INTEGRATING VARIABILITY WITHIN AN ERA OF UNCERTAINTY: CLIMATE, ENERGY & THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

DEVON O.NIEL GARDNER

Knutsford Court Hotel26 November 2019

Sustainable Development

ECONOMIC SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL

Performance Resilience

GDP

Growth Rate

Productivity

Growth RateDiversification Innovation

CLIMATE RISKS

It’s hotter

~ 1 degree rise since pre-industrialized times

21 more really hot days and nights/year

Earlier and longer summers

Hot days

Hot nights

Rain is more variable

Very variable rainfall pattern; some places getting wetter, some getting drier

‘nature’ of rain is changing

Total Rainfall

Intense Rainfall

Stephenson et al (2014)

THE MANIFESTATIONS

More extremes

Changing climate leadsto changing weather andextreme events

1980-1999

2000 - present

1971 base of beach

2003 base of beach

200 m

Higher Sea Levels

Sea levels are rising atabout a rate of 3.5 mm/yr(post 1993)

• Temperature Rise• Increased thermal stress on Caribbean coral reefs, within the next twenty years will degrade

the services they provide

• The total ecosystem services provided to the tourism and fisheries sectors by coral reefswithin the Caribbean is valued at US$ 1.5 – 3.5 billion per annum

• Sea-level Rise• Over 2,700 sq. km of land loss within The Bahamas [US$ 70 billion]

• Over 100,000 people displaced from coastal areas in The Bahamas, Belize, Suriname andGuyana [US$ 1.8 billion]

• Sixteen major tourism resorts could be lost [US$ 1.6 billion]

• Over 1% of agricultural lands lost [The Bahamas, Jamaica, and Suriname]

• Significant loss of ports (including airports) and road infrastructure [US$ 1.3 billion]

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC COST

In general, GDP losses of US$ 1.2 billionper year [6% in Suriname; 5% in TheBahamas; 3% in Belize and Guyana]

DISASTER RISKS

Occurrence of hydro-met disasters in the Caribbean (1980 – 2017)Source: EM-DAT 2017

Damages due to hydro-met disasters in the Caribbean (1980 – 2017)Source: EM-DAT 2017

Marsh Harbour, The BahamasSeptember 2019

Central Trinidad, Trinidad & TobagoOctober 2018

Roseau, DominicaSeptember 2017

St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin IslandsSeptember 2017

• In generalImpact assessments performed throughout the Caribbean for twenty-seven (27) climate related disasters collated losses totaling more than US$ 25 billion for the period 1972 –2010

Bello et. al., 2015

• Specifically• Hurricane Ivan [2004]: Losses of over 200% of GDP in Grenada's – US$ 34 million

in losses and damage to electricity infrastructure

• Hurricane Tomas [2010]: Losses of US$ 336.2 million (43% of GDP) in Saint Lucia –USD 3 million in losses and damage to the electricity infrastructure

• Christmas Eve Floods [2013]: Losses of US$ 108 million (15% of GDP) in St. Vincent – US$ 8.5 million in losses and damage to the electricity infrastructure

• Tropical Storm Erika [2015]: produced US$ 483 million (90 % of GDP) in Dominica – US$ 2.5 million in losses and damage to electricity infrastructure

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC COST

ENERGY RISKS

Country Dependence on imports, % Imported energy resources

Antigua and Barbuda 100% (2016) Refined petroleum products

Barbados 90% (2017) Refined petroleum products

Belize 63% (2016) Refined petroleum products, electricity

Dominica 92% (2016) Refined petroleum products

Grenada 93% (2016) Refined petroleum products

Guyana 97% (2017) Refined petroleum products

Haiti 85% (2016) Refined petroleum products

Jamaica 91% (2016) Petroleum, Refined petroleum products

Montserrat 100% (2017) Refined petroleum products

Saint Lucia 98% (2016) Refined petroleum products

St. Kitts and Nevis 87% (2017) Refined petroleum products

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 95% (2017) Refined petroleum products

Suriname Less than 5% (2017) Petroleum

Trinidad and Tobago 0%

OIL IMPORT SITUATION, CARICOM

CARICOM Average87%

Global Average21%

GLOBAL OIL PRICE TRENDS

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

CARICOM ENERGY SITUATION C-SERMS Targets (RE Generation)

20127.2%

201710.7%

2022

28%

2027

47%

2027

33%

C-SERMS Target (Energy-use Intensity)

2012~14,000 BTU per

USD (GDP)

AT A GLANCE

ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY STATUS

THE APPROACH

ENERGY EFFICIENCY: A RESOURCE OPTION

THE PATHWAY FOR THE REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY STRATEGY

