innovation matters

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson

Dr. Bernard Meyerson – IBM Fellow, Vice President of Innovation, CHQ

Why Innovation Matters: Big

Data, Data Babies and the

Analytics in Between

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson

2007

Why Innovate?

“What is the most important capability required for growth?”

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Ability to manage increasing regulation costs

Ability to allocate capital

Ability to manage a global organization

Ability to allocate the best talent

Ability to innovate

Source: McKinsey survey of 9,345 global executives 07

McKinsey Global Survey 2010:

84% of executives say Innovation is extremely or very important to their companies’ growth strategy


Key Elements of Sustainable Innovation

A short list of Innovation Essentials


Essential #1; T-Shaped Innovators Requirement: Deep, Expert-Thinking, with Broad Complex-Communications Skills

Many disciplines (understanding & communications)

Many systems (understanding & communications)

Deep

in o

ne d

iscip

line

(a

na

lytic

thin

kin

g &

pro

ble

m s

olv

ing)

Deep

in o

ne s

yste

m

(an

aly

tic th

inkin

g &

pro

ble

m s

olv

ing)

Many team-oriented projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)

Broad across many

Deep in at least one

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012

A Call to Alms:-})

Talented techies deserve ‘rock star’ treatment: IBM BARRIE McKENNA

OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012, 5:53 PM EST

Last updated Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012, 5:55 PM EST

Canada and the United States need to get back to treating – and compensating – their leading

technology creators like “rock stars,” says IBM’s global head of innovation.

“An economy is only as good as its supply of talent,” explained Bernard Meyerson,

International Business Machine Corp.’s vice-president of innovation and relations with

universities. “Physical infrastructure is nice to have, but without good people, you get awful

results.”


1997: Copper

Interconnect Wiring

1998: Silicon-on-Insulator

1998: Microdrive 2002:

Millipede

2004: Blue Gene The fastest

supercomputer in the world

2006: 5-stage Carbon Nanotube Ring

Oscillator

2008: World’s First Petaflop

Supercomputer

1948: SSEC

1956: RAMAC

1944: Mark 1

1957: FORTRAN

1964: System/360

1971: Speech

Recognition

1967: Fractals

1970: Relational Database

1966: One-Device Memory Cell

1973: Winchester

Disk

1979: Thin Film Recording

Heads

1980: RISC

Nobel Prizes:

Scanning Tunneling

Microscope

High Temperature Superconductivity

1990: Chemically Amplified

Photoresists

1994: SIGe

1993: RS/6000 SP 1996,97: Deep Blue

1987: 1986:

Outcomes; The “AHA” Moments Extraordinary Innovators Create Innovations That Matter

2010: Watson


Valuing Continuous Innovation; Beyond The “AHA!” Moment

Disk Drives

–If IBM had not continued to innovate in this

field, today’s laptops would weigh

approximately 250,000 Tons

Never Undervalue Ongoing Innovation

x2


Essential #2: Innovators Need INFRASTRUCTURE Enabling Collaborative Innovation (Outreach Matters)

China

Watson Almaden

Austin

Tokyo Haifa

Zurich

India

IBM Research Lab

Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations

Pangoo

Brazil

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://rici.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/windowslivewritere0216ca84178-f657logokampus2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://rici.wordpress.com/2007/08/16/&usg=__O560nzPjXxBphw4mbuD8_B47TpU=&h=286&w=640&sz=47&hl=en&start=12&sig2=q498pUiTnm8_mF2iM7-o1Q&um=1&tbnid=GpAfbtB5_g4qiM:&tbnh=61&tbnw=137&prev=/images?q=kaust&hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1T4GGLG_enUS316US316&sa=N&um=1&ei=MbgBSvyOIN_flQfxlOTmCg

http://www.usyd.edu.au/index.html

http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/compsci/20080728/images/SSME_Top.jpg

