insights south asia - nepal survey 2011 results

Insights South Asia

Nepal survey

2011 results

Insights South Asia Nepal survey

2

Table of contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 3

Main findings ................................................................................................................................. 5

1. Vital issues for the Nepalese .................................................................................................... 7

2. Connections with other South Asian countries ...................................................................... 8

2.1. Friends or relatives in another South Asian country ................................................................... 8

2.2. Visits to other South Asian countries ........................................................................................... 8

3. Opinions about other countries............................................................................................... 9

3.1. Opinions about neighbouring countries ...................................................................................... 9

3.2. Opinions about other countries or group of countries .............................................................. 10

4. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) ..................................... 12

4.1. Awareness of SAARC .................................................................................................................. 12

4.2. Nepalese being aware of SAARC more often had a positive view of other South Asian

countries ........................................................................................................................................... 13

5. Obstacles to - and advantages of - regional cooperation .................................................. 13

5.1. Perceived obstacles to establishing closer regional ties ............................................................ 13

5.2. Importance of potential benefits of closer regional cooperation ............................................. 15

5.3 Differences between respondents who had heard of SAARC and those who had not when

evaluating potential hurdles and advantages of regional cooperation ............................................ 15

6. Threats to the security of the South Asian region ............................................................... 17

6.1. Type of threats ........................................................................................................................... 17

6.2. Countries posing a major threat to security .............................................................................. 17

7. Economy and living standards ............................................................................................... 18

7.1. Economic conditions today and major factors preventing better economic conditions .......... 18

7.2. Current development of economic conditions .......................................................................... 19

7.3. Changing standards of living ...................................................................................................... 19

7.4. Other countries impact on the Nepalese economy .................................................................. 20

8. Migration ................................................................................................................................. 22

9. Domestic issues ....................................................................................................................... 23

9.1. Preferred role of religion in the political system ....................................................................... 23

9.2. Acceptance of violence as a means to resolving conflicts ......................................................... 23

9.3. Fight against corruption ............................................................................................................. 24

Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 24

Focus on youth ............................................................................................................................ 26

Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 28

About SADF.................................................................................................................................. 31

About Gallup Europe .................................................................................................................. 32

Annex tables ................................................................................................................................ 33

Questionnaire .............................................................................................................................. 95


3

Introduction

South Asia is of great strategic interest for Europe, both from a security perspective as well as from an

economic point of view. Tensions between India and Pakistan recently prompted pundits to declare the

countries shared border to be the most dangerous in the world. At the same time, terrorist groups

operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to be a direct threat to regional and global security,

despite the NATO-led security mission in Afghanistan that started in 2001.

The EU has a major interest in improving its trade relations with India, with which it is trying to negoti-

ate a new Free Trade Agreement since 2007. However, it should not be overlooked that South Asia not

only hosts booming India, but also four of the least developed countries in the world: Afghanistan,

Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. Such uneven economic development as well as security problems

within the region can only be adequately addressed by closer regional cooperation. It is self-evident

that this can only be initiated by the South Asian countries themselves. However, the EU as well as

other global players should be prepared to assist them in this process.

Against this background, I felt that a dialogue platform, bringing together South Asian and European

thinkers and decision makers was needed to exchange views of best practices and to offer concrete

solutions to push the South Asian integration process forward and this became the driving force be-

hind the creation of the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) in the beginning of 2011. I was con-

vinced that as a first step SADF needed to provide European and South Asian leaders with solid in-

formation about public opinion in South Asian countries on the prospects of enhancing regional co-

operation. Are people in favour or against closer cooperation with their neighbours? What do they

consider as the major obstacles to forging closer ties? And which potential benefits would they find

most important?

In order to find an answer to these questions, SADF decided to cooperate with The Gallup Organiza-

tion, the leading company for measuring global public opinion that can look back on a longstanding

record of polling in South Asia. It is the ambition of SADF to continue the Insights South Asia project by

conducting similar surveys in all eight South Asian nations forming the South Asian Association for

Regional Cooperation (SAARC): Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan

and Sri Lanka about issues ranging from economic development, democracy, conflict prevention to

economic and political cooperation. The findings will serve to inform the debate among policymakers

and stakeholders and provide solid and much-needed evidence and indicators to monitor progress

and transformations in these areas.

This report presents the latest results from Nepal, the first country surveyed. The fieldwork was carried

out in Nepal between 16 July and 7 August 2011. 1,000 randomly selected citizens aged 15 and older

were interviewed. The interviews were conducted face-to-face.

The survey results clearly show that the Nepalese would embrace more regional integration in South

Asia. SADF believes that it is crucial to know whether this wish for stronger cooperation is shared in the

region. Reading this report you will realise that public opinion and attitudes in this region might in

many instances be at odds with the situation usually portrayed in the media. I am therefore convinced

that if we really want to support South Asian politicians in finding new ways and areas of cooperation

a process that will bring more prosperity and stability to this war-torn region and ultimately make the

world a safer place we need to gather more reliable data on the ground on what the regions citizens


4

really think. In order to make this happen, SADF would be delighted to welcome more partners to join

and support its Insights South Asia survey project, and this is what we invite you to consider after hav-

ing read the following pages.

Brussels, 21 September 2011

Paulo Casaca

Executive Director of the South Asia Democratic Forum


5

Main findings

Vital issues for the Nepalese

When asked to choose two items (from a list of eight) that were the most important in their per-

sonal lives, a majority (58%) of Nepalese chose education. Family was selected as one of the most im-

portant issues by 44% of respondents, while health and work were mentioned by, respectively, 37% and

31% of respondents.

Connections with other South Asian countries

A third (33%) of Nepalese surveyed had friends or relatives living in another South Asian

country (i.e. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka or Afghanistan). Almost all

of these respondents with friends or relatives in another country answered that these friends or rela-

tives lived in India (95%). Nearly half (48%) of Nepalese surveyed had at least once visited

another South Asian country; virtually all of these respondents said they had visited India (97%).

Opinions about other countries

India was clearly the most popular country among the South Asian countries. More than 8 in 10 (84%)

respondents said they had a rather positive opinion about their big neighbour. About 4 in 10 respon-

dents held a positive view about Bangladesh (44%), Sri Lanka (43%), Bhutan (40%) and the Maldives

(39%). Pakistan and Afghanistan had the least positive ratings among South Asian countries, 33% and

26%, respectively.

When asked to voice their opinion about countries from other parts of the world, almost

three-quarters held a favourable attitude towards China and the US (74% and 73%, respectively). Japan

was the third most popular country among the foreign powers listed in the survey (65% viewed it

positively). The results for the three European countries Germany, France or the UK showed that

44%-46% had a positive opinion about them. Large shares of respondents did not know enough about

the various countries listed in the survey to formulate an opinion.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

Following a short description of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a

majority of 57% confirmed having heard about the association. Strikingly, almost all (98%) respondents

who were aware of SAARC thought that Nepals membership of the association was a good thing.

Perceived obstacles to establishing closer regional ties

In the eyes of Nepalese, the two biggest obstacles to establishing a more intensive regional coopera-

tion among the countries in South Asia were the arms race between India and Pakistan (60% saw this as

an obstacle) and historic animosities (58%).

Importance of potential benefits of closer regional cooperation

Respondents appeared to accept all benefits of regional cooperation (as listed in the survey) as being

important: the proportion of important responses ranged from 75% for better transport connections

to neighbouring countries and more respect for ethnic and cultural diversity when visiting

neighbouring countries to 86% for more job opportunities in this country.by at least three-quarters


6

of respondents to 82% cheaper imports and 86% for more job opportunities in this country.

