IGES Conference Report-Regional Centre-2011-01

Proceedings of Consultative Meeting on

Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development in Mongolia

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

June 17-18, 2010

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan

Tel: +81 46 855 3700 Fax: +81 46 855 3709

e-mail: iges@iges.or.jp

Website: http//www.iges.or.jp

Integration of Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development in Mongolia

Copyright © 2012 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Reference

IGES, 2012. Proceedings of Consultative Meeting on Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development in Mongolia. Hayama: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

The full report is available online at www.iges.or.jp and www.apan-gan.net. Materials may be reproduced with the written permission from IGES.

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PREFACE

This proceedings report is the outcome of the first country-level consultative meeting by the United Nations Environment programme (UNEP), the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN), Keio University, and the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies at Ulaanbaatar in June, 2010. It was the first in a series of meetings aimed at highlighting and solving country-level issues by encouraging deliberations among an eclectic gathering of policy-makers, stakeholders, academia, adaptation experts and members of the civil society. Hosted by the Mongolian Government, the meeting on “Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development of Mongolia” could not have come at a more opportune time.

Mongolia is one of the world’s largest land-locked countries with a rich ecological diversity. With the Gobi Desert, abundant mineral deposits, and rugged herdsmen whose traditional knowledge of the indigenous flora and fauna has helped them survive for centuries, make for an intriguing case for adaptation practitioners. But it’s a complicated case, for things are in a state of flux, both in terms of the economy and the environment due to the opening up of the mineral sector and global warming. Temperatures in Mongolia have risen by 2.170C since 1940 and are projected to increase by up to 50C by the end of the 21st century. This coupled with short, heavy rains instead of long-lasting ones, is intensifying desertification and threatening the herdsmen’s traditional way of life, thus affecting the social-ecological security of this young nation. Mining, a sector set to boom, comes with its own resultant hazards.

This meeting brought to the fore the risks faced by the country from climate change, the gaps in its ability to weather these changes despite government policies in this direction, and the steps required to ensure sustainable development that would take care of its social-ecological health.

The participants called for merging traditional knowledge honed over centuries with modern knowhow such as renewable energy, communications and information technology, to come up with a holistic win-win solution.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We appreciate the contribution of Keio University, Mongolian Development Institute, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Dryland Sustainability Institute and Office of the President of Mongolia for hosting this consultation meeting. We are grateful to Mr. L. Tsedendamba, Mr. S. Davaanyam and Mr. M. Altanbagana for preparing this summary report. We thank our partner institutions - the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Sida (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) for their valuable support. We express our sincere gratitude to the Ministry of Environment, Japan (MoEJ) for funding the study.

Table of Contents PREFACE i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii

Opening Remarks 1

Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network 3

Key Note Presentations 5

The Climate Change Policy and Measures in Mongolia 5

Climate Change and Sustainable Development of Mongolia: Summary of Papers 11

Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability 23

Climate Change in Mongolia 23

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Mongolia 30

Vulnerability Assessment of the Mongolian Rangeland Ecosystems 37

Cross-sectored Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change 58

Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development 64

Approaches to Mainstreaming Climate Change into Development and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation as an Emerging Approach 64

Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia (2007-2021) in Context of Climate Change Adaptation 66

New Policy on Combating Desertification in Mongolia 77

Technology Transfer Role in Alleviation of Climate Change Impact in Mongolia 83

Opportunities for Synergies between Climate Change, Desertification, Conservation, and Human Developmentat Multiple Scales 99

Summary 125

Final Session Summary: Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development 125

Closing remarks 126

Appendixes 128

Appendix 1. Agenda of Consultative Meeting 128

Appendix 2. Protocol of the Final Summary Session (by S. Davaanyam) 131

Appendix 3. Summary of working group discussion on “Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment” 134

Appendix 4. Summary of Working Group Discussion on Social-economic Vulnerability 135

Appendix 5. Vegetation Trend Analysis 137

Appendix 6. Gap Analysis 140

Appendix 7. Vulnerability Gap Survey Results Among the Consultative Meeting Participants 152

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1. Opening Remarks

D. Battulga

Head, the Office of the President of Mongolia

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen!

Dear Guests,

I would like to congratulate all of you for your participation in the consultative meeting on “Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development of Mongolia”. We are pleased to organise this meeting in collaboration with the UNEP, the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network to Climate Change, the Keio University, and the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

The President of Mongolia and the Government of Mongolia fully support the UN activities on climate change. Mongolia joined the UN Convention on Climate Change in 1992, and signed the Kyoto Protocol.

Climate change has become a major challenge among global, environmental and other problems facing the humanity. Mongolia is located in the most fast-warming zone of the Earth. A study by scientists confirms that dry lands in Mongolia are becoming drier due to the impact of global warming. Climate change is speeding up land degradation, depletion of water resources, glacier and permafrost melting, and has already started to have a negative impact on animal husbandry, agriculture, human well-being and the economy of Mongolia. This is making Mongolia, with its developing economy, more vulnerable to climate change.

Ts. Elbegdorj, President of Mongolia, gives high importance to climate change related issues. Therefore, he actively participated in the Summit on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December 2009. The President also supported the organisation of this meeting on “Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development of Mongolia,” under his auspices because of its paramount importance for Mongolia. I would like to inform that this consultative meeting coincides with the first-year anniversary of President Elbegdorj’s election.

Mongolia is facing multiple environmental problems such as desertification, air pollution, loss of biological diversity, and dwindling water resources. Therefore, specific goals were promoted in the “National Development Comprehensive Policy Based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG)”, approved by the Mongolian Ih Hural (Parliament) by Resolution No. 12 in 2008. Environmental degradation is an unsustainable pathway. Green development, environmentally -friendly technology and sustainable governance—this is the direction we are taking for our

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development. It is necessary to follow sustainable development pathway at this moment when the mining sector is about to boom in Mongolia. That’s why we recently set up the Department of Environmental Science and Policy at the Mongolian Development Institute, which is under the Office of the President of Mongolia.

Adaptation to climate change is the key to sustainable development to achieve the MDGs. The Asia Pacific Network on Climate Change Adaptation is also new. We are pleased that you selected Mongolia as the first country for holding the country-level consultative meeting.

Dear ladies and gentlemen,

Good luck and we wish you productive participation and brainstorming in the consultative meeting.

Thank you for your attention!

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Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network Masataka Watanabe

Chair, Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN)

Professor, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University

Email: masawata@nies.go.jp

Introduction

The impact of climate change is an unprecedented and increasing global threat to life, livelihoods and life-supporting systems. Even if the most stringent mitigation measures were put in place today, the impacts of climate change would still continue for centuries. There is an urgent need for immediate and adequate actions to adapt to climate change before its impacts become unmanageable. At the same time we have to prepare for long-term climate impacts. Examples of these impacts include severe water scarcity and frequent floods, agricultural failure and food shortages, and accelerated loss of biodiversity and depleted ecosystem services.

Adaptation is without a doubt an essential response to climate change from now on to the next centuries. However, significant barriers and constraints persist for adaptation efforts in developing countries, including the lack of the necessary finance, knowledge and technology, and key adaptive capacity. One of the keys to reducing vulnerability to climate change is effective implementation of adaptation and capacity building actions. Adaptation is knowledge-intensive and access to relevant and usable knowledge is an important prerequisite for successful adaptation efforts. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), in partnership with key UN and other international organisations, governments, foundations and research institutions, facilitated the development of the Global Adaptation Network (GAN) in response to the call by UNFCCC SBSTA at its 28th Session.

Vision and Role of APAN

The first regional network under the GAN is the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN) which was launched on October 2009 in Bangkok by the Prime Minister of Thailand. APAN is a key regional initiative to build climate resilience of vulnerable human systems, ecosystems and economies through the mobilisation of knowledge and technologies to support adaptation capacity building, policy-setting, planning and best practices in Asia and the Pacific. Specifically, APAN aims to generate and share knowledge, experiences and information for improved capacity and effective implementation of adaptation to reduce the impacts of climate change; to facilitate application of appropriate knowledge to adaptation programs/projects; to inform development planning and investment decisions to support sustainable adaptation approaches; to assist developing countries to access adaptation finance mechanisms; and to strengthen the capacity of national and local planners, communities, institutions and development partners in adaptation. The geographic scope of APAN covers the five sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific

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region, including Central Asia, Northeast Asia, Pacific, South Asia and Southeast Asia. The Steering Committee is chaired by Prof. Masataka Watanabe, Keio University of Japan and provides strategic orientation and guidance on APAN activities. It is made up of 11 members comprising a chairperson and two members from each of the five sub-regions of Asia-Pacific; with each sub-region represented by a member of the scientific community and the government to ensure APAN’ s science-policy interface.

The Regional Hub serves as a regional knowledge center for adaptation and collaborates with sub-regional nodes and national implementing partners for delivery of the relevant Network activities. The Regional Hub is co-hosted by the Asian Institute of Technology/UNEP Regional Resource Center for Asia-Pacific (AIT/UNEP RRC.AP) and the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES).

