initial project assessment ipa (sample)
TRANSCRIPT
W I N D
FullViewInitial SiteAssessment
Yellowstone May 06, 2010
FOR CONTACT
Client
2001 6th Avenue, Suite 2100Seattle, WA 98121-2534
ph: +1 206.325.1573fax: +1 206.325.1618
NOTICECopyright c©2010 3TIER, Inc. All rights reserved. 3TIER claims a copyright in all proprietaryand copyrightable text and graphics in this Report, the overall design of this Report, and theselection, arrangement and presentation of all materials in this Report. This work may beredistributed only in its entirety. Partial redistribution is prohibited without express writtenpermission from 3TIER. Requests for permission may be directed to [email protected].
YellowstoneFor Client
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Contents
1 Introduction 21.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 Data provided by Client . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.3 Deliverables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.4 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2 Wind Resource and Capacity Factor Maps at 80m 5
3 Reference Point Analysis 73.1 Wind Roses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.2 Power Roses (for the SWT23 turbine) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 12 by 24 Tables 12
5 Turbine Information 145.1 Individual Turbine Detail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145.2 Turbine Power Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.1
IntroductionYellowstoneFor Client
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1 INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1 Overview
3TIER has been retained by Client to assess the wind resource over the Yellowstone region, and our analysis is presentedin this report. This summary section discusses the overall properties of the project. Following it, section 2 shows the meanwind speed and capacity factor over the entire Yellowstone region, at 200m resolution, and displays turbine and referencepoint locations. Section 3 contains mean wind speeds and wind and power roses at the 5 reference points provided byClient. Project-wide monthly, hourly, and annual means for wind speed and capacity factor can be seen in section 4.
In section 5, tabular data for each turbine are available, including location, base elevation, mean wind speed (at hubheight), mean air density (also at hub height), and wind shear between 30m and 80m. The turbine power curve for theSWT23 (with hub height 80m) is also provided, in Table 5. For overall project data and production statistics, see Table 1directly below. These quantities are computed over every turbine location (see section 5), and do not include data fromthe reference points.
Project mean wind speed 7.97 m/sAverage air density across turbines 0.89 kg/m3
Average turbine base elevation 3024 mProject gross capacity factor 39.5 %Project gross energy production 53.6 MWProject net capacity factor 33.4 %Project net energy production 45.3 MW
Table 1: Project statistics
Statistics for the turbines with the highest and lowest mean gross capacity factor can be seen below, in Table 2. Additionalinformation for these and all 59 turbines can be found in Section 5.
T055 (best)
Mean wind speed 9.88 m/sGross capacity factor 56.1 %Gross energy production 1.3 MW
T007 (worst)
Mean wind speed 6.43 m/sGross capacity factor 25.5 %Gross energy production 0.6 MW
Table 2: Statistics for the best and worst turbines
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.2
IntroductionYellowstoneFor Client
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1.2 Data provided by Client
Client has provided 3TIER with 59 turbine locations to be used in an analysis of the wind resource across the Yellow-stone region (see section 2 for the locations of these turbines). At each of these turbine locations, timeseries data wereextracted from the model output and used to compute the capacity factor for that turbine. Detailed information for eachturbine can be seen in section 5, and the overall production statistics for the project can be seen on the previous pagein Table 1. Additionally, information on the best and worst performing turbines can be seen in Table 2. For referencepurposes, the power curve for the SWT23 turbine is provided in Table 5.
Client has also specified the loss factors listed in Table 3 below. These were used to compute the net production statistics,which can be seen in Table 1 on the previous page, as well as in Figure 8 in section 4.
In addition to turbine locations, Client has provided 5 meteorological reference points, which are labeled on the maps insection 2. Wind speed and direction timeseries were extracted at these points, and an analysis is presented in section 3,which includes the overall mean wind speeds at each reference point, and wind and power roses showing the distributionof wind direction. Section 3 is meant to provide an easily readable overview of the wind resource over the area.
