injury in traffic – a grossly under- emphasized problem worldwide leonard evans president, science...

Injury in Traffic – a Grossly Under-emphasized Problem Worldwide

Leonard EvansPresident, Science Serving Society

President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine AssociationBloomfield Hills, Michigan, USA

Devoted to adding reason and knowledge to public policy

ScienceServingSociety.com

Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China

Friday 28 August 2015

Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China

Friday 28 August 2015

Injury in Traffic – a Grossly Under-

emphasized Problem Worldwide

Bow of Titanic – 3.8 km under Atlantic Ocean. Photographed 2 Sept. 2000 by Leonard Evans

Scene from 2000 Chinese movie

The Road Home, (director Zhang Yimou)

Summarizes what science has taught about traffic safety

www.ScienceServingSociety.com

Bow of Titanic – 3.8 km under Atlantic Ocean. Photographed 2 Sept. 2000 by Leonard Evans

1500 Fatalities

1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads

Harm from traffic - almost incomprehensible magnitude

Injures vastly outnumber fatalities

Victims mainly healthy young people

Key is knowledge gained from science

What can be done to reduce this enormous harm?

A solid edifice of knowledge exists

Scientific literature since 1930s has papers on traffic safety

Is too often ignored – with tragic results

Science shows that:

Overwhelmingly, public policy addressing driver behavior has the greatest effect on casualties

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100urban roads in

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60

U. of Adelaide data

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U. of Adelaide data

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Effects of speed

1. Risk of crashing increases with increasing travel speed

2. If crash occurs, risk of injury increases with increasing speed

3. If injury occurs, risk that it is fatal increases with travel speed

1% increase in travel speed increases the risk of a fatal crash by at least 4%

Internatioonal comparisons offer insights into best ways to reduce harm in traffic

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2013 value is 40%below 1972 maximum

(32,719 down from 54,589)

Advances in trauma care make major contribution


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This is 83.7% below The Netherlands’ all time high of 3,264 in 1972

The Netherlands had 546 traffic deaths in 2013

If US total had fallen by 83.7% from its high, US total in 2013 would be 8,875

(instead of 32,719 observed)

More than 20,000 additional Americans are killed annually because US fails to match decline in Netherlands (+ 10 other countries)

USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:

Vehicle factors are important


Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors



Roadway factors are important



Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors





Driver performance factors are importantctors




Driver performance factors are important, but less important than driver behavior factorsfactors

This study, in agreement with earlier research, implies that there are over 200,000 annual traffic deaths in China.

How can this number be reduced?

Two recomendations

Conclusion

1 Create data-collecting agency

USA data set FARS is good model

2 Create traffic-safety research organization

Goal - accuracy and completeness

Supported by government, but largely independent of government

Best model is SWOV in the Netherlands

Make solicited and unsolicited science-based recommendations

Evaluate safety programs (implementation and evaluation must be kept separate)

Goal – highest quality objective scientific research

40+ years of ongoing improvement Free, comprehensive, and simple on web

Concluding comments

Traffic causes enormous numbers of injuries and deaths

Traffic-safety science can sharply reduced these numbers

Reliable data

“Disinterested” quality analysis

This requires

injury in traffic – a grossly under- emphasized problem worldwide leonard evans president, science...

Documents

roadway factors usa

importantctors vehicle

basic scientific finding

importantusa disaster

countriesusa disaster

traffic safetyis

traffic deaths

risk of injury