Activities of APAN

Key activities in the inception phase (Oct 2009–Dec 2011) focus on the development of ‘flagship’ products to build credibility and stimulate demands for adaptation services and products such as:

1) Identification of gaps and needs in current adaptation knowledge, e.g. assessment of climate information needs in critical sectors;

2) Development of tools and methods for good adaptation practices, e.g. standardised methodology for designing and assessing adaptation and development projects;

3) Scientific capacity development for vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning, science-based decision making strategies, i.e. training of trainers in cooperation with the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES);

4) Knowledge and lessons sharing at the sub-regional and regional levels through forums and on-line portal.

Consultative Meeting in Mongolia

As a first step of APAN’s activity, we selected Mongolia as the first country to organise the consultative meeting at country level, because Mongolia is very sensitive to climate change due to its geographic location and socio-economic condition such as pastoral animal husbandry, nomadic way of life and rain-fed agriculture. Climate change altered Mongolian ecosystem notably which caused desertification, water resources shortage and natural disasters leading to great losses in economic activities. I hope this consultative meeting will identify the gaps and needs in adaptation knowledge in Mongolia and provide a road-map for good adaptation practices in Mongolia. Also, the knowledge and lessons learnt from Mongolia would be applicable to other similar ecosystems such as the ones in the Central Asia. I would like to congratulate everyone on the great success of this consultative meeting on “Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development in Mongolia”.

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2. Key Note Presentations

The Climate Change Policy and Measures in Mongolia Damdin Dagvadorj, Ph.D.

Special Envoy for Climate Change, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia

Email: dagvadorj@mne.gov.mn

Background

Climate change poses great challenges to Mongolia which is one of the countries most vulnerable in the world to adverse impacts of climate change because of its geographical location, weather and climate conditions as well as specific features of socio-economic development. Mongolia also has limited human, technical and financial capacities to solve the multi-faceted threat caused by climate change. Actions to address climate change challenges must therefore be ultimately linked to sustainable development and economic growth across a variety of sectors, including agriculture, grassland management, energy, industry, transport, and health and water resources. Effective solutions require well-coordinated national policies and priorities that are developed with the engagement of a variety of government stakeholders, such as different ministries and agencies as well as other relevant stakeholders, such as the academia, private sector, NGOs and civil society.

Climate change is already a reality in Mongolia. The results of observations at meteorological stations in Mongolia show that the country’s annual mean temperature has risen by 2.1°C between 1940 and 2007. Scientists are warning that climate in Mongolia will continue to change dramatically during the 21st century. Because of specific conditions of the country, Mongolia is likely to be more heavily influenced by global climate change. The impact of climate change on the ecological systems and the natural resources would have a dramatic effect on almost all sectors of the national economy and all spheres of social life, i.e. it will touch all aspects of the life support system. Climate change response measures will help to address the inevitable need to adapt to climate change and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, in order to meet the requirements of Mongolia’s sustainable development strategies. Mongolia must strengthen its ability to adapt to a changing climate.

Integrating Climate Change Policy into National and Sectored Development Programs

The Parliament of Mongolia has passed several laws directed toward environmental protection, including the State Policy on Environment (1997), which forms the legal basis for the protection of environment and Mongolia’s natural resources. In 1995, the Mongolian Environmental Action Plan was presented. The plan of action outlines the country’s priorities for environment and resource management. The country has formulated a number of plans such as Mongolian Action Program for the 21st Century (MAP 21), the National Action Plan to Combat Desertification, the

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National Biodiversity Action Plan, and the Action Program to Protect Air, and the National Action Program to Protect the Ozone Layer. The MAP 21, in particular, includes concrete recommendations related to adaptation to climate change and the mitigation of GHGs emissions. The Law on Air (1995 and 2010) and the Law on Environmental Protection (1995, 2007) are the main legal instruments for the protection of air and environment.

The Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy (MDG-based CNDS) of Mongolia, which was approved by the State Great Khural (The Parliament) in 2008, identifies the need “to create a sustainable environment for development by promoting capacities and measures on adaptation to climate change, halting imbalances in the country’s ecosystems and protecting them”. The MDG-based CNDS identifies six key strategic objectives of the country’s development, and one of these objectives is aimed at promoting the capacity to adapt to climate change and desertification, and to reduce their negative impacts.

At the international level, Mongolia has joined 14 environment-related UN Conventions and Treaties, such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD). The UN implementing and specialised agencies like UNDP, World Bank and UNEP support capacity strengthening of the relevant national and local institutions to fulfill their commitments and provisions received under these conventions; to implement and monitor related policies; and to enhance coordination among them. International organisations and partner countries also cooperate with local governments, civil society organisations, research organisations and the media for a wider outreach of environmental awareness campaigns.

In order to comply with the obligations and commitments under the UNFCCC as well as to address challenges relevant to climate change, Mongolia has developed its National Action Program on Climate Change. The program was approved by the Government in 2000 and updated in 2010. The action program includes the national policy and strategy to tackle the adverse impacts of climate change and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

The Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change (NAPCC) approved in 2000 is aimed not only at meeting the UNFCCC obligations, but also at setting priorities for action and to integrate climate change concerns into other national and sectored development plans and programs. The NAPCC is based on the pre-feasibility studies on climate change impact and adaptation assessment, GHG inventories, and GHG mitigation analysis. This Action Program includes a set of measures, actions and strategies that enable vulnerable sectors to adapt to potential climate change and to mitigate GHGs emissions. The starting point was that these measures should not adversely affect sustainable socio-economic development. Recently, the NAPCC has been updated, taking into account the latest global and national developments of policies, research and information on climate change.

The Government has established an inter-disciplinary and inter-sector National Climate Committee (NCC) led by the Minister for Nature, Environment and Tourism, to coordinate and guide national activities and measures aimed at adapting to climate change and mitigating GHG emissions. High-level officials such as Deputy Ministers, State Secretaries and Director-Generals

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of the main Departments of all related ministries, agencies and other key officials are members of the NCC. The NCC approves the country’s climate policies and programs, evaluates projects and contributes to the guidance to these activities. The Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO), under the supervision of the Chairman of the NCC, has been established by the Government, in order to carry out day-to-day activities related to the implementation of commitments and duties under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, to manage the nationwide activities, and to integrate climate change related issues into various sectors.

In order to integrate the climate change concerns and actions into sector development programs, measures with an inter-sector and inter-disciplinary approach are included in the recently approved sector-development programs such as National Program on Water, National Program to Combat Desertification, Arable Farming “Atar-3”, Livestock Program “Mongol mal”, Livestock Health Program, Program on Improvement of livestock quality, Program to Support the Development of Intensive Livestock, Milk Program, Livestock Fodder Program, Food Security Program and others.

Policies and Measures to Mitigate GHG Emissions

Mongolia has been developing and vigorously promoting various policies and measures to alleviate global warming at all levels of the economy. In particular, the strategies for sustainable development and reduction of greenhouse gases in the energy sector are focused on renewable and other clean energy use, energy supply efficiency improvement, clean coal technologies, and energy efficiency improvement in buildings and industry. In the transportation sector, greenhouse gas reducing strategies are being used to improve traffic conditions, to use more fuel-efficient vehicles and to implement shifts from individual road vehicles to rail and public transport systems.

Greenhouse gas reduction strategies in agriculture aim to improve animal husbandry management and technology to increase the productivity of each type of animals. As for the waste sector, policies and measures to establish a foundation to minimise waste, increase recycling and expand waste management processes should be implemented. Policies to increase removals and decrease emissions are also being implemented in the forestry sector through efficient management and maintenance of forests and reforestations.

Energy Sector

The reduction of GHG emissions in the energy sector is being promoted by implementing measures and projects in the energy supply and demand sectors. The main activities would be focused in the following sectors and areas:

1. Increase of renewable and other clean energy use

2. Energy supply efficiency improvement

3. Promotion of clean coal technology

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4. Nuclear energy development

5. Demand-side energy conservation policy

6. Building energy efficiency improvement

7. Improvement of energy efficiency in industry

8. The enhancement of national transportation system

Agriculture

The livestock sector development strategy aims to build risk management capabilities to ensure reliable protection for the wealth and income of herders and to increase production to optimal levels, taking into consideration regional advantages of increasing productivity. Low efficiency leads to an increased number of livestock being vulnerable to natural disasters. The number of livestock has exceeded the estimated feeding capacity of Mongolia’s pasture, causing land degradation and desertification.

Recently, the National Mongolian Livestock Program was approved by the Parliament of Mongolia. The objectives of this Program and National Action Program on Climate Change are to ensure the sustainable development of the livestock sector in the changed climate and environmental conditions, and create a legal environment that would promote economic development. According to the program, the number of livestock is expected to reduce from 44 million in 2008 to about 36 million in 2021 as a result of improvement in animal breeding services based on social needs and the increase in the productivity and quality of livestock products to increase the competitiveness of the sector. These actions would contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions from the livestock sector.