Curtailment (low temp, utility, etc) 100.0 %Wake from existing wind farms 100.0 %Electrical efficiency 96.0 %Wake effect 96.0 %Substation maintenance 99.0 %Icing and blade degradation 98.5 %Turbine performance 100.0 %Availability 94.0 %
Table 3: Loss factors
1.3 Deliverables
Supplementing this report, 3TIER will provide the following data files:
• Maps of the Yellowstone region with annual mean wind speed and capacity factor at 80m, in GeoTIFF format.
• 12x24 tables of mean wind speed and capacity factor (across all turbines), in CSV format.
• Detailed information for each turbine including location, elevation, wind speed and capacity factor, in CSV format.
• Details for each reference point, including location, elevation, and mean wind speed.
• Overall project statistics, in CSV format.
• Annual- and monthly-mean wind and power roses, computed for each reference point, in CSV and JPEG format.
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.3
IntroductionYellowstoneFor Client
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1.4 Methodology
3TIER used a numerical weather prediction model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), to analyze thewind resource across the Yellowstone region, and downscaled that dataset to 200m using our proprietary Time-VaryingMicroscale (TVM) model. WRF enables a very sophisticated but computationally intensive simulation of the dynamicaland physical processes of the atmosphere, and the TVM model complements it by using diagnostic techniques to analyzemicroscale processes without the prohibitive computational cost of running WRF at high resolution. Initial and lateralboundary conditions for WRF were extracted from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data, a multi-decadal coarse-resolutionobservational dataset sufficient to provide accurate representation of synoptic-scale processes. In this case, WRF was runon a 5km grid from January 1999 through December 2008, then downscaled to a 200m grid using TVM.
After the spatial dataset was generated, the wind resource was analyzed at each reference point and turbine location (asprovided by Client), and the results are presented in this report. Additionally, several project-wide statistics are computed(see Table 1 above).
Since no observational data were provided within the Yellowstone region, the data in this report represent raw modeloutput only.
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.4
MapsYellowstoneFor Client
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2 WIND RESOURCE AND CAPACITY FACTOR MAPS AT 80M. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
This section presents spatial maps of the average simulated wind speed and capacity factor at 80m across the Yellow-stone region. All maps within this section represent the raw model output of the 200m resolution domain. The red boxdenotes the valid study area.
110˚20'W
110˚20'W
110˚15'W
110˚15'W
110˚10'W
110˚10'W
110˚05'W
110˚05'W
110˚00'W
110˚00'W
109˚55'W
109˚55'W
44˚10'N 44˚10'N
44˚15'N 44˚15'N
44˚20'N 44˚20'N
44˚25'N 44˚25'N
R01
R02
R03
R04
R05
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.080m wind speed
m/s
TurbinesReference points
Figure 1: Mean wind speed at 80m.
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.5
MapsYellowstoneFor Client
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110˚20'W
110˚20'W
110˚15'W
110˚15'W
110˚10'W
110˚10'W
110˚05'W
110˚05'W
110˚00'W
110˚00'W
109˚55'W
109˚55'W
44˚10'N 44˚10'N
44˚15'N 44˚15'N
44˚20'N 44˚20'N
44˚25'N 44˚25'N
R01
R02
R03
R04
R05
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.080m capacity factor
%
TurbinesReference points
Figure 2: Mean capacity factor for the SWT23 turbine at 80m.
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.6
Reference Point AnalysisYellowstoneFor Client
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3 REFERENCE POINT ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The data presented in this section are derived from the 5 reference points provided by Client. In Table 4 below, locationinformation and mean wind speed are summarized for each reference point, and the following pages contain annual windand power roses for each reference point and monthly wind and power roses for the first reference point specified. Inaddition to the coordinates given in this table, reference point locations are labeled on the maps in section 2.
