[in]sights for competitive regions: demography - welcome - regional australia … · 2016-04-06 ·...

[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015 1

[In]Sights for Competitive

Regions: Demography

[In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index is the lens regions need to make the most of their advantages.

This report provides an analysis of Demography in [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness

index. Other analysis reports, a detailed user guide and the online interactive map including 624

regional competitiveness profiles are available at www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight


Making the Most of Our Regional Population

The characteristics of regional populations shape the competitiveness and economic opportunities

for regional Australia.

Many regional areas have the population dynamics to be competitive and successful both now and

into the future.

Regional Cities are vital to the future of Australia. With over 4.3 million residents collectively, they

enjoy the advantages of population size.

The potential of Australia’s Regional Cities deserves greater recognition in policy thinking and the

discussion of national futures. Regional Cities – with larger populations on their size – have

competitive advantages in terms of larger markets for goods and services as well as

concentrations of skilled labour to support economic development.

The demographic profile of much of regional Australia presents its share of challenges. Whilst

south-eastern Australia has population mass and density on its side, it needs more working-age

people to offset the effect of an increasingly greater proportion of people past working age.

Less densely populated and more remote regions, in particular, face greater challenges to

maintain and develop their economic infrastructure given the resources available from within their

local populations.

Relative population declinei, as evident in many regional areas, presents challenges for the

development of competitive and resilient economies. Planning a postivite economic future is all the

more difficult for regions facing the drift of younger workers towards the larger centres.

On a positive note, this report also highlights the demographic opportunity in northern Australia.

Three aspects of northern Australia’s population underpin its demographic advantage: its Regional

Cities; recent growth in the population; and its relatively young population profile.


Introduction

This report provides an overview of the Demography theme in [In]Sight: Australia’s regional

competitiveness index. The importance of people and population to a region’s competitiveness

necessitates the inclusion of the Demography theme within this release of [In]Sight. Measures in the

demography theme reflect the size, change, composition and distribution of each local government

area (LGA) and region’s population.

Demography is something that each region must work with to succeed. Creating change in the

profile of a population is relatively difficult to achieve through public policy. Although some

actions – such as a targeted migration policy may be beneficial - longer term, broader trends

(lower birthrates, increased life expectancy and an ageing population) tend to shape a region’s

demographic profile and therefore its competitive position.

Each LGA is grouped into a regional type - Regional Cities, Connected Lifestyle Regions, Industry

and Service Hubs and Heartland Regions. This paper reviews the broad demographic patterns

evident across these types, as well as at State and Territory level (see figure 2).ii

This report is one of a series of 10 examining the economic competitiveness themes contained within

[In]Sight.

Measuring Demography in [In]Sight

Demography is measured using six indicators in [In]Sight:

Population size (sourced from ABS Regional Population growth 2012-13 data): The number

of people who live in an area. Larger populations offer bigger markets for goods and

services as well as more skilled workers. Larger populations lead to a higher ranking.

Population growth (sourced from ABS Regional Population growth 2012-13 data): The rate

of change in the size of population over the last year. Growing populations expand local

and regional economies. Higher population growth leads to a higher ranking.

Population density (sourced from ABS data): The number of people per square kilometre.

Density concentrates market demand and enables people to better connect with each other

to drive innovation and change. Higher density leads to a higher ranking.

Population turnover (sourced from ABS data): The rate at which people are moving to and

from a region. Lower turnover indicates stability in a regional population, supporting

stronger social capital and institutions. Lower turnover leads to a higher ranking.

Senior dependency (sourced from National Regional Profile 2012 and ABS data): The

number of people aged over 64 years compared to the working age population (15-64

years). Populations with higher proportions of older people may require a greater focus on

service delivery than economic development. Regions with a lower senior dependency ratio

are therefore ranked higher.


Youth dependency (sourced from National Regional Profile 2012 and ABS data): The

number of people under 15 years compared to the working age population (15-64 years).

Younger populations tend also to require a greater level of services. Regions with a lower

youth dependency ratio are ranked higher.

Further information on this theme and the measurement and construction of the index can be

accessed in the [In]Sight 2014 User Guide.

