IC had nothing. This is of course why the Marine Corps made such a big deal of our deficiencies in Third World intelligence, including intelligence about revolution and terrorism, from 1988-1992, but no one in the IC wanted to listen then, just as no one in DoD is likely to listen now as I put forward this concept for I20. See General Al Gray, “Global Intelligence

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The missing piece of the solution is the Open Source Agency (OSA). Despite a very strong start on the part of the Office of the Undersecretary for Intelligence (USDI), this program has been moribund since the responsible executive action officer went back to the Marine Corps. The ideal solution, in my view, is for DoD to fund this new agency as a sister-agency to the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG), with the same arms’ length independence as the BBG, and a uniformed military brigadier general as the Principal Deputy and Chief Financial Officer, responsible for overseeing DoD’s investment.

As Dr. Garigue summarized in his Technical Preface to my book on IO, “If Information Warfare is about destroying the infrastructure of knowledge and false belief systems then the prime objective of Information Peacekeeping is to help us understand the processes that create valid knowledge and more truthful and trustworthy belief systems. As such, it is a much more critical and difficult process. All these processes need to be coordinated not just within the inter-agency boundaries of a single Nation, but across all Nations. Therefore, the new and much larger role of Information Operations is to orchestrate the use of both the processes of destruction through Information Warfare and also the processes of the creation of new potentials and new understandings through Information Peacekeeping.”

Dr. Garigue concludes: “In the coming age of semantic organizations, where worldwide access will be considered a universal right, militaries and governments will have to operate at new levels of situational awareness to ensure a safer, productive, and sustainable quality of life for all communities.”

My own understanding is that human biases and beliefs create computers with biases and beliefs, and the two together must be employed to understand other humans with biases and beliefs. It is my view that the team that optimizes the truth and minimizes the lies will acquire and retain the moral high ground.

I2O can deliver a Strategic Imagination capability with an integrative and holistic analytical process that is effective at the strategic, operational, tactical, and technical levels, while rendering substantially improved situational awareness and decision-support to policy, acquisition, operations, and logistics.

It is my view, and I believe it is also the view of Congressman/Colonel Simmons59 that is it completely inappropriate for intelligence personnel to be active in the collection of and sharing of open source information in an indigenous environment. Only the Civil Affairs professional—we need thousands more of them, most of them on active duty in the same region for 5-10 years at a time—have the “clean hands” with which to interface with NGOs and the varied other “tribes” of intelligence. OSINT needs to be an “outside the wire” activity, in part because it cannot afford to suffer the ministrations of the classified security and legal offices as well as the “cover our ass” censoring of the secret mandarins, who are—justifiably—terrified that OSINT is going to show them to be not only Naked Emperors, but grotesquely expensive ones whose “value added” for the commander and their staff is highly questionable. Let me repeat that. Highly questionable. Placing OSINT under the J-2 is a death warrant. We need a proverbial “Chinese Wall” and Civil Affairs is the right group—with the right mind-set—to assume this responsibility. Inside the wall, not only should OSINT be demanded and leveraged

Challenges in the 1990’s,” in American Intelligence Journal, Winter 1989-1990. This and other key documents can be found online by using www.oss.net/BASIC. 55 In Latin America, U.S. officials, both civilian and military, are called “ tontos utiles,” useful idiots. This is a world-wide problem because of our naiveté, our lack of historical and cultural knowledge, our impatience, and our often grotesque mis-understanding and ignorance about social networks, local mores, and more.56 GRANDVIEW, an excellent initiative within the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) tried valiantly to map the human terrain, but they failed because neither the defense attaches nor the diplomats nor the clandestine and secret technical services were willing to collect open sources of information in all languages. The author learned to appreciate this program—and is severe lack of access to raw information—as a founding member of the Advanced Information Processing and Analysis Steering Group (AIPASG), an IC-level sub-committee.57 Supra note 19.58 Personal knowledge, from service on the AIPASG.

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by every staff function and every subordinate command down to the squad and A Team level, but the J-2 should have pride of place in validating the OSINT; the PAO should have co-equal status with Strategic Effects in discussing how to refine collection requirements for open source information, and the J-3 should be the final judge—not the J-2—on the operational timeliness, cost effectiveness, and utility of the OSINT in relation to classified sources and products.

The Smart Nation Act60

The only U.S. Government organization willing to take “modern” OSINT seriously has been the U.S. Army, first under General Peter Schoomaker at Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Special Operations Command (CINCSOC), then by General William Kernan, Supreme Allied Commander Atlantic (SACLANT).61 We have lost time. In the years since the Marine Corps Intelligence Center (MCIC) determined that 80% or more of its expeditionary and littoral intelligence requirements were not secret, not in English, not online, and not known to anyone in the National Capital Area (NCA), over 40 countries have developed some form of OSINT Center or Cell, most of them for military use but many, such as in the Metropolitan Police (Scotland Yard) of the United Kingdom, with very valuable law enforcement or homeland security applications—OSINT played a role in the neutralization of many terrorists in England.

