integrated resources plan
TRANSCRIPT
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2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCES PLAN
Southern California Water DialogueFebruary 24, 2021
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Presentation Overview
Integrated Resources Plan
History of the IRP Scenario Planning IRP Progress & Schedule
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Integrated Resources Plan (IRP)
• Blueprint for Southern California water reliability• Long-term strategy adapting to changing conditions• Diversified resource portfolio
Imported Water
Transfers/ Exchanges
StorageGround Water
Recovery
Recycling
Conservation
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1996 2004 2010 2015
History of the IRP1987 – 1992
DroughtColorado River
CutbacksSWP
Restrictions Recession & Drought
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Potable Water Demand Stable Despite Growth
0
2
4
6
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10
12
14
16
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mill
ion
Acr
e-Fe
et/M
illio
n Pe
ople
Calendar Year
Metropolitan Service Area Population
Potable Consumptive Water Demand
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The Future Is Not Predictable
?
FUTURETODAY
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Scenario Planning Approach To Examine A Range of Plausible Futures
FUTURETODAY
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2020 IRP Roadmap
Identify Drivers of Change
Construct Learning Scenarios
Develop Resource Mix
Adaptive Management Strategy
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Step 1: Drivers of ChangeIdentify Drivers of Change
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Step 1: Drivers of ChangeIdentify Drivers of Change
Climate Change
Politics and Regulations
Technological Advances
Economy and Demographics
• Sea level rise• Rainfall• Rising temperatures• Recession or economic upturn• Public’s willingness to pay• Population growth• New technologies• Stormwater expansion• Emerging contaminants• Delta issues
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Step 1: Drivers of Change Survey ResultsTop 5 Survey rankings by cohort based on percentage of responses that were Extremely or Very Important
Board Members %
Colorado River Cooperation 95%
Hydrologic Variations 90%
Stress on River Basins 90%
Emerging Regulations 86%
Direct Potable Reuse 76%
Outages and Disasters 76%
Member Agencies %
Colorado River Cooperation 91%
Emerging Regulations 87%
Direct Potable Reuse 83%
Hydrologic Variations 83%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
Stakeholders %
Hydrologic Variations 92%
Outages and Disasters 87%
Stress on River Basins 84%
Direct Potable Reuse 81%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
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Step 1: Drivers of Change Survey ResultsTop 5 Survey rankings by cohort based on percentage of responses that were Extremely or Very Important
Board Members %
Colorado River Cooperation 95%
Hydrologic Variations 90%
Stress on River Basins 90%
Emerging Regulations 86%
Direct Potable Reuse 76%
Outages and Disasters 76%
Member Agencies %
Colorado River Cooperation 91%
Emerging Regulations 87%
Direct Potable Reuse 83%
Hydrologic Variations 83%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
Stakeholders %
Hydrologic Variations 92%
Outages and Disasters 87%
Stress on River Basins 84%
Direct Potable Reuse 81%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
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Step 1: Drivers of Change Survey ResultsTop 5 Survey rankings by cohort based on percentage of responses that were Extremely or Very Important
Board Members %
Colorado River Cooperation 95%
Hydrologic Variations 90%
Stress on River Basins 90%
Emerging Regulations 86%
Direct Potable Reuse 76%
Outages and Disasters 76%
Member Agencies %
Colorado River Cooperation 91%
Emerging Regulations 87%
Direct Potable Reuse 83%
Hydrologic Variations 83%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
Stakeholders %
Hydrologic Variations 92%
Outages and Disasters 87%
Stress on River Basins 84%
Direct Potable Reuse 81%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
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Step 1: Drivers of Change Survey ResultsTop 5 Survey rankings by cohort based on percentage of responses that were Extremely or Very Important
Board Members %
Colorado River Cooperation 95%
Hydrologic Variations 90%
Stress on River Basins 90%
Emerging Regulations 86%
Direct Potable Reuse 76%
Outages and Disasters 76%
Member Agencies %
Colorado River Cooperation 91%
Emerging Regulations 87%
Direct Potable Reuse 83%
Hydrologic Variations 83%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
Stakeholders %
Hydrologic Variations 92%
Outages and Disasters 87%
