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Global Research

Initial Coverage

Equity - Kuwait

Media Sector

14 June, 2011

Alrai Media Group (RMG)

Net profit expected to grow at a 2011-14 CAGR of 20.2% Net margins expected to improve to 17.6% in 2011 Program sales to diversify revenue base Favorable economic and demographic factors

Recovery in advertising revenues to boost profitability and margins We expect net profit to increase by 10.2% in 2011 as strong expected economic growth leads to a recovery in advertising revenues by an expected 7.5%. Increase in advertising revenues will increase profitability and margins as it does not require a proportionate increase in costs due to relatively fixed nature of the costs. We expect the net margins to increase to 17.6% in 2011 from 15.2% in 2010 and to 22.7% by 2014. Meanwhile net profits are further expected to grow by 29.9% in 2012 as program revenues recover after the expected decline in 2011.

Developments in Egypt to have an adverse impact on revenues in 2011 We expect total revenues to decrease by 4.8% to KWD14.3mn in 2011 as political developments in Egypt have disrupted plans to produce Egyptian dramas. However, the management has indicated its plan to rely on Gulf drama series as a replacement for Egypt drama series if situation in Egypt doesn’t improve after 2011.

Revenues expected to pick up from 2012 onwards We expect total revenues to increase by 12.3% in 2012 and 10.6% in 2013 driven by the likely recovery in program sales and further growth in advertising revenues. We expect contribution from advertising revenues to come down to 73.7% by 2014 as program sales form a greater proportion of sales.

Kuwait development plan to have a positive effect Implementation of Kuwait development plan (2010-14) of USD125bn will entail huge marketing and advertising campaigns for projects and resorts. A bulk of this advertising is likely to be made through newspapers due to high readership in Kuwait. With a high market share, Alrai newspaper is likely to benefit. We expect advertising revenue to remain the major source of revenue during our forecast period, with its contribution to total revenue above 70.0%.

Valuation The share price has come down by 50.0% since the company started trading on 26

th

October 2010. The share price plunged amidst political turmoil in the region. We believe, the stock is at oversold levels and offers a good opportunity to enter. The stock’s 2011e P/E is at a 47.6% discount to emerging market and Middle east media sector average 2011e P/E of 14.7 x. The stock is also trading at a discount of 34.0% to its DCF based fair value of KWD0.121.

Market Data

Bloomberg Code: ALRAI KK

Reuters Code: ALRA.KW

CMP (13 June 2011): KWD 0.080

O/S (mn) 233

Market Cap (KWDmn): 18.6

Market Cap (USDmn): 67.9

P/E 2011e(x): 7.7

P/BV 2011e (x): 0.7

Price Performance 1-Yr

High (KWD): 0.160

Low (KWD): 0.072

Average Volume: 390,192

1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 5.3 -29.8 N/A Relative (%) 7.9 -31.0 N/A

Price Volume Performance

Faisal Hasan, CFA Head of Research [email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951270 Umar Faruqui Financial Analyst [email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951438 Global Investment House www.globalinv.net

Strong Buy

Target Price

KWD 0.127

Source: Zawya

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0.14

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500

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Volume ('000) RMG (KWD)

Investment indicators

2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Revenue (KWD 000) 16,742 15,080 14,350 16,110 17,813 19,271

Net Profit (KWD 000) 2,893 2,212 2,436 3,166 3,698 4,228

EPS (fils) 34.8 9.5 10.5 13.6 15.9 18.1

BVPS (fils) 88.8 105.5 114.9 125.8 136.9 148.7

EV/EBITDA (x) N/A 14.8 10.0 7.1 5.5 4.3

P/E (x) N/A 12.0 7.7 5.9 5.0 4.4

P/BV (x) N/A 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

Source: Company Accounts & Global Research

Market price for 2011 and susbsequent years as per closing prices on June 13, 2011

Global Research – Kuwait Alrai Media Group (RMG)

June - 2011 2

Valuation & Outlook

Valuation Methodology For arriving at the fair value of cement companies, we have used a blend of two valuation methods:

1- Cash flow approach represented by the Discounted Cash flow Method. 2- Relative Valuation approach based on 2011e P/E multiple of comparable media companies in Middle East and emerging

countries.

The DCF is based on a 4-year forecast of free cash flows to the firm (2011-14). The free cash flows for the forecasted period and the terminal value are then discounted back at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to arrive at the total net present value (NPV) of the company. Subsequently cash and non-operating assets are added while long-term debt is subtracted to arrive at the equity value.

Cost of Equity is derived using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) using: 1- Yield of the government long term bond (10 years) as the risk free rate. 2- Market risk premiums of 7.0% for Kuwait. 3- Beta of 5 years monthly figures or less if the company has been listed for less than five years. If the actual beta of the

company is less than 1, we have taken beta as 1 to more appropriately reflect the associated risk. 4- Cost of debt of 6.5%. 5- WACC is based on the weighted average of cost of equity and cost of debt of the company.

Sensitivity Analysis We have carried out a sensitivity analysis to show the impact on fair value of changes in terminal growth rate and WACC.