It is a fact that the Commandant of the Marine Corps (CMC) went on record in 1989 with respect to both the urgent need to focus on terrorism and revolutionary instability, and the urgent need to fund OSINT capabilities relevant to that urgent need for global monitoring and understanding. No one in the secret intelligence world wanted to listen, calling OSINT “Open Sores.”

In 1992 the Marine Corps tried to re-direct the National Intelligence Topic (NIT) from being totally focused (all ten) on Cold War targets, toward focusing on “higher probability lower intensity threats.” However, as CMC said on more than one occasion, “there is nothing low intensity about a bullet.”

What we have learned since 9/11 is that we need new means of both understanding and of stabilizing the world. As Congressman Rob Simmons (R-CT-02) has stated,

Belief systems in all languages, and an understanding of those belief systems in the context of their own history in their own language, their own sermons today in their own language, are the absolutely essential foundation for national security and national competitiveness in the age of globalization.

Unfortunately, as a government, we lack a larger strategic framework within which to integrate reality, inter-agency deliberation, long-term strategic objective identification, and inter-agency budget and behavior modification. I2O seeks to resolve that deficiency.

Together, Congressman Simmons and I have developed a concept for both belief system mapping, and reality-based budgeting. One focuses on the individual mind-set, the other focuses on the actual expenditures by competitor governments, expenditures that reveal their actual policy rather than their claimed policy.

As a Congressman with responsibilities on both the House Armed Services Committee and as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment of the House Homeland Security Committee, retired Colonel Simmons (Military Intelligence) has identified four areas where we can support national security and prosperity though a new integrative discipline of I2O:

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OSINT needs a major multi-billion dollar push, inclusive of a DoD Field Activity based in Tampa with a node at each of the other Combatant Commanders (COCOM)

Information sharing rather than secrecy is the mind-set that must be fostered within our own ranks and those of the coalition

Since 80% of what we need to know is controlled or accessible only to non-governmental organizations or private sector parties, most of whom have no wish to be associated with covert intelligence organizations, the Nation needs to create a national Open Source Agency to support I2O in support of the IC, of all Departments, and of Congress and the public—public intelligence in the public interest. This agency cannot be subordinate to the DNI or it will die instantly.62

Proprietary software is unaffordable and will not scale—free/open source software is essential if we are to integrate state and local authorities as well as NGOs, into a new global grid.

This merits emphasis. In my view, and the view of those I consult:

Open source software breaks down the cost, security, legal, and proprietary stovepipe barriers to sharing. It creates an information commons within which information can be routed based on its content, translated based on its relevance and urgency, and shared on a by name or by unit basis; these are all needed I2O capabilities that are denied to us today because of an industrial-era legacy system that refuses to modernize from the outside-in.

I have spent 18 years, after a rich life overseas, as a Marine, as a spy, as a manager of a Service-level intelligence center, thinking about this. The IC is still in denial and likely to remain there.

I2O in War & Peace (Six Fronts, 100 Years)

In this concluding section, I will summarize some key concepts such as I have developed in much greater detail across four books, with a fifth edited book on Peacekeeping Intelligence.63

Strategic Generalizations about Reality

Ideological fantasy as well as ideologically-motivated mendacity can be measured and exposed, if one first has a grip on reality. Where America has gone wrong is to have abdicated all power to the Executive and to a one-party winner-take-all Congress that has in turn chosen to serve the President rather than We the People inclusive of our Armed Forces, where every serving individual has a right to expect their leaders to be honest about the reasons and requirements for war. This unconstitutional departure from the Founding Fathers’ design where the Senate and House serve to balance the power of the Executive,64 is dramatically and secretly made much worse by the dependence of the political parties on Wall Street guidance and approval and financing. Corporations representing banking interests now own the U.S. Government. As CNN has documented recently, the U.S. Government is “broken.” Only I2O, with protection, understanding, and enthusiastic adoption from the U.S. Army, can get us back on track as a Republic under the rule of law and serving We the People.

At it’s most fundamental, I2O is about getting a grip on reality so that our natural American values—America the Good—can do the right thing and prevent mendacious and immoral politicians from mis-representing us and ordering policies and actions that are not in our best interests. Strategic

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generalizations, well-rooted in deep historical and cultural study across all languages, are the essential foundation for devising a coherent strategy suitable for a 100-year war on six fronts.65

10 Threats, 12 Policies, 8 Challengers

The ten high-level global threats bearing on the future of mankind were itemized in Figure 2 on page 3. On my own initiative, I have studied the various “mandate for change” policy volumes going back over the last two decades, and concluded that no national security strategy is complete unless it clearly addresses, in an integrated fashion, at least twelve distinct policies in constant inter-play, as listed along the upper horizontal axis of Figure 5 on the next page.

