institute for mobility research a research establishment of 1 institute for mobility research...
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Institute for Mobility Research
A Research Establishment of
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Institute forMobility Research
12.09.2012 |
The Future of Mobility
Meeting at JRC Ispra
Dr. Irene Feige
Institute for Mobility Research
A Research Establishment of
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The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo)
Founded in 1998.
Part of BMW Group.
Independent Board of Trustees ensures independence and neutrality.
Objective (extract from the institute‘s guidelines from 1998):
„ … is to analyze the society‘s needs in terms of mobility taking into account ecologic, social, economic and technological aspects in order to be able to promote a responsible design and organization of mobility.“
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Objective: Identification of long-term challenges for passenger transport
By taking a holistic perspective:
all modes of transportation
framework conditions for transport (infrastructure, transport policy)
context (economy, demography, ecology, technology)
“We overestimate the pace of progress near term and underestimate progress long term”Bill Gates
The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo)
Institute for Mobility Research
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ifmo Board
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ifmo Scenario Studies: The Future of Mobility
Objective: Determination of a consistent and comprehensive picture of the future of mobility for the next 20 year
Countries:– Germany (latest study published in 2010)– USA (study in progress)– BRIC countries (studies planned for the future)
Object of investigation:– All influencing fields determining the mobility of the future– All modes of transport with a focus on motorized individual mobility– Passenger and freight transport
Method: Scenario techniques with strong involvement of experts Data analysis: Desk research, workshops and scenario tool support
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ifmo Project: Changes in Young People‘s Mobility Patterns
Research Questions: Is there long term empirical
evidence for a change in young people’s mobility behavior eg. reduction in car usage and drivers’ licenses?
What are the reasons behind these developments?
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ifmo Projects: Evolutionary Paths of Mobility Developments & Global Mobility Monitor Network
Evolutionary Paths of Mobility– Identify mobility patterns in
industrialized countries– Application of patterns to emerging
markets– Future projections for mobility
developments in emerging markets Global Mobility Monitor Network
– Establish a network of experts in order to answer pressing questions on mobility in various countries.
– Collect and analysis comparable transportation data for those countries over the past 10 years
– Project future developments
GERMANY
USA
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ifmo Project: Mobility Cultures in Megacities
Objective: Understanding mobility patterns and cultures in Megacities, identifying challenges and developing strategies for the future of urban mobility.
“Mobility Cultures in Megacities”… …stands for dealing with complex mobility issues in large scale urban agglomerations.
Integral parts of the program:
a. Preliminary study for clustering cities worldwide.
b. Post-Doctoral Fellowship program for questions on mobilitybehavior and dynamics of change.
c. Summary of overall project outcomes published by Springer (2013).
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The year 2050:70% of world population will be living in urban areas
Quelle: Source: LSE Cities based on United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision
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Largest share of urban population in cities <500.000
Source: LSE Cities based on the UN World Urbanisation Prospects, the 2009 revision
Population by city size class (different shades for 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015)
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Relation between Air Quality, CO² Emissions and Wealth
Source: McGranahan et al 2001
Adverse relation between CO² emissions and wealth
Ambient air quality decreases up to a certain wealth and then increases steadily
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5
50
500
500 5000 50000
Den
sity
[per
sons
/ha]
GDP [US$ / person]
Hybrid
Auto
Non-motorized
Paratransit
Saturated
Transit
Period of mass motorization
Cities and Mobility: Trends and Trajectories
Transit
Hybrid
Auto
TrafficSaturated
Paratransit
Non-motorized
Beijing
Atlanta
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Potential for eco-industries in the mobility sector
Development stage of cities determines areas of potential for eco-industries
Traffic saturated cities: improvements in air quality and use of capacity of infrastructure are central (high demand for clean vehicle technologies, ITS technologies, improvements in public transport)
Hybrid and Auto cities: air quality levels are typically much better than in traffic saturated cities, but CO² emissions and use of energy need to be brought down (high demand for efficient vehicles, alternative engines, ITS technologies, improvements in public transport in auto cities, multimodal solutions)
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Thank you for your attention!Contact details
Institute for Mobility ResearchDr. Irene Feige+49 89 382 [email protected]
Institute for Mobility Research