Land Use Change and Forestry

• Land and soil protection from degradation and desertification

• Forest conservation and reforestation

• Protection of forest and grassland from fire

• Measures to combat harmful forest insects and diseases

• Reforestation and measures to support natural regeneration

Waste Management

• Improvement of waste storage and collection system

• Increase of waste recycling

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Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

Mongolia has become a signatory of the Copenhagen Accord and submitted a list of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA) to the UNFCCC Secretariat in January 2010. The NAMA include a general outline of the above mentioned GHG mitigation measures, which will be implemented with support from international mechanisms to strengthen national capacities, to transfer advanced technologies; and to provide financial resources to developing countries and parties.

Policies and Measures to Adapt to Climate Change

The major part of adaptation is targeted toward studies and assessments of climate change impact, including evaluation of its dangers and risks and the formulation of methods and measures to mitigate it. Efficient strategies are needed to implement an adaptation policy on climate change. Implementation strategies must include factors related to legislation, structure, finance, adaptive capacity, human resources, science and media, and coherence with other policies and strategies. Also, it is vital to assess the subjective and objective impediments to the implementation of strategy, and to take into consideration how it is correlated with other socio-economic demands.

The sustainable development of Mongolia is largely dependent on the beneficent cooperation between the environment and the economy, which is closely related to natural resources such as pastureland, animal husbandry, agriculture and natural resource utility. Adaptation technology usually requires a considerable amount of investment at the outset. But the efficiency of adaptation is not easily measurable in the short term and it takes a tremendous amount of effort and time to achieve visible results.

Hence the priority concerns are as follows:

1. Organising broad activities on climate change such as public awareness campaigns and many other kinds of trainings among decision making authorities, farmers, the people working in the agricultural sector and the entire nation;

2. Providing societies, stakeholders, herders and farmers with information and new technology;

3. Inventing technology and conducting surveys and studies oriented toward resolving the issues efficiently, and to provide sustainable agricultural development;

4. Taking management actions targeted at providing coherence between surveys, monitoring and information.

Apart from funding, the major factors in the successful implementation of adaptation procedures are ability, willingness and the concern of the people involved in the implementation process. A successful completion is guaranteed only when there is provision for public participation in the action. The herders, farmers and local communities are the first sectors to benefit from the policy of adaptation. Also, it is crucial to have the participation and assistance of experts and specialists in training, fertilisation, selection and invention of new breeds and irrigation. Currently, the

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importance of taking action to increase public awareness about climate change is obvious, as is the need to increase government willingness to cooperate with NGOs and the public.

Conclusion

The Government of Mongolia, the general public and the private sector have made a very significant progress in climate change research, awareness and planning since joining the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol in the 1990s. For achieving the goals, it is vital to identify all possible barriers that could hamper success at this point of preparation for the Second National Communication under the UNFCCC, as a way of mainstreaming, integrating and pushing forward climate change in the planning and implementation process.

Planning options of climate change policy making and response measures include the following key issues:

– Reduce vulnerability of livestock and other sensitive sectors to the impacts of climate change through the suggested adaptation measures which require actions in a coordinated way and incorporation in long-term planning.

– Continued research, training, strengthening, and building upon existing capacity might be the most important measures for strengthening the adaptive capacity and vulnerability and strategic adaptation planning and disseminating results in easily understandable terms to aid in legislation, planning and general applications.

– Assess and, when needed, improve forecasting and warning systems for disaster preparedness such as for droughts, etc. to help meet potential threats.

– Refine existing impact and vulnerability analyses discussed herein to the greatest extent possible, reducing the uncertainties and fine-tuning the assumptions for more meaningful policy recommendations. Translating these findings and recommendations into easily understandable and not-so technical terms will be most useful.

– Continue to improve and refine the existing vulnerability and adaptation research in other areas such as energy, biodiversity and forestry, crops, and the direct and indirect health effects of climate change

– Implement greenhouse gas reduction projects through the recommended mitigation measures in energy, industry, transport, forestry and waste-management sectors.

– Pursue national and international collaborations such as research, resource-sharing and climate/weather forecasting at the North-East Asia sub-regional level.

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Climate Change and Sustainable Development of Mongolia: Summary of Papers

T. Chuluun, Ph.D.

Department of Environmental Policy and Science, Mongolian Development Institute

Office of the President of Mongolia & Mongolian Academy of Sciences;

Environmental RS/GIS Laboratory, National University of Mongolia;

Dryland Sustainability Institute, Mongolia.

E-mail: chuluun@warnercnr.colostate.edu

Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability

Climate Change Current and future trends

According to the records from 48 meteorological stations, evenly distributed over the territory of Mongolia, the annual mean temperature increased by 2.17 degrees between 1940 and 2009 (Sarantuya & Natsagdorj, Chapter 2.1). Winter temperature has been increasing noticeably. There are no significant changes in precipitation amount during the last 70 years. However, precipitation has decreased by 9.4% to 17.6 % in the central and Gobi areas. Winter precipitation increased, but warm season precipitation slightly decreased. One of the indications in precipitation change is increased number of thunderstorms during the growing season. Instead of long lasting rains, short heavy rains on small areas are becoming more common.

Frequency of climatic disasters such as zud has been increasing over the past 20 years. Zud is a Mongolia-specific disaster, caused by interaction of extreme climatic conditions and man-made socio-economic factors. Zud causes irreparable losses to national economy. For example, the loss of livestock was more than 9 million in the last winter-spring season of 2009-2010.

Changes of winter and summer temperature and precipitation are estimated under A1B GHG scenarios until 2099. Air temperature is projected to increase up to 50 degree Centigrade by the end of the 21st century with a significant increase in winter than in summer. Winter precipitation will increase, but summer precipitation will not change.

Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

The total river flow in the country has been increasing since the end of 1970 till the beginning of 1990s, but since then it has been decreasing until now (Davaa, Chapter 2.2). The annual average water discharge of rivers draining from the Altai and Khovsogol Mountains has been increasing by 15% to 35% relatively to their long-term average, but rivers forming from the Khangai, Khentii and Ikh Khyangan mountain ranges have been decreasing by 30% to 40% during last 30-70 years. Current changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of rivers in Mongolia can be divided into four groups:

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1. Rivers with an increasing trend of annual and seasonal flow. Streams and rivers draining from glaciers of the Altai mountain range, rivers of continuous permafrost catchment of the Khovsogol Mountains and Bogd River from the Otgontenger glacier in the Khangai Mountains compose this group.

2. Rivers with a decreasing trend of annual and warm season flow, but slightly increasing in autumn and winter. Rivers draining from continuous and discontinuous permafrost catchment of the northern slope of the Khangai and Khentii mountain ranges compose this group.

3. Rivers with a decreasing trend in the annual and season’s flow, but slightly increasing in the winter. Downstream reaches of big and bigger rivers compose this group.

4. Rivers with a decreasing trend in the annual and all-season flow. Rivers draining from the southern slope of the Altai and Khangai mountain ranges, streams draining from the Gobi Altai, Gobi and steppe regions comprise the fourth group.

Hydrological changes, caused by climate change impact and anthropogenic influences, are very complex, and also reflect glacier and permafrost melting effects. Lakes and glaciers increase or shrink in response to changing climate. Total area under lakes in Mongolia is reduced by 373 sq. km since 1940. Increase in the lake area occurred mostly in large and big lakes located in permafrost zone and lakes fed by glacier melt waters. Four moderately small lakes shrunk and/or shifted to the class of very small lakes; the number of very small lakes also reduced by 48, and a number of tiny lakes also reduced to natural lagoons. Therefore, the number of natural lagoons increased by 1690 due to decrease in lakes, which are classified as very small and tiny in 1940.

Ground water level fluctuations are also showing signs of decreasing in correlation with current changes occurring in surface water resources. For instance, ground water level dropped in the Moron (forest steppe zone) by 0.55 m, in Arvaiheer (steppe zone) by 0.3 m, and in Ehiin gol (oasis in the Gobi desert) by 0.5 m in 1997-2009.

Possible adaptation measures to climate changes (Davaa, Chapter 2.2):

Mongolia is a country with scarce water resources. Taking an optimal combination of measures of rational use, conservation and storage of water resources is essential for securing sustainable development in the country. It is becoming quite certain that the issue of water resources will gain the highest priority due to the projected drier climate. What can we do to adapt to, and reduce the negative impacts of climate change?