Stress on River Basins 84%
Direct Potable Reuse 81%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
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Step 1: Drivers of Change Survey ResultsTop 5 Survey rankings by cohort based on percentage of responses that were Extremely or Very Important
Board Members %
Colorado River Cooperation 95%
Hydrologic Variations 90%
Stress on River Basins 90%
Emerging Regulations 86%
Direct Potable Reuse 76%
Outages and Disasters 76%
Member Agencies %
Colorado River Cooperation 91%
Emerging Regulations 87%
Direct Potable Reuse 83%
Hydrologic Variations 83%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
Stakeholders %
Hydrologic Variations 92%
Outages and Disasters 87%
Stress on River Basins 84%
Direct Potable Reuse 81%
Groundwater Contamination 78%
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Step 2: Construct Scenarios & Refine AnalysisCreated a supply – demand framework
Less Imported Supply Stability
Lower Demand on Metropolitan
Higher Demand on Metropolitan
Low Demand
Stable Imports
High DemandStable Imports
High DemandReduced Imports
A B
Low Demand Reduced ImportsC D
Greater Imported Supply Stability
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High DemandReduced Imports D
Step 2: Construct Scenarios & Refine AnalysisWorking assumptions for each Scenario
Low Demand
Stable Imports
A High DemandStable Imports
B
Low Demand Reduced ImportsC
• Slower growing economy
• Least additional supply needed
• Fewest local supply projects included
• Gradual climate impacts/fewer regulatory requirements
• Faster growing economy
• Additional supply needed for growing demands
• Additional local supply projects
• Gradual climate impacts/fewer regulatory requirements
• Slower growing economy
• Additional supply needed for loss of imported supply
• Additional local supply projects; prioritize projects with least investment needed
• Severe climate impacts/higher regulatory requirements
• Faster growing economy
• Most additional supply needed for growing demands and loss of imported supply
• Most local supply projects included
• Severe climate impacts/higher regulatory requirements
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Low Demand
Stable Imports
A High DemandStable Imports
B Low Demand Reduced ImportsC
High DemandReduced Imports D
Common Actions: Form the Basis for the 2020 IRP
Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions
Step 3: Develop A Resource MixIdentify Actions and Targets to Achieve Reliability
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Low Demand
Stable Imports
A High DemandStable Imports
B Low Demand Reduced ImportsC
High DemandReduced Imports D
Unique Actions: Basis for the Adaptive Management Plan
Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions Actions
Step 4: Adaptive Management StrategyIdentify Signposts to Inform Policy Decision Makers
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IRP Plan through April
Member Agencyinput
Consultation with Experts
Modeling for Gap Analysis
Refine Scenario Assumptions and Gap Analysis
Board Policy Discussions
Research and Confirmation
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Scenario Assumption Refinements
Demands Imported Supply Local Supply
• Colorado River• State Water Project
• Groundwater• Recycled Water• Seawater Desalination• Surface Water• Los Angeles Aqueduct
Key Areas
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Demand Refinements
• Member Agency Feedback• Feedback received through various forums
• Qualitative/Quantitative Assessment• Workshops and other meetings
• Engage with Demand Experts• Share feedback and pose questions to experts• Receive preliminary assessment of scenarios and input on issues raised
• Workshop with Board, Member Agencies, and Experts• Opportunity to review expert input and ask questions in March 2021
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Imported Water Supply Refinements
• Member Agency Feedback• Feedback received through various forums
• Qualitative/Quantitative Assessment• Workshops and other meetings
• Engage with Climate Experts• Share feedback and pose questions to experts• Receive preliminary assessment of scenarios and input on issues raised
• Workshop with Board, Member Agencies, and Experts• Opportunity to review expert input and ask questions in April 2021
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Local Supply Refinements
• Engage member agencies about local supplies through 4 separate yet concurrent tracks
• Engage with Climate Experts
Local Supplies
Groundwater Surface Water Los Angeles Aqueduct Local Projects
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Tentative Schedule
STEP 2Refine
Scenarios
Jan - Apr 2021
STEP 3Develop
Resource Mix
Mar-Jun2021
STEP 4Adaptive
Management
May- Aug 2021
Adopt IRP Report
Sep 2021
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