institute of transportation studies planning for growth: demographics, employment, housing, and...

Institute of Transportation Studies

Planning for Growth:Demographics, Employment,

Housing, and ResourcesThe Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection

October 14th – October 16th 2007

UCLA Extension Public Policy Program


Planning for Growth:Symposium Overview

Brian D. TaylorUCLA Institute of Transportation Studies

Symposium Co-Chair


The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium

• 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning– Transportation– Land use– Environment



• 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning– Transportation– Land use– Environment

• Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated



• 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning– Always interrelated, but all too often not well

integrated

• This year we examine four additional, critical topics



• 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning– Always interrelated, but all too often not well

integrated

• This year we examine four additional, critical topics– Demographics, employment, housing, and

resources


A challenging agenda

• Covering so many topical areas and their interrelationships allows for a more holistic exploration of growth and the quality of life



• Covering so many topical areas and their interrelationships allows for a more holistic exploration of growth and the quality of life

• But at the price of covering each of these important topics in less depth than they otherwise deserve



• Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics



• Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics– Not to mention environmental issues, land use,

or transportation



• Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics– Not to mention environmental issues, land use,

or transportation

• But the signature of the Arrowhead series is our focus on the linkages among these substantive areas of policy


LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature

• Linkages among…– Research and practice



• Linkages among…– Research and practice– Ideas and action



• Linkages among…– Research and practice– Ideas and action– Public and private sectors



• Linkages among…– Research and practice– Ideas and action– Public and private sectors– Markets and regulation



• Linkages among…– Research and practice– Ideas and action– Public and private sectors– Markets and regulation– Local and global



• Linkages among…– Research and practice– Ideas and action– Public and private sectors– Markets and regulation– Local and global– Development and conservation



• Linkages among…– Research and practice– Ideas and action– Public and private sectors– Markets and regulation– Local and global– Development and conservation– Transportation, land use, and environment


Our Game Plan:This session

• Global economic changes, local effects

– The future of local employment, trade, and travel in an increasingly global economy

• Roger Stough, George Mason University

– Panel Discussion• Gloria Jeff, Transportation Professional• Randall Lewis, Lewis Operating Corporation• Scott Moore, Union Pacific Railroad


Our Game planThis Afternoon

• Exploring the land use and transportation implications of population growth and change in California and the West

– Understanding population growth amidst environmental constraints: Who will be the new residents, and where will they live and work?

• Dowell Meyers, USC

– Planning for the travel needs of growing youth and aging population

• Noreen McDonald, University of Virginia

– Immigrants, location, and travel in California: Do the biggest impacts lie ahead?

• Evelyn Blumenberg, UCLA


Our Game planThis Evening

• Visioning Alternative Growth Futures: What (may) Lay Ahead?

– How much land? How much housing? Forecasting the impacts of alternative futures of urban growth in U.S.

• John Landis, University of Pennsylvania

– Visioning alternative futures in the Sacramento region

• Mike McKeever, SACOG


Our Game planTomorrow Morning

• Thirst for Growth: Water Politics and Policy

– Panel Discussion on Watering the West: The future of water supply in growing, drought-prone regions – implications for transportation, land use, and the environment

• John Wise, formerly of the US EPA• Tim Quinn, Association of California Water Agencies• Spreck Rosekrans, Environmental Defense


Our Game planTomorrow, Late Morning

• Powering Growth: Environmental constraints on electrical power production in the years ahead

– On the grid: Planning future power generation to accommodate growth

• Frank Wolak, Stanford University

– Green growth, green policy I: Innovative efforts to develop sustainable energy production around the globe

• Honorable Debbie Cook, City of Huntington Beach

– Green growth, green policy II: Local efforts to increase energy efficiency and conservation in the West

• Walker Wells, Global Green


Our Game planTomorrow Afternoon

• Housing Markets in California and the West: Supply, Demand, and Prices

– The markets for housing and trends in housing production: What’s ahead?

• Steve Cauley, UCLA

– The role of regulation in affecting housing supply and prices: Part of the solution, or part of the problem, or both?

• Marlon Boarnet, UC Irvine

– School quality and housing choices: What are the links?• Ariel Bierbaum, UC Berkeley

– What is and can be done to make housing more affordable to more people?

• Victoria Basolo, UC Irvine


Our Game planTomorrow Evening

• Planning for Affordable, Sustainable, Housing

– Intergovernmental Planning for Housing• Linda Wheaton, California Department of Housing &

Community Development

– Green building techniques and codes: What are the trends, what have been the effects?

• Brian Gitt, Build It Green

– The future of housing in California: A Developer’s Perspective

• Andrew Henderson, BIA of Southern California


Our Game planTuesday Morning

• Planning for (and coping with) Growth

– The future of high-tech employment in an increasingly expensive and congested Silicon Valley

• Carl Guardino, Silicon Valley Leadership Group

– Planning for logistics-based employment growth in the Inland Empire

• John Husing, Economics & Politics

– Preparing for an increasingly urbanized San Joaquin Valley

• Barbara Patrick, Great Valley Center


Our Game planClosing Session

• Strategies for Moving Forward: What should be done? Can it be done? If so, how and by whom?

