INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY STUDIES (IDPS), VISAKHAPATNAM

EXTENDS A WARM WELCOME TO THIS PRESENTATION ON

CLIMATE CHANGE & IMPACT ON POVERTY

THIS IS A CONCEPT PRESENTATION ESSENTIALLY BASED ON PUBLISHED

WORKS OF VERY DISTINGUISHED AUTHORS AND THE EXTRACT ED

INFORMATION IS DULY ACKNOWLEDGED.

PROF. R V RAMA RAODIRECTOR, IDPS &

MEMBER, NTAG(JNNURM), GOI &MEMBER, PM’S MONITORING GROUP

NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE & CLIMATE CHANGE4TH ROUND TABLE MEET AT KOLKATA8TH APRIL’2011

A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE SCENARIOS IN THE COUNTRY IS PRESENTED

• OCCUPIES 2.4% (3.28 MILLION SQ. KM OF THE WORLDS LAND AREA BUT SUPPORT 16.2%

(MORE THAN 1 BILLION) OF THE WORLDS HUMAN POPULATION

• DIVERSE PHYSIOGRAPHIC FEATURES - HIMALAYAS, COASTAL AREAS, NORTHERN PLAINS,

PENINSULAR PLATEAU AND ISLANDS

• DOMINATING FEATURE OF CLIMATE IS THE MONSOON

• ENDOWED WITH VARIED CLIMATE, BIODIVERSITY AND ECOLOGICAL REGIONS (FOREST

COVER ABOUT 675.5 THOUSAND SQ KM

• 2/3 RD POPULATION DEPENDENT ON CLIMATE SENSITIVE SECTORS

• POVERTY RATIO AT NATIONAL POVERTY LINE ~ 28.6 % OF TOTAL POPULATION

• GDP GROWTH : 7% ANNUALLY (AVERAGE)

THE SCENARIO

• AGRICULTURAL LAND ~ 60.8% OF TOTAL LAND AREA

• CO2 EMISSIONS ~ 1. 2 T PER CAPITA

• ENERGY USE~ 508.8 KG OF OIL EQUIVALENT PER CAPITA

• GDP (CURRENT US$) ~ 691.2 BILLION

• GDP GROWTH : 8% ANNUALLY (AVERAGE)

THE SCENARIO (CONTD..)

Drought

Uncontrolled flooding

Salinity

WE HAVE ALSO THE LARGE AREAS OF THE COUNTRY WHICH ARE PRONE TO

DISASTERS

GROWTH TRENDS OF INDIAN ECONOMY

BY 2020 INDIA’S GDP IS LIKELY TO QUADRUPLE FROM THE CURRENT $ 1.1 TRILLION TO ABOUT $ 4.5 TRILLION

PER CAPITA INCOME FROM RS 50,000 TO RS 1,50,000

THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME OF MORE THAN RS 16 LACS WILL BE OVER 18 MILLION, WHILE NUMBER OF MIDDLE CLASS HOLDERS (1.5 TO 16 LACS) WOULD GROW BY 50% TO 180 MILLION

NUMBER OF DEPRIVED HOUSEHOLDERS – BELOW 1.5 LACS IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED BY 25% TO 180

INDIAN CONSUMPTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE 3.7 TIMES TO ABOUT 113 TRILLION WITH DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE LIKELY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

EDUCATION SECTOR TO GROW 5.7 TIMES 6

GROWTH TRENDS OF INDIAN ECONOMY (CONTD..)

DOMESTIC PHARMA AND HEALTH CARE- 6 TIMES

MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT 5 TIMES

ORGANISED RETAIL 6.3 TIMES

AUTOMOBILE SECTOR 4.8 TIMES

URBAN PREMIUM HOUSING 6.5 TIMES

BY 2020 EXPECTED SAVINGS -$ 1.4 TRILLION MORE THAN OUR CURRENT GDP

THE MASSIVE GROWTH IN SAVINGS WILL PROPEL

5.3 TIMES GROWTH IN BANKING

4.7 TIMES IN BROKING

5.7 TIMES IN ASSET MANAGEMENT AND 4.7 TIMES IN LIFE INSRANCE 7

THIS GROWTH TREND WOULD RESULT IN

EXECUTION OF PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS

HIGHER INCOME WOULD RESULT IN INFLATION AT GRASS ROOT LEVEL, AFFECTING LOWER INCOME POPULATION

EXCLUSION OF LOWER INCOME SEGMENTS IN THE GROWTH PATTERN

THE INCOME DISPARITY LEVELS WOULD BE AMONG THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE BOTTOM OF THE PYRAMID PARTICIPATES IN THE GROWTH PROCESS