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight-userguide-pdf/


Demography and Competitiveness in Regional Australia

Within regional Australia, the Regional Cities lead the competitiveness rankings in the Demography

theme. The Gold Coast, Townsville and Ipswich in Queensland, Newcastle in New South Wales and

Geelong in Victoria are amongst the most competitive LGAs in demographic terms.

Figure 1: LGA competitiveness for Demography, Australia Source: [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index

Population Size

Over 8 million Australians live in regional Australia. Only some areas of regional Australia can

compete on population size. Competitive options for the Gold Coast in south-east Queensland with

more than half a million residents compared to remote Maralinga Tjarutja in South Australia (with

an estimated population of 75 people at last count) are considerably different simply as a result

of their population size.


The Demography theme reveals that just over half of all regional Australians live in a Regional

City (Figure 2). With over 4.3 million people, collectively Regional Cities are home to nearly as

many people as Sydney or Melbourne.

Regional Cities - not just the major metropolitan areas on the east and west coasts of the continent

- are experiencing population growth, despite receiving a lower proportion of net overseas

migration than the capital cities.

The bulk of the regional Australian population, however, remains concentrated in eastern Australia.

Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria have a network of Regional Cities that provide a

competitive population size and density that augment the competitiveness of Sydney, Melbourne

and Brisbane.

Figure 2: Proportion of regional Australians living in each type of regional area Source: [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index

Population Density

[In]Sight measures population density as a contributor to economic competitiveness. [In]Sight uses

population numbers from the 2011 Census and geographic areas to derive summary figures of

persons per square kilometre.

Despite technological advancements in transport and communications, the comparative advantage

of regions with more highly concentrated populations are clear: businesses have sufficient market

size to provide a wider range of goods and services; centres of industry contentration and

specialisation may more readily evolve with a sufficient labour force and the costs of delivering

and maintaining hard infrastructure tend to be lower.

Across Australia’s regions, population density tends to vary closely with proximity to the coast, but

also in relation to larger population centres and high-traffic transport corridors.

12 %

20%

14%

54%

Connected Lifestyle Regions

Heartland Regions

Industry and Service Hubs

Regional Cities


Population Turnover

Regional areas of Australia have substantially lower population turnover than metropolitan areas

– almost 10 per cent less at 47.9 per cent of residents leaving an LGA over the 2012-13 year.

Amongst the LGA regional types, Regional Cities have the lowest overall population turnover at

just 42.8 per cent. Population turnover tends to be lowest in the Regional Cities in the south-

eastern states of New South Wales and Victoria.

Table 1: Lowest population turnover rates in Regional Cities (2012-13)

LGA Population Turnover State

Latrobe 25.7% Victoria

Wollongong 26.4% New South Wales

Greater Geelong 27.1% Victoria

Lake Macquarie 29.4% New South Wales

Shellharbour 29.7% New South Wales

Greater Bendigo 29.7% Victoria

Greater Shepparton 29.8% Victoria

Shoalhaven 30.6% New South Wales

Gosford 31.2% New South Wales

Tamworth Regional 32.3% New South Wales

Population Growth

The trend in recent decades has been towards the concentration of populations in larger centres.

Larger population centres support the provision of a larger range of goods and services, present

opportunities for specialisation diversification and tend to become the focus of industrial activity.

A particular cluster of regional population growth is located in the south-west of Western Australia.

Serpentine-Jarrahdale leads the growth figures at 7.8 per cent for all LGAs including metropolitan

areas.

Population decline increases the difficulty of maintaining services in a local community. Regions that

experienced a population decline between 2012 and 2013 tended to be those with more smaller,

dispersed populations - the geographically larger town-based Heartland Regions LGAs.

Particular areas of interest include western Victoria, western New South Wales, south-western

Queensland and the agricultural areas of South Australia. Substantial areas of the Wheatbelt in

Western Australia also experienced population decline.

Senior Dependency

The long-term increase in the proportion of Australians over working-age has been well-explored.

Nationally, relatively fewer working-age people are available to support government


expenditures.iii As summarised in [In]Sight, Senior Dependency – the relative size of people aged

65 and over – is an important indicator in the context of an ageing Australia.