Threats to the security of the South Asian region

Terrorism was seen as the greatest threat to security in the South Asian region 4 in 10 (40%) re-

spondents ranked it number one from a list of six potential threats. Crime was the second most fre-

quently mentioned security threat (20%). When asked which South Asian country posed the greatest

danger to security in the region, Pakistan ranked number one (selected by 28%).

Economy

The largest proportion of respondents (41%) rated economic conditions in their country as poor, and a

further 30% as only fair. Just a handful of respondents said that economic conditions were excellent

(3%) and roughly a fifth (19%) considered them as good. A lack of political leadership and corruption

were by far the most frequently mentioned factors preventing economic growth in Nepal.

Nepalese were more optimistic when answering the question about future economic developments;

45% of respondents felt that the economy in their country was getting better, compared to 35% who

said it was getting worse. India was perceived as having the biggest impact on the Nepalese economy.

Living standards

About three-quarters (77%) of Nepalese had seen an improvement in their standard of living in the

past five years. About 1 in 10 (9%) reported that their familys standard of living had deteriorated and

14% felt it had stayed the same in the time frame. Furthermore, about 8 in 10 (79%) Nepalese said that

their familys standard of living was getting better at the time of the survey, compared to 11% who said

that it was getting worse.

Migration

More than two-thirds (69%) of Nepalese wanted to continue living in their country, while 31% would

like to move temporarily or permanently to another country. The United States was the most preferred

destination (11% of all respondents), followed by India (6% of all respondents).

Preferred role of religion in the political system

If Nepalese would be given a choice between a secular democracy or a Hindu democracy, the majority

(63%) would prefer the latter, while a third (34%) would favour the former.

Acceptance of violence as a means to resolving conflicts

A vast majority (81%) of Nepalese disagreed that the use of violence was an accepted means of re-

solving conflicts in their country nowadays, compared to 10% of respondents who held an opposite

view i.e. that the use of violence was still accepted and 9% who did not answer.

Fight against corruption

A slim majority (54%) of Nepalese thought that their government was not doing enough to fight cor-

ruption, while 30% were satisfied with their governments efforts in this regard. A share of 16% did not

answer this question.


7

1. Vital issues for the Nepalese

Respondents were asked to choose two

items from a list of eight items that

were the most important in their per-

sonal lives. A majority (58%) of Nepalese

chose education as one of the most im-

portant issues (out of the eight issues

listed). Family was selected as one of the

most important issues by 44% of re-

spondents, while health and work were

mentioned by, respectively, 37% and

31% of respondents. All other topics

were selected as being the most impor-

tant by considerably smaller shares: 11%

for religion and spirituality, 10% for living conditions, 5% for the environment and 3% for law and order.

Socio-demographic patterns

Looking at differences across socio-demographic groups, some interesting patterns emerged. The

older the respondents were, the more likely they were to value family and religion/spirituality. For

example, 26% of over 54 year-olds chose religion and spirituality as one of the most important aspects

of their lives, compared to just 6% of 15-24 year-olds. The opposite pattern was observed when look-

ing at the proportions selecting education; the younger the respondents were, the more inclined they

were to find this important.

As expected, the likelihood to select education also increased with respondents level of education. For

example, 74% of those with a university education selected this item from the list, compared to 27% of

illiterate respondents. Those with higher levels of education also placed more emphasis on health, but

respondents with low levels of education were twice as likely as those with high levels of education to

mention work. The least educated were also more likely to choose family as an important aspect of

their lives.

Among the various occupational groups, students put special emphasis on living conditions (16% vs.

2%-9% across all other occupational groups) and education (85% vs. 48%-58%), while they were the

least likely to mention family (26% vs. 37%-57%). Similarly, the biggest difference between men and

women was that the latter were more likely to name family (49% vs. 38%).

Vital issues for the Nepalese

36

26

13

13

5

5

2

1

22

18

25

18

6

5

3

2

58

44

37

31

11

10

5

3

Education

Family

Health

Work

Religion and spirituality

Living conditions

Environment

Law and order

first response second response in total

Q1. Which TWO of the following are most important to you?Base: all respondents


8

2. Connections with other South Asian countries

2.1. Friends or relatives in another South Asian country

A third (33%) of Nepalese surveyed had friends or relatives living in another South Asian country (i.e.

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka or Afghanistan). Almost all of these re-

spondents with friends or relatives in another country answered that these friends or relatives lived in

India (95%). Other South Asian countries mentioned in this context were Bangladesh (2.1%), Afghani-

stan (1.5%), Pakistan (0.8%) and Sri Lanka (0.5%).

Friends and relatives living in another South Asian country

3366

1

Yes No DK/NA

Q2. Do you have any friends or relatives living in another South Asian country that is, in India, Pakistan,

Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, or Afghanistan?Base: all respondents

Q3. In which South Asian country or countries do they live?

Base: those who have friends or relativesliving in another South Asian country

95

2.1

1.5

0.8

0.5

India

Bangladesh

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Where?Do you have any?

IF Y

ES

Respondents living in large cities more frequently had friends or relatives who lived abroad: 46% of

large city dwellers said they had friends or relatives who lived in another South Asian country, com-

pared to 23%-33% of those living in suburbs, rural areas, small villages or towns.

2.2. Visits to other South Asian countries

Nearly half (48%) of Nepalese surveyed had at least once visited another South Asian country; virtually

all of these respondents said they had visited India (97%). A handful of respondents had been to Bhu-

tan, Bangladesh or Pakistan (all 1%). This result, as well as the one discussed in the previous section,

underlines Indias exceptional position in Nepal, built on India and Nepals strong cultural, religious,

historical, economic and political ties.

Men and respondents who lived in large cities or suburbs were more likely than women and rural

dwellers to have visited another South Asian country. Similarly, the higher respondents standard of

living1, the more likely they were to have visited other countries in the region.

1

The survey asked Nepalese respondents the following question to determine a familys standard of living: Using a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 means a poor family and 7 means a rich family, how would you rate your familys standard of living right now? About 6 in 10 (61%) positioned themselves between 1-3 and therefore can be considered as relatively poor.


9

Having visited another South Asian country

4852

Yes No

Q4. Have you ever visited another South Asian country that is, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Sri

Lanka, or Afghanistan?Base: all respondents

Q5. Which South Asian country or countries have you visited?

Base: those who visited another South Asian country

97

1.2

1.0

0.6

India

Bhutan

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Which one?Have you visited?

IF Y

ES

3. Opinions about other countries

3.1. Opinions about neighbouring countries

The Nepalese have a great affection for In-

dia; more than 8 in 10 (84%) respondents

said they had a rather positive opinion about

their big neighbour, while just 9% held an

opposite view and 7% said they did not

know (or preferred not to give an answer).

Respondents who had visited India were

overall the most likely to see the country in

positive light (90%); having friends or rela-

tives in India, however, had hardly any effect

on respondents image of their big

neighbour.

The remaining South Asian countries ap-

peared to be far less popular, which can

partially be explained by the fact that many respondents did not know enough about these countries

to formulate an opinion; the shares of dont know responses ranged from 33% for Pakistan to 53%

for the Maldives.

