Integrated Assessment of Energy Related SO2 Emissions Control

in China’s 12th Five-Year Plan

Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng ZhouJuly 30, 2013

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

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32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCEJULY 28-31 · ANCHORAGE AK, USA

1. Introduction

2. Methodologies

3. Results and Discussion

4. Conclusions

References

2

Content

China’s five-year plans are a series of social and economic development initiatives.

SO2 reduction targets and results in the previous five-year plans.

Source: NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (2000-2012)

3

1. Introduction

　 10th (2001-2005) 11th (2006-2010)

SO2 reduction targets 10% below 2000 levels 10% below 2005 levels

SO2 reduction results 27.8% above 2000 levels 14.3% below 2005 levelsIndustrial emissions meeting discharge standards 79.4% 97.9%Industrial desulfurization rate 33.5% 66.0%

SO2 emissions of China (1992-2010)Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (1990-2012), NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (1998-2012)

4

1.1 SO2 emissions of China

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

SO₂ e

mis

sion

s(M

t)

Industrial SO₂ removed Household SO₂ emissions Industrial SO₂ emissions

↑27.8% ↓14.3%

66.0%

33.5%

Industrial desulfurization rate

SO2 emissions and desulfurization rates by provinces of China in 2010Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011)

5

1.2 SO2 emissions by provinces in 2010

69.6%

63.2%

63.2%62.9%

57.3%60.1%

40.3%

20.9%

61.2%

68.3%

66.5%

76.9%

50.9%

77.6%

69.5%

55.2%

67.9%

61.5%59.5%

53.7%

75.7%

62.7%

48.1%

77.2%77.1%

0.0%

60.4%

79.3%

17.3%

65.4%

25.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

SO₂ e

mis

sion

s and

rem

oved

(Mt)

SO₂ emissions removed (left) SO₂ emissions (left) Desulfurization rate (right) Mean desulfurization rate (right)

66%

Above mean desulfurization rate

SO2 emissions by sectors of China in 2010Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 6

1.3 SO2 emissions by sectors in 2010Mining & Quarrying

2.0%Food, Beverage &

Tobacco2.0%

Textile1.2%

Leather, Furs & Down0.3%

Papermaking & Paper Products

2.5%

Printing & Record Medium

0.0%Petroleum, Coking &

Nuclear Fuel3.1%Chemical Materials

& Products5.1%Medical &

Pharmaceutical0.4%

Chemical Fiber0.5%

Rubber0.2%

Plastic0.1%Nonmetal Mineral

8.3%

Ferrous Metals8.7%

Nonferrous Metals4.0%

Metal Products0.2%

Machine & Electronic Equipment

0.8%

Electric & Heat Power44.5%

Other Industries0.1%

Household15.8%

Industrial desulfurization rates by sectors of China in 2010Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011)

7

1.4 Industrial desulfurization rates by sectors in 2010

63.9%

31.4%28.7%

18.1%

31.3%

15.0%

79.0%

54.2%

34.9%

61.8%

48.3%

31.7%

19.4%

31.9%

89.9%

23.5%

34.3%

68.3%

47.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Mean desulfurization rate

66.0%

Above mean desulfurization rate

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1.5 SO2 reduction in the 12th Five-Year Plan

China’s SO2 emission reduction target in the 12th Five-Year PlanSource: State Council of China, The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation

and Emission Reduction During the 12th Five-Year Plan Period

3 provinces are allowed to increase SO2 emissions.

• SO2 emissions limit in 2015: 20.9 Mt, 8% below 2010 levels.

• 0.2 Mt is reserved for SO2 emission trading pilot projects among regions and enterprises.

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2. Methodologies

Integrated assessment model framework

INV: Investment

Y = CON + INV + EC

maximize

PE: Electricity supply

PN: Non-electricity supply

CARTRD: Carbon import/export

Carbon EmissionCON:

Consumption

RSV: Proved reserves

CARLIM: Carbon limits

NENC: Non-energy carbon

Macroeconomic constraints1 Energy balance2

Emission evaluation3

YN = F(KN, LN, EN, NN)

E: Electricity

N: Non electricity

Y: Production output

prv: Reserve ratio

EMF: Emission factor

UDF: Utilility disounted factor

Learning rate

Expansion factor

EC: Energy cost

UTIL: Discounted utility

K: Capital stock L: Labor

ENTRD: Energy import/export

CTAX: Carbon tax

Two-level CES production

function

Technological learning

SO2 emission calculation

◦ SO2r: SO2 emissions in specific region.

