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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Nestle India (NEST IN) Altius, Citius, Fortius INDIA | FMCG | Company Update

22 August 2018

We attended Nestle analyst meet yesterday and came pretty impressed with 1) management agility on doing required (innovation, focus on new channels, withdrawing new products if not getting traction) for driving growth within existing categories, 2) foray into fast‐growing new categories (breakfast cereals, nutrition supplement category) and satisfactory reply from management as why Pet care business has been launched thorough Nestle SA (Parent), which had been concern area for us and 3) adopting cluster based approach for driving distribution related efficiencies. We upgrade to BUY from Neutral with revised TP of Rs 12,000 (55x Sept‐20 EPS) vs Rs 10,875 (50x Sept‐20 EPS) earlier Core categories – NPD / channel expansion to continue: Management highlighted core categories continue to see healthy traction owing to market share gains (in noodles, beverages category), new product launches (65% of the launches got decent traction) and further expansion into newer channels (e‐commerce, out of home market). Nestle has withdrawn 11 new launches out of 39 launches made so far (which were introduced post new MD’s induction in August,2015) from the market, as the products were either ahead of time or there was miscommunication from the company’s side on actual purpose/intend of the product. Contribution of NPD to total sales has increased from 2.8% in 1HCY17 to 3% in 1HCY18. Foray into fast growing new categories: Nestle entry into breakfast cereals (market size expected to reach Rs 32 bn in 2020 from Rs 21 bn in 2017) and health/nutrition supplements category (market size of Rs 150‐200 bn) seems to be encouraging as it has “right to win” in these categories. We were fully satisfied with management’s reply ‐ capabilities/skills, nature of business and route to market are completely different for Pet care business from core FMCG business and therefore launched thorough Nestle SA (parent) ; not thorough listed Indian arm. Nesplus breakfast cereals (customized product/formulation), despite being product of global JV between Nestle SA and General Mills has been incubated in Nestle India as local management has required expertise in this line of business Cluster based distribution approach to unleash next leg of growth – Nestle has decided to create 15 distribution clusters within India (something similar HUL did in 2014 thorough “Winning In Many India” approach). HUL saw healthy traction (gross sales grew 9.4% Cagr over FY14‐16) post it transformed from four branch structure to 14 cluster approach. We believe Nestle is also likely to follow the suit as granular understanding of customer profile, competitors and products will enable local management to devise strategy which could drive growth in semi‐urban/ rural areas (Nestle Rural contribution is only c15‐20% vs Industry contribution of c35‐40%). Scarcity Premium within F&B space to support rich valuations : We had got too bogged down by rich valuations despite strong business outlook and downgraded our rating to Neutral from BUY post 2QCY18 results and we believe post analyst meet, it is too difficult to pin down the impact of fresh qualitative factors into financials nos; although we have tried our level best – 1) management new found aggression with regards to foray into newer categories 2) re‐jigging distribution structure, thereby empowering local team to take required action to combat competition and 3) success of new product launches in existing categories. Hence, we increased our PE multiple from 50x to 55x to incorporate the above mentioned observations and upgrade our rating to BUY from Neutral with revised TP of Rs 12,000 vs 10,875 (50x Sept ‐20 EPS) earlier. Risks to our call – 1) Sharper than expected inflation in RM index 2) Nestle not getting desired traction as far as new launches / foray into new categories is concerned.

BUY (Upgrade) CMP RS 10,888 TARGET RS 12,000 (10%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 96MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1037MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 1552 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 10888/6401LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 8.3PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Jun 18 Mar 18 Dec 17PROMOTERS : 62.8 62.8 62.8FII / NRI : 12.4 12.1 11.9FI / MF : 7.9 8.1 8.1NON PRO : 5.0 5.1 4.8PUBLIC & OTHERS : 12.0 12.0 12.4 KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn CY18E CY19E CY20ENet Sales 114,213 129,651 147,547EBIDTA 26,009 30,639 35,811Net Profit 15,431 18,438 21,810EPS, Rs 160 191 226PER, x 64.5 54.0 45.7EV/EBIDTA, x 36.8 31.0 26.3ROE, % 39.9 46.1 52.0Debt/Equity (%) 0.9 0.9 0.8 Vishal Gutka (+91 22 6246 4118) [email protected] Naveen Kulkarni (+91 22 6246 4122) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia (+91 22 6246 4129) [email protected]


NESTLE INDIA COMPANY UPDATE

Volume growth momentum continues

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Nestle makes healthy gains in Noodles, Pasta and Beverages categories