RMG-Sensitivity Analysis

Terminal Growth Rate

0.121 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

10.0% 0.147 0.158 0.170 0.184 0.200

11.0% 0.125 0.133 0.142 0.153 0.165

12.0% 0.107 0.113 0.121 0.129 0.138

13.0% 0.092 0.097 0.103 0.110 0.117

14.0% 0.079 0.084 0.089 0.094 0.100

Source: Global Research

W

AC

C

DCF Valuation

(KWD 000) 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

FCFF 2,253 3,143 3,677 4,329

Discounted cash flow 2,117 2,637 2,756 2,898

NPV FCFF 10,408

NPV Terminal Value 31,386

Cash and cash equivalents 338

Enterprise value 42,132

Debt 14,000

Equity Value 28,132

Fair Value per share (KWD) 0.121


Global Research - Kuwait Alrai Media group (RMG)

June - 2011 3

Relative Valuation Method We have used relative valuation based on 2011e P/E multiple of comparable media companies in Middle East and emerging countries. Average media sector 2011e P/E multiple of 14.7x is based on arithmetic average of the companies presented in the table. This media sector average P/E is then multiplied with the forecasted 2011 EPS of RMG to arrive at the fair value.

Blended Price The blended price is then calculated after applying weight of 80% to the DCF value and 20% to the value from Relative Valuation method. The weighted average value comes to KWD0.127 per share.

Relative Valuation

Company Country Market Cap (USDmn) 2011e 2012e

Time Publishing and Media China 931 21.2 18.9

Indosiar Karya Media Indonesia 218 19.6 15.9

Hurriyet Gazetecilik Turkey 494 17.0 10.2

SRMG Saudi Arabia 388 16.5 14.0

UTV Softw are Communication India 674 15.4 12.6

Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd India 236 14.2 10.5

Star Publications Media Malaysia 829 13.0 12.0

Modern Media Holdings China 146 12.4 9.0

Kagiso Media Ltd South Africa 342 9.8 9.0

Ekspress Grupp Estonia 62 8.0 8.5

Average 14.7 12.1

RMG Kuw ait 68 7.7 5.9

RMG Fair Value (KWD) 0.154 0.164

Source: Bloomberg

Weighted Average Value

Valuation Method Weightage Value (KWD)

DCF Method 80.0% 0.121

Relative P/E valuation 20.0% 0.154

Weighted Average Value 0.127



June - 2011 4

Key Risks to Valuations

Prolonged delay in Egypt drama production

Prolonged delay in Egypt drama production beyond 2011 will adversely affect our net profit forecasts and hence valuation. Egypt is going through a political transition with uncertainty over the direction the country will take. We have assumed a start in production of Egyptian dramas from 2012.

Advertising revenues

Since advertising forms a major proportion of company’s revenues, any difference from our forecasts can have a significant impact on valuations.

Goodwill Impairment

Goodwill on account of purchase of Publishing, Printing Press Company accounted for 80.4% of total assets in 2010. Large-scale impairment of goodwill will have a negative impact on company’s equity.

Rise in cost of paper

The broad-based surge in commodity prices in recent years was a major source of global inflationary pressures. Cost of paper was no exception as pulp prices increased. Higher than expected rise in costs of paper will have a negative impact on valuation as it will increase the cost of producing newspapers.

Decline in newspaper readership

It is expected that newspaper readership will increase in the Middle Eastern countries unlike the developed countries where readership declining with the advent of computer tablets, smart phones, e-readers and free news websites. However, any fall in readership will have a negative impact on industry outlook and valuation of the company.

New titles

With 17 newspapers titles already in the Kuwaiti market, the entry of new titles seems unlikely. However entry of any major title can have an impact on the market share of the existing players.

Increase in price of newspapers

Newspaper prices have stayed constant at around 100 fils since many years. Though the likelihood of any increase in price is remote due to intense competition in Kuwait, any rise will provide upside to our valuations.

Monetizing of website

New York Times has started to charge fees to its website readers from 28 March 2010 and has receive a better than expected response with more than 100,000 readers subscribing the first month. The success of New York Times might set a trend for newspapers to charge for their online editions thus bringing in more revenue. Any possible step taken by Alrai group will provide upside to our valuations.


June - 2011 5

Alrai Media Group Introduction

Alrai Media Company is a Kuwait based company which was incorporated in 2003. The company is engaged in printing, publication, distribution of daily newspapers; the production and broadcasting of visual and sound media. The company has five wholly owned subsidiaries. Publishing, Printing Press Company

Alrai Media Group acquired Publishing, Printing Press Company (PPP) in 2008 for a total purchase cash consideration of KWD48.5mn. PPP was established in 1999. The company is engaged in the production and distribution of Alrai newspaper and other third-party publications. PPP has a large distribution network within Kuwait and outside where they distribute the newspaper to over 2000 point of sales.

Alrai Production Company

Alrai production Company (RPC) was established in 2008. The company is engaged in the production and distribution of Arabic Drama series for television broadcasting. The company is also engaged in the production of various programs and acquisition of third-party series. AlRai International for Marketing and Advertising

Alrai International for Marketing and Advertising (RIMA) is engaged in the management and publicity of Alrai newspaper and RTV. The company is also engaged in the acquisition of selling rights for third party print and visual media. AlRai Company for Strategic Studies

Alrai Company for Strategic Studies is a strategy consulting and research analytics company. The company is likely to start its operations after 2011. AlRai United Publications Company

Alrai United Publications Company is also engaged printing, publication and distribution activities. Sale of Alrai TV

Alrai TV was established in 2002. The company is engaged in free-to-air (FTA) television broadcasting. The name of the station is Alrai television which airs news and family entertainment programs. RMG sold its 100% equity stake in Alrai TV, including the media license, in September 2008 to a related party for KWD21.2mn. The proceeds from sale of RTV were offset against the purchase consideration of PPP.

