integrating the excellent wind resources in … · 3 integrating the excellent wind resources in...

INTEGRATING THE EXCELLENT WIND RESOURCES IN NORTHWEST

EURASIA FOR A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY IN EUROPE

Dmitrii Bogdanov and Christian BreyerLUT School of Energy SystemsLappeenranta University of Technology, Finland

NEO-CARBON ENERGY 7th RESEARCHERS’ SEMINARLappeenranta, January 25, 2017

2 Integrating the excellent wind resources in Northwest Eurasia for a sustainable energy supply in EuropeDmitrii Bogdanov [email protected]

Agenda

MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemsAlternatives to 100% RESummary


Motivation

• All countries should transform their energy systems towards carbon-neutrality to limit global warming to 2 ºC since the preindustrial epoch.

• The only sustainable solution is to build the 100% Renewable energy based system

• Europe is one of the most densely populated regions with very high energy consumption per capita and huge capacities of RE needs to be installed in future

• RE generation is area extensive, so huge area must be utilized to reach the 100% RE aim. That can provoke even higher social resistance towards renewables.

• Two options to decrease local area utilization are offshore wind and electricity imports from regions with much lower population density.

• For Europe it can be feasible to import large amounts of wind energy generated in Northwest Russia – huge region with relatively small population density and good wind conditions.


Agenda

MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemsAlternatives to 100% RESummary


MethodologySystem configuration

• For Europe and Northwest Russia regions optimal 100% RE based energy systems were simulated

• For each European region it was calculated the length of a HVDC connection from NW Russia


MethodologyModel description

Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources,• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region,• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, • least cost energy supply for the given constraints.

LUT Energy model, key features• linear optimization model• hourly resolution• multi-node approach• flexibility and expandability

Input data• historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind

speed and hydro precipitation• available sustainable resources for biomass and

geothermal energy• synthesized power load data• gas and water desalination demand• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants• efficiency of energy conversion processes• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources• nodes and interconnections configuration


MethodologyFull system

Renewable energy sources• PV rooftop• PV ground-mounted• PV single-axis tracking • Wind onshore/ offshore• Hydro run-of-river• Hydro dam• Geothermal energy• CSP• Waste-to-energy• Biogas• Biomass

Electricity transmission• node-internal AC transmission• interconnected by HVDC lines

Storage options• Batteries • Pumped hydro storage• Adiabatic compressed air storage• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas

• Water electrolysis• Methanation• CO2 from air• Gas storage

Energy Demand• Electricity• Water Desalination• Industrial Gas


Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)

Technology Capex [€/kW]

Opex fix [€/(kW a)]

Opex var[€/kWh]

Lifetime [a]

PV rooftop 813 12 0 35PV fixed-tilted 550 8 0 35PV single-axis 620 9 0 35Wind onshore 1000 20 0 25Hydro Run-of-River * 2560 115.2 0.005 50Hydro dam * 1650 66 0.003 50Geothermal energy 4938 89 0 30Water electrolysis 380 13 0.001 30Methanation 234 5 0 30CO2 scrubbing 356 14 0.0013 30CCGT 775 19 0.002 30OCGT 475 14 0.011 30Biomass PP 2500 175 0.001 30Wood gasifier CHP 1500 20 0.001 40Biogas CHP 370 14.8 0.001 20MSW incinerator 5240 235.8 0.007 20Steam turbine 700 14 0 30

Technology Capex [€/(m3 a)]

Opex fix [€/(m3 a)]

Opex var[€/(m3 a)]

Lifetime [a]

Water desalination 2.23 0.096 0 30

Generation costsTechnology Energy/Power Ratio [h]Battery 6PHS 8A-CAES 100Gas storage 80*24

Efficiency [%]Battery 90PHS 85A-CAES 83Gas storage 100Water electrolysis 84CO2 scrubbing 78Methanation 77CCGT 58OCGT 43Geothermal energy 24MSW incinerator 34Biogas CHP 40Steam turbine 42CSP collector 51

* hydro power plants older than 50 years are taken into accountwith refurbishment capex of 500 €/kW for 30 years


Technology Capex [€/kWh]

Opex fix [€/(kWh a)]

Opex var[€/kWh]

Lifetime [a]

Battery 150 10 0.0002 10/20PHS 70 11 0.0002 50A-CAES 31 0.4 0.0012 40Gas storage 0.05 0.001 0 50

Technology Capex [€/(m3 h)]

Opex fix [€/(m3 a)]

Opex var[€/(m3 h)]

Lifetime [a]

Water storage 65 1 0 50

Technology Capex [€/(m3 km)]

Opex fix[€/(m3 km a)]