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://image.volunteersolutions.org/images/cache/000/000/003/784/3784927.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.volunteersolutions.org/vccc/org/3459604-printer.html&h=475&w=1354&sz=38&tbnid=RBLFquVoe2YetM::&tbnh=53&tbnw=150&prev=/images?q=kaiser+permanente+logo&hl=en&usg=__5dev5HqFF1Xt8oKlBsmLmD94faE=&ei=5hgDSv_FIuqElAeE-93dBA&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=1&ct=image

http://cdn4.wn.com/o25/ar/i/5b/4f62d003832a20.jpg


Essential #3: Dynamics: Innovators Must Evolve

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Inter-disciplinary collaboration in the market and across the globe

Centrally Funded Joint Programs

Research in the

Marketplace

Collaborative

Innovation

Corporate Collaborative Work on Create business

2010s

Collaborative

funded

Technology

transfer

Team

Shared agenda

Effectiveness

client

problems advantage for clients

Industry-focused research

partnerships

Emerging markets

Global

Collaboration


The Extraordinary Trajectory;

A Quick Review of How We Got “Here”, And

Why Innovation Must Now Accelerate


Moore’s Law – Connecting Scaling and Economics

Number of devices integrated on a chip of fixed area doubles every 12-18 months


Scaling in the Past vs. Scaling Now

1.40

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.25

1.30

1.35

Rela

tive P

erf

orm

an

ce

1.20

1.05

1.10

1.15 Scaling In The Past…

Higher Capacitance

Higher Resistance

Reduced Stress

Scaling Now

Channel Scaling High-k / Metal Gate Body Controlled Devices Reduced Gate Height Advanced BEOL Dielectric

New Scaling Requirements; Massive Innovation


Materials Innovation

Elements Employed in Silicon Technology

90’s through 2005

Beyond 2006

Before 90’s

This has gotten unimaginably EXPENSIVE!!!


100

101

102

103

104

105

106

Total RD & E (Chip + Eq)

Semiconductor Revenues

B

Semiconduct

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Reven

ue/R

D&

E

Total RD & E (Chip + Eq)

Semiconductor Revenues

Year

D

###

Chip Making R&D Versus Revenues (Worldwide in $M) With Permission, VLSI inc.

ex

tra

po

late

d

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm

Co

sts

($M

)

Process development Process ramp-up

22nm

~$2.3B

Source: IBS Global System IC Service Management Report, April 2006.

Estimated cost to develop the 22-nm CMOS logic process

$1.1B

ex

tra

po

late

d

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm

Co

sts

($M

)


22nm

~$2.3B



$1.1B

ex

tra

po

late

d

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm

Co

sts

($M

)


22nm

~$2.3B



$1.1B

Reminder; The industry trend has been

for R&D Expenses to outpace revenues

2004-2020 Projected CAGR

Revenues ~ 6.5%

R&D ~ 12.2%

This was/is NOT sustainable

Fiscal reality drove our industry to consolidate around Innovation Networks.

The predicted consolidation continues virtually unabated.

2004 - 2010 CAGR

R&D

Expenses

12.2%

Revenue

Growth

6.5%

2004 - 2010 CAGR

R&D

Expenses

12.2%

Revenue

Growth

6.5%

Issue First Raised in 2004; Is There a Sustainable Business Model?

3002 NO

© 2010 IBM Corporation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson Collaborative Innovation

Information Technology in the “Post-Silicon” Era

The “Silicon Era” is rapidly(~10 years) coming to an end. – While silicon will be the semiconductor of choice for several decades to come,

devices themselves will play a minimal role in driving future IT performance.

– Deep integration of hardware, software, system, and network functionality, will

absorb the “slack” created by the absence of raw silicon performance gains.

– Viable “post-silicon” technology requires >1B simultaneously functional devices

The tremendous investments associated with the

innovations required to continue driving device density will

prompt ever greater consolidation in this industry.