About 4 in 10 respondents held a positive view about Bangladesh (44%), Sri Lanka (43%), Bhutan (40%)

and the Maldives (39%). Nonetheless, among these four countries, Bhutan received the highest rate of

rather negative responses (16% vs. 8% across the other three countries). A potential explanation for

these negative perceptions are the difficult negotiations between Nepal and Bhutan to resettle ten

thousands of Lhotshampa refugees who fled from interethnic conflicts in Bhutan in the 1990s and are

84

44

43

40

39

33

26

9

8

8

16

8

34

29

7

48

49

43

53

33

45

India

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Maldives

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Rather positive Rather negative DK/NA

Q6. Do you have a rather positive or a rather negative opinion about the following South Asian countries?

Base: all respondents

Opinions about various South Asian countries


10

currently living in Nepalese refugee camps.2

Pakistan and Afghanistan had the least positive ratings in the survey; almost equal proportions of re-

spondents either had a rather positive or rather negative opinion about these countries (Pakistan: 34%

rather negative vs. 33% rather positive; Afghanistan: 29% rather negative and 26% rather posi-

tive).

Socio-demographic observations

The most noticeable differences between the various socio-demographic groups were that women3,

respondents from rural areas and villages, older respondents and those with lower levels of education

more frequently did not answer the questions about Nepals neighbouring countries. This can probably

be explained by the fact that in Nepal the literacy rates among women, older respondents and rural

residents are considerably lower than among other groups. For example, the survey found that 23% of

the interviewed women were illiterate (vs. 8% of men) and 11% (vs. 8% of men) had no formal educa-

tion4.

The youngest respondents (15-24 year-olds), large city dwellers and those with secondary/higher

secondary and university education were more liable to express a positive opinion about Pakistan and

Afghanistan. For example, respondents living in large cities were more than twice as likely as respon-

dents from rural areas to see Pakistan in positive light (62% vs. 28%). More than half (55%) of those

who had been to university and slightly more than 4 in 10 (42%) respondents with a secondary/higher

secondary education took a favourable stance on Pakistan, compared to 18% of illiterate respondents

and 22% of respondents with no formal education but who reported to be literate.

3.2. Opinions about other countries or group of countries

The survey also asked respondents about their opinions towards China, the United States, Japan, the

European Union, France, Germany and the UK. Although many respondents found it difficult to answer

questions about these countries (or group of countries), among Nepalese who voiced an opinion,

those who held a rather positive opinion about the country outnumbered those voicing a negative

opinion.

2 As of July 2011, the governments of Bhutan and Nepal had held at least 15 rounds bilateral talks, no practical solution was reached. For information on this topic, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutanese_refugees

3 The same was true for respondents working in the household. Since almost all of them were women (98%), they are not mentioned separately in the report.

4 Among respondents older than 54 years the 41% were illiterate (vs. 6% of 15-24 year-olds). Among those from rural areas and villages or suburbs between 16%-21% said they were illiterate, compared to 2% of large city dwellers. According to UNICEF statistics dating back to 2005-2008, the total adult literacy rate in Nepal was 58%. For every literate Nepalese man, there were 0.64 literate women. For more information, please see: http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/nepal_nepal_statistics.html#77


11

Nepalese found it easiest to formulate an opinion about the United States and China; about a fifth of

respondents gave a dont know response when asked about the US (19%) or China (20%); these fig-

ures were relatively low when compared to those for most of the South Asian countries (see above).

Similar shares of respondents held a favourable attitude towards China and the US (74% and 73%, re-

spectively); the proportions expressing a

rather negative opinion towards these world

powers were also of roughly the same size

(6% for China and 8% for the US).

Japan was the third most popular country

among the foreign powers listed in the

survey. About 7 in 10 Nepalese formulated

an opinion about this East Asian country;

among these respondents, 65% said they

viewed Japan rather positively and 4%

viewed it rather negatively. The relatively

high popularity of Japan might be explained

by the fact that Japan is one of the top do-

nors to Nepal and involved in every impor-

tant sector of the economy5.

The results for the three European countries Germany, France or the UK were fairly similar: roughly

half of respondents were able to answer the question and most of these respondents said they had a

rather positive opinion about these countries: Germany, France (both 46%) and the UK (44%). When

asked about the EU overall, fewer respondents answered (63% said they did not know) and, as such,

also fewer respondents selected the rather positive response (32% vs. 5% of rather negative re-

sponses).

Finally, less than half of respondents were able to give their opinion about Russia, with 31% viewing the

country rather positively and 9% rather negatively.

Differences between socio-demographic groups

As in the case of the previous question on opinions about neighbouring countries, socio-demographic

groups with lower literacy rates - women, respondents from rural areas and older respondents more

frequently gave a dont know response when asked about countries from other parts of the world.

Men, 15-24 year-olds and those with higher levels of education were the most likely to have a positive

image of China. For instance, 79% of 15-24 year-olds viewed their northern neighbour positively,

compared to 65%-66% of those older than 39 years; the shares of those selecting the rather negative

response were similar for both groups (7% for the 15-24 year-olds and 6% for those older than 39).

Men and respondents with secondary and tertiary education more often had a positive image of the

United States. However, due to the high shares of dont know responses for women, men were also

more inclined than women to say that they had a negative opinion of the US. For example, 77% of men

5 For more information, see the website of Japans embassy in

Nepal: http://www.np.emb-japan.go.jp/oda/general.html

74

73

65

46

46

44

32

31

6

8

4

4

5

5

5

9

21

19

31

50

50

51

63

60

China

United States

Japan

France

Germany

United Kingdom

European Union

Russia

Rather positive Rather negative DK/NA

Q7. And how about countries (or groups of countries) from other parts of the world do you have a rather positive or a rather

negative opinion about the following countries or groups?Base: all respondents

Opinions about various countries from other parts of the world


12

liked the US and 11% disliked it, compared to 69% and 6%, respectively, of women. The likeliness to

approve of the US decreased with age; for instance, while 78% of 15-24 year-olds had a favourable

view of the US, this share dropped to 59% among those older than 54 years.

In case of the EU, large differences were seen between groups who were able to voice an opinion and

those who were not. For example, 89% of illiterate respondents did not have an opinion about the EU,

compared to just 21% of respondents who had been to university. Furthermore, 58% of 15-24

year-olds did not know how to judge the EU, compared to 72% of respondents older than 54. Men,

15-24 year-olds, those with higher levels of education and large city dwellers were more inclined to

have a positive opinion about the EU.

4. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

4.1. Awareness of SAARC

The survey also investigated whether Nepalese were aware of the South Asian Association for Regional

Cooperation (SAARC). To this end, respondents were presented with a short description of the basic

features of the association and a list of its members:

Your country, together with other South Asian countries, has decided to establish closer political, eco-

nomic, technological, social, and cultural exchanges in the framework of the South Asian Association for

Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The members of the SAARC are Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,

Bhutan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan.

Following this definition, respondents were asked whether they had heard of SAARC; a majority of 57%

confirmed having heard about the association.

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

5731

12

Yes No DK/NA

Q8. Have you ever heard of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)?


Q9. Do you think Nepals SAARC membership is a good thing or a bad thing?

Base: those who aware of SAARC

Is Nepals SAARC membership a ?Have you heard of SAARC?

98

1

1

Good thing Bad thing

Neither good nor bad thing DK/NA

IF Y

ES

Men, 15-24 year-olds, students and those with the highest levels of education were the most knowl-

edgeable about SAARC. More precisely, 68% of men (vs. 47% of women) had heard of SAARC. Fur-


13

thermore, 72% of 15-24 year-olds (vs. 39%-49% of other age groups) and 89% of students (vs.