ID Latitude Longitude Elevation Hub height Mean wind speed(m) (m) (m
s )
R01 44.1812 -110.3082 2721 80 6.95
R02 44.4475 -109.9306 2223 80 6.33
R03 44.3790 -110.0725 3178 80 9.53
R04 44.3120 -109.9605 3345 80 9.79
R05 44.2027 -110.1900 2914 80 7.31
Table 4: Reference point information
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.7
Reference Point AnalysisYellowstoneFor Client
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3.1 Wind Roses
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 1
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 2
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 3
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 4
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 5
S 10 %
EW
N
Figure 3: Annual wind roses for all reference points
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.8
Reference Point AnalysisYellowstoneFor Client
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S 10 %
EW
NOctober
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NNovember
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NDecember
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NJuly
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NAugust
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NSeptember
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NApril
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NMay
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NJune
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NJanuary
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NFebruary
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NMarch
S 10 %
EW
N
Figure 4: Monthly wind roses for reference point R01
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.9
Reference Point AnalysisYellowstoneFor Client
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3.2 Power Roses (for the SWT23 turbine)
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 1
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 2
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 3
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 4
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NPoint 5
S 10 %
EW
N
Figure 5: Annual power roses for all reference points
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.10
Reference Point AnalysisYellowstoneFor Client
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S 10 %
EW
NOctober
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NNovember
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NDecember
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NJuly
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NAugust
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NSeptember
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NApril
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NMay
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NJune
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NJanuary
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NFebruary
S 10 %
EW
N
S 10 %
EW
NMarch
S 10 %
EW
N
Figure 6: Monthly power roses for reference point R01
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.11
12x24 TablesYellowstoneFor Client
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4 12 BY 24 TABLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
These tables contain the mean of each hour (0 through 23) from each month in the year. Each column, therefore, showsthat month’s mean diurnal cycle, and the annual mean diurnal cycle can be read down the rightmost column, which iscomposed of the overall means of each hour. The bottom row contains each month’s mean, and in the bottom right cellis the overall mean. These means are computed across all 59 turbine locations provided by Client, and do not include thereference points.
Hour
of D
ay (U
TC)
0123456789
1011121314151617181920212223
AvgJan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May
Jun
Jun
Jly
Jly
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Avg
Avg9.038.998.948.928.969.059.149.219.219.179.119.068.968.898.838.788.748.668.648.728.858.908.888.948.94
8.638.668.588.518.508.548.598.658.628.588.548.478.398.308.258.208.037.908.098.358.648.748.648.488.45
8.598.418.328.218.198.218.258.268.288.268.168.108.037.987.957.797.647.898.378.779.089.219.178.928.33
8.678.097.767.607.567.597.627.617.557.467.407.357.337.287.076.887.207.758.338.759.079.189.158.957.88
9.699.158.287.827.457.237.147.097.036.956.866.796.766.706.376.867.858.619.179.549.809.9810.019.968.05
9.739.258.147.527.146.896.836.826.816.786.716.686.656.426.217.057.978.649.199.569.809.929.939.887.94
8.067.476.455.915.505.305.305.365.415.415.365.365.395.294.785.546.587.337.878.298.548.598.538.346.50
7.797.096.345.905.645.665.785.875.945.965.925.905.905.895.445.366.377.197.748.108.328.358.268.086.62
8.157.487.026.606.386.346.406.436.476.486.416.356.326.316.215.946.357.207.888.338.648.748.718.547.07
8.488.248.037.877.797.797.807.817.837.817.727.647.597.527.497.407.277.658.258.759.099.219.168.928.05
8.638.578.488.458.508.538.578.608.608.588.548.518.478.458.458.468.438.318.458.658.828.878.768.658.56
8.718.638.598.598.648.718.808.878.888.838.748.718.698.678.648.658.678.608.538.578.668.698.708.788.69
8.688.337.917.657.517.487.517.547.557.527.457.407.377.307.137.247.597.988.388.708.949.038.998.877.92
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11Wind Speed
m/s
Figure 7: 12 month by 24 hour table of wind speed.