Situation regarding energy use and energy efficiency within the Region is baselined

Energy efficiency potentials in selected

productive sectors and subsectors identified

Regional and National EE targets, as well as

disaggregated targets for key sectors, established

Action plan, which identifies a core set of

policies, regulations, and market promotion

mechanisms required to achieve targets, is

developed

Implementation support for the action plan is

provided

THE CARICOM REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY BUILDING CODE

https://shop.iccsafe.org/2018-caricom-regional-energy-efficiency-building-code.html

• The CREEBC intends to improve building efficiency byaddressing building envelopes and energy consumingequipment

• The CREEBC was endorsed by the CROSQ Council inBridgetown, Barbados on 4 April 2018

• The CREEBC was approved by CARICOM Energy Ministers inGeorgetown, Guyana on 19 April 2018

• The code will be updated every 6 years

• The 2018 CREEBC is an adaptation of the InternationalEnergy Conservation Code, 2018 Edition, which includesthe ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016

• The Caribbean Application Document (CAD) has beenembedded in the IECC 2018

• It establishes minimum energy efficiency requirements forbuildings using prescriptive and performance-related provisionsinclusive of building envelope, cooling systems, ventilation,pumping, lighting, and the service hater-heating systems inbuildings

THE CARICOM REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY BUILDING CODE

• Allows the use of building simulation software for codecompliance paths

• Makes provisions for daylighting zoning

• Increase room air conditioners and refrigeration efficiencystringency

• Improves maintenance practices by requiring maintenanceinformation, equipment commissioning reporting, anddocumentation requirements

THE CARICOM REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY BUILDING CODE

CREEBC: CHAPTERS STRUCTURE

COMMERCIAL PROVISIONS

1. Scope and Administration

2. Definitions

3. General Requirements

4. Commercial Energy Efficiency

5. Existing Buildings

6. References Standards

RESIDENTIAL PROVISIONS

1. Scope and Administration

2. Definitions

3. General Requirements

4. Residential Energy Efficiency

5. Existing Buildings

6. References Standards

CREEBC: SCOPE AND ADMINISTRATION

• Provisions for application, enforcement and administration

• Section includes jurisdiction application language

• Defines which buildings and changes are required to complywith the code

• Describes code officials roles and professional qualifications forbuilding professionals

CREEBC: GENERAL REQUIREMENTSClimate Zones

• Includes a Tropical Climate Zone for islands located in thearea between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn

CREEBC: ENERGY EFFICIENCY

• Requirements for building systems that impact energy use incommercial and residential buildings

• Promote building energy efficiency by establishing requirementsfor: Building envelope, cooling system, ventilation, pumping,lighting, and the service water heating systems in buildings

• Does not directly cover plug loads

CREEBC: Existing Buildings (Retrofit)

• Improve building maintenance and energy upgrades whichimpact energy end use in existing buildings.

• Specific requirements based on type of building upgrade:• Additions

• Alterations

• Repairs

• Changes of occupancy

• Historic buildings

CARICOM Member States

EE Target per Sector (%)

Transport Residential Industry Public Commercial and Tourism

Extraction, Agriculture, Mining and

Construction

Antigua & Barbuda 40 30 45 53 46

Bahamas1 23 46 45 50 48 45

Barbados 20 30 42 50 59

Belize 16 28 45 40 52

Dominica - 56 51 59 50

Grenada 21 11 46 32 38

Guyana2 13 9 50 53

Haiti - 10 34 50 15

Jamaica 11 38 14 34 48 4

Montserrat - 45 43 67 49

Saint Kitts and Nevis 44 35 18 39 52

Saint Lucia - 46 49 37 58

SVG 25 29 47 50 57

Suriname 20 23 23 50 23 44

Trinidad and Tobago 20 29 35 50 - 5

Priority Sectors

Not applicable or no data available

1 For Bahamas, the data in “Public” is for streetlighting only, while the data shown in “Commercial and Tourism” also includes government buildings. 2 For Guyana, the data shown in “Comercial in Tourism” also includes the public sector.

Priority sectors were defined using the sector weight in total energy demand, potential annual savings as of 2035 and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs)

PRIORITY SECTORS IDENTIFIES WITHIN THE REGIONAL EE STRATEGY

ECONOMIC SOCIAL

CLIMATE RESILIENCE PEOPLE

HEALTH

Just do it

CONCLUSIONS

“For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them.”

-Aristotle

DR. DEVON GARDNERCARICOM Secretariat

Turkeyen, Georgetown, Guyana

Phone: +592-222-0001 ext. 3521

Mobile: +592-673-2930

Email: devon.gardner@caricom.org

Skype: devon.gardner