29%-66% of other occupational groups) said they had heard of SAARC. While just 10% of illiterate re-

spondents answered that they had heard about SAARC, this proportion increase to 97% for respon-

dents with the highest level of education.

Strikingly, almost all (98%) respondents who were aware of SAARC thought that Nepals membership

of the association was a good thing. All socio-demographic groups overwhelmingly welcomed Nepals

SAARC membership.

4.2. Nepalese being aware of SAARC more often had a positive view of

other South Asian countries

Interestingly, those respon-

dents who had heard of

SAARC (57% of all respon-

dents6) were more likely to

take a positive stance on any

of the other South Asian

countries, with the exception

of India.

In the case of India, those who

were not aware of SAARC

were basically as likely to view

the country positively as those

who had heard of the regional

association (85% vs. 86%).

Those aware of SAARC, how-

ever, were twice as likely to think positively of Bangladesh and the Maldives. However, it should be

noted that those who had heard of SAARC were also more likely to hold a negative view on other

South Asian countries, simply because higher shares of them answered the question.

5. Obstacles to - and advantages of - regional cooperation

5.1. Perceived obstacles to establishing closer regional ties

Next, respondents were presented with seven issues and were asked, for each, whether or not they

considered it to be an obstacle to a more intensive regional cooperation among the countries in South

Asia. Once again, many respondents found it difficult to evaluate whether certain matters were an ob-

stacle to interregional cooperation; the proportion of dont know responses ranged from 16% for

religious differences to 31% for existing trade regulations.

6 As has been shown in the previous section, almost all respondents who had heard of SAARC thought that

Nepals membership was a good thing (98%).

86

57 5751 52

3933

85

27 30 29 24 2618

India Bangladesh Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Pakistan Afghanistan

Heard of SAARC Have not heard of SAARC

Q6. Do you have a rather positive or a rather negative opinion about the following South Asian countries?

&Q8. Have you ever heard of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)?


Nepalese who have heard of SAARC had a more positive opinion about other South Asian countries


14

In the eyes of Nepalese, the two biggest obstacles to establishing a more intensive regional coopera-

tion among the countries in South Asia were the arms race between India and Pakistan (60% saw this as

an obstacle, while 10% said the opposite) and historic animosities (58% obstacle vs. 19% no obsta-

cle).

About half of Nepalese regarded

uneven economic development across

the region (53%) as an obstacle to

establishing a more intensive re-

gional cooperation. Languages dif-

ferences and religions differences

were also seen as obstacles by about

half of respondents (52% and 50%,

respectively). However, while about a

third of respondents thought that

the two last-named issues did not

form an obstacle to regional coop-

eration (32% and 34%, respectively),

this view was shared by only half as

many respondents when asked about

regionally uneven economic development (18% no obstacle).

A share of 45% of respondents thought that existing trade regulations would hamper closer regional

cooperation in South Asia, compared to 24% who believed the opposite. Finally, respondents were not

only the least likely to say that cultural differences were a barrier to regional cooperation (42%), they

were also the most likely to answer that such differences constituted no obstacle (40%).

Socio-demographic patterns

Once again, looking at differences among socio-demographic segments, the clearest pattern found

was that women, respondents from rural areas and villages, those with lower levels of education and

older respondents more frequently said they did not know whether a certain issue constituted an ob-

stacle to a stronger regional cooperation in South Asia.

Looking at the differences concerning the issue that was most frequently seen as an obstacle to further

regional integration i.e. the arms race between India and Pakistan, it was noted that men, respon-

dents living in large cities or suburbs, those with high levels of education and the youngest respon-

dents (15-24 years) were more inclined to say that this issue was an obstacle.

60

58

53

52

50

45

42

10

19

18

32

34

24

40

30

23

29

17

16

31

18

Arms race between India andPakistan

Historic animosities

Uneven economic developmentacross the region

Language differences

Religious differences

Existing trade regulations

Cultural differences

Obstacle Not an obstacle DK/NA

Q10. Would you say each of the following IS or IS NOT an obstacle in establishing a more intensive regional cooperation among the countries in South Asia (Nepal,

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan)?Base: all respondents

Obstacles in establishing a more intensive regional cooperation among the countries in South Asia


15

5.2. Importance of potential benefits of closer regional cooperation

In the next question,

respondents were pre-

sented with a list of six

potential benefits of re-

gional cooperation and

they were asked

whether they consid-

ered them important (or

not) for their own life.

Respondents appeared

to accept all benefits

listed in the survey as

being important: the

proportion of important responses ranged from 75% for better transport connections to

neighbouring countries and more respect for ethnic and cultural diversity when visiting neighbouring

countries to 86% for more job opportunities in this country.

For each of the potential benefits listed in the survey, the proportion of respondents who did not con-

sider it important for themselves remained below a fifth (between 8% and 15%). A similar observation

could be made for the proportions of dont know responses.

Results for socio-demographic groups

As in the case of previous questions, the same socio-demographic groups, i.e. those with low literacy

rates, more frequently had problems answering the questions about potential benefits of regional

cooperation. Focusing on the potential advantage of further regional integration that was most often

named as being important i.e. more job opportunities in this country, it was noted that those with low

levels of education less frequently said that this would be important for them. For example, 79% of il-

literate respondents found more job opportunities in Nepal important, compared to 91% of those with

secondary/higher secondary education and 98% of those who had been to university.

5.3 Differences between respondents who had heard of SAARC and those who had not

when evaluating potential hurdles and advantages of regional cooperation

Respondents who had heard of SAARC were considerably more inclined to see obstacles to South

Asian regional cooperation. The difference in the proportions seeing obstacles between respondents

who were aware of SAARC and those who were not ranged from 17 percentage points for language

differences to 37 points for the arms race between India and Pakistan. So in the latter case, 78% of

respondents who said they had heard of SAARC regarded this arms race as an obstacle to stronger

regional cooperation, compared to 41% of respondents being unaware of SAARC.

86

82

78

77

75

75

8

8

11

15

10

11

6

10

11

8

15

14

More job opportunities in this country

Cheaper imports

Better opportunities to export products

More job opportunities in neighbouring countries

More respect for ethnic and cultural diversity when visiting neighbouring countries

Better transport connections to neighbouring countries

Important Not important DK/NA

Q11. Is each of the following potential benefits of regional cooperation important or not important to you?


Importance of various potential benefits of regional cooperation


16

It should be noted, how-

ever, that those respon-

dents who said they had

heard of SAARC were also

more inclined to say that

each of the six issues was

not an obstacle to further

regional integration, sim-

ply because very high

shares among those un-

aware of SAARC could not

judge whether an item

constituted an obstacle or

not. For example, 12% of

those who had heard of

SAARC said that the arms

race between India and Pakistan was not an obstacle vs. 8% of those who were unaware of SAARC.

Another important finding of this Insights South Asia survey is that Nepalese who were aware of SAARC

(and therefore in most cases supported Nepals SAARC membership, as shown in chapter 4.1.) were

also more apt to find potential advantages of increased regional cooperation to be important; this was

true for all six possible benefits. The biggest differences were observed for better opportunities to

export products (86% of those being aware of SAARC found it important vs. 67% of those being un-

aware of the association), more respect for ethnic and cultural diversity when visiting neighbouring

countries (84% vs. 67%) and better transport connections to neighbouring countries (84% vs. 66%).

People unaware of SAARC, however, were not necessarily more likely to say that these potential bene-

fits were unimportant

for them, since many of

them did not know how

to answer the question.

