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INTEGRATED ANALYSIS AND MONITORING OF URBAN RESILIENCE La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Dr. Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno

Resilient Cities 2015

June 10, 2015

Bonn, Germany

DISASTER OPPORTUNITY

SPATIAL STRATEGIES AND RECOMMEDNATIONS FOR INCREASING RESILIENCE

Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.

Objectives of the study


1. Evaluate the impacts caused by Hurricane Odile

2. Evaluate capacities for preparing, responding, coping, and adapting to

natural hazards

3. Develop a priority list of cross- sectoral recommendations specific to locations across the city

"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.

A spatial approach to measuring

resilience


Resiliencia


“The ability of a system, community or society exposed to

hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including

through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.” (UNISDR, 2009)

Spatial

Temporal

Inter-sectorial

Participatory

Our approach

Step 1: Creation of the Resilience Committee

Step 2: Analysis of base capacities: intuitions, economic, social,

infrastructure.

Proceso del estudio

Step 3: Evaluation of vulnerabilities e impacts

Step 4: Evaluation of priorities, coping capacities and greater urgencies.

Step 5: Geospatial Analysis to evaluate coping and adaptation capacities

Step 6: Resilience evaluation: geospatial and quantitative

comparison of various capacities.

Step 7: Identification and prioritization of resilience strategies through a participatory process

Proceso vivo e interactivo

Municipio

Estado

Federal

Comité de Resiliencia

+

+ +

IMPLEMENTACIÓN Y MONITOREO

COMUNICACIÓN y TRANSPARENCIA

INTERSECTORIAL


Carácter del Proceso


Community survey

Encuesta comunitaria:

• 26 questions regarding Hurricane Odile

• 200 surveys administered (rapid study)

• 117 AGEBs (geostatistical units) represented / 76 colonias represented

• 60,815* households in these AGEBs

• 157,717* population over 15 year sold in these AGEBs

• 254 unique spatial attributes derived for AGEB (GIS)

Impactos de Huracán

Odile

Afrontamiento al Huracán

Odile

Adaptación antes y

despues de amenazas naturales

Flexibilidad (Prioridades y umbrales

de resistencia)

Vulnerabilidad

Comunicación Preparación

Edad de respondientes

<18 años

18-30 años

30-60 años

>60 años

No respuesta


Data used in the analytical process

PIMUS

PLAN DE ACCIÓN ANTE EL CAMBIO

CLIMÁTICO PARA LA PAZ Y SUS ZONAS

COLINDANTES

Adaptación y mitigación

Informe final

Coordinación:

Antonina Ivanova Boncheva

Alfredo Sergio Bermúdez Contreras

15 noviembre 2013

PACC-LAP

ESTE PROGRAMA ES DE CARÁCTER PÚBLICO, NO ES PATROCINADO NI PROMOVIDO POR PARTIDO POLÍTICO ALGUNO Y SUS RECURSOS PROVIENEN DE LOS IMPUESTOS QUE PAGAN TODOS LOS CONTRIBUYENTES. ESTA PROHIBIDO EL USO DE ESTE PROGRAMA CON FINES POLÍTICOS, ELECTORALES, DE LUCRO Y OTROS DISTINTOS A LOS ESTABLECIDOS. QUIEN HAGA USO INDEBIDO DE LOS RECURSOS DE

ESTE PROGRAMA DEBERÁ SER DENUNCIADO Y SANCIONADO DE ACUERDO CON LA LEY APLICABLE Y ANTE LA AUTORIDAD COMPETENTE.

Atlas de Riesgos y Peligros Naturales del

Municipio de La Paz, BCS 2012

Noviembre 22, 2012

Revisión Final

Número de obra

LA-803003996-N3-2012

La Paz, Baja California Sur

Soluciona Arquitectura y Construcción S.A de C.V.

