insights 2015 - on the economic, business, & political climate
TRANSCRIPT
On the Economic, Business & Political Climate
Roger Tutterow, Ph.D.
#WBInsights15
Question #1:Halfway into the 7th year of the recovery – has “normal” finally arrived?
#WBInsights15
GDP Trend(trailing 4 quarters)
Jan-
96Ju
n-96
Nov-
96Ap
r-97
Sep-
97Fe
b-98
Jul-9
8De
c-98
May
-99
Oct
-99
Mar
-00
Aug-
00Ja
n-01
Jun-
01No
v-01
Apr-0
2Se
p-02
Feb-
03Ju
l-03
Dec-
03M
ay-0
4O
ct-0
4M
ar-0
5Au
g-05
Jan-
06Ju
n-06
Nov-
06Ap
r-07
Sep-
07Fe
b-08
Jul-0
8De
c-08
May
-09
Oct
-09
Mar
-10
Aug-
10Ja
n-11
Jun-
11No
v-11
Apr-1
2Se
p-12
Feb-
13Ju
l-13
Dec-
13M
ay-1
4O
ct-1
4M
ar-1
5-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
#WBInsights15
GDP vs. Final Sales1Q
-07
2Q-0
73Q
-07
4Q-0
71Q
-08
2Q-0
83Q
-08
4Q-0
81Q
-09
2Q-0
93Q
-09
4Q-0
91Q
-10
2Q-1
03Q
-10
4Q-1
01Q
-11
2Q-1
13Q
-11
4Q-1
11Q
-12
2Q-1
23Q
-12
4Q-1
21Q
-13
2Q-1
33Q
-13
4Q-1
31Q
-14
2Q-1
43Q
-14
4Q-1
41Q
-15
2Q-1
53Q
-15-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
GDP Final Sales
#WBInsights15
Contribution to GDP GrowthGDP = Consumption Gross
InvestmentNet Exports Government
2014: Q3 4.3 2.34 1.22 0.39 0.332014: Q4 2.1 2.86 0.36 -0.89 -0.262015: Q1 0.6 1.19 1.39 -1.92 -0.012015: Q2 3.9 2.42 0.85 0.18 0.462015: Q3 1.5 2.19 -0.90 -0.03 0.30
Gross Investment = Nonresidential Residential Inventory
2014: Q3 1.22 1.12 0.11 -0.012014: Q4 0.36 0.09 0.31 -0.032015: Q1 1.39 0.20 0.32 0.872015: Q2 0.85 0.53 0.30 0.022015: Q3 -0.90 0.27 0.20 -1.44
#WBInsights15
ISM’s “PMI”
Jan-00
Jul-00Jan
-01Jul-0
1Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4Jan
-15Jul-1
525
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
#WBInsights15
Foreign Exchange: Trading Partners
Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02Apr-0
3
Sep-03
Feb-04
Jul-04
Dec-04
May-05
Oct-05
Mar-06
Aug-06Jan
-07Jun-07
Nov-07Apr-0
8
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11Jan
-12Jun-12
Nov-12Apr-1
3
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
May-15
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
#WBInsights15
Consumer SentimentJa
n-98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5556065707580859095
100105110115
#WBInsights15
Retail Sales:
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
RS Total RS ex-auto
#WBInsights15
Car & Truck Sales(SAAR, in millions)
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
154
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Auto Light Truck
#WBInsights15
Leading Economic Indicators(source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months)
Jul-0
4O
ct-0
4De
c-04
Feb-
05Ap
r-05
Jun-
05Au
g-05
Oct
-05
Dec-
05Fe
b-06
Apr-
06Ju
n-06
Aug-
06O
ct-0
6De
c-06
Feb-
07Ap
r-07
Jun-
07Au
g-07
Oct
-07
Dec-
07Fe
b-08
Apr-
08Ju
n-08
Aug-
08O
ct-0
8De
c-08
Feb-
09Ap
r-09
Jun-
09Au
g-09
Oct
-09
Dec-
09Fe
b-10
Apr-
10Ju
n-10
Aug-
10O
ct-1
0De
c-10
Feb-
11Ap
r-11
Jun-
11Au
g-11
Oct
-11
Dec-
11Fe
b-12
Apr-
12Ju
n-12
Aug-
12O
ct-1
2De
c-12
Feb-
13Ap
r-13
Jun-
13Au
g-13
Oct
-13
Dec-
13Fe
b-14
Apr-
14Ju
n-14
Aug-
14O
ct-1
4De
c-14
Feb-
15Ap
r-15
Jun-
15Au
g-15
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
#WBInsights15
Question #2:If the economy is truly back to normal, why is job growth feel so timid?