For example, 23% of

those unaware of

SAARC did not answer

the question, compared

to 5% of those who had

heard of SAARC; across

both groups, 11% said

that more respect for

ethnic and cultural di-

versity when visiting

neighbouring countries

was not an important

benefit for them.

7868 65

59 58 5852

4147

39 42 3831 28

Arms racebetweenIndia andPakistan

Historicanimosities

Uneveneconomic

developmentacross the

region

Languagedifferences

Religiousdifferences

Existing traderegulations

Culturaldifferences

Obstacle - those who heard of SAARC

Obstacle - those who had not heard of SAARC

Q10. Would you say each of the following IS or IS NOT an obstacle in establishing a more intensive regional cooperation among the countries in South Asia (Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,

Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan)?&

Q8. Have you ever heard of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)?Base: all respondents

Respondents who had heard of SAARC more likely to see obstacles to cooperation

90 87 86 83 84 848277

67 70 67 66

More job opportunities in

this country

Cheaper imports Better opportunities to export products

More job opportunities in

neighbouring countries

More respect for ethnic and

cultural diversity when visiting neighbouring

countries

Better transport connections to neighbouring

countries

Important - people who had heard of SAARC Important - people who had not heard of SAARC

Q11. Is each of the following potential benefits of regional cooperation important or not important to you?

& Q8. Have you ever heard of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)?Base: all respondents

Nepalese aware of SAARC were more inclined to find potential benefits of regional cooperation important


17

6. Threats to the security of the South Asian region

6.1. Type of threats

Terrorism was seen as the greatest

threat to security in the South

Asian region 4 in 10 (40%) re-

spondents ranked it number one

from a list of six potential threats.

Crime was the second most often

mentioned security threat (men-

tioned by 20% of respondents).

Less than a tenth (8%) of respon-

dents thought that nuclear

weapons posed the greatest secu-

rity threat to the South Asian re-

gion and an equal number (8%)

said the same about rivalry between India and Pakistan. Finally, minorities mentioned religious funda-

mentalism (6%) and rivalry between India and China (4%). Virtually none (1%) of the respondents

spontaneously said that there was no major threat to security. A share of 14% said they did not know

what constituted the greatest threat to the regions security.

Across all socio-demographic groups, terrorism was seen as the number one threat to security in the

South Asian region. Furthermore, across almost all groups, crime followed in second place. Men, those

living in suburbs and those with average and high levels of education were overall the most likely to

mention terrorism. For example, 42%-49% of those with average and high levels of education named

terrorism, compared to 27%-35% of respondents without formal education or with primary education.

The latter groups, as well as those who spent 5-9 years in school, were more apt to mention crime as a

threat to security (20%-27% vs. 16% of those with a secondary/higher secondary or university education).

6.2. Countries posing a major threat to security

When asked which South Asian country posed the

greatest security threat to the South Asian region,

Pakistan ranked number one (selected by 28%). India

and Afghanistan were each mentioned by 12% of re-

spondents and 10% of Nepalese thought that Bhutan

constituted the greatest threat to the region. About a

third (34%) of respondents could not name the South

Asian country they considered as being the prime

menace to peace and security in the region. Across all

socio-demographic segments, Pakistan was seen as the

South Asian country that posed the greatest security

threat to the region.

40

20

8

8

6

4

1

0

14

Terrorism

Crime

Nuclear weapons

Rivalry between India and Pakistan

Religious fundamentalism

Rivalry between India and China

There is no major threat to the region's security

Other

DK/NA

Q19. Which of the following issues poses the greatest security threat to the South Asian region (Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan)?


Issues that pose the greatest security threat to the South Asian region

28

12

12

10

2

2

1

0

0

34

Pakistan

Afghanistan

India

Bhutan

Nepal

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Maldives

None

DK/NA

Q20. Which of the following South Asian countries poses the greatest security threat to

the South Asian region?Base: all respondents

South Asian countries that pose the greatest security threat to the South Asian region


18

7. Economy and living standards

7.1. Economic conditions today and major factors preventing better economic condi-

tions

A majority of Nepalese painted a bleak picture of their countrys economic conditions: the largest

proportion of respondents (41%) rated economic conditions in their country as poor, and a further 30%

as only fair. Just a handful of respondents said that economic conditions were excellent (3%) and

roughly a fifth (19%) considered them as good. Almost a tenth (8%) of respondents did not know how

to answer this question (or preferred not to answer).

Respondents who rated their countrys economic conditions as only fair or poor were presented

with a list of potential problems and were asked which of these were the two main problems prevent-

ing better economic conditions in Nepal.

A lack of political leadership and corruption were by far the most frequently mentioned factors preventing

economic growth in Nepal. Almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents who were dissatisfied with the cur-

rent economic conditions in Nepal said that a lack of political leadership was one of the two most im-

portant factors that prevented economic conditions to become better. Similarly, slightly less than 6 in 10

(58%) of these respondents held corruption responsible for the current bad economic situation.

Economic conditions in Nepal

3

19

30

41

8

Excellent Good

Only fair Poor

DK/NA

Q12. How would you rate the economic conditions in this country today?


Q13. Which of the following are the two main factors preventing better economic conditions in this country?

Base: those who considered economic conditions in Nepal to be only fair or poor

Which are the two main factors preventing better economic conditions?How would you rate

them?

47

22

14

4

3

6

1

1

17

36

7

11

12

5

5

3

64

58

21

15

15

11

6

4

0

1

1

Lack of political leadership

Corruption

Large population

Crime / Lack of security

Bad economic policies

Poorly qualified population

Lack of infrastructure

Environmental problems

Trade restrictions in South Asia

Other

DK/NA

first response second response in total

IF O

NL

Y F

AIR

O

R P

OO

R

About one in five (21%) respondents thought that Nepals large population was one of the main factors

negatively affecting economic conditions, followed by about one in seven (15%) respondents who

mentioned crime and a lack of security and the same proportion who selected bad economic policies.

About a tenth (11%) of respondents identified Nepals poorly qualified population as one of two major

problems; a lack of infrastructure and environmental problems were each selected by approximately 1

in 20 respondents (6% and 4%, respectively). Virtually nobody regarded trade restrictions as a major

brake on economic progress.


19

77

14

9 1

Improved

Stayed the same

Deteriorated

DK/NA

Development of familys standard of living over the past 5 years

D4 Over the past five years, has your familys standard of living improved, declined, or stayed about the same?


Respondents from rural areas, villages and suburbs, those with low and average living standards and

respondents with low levels of education were more likely than their counterparts to rate the current

economic conditions in their country as excellent or good. The gap was most pronounced across

the various educational groups: while 29%-33% of those without formal education considered the

present state of their economy as excellent or good, 13% of those with secondary/higher secondary

education and 5% of those who had been to university shared this view.

7.2. Current development of economic conditions

Although a majority of Nepalese evaluated their

countrys current economic conditions negatively,

they were more optimistic when answering a

question about future economic developments.

Almost half (45%) of respondents felt that the

economy in their country was getting better,

compared to 35% who said it was getting worse

and 12% who spontaneously answered that the

economic situation would remain the same. Fi-

nally, 8% did not answer this question.

Respondents living in rural areas and villages not

only more frequently rated economic conditions

in their country as positive, they were also more

likely to view the current development of Nepals economy positively. Large city dwellers gave a very

negative estimate of Nepals current economic development: 48% said that economic conditions were

deteriorating (vs. 33%-40% of respondents from villages, rural and suburban areas).

