Integrated Infrastructure for Sustainable Cities

(CREATE-IISC)

September 4-5, 2018 Workshop

Vision / Concept behind the CREATE-IISC

David Layzell, CESAR

PERSONAL MOBILITYFREIGHT TRANSPORT BUILT SPACES

WASTE MGMTCLIMATE CHANGE

Cities (& their residents) have sustainability problems…

…that need to be addressed

AccidentsCongestion High LDV cost

($13+K/family)

Parking

Public Transit Costs

Truck Driver Shortage

Low Load Factors

Underutilized Assets

GHGsAir pollution

Urban sprawlInefficient buildings

Home prices

MSW

Low LDV use4% of time

Biodiversity

Crime

Isolation & depression

FloodsDrought

ObesitySummer Electricity Demand

GHGsBiosolids

Brownfield sites

Severe weather

Grid Greening

Toxins

TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS MODEL POLICY SOCIALDISR

UPTIVE

INNO

VATIONS

Autonomous VehiclesCar sharing

Battery Technologies Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Big DataSensor Technologies

Carbon Pricing

Regulations

Incentives

Generational changes

Cultural Shifts

Behavioural ‘norms’

Mobility-as-a-Service

Modular or 3D printing of buildings

Physical Internet DronesRobotics

Google Sidewalk LabsInternet of things

Vegetarianism

Solar PVmicrogrids

Prosumers

How disruptive innovations are deployed will determine whether the problems:

Ø Will be addressed,

Ø Made worse, or

Ø Generate new, more challenging problems.

The ‘devil’ is in the details…EXAMPLE:

Autonomous, personally-owned vehicles

Autonomous, connected shared, electric vehicles in MaaS business model (with good policy)

- Accidents+ Urban sprawl+ Congestion+ Air pollution+ GHG Emissions+ Cost

- Accidents- Parking demand- Urban sprawl- Congestion- Air pollution- GHG Emissions- Cost+ Job losses

PROJECTED IMPACTS:

Decision makers in government & industry would benefit an understanding of:

1. How best to respond to / prepare for disruptive forces;

Examples:• Adaptation to climate change impacts• Unwanted technology, business model,

policy or social innovations

2. How to ‘Direct Disruption’ to achieve societal objectives.

Examples:• Reduce GHG emissions & air pollution• Improve health outcomes• Promote economic prosperity• Enhance quality of life• Maintain / improve urban infrastructure &

services

What is the role for the ‘Academy’/ CREATE-IISC?

A. Understand and assess existing systems, including strengths & weaknesses

B1. Identify & understand ‘disruptive’ innovations (technology, business model, policy, social)Ø Includes TEES Assessment

Research Approach

B2. Identify & develop Innovations to address the problems of our cities today, or innovations for tomorrow.

C. Create Credible, Compelling Visions for a better future

D. Define Transition Pathway(s) Capableof realizing Vision

Responding to and Directing Disruption

Disruptive Forces

TRANSITION PATHWAYS should be:

1. CREDIBLE (Technically, economically, socially)

2. COMPELLING (Desirable by key stakeholders)

3. CAPABLE of achieving the objective.

Alternative Pathway

‘False’ Objective

Ultimate Objective

Dead endpathway

Interim Objective

We are here

Defining Transition Pathway(s)

EXISTINGSYSTEM

NEWSYSTEM

TRAN

SITI

ONPA

THW

AYS

A. Understand and assess existing systems, including strengths & weaknesses

B1. Identify & understand ‘disruptive’ innovations (technology, business model, policy, social)Ø Includes TEES Assessment

Research Approach

B2. Innovate to better address the problems and develop the tools needed to assess the model

C. Create Credible, Compelling Visions for a better future

D. Define Transition Pathway(s) Capableof realizing Vision

Responding to and Directing Disruption

Disruptive Forces

E. Scenario modeling of the Pathway to assess status as credible, compelling and capable

Repeat as necessary

F. Engage and provide insights and advice to decision makers & the public.

Final Thought…

“We cannot predict the future, but we can invent it.”Dennis Gabor, Nobel Prize (Physics) (1971)

The CREATE-IISC would benefit by organizing all of the research projects around a limited number (1-3) of “collective integrated vision(s)” for what a sustainable Canadian city could look like in 2050.

Ø Rethink transportation (personal mobility and goods movement);Ø Rethink urban design and building constructionØ Rethink space heating, electricity generation, distribution and useØ Rethink waste production and managementØ Rethink resiliency to climate change impacts