institute of radiation protection conclusion of the 5 th eu framework projects bioclim and biomosa...
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Institute of Radiation Protection
Conclusion of the 5th EU Framework Projects BIOCLIM and BioMoSA for Performance
Assessments of Radioactive Waste
Disposals G. Pröhl
GSF-National Research Centre for Environment and Health, Neuherberg Germany
D. TexierANDRA – Agence Nationale pour la gestion des
Déchets Radioactif, France
EURADWASTE’04, Luxembourg, 31 March 2004
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Underlying problem• Radioactive waste needs to be isolated from the
environment and humans• Regulatory standards
– Adequate isolation of radioactive from biosphere and humans
– Limitation of possible radiological consequences due to hypothetical releases of radionuclides to the environment
• Demonstration of compliance • Biosphere changes with time: Impact of climate
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BioMoSABiosphere Models for Safety Assessment of
Radioactive Waste Disposal based on the Application of the Reference Biosphere Methodology
• 2-year EU 5th framework project• December 2001- November 2003• 6 participants
– GSF, Germany (Coordinator)– CIEMAT, Spain– NRPB, UK– SCK CEN, Belgium– Studsvik EcoSafe, Sweden– University Veszprem, Hungary
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
BIOCLIM
Modelling sequential BIOsphere systems under CLIMate change
for radioactive waste disposal
Objectives and scopes
D. Texier
ANDRA - Agence Nationale pour la gestion des Déchets Radioactifs, France.
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Objectives of BioMoSA• Development of site-specific biosphere models
for 5 sites in Europe using the BIOMASS Reference Biosphere Methodology
• Comparison of structure, results and uncertainties
• Development of a generic biosphere assessment tool
• Compare site-specific and generic models• Identify relevant site-specific and generic
features, events and processes
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BioMoSA – assumptions and endpoints• Assessment as realistic as possible• Present day conditions
– Technology, society, living habits
• Radionuclides (incl. daughters)– Cl-36, Se-79, Tc-99, I-129, Cs-135,
Ra-226, Pa-231, Np-237, U-238, Pu-239
• Time frame– 90 % of equilibrium in soil achieved
• Annual effective doses – infants and adults– Uncertainty of doses
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Sites considered• Hungary:
– Intensive agriculture– Cold winters, hot summers – Pronounced rain deficit during the vegetation period
• Spain– Extensive land use– Mild winters, hot and very dry summers
• Belgium, Germany – Intensive agriculture– Mild winters, cool summers– Low to moderate precipitation deficit
• Sweden– Extensive agriculture– Cold winters and cool summers, – Little precipitation deficit
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Geosphere Biosphere Interface
• Belgium: well, river
• Germany: well
• Hungary: well lake
• Spain: well, dam, river, sub-surface soil
• Sweden: well, lake, sub-surface soil
• Generic: all possible interfaces
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Example: Use of radioactively contaminated
well water: Exposure Pathways• Ingestion
– Drinking water for humans – Watering cattle– Irrigation of crops– Fish consumption
• Inhalation of contaminated dust• External exposure
– Contaminated arable land– Contaminated river/sediments
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• Model setup – Site-specific parameters
• Exposure / Activity in well/surface water – [Sv/a per Bq/m³]
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Normalized exposure to adults (mSv/a per Bq/m³)
1E-7
1E-6
1E-5
1E-4
1E-3
1E-2
No
rmalised
exp
osu
re
(mS
v/a
per
Bq
/m³)
Belgium
Spain
Germany
Hungary
Sweden
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Well scenario, stochastic calculations:Ratio 95/5-percentile of adult exposure
1
10
100
1000
Belgium
Espana
Germany
Hungary
Sweden
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Generic model• Development of a generic model
– Contains all FEPs– Contains all Geosphere-Biosphere-Interfaces
• Comparison against site-specific models
• Identification of important pathways
• Suggestions for model simplification
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German site, well scenario 5th and 95th percentile infant total dose
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
1.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.00E+00C
l-36
Se-7
9
Tc-
99
I-12
9
Cs-
135
Ra-
226
Pa-2
31
U-2
38
Np-
237
Pu-2
39
Tot
al d
ose
(mSv
)
Germany_nrpb 5%
Germany_nrpb 95%
Germany 5%
Germany 95%
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Conclusions I• Drinking water dominating• In general, little differences between sites• Uncertainty
– Ratio 95/5 percentile around a factor of 10
• Some parameters need reconsideration– Cl-36, Se-79, I-129
• Root uptake• Migration• Transfer to milk and meat• Parameters partly conflicting
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Conclusions II• Generic model provides acceptable
agreement with site-specific model• Larger uncertainties for releases to
– Lakes – Marine – Deep soil
• Transfer is more complex– More site-specific– More difficult to generalize– Poor data
BIOCLIM