– Honorable Christopher Cabaldon, West Sacramento

– Hasan Ikhrata, Southern California Association of Governments

– Joan Sollenberger, California Department of Transportation


Some opening thoughts

• Putting growth in California and the west in context


Some opening thoughts

• Putting growth in California and the west in context

Rush hour – Lagos, Nigeria


Historical and Projected PopulationCalifornia, 1950-2050

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Fro

m P

revi

ou

s D

ecad

ePopulation Growth Rate by Decade

California, 1950-2050

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance


Indexed Trends in Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled in California, 1950-2020

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance, U.S. DOT, Caltrans

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

Per

cent

Cha

nge

from

195

0

Population

Vehicles Milesof Travel


Annual Population Growth RatesCalifornia and the World, 2005-2010

Sources: United Nations Population Fund, CA Dept. of Finance

-0.2%

0.3%

0.8%

1.3%

1.8%

2.3%

Europe NorthAmerica

Asia Oceania LatinAmerica

California Africa

Popula

tion G

row

th R

ate


Share of Population Living in Urbanized AreasCalifornia and the World, 2007

Sources: United Nations Population Fund, USDA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Africa Asia Oceania Europe Latin America North America California

Per

cent

age

of P

opul

atio

n Li

ving

in U

rban

ized

Are

as


Share of Population Living in Urbanized Areas California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007

Sources: United Nations Population Fund, USDA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Uganda Vietnam Zimbabwe Ecuador Japan Italy UK California

Per

cent

age

of P

opul

atio

n Li

ving

in U

rban

ized

Are

as


-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Japan Italy UK Zimbabwe Vietnam California Ecuador Uganda

Ann

ual P

opul

atio

n G

row

th R

ate

Annual Population Growth Rates, California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007

Sources: CIA World Factbook, CA Dept. of Finance


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Zimbabwe Ecuador California Uganda Italy UK Vietnam Japan

Pop

ulat

ion

Den

sity

(pe

ople

per

mi2)

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

GD

P p

er c

apita

(20

06 d

olla

rs)

Population Density

GDP per capita

Population Density and GDP per capita,California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007

Sources: CIA World Factbook,U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance


The Planning forGrowth Conundrum



First Premise:

Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years



First Premise:


— which threaten the quality of life in our state



First Premise:


—which threaten the quality of life in our state.

Second Premise:

If we do not prepare for this growth with infrastructure investments and environmental mitigation, we will chase away new jobs and residents, and the growth will not occur



First Premise:Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years—which threaten the quality of life in our state.

Second Premise:If we do not prepare for this growth with infrastructure investments and environmental mitigation, we will chase away new jobs and residents, and the growth will not occur—which would threaten the quality of life in our state


Growth:Can’t live with it, can’t live without it

• Former New York Yankee star Yogi Berra on why he no longer patronized a popular Manhattan nightclub:


Growth:Can’t live with it, can’t live without it

• Former New York Yankee star Yogi Berra on why he no longer patronized a popular Manhattan nightclub:

“The place is too crowded, nobody goes there anymore.”



Proposition:

Circular, ambivalent, and contradictory attitudes towards growth among voters and the officials they elect…



Proposition:

Circular, ambivalent, and contradictory attitudes towards growth among voters and the officials they elect…

help to explain the circular, ambivalent, and contradictory policies promulgated to manage growth


Cars, density, and values:three policy paths...

Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City– Focus new development into transit corridors

and around major stops/stations



Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City– Focus new development into corridors and

around major stops/stations– Encourage development of major commercial

nodes





nodes– Limit, or at least densify, growth in suburbs,

and especially on fringe






and especially on fringe– Limit parking and increase taxes that raise the

cost of auto use






and especially on fringe– Limit parking and increase taxes that raise the

cost of auto use– Direct transportation investments away from

roads and toward public transit



• Policy Path 2: Improve the Automobile City– Balance jobs/housing, mix land uses, and cap

development densities in areas not already well-served by transit





– Design new development to integrate autos with walking environments to reduce vehicle trips






– Add road and parking capacity where warranted






– Add road and parking capacity where warranted– Set transportation taxes and fees to vary with

costs imposed on by drivers (or, short of that, increase motor fuels taxes) to create a self-regulating, self-financing system



• Policy Path 3: Try to do both as a matter of political compromise– Policies, programs, and projects often operate

at cross-purposes




at cross-purposes– Funding is increasingly ad hoc and unrelated

to transportation system use





to transportation system use– Create densely-developed, largely auto-

dependent, chronically-congested centers• High-rise development with plenty of parking





to transportation system use– Creating densely-developed, largely auto-

dependent, chronically-congested centers• High-rise development with plenty of parking

– The worst of all possible worlds?


Try to do both: The worst of all possible worlds?


The Road Ahead

institute of transportation studies planning for growth: demographics, employment, housing, and...

Documents