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.12
12x24 TablesYellowstoneFor Client
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Hour
of D
ay (U
TC)
0123456789
1011121314151617181920212223
AvgJan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May
Jun
Jun
Jly
Jly
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Avg
Avg42.341.941.641.541.942.442.943.443.342.942.442.041.340.840.440.139.839.239.540.641.842.442.142.041.6
38.938.938.037.437.437.738.238.738.538.237.937.537.036.336.035.734.333.635.737.840.040.840.038.537.6
39.537.436.535.635.335.235.535.535.535.134.233.833.333.233.232.131.534.038.041.043.244.244.142.336.6
38.934.031.129.829.630.030.430.329.929.228.828.528.328.026.124.827.732.336.840.042.343.243.041.432.7
47.743.735.931.728.827.126.426.125.825.424.624.023.723.220.424.933.139.143.546.448.449.850.249.934.2
47.943.934.228.925.723.623.323.223.123.022.622.422.220.319.826.934.239.443.746.648.549.749.749.233.0
32.627.819.415.613.212.112.112.412.812.812.612.612.912.29.414.821.527.131.334.536.837.436.835.221.1
30.924.818.615.714.214.214.815.415.816.015.815.815.915.812.713.019.926.130.633.735.535.834.933.421.6
34.428.424.421.420.120.120.420.721.021.020.520.420.220.319.517.621.328.133.536.839.139.639.437.926.1
37.735.733.932.531.932.031.931.931.931.630.930.330.029.429.228.427.630.835.639.642.443.543.141.333.9
38.437.937.337.037.437.738.138.338.238.037.537.236.836.836.937.136.735.837.439.140.841.340.338.938.0
40.039.338.938.939.339.940.541.141.240.940.239.739.439.138.938.839.038.538.238.739.539.940.040.239.6
39.136.132.430.529.529.329.529.729.729.528.928.628.427.926.827.830.533.737.039.641.542.342.040.933.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Capacity Factor
%
Figure 8: 12 month by 24 hour table of net capacity factor for the SWT23 turbine. These net values are derived fromthe gross values using the loss factors in Table 3.
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.13
Turbine InformationYellowstoneFor Client
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5 TURBINE INFORMATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.1 Individual Turbine Detail
All wind speed, capacity factor, and air density values in this table are the overall mean values for that turbine. Shearis computed between 30m and 80m. Each turbine is color-coded according to its gross capacity factor, so that thebest-performing turbines can be easily identified.
ID Latitude Longitude Elevation Wind Speed Gross Capacity Air Density Shear
(m) (ms ) (%) (
kgm3 )
T001 44.3439 -110.2021 2702 6.47 25.7 0.924 0.14
T002 44.2798 -110.2465 2742 6.77 28.5 0.921 0.15
T003 44.2715 -110.2465 2681 6.68 27.7 0.926 0.16
T004 44.2632 -110.2460 2698 6.70 27.9 0.925 0.16
T005 44.2543 -110.2454 2722 6.72 28.0 0.923 0.17
T006 44.2371 -110.2454 2606 6.53 26.5 0.933 0.19
T007 44.2288 -110.2454 2585 6.43 25.5 0.935 0.21
T008 44.2632 -110.2038 2858 7.09 31.5 0.910 0.15
T009 44.2549 -110.2038 2841 7.05 31.1 0.911 0.16
T010 44.2454 -110.2033 2804 6.99 30.6 0.915 0.17
T011 44.2366 -110.2022 2725 6.89 29.7 0.922 0.18
T012 44.2282 -110.2016 2661 6.73 28.4 0.928 0.21
