I N S I G H T S – T H E I A C A N E W S L E T T E R – I S S U E 2

I N S I G H T S

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THIS ISSUE

Case Study

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Training

Opportunities

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Our team members determined earlier on this year through an online survey that case studies were incredibly valuable to members. In our third edition of Insights, we feature a case study of an indecent exposure series from Tony Scafide with the Montgomery County Police Department. This case study combined temporal, geographic, and victim analysis to bring the investigation to a successful conclusion.

It's important for our membership to share their work as it demonstrates opportunities for other analysts to replicate this work. In some cases, training may be difficult to obtain or supervisors may not necessarily know how to best capitalize on their analysts' skill sets. Through such case examples, we can share this exemplary work as a "springboard" to conduct similar work in our own agencies, but also to demonstrate the value of our profession to others.

We thank in advance and encourage our members to showcase their work to the larger membership. We all have varied experiences and skills. It's important that we don't work in silos but to network and share experiences amongst our peers. Please don't hesitate to share your work. All contributions are valuable as our membership is diverse. Insights and our Committee are committed to providing beneficial resources to our membership.

If there is any feedback or content you wish to send to us, feel free to connect with us at publications@iaca.net.

P U B L I C A T I O N S C O M M I T T E E U P D A T E S

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Translation Disclaimer

The official text of this document is the English language version and has been translated for your convenience. In case of a discrepancy, the original English version will prevail. To report a translation error or inaccuracy or suggest a more appropriate contextual understanding, please contact ioc-translations@iaca.net & ioc-director@iaca.net.

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Tony Scafide

Senior Crime Analyst

Montgomery County Police Department

The use of crime forecasting in the field of Crime Analysis is a valuable addition as a force multiplier. However, one must use the technique with great deliberation so as not to provide predictions that are based on inadequate data or specious analysis. There are few things worse for an analyst than a department committing resources to a prediction that does not materialize. This case study will illustrate an indecent exposure crime series in Montgomery County, Maryland, where a significant number of predictive elements were identified leading to the issuing of a next event forecast, the subsequent allocation of police resources, and, finally, the successful capture of the offender.

On March 8th, 2018, police received a call where a victim was walking her dog when a subject approached her, pointed to his genital area, and stated, “Do you want this?” The suspect then walked away. Three days later on March 11th, a suspect with a similar description to the first event approached a victim at a bus stop and asked for the time. The suspect then stated, “You want some of this?”, exposed his genitals and masturbated. The victim screamed and the suspect walked away. At this point, the Montgomery County Police Department’s Crime Analysis Section began looking for suspects that may be responsible for these events. Unfortunately, searches of our databases did not turn up viable suspects.

As the cases continued to accumulate, a matrix was created and distributed to beat officers in an effort to provide preventative patrols and develop leads. It was believed that all incidents were committed by the same suspect due to the similarities in suspect descriptions and modus operandi. The seemingly randomness of the events (an almost four-week gap in events between late March to mid-April) proved

difficult for patrol, even though the intervals between incidents decreased in April events. However, a pattern was detected. With a sample size of only seven events, the predictive possibilities were just beginning to materialize.

A simple temporal analysis revealed all the events occurred in the morning hours between 0648 and 1155 hours. Furthermore, the events that occurred in the area around Girard Street (lower area of the map) had a very tight time span between 0648 and 0736 hours. While events occurred on different days (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday), the most common, or mode day, was Sunday.

Geographic analysis of the event locations showed a tight group of five of the seven total events along the Girard Street corridor. While two events occurred on Centerway Road to the north, the events were less numerous and had larger differences in the range of time. Additionally, four of the events occurred at bus stops in the Girard corridor.

Analysis of the victims concluded that the suspect preferred white or Hispanic females whose age ranged from thirty-three to sixty-four.

When the above analysis was completed, a prediction was presented to the 6th District Detective Bureau after the event on 04/24/2018:

C A S E S T U D Y :

Catching a Serial Indecent Exposure

Suspect Using Temporal, Geographic, and

Victim Analysis

Continued on page 3

Français Português Deutsche Español

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“Five indecent exposures and one attempt have occurred since March 11th, 2018 in the morning hours (four at bus stops) along the Goshen Road, Girard Street, Victory Farm Drive, and Centerway Road corridors. In these events, the suspect has exposed his genitals to white and Hispanic female victims waiting at bus stops or walking. In three events, the suspect first asks the victim for the “time.” The suspect prefers Sunday mornings between 6:50 a.m. and 7:36 a.m. on Goshen Road, Girard Street, and Victory Farm Drive. Note that the suspect has hit this area on the last two consecutive Sundays. On Wednesdays, 9:00 a.m. to noon on Centerway Road was preferred.” (Note: The first event on the matrix, while related, is classified neither an indecent exposure nor attempt.)