RMG Group Structure

Source: RMG investor presentation & Global Research

Alrai Media Group

Publishing, Printing Press Company

Alrai Production Company

Alrai International for Marketing & Advertising Alrai Company for Strategic

StudiesAlrai United Publications

Company


June - 2011 6

RMG Ownership Structure

Source: RMG investor presentation

Boodai Enterprises Co.,

11.50%

Abdul Aziz & Jassim Trading

Co., 54.90%

Free Float, 33.60%

Company Management

Name Company Position Biography

Jassim Marzouk Boodai RMG Chairman Mr. Jassim Marzouk Boodai has w orked exclusively in media operations

since 1994. He has been the chief editor of Al Rai Al Aam new spaper

and AlRai new spaper. He also served as the CEO of Al Rai Television.

Previously he has also served as a board member of several companies

including Commercial Bank of Kuw ait , Industrial Bank of Kuw ait and

Arab Trust Co. besides being the Vice-Chairman of Securities Group

Company.

Yousef Al Jalahma RMG/RPC Vice Chairman/ Editor in Chief Yousef has a 20 years experience as a publications Director in

Ministry of Information. He joined as a Deputy Editor in Chief in 1998

and then became the Editor in Chief of Alrai New spaper.

Ali Alroz RMG Deputy Editor in Chief/ General Manager Ali has experience in journalism since 1978. HE has w orked at

Alhayat new spaper for 17 years as the Deputy Editor-in-Chief

Majed Al Ali RMG Deputy Editor in Chief Majed has approximately 14 years of experience in journalism.

He has been w orking at Alrai new spaper since 1996. He had

previously w orked in various minisries as a manager and consultant.

Adel Mustafa RMG Financial Controller Adel has 25 years experience in accounting, f inance and management.

For the past 17 years, Adel has w orked in the media sector.

Karim Tabet RIMA General Manager Karim has more than 26 years of marketing and communication

experience in the Middle East, He has w orked w ith some of the

region's larges advertising agencies and multinational clients

in Saudi Arabia and Kuw ait

Yasser Al Zain PPP Production and Distribution Manager Yasser has more than 17 years of new spaper printing experience.

Prior to joining RMG in 1995 Yasser w orked in Alanbaa New spaper

as head of section for the scanner department

Source: RMG investor presentation


June - 2011 7

Media and Advertising Industry in the Middle East Implications of Economic and Demographic Factors

The media industry is largely affected by the changes in the economic and demographic factors. The sustained surge in oil price since the year 2000 which saw oil prices reach record highs in 2H08 led to rapid economic development in the oil-rich GCC countries. Compared to the last boom, there was more focus on diversification of economic base this time around. Real estate, financial services and telecom sector witnessed massive growth leading to sharp increase in spending on advertising. During 2H08 oil prices fell sharply to around USD35 per barrel reflecting the financial downturn which engulfed the whole world. OPEC basket price averaged approximately USD94.0 per barrel for 2008 largely due to high prices in 1H 2008. Oil prices recovered to USD61.9 per barrel in 2009 as OPEC resorted to output cuts. The average price for 2010 increased by 28.3% to USD79.5 per barrel as world crude oil demand recovered by 1.9%YoY in 2010 after a decline of 1.6%YoY in 2009 on the back of global economic recovery. The increase in crude oil prices and recovery in global economy has improved the outlook for GCC economies. Kuwait’s economy is expected to increase by 4.4% in 2011. The increase in GDP growth rate is likely to lead to a pick-up in advertising expenditures by major corporations.

Population growth rates in the Middle East have historically been high. During the past 50 years the population has grown around an average of 2.6%. Though the population growth rate is likely to come down, it is likely to stay high compared to other regions. With over 300.0mn inhabitants in the Middle East, the region is home to a large market for media and advertising. Increase in disposable incomes and literacy rate is likely to lead to an increase in consumption of all types of media. Population in the Middle Eastern countries is heavily tilted towards the younger age group. As can be seen in the table the young population between the ages of 0-25 make up for a large proportion of the overall population. In Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Morocco, Jordan and Egypt the amount of population lying in this age group exceeds 50.0%. Young people tend to spend more on media and communication particularly with the advent of new technologies and communication mediums.

GCC GDP real growth rate

Source: IMF

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman

2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011e

Demographics

% of total population 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45 and above

Bahrain 27 17 14 16 26

Egypt 32 19 16 12 20

Jordan 33 20 18 14 15

Kuw ait 27 20 27 12 14

Lebanon 27 18 18 16 21

Morocco 31 20 17 13 19

Oman 43 17 13 11 17

Qatar 23 17 15 15 31

Saudi Arabia 38 19 21 13 10

Tunisia 24 20 18 15 23

UAE 21 15 30 22 13

Yemen 46 21 14 7 12

Source: Arab Media Outlook 2008-12


June - 2011 8

Newspaper circulation

Factors affecting newspaper circulation include literacy rate, number of dailies, demographic profile, distribution network and extent of media liberalization. Though, newspaper readership has been on the decline in the developed countries with the advent of online and other media, we are likely to see growth in the newspaper circulation in the Middle East region due to a strong reading culture in some countries and preference for the traditional media. High literacy rate leads to more consumption of the print media. However for countries with high young population and low levels of literacy rate such as Yemen growth in newspaper circulation is likely to be limited as consumers rely more on television and other media for news and entertainment. The literacy rate in the MENA region is estimated to be around 77.0% and is likely to increase as the governments in the region put more focus on education.