ü Development and implementation of Integrated River Basin Management policy, and planning in a water basin concept at the national level;

ü 70% of the country’s river water resources are in runoff formation zones across the mountainous region of Altai, Khangai, Khentii, Khovsogol and Ikh Khyangan Mts., which

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occupy 30 % of the country’s territory. Therefore, it is necessary to include upper part of runoff formation zones into the protected areas network and protect the ecosystems;

ü Ongoing intensive shrinkage of glaciers calls for storing and harvesting glacier-melt in reservoirs, existing lakes, in other locations in order to minimize run-off and evaporation loss. Reservoirs or water complexes should have multi-purpose use (for hydropower generation, drinking, industrial water supply, irrigation etc.) with the main focus on regulating glacier melting water. It is necessary to construct water reservoirs with volume of 2 Uvs lakes in order to harvest total glacier melting water. Reservoirs will possibly be constructed in the upper reaches of the Khovd, its tributaries, Kharkhiraa, Turgen, Zuil, Bulgan, Tsenkher and Bogd Rivers, and would regulate lake water regime in the Great Lakes’ hollow. The outflow sites of lakes, fed by glacial waters, located in high mountain zones are potential areas for storing waters;

ü To adapt water storage policy in the upper river basins of the Khangai, Khentii and Khuvsugul mountains to regulate long-term river regime, and minimise water surface evaporation loss from reservoirs and irrigation systems;

ü Closed water distribution and storage systems are appropriate for steppe, semi-desert and desert regions;

ü Encouraging efficient and economic use of water resources is essential for saving water. Therefore, water-efficient technologies, water-metering systems and re-use of water are highly recommended in industries, agriculture and other socio-economic sectors;

ü Minimising soil and water pollution sources are basis for water resources protection. Advanced level of water purification and sewage water treatment plants are required in all settlements;

ü Increase in the frequency of droughts forces the use of irrigation systems for sustainable crop production. Currently used irrigation technologies should be replaced with advanced efficient technologies such as drop-irrigation etc.

ü Improved environmental monitoring (extension and modernization of observation network), modelling, remote sensing, data integration and regional cooperation are basis for decision making, development of policy and action plans;

ü Implementation of projects for the reduction of GHG emissions, and use of clean development mechanism are important for reducing the negative impacts of climate change.

Vulnerability of the Mongolian rangelands to drought and grazing

There has been a rise in the frequency of droughts in the Mongolian rangelands between 1940 and 2008 (Altanbagana, Chapter 2.3). Omnogov’, Hovd and Uvs aimags had the highest drought index averaged during 1970 to 1990. The Gobi region is impacted by drought since 1990 more than any other ecological regions. In addition to Omnogov’, Uvs and Hovd aimags, Gov’-Altai, Bayanhongor, Dundgov’ and Tov aimags (the only vulnerable aimag located in the steppe and forest steppe zone) were added to the list with high drought index during 1990-2008. Global warming may explain the increased drought frequency and intensity during last two decades.

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Rangeland ecosystem’s vulnerability to drought and stocking rate was high in western three aimags (Hovd was the most vulnerable) and the Omnogov’ before 1990. However, rangeland ecosystem’s vulnerability has increased dramatically since 1991. In fact, rangeland vulnerability increased almost everywhere. The central region and the western 3 aimags became more vulnerable as did Omnogov’, Hovd and Bulgan, which fall in the list of the most vulnerable aimags. Not only aimags located in desert steppe and steppe regions such as Hovd, Omnogov’, Dundgovi and Uvs aimags, but Bulgan and Arkhangai aimags located in the forest steppe region are also listed among the very vulnerable aimags.

Policy recommendations (Altanbagana, Chapter 2.3):

1. To develop comprehensive program for climate change adaptation in Mongolia. Climate change and desertification are two sides of a coin. Climate change adaptation and sustainable development are closely interlinked. Human development is a key for building resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change and globalisation. This is actually development of concept for green growth. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare, and the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy should jointly work on it.

2. To develop the Government policy to climate change adaptation for each ecological zone. Climate change impact is different in each ecological zone. Therefore as the Paragraph 6 of the Environmental Policy of the “Comprehensive Policy of National Development” indicated, national program to combat desertification and strategies for climate change adaptation must be developed jointly, but for each ecological zone.

3. To reform new administrative-territorial division of Mongolia in order to improve adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change and globalisation, to reduce human-environmental vulnerability and restore traditional cultural landscape. Water basin should get the maximum attention for this reform.

4. To make a win-win model, that supports both human development and environmental health, as criteria of the state policy, especially for reduction of socio-ecological vulnerability at community, river basin, ecological region and country levels.

Cross-sectored vulnerability to climate change assessment, using 18 indicators, was done by Mijiddorj (Chapter 2.4). Cross-sectored analysis showed that surface water resources are subject to climate change and strongly affect other ecosystem components (Figure 2.4.1). Climate change is causing drought frequency, heat waves, evaporation and dryness increase. It causes a decline in the pasture yield, outbreak of insect attacks, decrease in the levels of rivers and lakes besides drying small rivers, streams and springs. The changing precipitation pattern without significant change in the total annual amount, coupled with rising air temperature, increases evapo-transpiration, causing dryness. We can conclude that the dryness may affect all components of the ecosystem, causing shortage of surface water and land degradation. Therefore, adaptation to climate change will depend on the efficient use of water, reserved from snow and rain.

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Vegetation grows just after rain during the growing season in desert steppe and desert areas of Mongolia. But it can dry up due to dry weather caused by climate change as a consequence of which there will be no grass for animals. Therefore herders of Sukhbaatar, Dundgovi, and Dornogovi aimags are migrating to Kherlen river basin, Khentii, Tuv, and Bulgan aimags. This may explain why 100 herders with 90,000 animals left their homes in Dundgovi aimag in the last 6-7 years and did not return. We could say that “global warming migration” has already started in Mongolia. The herders living in the desert steppe zone may face the same problem. The migration issue is complicated due to the limited pasture area, carrying capacity, and pasture degradation. A good example of this scenario is the Kherlen-Bayan-Ulaan, a traditional reserve pasture. Therefore, migration and settlement should also be considered vulnerable to climate change.

Mining, tourism, and protected areas are relatively autonomous components. However, civil engineering and constructions, based on the past 50-60 years of climate data, also face a high risk from climate change. It is necessary to take measures against climate change impacts, which are unavoidable in the near future. Therefore, we urgently need to develop adaptation policy, and allocate national and international resources for adaptation actions (Mijiddorj, Chapter 2.4).

Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development

Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change primarily refers to incorporation of different measures at different levels to enhance resilience of vulnerable systems, both natural and human, as a part of development efforts (Alam, Chapter 3.1). The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a key institute supporting processes required for adaptation to climate change, including mainstreaming or integrating into development planning. International development partners have developed climate screening methodologies and tools for assessing vulnerability of on-going projects and to find measures to increase resilience. Take, for instance, the OECD declaration on integrating climate adaptation into development co-operation and guideline on integration, and DFID climate screening tools.

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) is one of the key priority areas of climate change sub-program considering the fact that the impacts of climate change are already affecting the functioning of ecosystems. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment concluded in 2005 revealed that approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of the examined ecosystem services are being degraded or used unsustainably. Degraded ecosystems have less resilience toward rapid climate change impacts, and their capacity to provide all the services upon which a multitude of sectors and communities depend is being further challenged. Currently over 1 billion people in over 100 developing countries are locked in the cycle of poverty and environmental degradation made worse by the effects of climate change. It is well recognised that healthy ecosystems and their services provide opportunities for sustainable economic prosperity while at the same time providing defense against the negative effects of climate change.

UNEP plans to deliver the EBA program through three overarching components in response to country needs. They are a) assessments and knowledge support which includes development

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and collection of appropriate methods and tools; implementation of tools for impact/vulnerability assessments; analyses of ecosystem services and economic values; and capturing good practices, knowledge sharing and awareness raising; b) capacity building and demonstration, which include technology mobilisation, pilots and demonstration, and capacity building; and c) integration of EBA options into National Adaptation Plans which include economic analyses, policy and legislation support, and feasibility studies.

The strategic objective No. 6 of the MDGs-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy directly relates to climate change adaptation (Tsedendamba, Chapter 3.2). The following points were made in this document:

• Promote capacity to adapt to both climate change and desertification;

• Implement policy in line with the concept of sustainable development;

• Identify areas vulnerable to climate change and enhance the capacity to adapt in those areas;

• Introduce advanced methods and technology in crop-farming;

• Regulate livestock number and composition according to carrying capacity;

• Develop both nomadic and intensive animal husbandry, capable of adapting to environmental and climate change;

• Increase public participation in activities related to climate change and desertification, defining and introducing adaptation measures to cope with climate change and providing knowledge and information.

According to UNCCD, almost 90% of Mongolia’s territory is vulnerable to land degradation and desertification (Banzragch and Enkhbold, Chapter 3.3). A recent assessment of desertification in Mongolia shows that 5% is very severely, 18% severely, 26% moderately and 23% slightly degraded. This means that roughly 72% of the total territory is affected by desertification to some extent. Especially affected are the territories of the Uvs lake basin, the great lake depression (located in territories of Uvs and Hovd aimags), Dundgov’ and Dornogov’ aimags.