Category Brand MAT

(Jul 16‐Jun 17)MAT

(Jul 17‐Jun 18) Change (yoy)Instant Noodles Maggi 58.7 59.7 100 bpsKetchups & Sauces Maggi 24.4 22.3 ‐210 bpsInstant Pasta Maggi 61.4 67.6 620 bpsInfant Formula Lactogen & NAN 40.9 40.6 ‐30 bpsInfant Cereals Nestle Cerelac 96.4 96.3 ‐10 bpsTea Creamer Every Day 45.7 45.3 ‐40 bpsChocolates Nestle 14.5 14.2 ‐30 bpsWhite & Wafers Kitkat, Munch, Milky Bar 62.5 61.4 ‐110 bpsInstant Coffee Nescafe 47.2 49.4 220 bps

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Maggi’s portfolio – rebuilt brick by brick

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

11.3

7.7 8.9

18.0

6.9

11.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Q1CY17 Q2CY17 Q3CY17 Q4CY17 Q1CY18 Q2CY18

Volume gr (%)

100115 121

108

124132

143 142 138

154

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q1CY16 Q2CY16 Q3CY16 Q4CY16 Q1CY17 Q2CY17 Q3CY17 Q4CY17 Q1CY18 Q2CY18

Maggi Noodles (Sales Index)



Prepared dishes, beverages saw healthy volume growth Category Volume growth (%) Contribution (%)Milk Products & Nutrition 4.6 48 Prepared Dishes 12.8 28 Confectionery 6.1 13 Powdered & Liquid Beverages 9.2 11

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Entry into fast growing categories Breakfast Cereals Health/Nutrition supplements

Source: Company New product launches calendar Month Product CategoryAug‐18 Maggi Special Masala Noodles NoodlesJul‐18 NESPLUS ‐Kokos, Choco‐Burst Fillows, Strawberry Burst Fillows, Nutty

Honey Breakfast Cereals

Mar‐18 Munch ‐ Crunch‐O‐Nuts ChocolatesFeb‐18 Kitkat ‐ Strawberry Duo ChocolatesSep‐17 Kit Kat – Dessert Delight ChocolatesAug‐17 Maggi Nutri‐Licious noodle Noodles Iron‐fortified Maggi Noodles – to make maggi healthier under ‘simply

good 2020 initiative’ Noodles

Nestle A+ Grekyo (Blueberry Greek Yogurt/ Greek Style Curd) YogurtMay‐17 Maggi Masala (AmritsariAchari, MumbaiyaChatak, Super Chennai,

Bengali Jhaal) Noodles

Mar‐17 Milo Ready to Drink BeveragesOct‐16 Nescafe Ready to Drink Beverages Nestle A+ Pro‐Grow Milk & Nutrition Maggi CUPPA Masala/Chilly Chow/ Hot Heads Noodles Maggi No Onion No Garlic Masala NoodlesAug‐16 Maggi Hot Head, Noodles Nescafe Sunrise Insta‐ Filter BeveragesApr‐16 Nestle A+ Grekyo Yogurt Yogurt

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research



Benign commodity costs drove margin expansion; however lately some commodities (wheat, sugar and milk) have started seeing inflationary trends which may halt margin gains in medium term

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Raw material mix

Source: PhillipCapital India Research East (due to high salience to milk category) has a larger share

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

‐12

‐0.4

‐8

23

‐14

10

‐6

‐21‐25‐20‐15‐10‐505

1015202530

Milks Wheat Coffee Palm Oil Sugar DWP MSK Palm Kernel

Commodity Inflation H1'CY18

Milk, 37%

Wheat Flour, 12%

Green Coffee, 10%

Palm oil, 7%

Sugar, 6%

DWP, 4%

MSK, 4%

Palm kernel, 3%

Others, 17%

East, 31%

West, 18%North, 27%

South, 24%

Region wise domestic sales contribution (%)

0.7

1.1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

H1'CY17 H1'CY18

E‐com contribution to domestic sales (%)



Region wise comparable growth

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Two‐year forward P/E Band EV/EBITDA band