In this context, terrorism (one box with three dimensions) is visibly a minor part of the over-all strategic challenge, especially when contrasted with the cost of white-collar and organized crime, the future cost of not attending to debt, education, energy, family, and water, among others, and of course the importance of remaining friendly with our challengers while helping them avoid our mistakes—China, for example, should be focused on distributed mid-sized cities with superb public transportation, and bullet trains between cities capable of carrying all many of individualized transport—anything but automobiles!.

The purpose of this three-dimensional illustration is to drive home the point that it is not possible to achieve national security or sustainable national prosperity with either polarizing politics, or single-issue governance. “It’s all connected.”

Intelligence helps us understand and discuss reality across all thirty of these nodes, in relation with one another.

Information Operations then becomes the implementing frame of reference by which we orchestrate inter-agency operations, coalition operations, and collaboration with non-governmental organizations.

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Figure 7: Unified Threat, Policy, and Challenger I2O Matrix

This Nation has no grand strategy, and it can safely be said that we have gone clinically insane because of that deficiency.

At the same time, and this creates a rubric’s cube, a three-dimensional strategic environment for IO/I2O, we must use OSINT to do Global Coverage and get away from the secret world’s obsession with a few Hard Targets. However, we must also recognize that despite a need for universal or global coverage, there are Eight Challengers, each at least as powerful as we in the fundamentals of population and land mass, and each of whom we must explicitly address: these are shown along the right-hand vertical axis above.

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Any IO/I2O program that does not include a comprehensive historical as well as broad current program to understand and then to communicate with all ethnic or religious groups within these eight challenger groups, is destined for expensive failure.

Predicting and Managing Instability (Revolution Matrix)66

Our national and military intelligence communities have lost their way, focusing on secret intelligence about things, instead of comprehensive understanding of ideas, individuals, neighborhoods, and all aspects of reality such as can promote stability or inspire instability.

Revolution is a matter of scope, depth, speed, and duration. It is not something that happens in one arena or another, at least when we are speaking about national revolutions. It is not possible to understand and evaluate belief systems in relation to stability or instability, without having at least a general understanding of revolution—what it is, how does it happen, who does it, and why.

There are five dimensions within which revolutions occur. Serious revolutions must cover at least three of these dimensions and be pervasive and broad in reach.

Political-Legal (and Military). Right and duties—who governs, how, and why. Socio-Economic. Allocation of goods and services, order, protection, conservation. Ideo-Cultural. Spiritual means of orchestrating population, achieving sense of community. Techno-Demographic. Technological sophistication, demographic balance, all sectors. Natural-Geographic. Resources, diversity, disaster, continental position, ocean access.

It is then helpful to understand the psychology of the population. There is no finer book for creating an analytic matrix than that by Charles Hampden-Turner, Radical Man: The Process of Psycho-Social Development (Doubleday, 1971). He has also co-authored several important cross-cultural works since then and remains a vibrant source. Below are the categories that allowed me to create an original matrix for monitoring, understanding, and influencing revolutionary situations:

Perception. Ability to see discrepancies between what is and what might be. Identity. Ability to recognize own limitations, sensitivity to external conditions. Competence. Perception plus identity combine into personal efficacy. Investment. Authentic and intense dedication to the common good. Risk. Degree of tolerance for uncertainly. Extroversion. Active openness to the strange, ability to interact with the others. Transcendance. Founded on equality, degree to which others adopt one’s contributions. Synergy. Communities of interest create a larger whole than the sum of the elements. Complexity. Achievement of sanity through reconciliation of all aspects of live & death.

These will not be defined further, given the need for brevity, but suffice to say they helped me, after a comprehensive review of the literature on revolution, to fill in roughly one-third of the blocks in the Figure that follows, Figure 6. I then did original work to fill in the other two thirds of the blocks, and to operationalize the indicators (identify data that could be found and measured for each).

Revolution, as opposed to evolution, is a rejection of the status quo. From the point of view of those who oppose the current global behavior, policies, and consequences of the United States of America, in very general terms, virtual colonialism, unilateral militarism, and predatory immoral capitalism comprise the “hegemony of oppression” that billions—and especially those of the Muslim faith—find odious.

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Figure 8: Monitoring, Understanding, and Stabilizing Pre-Conditions of Revolution

Revolutions occur when preconditions exist (see Figure 7) that can be triggered by precipitants. Precipitants are generally situations where the failure of the status quo power is so great that it inspired a paradigm shift—a recognition that government is broken or illegitimate and must be replaced.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom among loosely-educated policy makers, revolutions are not made by the oppressed poor, but rather by well-educated and generally middle-class individuals who see

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what could be, and what is, and understand that the greater good of the community is being stolen by a tiny corrupt minority. The middle class revolutionary leaders then mobilize the larger population.