The main factors impacting desertification are climate change and livestock number increase, exceeding the carrying capacity. According to the Hydro-meteorological Institute, evapo-transpiration has also increased by 3.2%-10% in the desert zones and by 10%-15% in forest steppe and High Mountain zones between 1940 and 2006 (Natsagdorj L, 2004). According to an assessment by the Agency for Land Affairs, Construction, Geodesy and Cartography conducted between 1999 and 2004, pasture carrying capacity was exceeded by 32.5%, which is equivalent to an excess of 16 million sheep units.

Deforestation, abandoned croplands, mining activities and unpaved multi-track roads also directly contribute to land degradation. For example, Saxaul (Haloxylon ammodendron) forests are vital for desert ecosystems and they make up one-fourth of the 12.1% land area covered by forests and shrubs. Saxaul is used as an energy source for heating and cooking. Since 1970, 125,000 hectares of Saxaul stands have been destroyed and 370,000 hectares lost their regenerative

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capacity. This is major cause of desertification, sand movement and dust storms originating from these areas.

The Parliament has approved a new policy on combating desertification in Mongolia (Banzragch and Enkhbold, Chapter 3.3). The overall objective of this policy is “to prevent, cope with and reverse desertification and land degradation in Mongolia to ensure environmental sustainability, improve livelihoods of the rural population and generate environmental services of global importance”.

This will be achieved by:

• Strengthening the institutional capacity;

• Improving the legal and policy framework;

• Enhancing science, technology and knowledge;

• Investing in advocacy, awareness-raising and education;

• Taking concrete actions at the grassroots level; increasing investment.

Three strategic objectives of the new policy for combating desertification are:

1) To improve the living conditions of the rural population

It is recognised that poverty is one of the root causes of degradation of natural resources and desertification in Mongolia. Two complementary strategies will help to achieve this objective: to increase the benefit from management of the natural resources and to create alternative income opportunities for the people.

2) To improve the condition of affected ecosystems

The ongoing degradation of the natural resource base of Mongolia is part of a vicious circle in which the causes and the effects of degradation reinforce each other, leading to an ever increasing pace of devastation. This is most visible in the desert steppes of the Gobi region and the Great Lakes’ depression.

It is difficult to determine how much of the ongoing degradation process in Mongolia is due to the effects of climate change and how much is due to human induced factors. However, there is no doubt that climate change increases the vulnerability of ecosystems and amplifies the effects of mismanagement of the natural resources. Therefore, this policy invests mainly in addressing the man-made causes of land degradation and desertification and tries wherever possible to reduce the risk of collapse of ecosystems and livelihood systems.

3) To generate environmental services of global importance

The increasing global awareness regarding climate change opens new opportunities to address land degradation and desertification with carbon sequestration. These measures need to be implemented in synergy with other conventions like the Conventions on Climate Change and Biodiversity.

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The following guidelines describe the new strategies and approaches:

• Improve the understanding of the root causes and trends of desertification and possible ways to address them (at policy and decision-maker level as well as for the general public);

• Address desertification not as a special additional program but as an integral part of the ordinary planning, budgeting and implementation of all ministries and organisations concerned;

• Re-organise the relationship between local government and population;

• Encourage resource users’ participation in the implementation of NAP through incentives rather than disincentives;

• Invest primarily in areas which are not yet too much degraded, where there is a good potential to bring tangible improvements with limited resources. Invest less in extremely degraded areas and only where there is a need for it and where there will be tangible benefits for the population (e.g. protection of vital infrastructure and settlements from sand movement).

It is understood that desertification is by far the most important environmental issue of Mongolia. It endangers the nomadic and semi-nomadic lifestyle and the cultural identity of Mongolia. It threatens the livelihoods of the rural population which is about 40% of the country and it increases the risks for serious conflicts among the population. Therefore, it is recommended to formally treat desertification as topic of national security.

State-of-the-art environment-friendly and energy-efficient technology is necessary in order to improve agricultural productivity, industrial competitiveness, and alternative income generation capacity in the face of various external and internal shocks, and climate change (Tsogoo et al., Chapter 3.4). It is exciting to note that nomadic pastoral system can be strengthened with renewable mobile energy modules, the world's most advanced green infrastructure technologies, wireless communication and information technology for enhancement of pastoral climate risk management and integrated early warning system. Besides this, there are tremendous opportunities in small and medium enterprises, access to fair share of market capitalisation through mitigation and adaptation processes, and distance learning.

Though Mongolia’s share in GHG emissions at the global level is extremely low, it will make an effort to keep these levels low in the face of business-as-usual trade and trade liberalisation.

Following gaps were identified in the arena of social-economic vulnerability (Davaanyam and Tsedendamba, Appendix 6):

• Identification of the most socially vulnerable regions to climate change;

• Assessment of the economic loss caused by climate change during 1990-2010;

• The economic cost of recovery from climate-related disasters or for rehabilitation;

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• A study of environment-induced migration and human settlement problems;

• Lack of cooperation of stakeholders;

• Improved awareness about climate change adaptation actions, and human security;

• Synergy between climate change adaptation and poverty reduction;

• Imbalanced urban and rural sustainable development;

• Low institutional development of climate change adaptation at local and national levels.

The causal structure of vulnerability of the pastoral socio-ecological systems in Mongolia displays interconnectedness of many factors, but it is critical to strengthen governance, legislation, capacity, knowledge base, cooperation, and restoration of cultural landscapes for a well-oiled pastoral risk management system.

Global change and local impact

• Poor, natural resource-dependent communities and households bear disproportionate burden of climate change impacts;

• Adaptation occurs locally: Knowing local costs and benefits, and relationship to local institutions necessary to inform macro-level efforts;

• Widen adaptation focus beyond technical and infrastructure options;

• Analysing costs and benefits of concrete, historical, adaptation strategies necessary to prioritise future competing options.

Adaptation actions should consider specifics and priority:

• Regionally (Ecological and economic zones);

• Spatially (remoteness, settlement patterns);

• Technological transformation and innovation;

• Sectored priority;

• Reduction of vulnerability assessment of social-ecological systems;

• Institutional diversification;

• Participatory approach.

Research questions for adaptation:

• What are cost-effective and the most suitable local adaptation strategies used by people to reduce the risk of climate change impact on selected locations?

• What motivates the selection of adaptation options?

• Are existing adaptation strategies the most appropriate for selected communities?

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• In what ways can external interventions work through existing or new local institutions to make existing adaptation processes more effective (in terms of impacts on livelihoods, equity, and sustainability)?

It is important to understand the cost assessment of historical adaptations to climate risks and the role of local institutions in it. Awareness, participation, accountability and ownership are essential for resilience and adaptation to climate variability and change.

Here are a few recommendations for decision-makers at the local government level and communities for mainstreaming adaptation to climate change:

• Social-ecological vulnerability assessment must be done before adaptation actions are implemented;

• Risks, costs, and benefits of adaptation options in rural contexts must be studied;

• Institutional investments necessary to facilitate cost-effective adaptation;

• Recommendations should be based on the results obtained on pilot demonstration sites.

In order to build capacity in climate science and adaptation, Mongolia also needs to tackle limitations such as lack of knowledge, expertise and data on socio-economic issues related to climate change; lack of specific climate change institutions to take leadership on adaptation and sustainable development, and the need for a better institutional framework to implement adaptation.

Actions to address these gaps include: training programs for local government officials, dedicated research activities and post-graduate courses; and the initiation of specific institutional frameworks for climate change.

Requirements for adaptation include: better links between climate research and policy-making, mainstreaming climate change consideration into development plans and programs, education and awareness creation in governments, institutions and individuals; better forecasting and early warning systems.

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation considerations into development strategies and country policies and programs will be key to ensuring that development efforts are not mal-adaptive to climate change.

Chuluun says today tele-connections have reached a global scale (Chapter 3.5). If the US was experiencing the “dust bowl” at the continental scale in the 1930s, nowadays we are experiencing dust transfer at the cross-continental scale. The Mongolian dust, originated in the Gobi, reaches not only the East Asian countries, but even North America like in April 2002. The carbon footprints of the developed countries affect pastoral communities in Mongolia through global warming, reducing surface water and forage for pastoral human-environmental systems.

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This shows that a paradigm shift is necessary to avoid crossing planetary boundaries. Climate change adaptation should become a novel development mechanism, based on lessons learnt from existing or traditional pathways.

Nature conservation actions often exclude humans, and human development index (HDI) omits environmental impacts. Holistic scenarios which deliver both ecologically and socially win-win outcomes need to have a high priority in climate change adaptation agendas. Adaptation actions should be more holistic, for increasing social-ecological resilience and for optimal human development.