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1. REDUCING THE POVERTY RATIO BY 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS BY 2007 AND BY 15 PERCENTAGE POINTS BY 2012

2. PROVIDING GAINFUL AND HIGH-QUALITY EMPLOYMENT TO THE LABOR FORCE

3. ALL CHILDREN IN SCHOOL BY 2003; ALL CHILDREN TO COMPLETE 5 YEARS OF SCHOOLING BY 2007

4. REDUCING GENDER GAPS IN LITERACY AND WAGE RATES BY AT LEAST 50 % BY 2007

5. RAISING THE LITERACY RATE TO 75% WITHIN THE 10TH PLAN

6. REDUCING THE DECADAL RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH BETWEEN 2001-2011 TO 16.2%

THE GOALS IN BLUE ARE MORE AMBITIOUS THAN CORRESPONDING MDGS

INDIA’S DEVELOPMENTAL GOALS…

INDIA’S DEVELOPMENTAL GOALS…

7. REDUCING THE INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR) TO 45 PER 1000 LIVE BIRTHS BY 2007 AND TO 28 BY 2012

8. REDUCING THE MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO (MMR) TO 2 PER 1000 LIVE BIRTHS BY 2007 AND TO 1 BY 2012

9. INCREASING THE FOREST AND TREE COVER TO 25 % BY 2007 AND 33 % BY 2007

10. ALL VILLAGES TO HAVE SUSTAINED ACCESS TO POTABLE DRINKING WATER BY 2007

11. ELECTRICITY FOR ALL BY 2012

12. CLEANING OF ALL MAJOR POLLUTED RIVERS BY 2007 AND OTHER NOTIFIED STRETCHES BY 2012

THE GOALS IN BLUE ARE MORE AMBITIOUS THAN CORRESPONDING MDGS

Population, GDP and Foodgrain Production

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006

Population

GDP

FoodgrainProduction

n u m b er o f p o o r p eo p le in m illio n s

2 4 7 2 3 9 2 3 42 0 1

2 3 6

5 3 6 5 7 0

6 7

7 8

0

3 5 0

1 9 7 1 1 9 8 1 1 9 9 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6

Urb a n

Ru ra l

Net availability of foodgrains per capita per day in gms

400

420

440

460

480

500

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Source: Report of Committee on Long Term Grain Policy, 2002

OF EVERY 100 INDIANS ... (%)

57 LIVE IN RURAL AREAS

44 DO NO HAVE ACCESS TO SAFE WATER

49 DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO DECENT SANITATION

28 HAVE HOUSEHOLD SIZE MORE THAN FIVE

43 HAVE LESS THAN PRIMARY EDUCATION

24 ARE ILLITERATE

44 WORK IN AGRICULTURE

60 WORK IN INFORMAL SECTOR

16 WORK AS UNPAID FAMILY WORKER

42 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT SECONDARY HIGH SCHOOL

36 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT ACCESS TO TELEPHONE

25 OF THOSE AGED BELOW FIVE ARE MALNOURISHED AND

32 WERE DELIVERED BY UNSKILLED MIDWIFE

A FEW INTERESTING STATISTICS ARE OF RELEVANCE

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BUT OF EVERY 100 POOR INDIANS… (%)

69 LIVE IN RURAL AREAS

52 DO NO HAVE ACCESS TO SAFE WATER

73 DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO DECENT SANITATION

48 HAVE HOUSEHOLD SIZE MORE THAN FIVE

55 HAVE LESS THAN PRIMARY EDUCATION

16 ARE ILLITERATE

64 WORK IN AGRICULTURE

75 WORK IN INFORMAL SECTOR

22 WORK AS UNPAID FAMILY WORKER

50 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT SECONDARY HIGH SCHOOL

49 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT ACCESS TO TELEPHONE

28 OF THOSE AGED BELOW FIVE ARE MALNOURISHED AND

47 WERE DELIVERED BY UNSKILLED MIDWIFE

A FEW INTERESTING STATISTICS ARE OF RELEVANCE (CONTD..)

