innovative solutions to curtailment€¦ · innovative solutions • considered over a dozen new...

Innovative Solutions to Curtailment Lessons from the Aloha State

www.sepapower.org

Purpose of the Presentation

• Outline how the Hawaiian Electric Companies are changing practices to better manage and mitigate curtailment issues for large wind and solar projects

•  Part One – Enhanced Modeling Tools •  Part Two – New Concept for PPA Contracts

• Speakers •  Dora Nakafuji – Director, Renewable Energy Planning,

Hawaiian Electric •  Greg Shimokawa – Energy Contract Manager, Hawaiian

Electric •  John Sterling – Senior Director, Research & Advisory

Services, SEPA

2

3

Contrac(ngfortheFuture:Innova(veSolu(onstoCurtailment

HawaiianElectricCompaniesGregShimokawaDoraNakafuji

September14,2016

SolarPowerInternaEonalLasVegas,NV

4

There’sNoPlaceLikeHawai‘i

5

There’sNoPlaceLikeHawai‘i

6

OpportuniEesandChallenges

"   AbundanceofRenewableEnergyResources

"   100%RPSmandate"   Islandgridspresentuniquechallenges–  IncreasedCurtailmentRisks–  HawaiianElectricCompaniesserviceterritoriesencompassfiveindependentsystems

– Needtomanage/reducecustomerbills

7

Hawai‘i’sNewRenewableEnergyGoals

OnJune8,2015Gov.DavidIgesignedAct97intolaw,givingHawaiʻithemostambiUouscleanenergygoalsinthecountry–requiring100percentofelectricitysalestocomefromrenewableresourcesby2045.In2015,theHawaiianElectriccompaniesachieved23.2percentnetelectricitysalesfromrenewableenergyresources

8

RisingwiththeSun8

IncreasedDistributedGeneraUon(DG)resourcesleadtoincreasedcurtailmentriskforuUlity-scalerenewableresourcesMoreMWofroo\opDGthanourlargestpowerplant

9

ReducingOurDependencyonOil9

Reducingdependencyonoilandachievinga100percentRPSwillrequire:"   adiversepor^olioofrenewable

energyresources"   effecUveuseoftechnologies

suchasenergystorage"   efficientenergyuse"   resilient,modernpowergrids

10

StateoftheState:CurtailmentRiskinHawai‘i

"   IncreasingpenetraUonofdistributedPVhascreatedasurplusofdayUme,non-dispatchablegeneraUononalloftheHawaiianIslands

"   ThisgeneraUon,whichisnotdirectlycontrolledbytheuUliUes,iseffecUvely“musttake”;thatis,theuUliUesmustmanageotherconvenUonalandrenewablegeneraUonresourcesaroundtheoutputofthesesystems

"   EachislandmustbalanceloadandgeneraUononitsown–nointerconnectedsystembetweentheislandsexists

"   BecauseofdistributedsolarpenetraUon,someislandsareprojecUngcurtailmentashighas20%to50%inthenearfuture

11

ChangingHowWeThink"   100%RPSrequiresamindsetshi\

–  Over-procurementofintermihentgeneraUon–  “Must-take”resourcesmayseeincreasedcurtailment

"   NewcontracUngapproachescanaddresstheseissues–  Resourceassessment–  Facilityavailability–  OperaUonalflexibility–  RiskallocaUon

"   Needtomovebeyondthemindsetandlanguageof“curtailment”infavorof“dispatchability”

"   NeedforrobustmodelingtosupportnewcontracUngstructures

12

IncreasedForecasEng/DataRequirements

"   MorerobustforecasUnganddata-drivenanalysisrequiredtosupportthesenewcontracUngmechanisms– SWIFTForecasUngandVisualizaUontools– DREAMSforSystemOperators– SEAMSforSHINEStechnologies

12

13

WhereDoWeWanttoBE?

"   DiversifiedServices"   EngagedCustomerswithValueAdded

"   SaUsfiedRegulators"   SustainableCostsandMargins

14

OurCurrentCondiEon

What’sOurNewState?

Typical Hawaii load profile – Evening Peaking “Bessie the Elephant”

“MeetNessie”

15

Reality

16OrchestraEngReliableFoundaEonforAlternaEves

ReliableFoundaUonEnablingCustomer“Plug-n-Play”

Opportunityfordiverseresources-100%RPS

17Por]olioBasedApproachforRenewableIntegraEon

"   Decision-basedanalysistoassessimpacts

"   Re-training&re-toolingtheworkforce

"   Fosteringastrongworkforcepipeline

Modeling/ValidaUon

WorkforceDev.&Interns

FeederMonitoring

ResourceForecast&Monitoring

NewEnergyMgtTech

18

SWIFTBird’sEyeView–SituaEonalAwareness

CloudyDayPa_ern ClearDayPa_ern

NotoverylowproducUon<30%High,steady–100%

18 Source:HawaiianElectric&AWSTruepower

19

DrySeason WetSeason

AnnualAverageGHI

Canresultin30%energyproducUondifferencebetweenwetanddryseason

ResourceLocaUons

LocaEon&SeasonsMa_er–EveninHawaii

20

SustainRe-Tooling&DevelopmentofWorkforce

20

Non-tradi*onalu*lityfieldequipment

21“Seeing&ValidaEng”DGRampImpacts

YesterdayisnotagoodpredictorofTodayanymore

40-50MWJumpinLoadCorrespondingdropinPV

21

SWIFTForecast

Source:HawaiianElectric&AWSTruepower

22See&TrendingDistribuEonHotspots

CircuitTrend

SolarResource

Figure2.5.ClusterBFeederMap.

