integrated methods and models for assessing coastal impacts and adaptation to climate change in fiji...
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Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate
Change in Fiji and the Cook Islands(AIACC Project SIS09)
Conducted by:
Pacific Centre for Sustainable Environment and Development (PACE), The University of the South Pacific
In collaboration with:
International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikatoand the
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
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Three Linked Objectives
1. New tools for integrated assessment
2. Case study applications
3. Capacity building
Focus on: Local scale assessment Coastal settlements Risks from variability and extremes
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New Tools for Integrated Assessment
Mean Annual Precipitation 2070
Mean Annual Precipitation 2070
OBJECTIVE 1:
• Build upon the foundation of models already developed for islands of the Pacific
Suitability for Taro Growing
For example, the existing FijiCLIM model:
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• Human dimensions components• Capacity for local-scale modelling• Scenarios of future development and land use change• Local sea-level rise scenario generator• Improved coastal impact modelling• Adaptation analysis• Economic tools
New Model Features
OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)
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Progress…
OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)
Flexibility to choose area and resolution and easily input local spatial climate patterns and site data
• Human dimensions components• Capacity for local-scale modelling• Scenarios of future development and land use change• Local sea-level rise scenario generator• Improved coastal impact modelling• Adaptation analysis• Economic tools
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Progress…
OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)
• Human dimensions components• Capacity for local-scale modelling• Scenarios of future development and land use change• Local sea-level rise scenario generator• Adaptation analysis• Economic tools
Combine global, regional and local sea-level components
Local trends
Suva tide gauge dataGlobal Sea-level projectionsGlobal Sea-level projections
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Case Study Applications
OBJECTIVE 2:
• Collect data, develop baselines• Test and validate methods and models• Conduct integrated V&A assessments
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OBJECTIVE 2 (con’t.)
Viti Levu, Fiji
Natadola Beach
Veivatuloa
• Tourism site • Undeveloped• Erosion and storm surge risks
Navua
• Town site• Growth potential• Low-lying• Riverine and coastal flood risks
• Traditional Fijian village • Experiencing erosion
Case Study Applications
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Aitutaki, Cook Islands
• Rapidly developing tourism• Experiencing erosion• Storm surge risks• Risks to water supply
Case Study Applications OBJECTIVE 2 (con’t.)
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Capacity Building
• In-country training and participation• Transfer of data and tools• Incorporate methods and models into the USP
V&A Programme
OBJECTIVE 3:
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Stakeholder engagement: Country Team Approach
OBJECTIVE 3 (con’t)
Local council & leaders
Other climate projects (e.g. CIDA)
Private sector
National teamAIACC support
Scientific expertise
Data
Methods & tools
Aitutaki Climate Change TeamSIS09 Team
Improved local, risk-based assessments
A locally-driven adaptation process
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- SIS09 -
• Developed framework for local-scale modelling• Developing sea-level scenario generator• Identified case study sites• Begun process of stakeholder engagement • Identified local risks and priorities• Data collection in progress
SUMMARY OF PROGRESS
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