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Quality of Human Resources

1. Food Needs 2. Health

3. Education

4. Work

5. Housing

6. Clean water7.Land

10. Participation

9. HumanSecurity

8. Natural resources

ONE SHOULD THUS ALSO REMEMBER, THAT ALL THESE ASPECTS LEAD TO THE VICIOUS CIRCLE AND LINKS OF POVERTY

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WORRYING ISSUES

• NEWS OF STARVATION DEATHS & FARMERS’ SUICIDES FROM MANY

STATES

• STAGNANT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AND FALLING FOOD

AVAILABILITY

• UNEMPLOYMENT HAS INCREASED FROM 4 TO 8% IN TEN YEARS

• REGIONAL DISPARITIES ARE INCREASING

• IMR STAGNATING AROUND 60 PER 1000, IT IS 46 IN BANGLADESH

• IMMUNISATION COVERAGE FELL FROM 60 TO 40% IN 5 YRS

• MORE THAN 50% WOMEN ARE ANEMIC

• 46% CHILDREN ARE MALNOURISHED

• DECLINING CHILD SEX RATIO DURING 1991-2001

• THERE IS NO WILL TO IMPROVE ADMINISTRATION IN POOR STATES

CHRONIC HUNGER AND STARVATION PERSIST IN LARGE SECTIONS OF

THE POPULATION.

THERE HAS BEEN A DECLINING CALORIE CONSUMPTION ESPECIALLY

IN THE BOTTOM 30% OF THE POPULATION.

THERE IS A CLEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PREVALENCE OF RAINFED RICE AND THE LEVEL OF POVERTY.

THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF POVERTY - INDIVIDUAL LEVEL

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Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s

Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)

: Large changes during non-monsoon months

No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days

Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day

Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

LET US NOW BRIEFLY EXAMINE THE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages

KEY VULNERABLE RIVER BASINS

DECREASE IN YIELD OF CROPS AS TEMPERATURE INCREASES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF INDIA - FOR EXAMPLE A A 2°C INCREASE IN MEAN AIR TEMPERATURE, RICE YIELDS COULD DECREASE BY ABOUT 0.75 TON/HECTARE IN THE HIGH YIELD AREAS AND BY ABOUT 0.06 TON/HECTARE IN THE LOW YIELD COASTAL REGIONS.

MAJOR IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BE ON RAIN FED CROPS (OTHER THAN RICE AND WHEAT), WHICH ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY 60% OF CROPLAND AREA. IN INDIA POOREST FARMERS PRACTICE RAIN FED AGRICULTURE.

THE LOSS IN FARM-LEVEL NET REVENUE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9 AND 25% FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF 2-3.5°C.

FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 1600 KG/HA TO BELOW 1400KG/HA, A DECLINE OF ABOUT 8.5% IN A SINGLE YEAR

VARIOUS ESTIMATES INCLUDING BY FAO SAY THAT INDIA COULD EXPERIENCE 18%-30% DECLINE IN FOOD PRODUCTION

AGRICULTURE

COASTAL ZONES

VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE INDIAN COAST DUE TO SLR

•SIMULATION MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL PARTICULARLY INTENSE EVENTS ARE PROJECTED DURING THE POST-MONSOON PERIOD

•SEA LEVEL RISE IS PROJECTED TO DISPLACE POPULATIONS IN COASTAL ZONES, INCREASE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, LOSS OF CROP YIELDS FROM INUNDATION AND SALINIZATION.