Media liberalization playing a big role in increasing readership

Media liberalization also plays a part in determining the size of readership. Economic boom coupled with more focus on the Middle East region since 2001 has forced newspapers to raise their standards by reporting on a wide array of topics. Advances in information technology, particularly the internet has also increased the appetite for new and uncensored information. The newspapers in this region are constantly upgrading their reporting format to cater for the changing needs. The level of competition is high with around 190 newspaper titles in the Middle East region including 4 Pan-Arab dailies. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE have the highest circulation numbers in the region of 4.2mn, 1.9mn and 1.1mn respectively making up for approximately 63.0% of the overall circulation in the region. The region is projected to witness modest growth in circulation at a 2010-2013 CAGR of 2.3%.

Total Newspaper Titles in the Arab region


144

152

161

167

177

188 189

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Circulation of Daily Newspapers (000)

Country 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e CAGR (10-13)

Bahrain 178 203 189 194 199 204 210 2.7%

Egypt 3,627 3,774 4,018 4,177 4,342 4,511 4,686 3.9%

Jordan 302 327 313 317 322 326 329 1.2%

Kuwait 550 986 961 979 994 1,008 1,022 1.4%

Lebanon 386 381 396 400 404 407 410 0.8%

Morocco 754 761 710 722 731 742 757 1.6%

Oman 234 249 274 275 276 277 278 0.4%

Palestine 80 86 80 80 86 86 86 2.4%

Qatar 204 209 211 216 221 226 232 2.4%

Saudi Arabia 1,756 1,855 1,878 1,903 1,934 1,956 1,980 1.3%

Sudan 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 2.0%

Syria 358 361 379 382 385 388 391 0.8%

Tunisia 355 369 399 404 408 413 418 1.1%

UAE 993 1,101 1,092 1,111 1,128 1,142 1,153 1.2%

Yemen 165 167 170 171 172 173 175 0.8%

Arab Region 10,035 10,831 11,164 11,427 11,701 11,961 12,231 2.3%



June - 2011 9

Advertising

MENA region, particularly the GCC region witnessed high economic growth rates since the year 2000 which coincided with the oil boom. Advertising revenues surged as companies looked to target increasingly affluent and informed consumers. Launching of new projects and products also entailed massive advertising campaigns. The growth in advertising revenues was particularly high in 2008 when advertising revenues of all the countries in the Middle East and North African region increased by double digits. Saudi Arabia and Egypt which are by-far the largest countries in terms of population witnessed an increase in advertising revenues by 20.1% and 42.1% respectively in 2008. Advertising revenues on the way to recovery after the global financial crisis

Advertising budgets are usually the first items cut by companies in a recession. According to the report “Arab Media Outlook 2009-2013” advertising revenue fell by 13.1% in the Arab region in 2009 compared to growth of 30.2% in 2008. With the global economy on the path to recovery advertising revenues of the Arab region are expected to grow at a 2010-13 CAGR of 7.6%. Saudi Arabia and UAE are the most important markets in the GCC with estimated advertising revenues of USD726mn and USD950mn respectively in 2010. Saudi Arabia with its large size both in terms of its economy and population and UAE as a media hub are likely to continue attracting bulk of the advertising revenue in the region. Newspapers remain the main recipients of advertising revenue in the Middle East accounting for approximately 40%-50.0% of overall advertising revenue in 2010 with the exception of Morocco and Lebanon where television attracts more advertising revenue due to the fragmented nature of the newspaper industry and liberalized nature of the television industry.

Advertising Revenue (USDmn)

Country 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e CAGR (10-13)

Bahrain 76 85 75 79 85 90 95 6.3%

Egypt 458 654 719 789 851 896 936 5.9%

Jordan 86 104 105 112 123 136 150 10.2%

Kuw ait 358 415 361 388 416 443 472 6.8%

Lebanon 188 217 225 241 256 268 280 5.1%

Morocco 231 268 284 309 338 373 408 9.7%

Oman 74 105 85 92 102 108 113 7.1%

Palestine 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 6.5%

Qatar 163 207 205 238 266 290 313 9.6%

Saudi Arabia 710 853 679 726 820 904 980 10.5%

Sudan 13 15 14 18 20 23 26 13.0%

Syria 30 40 41 47 52 59 68 13.1%

Tunisia 28 39 40 42 45 48 52 7.4%

UAE 839 1,229 784 950 1,042 1,120 1,181 7.5%

Yemen 8 10 13 13 14 16 17 9.4%

Pan Arab 802 1,053 965 1,049 1,141 1,196 1,252 6.1%

Arab Region 4,068 5,296 4,600 5,096 5,577 5,974 6,346 7.6%


Total Advertising Revenue by Medium (USDmn)

Platform 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e CAGR (10-13)

New spapers 2,107 2,819 2,294 2,547 2,753 2,937 3,104 7.9%

Magazines 384 456 330 367 428 468 511 11.6%

Television 1,213 1,566 1,501 1,610 1,731 1,818 1,903 6.1%

Radio 87 114 122 135 148 160 167 8.2%

Out-of-home 263 313 298 321 345 370 395 7.3%

Internet 13 29 56 117 171 222 266 48%

Total 4,068 5,296 4,600 5,096 5,577 5,974 6,346 8.4%



June - 2011 10

Kuwait Media Industry Print media; the magnet for advertising revenue

According to Arab Media Outlook 2009-13, the print sector accounts for 80.0% of the overall advertising revenue in Kuwait. And within the print media, newspapers account for bulk of the advertising revenue. As can be seen in the table below, newspaper advertising accounted for 82.4% of the total advertising revenue. Advertising revenue was adversely affected by the financial crisis in 2008 and the ensuing recession in 2009. Total advertising revenues fell by an estimated 12.9% to USD361.5mn as the major advertisers in the newspapers which include real estate, autos and banking sector were severely affected by the crisis and resorted to a cut in advertising expenditures.