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Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls)
Jan-00
Jul-00Jan
-01Jul-0
1Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4Jan
-15-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
#WBInsights15
State Employment (Jobs Lost)
Nort
h D
akot
a
Alas
ka
Dist
rict o
f Col
Sout
h Da
kota
Texa
s
Nebr
aska
Wes
t Virg
inia
New
Yor
k
Loui
siana
Mas
sach
usett
s
Iow
a
Okla
hom
a
New
Ham
pshi
re
Verm
ont
Penn
sylv
ania
Mon
tana
Mai
ne
Kans
as
Arka
nsas
Virg
inia
Wyo
min
g
Min
neso
ta
Miss
ouri
Mar
ylan
d
New
Mex
ico
Colo
rado
Was
hing
ton
Wisc
onsin
New
Jers
ey
Kent
ucky
Rhod
e Isl
and
Miss
issip
pi
Conn
ectic
ut
Illin
ois
Haw
aii
Indi
ana
Utah
Dela
war
e
Tenn
esse
e
Alab
ama
Ohio
Nort
h Ca
rolin
a
Sout
h Ca
rolin
a
Geor
gia
Calif
orni
a
Oreg
on
Idah
o
Mich
igan
Flor
ida
Arizo
na
Neva
da
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
#WBInsights15
State Employment (Net Change)No
rth
Dako
ta
Texa
s
Dist
rict o
f Col
Utah
Alas
ka
Colo
rado
Was
hing
ton
New
Yor
k
Mas
sach
usett
s
Sout
h Da
kota
Okla
hom
a
Nebr
aska
Calif
orni
a
Loui
siana
Iow
a
Mon
tana
Tenn
esse
e
Min
neso
ta
Idah
o
Sout
h Ca
rolin
a
Kent
ucky
Verm
ont
Geor
gia
Mar
ylan
d
Kans
as
Oreg
on
Nort
h Ca
rolin
a
Indi
ana
Wyo
min
g
Flor
ida
Haw
aii
Dela
war
e
Wes
t Virg
inia
Virg
inia
Penn
sylv
ania
New
Ham
pshi
re
Arka
nsas
Mich
igan
Wisc
onsin
Ohio
Conn
ectic
ut
Rhod
e Is
land
Illin
ois
Miss
ouri
New
Jers
ey
New
Mex
ico
Arizo
na
Miss
issip
pi
Mai
ne
Alab
ama
Neva
da
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
#WBInsights15
US Employment Shift by Sector
Tota
l
Min
ing
Cons
t
Man
uf
T T
& U
til
Info Fin
Prof
& B
iz S
er
Educ
& H
C
Leis
& H
osp
Oth
er S
erv
Gov
t
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Loss Recover
#WBInsights15
Change in Employment: GA & ATL
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
USGAATL
#WBInsights15
Job Growth by Sector(July 2014 to July 2015)
Tota
l
Cons
truc
tion
Man
ufac
turi
ng
Trad
e, T
ran
& U
til
Info
rmati
on
Fina
ncia
l
Prof
& B
iz S
ervi
ce
Educ
& H
ealt
h Ca
re
Leis
ure
& H
ospi
talit
y
Oth
er S
ervi
ves
Gov
ernm
ent
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
US GA
ATL
#WBInsights15
Employment Change: GA Cities
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0.0846053659807257
0.0198675496688745
0.0758293838862558
0.103887458950919
0.0634398496240602
0.0277078085642317
0.0469684030742954
0.0111111111111111
0.134180790960452
0.0256410256410258
0.0570824524312898
0.0341207349081364
0.111776447105788
0.0556621880998081
0.00862068965517245
Recession
Reco
very
#WBInsights15
Employment: Georgia
GEO
RGIA
Alba
ny
Athe
ns
Atla
nta
Augu
sta
Brun
swic
k
Colu
mbu
s
Dal
ton
Gai
nesv
ille
Hin
esvi
lle
Mac
on
Rom
e
Sava
nnah
Vald
osta
War
ner R
obin
s-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Net L12M
#WBInsights15
Best Since 2007
Nash
ville
Lafe
yette
Rale
igh
New
Orle
ans
Bato
n Ro
uge
Char
lesti
on
Nort
hern
Virg
inia
Durh
am/C
H
Char
lotte
Sava
nnah
Mia
mi
Orla
ndo
Knox
ville
Lexi
ngto
n
Augu
sta
Loui
svill
e
Gree
nvill
e
Rich
mon
d
Jack
sonv
ille
Ashe
ville
Atla
nta
Colu
mbi
a
Hunt
svill
e
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%
#WBInsights15
Question #3:Oil prices have pulled back again. Okay, gas is cheaper, but is it good or bad for growth?