7500 km COAST LINE

30-10-2007 ดร. จิ�รพล สิ�นธุนาวา 27

A FEW FACTS FROM AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

70% OF INDIA’S POPULATION IS RURAL

AROUND 65% INDIANS ARE ENGAGED/EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE

OFFICIALLY,

27% - or 270 MILLION - INDIANS LIVE IN ABSOLUTE POVERTY

AROUND 200 MILLION POOR LIVE IN RURAL AREAS

PER CAPITA FOOD AVAILABILITY HAS DECLINED IN INDIA FROM 177 KG TO 155

KG ANNUALLY. 155 KG WAS THE PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY OF FOOD IN 1941,

THE YEAR OF THE BENGAL FAMINE

STARVATION DEATHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM VARIOUS PLACES IN INDIA

REPORTEDLY, ABOUT 1 MILLION FARMERS COMMITTED SUICIDE BETWEEN 1993-

2003

VULNERABILITY OF THE INDIAN COASTLINE

26% of Indian population live within 50km from the shoreline. Most of the coastal areas are low lying and vulnerable to oceanographic hazards like tsunamis, storm surges, sea level rise etc.

IDENTIFIED AREAS OF NATURAL HAZARD ALONG THE COASTLINE

SEA LEVEL RISE LEADING TO INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS WILL PLACE ABOUT 2.5 MILLION PEOPLE AT RISK IN THE STATES OF GOA AND MAHARASHTRA.

COST OF POTENTIAL DAMAGES TO BOMBAY, THE FINANCIAL CAPITAL OF INDIA, ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND EURO 40 BILLION

FORESTRY

77% AND 68% OF THE FORESTED GRIDS IN INDIA ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SHIFT IN FOREST TYPES

INDICATIONS SHOW A SHIFT TOWARDS WETTER FOREST TYPES IN THE NORTHEASTERN REGION AND DRIER FOREST TYPES IN THE NORTHWESTERN REGION IN THE ABSENCE OF HUMAN INFLUENCE.

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION AND CLIMATE WARMING COULD ALSO RESULT IN A 50 TO 70% INCREASE UNDER THE B2 SCENARIO

HEALTH

MALARIA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN MANY STATES AND NEW REGIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES MAY BECOME MALARIA-PRONE

THE DURATION OF THE MALARIA TRANSMISSION WINDOWS IS LIKELY TO WIDEN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN STATES AND SHORTEN IN SOUTHERN STATES.

ENDEMIC REGIONS OF

MALARIA

REGIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY MALARIA IN 2050S

A FEW STARTLINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

BANGALORE’S FUEL CONSUMPTION

BANGALORE HAS 27 LAKH VEHICLES ON THE ROADS THAT CONSUME 260

MILLION LITRES OF FUEL PER YEAR. FOR EVERY LITRE OF PETROL USED WE

RELEASE 2.3 KGS OF CO2 BANGALORE CO2 EMISSION ESTIMATE FROM ONLY

PRIVATE VEHICLES IS CLOSE TO 13,00,000,000 KGS OF CO2 PER YEAR. AVIATION

FUEL PER DAY : 1,200,000 LITRES. BROUGHT FROM CHENNAI IN TANKERS

 

INDIA’S CONSUMPTION OF POWER

INDIA’S CONSUMPTION OF POWER IN INDIA 67% OF OUR POWER COMES FROM

COAL POWER PLANTS FOR EVERY 1 MW OF COAL POWER USED 970 KGS OF CO2

IS RELEASED THEREFORE FOR EVERY 1 MW OF POWER USED 650 KGS OF CO2 IS

RELEASED IN 2004, BANGALORE’S PEAK USAGE WAS 1000 MW, EQUAL TO OVER

20 MILLION KGS OF CO2 RELEASED PER DAY.

• THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT HAS TARGETED AN 8% GDP GROWTH RATE PER ANNUM TO ACHIEVE ITS DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES

• IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THESE DEVELOPMENTAL ASPIRATIONS, SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION WILL BE NECESSARY AND COAL, BEING THE ABUNDANT DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCE, WOULD CONTINUE TO PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE.

INDIA NEEDS MORE ENERGY FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT

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SUGGESTED ACTION INITIATIVES

IDENTIFICATION OF ADOPTION TECHNOLOGIES AND MEASURES

WHICH ARE AREA SPECIFIC IN NATURE AS A MITIGATION MEASURES

AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE.