Circulation to grow at a modest pace

The circulation grew substantially in 2008 by 79.3% in 2008 to 986,000 according to Arab Media Outlook. We believe, the launch of new titles is the likely reason behind such a drastic increase. It is a common trend in offices and hotels to subscriber to many newspapers at the same time. The circulation is likely to grow at a modest rate 2010-13 CAGR of 1.4%. The growth rate in circulation appears to be attractive if it is placed within the context of a decline in newspaper readership in the developed countries. The increase in readership is likely to be driven by increase in population, particularly the expected rise in expatriate population due to the expected acceleration in development activities.

Kuwait daily newspaper circulation (000)

Source: Arab Media Oulook 2009-13

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Kuwait advertising projections

USD mn 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e

Internet 0 0.9 2.1 6.1 11.0 14.0 15.0

Radio 4.4 4 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.5 5

Out-of-home (including cinema) 39.0 30.0 36.0 39.0 43.0 49.0 54.0

Magazine 33.0 35.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 34.0 37.0

Television 15.0 27.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 27.0

Newspapers 267.0 318.0 270.0 286.0 302.0 317.0 334.0

Total 358.4 414.9 361.5 387.8 416.2 443.5 472

Source: Arab Media Outlook


June - 2011 11

Alrai is one of the leading newspapers in Kuwait

Alrai Daily is a comprehensive Arabic newspaper. The newspaper covers, political, business, financial and social issues. According to the prospectus, citing studies issued by accredited research firms in the region, Alrai newspaper is one of the top dailies in the market in terms of coverage, circulation and readership. Alrai daily has market share of 24.0% in Kuwait in terms of centimeters per column. Centimeters per column are a unit of measure of space in which advertising space is sold. The newspaper also has an online presence. An estimated 10-15% of revenues are generated through circulation of the newspaper in Kuwait while the rest is accounted for by advertising revenues. The price of newspaper in Kuwait has been stable in the past 30 years at 100 fills. Main competitors for the newspaper include Alwatan and Alqabas which were the few newspapers present before the deregulation and liberalization in 2006. Liberal media environment

In 2006, Press and Publications Law were introduced in Kuwait, which led to issuance of more newspaper licenses and consequently launch of more titles. The number of dailies has increased from 8 in 2006 to 17 in 2009. There are 14 Arabic newspapers and 3 English newspapers. In February 2009, Assawt newspaper closed down after a few months due to financial difficulties. We believe, the launch of further newspaper titles in Kuwait is unlikely due to the prevailing high level of competition. Going forward, the well established brands are more likely to survive. Kuwait enjoys high readership due to high literacy rates and liberal media environment. Kuwait has the most transparent media in the Arab World. This distinction was recognized with Kuwait being ranked the first in the Middle East and the Arab League in the freedom of press index

Newspaper Titles in Kuwait


7 7

8 8

13

17 17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Alrai Daily Market Share (CM/Cols)

Source: Alrai Media Group

Alrai Daily, 23%

Others, 77%

2008

Alrai Daily, 24%

Others, 76%

2009

Alrai Daily, 24%

Others, 76%

2010


June - 2011 12

Television and Film Production Industry

The television and film production market in the Middle East is estimated to have reached USD1.7bn in 2007, of which television production spending accounted for 90.0% according to RMG prospectus. According to the prospectus TV series and movies have continued to capture bulk of the advertising revenues in the region. According to Arab Media Outlook, the Middle East region has a high demand for content that is developed locally and in Arabic language. We believe this is where RMG is likely to cash in. The Alrai production Company was originally scheduled to produce 6 Gulf series and programs in 2011. However, because of political turmoil in Egypt, it has led to disruption in production plans. The company plans to produce a total of 18 series and movies in 2012 and increase it to 23 by 2014. However, the amount is subject to revision in view of the fast moving political developments taking place in the Middle East region.

Increase in sales to third-parties to diversify production revenue base

Alrai Tv had a market share of 15.0% in 2010. Terrestrial Tv transmissions started in the 1960’s. The government operates three terrestrial TV channels. Meanwhile Alrai Tv was launched in 2004 and Alwatan TV was launched in 2007. Production sales to RTV accounted for 31.0% of total revenue from program sales from RMG. Meanwhile production sales to third parties have been estimated to have accounted for 59.0% in 2010. We expect the share of sale of programs to third-parties to increase further which will further diversify the program production revenue base.