Mongolia is ranked 100th out of 169 countries in the HDI index (Human Development Report 2010). Unfortunately, only few herders demonstrate both good ecological and social resilience. Unfortunately, many of them are falling into the “Tragedy of Commons” or collapse state. Only a small number of herders (about 10%-15%) have become wealthy with privatisation of livestock. Interestingly, a majority of herders, especially those living in remote areas far from human settlements and main infrastructures, still demonstrate good social resilience. Many traditional pastoral communities are still using traditional cultural landscapes, which consist of four seasonal pastures and reserve pastures. They continue to enjoy good social and ecological resilience, and adaptive capacity to cope with climate variability and extreme events such as drought and zud. However, their human well-being level is not high, and global warming is acting as critical slow variable, increasing pastoral social-ecological vulnerability. Different economic-ecological regions have different degrees of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

But the good news is that we have a relatively high education index. The communication and information technology has made the globe even more inter-connected. A technological transformation is already happening at a high speed in the Mongolian rangelands as well. Nowadays 129,000 of 171,000 herder households have solar/wind energy access. A total of 111,700 herder households have a television set. And 1.7 million people out of 2.7 million have cell phones, which have become ubiquitous among herders as well.

Climate change and disasters, land degradation and desertification limit human freedom and opportunities for making choices. For instance, herders who lost their animals and had to migrate to the cities after the 1999-2002 drought and zud events can be considered as “ecological refugees”.

The policy for combating desertification and adapting to the changing climate has to be integrated into sustainable development planning in order to improve both social and ecological resilience. Therefore, human development should aim for strengthening human-environmental resilience, which is basis of sustainable development. A key to this goal is to provide an education, which combines modern scientific achievements and local traditional knowledge on ecology, management of natural resources, climate change and sustainable development.

Many actions may become mal-adaptive if they are not based on scientific knowledge about climate change, and aim to reduce vulnerability to climate change while strengthening social-ecological resilience. The best climate change adaptation strategy is to strive for human

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development (economic growth with improved education and health services), while increasing social-ecological resilience. Introduction of environmentally friendly technologies such as renewable energy, satellite communication technology, distance learning and diagnosis, and development of enterprises to add value to animal raw materials, besides ecological and cultural tourism are some of the ways for sustainable transformation of pastoral systems.

Mongolia is at the cusp of change. The mining sector is about to boom in the country. Economic growth will bring along with it a wide range of development pathways. It is now that Mongolia should make education, health, conservation of the Gobi as a world cultural and natural heritage site, technological transformation, low-carbon societies, and a social-ecological system based on adaptation to climate change, key pillars of its strategy for sustainable development.

References

Natsagdorj, L. 2004. Total evaporation change issues in the Mongolian territory. WMI, Scientific Journal, 26, 42-55.

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3. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability

Climate Change in Mongolia G. Sarantuya, L. Natsagdorj

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

Consultant, “Eco-planet” Co., Ltd

Email: Sar_od@yahoo.com

Abstract

All global climate change scenarios and studies suggest warming for most of Mongolia. Our study elaborates on the scenarios of future climate which were designed on the basis of numerical model results of general air circulation and climate parameter trend analysis in Mongolia. This presentation shows how the climate change in Mongolia has impacted the temperature and precipitation in the last several decades. According to the records from 48 meteorological stations which are distributed evenly over the territory of Mongolia, the annual mean temperature of Mongolia increased by 2.17°C during the last 70 years.

Key words: Climate change, annual temperature, precipitation, trend, natural disaster, snow and zud

Introduction

Mongolia is situated in the central part of the Asiatic continent (within the latitude and longitude of 46° 00 N and 105° 00 E). It has a total area of 1,565,000 sq. km, which makes it one of the largest mainland countries with no access to sea. The topography of Mongolia consists mainly of a plateau with the elevation ranging from 914 m to 1,524 m, broken by mountain ranges in the north and west. Its fragile ecosystems, pastoral animal husbandry and rain-fed agriculture are extremely sensitive to climate change.

The impacts of climate change on the ecological system and natural resources are real and will dramatically affect almost all sectors of the national economy besides human and animal life, while altering all aspects of the life support system. Therefore, climate change response measures should address the need to adapt to climate change and to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in order to meet the requirements of the sustainable development strategies of Mongolia. Climate change will also directly influence the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by Mongolia.

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Climate Systematic Observation Networks

Currently, 120 weather stations operational in Mongolia are working according to the WMO’s guidelines and procedures, monitoring and measuring the air pressure, atmosphere and soil temperatures, air humidity, rainfall, wind velocities, snowfall depth (during snow) and other weather phenomena eight times a day. Around 40 stations monitor soil temperature in the depths of 20cm-320 cm, while 25 weather stations record precipitation amount, and 32 weather stations estimate the duration of sunshine (Figure 2.1.1).

Observation Network in Mongolia

Meteorological Stations (120) Upper-air stations (5)

Agrometeorological Posts (198) Solar Radiation stations (19)

Figure 2.1.1. Meteorological Observation Network

Climate of Mongolia

The climate of Mongolia is described to be severe and greatly variable geographically and time wise. It is characterised by sharply defined four seasons such as short dry summer and long cold winter. Air Temperature: The temperature ranges between -15°C and -30°C in winter and 10°C and 26.7°C in summer (Figure 2.1.2).

Figure 2.1.2. Annual Mean Air Temperature Map

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Precipitation: In general, the amount of precipitation in Mongolia is low. The annual mean precipitation is 300mm-400mm in the mountainous regions; 250mm-300 mm in Mongol Altai and forest-steppe zone, 150mm-250 mm in the steppe zone and 50 mm-150 mm in the Gobi desert (Figure 2.1.3). The total amount of precipitation is much lower than the potential evapotranspiration.

Figure 2.1.3. Geographical Distribution of Annual Total Precipitation

Sunshine. Mongolia receives an average of 230-260 days of sunshine annually, which is 2,600-3,300 hours of sunshine a year.

Wind. Mongolian steppe and desert-steppe zones are very windy. The annual average wind speed in these areas is in the range of 4 m/s -6 m/s, while it is 2 m/s -3 m/s in the other areas. It slows down to 1 m/s -2 m/s in the Khentii mountain valleys.

Current Climate Change

Studies show that in the last 40 years certain impacts of climate change have already been observed, and these have caused great damage not only to the livestock sector but also to the ecology and socio-economic sectors.

Air Temperature Changes

According to the records at 48 meteorological stations distributed evenly over the territory of Mongolia, the annual mean temperature of Mongolia increased by 2.170C during the last 70 years.

Since 1940, the average winter temperature has been increasing noticeably as compared to the summer temperature. According to the results of coefficient equation of the observed monthly mean data of temperature in different seasons, only summer equation output was 95%-99% statistically significant; for the other seasons this output was not even at 95% confidence level.

Clearly, the number and duration of hot days has shot up dramatically during the last decade.

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Changes in Annual Precipitation Amount

There are no significant changes in the precipitation amount during the last 70 years (Figure 2.1.4). However, precipitation amount fell by 9.4%-17.6% in the central and Gobi area.

Figure 2.1.4. Annual Mean Precipitation Change for 1940-2009

Winter precipitation increased, but warm season precipitation slightly decreased.

One of the indications of precipitation change is increased thunderstorms during the growing season: the maximum amount of precipitation in a day tends to increase as well.

Future Projections of Climate Change

The changes in the winter and summer temperature and precipitation are estimated under A1B GHG scenarios and their results are shown in Figure 2.1.5 and 2.1.6. Here, a total of 12 climate models’ output is used in the estimation of the annual mean temperature change and out of these, six models (MPI-M, GFDL, NIES, MRI, NCAR, and UKMO) are used in the estimation of the total annual precipitation change.

Figure 2.1.5. a) Winter and b) Summer Temperature Change Trends of Mongolia according to

Estimation of A1B, GHG Emission Scenarios, 0C, 2000-2099

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Figure 2.1.6. a) Winter and b) Summer Precipitation Change Trends of Mongolia according to Estimation of A1B, GHG Emission Scenarios, 0C, 2000-2099

According to estimation of the winter temperature change, most models give high change and amplitude, in other words, high variable results year to year. But their values differed by less than 60C in terms of change of trends and increased by 2.60C in 100 years. In summer, it is the opposite. The amplitude is low and values vary by less than 4.50C, and increase by 2.40C in 100 years. This indicates that air temperature will increase more significantly in winter than in summer. This study result is mainly based on global GHG emission scenarios. Ecosystem changes due to human activity of local people (pasture and land degradation, soil erosion associated with mining activities, etc.) have not been considered yet.

Impacts of Climate Change

According to data collected since the 1970s, Mongolia has experienced approximately 25-30 atmosphere related natural phenomenon, and almost one-third of these were caused by natural disasters and caused damage of around 7 billion Togrog. Since the mid-1990s, excluding droughts and zuds, temporary hard weather conditions have been causing economic losses of 10-12 billion Togrogs every year, which is due in large part to lack of protective mechanism against natural disasters, and accurate statistical data.

Figure 2.1.7. Natural Disasters Related with Atmospheric Convection

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The frequency of atmosphere related natural disasters that occurred in Mongolia is increasing over the past 20 years. Zud is a Mongolia-specific disaster, caused by the interaction of extreme conditions and man- made socio-economic factors. Figure 2.1.8 shows the zud index trend from 1940 to 2009.