Revolutions go through four states: uncoordinated mass unrest; organized opposition; a formal stage of public recognition, and a final stage of legalization and institutionalization.

The United States of America is ripe for a partially violent revolution if it cannot achieve a peaceful return to informed engaged democracy in the near term, and at the same time overturn predatory immoral capitalism. It is also ripe for a fragmentation among the Nine Nations, and we must not be oblivious to the fact that there are 27 secessionist movements in America, among which Vermont stands out as the strongest.67 If we have these problems, imagine how fragile the rest of the world actually is, with 32 complex emergencies, millions of displaced across 66 countries, massive starvation across 33 countries, modern plagues in 59 countries and rising, 17 genocides (Darfur is but one among many), and virtually global corruption and censorship68 (including in the United States of America, where the Bush-Cheney Administration declared that dissent was treason—no less a figure that General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret) was so branded despite being the single most knowledgeable individual at the time on the matter of Iraq).

Levels of Analysis

Our current approach to intelligence is unbalanced in two important ways: first, we do not distinguish between the levels of analysis to evaluate threats whose degree of difficulty changes from one level to another; and second, we do not collect, process, and analyze military, civil, and geographic factor intelligence in a constant and integrated fashion. Figure 7 illustrates this point.

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Figure 9: Levels & Domains of Analysis for Integrated I2O 69

One important observation that must be emphasized is that in this integrated approach to I2O, secret intelligence is at best 20% of the totality of the information being exploited, and more often than not, at General Tony Zinni has said, less than 5%.70 While some speak of the blending of strategic and tactical intelligence sources & methods, in reality it is better to speak of I2O as the blending in time and space of all information, all the time. This means that Civil Affairs in the military is going to have to rise to be at least a Brigade, with battalions corresponding in foreign area and language skills to each of the COCOMs and serving with persistence for decades. This means that foreign language materials, including maps, from past to present, will be more important than secrets. Making sense of everything, all the time, in real time, will be the acme of skill.

Tribes and Coalitions

The other major change in modern IO or I2O is hinted at but not completely addressed by the Defense Science Board’s report on Transitions to and from Hostilities (December 2004), and the implementing DoD Directive 3000.cc. Both of these documents discuss the important of sharing information with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) but neither itemizes what I have called since 1992 the Information Continuum, and more recently, the eight tribes of intelligence:

Government (including state & local) Military (including all coalition partners) Law Enforcement (world-wide) Business (all nationalities) Academia NGOs

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Media Civil (including labor unions & religions)The reality is that I2O demands that intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) now be redefined

as intelligence & information operations preparation of the battlefield and the field of peace (I2OPBP) recognize all of these tribes as relevant parties to any situation, each with valuable relevant information to contribute to the commander’s mission accomplishment, and each of which could benefit from—and thus be incentivized to help the commander—if provided with useful relevant information from US forces operating in the host country, or—even better—that the indigenous individuals be provided with a discreet reachback capability in which the USA substitutes tailored unclassified intelligence support for a physical presence—I call this “virtual presence,” not to be confused with the Department of State’s usage, which represents a shallow web offering of access to information about the USA, rather than substantive tailored OSINT that can be used to create wealth, deter violence, and address critical local issues effectively.

Serious Games and Reality-Based Budgeting

The U.S. Army is a founding sponsor of the Serious Games Summit, and a pioneer in using Serious Games for training combined arms forces and individual soldiers. The next leap ahead with Serious Games will result from a rapidly emerging ability to feed game “shells” with real-world real-time information as well as deep historical and cultural information, and then play out different points of view, different investment strategies, and differing outcomes.

A specific example of an matrix of indices that could be plugged into a serious game is provided by the World Index for Social and Environmental Responsibility (WISER) created by the Natural Capital Institute under the leadership of Paul Hawken.71

The more traditional acme of skill is, as Sun Tzu said, defeating the enemy without fighting. The purpose of I2O is precisely that: to achieve early warning of all enemies, domestic and foreign, and to achieve cost-effective neutralization of hostile entities—including evil intolerant belief systems—while optimizing indigenous wealth creation that is inherently stabilizing. Legal ethical governance, and moral capitalism, are the end game. Information peacekeeping, not coalition warfare, is how we will fight and win the future.

There is plenty of money to achieve our objective, if we redirect secret intelligence budgets to provide for one-third public intelligence, one third free universal access to education (the ultimate IO offering), and the last one third reserved for secret operations against those whose evil belief systems to not respond to peaceful measures.

However, in order to be effective at using Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to achieve the Millennium Goals and create the better world for our Common Humanity, we must first monetize the cost of the ten threats, the savings that can be achieved by the twelve policies, and the profits to be shared by all humanity if we can help the eight challengers avoid the many mistakes we have made in the past century.