. . . and, are the inflation worries on or off the table?
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Prices: Still talk of Deflation/Inflation?
• CPI up by 0.2% in October after having falling by 0.2% and 0.1% in September and August.
• Core CPI up 0.2% in October after having been up by 0.2% and 0.1% in September and August.
• Overall CPI up 0.2% unchanged over last 12 months. Core up 1.9% over same period.
• Energy component was up by 0.3% last month and down by 17.1% over the last 12 months
#WBInsights15
Core CPI & Core PCE(% change, L12M)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Core CPICore PCE
#WBInsights15
Crude Oil
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
#WBInsights15
Who Gets Hurt By Higher Energy Prices?
Positive
Sm all N egative
Avg N egative
Large N egative
#WBInsights15
Question #4:"Operation Twist" finished at the end of 2012. So now, the question shifts to exit strategy?. . . “Taper” done, when rate hikes?. . . and what about financial institutions balance sheets?. . . and are we still “deleveraging”?
#WBInsights15
Federal Funds RateShort Rates on Hold to early
2016?
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Jan-8
0
Jan-8
2
Jan-8
4
Jan-8
6
Jan-8
8
Jan-9
0
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
8
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
8
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
4
#WBInsights15
10-Year Treasury Bonds: When Up?
Jan-00
Jul-00Jan
-01Jul-0
1Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4Jan
-15Jul-1
50%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
#WBInsights15
“Five Little PIIGS”
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Mar-15 Jun-15
#WBInsights15
MBA Mortgage Activity: Purchase & Refinance
1997
- Q
1
1997
- Q
2
1997
- Q
3
1997
- Q
4
1998
- Q
1
1998
- Q
2
1998
- Q
3
1998
- Q
4
1999
- Q
1
1999
- Q
2
1999
- Q
3
1999
- Q
4
2000
- Q
1
2000
- Q
2
2000
- Q
3
2000
- Q
4
2001
- Q
1
2001
- Q
2
2001
- Q
3
2001
- Q
4
2002
- Q
1
2002
- Q
2
2002
- Q
3
2002
- Q
4
2003
- Q
1
2003
- Q
2
2003
- Q
3
2003
- Q
4
2004
- Q
1
2004
- Q
2
2004
- Q
3
2004
- Q
4
2005
- Q
1
2005
- Q
2
2005
- Q
3
2005
- Q
4
2006
- Q
1
2006
- Q
2
2006
- Q
3
2006
- Q
4
2007
- Q
1
2007
- Q
2
2007
- Q
3
2007
- Q
4
2008
- Q
1
2008
- Q
2
2008
- Q
3
2008
- Q
4
2009
- Q
1
2009
- Q
2
2009
- Q
3
2009
- Q
4
2010
- Q
1
2010
- Q
2
2010
- Q
3
2010
- Q
4
2011
- Q
1
2011
- Q
2
2011
- Q
3
2011
- Q
4
2012
- Q
1
2012
- Q
2
2012
- Q
3
2012
- Q
4
2013
- Q
1
2013
- Q
2
2013
- Q
3
2013
- Q
4
2014
- Q
1
2014
- Q
2
2014
- Q
3
2014
- Q
4
2015
- Q
1
2015
- Q
20
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
PurchRefi
#WBInsights15
Bank Credit Loosening?
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Large & Med Small
#WBInsights15
C&I Demand Stronger?