T013 44.2194 -110.1977 2841 7.06 31.2 0.911 0.18
T014 44.2100 -110.1944 2946 7.29 33.2 0.902 0.18
T015 44.2033 -110.1928 2898 7.24 32.9 0.906 0.19
T016 44.1950 -110.1894 2993 7.42 34.4 0.897 0.18
T017 44.2194 -110.0564 3036 7.28 32.9 0.894 0.20
T018 44.2133 -110.0503 3135 7.37 33.5 0.885 0.18
T019 44.2072 -110.0442 3263 7.54 34.9 0.873 0.17
T020 44.2027 -110.0353 3121 7.12 31.1 0.886 0.19
T021 44.2000 -110.0192 3180 7.33 33.1 0.881 0.19
T022 44.1922 -110.0142 3189 7.25 32.2 0.880 0.19
T023 44.4256 -110.1340 3038 8.91 48.3 0.893 0.15
T024 44.4178 -110.1301 3071 8.79 47.2 0.890 0.15
T025 44.4112 -110.1251 2906 8.36 43.8 0.906 0.18
T026 44.4040 -110.1168 2989 8.35 43.5 0.898 0.19
T027 44.4012 -110.1068 2986 8.50 44.9 0.898 0.17
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.14
Turbine InformationYellowstoneFor Client
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ID Latitude Longitude Elevation Wind Speed Gross Capacity Air Density Shear
(m) (ms ) (%) (
kgm3 )
T028 44.3973 -110.0985 2882 7.96 40.1 0.908 0.23
T029 44.3918 -110.0902 2887 8.20 42.4 0.907 0.21
T030 44.3890 -110.0835 2953 8.43 44.4 0.901 0.22
T031 44.3835 -110.0758 3025 9.02 49.5 0.895 0.19
T032 44.3752 -110.0747 3175 9.28 51.4 0.881 0.15
T033 44.3663 -110.0730 3071 9.23 51.3 0.891 0.16
T034 44.3585 -110.0730 3133 9.25 51.3 0.885 0.15
T035 44.3497 -110.0730 3232 9.21 50.8 0.876 0.14
T036 44.3413 -110.0702 3242 9.11 49.9 0.875 0.14
T037 44.3347 -110.0664 3152 8.83 47.6 0.884 0.15
T038 44.3286 -110.0619 3127 8.44 44.1 0.886 0.16
T039 44.3247 -110.0542 2933 7.78 38.2 0.904 0.21
T040 44.3164 -110.0519 3028 7.95 39.7 0.895 0.20
T041 44.3064 -110.0530 3045 7.84 38.5 0.894 0.20
T042 44.2987 -110.0547 3164 8.16 41.3 0.883 0.16
T043 44.2898 -110.0553 3273 8.45 43.8 0.873 0.14
T044 44.2831 -110.0558 3154 7.98 39.6 0.883 0.16
T045 44.2759 -110.0597 3200 7.86 38.3 0.879 0.15
T046 44.2682 -110.0619 3011 7.34 33.6 0.896 0.17
T047 44.3230 -110.1046 3024 7.43 34.5 0.895 0.18
T048 44.3153 -110.1057 3016 7.38 34.0 0.896 0.17
T049 44.3075 -110.1074 3029 7.51 35.3 0.895 0.16
T050 44.3003 -110.1079 3123 7.66 36.5 0.886 0.15
T051 44.2931 -110.1101 2931 7.09 31.3 0.904 0.20
T052 44.3413 -109.9616 3265 9.32 51.7 0.872 0.17
T053 44.3336 -109.9610 3338 9.70 54.6 0.866 0.15
T054 44.3253 -109.9616 3354 9.72 54.7 0.864 0.14
T055 44.3169 -109.9605 3290 9.88 56.1 0.870 0.14
T056 44.3086 -109.9610 3344 9.78 55.2 0.866 0.15
T057 44.3020 -109.9594 3313 9.73 54.9 0.868 0.15
T058 44.2959 -109.9577 3297 9.46 52.7 0.870 0.15
T059 44.2859 -109.9560 3198 8.65 46.0 0.879 0.17
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.15
Turbine InformationYellowstoneFor Client
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5.2 Turbine Power Curve
Wind Speed Capacity Factor(m/s) (kW)
0.0 01.0 02.0 03.0 04.0 905.0 2296.0 4367.0 7258.0 11089.0 152310.0 189711.0 214812.0 225713.0 229014.0 229815.0 230016.0 230017.0 230018.0 230019.0 230020.0 230021.0 230022.0 230023.0 230024.0 230025.0 230026.0 027.0 028.0 029.0 030.0 0
Table 5: Power curve for the SWT23 turbine, with a reference density of 1.225 kgm3
c© 2010 3TIER, Inc.16