Figure 2.1.8. Zud index Trend for 1940-2009

Zud causes irreparable losses to national economy. For example, in 2009, it caused a loss of livestock worth more than 9 million Togrog.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Ø Temperature in Mongolia has increased by 2.170C since 1940 and is projected to increase by up to 50C by the end of the 21st century.

Ø The warming was more pronounced in the high mountains (1.90C -2.280C) and less in the Gobi desert (1.60C -1.70C).

Ø There are no significant changes in the precipitation amount during the last 70 years. However, it decreased by 9.7%-17.6% in the central and Gobi desert area while it has not changed significantly in other areas.

Ø Instead of long-lasting rains, short heavy rains on small areas are becoming more common. Damages from heavy rains associated with strong winds, flash floods have doubled in the past 25 years.

Ø The future zud index might be higher than the maximum value in the past 60 years in Mongolia. This means that it is going to be more difficult to be engaged in animal husbandry and will cause degradation for those animals that do not hibernate in winters.

Ø In the coming century, climate change will probably radically change the traditional way of living that was established in Mongolia for more than thousands of years.

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References

Avaadorj D, Badrah S. 2001. Specific features and current state of pastures. Institute of Geo-ecology (Research paper series, issue 2, pp 218-226).

Biological resources of Mongolia. 1998. National report, Ulaanbaatar: Author.

Bolortsetseg, B., Erdenetsetseg, B., Bat-Oyun, Ts. 2002. Pasture browsing stages, yield changes in the last 40 years (Research paper series. 24, pp108-114). Ulaanbaatar.

Bolotsetseg B., Erdenetsetseg B., Bat-oyun Ts. 2002. Changes in grassland phonology and yields during the last 40 years. Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, 24, pp. 108(7), Ulaanbaatar: Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology .

Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds.). 2007. IPCC fourth assessment report: Climate change 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Batima P. and Davgadorj D. (Eds). 2000. Climate change and its impacts in Mongolia. Ulaanbaatar: National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Management, pp 199.

Batimaa P., D.Dagvadorj.and D.Dorjpurev.2000. Green House Gases mitigation potentials in Mongolia. NAMHEM and JEMR publishing: Ulaanbaatar.

Mandakh N., Dash, D., & Khaulenbek A. 2007. Present status of desertification in Mongolia-Geoecological issues in Mongolia. UB. pp. 63-73 [6].

Ministry of Environment, Nature and Tourism, Mongolia. 2009. Mongolia assessment report on climate change.Ulaanbaatar: Author.

Natsagdorj L. and G. Sarantuya. 2004. On the assessment and forecasting of winter-disaster ((atmospheric caused zud) over Mongolia. (The Sixth International Workshop Proceeding on Climate Change in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Asia. Aug. 25-26, UB, pp 72-8).

Natsagdorj L., 2005. Special features of precipitation during the vegetation growing period in Mongolia and its changes. Geo-Ecological issues in Mongolia, No. 5, pp. 157-177.

Natsagdorj L., G.Bayasgalan, & P.Gomboluudev. 2005. The Issue of Present Climate Change over Mongolia-MAS information, No 4,Volume 178, p.23-44.

Natsagdorj L., Sarantuya G. 2006. On assessment of forecasting of winter disaster (atmospheric caused zud) over Mongolia. (The Sixth International Workshop Proceeding on Climate Change in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Asia, Aug. 24-26, pp 72-88).

Natsagdorj L., Tsatsral B., & Natsagsuren H. 2003. Air drought in the territory of Mongolia, issues of interrelation of sea – air. Ecology and Sustainable Development, 7, pp151-180.

Tuvaansuren, G. 1993. Evaluation method of climate change impact on Mongolian sheep, pp148. Tuvaansuren G, Sangidsranjav S, & Danzannyam, B. 1996. Climate condition impact on livestock sector.

Orchlon, pp 121.

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Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Mongolia G. Davaa

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH)

E-mail: watersect@yahoo.com

Abstract

Analyses of hydrological as well as the existing GIS and remote sensing data revealed changes in the flow of rivers, lake levels and the size of glaciers. This paper presents the present situation and makes a forecast of changes that Mongolia is likely to see in the future. It also lists possible adaptation measures to cope with the changing climate.

Key words: River flow, glacier retreating and shrinkage, GIS, LANDSAT ETM and adaptation and runoff formation zone.

Introduction

Mongolia is a country with large territory and low population density, which makes it difficult to monitor its vast hydro-network and identify fingertip tributaries, tiny lakes and spots of disappearing glaciers. The purpose of this investigation is to gain knowledge about changes in water resources and to define possible adaptation measures against climate changes.

Used Data and Methods

v Digitized topographic map data (Information and Computation center, NAMHEM, Mongolia) scaled S1:100000 map

v Landsat ETM data (1989-2002)

v Methods: ArcView, ArcGIS, ENVI softwires, DEM (SRTM-90, 30)

Figure 2.2.1. Dynamics of the Total River Flow in Mongolia

v The images were geometrically rectified using points identified in the corresponding maps, evenly distributed around the lake and glacier massif. Then areas of lakes and glaciers in the images were measured and compared with those in the maps.

v Historical hydrological observation data till 2009 v Water balance methods to reveal currents changes and its future projections

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

V, KM3

OH

31

Current Changes in Hydrologic Systems

The total river flow in the country increased from the end of 1970 till the beginning of 1990s. From 1994 to 2010, readings have shown long-lasting, very low flow period (Figure 2.2.1).

The rivers can be divided into four groups based on the annual and seasonal runoff:

1. Rivers with increasing trend in annual and seasonal flows ;

2. Rivers with decreasing trend in annual and warm season’s flow, but showing a slight increase in autumn and winter;

3. Rivers with a decrease in the annual and season’s flow, but a slight increase in the winter;

4. Rivers with a decrease in the annual and all-season flow.

Streams draining from the glaciers of the Altay mountain range, rivers of continuous permafrost catchment of the Khuvsugul Mountains and Bogd River rising from the Otgontenger glacier in the Khangai Mountains compose the first group. Rivers draining from continuous and discontinuous permafrost catchment of the Northern slope of the Khangai mountain range and Khentei mountain ranges form the second group. Downstream reaches of big and bigger rivers fall in the third group. Rivers draining from Southern slope of the Altay and Khangai mountain range and streams draining from the Gobi Altay and Gobi and steppe regions comprise the fourth group. The annual average water discharge of rivers draining from the Altay and Khuvsugul mountains has been increasing by 15%-35% of their long-term average and decreasing by 30%- 40% in the rivers forming from the Khangay, Khentey and Ikh Khyangan mountain ranges in the last 30-70 years.

Statistically significant changes have occurred in the starting and ending dates of the ice phenomena and ice cover in autumn and spring, as well as their durations and ice depth. There has been a slight increase in the annual and seasonal flow of small and medium-sized rivers, draining from the northern slope of the Altay Mountains. There has also been a slight increase in the autumn and winter flow of the Selenge and Onon rivers.

The maximum depth of ice has increased by 40 cm, but the ice begun to form one month later and the duration of the ice phenomena has extended by 10-20 days in these permafrost and glacier fed rivers where water temperature has been decreasing. But excepting in these rivers, the maximum ice depth has decreased by 35 cm, the date of ice formation has shifted to half a month earlier and the duration of ice cover has been shortened by five to 44 days. The ice phenomena period has shortened by 15 days in river basins of non-continuous permafrost and steppe zone where water temperature has been rising.

Hydrological research results show that changes have occurred in the regime of spring floods as well, which have got preponed by 20 days in the rivers draining from the Southern slope of Mongolian Altay and Khangai mountains; by five to ten days in rivers draining from the Northern slope of the Khangay mountains and Khuvsugul mountains; and by five days in rivers draining from Khentey mountains. Sixty years of hydrological record shows that spring floods in the Tuul river starts earlier by 20 days comparing with the start of the observation. Hydrological changes

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driven by climate change and anthropogenic influences are very complex, and are also reflected in the melting of glaciers and permafrost.

Lakes and glaciers increase or shrink in response to changing climate. They both, therefore, can be taken as an indicator of changing climate, especially in the plains and high and remote mountainous regions where no permanent climate station exists. The critical link between lakes, glaciers and climate is the lake water and glacier mass balances. Water and mass balances, and especially their seasonal components, can be considered a critical tool for the monitoring of climate from limn logical and glaciological data. Availability of these data is limited in Mongolia. Therefore, lake and glacier area data have been acquired from topographical map scaled as 1:100000, compiled in 1940th depending upon aerial photos and LANDSAT ETM data from 2000-2002.

Increase in the lake area occurred mostly in the large lakes located in permafrost zone and lakes fed by glacier melt waters. The medium-sized Khokh lake, located in the Mongolian Eastern plain land, increased in size due to river bed diversion due to which it receives more water as compared to the past. However, four moderately small lakes shrunk and shifted to the class of very small lakes, and the number of very small lakes also reduced by 48. A number of tiny lakes also reduced to the class of natural lagoons, thus increasing the number of natural lagoons by 1690. In all, the area under lakes has reduced by 373 sq. km in this period (Table 2.2.1 below).