Garmendia No. 55 Local B

Hermosillo, Sonora

(662) 213 00 81

[email protected]

Atlas de Riesgos Diagnóstico ICES

©2012GeoAdaptive,LLC LaPaz–CiudadSostenibledelBID|ReporteEvaluaciónporIndicadores 2

LA PAZ, CUIDAD SOSTENIBLE

Banco Inter-A m ericano de D esarrollo

R e p o r t e S i s t e m a d e I n d i c a d o r e s p a r a l a P l a t a f o r m a d e

C i u d a d e s E m e r g e n t e s y S o s t e n i b l e s

R e v i s i ó n - 2 2 d e a g o s t o 2 0 1 2 Preparadopara:

FundaciónInternacionaldelaComunidad(ICF)yFundaciónFEMSA

©2012GeoAdaptive,LLCLaPaz–CiudadSostenibledelBID|AnálisisdeHuellaUrbana 2

LA PAZ, CIUDAD SOSTENIBLE Banco Interam ericano de D esarrollo

R e p o r t e : A n á l i s i s H i s t ó r i c o d e l U s o d e l S u e l o y F u t u r a H u e l l a U r b a n a

1 7 d e a b r i l d e 2 0 1 2 Preparadopara:


©2012GeoAdaptive,LLC VulnerabilidadanteelCambioClimático|LaPaz,BajaCaliforniaSur 2

LA PAZ, CIUDAD SOSTENIBLE Banco Interam ericano de D esarrollo

R e p o r t e : V u l n e r a b i l i d a d A n t e e l C a m b i o C l i m á t i c o

p a r a l a P l a t a f o r m a d e C i u d a d e s E m e r g e n t e s y S o s t e n i b l e s

2 2 d e a g o s t o d e 2 0 1 2 Preparadopara:


Previous studies:

Spatial data:

• INEGI (census) • UABCS (hazards) • SEDATU (infrastructure)


Participatory Mapping Interviews & Focus Groups

Civil society Academic sector Private sector Municipal government State government Federal government Community survey


What impacts occurred as a result of hurricane Odile? What are the baseline capacities of the city? (institutional, infrastructural, and social) How did the city respond to Hurricane Odile? What can be done to increase resilience?

1. 2.

3. 4.

Guiding questions

Methodological approach

Baseline capacities

Needs and uses

Vulnerability

(Additional) Capacity to cope and respond

Impacts

Additional capacity to adapt and prepare

The “Normal” to maintain essential basic structures and functions

Stress – during hazard conditions

Stress – during normal conditions

Redefines “normal”

Methodological approach (example: potable water sector)

Baseline capacities

Needs and uses

Vulnerability


Impacts


Current water extraction rate and water network coverage

Daily water use and population

Potential exposure to multiple hazards, access to basic services, income, education, etc.

Services and supplies offered post-Odile

% households without water service X days without water

Proximity to water resources and facilities


Baseline capacities

Needs and uses

Vulnerability


Impacts


Urban Resilience – water sector


Urban Resilience – water sector

High resilience

Low resilience

La Pasión

Conchalito

Manuel Marquez de León

Navarro Rubio

Urban resilience (water sector)

Lease resilient Colonias Average relative score per total colonial area

Col. Granjas Manuel Marquez de Leon -3.97

Col. Marquez de Leon -3.75

Col. SN_2 -3.75

Col. Vivah El Progreso -3.24

Col. Lagunitas -2.91

Methodological approach

Sector Weights assigned based on committee input

Electricity x9

Emergency services and infrastructure

x7

Transportation x5

Health x5

Water x4

Communication x4

Food and basic provisions

x4

Final spatial

result: Cross-sectoral urban resilience


How was the city impacted by

Hurricane Odile?