This program of reform is not optional. As Dr. Larry Brilliant put it in such compelling terms to a meeting at the United Nations, the metaphor for understanding the urgency of common understanding and action is communicable disease. No fewer than nineteen great sovereigns—Caesars, kings, and popes—have been killed by communicable diseases for which there was no known cure. No amount of money, no amount of power, can protect the elites from such a threat.72 All of the ten high-level threats are now globalized, and all of them are now achieving a potency that requires nothing less than a dramatic paradigm shift in affairs of man. The war metaphor is dead. We must wage peace.

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Roadmap for I2O

At the strategic level, there will be at least two major changes in how we address I20. First, we will finally recognize that all policy, acquisition, operations, and logistics information must be blended with all available intelligence—both secret and non-secret—in order to achieve strategic sense-making that is both holistic—at a minimum fully spanning and orchestrating Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) capabilities—and across time and space. Second, we will finally recognize that the secret intelligence community in the United States of America is inside-out and upside-down. It is inside-out because it is obsessing on divine illumination through the unilateral theft of very expensive secrets instead of starting with what can be known from multination, multiagency contributors to an information commons. It is upside-down because it spends much too much money on satellites in the sky, instead of human eyes and ears on the ground.73 I2O must be managed as an inter-agency endeavor, with the complete destruction of all stove-pipes at the same time that we achieve competency in open source software solutions for the end-user (not necessarily in the back office), and we achieve reliable “by name” content routing and audit trails. We do this by starting from the outside, with CISCO Application Oriented Network (AON), Google (stripped of its ties to the CIA), and several other network-based capabilities that provide good-enough security for unclassified to secret. Over time it will be the Top Secret and Codeword that migrate out, as minority players, rather than trying to firehouse distributed OSINT into a legacy system of stovepipes that is not, in our lifetime, going to evolve fast enough.

At the operational level, I believe that the Combatant Commanders require their own Title 10 authority for training, equipping, and organizing inter-agency joint task forces with an effective voice on how to make balanced inter-agency investments across the Area of Operations (AOR), and also Title 10 authority for training, equipping, and organizing coalition inter-agency task forces, to include the establishment within each theater of a Multinational Information Operations Center (MIOC).74

At the tactical level, I anticipate information superiority from a “bottom up” perspective rather than a top-down perspective. It will be the tactical cell telephones and hand-held tactical computers that will be talking to each other (and to tactical assets such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)), sharing weather and other operational information, and it will be “just enough, just in time” reachback and localized synthesis that will begin to influence the national budget, not the other way around. The squad leader responsible for the village will be able to use real-world open source intelligence (also known as unclassified decision-support) to make a case for an air drop of specified spare parts, local language lesson plans, and a myriad of micro-assistance that the national agencies today are simply not capable of defining, much less delivering. We will win tactically, on all fronts, by combining global information superiority with a bottom up “one village at a time” campaign that wins hearts and minds constantly and for eternity. Reality-based budgeting, responsive on a day to day basis, winning one village at a time.

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At the technical level, there will be two major changes. The first is that common sense and public intelligence will triumph, and begin accelerating the process of burying the secret intelligence systems and the Cold War “heavy metal military” that our war-profiteering military-industrial complex continues to promote through bribery and mis-representation.

Figure 10: The Future Global Intelligence Architecture

The second is that we will abandon the proprietary misbegotten mess of Command & Control, Communications, Computing, and Intelligence (C4I) systems that are unique to each Service, each Branch, each Command, and finally recognize that in the new I2O environment, we will still needed selective secrecy, but we must operate in the context of Free/Open Source Software (F/OSS), the Internet, accepted standards for meta-tagging of all information, and in the mind-set that displaces top-down unilateral mandates with bottom-up multilateral consensus judgments that are sustainable precisely because they are consensual. The figures below, Figures 9 and 10, shows in side-by-side form, how we would create a Global Information Grid (GIG) that is predominantly unclassified—“outside the wire”—but able to feed to the “high side” a firehose of multi-lingual multi-cultural information the IC is not able to connect to now, while simultaneously ensuring that this unclassified information is directly available to all levels of DoD and other Executive elements, while also easily shareable and inter-changeable with NGOs, universities, and other private sector parties wanting nothing to do with the secret world. Figure 10 shows where we need to go—nothing less than an abandonment over time of the “system-high” legacy that cannot digest nor make sense of the 90% of the information that is outside the wire. At the same time, as shown in Figure 11, we must continue to recognize that there are four quadrants in the I2O world,

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Figure 11: The Four Intelligence &Information Quadrants

and we must plan our migration so that initially the green feeds the red, but with the ultimate goal of having the red reside within the green as a purple “embedded” offering that can always be seen, securely, by those with authorized access, in the full context of all that can be known, in all languages, 24/7. It is very important, in evaluating Figure 11, to understand that the two left quadrants represent 95% of the financial, physical, and human investments of the taxpayers’ funds, but only produce roughly 5% of the value. This is consistent with General Tony Zinni’s evaluation previously. The other two quadrants represent 95% of the potential value, but because only 5% of the financial, physical, and human investment goes there (still with the mind-set of “Open Sores,” not the best way to attract the top people), it is my judgment that we are tapping into less than 10% of what we can and should know from the past and the present to devise the best possible future.