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimate

16.2%

13.6%14.6%

10.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

East West North South

Region wise comparable growth (%) ‐ H1'CY18

15x

30x

45x

60x

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000 Rs P/E

10x

20x

30x

40x

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000 Rs mn EV/EBITDA



Financials

Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20ENet sales 99,525 114,213 129,651 147,547Growth, % 10 15 14 14Total income 99,525 114,213 129,651 147,547Raw material expenses ‐43,269 ‐49,124 ‐55,252 ‐62,664Employee expenses ‐10,175 ‐11,452 ‐12,827 ‐14,418Other Operating expenses ‐24,439 ‐27,628 ‐30,933 ‐34,655EBITDA (Core) 21,643 26,009 30,639 35,811Growth, % 10.1 20.2 17.8 16.9Margin, % 21.7 22.8 23.6 24.3Depreciation ‐3,794 ‐3,907 ‐4,133 ‐4,359EBIT 17,849 22,101 26,506 31,452Growth, % 11.6 23.8 19.9 18.7Margin, % 17.9 19.4 20.4 21.3Interest paid ‐919 ‐928 ‐938 ‐947Other Non‐Operating Income 1,769 1,858 1,951 2,048Pre‐tax profit 17,822 23,031 27,519 32,553Tax provided ‐6,141 ‐7,600 ‐9,081 ‐10,742Profit after tax 11,681 15,431 18,438 21,810Net Profit 11,681 15,431 18,438 21,810Growth, % 9 32 19 18Net Profit (adjusted) 11,681 15,431 18,438 21,810Unadj. shares (m) 96 96 96 96Wtdavg shares (m) 96 96 96 96 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20ECash & bank 14,574 38,200 45,246 53,610Debtors 890 1,015 1,152 1,311Inventory 9,025 10,326 11,722 13,340Loans & advances 0 0 0 0Total current assets 25,150 50,203 58,782 68,923Investments 19,789 5,853 5,853 5,853Gross fixed assets 33,584 35,584 37,584 39,584Less: Depreciation ‐7,423 ‐11,330 ‐15,463 ‐19,822Add: Capital WIP 942 942 942 942Net fixed assets 27,103 25,196 23,063 20,704Total assets 73,626 82,836 89,281 97,063 Current liabilities 14,053 15,471 16,994 18,759Total current liabilities 37,843 42,614 47,688 53,569Non‐current liabilities 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577Total liabilities 39,420 44,191 49,265 55,146Paid‐up capital 964 964 964 964Reserves & surplus 33,242 37,868 39,240 41,140Shareholders’ equity 34,206 38,644 40,016 41,917Total equity & liabilities 73,626 82,836 89,281 97,063 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E

Pre‐tax profit 17,822 23,031 27,519 32,553Depreciation 3,794 3,907 4,133 4,359Chg in working capital 4,799 3,345 3,541 4,104Total tax paid ‐6,475 ‐7,600 ‐9,081 ‐10,742Cash flow from operating activities 18,178 22,682 26,111 30,274Capital expenditure ‐1,714 ‐2,000 ‐2,000 ‐2,000Chg in investments ‐2,232 13,936 0 0Cash flow from investing activities ‐1,306 ‐2,000 ‐2,000 ‐2,000Free cash flow 16,872 20,682 24,111 28,274Debt raised/(repaid) 20 0 0 0Dividend (incl. tax) ‐9,980 ‐10,991 ‐17,066 ‐19,910Cash flow from financing activities ‐9,966 ‐10,991 ‐17,066 ‐19,910Net chg in cash 6,906 9,691 7,046 8,364 Valuation Ratios

CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20EPer Share data EPS (INR) 121.2 160.0 191.2 226.2Growth, % 8.8 32.1 19.5 18.3Book NAV/share (INR) 354.8 400.8 415.0 434.7FDEPS (INR) 121.2 160.0 191.2 226.2CEPS (INR) 160.5 200.6 234.1 271.4CFPS (INR) 198.9 216.0 250.6 292.7DPS (INR) 86.0 95.0 150.0 175.0Return ratios Return on assets (%) 17.3 20.5 22.1 24.0Return on equity (%) 34.1 39.9 46.1 52.0Return on capital employed (%) 21.4 25.2 27.2 29.7Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) 3.9 5.0 6.3 8.0Sales/Total assets (x) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6Sales/Net FA (x) 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.7Working capital/Sales (x) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0)Fixed capital/Sales (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4Working capital days (12.8) (11.1) (9.7) (8.5)Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) 1.8 3.2 3.5 3.7Quick ratio (x) 1.1 2.6 2.8 3.0Interest cover (x) 19.4 23.8 28.3 33.2Dividend cover (x) Total debt/Equity (%) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8Net debt/Equity (%) (41.6) (97.9) (112.2) (127.1)Valuation PER (x) 85.3 64.5 54.0 45.7Price/Book (x) 29.1 25.8 24.9 23.8EV/Net sales (x) 9.9 8.4 7.3 6.4EV/EBITDA (x) 45.4 36.8 31.0 26.3EV/EBIT (x) 55.0 43.4 35.9 30.0



Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%

SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.

S (TP 5470)S (TP 5430)S (TP 5450)S (TP 5450)

S (TP 4500)

B (TP 5430)

S (TP 5900)S (TP 6000) B (TP 7700)

B (TP 8400)B (TP 8400)

B (TP 10200)

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

J‐15S (TP 5470)S‐15O‐15D‐15 J‐16M‐16A‐16 J‐16 J‐16 S‐16 O‐16D‐16 J‐17 F‐17 A‐17M‐17 J‐17 A‐17O‐17N‐17 J‐18 F‐18 A‐18M‐18 J‐18



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