Institutional Capacity Building Through Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)

Kabineh KonnehProgram Manager

NOAA Climate Regional Decision Support Research Program, (NCRDS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Program (NOAA-OGP)

Tel: +1 (301)-427-2374

E-mail: kabineh.konneh@noaa.gov

http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/esd/africa/index.htm

International Workshop on Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Advances and Challenges; Challenges;

WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 11-13 May, 2005.WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 11-13 May, 2005.

Structure of the TalkStructure of the Talk• Climate and societal vulnerability

– Disproportional vulnerability of developing regions

• RCOF and its evolution

• Location of RCOFs from 1996 to date

• Institutional Capacity Building– RCOFs and institutional synergies

– Research capacity building

– Use of RCOF products

– Accomplishments of the (RCOFS)

• Challenges of the RCOF process

• Conclusions and recommendations

Climate, Economic Sectors, Climate, Economic Sectors, Society and EcosystemsSociety and Ecosystems

• Climate affects everything we do, and everybody is vulnerable to Climate affects everything we do, and everybody is vulnerable to climate risks-climate risks-Populations, Economies, AND EcosystemsPopulations, Economies, AND Ecosystems

Climate, People, Economic Climate, People, Economic Sectors and EcosystemsSectors and Ecosystems

Regional Climate Outlook Forum Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Process(RCOF) Process

• Provides information to help reduce climate risks

• Strengthens the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), and users

• Provides a platform for effective interaction between forecasting and user communities

Climate Outlook Forums Climate Outlook Forums 1997-Date 1997-Date

Serving society’s needs for climate Serving society’s needs for climate informationinformation

Institutional Capacity Building Institutional Capacity Building Through RCOFsThrough RCOFs

• Capacity building is a function of:

– affording the institutions and communities access to the latest climate information

– translating scientific insights into user-friendly format

– hands-on use of the information (probabilistic forecast) and

– developing decisions support tools tailored for specific decision context.

NMHSs NMHSs

• Forecasting capability of the NMHs staff has gone beyond simple weather forecasting (3-5) days, to 3-6 months using the knowledge of ENSO

• Pre-COF training of national forecasters has improved their capacity for long-range forecasting

• NMHSs now do dynamical modeling which better captures the chaotic nature of the climate system, especially in the GHA

Capacity Building of User Capacity Building of User CommunitiesCommunities

• Reducing climate related vulnerability and food security emergencies Reducing climate related vulnerability and food security emergencies

– Agricultural decision makers (downscaling of climate information for agricultural applications) : Agricultural extension institutionsAgricultural extension institutions

– Factoring climate information into water resources management (prototype reservoir management prediction models: Water resource managers in resource managers in hydropower institutionshydropower institutions

– Factoring climate information into public health climate related risk management (prototype malaria prediction models): Public health Public health institutionsinstitutions

– Greater awareness of the value of climate information in climate risk management

• Food security monitoring Food security monitoring – Monitoring current growing season for rainfall and vegetation indices on a

regular basis to anticipate humanitarian response (WFP, 2000/2001 COF forecast): Food security institutions (NGOs) and public sector institutionsFood security institutions (NGOs) and public sector institutions

Intermediary Capacity Intermediary Capacity BuildingBuilding

• RCOFs have created effective collaboration and understanding between the forecasters and journalists

• Through associated sector training (a major component of RCOFs), the media now has better understanding of the basic language and subject of seasonal forecasting

• RCOFs have facilitated establishment of regional networks of climate journalists in the GHA and SADC Regions

• These networks now do specialized reporting on climate issues

Improving Regional and National Improving Regional and National Climate Research Capacity: Climate Research Capacity: Climate Climate

Applications ResearchApplications Research

• Developing new methodologies and enhancing existing ones for applying climate information

• Assessing the effectiveness of communicating the information

• Identifying and addressing challenges of using the information

• Pilot research through universities, high schools and research institutions and NMHSs

Accomplishments of COFsAccomplishments of COFs

• RCOFs have established regional journalists networks and collaborations

• Have contributed to bridging the gap between science and policy

– NMHSs now integrating work of major climate modeling centers with local expertise to provide better skilled information

• Have provided consensus, legitimate and credible information as compared to multiple and conflicting information in the pre-COF era

• Have created opportunities for decision makers to plan ahead of anticipated hydro-meteorological disasters and,

• Have improved farm management strategies to reduce loss of crop yields ,based on the forecast information

Challenges to the capacity Challenges to the capacity building through RCOFsbuilding through RCOFs

• InstitutionalInstitutional – Sustainability of the process – Integrating RCOF products into planning activities– Lack of forecast dependent logistical support (institutional support,

such as subsidies, credits and crop insurances)

• TechnicalTechnical– COF products are still too generic (not addressing specific needs

requirements)– language of the current forecast is too technical– Usability still low– Lack of effective and appropriate communication protocol– Lack of a more holistic risk assessment of climate impacts ( climate

information should not be a stand-alone factor)

Partners in the Capacity Partners in the Capacity Building EffortBuilding Effort

• NOAA-OGP (Donor)

• USAID-OFDA (Donor)

• WMO (Technical)

• The World Bank (Donor)

• IRI (Technical)

• UK Met. Office (Technical)

• Meteo France (Technical)

• NCEP/CPC (Technical)

• DMCs, ACMAD and NMHS (Technical)

Conclusions and Conclusions and RecommendationsRecommendations

• RCOFs have enhanced regional and national research capacity.

• They have become a well-recognized international framework for providing and disseminating credible and legitimate climate information

• RCOFs have improved the ability of NMHSs for seasonal forecasting

• RCOFs have contributed to emergence of climate journalists

• RecommendationsRecommendations– Donors encourage development of regional frameworks to support future RCOFs– Forecast providers should improve the skill and accuracy of the lead-time of the

forecast – Forecasters to provide sector specific information and– Research in seasonal forecasting to engage in a broader spectrum risk assessment and

increase effort to understand the decision context of users– Forecast providers and social scientists to develop appropriate information and

communication protocols