Heartland Regions and Connected Lifestyle Regions have relatively higher proportions of seniors

overall. Victor Harbor in South Australia has seven seniors for every 10 working age people.

Queenscliffe in Victoria and Great Lakes in New South Wales have six seniors for every 10

working age residents. Remote areas tend to have the lowest senior dependency ratios, reflecting

less availability of health and aged care services, but also the poor life expectancy in many of our

remote communities and a lack of aged care services.

Young Dependency

Regional Australia also tends to have more children (under 15 years) than metropolitan areas.

Regional Australia has a young dependency rate of 31.9 per cent compared to 26.1 per cent for

metropolitan Australia.


Demography in Different Types of Regions

The RAI identifies four distinct and important types of regions that have different development

pathways (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Four types of regional communities

Source: RAI Talking Point: Foundations of Regional Australia

Each type of region has its own potential given its demography. Summary results by regional type

across each group for each indicator in Demography are shown in Table 2.

Overall, Regional Cities also include the most demographically competitive parts of regional

Australia. Regional Cities are the largest and most densely populated areas of regional Australia.

They are also generally growing with stable populations and youth and aged dependency ratios

at or below those in other regions.

On average, every type of region in Australia has a growing population. This is important to

emphasise as popular misconceptions paint regional Australia as having a widespread decline in

population.


Table 2: Relative demographic competitiveness amongst the regional types

Group Regional Cities Connected Lifestyle

Regions Industry and Service Hubs

Heartland Regions

Poplation size

Most competitive

(99,597 people)

Competitive

(18,154 people)

Highly competitive

(30, 196 people)

Least competitive

(5, 824 people)

Population density

Most competitive

(163/sq. km)

Less competitive

(32/sq. km)

Less competitive

(46/sq. km)

Least competitive

(7/sq. km)

Population growth

Most competitive (1.6%)

Highly competitive (1.4%)

Less competitive (1. 2%)

Least competitive (0.5%)

Population turnover

Most competitive

(42.8%)

Less competitive

(48.7%)


Least competitive

(48.9%)

Youth dependency

Competitive

(30.4%)

Competitive

(30.3%)

Competitive

(31.0%)

Competitive

(32.6%)

Senior dependency

Most competitive

(24.2%)

Least competitive (28.4%)

Less competitive

(26.0%)


All regional types also have higher levels of youth and senior dependency than metropolitan

areas. On average there are around three children for every 10 people of working age in

regional Australia. This means that the demand for services will be higher per capita in regions.

The proportion of seniors is highest in Connected Lifestyle Regions. This reflects the trend for older

Australians to move from the city to regions nearby. These levels of dependency mean that on

average each area will require more services for aged people. The RAI’s work on Super Boomers

demonstrates that aged Australians can provide alot of valuable business experience and social

capital to regional communities. Servicing this population is also a source of economic opportunity

in these regions that could counter the competitive downsides.

Population Turnover is lowest in Regional Cities on average and only slightly higher in Industry and

Service Hubs. Connected Lifestyle Regions have higher rates of turnover, suggesting many regions

in these groups experience population shifts that may challenge stability and social capital.

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Talking-Point-Super-Boomers-FINAL.pdf


Demography in Regional Australia: A State Perspective

Figure 3: Proportion of regional Australians in each state

Source: [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index

Northern Australia has a clear competitive advantage in Demography, particularly in population

growth. At a state level, the states of Western Australia, Queensland and Northern Territory

individually are growing almost twice as fast the other states.

Figure 4: Population growth in regional Australia, state perspective Source: RAI [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index

The relative competitiveness of the regional areas of each state and the Northern Territory is

summarised in Table 3 below. The Northern Territory comes out on balance as having the most

favourable regional Demography, despite being less competitive in terms of youth dependency.iv

This suggests that if the Northern Territory can build competitive human capital outcomes, sustain

the rate of growth, and convert its current youth dependency into a productive and healthy future

workforce, demography will provide significant opportunities for prosperity.