About one in two women (48% vs. 42% of men) said that economic conditions were getting better and

28% stated the opposite (vs. 43% of men). The youngest respondents (15-24 year-olds) assessment

was very positive: 52% said that the economic situation was currently improving and just 28% dis-

agreed. In comparison, just 36% of the oldest respondents (over 54) thought that economic conditions

were changing for the better and 45% believed that they changed for the worse.

7.3. Changing standards of living

In order to get an idea of how Nepals

economic development affects living

standards in the country, the survey asked

whether respondents felt that that their

familys standard of living had improved or

deteriorated over the past five years.

About three-quarters (77%) of Nepalese

had seen an improvement in their stan-

dard of living in the past five years. About

1 in 10 (9%) reported that their familys

Current development of economic conditions in Nepal

Q14. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in this country, as a whole, are getting better or getting worse?


45

12

35

8

Getting better

The same

Getting worse

DK/NA


20

standard of living had deteriorated in

the time frame and 14% felt it had

stayed the same.

As a next step, respondents were asked

about the current development of their

familys standard of living. About 8 in

10 (79%) Nepalese said that their fam-

ilys standard of living was getting bet-

ter, compared to 11% who said that it

was getting worse. A similar proportion

(9%) said that their standard of living

was staying the same.

The younger the respondents, the more positive they were about the past and current development of

their familys standard of living. For example, at the time of the interview, 83% of the 15-24 year-olds

felt that their familys living standards were changing for the better, compared to 70% of over 54

year-olds.

The various educational groups differed mostly concerning their evaluations of the development of

their familys standard of living over the past five years. Respondents without formal education and

those with primary education were less likely than those with secondary or tertiary education to have

seen an improvement in their standard of living in the past five years (66%-70% vs. 79%-87%). Re-

spondents with a low level of education more frequently stated that their familys standard of living

had declined (13%-15% vs. 4%-6% of the latter group).

Respondents were also asked to rate their familys current living standards on a scale from 1-7, where 1

means a poor family and 7 means a rich family. Those who ranked their standard of living to be be-

tween 4-7 were considerably more likely to say that their familys living standards had improved over

the past five years (82% vs. 71%-75% of those who rated their living standards to lie between 1-3). In

addition, those already comparatively well-off more frequently said that their current situation was

improving (88% vs. 71%-76%).

7.4. Other countries impact on the Nepal-

ese economy

A slim majority (53%) of Nepalese thought that, of all

the South Asian countries, India had the biggest im-

pact on their countrys economy. Pakistan was men-

tioned by 6% of respondents and Afghanistan by 2%;

the other five South Asian countries were named by a

mere handful of respondents. These results perfectly

mirror the actual economic realities: Nepal pegs its

currency to the Indian rupee and India is Nepals big-

gest trading partner and source of foreign investment.

It should be noted again that many respondents found

it difficult to answer this question (37% of dont know

53

6

2

1

1

0.3

0.2

37

India

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

Maldives

Sri Lanka

DK/NA

Q16. Which of the following South Asian countries has the biggest impact on your country's economy?


South Asian countries having the biggest impact on Nepals economy

79

9

111

Getting better

Staying about thesameGetting worse

DK/NA

Current development of familys standard of living

D5 Right now, do you think that your familys standard of living is getting better or getting worse?



21

responses).

When asked whether there was another country that had an even bigger impact on Nepals economy,

about 4 in 10 of those interviewees who had named a South Asian state that they regarded as having

the biggest impact on Nepals economy mentioned another country (39% of 629 respondents; n= 243).

Out of these, 39% named China (9% of all respondents). Readers should bear in mind, however, that

Nepalese respondents were more than five times as likely to mention India as having the biggest im-

pact on their economy than they were to mention China. The United States was regarded as having the

largest economic impact on Nepal by 21% of respondents (5% of the total), this country was followed

by Japan (11%, 3% of the total).

Other countries that have an even bigger impact on Nepals economy

39

42

19

Yes No DK/NA

Q17A. Do you think there is another country in the world, other than (response in Q16), that has an even

bigger impact on your countrys economy?Base: those who mentioned a South Asian country which

has the biggest impact on your Nepal's economy

Q17B. Which one? If there is more than one country, please name the one that you think has the biggest impact overall.

Base: those who thought there was another country in the world that has an even bigger impact on Nepals economy

39

21

11

10

7

4

2

2

1

1

1

0.2

0.1

0.1

China

United States

Japan

Pakistan

Bangladesh

India

Afghanistan

Bhutan

Sri Lanka

Germany

Iraq

United Arab Emirates

Maldives

United Kingdom

Which one?Is there such country?

IF Y

ES

Women, respondents with low levels of education, those living in rural areas, villages or suburbs and

older respondents more frequently found it difficult to assess which country had the biggest impact on

their countrys economy. Nonetheless, across all socio-demographic groups (among those answering

the question), the largest proportion of respondents thought that, of all the South Asian countries, In-

dia had the biggest impact on their countrys economy.


22

8. Migration

More than two-thirds (69%) of Nepalese wanted to continue living in their country, while 31% would

like to move temporarily or permanently to another country.

Despite cultural, historical and economic ties with India, the United States was the most preferred des-

tination a third (33%) of Nepalese who would like to resettle somewhere else, named the United

States as their destination of choice (11% of all respondents). India was the second most popular des-

tination, with 20% of would-be migrants naming this country (6% of all respondents).

A tenth of would-be migrants would like to move temporarily or permanently to Japan. Other destina-

tions named in this context were the United Arab Emirates (named by 5% of respondents who would

like to move), Malaysia, the United Kingdom and Australia (all mentioned by 3% of would-be migrants).

Migration

3169

1

Yes, would move

No, would not move

DK/NA

Q18A. Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move temporarily or permanently to another country,

or would you prefer to continue living in this country?Base: all respondents

Note: only countries mentioned by at least 1% of respondents are shown

Q18B. To which country would you ideally go?Base: those who would move to another country

if they had the opportunity

33

20

10

5

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

5

United States

India

Japan

United Arab Emirates

Malaysia

United Kingdom

Australia

Qatar

Canada

China

Saudi Arabia

North Korea

Hong Kong

Maldives

Sri Lanka

DK/NA

To which country?Would you like to move?

IF Y

ES

Looking at the socio-demographics of potential migrants, the survey found that the typical would-be

migrant was male, young, lives in a large city and has enjoyed at least basic education. In Nepal, 38% of

men (vs. 24% of women), 39% of large city dwellers (vs. 28%-31% or respondents from rural areas, vil-

lages or suburbs), 35% of the 15-24 year-olds (vs. 30% of 25-39 year-olds, 26% of 40-54 year-olds and

18% of those older than 54) and 40% of respondents with a university education (vs. 13%-21% of those

without formal education and 33%-36% of those with primary or secondary/ higher secondary educa-

tion) said they would like to move temporarily or permanently to another country. The United States

was the most preferred destination for most socio-demographic groups, with the exception of those

with low levels of education who favoured India over the US.


23

9. Domestic issues

9.1. Preferred role of religion in the political system

In the summer of 2011, Nepalese politicians

were still trying to reach a compromise in

drafting a new constitution. However, after

three years of discussion, such a compromise

still seemed out of reach at the time of the

surveys fieldwork.

If Nepalese would be given a choice between

a secular democracy or a Hindu democracy,

the majority (63%) would prefer the latter,

while a third (34%) would favour the former.