With input from the District Crime Analyst, a plan of action was developed. Female undercover detectives meeting the general physical preferences of the suspect were placed at bus stops along the Girard Street corridor on Sunday morning at 6:30 a.m. In addition to the numerous additional detectives, the district’s Special Assignment Team of plain clothed officers were in the area observing and ready to make the apprehension.

On Sunday, April 29th at approximately 7:15 a.m., a maroon Jeep with DC registration was observed as it drove onto North Summit Avenue off Girard Street. The driver stared at one of the undercover detectives at the bus stop as he drove by and turned left into an apartment complex. The driver drove back and took another look at the detective and then backed all the way up to the intersection. The

suspect parked, walked up to the detective, asked her what time the bus would arrive, and then exposed himself and masturbated. The detective did not react to the suspect, so the suspect walked back to his vehicle. He was arrested as he attempted to flee the scene.

The importance of the crime analysis prediction function in this event cannot be overstated. The suspect was transient which made suspect development difficult and investigative analysis problematic. After the suspect’s arrest, it was learned that he was residing in Southeast Washington, DC and was visiting a female with whom he was romantically involved in northern Montgomery County. On the way to and from his romantic interest’s residence, the suspect was looking for victims. This accounted for the randomness of time between events. The suspect would have to be in the area and have a suitable victim for an event to occur. Analysis of the preceding indecent exposures allowed detectives to recreate the conditions needed during the correct times of occurrence to produce a successful outcome. Without this analysis it is possible that these events would have continued.

Note: After the suspect’s arrest it was learned he had committed similar acts in Washington, DC and was a registered violent sex offender in Illinois.

Launch Video

“What made these cases

special was the way in which

crime analysis was deeply

involved in the development

of an operational plan and the

significant resources provided

based solely upon data

analysis

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Optimizing Analytical Function in Policing

January 2 - March 26, 2022 Register Now

Course language: English

This 12-week course is intended for managers and individuals of analytical units seeking to develop and improve the sustainability, professionalism, utilization, and legacy of their analytical capacities. The purpose is to aid law enforcement agencies in effectively designing and implementing a long-term data-driven infrastructure that professionalizes analytical efforts and exceptionally serves the agency and community. This course provides various strategies and tools to build an agency’s analytical capacity and legacy in a way that nurtures, grows, and retains quality analytical function and purpose.

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IACA Members: $395

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Fundamentals of Crime Analysis

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Course Language: English

The objective of this 12-week course is to expose students to a variety of analytical techniques utilized in law enforcement to describe and understand crime patterns, series, and trends as they occur. Throughout this course, students will examine concepts; theories, practices, data and analysis techniques associated with the field of crime analysis for law enforcement. Additional topics that will be covered include understanding criminal behavior, behavioral geography, linking crimes, forecasting, and predication. Throughout this class, we will use case studies to apply the knowledge. Students will be able to work a crime series from start to finish.

Course Information: What: Fundamentals of Crime Analysis - January 2022 When: January 2 - March 26, 2022 How Much?

IACA Members: $395

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Criminal Investigative Analysis

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The objective of this course is to gain an understanding of criminal investigative analysis/criminal profiling. This course will examine factors that influence serious violent criminals and their behavior. Throughout this course students will learn the history and methods of criminal investigative analysis/criminal profiling, how to analyze crime scenes for offender behaviors and characteristics utilizing critical thinking, science ad logical reasoning. Students will examine various case studies each week focusing on MO/Signature, crime scene behaviors, and crime linkage. This 12-week course will focus on offender typologies, patterns and motives of criminals, offender profiles and the psychological make-up of serial violent offenders.

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T R A I N I N G O P P O R T U N I T I E S

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Problem Analysis

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Understand how to use various crime analysis computer applications and manipulate data

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Have basic knowledge of statistics and research methodology

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Happy National Crime and Intelligence Analyst Appreciation Day!