32.1%

17.6%

28.6%

7.9%

4.9%

6.2% 2.7%

Regional NSW

Regional VIC

Regional QLD

Regional WA

Regional SA

TAS

NT

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA

Connected Lifestyle Regions

Heartland Regions

Industry and Service Hubs

Regional Cities


Table 3: Summary of Demography and competitiveness in the regional areas of each state and the Northern Territory

Regional

NSW Regional

VIC Regional

QLD Regional

WA Regional

SA TAS NT

Population size

Highly competitive

(24,128 people)

Highly competitive

(30,036 people)

Most competitive

(36,846 people)

Least competitive

(5,916 people)

Less competitive

(7,953 people)

Competitive

(17,659 people)

Competitive

(13,336 people)

Population density

Competitive

(33/sq. km)

Competitive

(29/sq. km)

Less competitive

(21/sq. km)

Least competitive

(14/sq. km)

Highly competitive

(41/sq. km)

Highly competitive

(61/sq. km)

Most competitive

(92/sq.km)

Population growth

Competitive

(0.60%)

Less competitive

(0.47%)

Highly competitive

(1.08%)

Highly competitive

(1.35%)

Less competitive

(0.27%)

Least competitive

(0.01%)

Most competitive

(1.88%)

Population turnover

Highly competitive

(36.48%)

Most competitive

(36.13%)

Competitive

(48.6%)

Least competitive

(69.83%)

Competitive

(40.65%)

Competitive

(41.63%)

Competitive

(46.47%)

Youth dependency

Competitive

(32.19%)

Highly competitive

(30.00%)

Less competitive

(35.06%)

Competitive

(31.42%)

Most competitive

(29.54%)

Highly competitive

(29.18%)

Least competitive

(36.46%)

Senior dependency

Less competitive

(30.60%)

Least competitive

(32.07%)

Competitive

(17.91%)

Competitive

(21.57%)

Less competitive

(29.80%)

Less competitive

(27.84%)

Most competitive

(8.29%)

Regional Victoria is also very competitive. The most competitive population turnover, highly

competitive results in population size and youth dependency underpin this result.

Other states have more average levels of competitiveness. New South Wales is competitive for most

indicators including density, growth and youth dependency. Growth in the working age population

would put regional New South Wales in a much more competitive position.

Lack of population size and population density, and high population turnover are the key

demographic constraints in Western Australia. While South Australia is limited by poor population

growth, smaller population size and higher rates of senior dependency, it is more competitive in

terms of population density and youth dependency.


Competitiveness in Tasmania is constrained by low population growth and a high rate of senior

dependency. Tasmania needs to attract younger working age people to change its competitive

position in this theme.


Making the Most of Regional Australia’s Demographic

Advantage

Demography patterns are relatively difficult to shift in the short term through regional development

strategies. The task for regional leaders is to understand and work with demographic challenges

and to look for innovative ways to overcome a lack of population size and density.

The RAI’s work on population mobility provides some important insights on how this can be achieved.

Regions with an ageing population can look to harness the opportunities presented by Super Boomers

to offset the impacts of dependency while also looking to develop aged services as an important

local industry. Regions seeking working age people can look to leverage the trend for working age

Regional Returners to leave the city looking for the regional lifestyle. Immigration is a further

opportunity which will be the subject of a future release by the RAI.

Northern Australia

Demography in northern Australia is an area of great, untapped potential for the nation. Although

the south-east parts of the country are home to the majority of Australia’s regional population, the

potential competitiveness of the north remains largely unrecognised and poorly leveraged.

Population growth in northern Australia is on average 1.47 per cent compared to 0.7 per cent for

regional LGAs in the southern part of Australia. The mining boom has been a significant factor in

attracting new people to the area, however the challenge for regions seeking to take advantage of

their mineral and other regions is to ensure that the benefits are sustained.

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/archive-blog/research-making-your-community-super/

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Final-Returners-Paper1.pdf


Making the Most of [In]Sight

More about how northern Australia can leverage its competitiveness to bring future success is

contained in the RAI’s report Rethinking the future of northern Australia's regions: more than mines,

dams and development dreams.

To learn more about how people in regional Australia support our nations competitiveness please

also see the two other papers in the [In]Sights for Competitive Regions series:

Human Capital: find out how prepared region’s population is to effectively utilise

technology and other resources.

