integrated water resources management in saskatchewan ... · syed mustakim ali shah1, saman...
TRANSCRIPT
➢ Fragmented water management according topolitical rather than catchment boundaries
➢Climate change: Uncertain water supply anddemand(Hassanzadeh et al., 2014; Nazemi & Wheater, 2014)
➢Structural limitations of existing WaterResources Management Models(Hosseini Safa, 2016)
➢Water allocation based on ‘first-in-time-first-in-right (FITFIR)’ system(Wenig et al., 2006)
➢ Food security: one of the major sources ofwater for irrigation(Pomeroy et al., 2009)
➢No basin-scale water management model isavailable which can simulate water allocationfrom Rocky mountains to Saskatchewan Delta.
Integrated Water Resources Management in Saskatchewan River Basin: Model Development and Scenario Analysis
Syed Mustakim Ali Shah1, Saman Razavi2 , Andrew Slaughter3 and Howard Wheater4
1 -M.Sc. Student, Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Email: [email protected] 2 -Assistant Professor, Email: [email protected] 3 - Visiting Professor,
Email: [email protected] 4 - Professor, Email: [email protected]; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Canada
Study Background Process and Methodology
Preliminary Results Future Implications
The model, when fully developed, will provide the platform for Economic evaluation of
water management policy and uncertainty analysis of demand and supply
www.usask.ca/water
References1. Hassanzadeh, E., Elshorbagy, A., Wheater, H., & Gober, P. (2014). Managing water in complex systems: An integrated water resources model
for Saskatchewan, Canada. Environmental Modelling & Software, 58, 12-26.2. Hosseini Safa, H. (2016). Integrated Water Resources Management Modelling For The Oldman River Basin Using System Dynamics Approach:
A master’s thesis in Sustainable Environmental Management, University of Saskatchewan, Canada3. Labadie, J. W. (2006). MODSIM: decision support system for integrated river basin management.4. Nazemi, A., & Wheater, H. S. (2014). How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource
systems? Advances in water resources, 63, 131-142.5. Pomeroy, J. W., Fang, X., & Williams, B. (2009). Impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan's water resources. Centre for Hydrology,
University of Saskatchewan.6. Wenig, M. M., Kwasniak, A. J., & Quinn, M. S. (2006). Water under the bridge? The role of instream flow needs (IFNs) determinations in
Alberta’s river management. In Water: Science and Politics. Edited by H. Epp and D. Ealey. Proceedings of the Conference Held by the AlbertaSociety of Professional Biologists on March (pp. 25-28).
AcknowledgementsThe Authors deeply thankful to Dr. Howard Wheater, Professor, School of Environment and Sustainability; Dr. Amin A. Elshorbagy,Professor, Civil and Geological Engineering; Dr. James A. Kells, Professor, Civil and Geological Engineering; Dr. Patricia Gober,Professor, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy and Leila Eamen, PhD Student, School of Environment andSustainability for their excellent guidance and enormous support during this research.
R² = 0.9892
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Mo
dsi
m A
lloca
tio
n (
mm
)
Irrigation Demand (mm)
Irrigation in Alberta
R² = 0.9991
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
WR
MM
Allo
cati
on
(m
m)
Irrigation Demand (mm)
Irrigation in Saskatchewan
R² = 1
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
WR
MM
Allo
cati
on
(cm
s)
Major Water Demand (cms)
Major Withdrawal in Saskatchewan
R² = 1
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Mo
dsi
m A
lloca
tio
n (
cms)
Major Water Demand (cms)
Major Withdrawal in Saskatchewan
Research Purpose
➢ A software package developed at ColoradoState University for river basin managementand decision support.(Labadie, 2006)
➢ Important Features: freeware, complex riverbasin configurations, conditional operatingrules, water rights and storage contracts,large number of priorities (1-5,000), scenarioanalysis and customization of MODSIM code.
➢Water allocation mechanism: network flowoptimization.
➢Longest continuously maintained river basinmanagement software package currentlyavailable.(Labadie, 2006)
The aim of this study is to integrate waterresources components across the entire SaskRBinto one modelling platform, in line with theaims of the Integrated Modelling Program forPrediction and Management of Change inCanada’s Major River Basins (IMPC), to facilitateIntegrated Water Resources Management(IWRM) in the basin.
R² = 0.9897
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Mo
dsi
m A
lloca
tio
n (
cms)
Major Water Demand (cms)
Major Withdrawal in Alberta
MODSIM Decision Support system
R² = 0.9992
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Mo
dsi
m A
lloca
tio
n (
mm
)
Irrigation Demand (mm)
Irrigation in Saskatchewan
MODSIM DSS
Credibility and Performance
Scenario Development &
Analysis
✓ Water Balance of the System✓ MODSIM and WRMM
Operations
Hydrometeorological Data
Physical & Operational Properties
System Reliability, Reversibility and Vulnerability
Future scenarios of hydro-climatechange and irrigation expansionfrom CCRN outputs
Metrics of the System’s
Performance
TransAlta
Model
Southern Tributaries
Model
Highwood
Diversion
Plan Model
SSR
Alberta
Model
SSR SK
Model
NSR
Model
Manitoba
Figure: MODSIM network structure with artificial nodes and links (Labadie, 2006)
549
551
553
555
557
559
Jan
/70
Jun
/71
No
v/7
2
Ap
r/74
Sep
/75
Feb
/77
Jul/
78
Dec
/79
May
/81
Oct
/82
Mar
/84
Au
g/8
5
Jan
/87
Jun
/88
No
v/8
9
Ap
r/91
Sep
/92
Feb
/94
Jul/
95
Dec
/96
May
/98
Oct
/99
Mar
/01
Au
g/0
2
Jan
/04
Ele
vati
on
(m
)
L.Dief_MODSIM L. Dief_WRMM
Oldman
Red Deer
Bow
Southern Tributaries Model
TransAlta Model
Highwood Diversion Plan Model
Source: Partners for The Saskatchewan River Basin
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1/0
7/2
8
1/0
7/3
0
1/0
7/3
2
1/0
7/3
4
1/0
7/3
6
1/0
7/3
8
1/0
7/4
0
1/0
7/4
2
1/0
7/4
4
1/0
7/4
6
1/0
7/4
8
1/0
7/5
0
1/0
7/5
2
1/0
7/5
4
1/0
7/5
6
1/0
7/5
8
1/0
7/6
0
1/0
7/6
2
1/0
7/6
4
1/0
7/6
6
1/0
7/6
8
1/0
7/7
0
1/0
7/7
2
1/0
7/7
4
1/0
7/7
6
1/0
7/7
8
1/0
7/8
0
1/0
7/8
2
1/0
7/8
4
1/0
7/8
6
1/0
7/8
8
1/0
7/9
0
1/0
7/9
2
1/0
7/9
4
1/0
7/9
6
1/0
7/9
8
1/0
7/0
0
Flo
w (
cms)
SSR Flow to Saskatchewan MODSIM WRMM
SSR
NSR