Given that, until a few years ago, Nepal was

the worlds last constitutionally declared

Hindu state (the Nepali Parliament amended

the constitution in 2006), this result might not come as a surprise. According to the 2001 census, 81%

of Nepalese were Hindu, 11% were Buddhist, 4% were Muslim, and 4% were Kirat (an indigenous re-

ligion with Hindu influence) and 1% were Christian.

A comparison across the various socio-demographic groups revealed large differences in the answers

to this question. While most groups were in favour of a Hindu democracy, large city dwellers, those

living in suburbs and those with a university education said they would prefer a secular democracy. For

example, while 54% of those with the highest level of education would chose a secular democracy, this

share was 20%-25% among those without formal education. Interestingly, even among the youngest

respondents (15-24 years), a majority was in favour of a Hindu democracy (58% vs. 40% who preferred

a secular democracy).

9.2. Acceptance of violence as a means to resolving conflicts

A vast majority (81%) of Nepalese disagreed that the

use of violence was an accepted means of resolving

conflicts in their country nowadays, compared to 10%

of respondents who held an opposite view i.e. that

the use of violence was still accepted and 9% who

did not answer. This finding is of major importance in

a country that was plagued by a civil war that lasted

from 1996 to 2006 and where violent protests and

bomb attacks still pose threats to security.

Vast majorities among all socio-demographic seg-

ments disagreed that the use of violence was still an

accepted means of resolving conflicts within Nepal.

The oldest respondents (over 54) were clearly less in-

clined to disagree with the statement (69% vs.

Preferred type of democracy

Q14B. If you were given a choice between a secular democracy or a Hindu democracy in your country, which one would you prefer?


34

63

03

Secular democracy

Hindu democracy

No preference

DK/NA

Is the use of violence an accepted means of resolving conflicts in Nepal?

Q15. Is the use of violence an accepted means of resolving conflicts within your country nowadays?


10

81

19

Yes

No

Depends

DK/NA


24

79%-85%). Furthermore, those without formal education and those with primary education were less

likely to say that the use of violence was unacceptable (64%-78% vs. 86%-87% of those with average

and high levels of education).

9.3. Fight against corruption

A slim majority (54%) of Nepalese thought that

their government was not doing enough to fight

corruption, while 3 in 10 (30%) were satisfied with

their governments efforts in this regard. A share of

16% was not able to evaluate their governments

fight against corruption (or preferred not to an-

swer).

Across most socio-demographic segments, a ma-

jority of respondents said that the national gov-

ernment was not doing enough to fight corrup-

tion. Men, large city dwellers, employees and the

most educated were especially dissatisfied with the

governments efforts. For instance, 8 in 10 (80%)

respondents who had been to university as op-

posed to a third (33%) of illiterate respondents were critical about their governments fight against

corruption. The youngest respondents (15-24 year-olds) more frequently than their older counterparts

said that the government was doing enough to fight corruption (36% vs. 20%-25%).

Conclusions

Insights South Asias Nepal survey revealed three major things. First, some results yield hopes that

Nepal is heading for a more prosperous and peaceful future. Secondly, India has a huge impact on the

country. Thirdly, Nepalese are ready for stronger regional cooperation.

Despite being rather negative about the current economic conditions for which respondents mostly

blamed the lack of political leadership and corruption, respondents economic outlook as well as their

assessment of the current development of their familys living standards were rather optimistic.

Moreover, the low level of acceptance of violence as a means to resolve conflicts is of major impor-

tance for a country that suffered so much hardship during the long civil war that rocked the country in

the recent past. The latest handover of weapons by former Maoist rebels underlines this dominant view

that violence is not acceptable to settle conflicts and is one of many necessary steps towards a brighter

future for the Nepalese people.

The enormous importance of India for Nepal surfaced at several stages of the survey. Nepalese were

by far more likely to have friends or relatives in India than anywhere else in South Asia and if they

travelled in South Asia they most likely had visited their neighbouring country in the South. A majority

of interviewees also thought that India had the biggest economic impact on their country. Some re-

spondents felt that China played an even bigger role in this respect, mirroring the latest Chinese in-

Is the national government doing enough to fight corruption?

Q22. Do you think the government of your country is doing enough to fight corruption, or not?


30

54

16

Yes, doingenough

No, not doingenough

DK/NA


25

terests to invest in hydropower projects and telecoms. Nevertheless, Nepalese respondents were more

than five times as likely to mention India as having the biggest impact on their economy than they

were to mention China. Interestingly, despite the fact that India was the most popular and most visited

South Asian country, as well as being regarded as the most economically influential country, it was not

the top destination for Nepalese if they were free to choose where to move temporarily or perma-

nently the appeal of the United States was considerably larger.

Nepalese were enthusiastic about the prospects of forging closer regional ties in South Asia. Almost

every survey participants who had heard of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

(SAARC) felt that Nepals membership of this association was a good thing. Vast majorities believed

that potential advantages of regional cooperation such as more jobs, cheaper imports and better pos-

sibilities to export products will be important for them.

Yet, most Nepalese realised that achieving SAARCs goals will be anything but easy. The arms race

between India and Pakistan as well as historic animosities were most often seen as constituting obsta-

cles to establishing a more intensive regional cooperation among the countries in South Asia. In addi-

tion, Pakistan was most often viewed as posing the greatest security threat to the South Asian region. It

is clear that South Asian leaders, especially those from New Delhi and Islamabad, will have to step up

efforts to deal with these problems, as well as to reduce the threat to security posed by terrorism and

crime, which were perceived as the major dangers to the regions security.

Help and assistance to tackle difficult issues from other parts of the world such as China, the United

States, Japan and Europe would probably be welcomed by the Nepalese people. As the survey has

shown, these foreign powers were mostly seen in a positive light by respondents offering their views.

Finally, one of the most important findings that calls for further evidence-based research in the South

Asian region was that public opinion on India was overwhelmingly positive, with 84% of Nepalese

having a favourable view of their giant southern neighbour. India was by far the most popular country

among Nepalese with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and the Maldives being viewed positively by only

half as many respondents.

This finding is in stark contrast to a leading article in The Economist, which claimed that Indias rela-

tions with the countries that ring it are abysmal. Nepalese would resent India for having meddled

madly in Nepals internal affairs in the past7. The importance of a positive image of neighbouring

countries cannot be overstated when investigating the prospects for increased cooperation in the re-

gion. Therefore, getting the right picture of the actual situation is paramount. This is exactly what In-

sights South Asias aims to do - providing more reliable data from this fascinating and diverse region

that is needed in order to be able to assess the chances of more regional integration and to highlight

peoples hopes and worries in this regard.

7 The Economist, July 30th 2011, from the print edition: India and its near-abroad. New humility for the he-

gemon. Too slowly, India is realising that poor relations with its South Asian neighbours hold back its global ambitions, http://www.economist.com/node/21524872


26

Focus on youth

For most questions of this survey, the youngest respondents (15-24 year-olds) found it easier to give

an answer; the reason for this seems obvious. Literacy rates among the Nepalese youth were much

higher than among older respondents8. As the Insights South Asia survey found, 6% of 15-24 year-old

Nepalese reported to be illiterate (vs. 16% of 25-39 year-olds, 29% of 40-54 year-olds and 41% of re-

spondents older than 54) and 4% said they were literate but had not enjoyed formal education (vs. 14%

of both 25-39 year-olds and 40-54 year-olds and 18% of those older than 54).

