Institutions and Policies for Scaling Out Climate Smart Agriculture “, 2-3 December 2013 Colombo, Sri Lanka

MOTIVATIONS

Short rainy season : 4 months

Strong climate variability (strongest in the world and at all time scales)

Huge socio-economical impacts :

Health : malaria, meningitis

Agriculture : (90% in Senegal) rain fed and pastoralism

limited economic resources

Sahel

GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

May June July Aug Sept Oct

Min

Mean

Max

Annual cycle of rainfall

(monthly mean 1950-1997)

EXTREME EVENTS

EX : Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso, 1st of September 2009

BURKINA-FASO : OUAGADOUGOU

Courteously by Nakoulma Guillaume

BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS :

MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH. National Level :

National Weather Service (ANACIM)

Ministry of agriculture (DA)

Initiative Prospective Agriculture and Rural (IPAR)

Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE)

national agricultural research institute (ISRA)

National department of water resource management (DGPRE)

ENDA Energie

Local extension services and NGO in Kaffrine :

agricultural advisers and extension (ANCAR)

Service Départemental du développement Rural (SDDR),

NGO : Volunteers from Red Cross (CR), Africare (PRODIAK), World Vision (WV),

Farmers organizations :

National Farmers (Japandoo, CNCR, FONGS, … ), Individual farmers,

Organization of women producers (GPF), Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation (CPSA)

Communication :

community and rural radio,

National TV, Private radios and TVs (Sud FM, Wal Fadjri, )

Multi modeling approaches

STATISTICAL

RELATIONSHIP

SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURE

PREDICTION :

Rainfall

Ocean Model Output Statistics

Using wind

(Statistical Correction)

Atmosphere

Fcst->SST AGCM

Problems of true versus false onset

Same period of onset but followed by dry spell which affect any planning

False Start True Start

8

Building on local knowledge:

High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of

their indicators “Stronger monsoon”

Doing quite the same thing BUT

Better observing system

More reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers,

…)

« When the wind change direction to fetch the

rain » = Wind change from harmatan to monsoon

during onset

• Field preparation :

• Selecting the crop :

• Planting :

• Weeding :

• Applying fertilizer,

pesticide, …

• Harvesting :

• Storage :

Finance

Technology

Heritage

Sociology

Habits

Beliefs

Environment

Climate/weather

DOCUMENTING FARMERS DECISION SYSTEM :

WHAT DECISONS FARMERS are MAKING TO MANAGE

THEIR CROPPING SYSTEM AND WHY ?

WHAT WHY

Seasonal forecast

varieties

Onset forecast

farm preparation

Nowcasting

flooding saving life (thunder)

Daily forecast

use of fertilizer / pesticide

Ten-day forecast

weeding, field work

Evaluation

Lessons drawn

Training workshop

Indigenous knowledge

Discussion and meetings

Field Visits

10 days experts meeting :

monitoring the season

Ten-day forecast

optimum

harvesting period

Before During the Crop season Maturity/end

team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1

MM OF RAIN MEANS”

Clim

ate

info

rm

atio

n

Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting

Local working Group

(Customize Climate information) Farmers

Agriculture

Livestock Local

authority

Extensions

services Forestry

Rural radio

Seed growers

Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin

Local P

luri-d

iscip

lina

ry

Work

ing G

rou

p

Com

mu

nity

Pest Disease

Control

First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous

knowledge)

Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast

(tailored for specific user needs : local language)

Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each

institution has part of the solution for food security)

Communicating the forecast in easy to use term

(easy to understand, can translate into action and to be evaluated)

Dynamic process : need to better understand

farmers decision system (farmers active participation : rain guage,

indigenous knowledge …)

WHAT DID WE LEARN

CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm

Up-scaling other sites (government representative demand)

Alternative :

dry (bad news !) =>give them hope (climate insurance, alternative)

wet but there is no extra resources : so what ? (engage

seed/fertilizer producers, bank (CMS), corporation, … )

High rate of adoption by farmers and local administration

(official )

SOLUTION : whole package with other partners (WFP)

① Climate services (forecast + technology => advices)

② Climate insurance (dry/bad forecast + courage)

③ Access to finance, resources (wet//good forecast)

PRELIMINARY VERIFICATION 2012

(by farmers and extensions)

Extra seasonal rainfall :

Early warning issued on the May 16th for rain on the next 8 days

It did rain on the 21st May 2012 (save a lot on crop left outside)

True Onset :

Forecast made on 9/10 May updated 10 June : 18 to 24 June 2012

First significant rainfall : 19 June (all kaffrine) (03Jun)

Seasonal forecast :

Forecast (9-10 May) : Normal to below normal (500 – 900 mm)

Recorded rain in kaffrine : 576-1075 mm (Normal to above normal)

Early Warning System : ( 10 day, 1-2 day, 30mm to 3 hour)

21 forecasts (all time scales) only 4 went way off

problem of spatial coverage of the forecast kaffrine is too wide !