Opex var[kWh/(m3 km)]

Lifetime [a]

Horizontal pumping 15 2.3 0.0004 30Vertical pumping 23 2.4 0.0036 30

Technology Capex [€/(kW km)]

Opex fix [€/(kW km a)]

Opex var[€/kW]

Lifetime [a]

Transmission line 0.612 0.0075 0 50

Technology Capex [€/kW]

Opex fix [€/(kW a)]

Opex var[€/kW]

Lifetime [a]

Converter station 180 1.8 0 50

Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)

Storage and transmission costs

WACC = 7%


Agenda

MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemAlternatives to 100% RESummary


ResultsOnshore wind generation in 100% RE Europe

RegionWind onshore

installedcapacity

Wind onshore potential utilization Wind onshore FLH

Wind onshore LCOE

GW % h €/MWhTotal 849 39 3146 34NO 42 38 3525 30DK 14 100 4500 24SE 8 5 2631 40FI 22 20 2642 40BLT 13 22 3458 31PL 49 46 3041 35IBE 49 25 2620 40FR 151 82 3169 33BNL 25 100 3893 27BRI 106 100 4623 23DE 112 93 3355 32CRS 25 58 2550 41AUH 10 16 2056 51BKN-W 2 3 1725 61BKN-E 25 16 1953 54IT 47 46 2006 53CH 0 1 1772 60TR 90 34 2441 43UA 54 25 2658 40


ResultsOnshore wind generation in NW Russia

Region

Wind onshoreinstalledcapacity

Wind onshore potential

utilization

Wind onshoreFLH

Wind onshore LCOE

GW % h EUR/MWhRussia NW 74 13 3381 31

• Only 13% of wind onshore potential utilized to cover NW Russia and neighboring Eurasian regions demand.

• In most of European regions with good wind condition more than a quarter of the potential is utilized.

• In countries such as Britain, France, Germany, Benelux and Denmark 80% to 100% of the potential is used.


ResultsOffshore wind potential

Offshore wind turbines LCOE (SWT36 at 90m) Offshore wind turbines FLh (SWT36 at 90m)

• Cost of wind offshore generation is much higher than onshore wind generation LCOE• Economically competitive offshore wind capacities are very limited.


ResultsImported wind energy LCOE calculation

Region Local Wind

onshore LCOE

LCOE system Distance Losses

Imported Wind

onshore LCOE

€/MWh €/MWh km % €/MWhNO 30 59 1720 4.2 46DK 24 48 2420 5.3 51SE 40 116 1680 4.1 46FI 40 60 900 2.8 40BLT 31 51 1140 3.2 42PL 35 48 1710 4.1 46IBE 40 57 4000 7.8 63FR 33 49 3000 6.2 56BNL 27 64 2700 5.7 53BRI 23 41 3000 6.2 56DE 32 52 2100 4.8 49CRS 41 59 2250 5.0 50AUH 51 91 2400 5.2 51BKN-W 61 43 2600 5.6 53BKN-E 54 76 2900 6.0 55IT 53 60 3200 6.5 57CH 60 138 2900 6.0 55TR 43 64 2900 6.0 55UA 40 62 1650 4.0 45

• For all the regions imported wind energy is more expensive than local. Mostly due to HVDC lines cost.

• Only for Finland imported energy slightly cheaper. (-0.17%)

• For most of regions imported wind energy is cheaper than system LCOE


Agenda



LCOE of alternatives are NO alternative

source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174

Key insights:Wind energy transported through whole Europe will be still cheaper than new nuclear or coal/gas-CCS technologyFor the case of Germany imported wind energy will be still cheaper (49 €/MWh for 2030) than local offshore wind generation

Preliminary NCE resultsclearly indicate 100% RE systems cost about55-70 €/MWh for 2030 cost assumptions on comparable basis

source: Breyer Ch., et al., 2016. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios, 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June 20-24


Agenda



Summary

• The wind potential in Northwest Russia is huge and electricity generation cost is low.

• The potential of offshore wind turbines with LCOE less than 50 EUR/MWh is around 2 GW for 2030 cost assumptions

• Offshore wind generation in Europe is not cost competitive compared to local onshore wind generation and wind energy imports from Eurasia for 2030 cost assumptions

• Due to high electricity transmission costs electricity import from Northwest Russia to European regions is higher in cost than local onshore wind generation

• With the applied societal constrains on wind energy utilization (up to 4% of land area can be utilized for wind farms) local wind generation in European regions is not fully utilized. Only in case of much lower social acceptance of local wind power installations the demand for wind energy import may rise

Thanks for your attention …… and to the team!

The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14.

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