The survey found that the Nepalese youth was more optimistic than older generations about their

countrys future as well as their personal futures. While slightly more than half (52%) of 15-24 year-olds

said that the economic situation in Nepal was currently improving, just 36% of the oldest respondents

(over 54) felt this way. Furthermore, more than 8 in 10 (83%) of 15-24 year-olds felt that their familys

living standards were changing for the better at the time of the interview, compared to 70% of over 54

year-olds. Despite this optimism, 15-24 year-olds were twice as likely as over 54 year-olds to say that

they would like to move abroad (35% vs. 18%)

Young Nepalese more often had a positive opinion about other South Asian countries and countries

from other parts of the world. For example, 51% of 15-24 year-olds viewed the United Kingdom posi-

tively, compared to 32%-40% across other age groups. In addition, young people were considerably

more likely to have heard of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) (72% vs.

38%-49% across other age groups). Young people were, however, also more likely to see obstacles to

regional cooperation this was the case for all six issues listed in the survey. For instance, 58% of 15-24

year-olds considered language differences as an obstacle to closer regional ties, compared to

35%-49% across other age groups.

Young Nepalese regarded terrorism as the number one threat to South Asian security, followed by

crime. Respondents aged 15-24 were more inclined to see India as posing a security threat to the

South Asian region (17% vs. 7%-9% of other age groups). Yet, as all other age groups, young people

considered Pakistan to be overall the biggest danger for the regions security.

A clear majority (58%) among the 15-24 year-olds would prefer Hindu democracy over a secular de-

mocracy (40%) if they were given the choice. Compared to older respondents, however, they were the

least likely to want a Hindu democracy and the most inclined to call for a secular democracy. The sur-

vey clearly showed that the older the respondent, the more apt he or she was to favour a type of de-

mocracy based on Hindu principles: 58% among the 15-34 year-olds, 65% among 25-39 year-olds,

69% among 40-54 year-olds and 73% among those older than 54 years.

The youngest respondents were not more liable than older respondents to reject the use of violence to

resolve conflicts. Only between the oldest respondents and all other age groups a meaningful differ-

ence was seen in that 69% of those older than 54 years said that violence was an unacceptable means

to resolve conflicts compared to 79%-86% of other age groups.

8 According to UNICEF statistics dating back to 2004-2008, the youth literacy rate (15-24 years) for Nepa-

lese males was 86%; and 75% for females, for more information see: http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/nepal_nepal_statistics.html#77


27

Interestingly, the youngest respondents (15-24 year-olds) were more often satisfied with the govern-

ments fight against corruption than older respondents (36% vs. 20%-26%).

Finally, when comparing different issues that were important to respondents personal lives, the

youngest respondents placed most importance on education (67% vs. 35%-57% of other age groups).

The youngest were comparatively less inclined to mention work and religion/spirituality when com-

pared with older respondents.


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Methodology

For this Insights South Asia survey Gallup conducted 1,000 face-to-face interviews, in the respondents

homes in all parts of Nepal. On average, the face-to-face interviews lasted 23 minutes. Gallup was en-

tirely responsible for the management, design, and control of the survey.

For over 75 years, Gallup has been providing information in an objective, reliable, and scientifi-

cally-grounded manner. Gallup is not associated with any political orientation, party, or advocacy

group and does not accept partisan entities as clients. The identities of all surveyed respondents will

remain confidential.

Question design

The questions of the survey have been developed in close cooperation with the South Asia Democratic

Forum, SADF.

Translation

The questionnaire was developed in English and then translated into Nepalese by a person proficient in

both the original and target language. An independent review by a professional translation company

confirmed that the questionnaire was translated correctly.

Interviewers

Gallup selects its interviewers based on experience in survey research studies and conducts in-depth

training sessions with local field staff prior to the start of data collection. A training manual is also pro-

vided to assist the fieldwork team and to ensure consistency and a structured approach.

Sampling and data collection methodology

Population estimates are based on data from the latest censuses, key statistics and migration data, as

well as on local institutions population and household estimates.

All samples are probability-based and nationally representative of the resident population aged 15 and

above. The coverage area is the entire country including rural areas and the sampling frame represents

the entire civilian population of the abovementioned age group.

The sample type used is a stratified three-staged probability sample, with 125 primary sampling units,

randomly selected in a proportional manner with post-stratification weighting to reflect true popula-

tion proportions. The three stages are the following:

First, polling station areas are selected randomly (with a methodology called probabilities proportional

to size, PPS), being approximately the size of 200 households, serving as Primary Sampling Units

(PSUs) for the national samples. The sample is allocated in fixed-size clusters (typically 8 interviews per

PSU) across the sampled polling station areas.

Second, households are selected with the help of a standard random route technique starting from a

randomly selected landmark within the polling station area. Unless an outright refusal occurs, inter-

viewers make up to three attempts to survey the sampled household. To increase the probability of

contact and completion, attempts to contact the household or the eligible respondent are made at


29

different times of the day, and where possible on different days. If an interview cannot be obtained at

the initially targeted household, a simple substitution method is used.

As a last step, respondents are randomly selected within the selected households. If someone answers

the door, the selection is performed based on the so-called Kish-grid. Thus, interviewers select the re-

spondents with equal probability within households.

The person interviewed must be:

Aged 15 or older

A permanent resident of the household (he/she only has to live there, we do not care whether

he/she is administratively registered as living elsewhere)

The only household member interviewed

Interviewed individually without disturbances or suggestions from anyone else.

There may be cases of severe physical handicap, mental disorder, or senility, which will prevent the

respondent from being able to take part in the interview.

Detailed sample allocation

Eastern Region 234

Central Region 346

Western Region 198

Mid-Western Region 128

Far-Western Region 94

NEPAL Total 1000

Data weighting

Data weighting is used to ensure a nationally-representative sample for each country. First, design

weights are constructed to account for disproportional sampling across regions and for the unequal

sampling probabilities of individuals as a function of the household size, as residents in large house-

holds will have a lower probability of being selected for the sample. Second, post-stratification weights

are constructed. Population statistics and reliable consensual estimates are used to weight the data (by

region, gender, age, education, economic activity or socioeconomic status).

Quality control

In 40% of the interviews, the interviewer was accompanied by a supervisor. Quality control back-checks

(in person, by telephone or by post) were carried out and documented in a pre-specified form covering


30

12% of respondents. Quality control back-checks of respondents involved a short interview with the

respondent (whether by telephone or in person).

Margin of error

The design effect adjusted margin of error is calculated around reported proportions for each coun-

try-level data set, assuming a 95% confidence level. The survey results are only valid between the limits

of a statistical margin caused by the sampling process. This margin varies based on three factors:

The sample size (or the size of the analysed part in the sample): the greater the number of

respondents, then the smaller the statistical margin will be;

The result in itself: the closer the result approaches 50%, the wider the statistical margin will be;

The desired degree of confidence: the more strict we are, the wider the statistical margin will

be.

The following example illustrates the principle:

One question has been answered by 1,000 people;

The analysed result is around 50%;

We choose a significance level of 95 % (this is the level most often used by statisticians).

In this illustrative case, the design effect adjusted margin of error is: (+/- 3.9%) around the observed

50%. As a conclusion: the result for the whole population lies between 46.1% and 53.9%.

With sample sizes of 1,000 respondents, the design effect adjusted margin of error for the Insights

South Asia survey is +/- 3.9%.

Fieldwork period

16 July 2011 7 August 2011


31

About SADF


32

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