Initial risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) algae for commodity-scale cultivation

William J. Henley & Lucie Novoveská*, Oklahoma State University R. Wayne Litaker, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Clifford S. Duke, Ecological Society of America Hector D. Quemada, Donald Danforth Plant Science Center Richard T. Sayre, Los Alamos National Lab & New Mexico Consortium

* Present affiliation: Algae Systems, LLC http://www.sustainableguernsey.info/blog/wp-content/

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Development of GM Algae is Well Underway

“Knowledge of the effects of GMO microalgae is nonexistent.”*

Potential risks of GM algae (for biofuels & co-products) depends on: • probability of eventual escape • effects on ecosystem services • effects on public health • Bidirectional HGT b/w GM algae and other organisms

• … but would HGT recipients persist at high levels in nature? Algal biofuels LCA & TEA should include proactive RA & mitigation

•  Rare de novo industry in environmentally-aware era •  Be a model industry for real, pre-emptive environmental protection •  Don’t deny/dismiss environmental concerns w/o supporting data

= 100% (even for PBRs)

à likely in mass cultivation at ~1018 algal cells ha-1 (x ~3x107 ha = 4% lower 48) > # stars in universe!

*Menentrez, M. 2012. Environ. Sci. Technol. 46:7073−7085.

Henley et al. 2013. Algal Res. 2:66-77 (modified)

Direct effects

Indirect effects

Add disabling GM traits

Add HGT-inhib-iting traits?

Henley et al. 2013. Algal Res. 2:66-77.

Example RA problem formulation: enhanced lipid content • Will biochemical differences between GM and WT algae persist in

prolonged suboptimal, fluctuating natural conditions? [probably not] • Will enhanced lipid content confer a competitive advantage for

escaped GM algae? [highly unlikely] • To what extent does palatability, nutritional value and relative

abundance of GM algae (compared to native algae) affect pop. biol. & spp. comp. of local consumers? [no info]

• For relevance to governmental regulation: do any effects on grazers adversely impact higher trophic levels including shell- or finfish? [no info]

• Mesocosm experiments, long-term in situ monitoring essential [dedicated funding & industry-academic partnerships]

•  Most targeted GM algal traits probably = low but nonzero ecological risk à test experimentally and monitor in situ

•  Big picture: balance RA of GM algae with benefits of renewable energy and mitigation of GHG and eutrophication

Conclusions