Despite all the challenges cited here, Innovation in

Information Technology will drive ever more rapid

advances in its capabilities

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012

New Drivers of Progress in

Information Technology

Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012

Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012

A New Paradigm For Systems

Scale In

Memory

Switching

Storage

Processor

Collaborative Innovation 18

Brain

Cities

Water

HPC & Agile Computing

Energy

Applied Research +

Innovation Centre

IBM Canada Research and Development Centre

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation 19

The IBM Canada R&D Centre Mission

Announced April 10, 2012

Focus on Agile Computing and Smarter Infrastructure –Agile computing enabling Smarter;

• Healthcare • Water • Energy • Cities

High Performance Computing Infrastructure Partners –University of Toronto –Western University –Canadian Leadership Data Centre

Collaboration is foundational and key to success –Seven University partners –Ontario Centre of Excellence (OCE) to enable industry

participation –Federal and provincial government engagements – IBM Research and Lab support –Cross discipline and cross-university collaboration

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation

IBM Canada

Software Lab

IBM Canada

Others

Western

UofT

Waterloo

UofO

Queen’s

McMaster

R&D Centre

Small & Medium Enterprises

Collaboration at Work – The Southern Ontario Smart Computing Innovation Platform

HPC & Cloud

Infrastructure UOIT


Enabling Technologies; Advanced Microelectronics Research


University Partnership on Analytics Skills

Develop and implement a model of cooperation that:

a) Enhances education, training and research collaboration in the areas of Analytics between IBM

and Post-Secondary educational institutions in Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Canada region,

b) Increases the number of individuals with education, training, experience and certification in

Analytics throughout Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Canada region, and

c) Engages Nova Scotia’s post-secondary educational institutions as key partners in research and

development for the creation of essential skills and applications in Analytics.

Curriculum

Development

& Delivery

Research &

Development

Technology

Installation &

Support

Specific actions and investment to facilitate three pillars of partnership:

Led by Post-Secondary

institutions, building on

existing programs,

materials and case

studies

IBM donation of HW (SUR

Grant) and SW (Academic

Initiative) to develop a

provincial cloud to support

curriculum deployment

and skills development

Forward looking, building

on the critical mass of

skills, technology

infrastructure and

additional industrial /

government partners

Announced today @ 10:30am, EST


How Do We Focus IT Innovation

In This New Era?


The Grand Challenges

In 2008 We Asked The IBM Community To Identify

Global, Societal, Grand Challenges

Innovation Jam 2008-Crowd Sourcing the Future


Eliminating the millions of tons of

food thrown away annually in

the US and UK could lift more

than a billion people

out of hunger worldwide

Global Challenge: Food

Image Source: Sun

Collaborative Innovation

© IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson

Today there are

1 Billion cars on the road. That number will

double in 2020

Congested roadways

cost $78 Billion annually in the form of

4.2 Billion lost working hours and

2.9 billion gallons of wasted gas.

Global Challenge:

Transportation



Global Challenge: Healthcare

$475 Billion Estimated U.S. healthcare spending each year on administrative and clinical waste, fraud and abuse and other waste.1

1.5 Million

Errors in the way medications are prescribed, delivered and taken harm 1.5 million people in the U.S. every year.2



Our Thesis: These Problems Result in Large Part From

Our Inability to Utilize VAST AMOUNTS OF

INFORMATION Effectively

© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson 29

“Big” Data Is REALLY BIG

“Every two days now we create as

much information as we did from the

dawn of civilization up until 2003.”

~ Eric Schmidt, CEO Google


Ann Winbald,

Co-founder Hummer

Winbald Venture Capital

In its raw form, oil has little value. Once processed & refined, it helps power the world.

30

“Data is the New Oil”

Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012


To Understand and Effectively Utilize

Big Data We Need a New Suite of Tools:

Analytics


“Looks like you have all the data, what’s the holdup?”

Why Analytics?