At the individual desktop level, it all comes down to this, shown in Figure 12, a global network of individuals comprising an Operational Planning Group (OPG) Virtual Private Network (VPN) for any given threat, policy, challenger, organization, location, or event,75 with all of the groups “matrixed” in a massive distributed (federated) network with multi-level security, automated tip-off, and robust back-office pattern analysis and anomaly detection that is easily accessible from tactical computers and hand-held devices. The technology is here now. The management mind-sets are not.

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Figure 12: The Eight Functionalities of the I2O World Brain Implementation

All of the above has addressed the foundation for saving the world, for securing lasting peace and sustainable prosperity. The foundation, however, is not enough. All knowledge in all languages must be operationalized, which is to say, it must be translated into real-world programs that impact on real people. We do this through the budgets of all Nations at all levels.

Recollect the wisdom of Mr. Don Gessaman, “It’s not policy until it’s in the budget,” and our earlier reference to the National Budget Simulation.

Our objective, in keeping with the recent legislative initiative of Senator Barak Obama (D-IL) and Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) and their colleagues who recently passed the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act, also known as the Coburn-Obama bill, is nothing less than to use the budget as a ground-truth foundation for dialog and collective public policy making in the public interest.76

This approach, as it extends to other Nations and other state or provincial or tribal and local jurisdictions, has two major advantages over our current reliance on largely secret budget authorizations, appropriations, and allocations.

First, it allows for open dialog by self-identified partisans, who in participating in such a dialog, create a trans-partisan dialog.77

Second, it quickly reveals not only all fraud, waste, and abuse, generally intended consequences arrived at through corruption and mis-direction of the public treasury, but it also reveals unintended redundancies and conflicts that can be resolved amicably, thus freeing up resources. In the immortal words of Mr. Arnie Donahue, then the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director for C3I (which is to say, all funds for command & control, communications, computing, and intelligence across the entire U.S. Government), “There is PLENTY of money for….”78

Using a vastly expanded web-based global online budget “game” that using serious game shells to integrate real-world information with alternative scenario gaming and consequence visualization with

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near, mid-, and long-term cross-cultural options, we harness the distributed intelligence and the inherent good will of the public. See Figure 12.

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Figure 13: WIki-Calc Plan for Saving the World

It is the public, not the bankers, that has the most to gain and the most to lose. The days of top-down unilateral policy-making that favors the few at the expense of the many are over. This will be a peaceful revolution, because information peacekeeping enables the public to not only see the brightness of the future, but to also see that the easiest way to incapacitate bankers is to simply say “no,” and to opt out of stocks, banks, and loans. Freedom is inviolable. We the People have awoken. Make sense, not war.79

Below I illustrate one simple application within a single node of the larger matrix shown in Figure 7.

Figure 14: Using Information to Achieve Progress

Conclusion

We know what we need to know to get our country, our government, our military, all back on track. All that is lacking is a few military leaders who can recognize and act on the above roadmap, both within official organizations, and as distributed social networks of volunteers empowered by both the Internet, and their new-found power to boycott the stock market, to boycott specific corporate products that contain excessive amounts of energy or water, and to not elect, or recall, elected officials whose actions are inconsistent with reality and the public interest. Our forces should not be sent in harm’s way on a pretext for war that is at best fraudulent and at worst manufactured deliberately. Thomas Jefferson had it right: “A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry.” Justice Louis Brandeis also had it right: “…the greatest menace to freedom is an inert people.” It’s time to reconstitute the Minutemen and fight for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Secret intelligence—and conventional military forces—have lost the bulk of their value. The industrial age era of “cut and paste” secret analysis is over. I2O is the new frame of reference. We must export intelligence and engage in multinational, multiagency information operations, in order to avert war and nurture both peace & prosperity.

One final note: the future of I2O is not federal, not secret, and not expensive. The vast bulk of what we need to know will be uploaded to the Internet, translated, and made sense of, by millions of volunteers of varying degrees of direct access, reliability, and knowledge. The Earth Intelligence Network is now being formed. Our task is to be open to its inputs, to structure ourselves for legal ethical connections with all parties in all languages, and above all, to abandon the top-down unilateral command & control mind-set and model that does not work any more. Bottom-up multi-cultural consensus, relying on open sources and methods, is the foundation for I2O. A depiction of that network as I am creating it in the service of transpartisanship,80 and a cartoon of what we must abandon, appear on the next page.

With God’s blessing, it is my hope that Army will lead the charge.