Alrai Tv Kuwait Market Share

Source: RMG

Alrai TV, 33

Others, 67

2008

Alrai TV15%

Others

85%

2009

Alrai TV, 15

Others, 85

2010

RPC Revenue Breakdown

Source: RMG

Production sales to RTV, 31%

Sales of RPC archive, 9%

Commission on sales from RTV

archive, 1%

Production sales to third parties,

59%


June - 2011 13

Alrai Media Group – Overview & Forecast

Election spending boosted revenues in 2008

Revenue for the company jumped substantially by 38.7%YoY in 2008 to KWD15.6mn. The sharp jump was due to a jump in advertising revenue by 43.5%YoY in 2008. The advertising revenue received a boost in 2008 due to spending on parliament elections and condolences on the death of the former Emir. Revenue further increased by 3.6% to KWD16.2mn in 2009. The increase was due to the revenue of KWD3.6mn from sale of programs which outweighed the decline in advertising revenue in 2009. Alrai Production Company, which produces and sells the programs, started its operations in 2009. Advertising the mainstay of revenues

Advertising revenue accounted for 88.9% of the total revenue in 2007. However it decreased to 74.0% of total revenue in 2010 due to contribution of revenue from sale of programs. Meanwhile sale of newspaper account for 9.0% of the total revenue. As can be seen in 2009 advertising revenue fell as global financial crisis forced companies to curtail their advertising budgets. Advertising revenue fell by 21.9% in 2009. However, the decline was offsetted by increase in revenue from productions. On the other hand, revenue from sale of newspapers has remained fairly stable and grown at a 2007-10 CAGR of 1.5%.

Revenue (KWD mn)

Source: RMG annual reports

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

2007 2008 2009 2010

Revenue Breakdown (KWD mn)

Source: RMG annual reports

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2007 2008 2009 2010

Advertising income Sale of newspapers Sale of programs Others


June - 2011 14

Revenues likely to pick up post 2011

We expect total revenues to decrease by 4.8% to KWD14.6mn in 2011 as political developments in Egypt has disrupted plans to produce Egyptian dramas which will have an impact on revenues from sales of programs. However, the management has indicated its plan to rely on Gulf drama series as a replacement for Egypt drama series if situation in Egypt doesn’t improve. On the other hand, we expect advertising revenues to recover on the back expected high economic growth rates due to sustained high oil prices above USD100 per barrel YTD in 2011. In addition, announcement of Kuwait development plan (2010-14) of USD125bn will entail huge marketing and advertising campaigns for projects and resorts. A bulk of this advertising is likely to be made through newspapers due to high readership in Kuwait. With a high market share, Alrai newspaper is likely to benefit. We expect advertising revenue to remain the major source of revenue during our forecast period, with its contribution to total revenue above 70.0%.

Contribution from advertising revenues to decline

We expect advertising revenues to increase by 7.5%YoY to KWD11.6mn in 2011 and increase by a further 7.5% to KWD12.5mn in 2012. The contribution of advertising revenue to total sales is likely to increase again to 83.5% in 2011 after a decline in previous two years. However with the expected recovery in program sales from 2012 onwards, we expect contribution from advertising revenues to come down to 75.6% by 2014. Meanwhile, we expect the program sales to decline by 75% to KWD0.61mn due to the stop in production of Egyptian drama. However, we expect program sales to recover strongly by 130% in and 70.0% in 2012 and 2013 to KWD1.4mn and KWD2.4mn respectively as production starts in Egypt. Alrai is planning to produce 8 Gulf series and programs and 5 Egyptian series in 2012. Meanwhile, revenue from sale of newspaper is likely to witness a fairly stable growth at a 2012-14 CAGR of 2.0% after a significant jump in 2011 due to the Kuwait’s 50

th and 20

th

Independence and Liberation day festivities. It should be noted that the price of newspapers have remained stable in Kuwait at around 100 fils per newspaper since around 30 years. Though the probability of hike in newspaper price considering the competition remains low, any possible increase can lead to an upside in revenue estimates.

Revenue Breakdown Forecast


Advertising income, 80.8%

Sale of newspapers,

11.6%

Sale of programs, 4.3%

Others, 3.3% 2011e


Sale of newspapers,

10.6%

Sale of programs,

8.8%

Others, 3.3%2012e


Sale of newspapers, 9.7%

Sale of programs,

13.5%

Others, 3.3%2013e


Sale of newspapers,

9.2%

Sale of programs, 16.2%

Others, 3.3%2014e

Revenue Forecast (KWD mn)


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Revenue Growth


June - 2011 15

Material and staff costs

Newspaper publishing is a capital intensive business. In other words, it has a high operating leverage with the implication that in times of economic boom, the operating margins can increase substantially as more revenue is generated through advertising without a proportionate increase in costs. Cost of paper and ink are major cost factors for newspaper publishing and thus does not increase proportionally as advertising revenues increase. As can be seen in the graph below, material and staff costs form majority of the costs. Material costs formed 28.9% of sales ex program sales in 2010 while staff costs accounted for 29.6%. Though material costs tend to vary with increase in number of newspapers circulated, staff costs tend to stay more or less constant, barring the increase in production capacity. However, the increase in revenue driven by advertising will not be followed by a proportionate increase in costs as being reflected in the cost forecast. We expect material cost to come down to 21.7% of sales revenue ex programs sales by 2014 while we expect staff costs to come down to 29.6% by 2014. In 2009 RPC started production. The cost of the programs has been classified in depreciation and amortization in the financials. However, for forecasting purposes have we have forecasted it separately. The cost formed 73.6% of program revenues in 2010.

The cost of paper is one of the major cost components in the production of newspaper. The cost of paper shot up in 2007 and 2008 by 10.2% and 6.2% to KWD325 and KWD345 per ton respectively. High oil and gas prices prices coupled with strong growth in global economy led to a strong growth in pulp prices and hence growth in paper prices. Pulp is the main input in packaging material and paper products. However, the global financial crisis led to a drop in paper prices by 7.2% to KWD320 per ton. The paper prices remained fairly stable in 2010. We believe that paper prices are unlikely to witness the spikes experienced in 2007 and 2008 as more readership moves on to the digital space in the developed countries with the increasing popularity of tablet computers and e-readers.

