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Insights into the Container Freight Market
Insights into the Container Freight Market
27.02.2020
Clemens SchapelerInitiative ManagerTim Consult GmbH
A brief guide to current market factors, ocean carriers & the IMO 2020 impact
Stefan DienerConsultantTim Consult GmbH
Tim Consult in Short
27.02.2020 Public
• 1995: Foundation
Tim Consult
• 2015: Foundation
Tim Consult Inc., USA
• 2018: Merger with Transporeon
• Experts for road &
rail, ocean and air transport
• Procurement specialists
• Logistics strategists
• Data analysis professionals
• 80% DAX 30
• 50 % Fortune 100
• SME market leaders
• 1,700 successful
projects
• More than 100 MII
Community members
• With more than 12 billion Euro freight spend analyzed
History TeamCustomers Achievements
Market Intelligence – Procurement Excellence – Smart Consulting
27.02.2020 Public
Bunker prices
- 20 %Q4/2019 vs. Q3/2019
Containership fleet
23.6 m TEUin February
Total container
volumes in December
14.3 m TEU
Current Market SituationKey factors influencing rates
Sources: Alphaliner; CTS ContainerTradeStatistics
27.02.2020 Public
11,8% of TEU capacity
were scrubber fitted by
early 2020
EC published a draft
regulation proposing to
extend BER
Transpacific container
volumes drop 2,5% in
2019
Current Market SituationNews from ocean carriers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
US
D p
er
MT
Singapore VLSFO Singapore IFO380 Singapore LSMGO
Start of IMO 2020 Regulation
• LSFO currently following
LSMGO price
• High volatility
• Great demand for LSFO
• Peak due to Start of IMO
2020 Regulation
• Mixing of fuel components
brings price close to MGO
• Expect reassurance at
Marine Fuel Market
Comparison of LSFO to other Marine Fuels
Source: Ship&Bunker, 2019; CPC Taiwan, 2019
Ø + 180 USD/MTØ + 300 USD/MT
Public27.02.2020
Bunkering Ports with LSFO Availablity
Source: Tim Consult Research, 2019
LSFO available
Worldwide Hot Spots
27.02.2020 Public
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
US$
/MT
Gibraltar VLSFO Istanbul VLSFOPiraeus VLSFO Rotterdam VLSFOFujairah VLSFO
What happened in the last two weeks?
− Strongly decreasing price differences (77,00 US$/MT)
− Rotterdam with 472,00 US$/MT the cheapest port in Europe (- 0,50 US$/MT)
− Piraeus with 549 US$/MT the most expensive port in Europe (- 30,00 US$/MT)
− Decreasing prices in Europe
− Great differences between the size of the decrease
− Strongest decrease in Istanbul (-71,00 US$/MT)
Europe& Middle East
27.02.2020 Public
Source: Tim Consult Research, 2019
Expected Solutions by Carrier 2020Non-Compliance?
Estimates based on carriers public statements and known ordering activity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
APM-Maersk MSC COSCO CMA CGM Hapag-Lloyd ONE Evergreen Yang Ming HyundaiM.M.
Sha
re o
f V
ess
els
[%]
LNG
Scrubber+ IFO
Low Sulfur Fuel Oil
27.02.2020 Public
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Wo
rld
cel
lula
r fl
eet
cap
acit
y [T
EU] M
illio
n
Demand & Supply DevelopmentModerate Demand Growth since 2015. Fleet Expansion kept Overcapacity up.
To slow down 2019. Order Book is the big Question Mark for 2020 ff.
+6%+7%
+6%+4,4% +3,5%
* Projections (based on current data operated fleet; demolition is considered) | Sources: Alphaliner (2019); CTS ContainerTradeStatistics | yellow: order book
Supply Development 2015 - 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Glo
bal
ly s
hip
ped
vo
lum
es [T
EU]
Mill
ion
+4,1%+5,3%
+2,9%+1,1% +2-3%
Demand Development 2015 - 2020
27.02.2020 Public
Webinar: Brief Update on
Transport Market
Developments - February
March 19, 2020
Register here
Update Conference
Market Intelligence Initiative
Global Ocean Transport
April 22, 2020
Register here
Upcoming Webinars & EventsTim Consult Market Intelligence Initiatives
Public
The Air Cargo Market: 2019
Performance, Market
Dynamics & 2020 Prognosis
March 12, 2020
Register here
27.02.2020
Thank you!