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Shared Information from China

and to ChinaPoverty

ChinaAgriculture

Behold, they are one people and they have all one language; and this is only the beginning of what they will do;

and nothing that they propose to do will be impossible for them.

Genesis 11:5-8 (Revised Standard)

Figure 15: The Defunct Secret Intelligence Mess 81

66 The author’s first graduate thesis (MA), Theory, Risk Assessment, and Internal War: A Framework for the Observation of Revolutionary Potential (Lehigh University, 1976) is the foundation for this section and the source of the original matrix in Figure 6. A condensed version was published as “Thinking About Revolution” in INTELLIGENCE: Selected Readings—Book One (Command & Staff College, Marine Corps University, AY 1992-1993). The author’s second graduate (MPA) thesis, on strategic and tactical information management for national security (University of Oklahoma, 1987) is drawn on throughout this paper in subtle ways, none meritorious of a direct citation.67 These words were written before Cable News Network (CNN) sponsored a week long series on Broken Government. See additional information at http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/broken.government. 68 A slide and sources on these varied global tribulations is included in the author’s presentation to the Department of State, supra note 59. Generally, the best reference on such matters, now out of print, is the “Map of Global Conflict & Human Rights” created by Berto Jongman under the sponsorship of the University of Leiden (The Netherlands) and the Goals for America Foundation, with some information coming from the State of the World Atlas in its various editions.69 With substantive guidance from Col Forest Lucy, USMC (Ret), then the second Director of the Marine Corps Intelligence Center, the author developed the Expeditionary Analysis Model by combining 143 warfighting factors each with five defined degrees of difficult, and an adaptation of Figure 6 on page 14. This was used to create the first every Expeditionary Factors Study: Planning and Programming Factors for Operations in the Third World (Marine Corps Combat Development Command, March 1990). The core elements are easily available via www.oss.net/BASIC. 70 Supra note 39. His complete statement is on page 7.71 Cf. http://www.naturalcapital.org/Projects.html.

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72 He was speaking to the Millennium Goals conference on our Common Humanity, 29 November 2006, at 1 UN Plaza in New York City. Along with Dr. Jeffrey Sachs and other world-class speakers, the focus was on what Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) can do to address achieve the Millennium Goals.73 CIA has lost its unilateral clandestine capability and is not going to recover it any time soon, in part because they are still focusing on recruiting puppies (the DoD program is too foolish to even comment upon). They are still reliant on foreign liaison for hand-outs, and completely unwilling to do foreign outreach (an exception is the Chief Information Officer, MajGen Meyerrose, USAF, for whom the author has the highest regard}. An excellent contribution to the literature is that of Dr. Jacob Kripp, LtCol Lester Grau, LtCol Karl Prinslow, and Capt John Smith, “The Human Terrain System: A CORDS for the 21st Century,” Military Review (September-October 2006). Our original discussion of the inside-outside and upside down character of today’s secret intelligence first appears as “Reinventing Intelligence, Forbes.com, 4-18-06.74 Briefing presented to the 90-nation coalition at the U.S. Central Command is at http://www.oss.net/MIOC. 75 Most “expert advisory councils” are pathologically limited to U.S. citizens, generally with clearances, who are chanced upon or were previously known. There is a very specific way to identify the top 100 international published experts and the top 100 unpublished international experts, and to harness their multi-cultural expertise through the OPG VPN that the author envisioned as part of a global Open Source Information System-External (OSIS-X) approved for Secret. The IC has known how to do this for years, and in 1992 we made it an issue with the Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, then Dr. Greg Treverton, our former teacher. They don’t do it for lack of time or funds. They don’t do it because their mind-set simply can’t handle it, their security officers won’t let them talk to foreigners, and their low-rent lawyers have learned only three words in the last twenty years: “don’t violate copyright.” Those words are irrelevant to the robust world of OSINT, but then, so is the IC.76 The proof of this concept as being advanced by the author was immediately proven in relation to the Act in question. No less an authority than the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) publicly acknowledged the vital assistance rendered by bloggers in “outing” the Senator who blocked the bill, and in ensuring that the bill was not undermined or delayed. Cf. Elizabeth Williamson, “OMB Welcomes Help from Anti-Pork Bloggers,” The Washington Post, 4 October 2006, page A23.77 James S. Turner, Esquire, today a partner in Swankin & Turner, was one of the first to join Ralph Nader when the latter was just starting out in politics. Today Mr. Turner is the foremost proponent for “transpartisanship.”78 This statement was made at the first annual international conference on “National Security & National Competitiveness: Open Source Solutions,” held at the McLean Hilton in Northern Virginia, 1-3 December 1992. The Proceedings from this and all following conferences are readily available via http://www.oss.net/LIBRARY. 79 The power of the individual citizen in relation to corporations is best articulated by the utterly brilliant Naomi Klein in No Logo: No Space, No Choice, No Jobs (Picador, 2002), who advocates a combination of volunteer citizen monitors blogging every aspect of any corporation’s misbehavior, combined with massive voluntary boycotts of that corporation’s products and services. Three world-class books on “volition” or the inherent freedom of the individual to control their environment are Andrew Galambos, Thrust for Freedom: An Introduction to Volitional Science (Universal Scientific Publications Company, 1999); James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg, The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age (Touchstone, 1997); and the truly original work, Andrew Galambos, SIC ITUR AD ASTRA: This Is the Way to the Stars (Universal Scientific Publications Company, 1999). The latter work is also known as “Course V-50 Volume One: The Theory of Volition.”