G

G

Existing Generators

Additional Generators

DGIntegratedModelOnlineLVM

Source:HawaiianElectric

%Pen= 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑀𝑊/𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝐷𝑎𝑦𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 

23

BringingitAllTogether:EMSIntegraEonDistributedResourceEnergyAnalysis&Management(DREAMS)forGridOpera(ons

23

SWIFT

Source:HECO

24

PoleS

B

SB

SB

SEAMSforSHINES–UElity&CustomerInterface

“SEAMS”Architecture

TradiUonalUUlity&SCADA

CustomerSide

25SystemVisibilityThroughEdge-of-NetworkTechnologies

RenewableResource

Monitoring&ForecasUng(SWIFT)

REDataAnalyUcs&VisualizaUon

RE&DGInfrastructureModeling

OpsIntegraUon&TransformaUonalTechnologies

TechnicalOutreachCollaboraUons&

WorkforceDevelopment

LVM

STEMDistributedStorage

SWIFTForecasUng

SODAR

Analysistools&models

Real-Umecustomerdata&devices

Event

GridcoDGcontrol&monitoring

25

26

PartnershipwithSEPA/Sco_Madden

"   CollaboraUontoworkonexploringanewdispatchablerenewablegeneraUonPPAmodel– AwarenessofHawai‘i’suniquechallenges

− A“postcardfromthefuture”– SEPA’sreputaUonasanindependent“trustedpla^ormforeducaUon,researchandcollaboraUon”

– ScohMadden’senergyindustryexperience– ConnecUonswithadiversegroupofindustrystakeholders

What new types of contracting can be pursued to better manage and balance the risk that curtailment will continue to present to Hawai’i?

Problem Statement

27

www.sepapower.org

Project Overview

• SEPA and ScottMadden brought in to help identify innovative solutions

• Considered over a dozen new procurement and contracting models that could help address curtailment risk

• Deep dived on three specific approaches: •  Capacity and Energy PPAs •  Time-of-Day Pricing •  Dispatchable Renewable Generation (preferred

approach)

28

www.sepapower.org

Project Overview: Quantitative Review

•  Assumed a 10 MW solar installation with an LCOE of $100/MWh as a baseline project

• Considered risk from multiple vantage points (both IPP and customers) via quantitative metrics

•  Project NPV •  Debt Service Coverage Ratio •  Effective PPA Price ($/MWh delivered)

• Reviewed two scenarios for how projects may be priced •  No anticipated curtailment •  20% anticipated curtailment

• Reviewed four scenarios for how actual curtailment impacts economics

•  0% / 10% / 20% / 30% actual curtailment

29

www.sepapower.org

Impact of New Structures on Project NPV

30

($2.0)

($1.5)

($1.0)

($0.5)

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

25%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment

25%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment



ToD-South-FacingSolar

DispatchableRenewableGeneraUon

ProjectN

PV($

M)

ProjectNPV@Risk

NoActualCurtailment 30%ActualCurtailment

CurrentState-NoCurtailmentRisk CurrentState-30%CurtailmentRisk

AllmodelsconsideredreducedthedownsideriskfordevelopersonprojectNPV

www.sepapower.org

Impact of New Structures on DSCR*

31

AllmodelsconsideredreducedthedownsideriskfordevelopersonprojectDSCR

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80







DSCR

DebtServiceCoverageRaEo@Risk



*DebtServiceCoverageRaUo(DSCR)representsthelikelihoodthataproject’sfuturerevenuestreamscancoveritsdebtobligaUons;frequentlyusedbylenderstosetrateswhenfinancingaproject

www.sepapower.org

Impact of New Structures on Effective $/MWh for Delivered Energy*

32

AllmodelsconsideredreducedtheEffecEve$/MWhforcustomersinhighcurtailmentsituaEons

$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160







NetEffe

cEve$/M

Wh

EffecEve$/MWhforDeliveredEnergy



*EffecEve$/MWh=Theall-inpricethatcustomerspayforenergydelivered,a\erconsideraUonsforfixedandvariablecosts,andpaymentsforundeliveredenergy

33

DispatchableRenewableGeneraEonModel:KeyConcepts

Intent:Tomaximizevaluefromfuturevariablegenera*onresourcesbyincreasingtheopera*onalflexibilitynecessarytoop*mizedispatchoftheCompanysystem."   Companyrighttofulldispatchability"   MoveawayfromreversechronologicalseniorityrestricUons

"   Benefitfromallavailablegridservices

34

QuesEons/Comments??

Mahalo

Dora Nakafuji, PhD [email protected] Director of Renewable Energy Planning Grid Technologies Hawaiian Electric Company

For more information please contact:

34

Greg Shimokawa [email protected] Energy Contract Manager Renewable Acquisition Hawaiian Electric Company

innovative solutions to curtailment€¦ · innovative solutions • considered over a dozen new...

Documents