http://www.andra.fr/bioclim
•A 3-years European project under the 5th Framework Program
• October 2000 - December 2003
• Coordinator : ANDRA
• 12 participants (UK, B, D, CZ, SP, FR)
•Technical Secretariat : ENVIROS Quantisci (UK)
• 5 Work Packages
• 13 deliverables : available on the project web site
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
BIOCLIM : Objectives
To provide a scientific basis and practical methodology
for assessing
the potential impacts of long-term climate change
on Biosphere characteristics
in the context of radiological Performance Assessments (PAs)
For 5 regions of interest in Europe
Over the next 1 million years
Quantitative scenarios of climate changes numerically produced
Narrative descriptions of future Biosphere changes (states + transitions)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
BIOCLIM : Regions of interest
Bure (48.6°N; 5.7°E)
Central England (51.6°-54.8°N; 0-2.8°W)
Toledo Area (38°-41°51’ N; 1°30’-6°30’ W)
Padul Peat Bog (37°N; 3°40 ’W)
Cullar-Baza Basin(37°20 ’-37°55 ’; 2°20 ’-2°50 ’W)
Czech Republic (48°55’N-49°28’N;
15°E-15°35’E)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
Representation of Biosphere Systems Changes: States and Transitions
Climate Biota Soils Human TopographyWater Bodies
Climate Biota Soils Human TopographyWater Bodies
Present day Biosphere
Future Biosphere
T1
T2
T3
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
BIOCLIM : Work Packages
WP1 : Consolidation of the Needs
WP2 : Hierarchical strategy = snapshots
WP3: Integrated strategy = sequences
Global scale
Regional scale
WP4 : Biosphere systems description (constant + transitional)
WP5 : Dissemination of results
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
Numerical Experimentsmore likely situations – not extreme
Transient sequences of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP3)
•The next 1000kyr (zoom on +200 kyr) for 3 different CO2 scenarios :• Scenario 1: natural CO2 variations only
• Scenarios 2 & 3: natural CO2 variations + Fossil Fuel Contribution
Snapshots of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP2) A very near future : high atmospheric [CO2] with or without ice sheets
• A super interglacial (67kyr AP) : high insolation, high atmospheric [CO2], no
ice sheets
• A glacial maximum (178kyr AP) : low [CO2] , large ice sheets
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
An example of climate scenario at regional scale :
The French natural climate evolution
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
Simulation of future climate evolution at global scale+
Reconstruction of past regional climate conditions
A4: Northeast France
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Time (ka AP)
Index Temperate oceanic
Climate classes :(Køppen/Trewartha classification)
Boreal
Periglacial
Toundra
DOWNSCALLING METHOD
Narrative descriptions offuture biosphere changes
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
• Descriptions of the potential next 200 ka biosphere system evolution developped for each region of interest.
• Possible impact of anthropogenic driven climate perturbation.•combined transient / •snap-shots climate simulations, and• the regional environmental paleo reconstructions.
• Future states of biosphere identified. Transitions between these states described.
• Importance of accounting for transition time laps discussed.
=> See BIOCLIM D10-12 report
Conclusions (1)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
• BIOCLIM provides a comprehensive methodology to integrate climate-driven environmental change to biosphere modelling of performance assessments
• BIOCLIM has provided many data for climate modelling for Europe – these may used as source if climate change should be included in performance assessments
• National organisations may complement these results with their own studies
• Several climate-change scenarios can be combined to give a number of biosphere states and transitions for analysis
Conclusions (2)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
• States and transitions provide an appropriate framework for developing structured descriptions of environmental change
• The BIOMASS methodology was found to be appropriate for characterising biosphere states
• State descriptions may be the basis for biosphere models
• Radiological evaluation of the states and transitions are needed by setting up appropriate simulation models
Conclusions (3)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
• More work remains to identify key aspects of transitions for performance assessment purposes and show their integration in assessment models
• This framework has been applied only to the biosphere – it would be equally applicable to the geosphere
• It would be useful to extend the methodology to include other human and Earth system processes that cause environmental change.
• Some aspects are being studied in the BIOPROTA Project
For more information, please contact :
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
http://www.andra.fr/bioclim
Delphine Texier, Andra, France (Co-ordinator of BIOCLIM and WP 1 & 5), [email protected]
Marie-France Loutre, UCL/ASTR, Belgium (Co-ordinator of WP2), [email protected]
Didier Paillard, CEA/LSCE, France (Co-ordinator of WP3), [email protected]
Paul Degnan, NIREX, UK (Co-ordinator of WP4), [email protected]