Cost of paper (KWD per ton)

Source: RMG

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Material and staff costs as % of sales ex programs

Source: Company reports & Global Research

20.0%

22.0%

24.0%

26.0%

28.0%

30.0%

32.0%

34.0%

2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Materials costs Staff costs


June - 2011 16

Sale of subsidiary inflates net profit in 2008

The group disposed of 100.0% of its equity stake in its media business Alrai TV Company in September 2008 for KWD21.2mn. The company generated a profit of KWD12.1mn on the sale of this subsidiary. Alrai Tv was making a loss making entity which pulled down net profit into the negative territory in 2007 to KWD3.52mn. However the net profit got inflated in 2008 to KWD13.3mn as the company recognized gain on sale of the subsidiary. Meanwhile, profit from continuing operations increased substantially by 473.2% to KWD3.39mn driven by substantial increase in advertising revenue by 43.4% in 2008. The continuing operating profit margin increased to 20.8% in 2008 compared from 5.0% in 2007 reflecting the impact of high operating leverage. Subsequently the net profit from continuing operations declined by 14.7% to KWD2.9mn in 2009 as the global financial crisis and its adverse impact on advertising showed its impact on company profitability. The net profit fell by a further 23.5% in 2010 to KWD2.2mn as revenue from sale of programs fell 32.7%.

Net profit growth to accompany margin growth

We expect net profit to increase by 10.2% in 2011 despite the expected decrease in total revenues. We expect advertising revenues to drive the growth in profitability and net margins in 2011 as costs are expected to remain more or less constant. We expect the net margins to increase to 17.6% in 2011 from 15.2% in 2010. We expect net profits to grow by a further 29.9% in 2012 as program revenues recover after the expected decline in 2011. We expect net margins to improve to 20.3% in 2012 and 22.7% by 2014.

Profitability (SARmn)

Source: Company accounts

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

2007 2008 2009 2010

Profit from continuing operations Net Profit

Net Profit Forecast (SARmn)


15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Net Profit Net Profit margins


June - 2011 17

INCOME STATEMENT

(KWD 000) 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Advertising income 14,346 11,197 10,786 11,595 12,465 13,088 13,743

Sale of newspapers 1,260 1,281 1,308 1,668 1,702 1,736 1,770

Sale of programs - 3,696 2,489 615 1,414 2,404 3,125

Other revenues 680 569 496 472 530 586 634

Total Revenues 16,286 16,742 15,080 14,350 16,110 17,813 19,271

Materials (4,230) (3,602) (3,022) (3,170) (3,233) (3,298) (3,364)

Staff (3,211) (3,687) (3,925) (4,171) (4,305) (4,443) (4,585)

Advertising and Promotion (1,376) (1,348) (1,113) (1,249) (1,402) (1,550) (1,677)

Cost of Programs - (3,427) (1,840) (461) (1,046) (1,755) (2,265)

Depreciation and amortization (292) (325) (325) (349) (382) (415) (448)

Other operating expenses (745) (1,073) (1,689) (1,679) (1,854) (2,050) (2,218)

Operating Profit 6,431 3,281 3,165 3,272 3,887 4,302 4,714

Finance cost (3,223) (305) (904) (780) (650) (520) (390)

Gain / (Loss) from investments through P/L 220 (52) - - - - -

Profit Before Tax 3,428 2,923 2,261 2,492 3,237 3,782 4,324

Income Tax/ KFAS/ NLST (37) (31) (49) (55) (72) (84) (96)

Profit from discontinued operations 9,898 - - - - - -

Profit After Tax 13,290 2,893 2,212 2,436 3,166 3,698 4,228

P&L Appropriation Account:

Opening Balance of Retained Earnings (17,039) (3,749) (857) 1,074 3,023 5,239 7,458

Net Profit for the Year 13,290 2,893 2,212 2,436 3,166 3,698 4,228

Transfer to legal reserves - - (281) (244) (317) (370) (423)

Closing Balance of Retained Earnings (3,749) (857) 1,074 3,023 5,239 7,458 9,784

Source: Company Reports & Global Research



June - 2011 18

BALANCE SHEET

(KWD 000) 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Cash and Bank Balance 4,884 1,306 338 365 874 1,442 2,291

Inventories 484 224 374 361 405 448 485

Trade and Receivables 3,435 4,577 7,346 7,494 7,790 8,614 9,319

Investments at fair value through P/L 300 - - - - - -

Due from related parties 786 20 8 58 52 52 52

Current Assets 9,889 6,128 8,066 8,278 9,122 10,556 12,147

Property, Plant & Equipment 1,472 1,187 915 865 783 668 520

Intangible Assets 37,542 37,678 37,695 37,678 37,678 37,678 37,678

Non-Current Assets 39,015 38,865 38,610 38,544 38,462 38,347 38,199

Total Assets 48,904 44,993 46,676 46,821 47,583 48,903 50,346

Contingent liabilities provision 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

Due to related parties 12,284 12,284 2,598 1,991 1,991 1,991 1,991

Delayed payment obligations 27,283 - - - - - -

Term Loan - - 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

Trade and Payables 3,828 4,062 4,253 4,649 4,690 5,203 5,647

Current Liabilities 43,539 16,491 8,996 8,785 8,826 9,339 9,783

Bank loans - - 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000

Deferred Payment Obligations - 20,027 - - - - -

Post employment benefits 885 1,103 1,096 1,260 1,449 1,666 1,916

Long Term Liabilities 885 21,130 13,096 11,260 9,449 7,666 5,916

Share Capital 8,304 8,304 23,304 23,304 23,304 23,304 23,304

Treasury Shares (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75)