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Figure 16: Preview of the Earth Intelligence Network 82

80 Jim Turner, today with Swankin & Turner, was one of the first to join Ralph Nader in the larger quest to demand reponsibile corporate practices (it was not about car safety, or food safety, but rather about the larger process by which corporations were allowed to ignore costs and consequences). He is the pioneer for the concept of transpartisanship, and active in helping to re-unite America across all partisan boundaries.82 There are a handful of individuals inside the secret world that “get it.” Andy Shepard got it in 1992, but no one wanted to listen to him, either. The day will come when people like him are in charge of what will be left of the secret intelligence community, and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) will be appreciated as the foundation of both public intelligence in the public interest, and secret intelligence for those very small challenges that require secret sources & methods. Until that day comes, we will continue to waste taxpayer funds on massive secret waste.

Version 4.1 dated 15 December 2006. Posted to Earth Intelligence Network portal page at www.oss.net.

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NOTES

59 As articulated in his Foreword to the Special Operations Forces Open Source Intelligence Handbook (Strawman), prepared at the request of the John F. Kennedy School, and now possibly to be updated by the new Civil Affairs Brigade.60 This section draws on the three Forewords that Congressman Simmons has provided, respectively to the books on INFORMATION OPERATIONS and on THE SMART NATION ACT, and to the SOF OSINT Handbook61 The author is grateful to General Schoomaker for keeping him alive from 1997, when the author was about to give up, by ordering that OSINT be taught in every SOF schoolhouse, and that the OSINT branch be created. Today that branch, under the leadership of Mr. Ben Harrison, LtCol USA (Ret), produces 40% of all SOF Essential Elements of Information(EEI), for under $1 million a year. In 2000-2002, the author was privileged to be invited by General Wesley Clark, USA, then Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, to brief all the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Partnership for Peace (PfP) generals in charge of intelligence, and from that resulted a directive to General William Kernan, USA, then Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic, that resulted in the production of the NATO Open Source Intelligence Handbook, the NATO Open Source Intelligence Reader, and the NATO Intelligence Exploitation of the Internet. All are available free at www.oss.net in the Archives, and are the single most popular item there, with roughly 45 copies of each being downloaded every single day.62 The draft legislation slated for presentation in January includes as its first objective the protection and enhancement of OSINT within the IC, where OSINT does not have a Program Line of its own. There is no conflict, and considerable potential, to having an Open Source Intelligence Agency (OSIA) within the IC, and an Open Source Agency (OSA) outside the IC, serving all Departments of the Executive as well as their state and local constituencies.63 The books, part of a ten-book series that includes works by others and edited works, are as follows: ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World, Foreword by Senator David Boren (D-OK), 2000; THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political Foreword by Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS), 2002; PEACEKEEPING INTELLIGENCE: Emerging Concepts for the Future Foreword by Dame Pauline Neville-Jones, former Chair, Joint Intelligence (UK), 2003; INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons (R-CT-02), 2006; THE SMART NATION ACT: Public Intelligence in the Public Interest, Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons (R-CT-02), Sponsor of the Act, 2006; INFORMATION METRICS: Foundation for Successful Intelligence by Thomas J. Berkholtz, 2007; and COMMERCIAL INTELLIGENCE: Affordable, Distributed, & Open by Mats Bjore, 2008.64 Cf. Senator Tom Coburn, then Congressman Coburn, BREACH OF TRUST: How Washington Turns Outsiders Into Insiders (Nelson Current, 2003); and Thomas Mann, The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track (Oxford University Press, 2006).65 A slide on this point is included in the author’s presentation to the U.S. Department of State Secretary’s Open Forum, co-sponsored by the World Affairs Council, “The New Craft of Intelligence: How State Should Lead,” on 24 March 2004, easily available at http://tinyurl.com/wuya7. As an Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence told me directly, in 2001 and again in 2004, “we do not want to be a collector, we only want to be an end-user.” The ideal solution is an independent agency, funded by DoD, responsive to DoD, the IC, State, and the rest of the USG, with a diplomatic Office of Information Sharing Treaties and Agreements. This is in the proposed legislation.81 Gratuitous Cartoon, Courtesy of the Association of Former Intelligence Professional (AFIO)

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