◦ Qrse: Energy thermal consumptions in specific region, sector and energy source.

◦ Sre: Sulfur content in specific region and energy source.

◦ αre: SO2 emission factor in specific region and energy source.

◦ δre: Desulfurization rate in specific region and energy source.

Objective function

◦ UTIL: Discounted consumption.◦ C: Annual consumption.◦ udr: Utility discount rate.

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2.1 SO2 emission calculation and objective function

s e

rerererser SQSO )1(22

R

r

T

trt

t

j rj CudrUTIL1 1

,

51

0 , )log()1(5

Four GDP growth scenarios◦ planned growth 12th Five-Year Plan: 7% ◦ GDP growth scenarios: 5%, 7%, 9% and 11%

Five possible desulfurization rates◦ desulfurization rate in 2010: 66.0%◦ desulfurization rate scenarios: 50%, 60% 70%, 80% and 90%◦ given exogenously due to the uncertainty of the popularizing rates of

desulfurization equipment All the scenarios are simulated:

◦ in view of China’s current economic development and energy consumption

◦ considering relevant environmental protection and greenhouse gas emission reduction

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2.2 GDP growth and desulfurization scenarios

GDP growth Scenarios

Primary energy consumption

Electricity generation

Gross SO2 emissions

Household SO2 emissions

(%) (Mtoe) (TWh) (Mt) (Mt)5% 2673 5306 60.6

2.17% 2818 5893 65.0

2.29% 3001 6434 69.0

2.211% 3405 8193 80.7

2.3

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3. Results and Discussion

SO2 emission scenarios of China in 2015

7% growth scenario reduces 14.0% of energy consumption per unit of GDP, slightly lower than the target of 16% set in the 12th Five-Year Plan.

The household SO2 emissions show little change due to the single emission source, namely the direct use of coal.

SO2 emitted by household use of petroleum gas/natural gas is ignored in this study.

SO2 emission reduction scenarios13

3.1 SO2 emission reduction scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

2010 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

SO₂ emissions Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate

SO₂ e

miss

ions

(Mt)

0

10

20

30

40

2010 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

SO₂ emissions Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate

SO₂ e

mis

sion

s (M

t)

0

10

20

30

40

2010 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

SO₂ emissions Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate

SO₂ e

mis

sion

s (M

t)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

SO₂ emissions Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate

SO₂ e

mis

sion

s (M

t)

5% growth 7% growth

11% growth9% growth

Industrial desulfurization rate needed for 12th 5-year plan targets

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3.2 Industrial desulfurization rate needed for 12th 5-year plan

33.5%

63.9%69.9% 72.1% 73.8%

77.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2010 5% 7% 9% 11%

GDP growth scenarios

Indu

stria

l des

ulfu

rizati

on ra

te n

eede

d fo

r 12

th 5

-yea

r pla

n ta

rget

s (%

)

Desulfurization rates should be raised above 70% due to the uncertainty of GDP growth.

The popularization of wet-type SO2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO2 control target by 2015

SO2 emissions by power generation and other sectors,

and SO2 emissions intensity of power generation15

3.3 SO2 emissions of power generation industry sector

0

1

2

3

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

GDP growth 5% GDP growth 7% GDP growth 9% GDP growth 11%

SO₂ e

mis

sion

inte

nsity

of p

ower

gen

erati

on (g

/kW

h)

SO₂ e

mis

sion

s (M

t)

Emissions by other sectors (Left) SO₂ emissions by power generation

Emission intensity of power generation (Right)

This study makes a comprehensive assessment of energy related SO2 emissions control in China’s 12th Five-Year Plan based on a large scale non-linear integrated assessment model.

1. There is a relative large potential for China to reduce SO2 emissions technologically and the popularization of wet-type SO2 scrubbers and improvement of the

environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO2 control target by 2015.

2. The improvement in energy consumption structure contributes to SO2 and other energy related emission controls effectively, as well as the sustainable development of energy.

3. The thresholds of desulfurization for different growth scenarios, namely 5%, 7%, 9% and 11% scenarios, to achieve the SO2 emission control target are presented in this study, as 69.9%, 72.1%, 73.8% and 77.8, respectively.

4. Future environmental policy should concentrate on the provinces which emit SO2 seriously, like Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Henan, or relevant industrial sectors such as electric & heat power, ferrous metals and nonmetal mineral sectors.

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4. Conclusions

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References

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