Labour Market Efficiency: find out how we are engaging the potential workforce in different

parts of regional Australia and where are the best opportunities to maximise people’s

contribution.

Technological Readiness: find out if your area has the infrastructure and resources it needs

to develop in the digital age.

These publications and the 624 [In]Sight competitiveness profiles are available for review at

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight

Regional comparisons, data downloads and expert advice from the RAI are also available for

anyone interested in putting [In]Sight to work.

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/archive-blog/policy-rethinking-the-future-of-northern-australia/

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/archive-blog/policy-rethinking-the-future-of-northern-australia/

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight/


Appendix: Demography Theme Rankings, Top Performers in Regional Australia

Top Performing Regional City LGAs

LGA Rank State

Newcastle 14 New South Wales

Gold Coast 60 Queensland

Darwin 69 Northern Territory

Wollongong 87 New South Wales

Ipswich 88 Queensland

Lake Macquarie 93 New South Wales

Townsville 95 Queensland

Greater Geelong 103 Victoria

Cairns 107 Queensland

Gosford 114 New South Wales

Top Performing Connected Lifestyle Regions

LGA Rank State

Queanbeyan 144 New South Wales

Serpentine-Jarrahdale 146 Western Australia

Gawler 147 South Australia

Mitchell 171 Victoria

Boddington 180 Western Australia

Livingstone 187 Queensland

Byron 191 New South Wales

Moorabool 197 Victoria

Macedon Ranges 198 Victoria

Baw Baw 199 Victoria

Top Performing Industry and Service Hubs

LGA Rank State

Mount Gambier 131 South Australia

Warrnambool 155 Victoria

Karratha 161 Western Australia

Kalgoorlie/Boulder 173 Western Australia

Central Highlands 175 Queensland

Broome 176 Western Australia

Greater Geraldton 181 Western Australia

Busselton 182 Western Australia

Alice Springs 195 Northern Territory

Port Hedland 210 Western Australia


Top Performing Heartland Region LGAs

LGA Rank State

Weipa 133 Queensland

Port Lincoln 150 South Australia

Maralinga Tjarutja 151 South Australia

Sandstone 152 Western Australia

Wiluna 153 Western Australia

Derby-West Kimberley 154 Western Australia

Whitsunday 159 Queensland

Laverton 164 Western Australia

Ngaanyatjarraku 178 Western Australia

Meekatharra 183 Western Australia


About Us

Independent and informed by both research and ongoing dialogue with the community, the

Regional Australia Institute develops policy and advocates for change to build a stronger economy

and better quality of life in regional Australia - for the benefit of all Australians.

To find out more about the RAI contact us at [email protected] or visit

www.regionalaustralia.org.au

Disclaimer and Copyright

This research report translates and analyses findings of research to enable an informed public

discussion of regional issues in Australia. It is intended to assist people to think about their

perspectives, assumptions and understanding of regional issues.

No responsibility is accepted by the RAI, its Board or its funders for the quality of advice or

decisions made by others based on the information presented in this publication.

Unless otherwise specified, the contents of this report remain the property of the RAI. Reproduction for

non-commercial purposes with attribution of authorship is permitted.

Contacts and Further Information

To discuss [In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography further please contact:

Jack Archer

Deputy Chief Executive Officer

[email protected]

(02) 6260 3733

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/




End Notes

i Population declie, or lower population growth relative to metropolitan areas

ii All trends are explored based on the averages of the regional LGAs within the given area. This approach is to explore the trends within the given area rather than the overall result.

iii Third Intergenerational Report, Department of the Treasury, Australian Government, 2010.

iv The RAI notes however that this result is partly supported by a low senior dependency ratio in the Northern Territory. Lower life expectancy amongst significant parts of the population and movement of people to the South to access aged care services are factors contributing to fewer older people in the population. A healthier population with a life expectancy similar to the rest of the nation and better aged care services are important goals for the Northern Territory. This result should be read in combination with human capital where health and education outcomes are included in [In]Sight.

[in]sights for competitive regions: demography - welcome - regional australia … · 2016-04-06 ·...

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