Legal Reserve - - 281 524 841 1,211 1,634

Accumulated Profit / Loss (3,749) (857) 1,074 3,023 5,239 7,458 9,784

Total Shareholders Equity 4,479 7,372 24,584 26,777 29,309 31,898 34,646

Total Equity & Liability 48,904 44,993 46,676 46,821 47,583 48,903 50,346




June - 2011 19

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(KWD 000) 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Operating Activities

Profit for the Year 13,290 2,893 2,212 2,436 3,166 3,698 4,228

Depriciation & Amortization 4,560 3,752 2,165 349 382 415 448

Provisions 35 - 350 (607) - - -

Post-employment benefits (87) 218 (7) 164 189 217 250

Finance Cost 3,223 305 904 - - - -

Loss gain through P/L (220) 52 - - - - -

Change in WC (14,876) 118 (12,751) 210 (294) (353) (297)

Cash Flow from Operations 5,925 7,338 (7,127) 2,553 3,443 3,977 4,629

Investing Activities

Purchase of Property Plant & Equipment (219) (40) (53) (300) (300) (300) (300)

Acquisition of intangibles (4,624) (3,562) (1,857) 17 - - -

Proceeds from / Purchase of investments (75) 248 - - - - -

Payment for subsidiary under incorporation (200) - - - - - -

Cash resulted from acqusition 283 - - - - - -

Cash Flows from Investing Activities (4,834) (3,354) (1,910) (283) (300) (300) (300)

Financing Activities

Share Capital Issued 3,304 - 15,000 - - - -

New Bank Loan - - 14,000 (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)

Deferred Payment Obligatioon - (7,256) (20,027) - - - -

Finance Cost Paid - (305) (904) - - - -

Cash Flows from Financing Activities 3,304 (7,562) 8,069 (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)

Cash Balance - Beginning 489 4,884 1,306 338 365 874 1,442

Net Change in Cash 4,395 (3,578) (968) 26 510 568 849

Cash Balance - Ending 4,884 1,306 338 365 874 1,442 2,291




June - 2011 20

Ratio Analysis

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Liquidity Ratios

Current Ratio (x) 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Quick Ratio (x) 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Operating Cashflow per share (fils) 71.4 88.4 (30.6) 11.0 14.8 17.1 19.9

Receivables Outstanding (Days) 80.3 103.3 183.8 197.1 182.5 182.5 182.5

Intangible Assets as % of Total Assets 76.8% 83.7% 80.8% 80.5% 79.2% 77.0% 74.8%

Profitability Ratios

EBITDA margin 28.2% 20.1% 17.7% 20.5% 23.2% 24.4% 25.6%

EBIT margin 22.0% 18.1% 15.5% 18.0% 20.8% 22.0% 23.2%

Net Profit Margin 85.2% 17.9% 15.2% 17.6% 20.3% 21.5% 22.7%

Return on Average Assets 45.1% 6.2% 4.8% 5.2% 6.7% 7.7% 8.5%

Return on Average Equity 296.7% 48.8% 13.8% 9.5% 11.3% 12.1% 12.7%

Growth indicators

Revenue growth 38.7% 3.6% -9.8% -4.8% 12.3% 10.6% 8.2%

Net profit growth NM -78% -24% 10.2% 29.9% 16.8% 14.3%

EBITDA growth 192.4% -26.2% -20.4% 9.8% 27.4% 16.0% 13.7%

Total Asset growth 388.0% -8.0% 3.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.8% 3.0%

Leverage Ratios

Debt / Equity (x) 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

Debt to total capitalization 0.0% 0.0% 25.7% 21.4% 16.8% 12.3% 7.9%

Interest coverage 2.1 10.6 3.5 4.2 6.0 8.3 12.1

Net debt / EBITDA (1.1) (0.4) 4.5 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.4

Ratios Used for Valuation

EPS (fils) 160.0 34.8 9.5 10.5 13.6 15.9 18.1

Book Value Per Share (fils) 53.9 88.8 105.5 114.9 125.8 136.9 148.7

EV/Revenue (x) N/A N/A 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1

EV/EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 14.8 10.0 7.1 5.5 4.3

Dividend Yield - - - 1.3% 3.4% 6.0% 7.9%

FCF yield N/A N/A -27.0% 12.1% 16.9% 19.7% 23.2%

Market Price (fils) N/A N/A 114 80 80 80 80

Market Capitalization (KWD 000) N/A N/A 26,566 18,643 18,643 18,643 18,643

P/E Ratio (x) N/A N/A 12.0 7.7 5.9 5.0 4.4

P/BV (x) N/A N/A 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5


* Market price for 2011 and subsequent years as per closing prices on on June 13, 2011



June - 2011 21

Disclosure

The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure.

Disclosure Checklist

Recommendation Bloomberg

Ticker Reuters

Ticker Price

Disclosure Company

Alrai Media Group STRONG BUY ALRAI KK ALRA.KW KWD0.080 1,10

1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the

preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct

ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year, Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it

received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial

advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this

company in the next three month. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures.

Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions

Global Rating Definition

STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is >20% from the current market price

BUY Fair value of the stock is between +10% and +20% from the current market price

HOLD Fair value of the stock is between +10% and -10% from the current market price

SELL Fair value of the stock is < -10% from the current market price

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