• Social and economic

• Critical infrastructure

• Duration

Housing Energy Road System

Health Education Potable water

Damage Inventory


Housing Impacts

Fuentes: SEDATU, entrevista con Corredores con Causa, Carmen Durán DIF, Juan Valenzuela Desarrollo Social, encuesta comunitaria


Vista

Hermosa, Las

Lagunitas,

Villas de

Guadalupe

La Passión

Calafia

Agua

Escondida

Nivel de impacto

(viviendas)

Impacto

Tipo de impacto

1,036 Daños de las viviendas

131 $720,500 Daños menores de las viviendas 131

$720,500 Daños menores de las viviendas

872

$24,416,000 Daños parciales de las viviendas

32 $5,440,000 Daños totales de las viviendas

36 $6,120,000 Reubicaciones de las viviendas

La Pitaya

Agustín Olachea &

Ampl. Navarro Rubio Esterito

MXN $36.7 millones

Electricity Service Impacts

Fuentes: CFE, encuesta comunitaria, BID-ICES 2012, INEGI 2010

Colonias vulnerables

Lineas de alta tensión

Días sin servicio electrico

0

1-3

4-7

8-14

>14


Vista

Hermosa, Las

Lagunitas,

Villas de

Guadalupe

La Passión

Agua

Escondida

Conchalito

Agustín Olachea &

Ampl. Navarro Rubio Esterito

34%

34% 30% 33%

21% 22%

43% Menos de un día

58%

24%

Low dependency

High dependency

• ¿How much time can you sustain or support the impact conditions before you experience an irreversible damage?

Impact assessment

During September 2014, Hurricane Odile, a Category 4 hurricane made landfall over Baja California Sur. The most intense hurricane to hit the region since 1976, Odile caused a multitude of impacts. Regional electric transmission lines were damaged, causing impacts on many other sectors.

This document contains preliminary results of the study of Resilience Strategies for La Paz for the ICF and IADB. It is forbidden to distribute without prior authorization © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc. All rights reserved.

Water (FONDEN)

More than 41 colonias, 28% of total population went without water for 8+ days. Housing (FONDEN and INFONAVIT)

3,310 homes, approximately 4% of the housing stock in La Paz- in losses Urban Transportation (SEDATU)

Streets in 5 colonias were blocked for more than 7 days. Tourism (Emprotur)

33 damaged hotels, 11 restaurants, and 7 marinas

MXN $58 million

MXN $93 million

MXN $130 million

MXN $212 million

TOTAL COST: MXN $2.9 billion

Impact assessment


Street Lights 20 000 damaged (SEDATU)

Basic services, ATMs, Banks and Emergency services Lack of fuel and electricity Health Lack of fuel for power plant (ISSSTE) Education 7149 students displaced from school (3 shelters) All closed for 2 weeks Environment 160 000 damaged trees (Desarrollo

Sustentable)

¿How and where can resilience be increased in La Paz?


Evaluation results: Cross-sectoral Resilience

Urban Resilience

High resilience

Low resilience

Resilience score per sector

Sector Maximum relative score (per total colonia area)

Minimum relative score (per total colonia area)

Transportation 4.075 -4.925

Food and basic provisions 2.7 -3.6

Emergency infrastructure and services 2.2 -6.2

Electricity 2.1 -2.4

Communication 2.03 -3.4

Medical services 1.3 -5.3

Water 0.2 -4.4

Process of identifying resilience strategies


Validation, prioritization, and focus groups with local and regional experts

Synthesis of existing strategies and proposed works

Integration of impact and resilience evaluations

ICES-Plan de Acción

PACC Atlas de riesgo

Resilience Road Map

Recommendations


Protection Formalize existing emergency protocols and develop a regional and local emergency management plan. Coordination Increase institutional capacity, coordination, and communication. Preparedness and Adaptation Support preparedness and adaptation at the household level, reducing social vulnerability. Resilient Housing and Planning Integrate vulnerability, risk, and resilience studies into city planning efforts. Accessibility and Capacity Increase, monitor, and manage capacities of basic services. Ensure access to services across and between communities

Limitations of the study

• Rapid study of 4 months | Pilot project

• Limited coordination between agencies that could facilitate better reporting of impacts

• Limited spatial data related to recovery, adaptation and preparedness

• Needs to also incorporate environmental resilience


Proceso VIVO e interactivo

Thanks

[email protected]

www.geoadaptive.com

+1-617-832-5396


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