THE GDP GROWTH RATES RESULTING IN INCREASED FDI’S LEADING

TO MAJOR INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE & INDUSTRY SECTOR

SHOULD NOT LEAD TO INCREASE IN POVERTY LEVELS.

SPECIAL ACTION PROGRAMMES HAVE TO BE INITIATED AT MICRO

WATERSHED LEVELS ALL ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY IN

VULNERABLE DISTRICTS BASING ON SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECT

ENDEAVOURS.

JNNURM INITIATVES TO BE FOCUSED IN RELATION TO URBAN POOR

WITH INTEGRATION OF NATIONAL HEALTH MISSION, FOOD SECURITY

AND OCCUPATIONS.

GENERAL THEMES OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN URBAN AREAS

UNDERTAKE A RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE MUNICIPAL AREA TO IDENTIFY THE

MOST SIGNIFI CANT AREAS OF RISK AND TO ESTABLISH PRIORITIES

INCORPORATE POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTIONS INTO

STRATEGIC PLANNING WHERE APPROPRIATE.

NEW BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

WHERE PRACTICABLE, ADOPT CLIMATE SENSITIVE BUILDING DESIGN THAT

CONSIDERS LOCAL COOLING AND HEATING REQUIREMENTS

DESIGN BUILDINGS TO ALLOW FOR CONSIDERATION OF FUTURE CLIMATE

CHANGE IMPACTS AND INCORPORATION OF FUTURE ADAPTATION

EXISTING BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

MONITOR ANY CHANGES TO THE CONDITION IN STRUCTURES SO THAT ANY

MODIFICATIONS/RETROFITTING OCCURS ON TIME AND PRIOR TO FAILURE

GENERAL THEMES OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN URBAN AREAS (CONTD..)

IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS SHOULD THE EXISTING BUILDINGS AND

INFRASTRUCTURE BE IMPACTED UPON IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN SERVICES AND

CONNECTIONS, E.G. TO MINIMISE ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES DURING AN

ADVERSE STORM EVENT THAT PUTS THE INFRASTRUCTURE AT HIGHER RISK

DESIGN RETROFI TTING TO A HIGHER STANDARD THAN THE MINIMUM SET

WHERE POSSIBLE AND PRACTICAL

PROGRESSIVELY INCORPORATE HIGHER DESIGN STANDARDS INTO ASSET

MANAGEMENT PLANS AND ROLLING CAPITAL WORKS PROGRAMMES.

COMMUNITY HEALTH AND RECREATION

ESTABLISH THE LEVEL OF RISK TO THE COMMUNITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS TO ASSIST IN PRIORITISING POTENTIAL ADAPTATION ACTIONS

CONTROL PLANNING AND ACTIVITIES IN AREAS OF HIGH RISK

ENCOURAGE BUILDING DESIGN AND PUBLIC SPACES THAT PROVIDE IMPROVED

LEVELS OF THERMAL COMFORT AND SECURITY, E.G. PROTECTION DURING FL

OODS OR EXTREME WIND.

GENERAL THEMES OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN URBAN AREAS (CONTD..)

NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

ANALYSE THE RISKS FROM THE INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT, SUCH AS FL OOD

LIABILITY, STORM SURGE, SPECIES EXTINCTION, SECURITY OF WATER SUPPLY

REDUCE OTHER EXTERNAL STRESSES E.G. POLLUTION OR DEVELOPMENT.

IMPACTS ON MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG’S)

MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS) AND RELATED NATIONAL POVERTY ERADICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES. UNLESS CONCRETE AND URGENT STEPS ARE UNDERTAKEN TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY AND ENHANCE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF POOR PEOPLE, AND UNLESS THESE ACTIONS ARE INTEGRATED IN NATIONAL STRATEGIES FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MEET SOME MDGs by 2015

STRATEGIES TO STRENGTHEN CAPACITY TO COPE WITH CURRENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES AND TO ADAPT TO EXPECTED FUTURE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ARE MUTUALLY SUPPORTIVE AND WILL HAVE IMMEDIATE BENEFITS. THEY WILL ALSO HELP IDENTIFY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE POSITIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND INDULGENCE

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