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Large & Med Small
#WBInsights15
Loan Spread over COF
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Large & Med Small
#WBInsights15
Loan Delinquency
Jan-91Oct-
91Jul-9
2Apr-9
3Jan
-94Oct-
94Jul-9
5Apr-9
6Jan
-97Oct-
97Jul-9
8Apr-9
9Jan
-00Oct-
00Jul-0
1Apr-0
2Jan
-03Oct-
03Jul-0
4Apr-0
5Jan
-06Oct-
06Jul-0
7Apr-0
8Jan
-09Oct-
09Jul-1
0Apr-1
1Jan
-12Oct-
12Jul-1
30%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Credit CardConsumerBusiness
#WBInsights15
Charge Off Rates
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Biz CRE
#WBInsights15
Question #5:Historically, residential and commercial real estate have been important parts of the economy, is the ongoing recovery sustainable??
#WBInsights15
Construction Spending: Source
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Public Private
#WBInsights15
Construction Spending: By Sector
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Residential Non-Residential
#WBInsights15
Non-Residential Construction
L
odgi
ng
O
ffice
C
omm
ercia
l
H
ealth
care
E
duca
tiona
l
R
elig
ious
P
ublic
safe
ty
A
mus
e &
Rec
T
rans
port
ation
C
omm
unica
tion
P
ower
H
ighw
ay a
nd st
reet
S
ewag
e &
was
te d
isp
W
ater
supp
ly
C
onse
rv a
nd d
evel
op
M
anuf
actu
ring
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%2011-122012-132013-142014-15
#WBInsights15
US Housing Starts: SF and Total(12 month moving average)
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
TotalSF
#WBInsights15
US Housing Starts: Multi-family(12 month moving average)
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
50
75
150
225
300
375
450
#WBInsights15
ATL Housing Starts: SF and Total(12 month moving average)
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
#WBInsights15
ATL Housing Starts: Multi-family(12 month moving average)
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
#WBInsights15
The Demographics: Boom & Bust
#WBInsights15
Demographics: Living Longer
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201010
12
14
16
18
20
22
#WBInsights15
Home Prices & CPI
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14Jan-15
May-1550
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
CPI Case-Shiller
#WBInsights15
CS/S&P Home Price Index(FROM PEAK TO JUNE 2015)
Dalla
s
Denv
er
Bost
on
Char
lott
e
Clev
elan
d
New
Yor
k
Nati
onal
-US
Port
land
Seatt
le
Was
hing
ton
Com
posit
e-20
Com
posit
e-10
Min
neap
olis
Chic
ago
Atla
nta
Los A
ngel
es
San
Dieg
o
San
Fran
cisc
o
Detr
oit
Tam
pa
Mia
mi
Phoe
nix
Las V
egas
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Drop Since peak
#WBInsights15
Home Prices: SE Region19
98 Q
1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MO MS NC
SC TN TX VA
#WBInsights15
GA MSA Home PricesAl
bany
Athe
ns
Atla
nta
Augu
sta
Brun
swic
k
Colu
mbu
s
Dal
ton
Gai
nesv
ille
Hin
esvi
lle
Mac
on
Rom
e
Sava
nnah
Vald
osta
War
ner R
obin
s
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%Bust Recover
Net
#WBInsights15
Case Shiller: Atlanta & US-20 Ja
n-01
May
-01
Sep-
01Ja
n-02
May
-02
Sep-
02Ja
n-03
May
-03
Sep-
03Ja
n-04
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
ATL CS-20
US
#WBInsights15
Household RE Equity(in $ Billions)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
#WBInsights15
Question #6:“Fiscal cliffs” have faded (or not)? If so, where do we head politically? What will “shared governance” look like? Is another DC showdown ahead?
#WBInsights15
Currents Issues in Fiscal Affairs
• Federal:– Government default avoided in 2011 & 2013 – what about 2015?– Out of Play: Affordable Care Act– In Play: Keystone, Dodd-Frank, EPA, NLRB, SCOTUS. – Student debt?
• States:– Bond ratings preserved during downturn– Tax Reform Initiatives in other States– Recent gains in manufacturing facilities due to “reshoring”– SE states domination biz location ranking, but not exclusive
• Local:– RE valuation and revenues rising– Fiscal distress moderating