Integrated Assessment Modelling Activities in India in 2014-15

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Shivika MittalNational Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukuba, Japan

Presented in The 21th AIM International WorkshopNational Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Nov 13-14, 2015

Overview of Activities (2014-15)

1. Research and Dissemination• Modelling exercises

INDC National Level-Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) Sectoral & Sub-National Level Assessments

• LCS-RNet and LOCAR-Net: Linking Research & International Policymaking

2. Year 2015-16: Way Forward

INDC Target (Quantitative)

Base year: 2005Target year: 2030

Quantitative Features:1. 33-35% reduction of CO2 Intensity of GDP

2. 40% Electric Power Capacity from non-fossil sources

3. Additional Carbon Sink (2.5 to 3 Bil. Ton of CO2 by 2030)

Emissions Target (2030)

2005 2010 2030Intensity Index 100 91.21 65 67

CO2e (Bt) 1.41 1.98 5.97 6.15

GDP (Tr. Rs - 2004-05) 35.43 52.83 230.59 230.59

CO2e/GDP (Ton/Mil Rs) 39.83 37.48 25.89 26.68

Population (Billion) 1.12 1.19 1.475 1.475

CO2e/Capita (Ton) 1.25 1.66 4.05 4.17

NATIONAL LEVEL

Alternative Development Pathways

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable

2010 2030 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

Gas

Oil

Coal

DDPP: Energy related CO2 Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable

2010 2030 2050

Mt C

O2 Agriculture

Transport

Industry

Commercial

Residential

DDPP: CO2 Emissions by Sector

Air Pollution & Energy Security Co-benefitss

2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 saved (Million tCO2) 370.6 671.8 918.9 1049.4Revenue from CO2 saved(Bn US $ 2010) 16.6 45.1 82.3 152.9

Revenue as % of GDP 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

Revenues from carbon saved in Sustainable Scenario

Co-benefits: Social Value of Carbon

SECTORAL & SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL

Air pollution co-benefits of low carbon policies in road transport : a subnational assessment for India

Industrialized and economically Advanced

regionsLess developed regions

Passenger Transport Demand

CO2 Emissions

Economically Advanced region Less developed region

CO2

PM

NOx

Air Quality Co-benefits

Low carbon urban transport scenarios for China and India: A comparative assessment

Urban Passenger Transport Demand

Technology Mix

Energy MixChina India

Year 2015-16: Way Forward1. India national and subnational Low Carbon Scenarios and Plans to align

with Global Stabilization Target

2. Comparative Cross-country Assessments

3. Cooperation during Participation in International Projects

• MILES Project• Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)• CD-Links Project

4. New research agenda related to sustainable development and climate change

5. Capacity Building and Dissemination

Thank You