-The Outcome of Innovation Jam 2008-

We Believe It Is The Responsibility of Those Who

Create and Deploy Such Advanced Information

Technology To Step Up and Create a “Smarter Planet”


The Concept of a Smarter Planet Is Solutions for Society

Dr. Bernard Meyerson

Smart Traffic

Systems

Smart Water

Management

Smart Energy

Grids Smart

Healthcare

Smart Food

Systems

Intelligent

Oil field

technologies

Smart

Regions

Smart

Weather

Smart

Countries

Smart Supply

Chains Smart Cities

Smart Retail


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Po

pu

latio

n (

millio

ns)

Urban Population Rural Population

Why Begin With Issues of a Smarter City? Consider Future Population Demographics


Ensuring a Future:

-Smarter Healthcare-


Files, TCP Sockets

Big Data & Predictive Analytics in Healthcare

Toronto Hospital for Sick Children

Sources

Correlating blood oxygenation with blood pressure to predict “Baby crashing”

Nosocomial Infection Prediction

Monitoring heart rate variability with other information to predict sepsis

Alarms up to 24 hours earlier than by experienced ICU Nurses

Predict Baby Crashing

~24 hrs

http://www.gettyimages.com/Search/Search.aspx?contractUrl=2&language=en-US&family=creative&p=hospital&lic=rf&assetType=image&src=quick


One Element of a Smarter City:

-Smarter Transportation-


The Smart Principle: Integrating real-world data with analytics allows one to be Proactive vs Reactive

Operational/

Transactional • Toll collection only -

disconnected

operational data

• Transaction data from

the management of

payments

• Little automated use

is made of real-time

traffic data

Bu

sin

es

s

Develo

pm

en

t

Operational/ Transactional

• More granular

charging, by location

• Analysis of traffic

patterns to manage

city congestion.

• Modeling traffic to

predict and manage

entire system

Insights

Road Usage

Optimization,

GHG emission

models

• Dynamic and

congestion based

pricing

• Route planning and

advice, shippers,

concrete haulers,

limo companies,

theatres, taxis etc

• City-wide, dynamic

traffic optimization

System wide control


Smarter Transportation: Predicting Traffic Flow

•10 minute-ahead volume forecast (blue) vs. actual

value (black) •10 minute-ahead speed forecast (blue) vs. actual

value (black).

Data Analytics in Action

Singaporeans now get there Faster, Cheaper, and Greener


Changing the Future:

-Smarter Public Safety-


Collaborative Innovation With Rio de Janeiro


The Intelligent Operations Center, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The Challenge; Evolve from Reactive to Proactive Operations

History; Flooding in 2010 resulted in 110 deaths.

Proactive emergency response is crucial


Sometimes Nature Hits VERY Close to Home


“Big Data’s” Impact on Public Safety: Example; Blue CRUSH in Memphis, TN & Richmond, VA

Blue CRUSH predictive analysis for officer deployment & risk management generated easy-to-read crime maps every four hours

Richmond, VA: Violent crime decreased in the first year by 32%, another 40% thereafter,

moving Richmond from #5 on the list of the most dangerous US cities to #99

Memphis Blue CRUSH Map


Big Data in Big Business

-”Impact” Takes on a Whole New Meaning-


Collaborative Innovation: Statoil & IBM

Operational process optimization and

equipment monitoring

Accelerated production and increased

reserves, in addition to standardization and

automation of work processes, OLF

estimated value of US$50 Billion over five

years (ref. Norwegian Oil Industry Association [OLF])

Environmental Factors



Cyber; The Next Battleground for Analytics

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/121012/panetta-us-cyber-security-threat-pre-911-moment


The New Realities of Innovation

The Innovators of tomorrow require a new mix of

skills to manage complex systems of systems

producing BIG DATA.

Data Analytics can extract unprecedented insights

from BIG DATA, and within a decade will become as

common a “tool” as the pocket calculator.

We, the Information Technology industry, and our

partners in its use, have a responsibility to enable

solutions for a Smarter Planet, with all the societal

benefits that entails.

innovation matters - bernie meyerson

Technology

ibm corporation

continuous innovation

s vicepresident of innovation

bernard meyerson ibm

materials innovation

vice president of innovation

ibms global head of