Table 2.2.1. Changes in Lake Areas and Numbers in the Last 60 Years

Size of lake

Size of lake area, sq.km

Landsat ETM (2000-2002)

Topographic map, scaled S1:100000 (1940th)

Difference in lake area, sq.km

Difference in the number of lakes

No. of lakes

Sum of lake area, sq. km

No.of lakes

Sum of lake area, sq. km

Large >1000 4 8815.214 4 8801.343 13.7 0

Big ≥500.0-<1000.0

2 1196.1 2 1192.3 3.8 0

Moderately big

≥100.0-<500.0

9 1913.55 8 1812.8 100.8 1

Medium ≥50.0-<100.0 11 760.62 12 851.8 -91.2 -1

Moderately medium

≥20.0-<50.0 9 256.421 9 254.8 2 0

Small ≥10.0-<20.0 30 419.23 29 383.4 36 1

Moderately small

≥5.0-<10.0 71 489.38 75 444.6 45 -4

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The water level fluctuations in lakes show that water level was generally rising from 1960 till the middle of 1990, and has been falling for the last 14 years since 1996. However, water level of the Khuvsugul Lake, located in the forest and permafrost zone has been increasing drastically, while the water level of the Uvs Lake, fed by glacier melt water has been decreasing since 1993, though its fall is not as significant as compared to others. The annual average of the water level of the Har-Us lake, located in the arid zone and fed by glacier melt water, fell by 32 cm since 2001; water level of the Terkhiin Tsagaan lake, located in forest zone, dropped by 42 cm since 2000; water level of the Ugii lake located in the steppe zone dropped by 144 cm since 2004; the Boir lake located in the steppe zone lost 183 cm since 1999, while the Khyargas and Buuntsagaan lakes in Gobi desert registered a drop of 281 cm and 603 cm, respectively from 1998 to 2009.

Previous studies, based on the topographical map (N. Dashdeleg et al., 1983) showed that there are 182 glacier massifs with a total area of 659 sq. km. Based on the same topographic map P.Baast (1999) divided Mongolian lakes into 11 glacier systems and concluded that there are 262 glacier massifs with a total area of 659 sq. km. Spatial distribution is sporadic and decreases from north-west to south-east. The mean depth of Mongolian glaciers has been estimated at 55.8 m, and the total water resources accumulated in the glaciers is estimated at 62.6 cubic km (N.Dashdeleg et al., 1983). Over the last 40 years, from 1945 (topographic map) to 1985 (NOAA image), the area under glaciers had decreased by 6 % (P.Baast, 1999).

Mongolian glacier massifs are distributed among 42 mountain ranges, 40 of which are located in the Altay Mountains. However, glacier distributions mapped in the topographic map and acquired from LANDSAT images are quite different. Glacier massifs mapped in topographic S1:100000 in the four mountains of As Doush, Zurkh, Baga and Chuluut aren’t revealed by ANDSAT ETM. The six existing 6 glacier massifs of Siilkhem, Upper Salban River, Khokh serkh, Holagash, Ikh Turgen Mountains (Syrgali), and Otgontenger are also not mapped in the topographic S1:100000 maps. The area and shape of the spatial distribution of seven glacier massifs located in Samartai, Chandmani, Tsagaan-Uul, Hairtiin davaa, Hajmiin salaa, Sutay and Khatuugiin Monkh Tsast mountains are precise in both the topographic map and LANDSAT images of 1989-1992. The glacier area has decreased by 12.3 % in the period from 1940 till 1989-1992. Ariel distribution of 25 glacier massifs was acquired from the LANDSAT 7 ETM+ image of 1989-1992 and 1999-2002 which shows that the area under the glaciers decreased by 9.8%. In all, the area

Very small

≥1.0-<5.0 239 556.01 287 531.2 25 -48

Extremely small

≥0.1-<1.0 1710 531.355 3399 964.4 -433 -1689

Natural lagoon

0.1> 3081 96.79 1391 114.6 -18 1690

Total 5166 15034.70 5216 15372.07 -373.37 -50

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under the glaciers decreased by around 22% in the last 50-60 years. There were 580 glaciers with a total area of 417.12 sq. km in 2000-2002.

Ground water level fluctuations give signs to decrease in correlation with current changes occurring in surface water resources. For instance, ground water level dropped in the Muren (forest steppe zone) by 0.55 m, in Arvaykheer (steppe zone) by 0.3 m and in Ekhiin gol (oasis in the Gobi desert) by 0.50 m in 1997-2009.

Projection of Future Changes in Water Resources

The current water balance elements in the river basins were assessed using historical, hydrological and meteorological records and conventional water balance methods. Their future projections of changes were gauged based on the Hadley center climate model (HadCM3) output results in accordance with GHG A2, A1B and B1 scenarios for the periods of 2020 (2011-2030), 2050 (2046-2065) and 2080 (2071-2099) compared to the average air temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation data for the period of 1980-1999.

The annual potential evaporation from open surface of water will drastically rise in mountainous regions. According to climate change A1B GHG scenarious, average water temperature from April-October is projected to increase in the Arctic Ocean basin by 2.2 oC in 2020, 2.8 oC in 2050 and 3.5 oC in 2080; in the Pacific Ocean basin it is expected to rise by by 2.3oC, 3.0 oC, 3.8 oC in the same period, while the Central Asian Internal drainage basin will see a possible rise of 2.4oC, 3.1 oC, and 3.8 oC, respectively, above its average in 1980-1999. Water temperature is the key to aquatic life, and these changes will lead to drastic changes in aquatic life. Water temperature will rise more if gauged as per the A2 GHG scenario though B1 GHG scenario sees a lesser rise.

Results according to A1B GHG scenario show that the river runoff in 2020, 2050 and 2080 will increase by 4 mm, 8 mm, and 13 mm, respectively, in the Arctic Ocean basin; by 5mm, 8 mm, and 9 mm, respectively in the Pacific Ocean basin, and by 2 mm, 3mm, 4 mm in the Central Asian internal drainage basin. However, the projected increase in evaporation from open surface water will exceed the increase in the runoff by 138, 77, and 48 times, during these three periods in the Arctic Ocean basin, by 115, 75, and 101 times in the Pacific Ocean basin and by 144,168, and 111 times in the Central Asian internal drainage basin, respectively. That will aggravate the dry conditions and lead to an imbalance between inflow and outflow of water bodies.

The spatial distribution of changes in river runoff shows, that it will slightly increase by 3 mm to 10 mm in the Mongolian Altay mountains in the upper basin area of the Khovd River, in Orkhon, Chuluut Rivers draining from eastern slope of the Khangay mountains, and in upper basin of the Tes and Shished Rivers draining from Khuvsugul mountains. However, the river flow will decrease in the basins of Khuvsugul lake, Eg, Uur, Zavkhan, Khungui, Ider rivers, Valley of lakes, Great lake’s hollow and in the steppe and Gobi regions (Figure 2.2.2).

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Figure 2.2.2. Runoff Depth and its Future Changes (mm/year) a is change in 2020, b is change in 2050 and c is is change in 2080 by the A1B scenarios

Possible Adaptation Measures to Climate Changes

Mongolia is a country with scarce water resources. Taking an optimal combination of measures of rational use, conservation and storage of water resources is essential for securing sustainable development in the country. The global warming related issues and anthropogenically influenced environmental changes are not only global issue, but also a local issue on the river basin scale and will influence the wellbeing of people living there. These changes are quite remarkable in this intensive economic development period. It is becoming quite certain that the issue of water resources will gain more and more importance as the climate gets drier.

What We Can Do to Adapt to Climate Change and Reduce its Negative Impacts

ü Develop and implement Integrated River Basin Management policy and plans, both river basin-wise and at the national level, and cope with desertification.

ü 70% of the river water resources are formed in the runoff formation zones extending to the mountainous regions of Altay, Khangay, Khentey, Khuvsugul and Ikh Khyangan, which totals 30% of the country’s territory. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt the National policy so that it covers upper reaches the runoff formation zones.

ü The ongoing intensive retreat and shrinkage of glaciers underlines the need to store and harvest glacier melting water in reservoirs, existing lakes, at high altitudes to minimize the evaporation loss. Reservoirs or water complexes will be multipurpose, and will come in handy for hydropower generation, drinking water and industrial water supply, besides pasture watering. To harvest total glacier melting water, it is necessary to construct water reservoirs with a volume of 2 Uvs lakes. Reservoirs can be constructed in the upper reaches of the Khovd, and its tributaries, Kharkhiraa, Turgen, Zuil, Bulgan, Tsenkher and Bogd rivers.

Change, mm, 20 Change, c) a) b)

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References

Batima P and others. 2003. Climate change: pasture, animal husbandry. In Vulnerability of Pastoral Husbandry, Adaptation Project managed by AIACC (in Mongolian)

Budagovsky A.I., Busarova, O.Е. 1991. Main methods to assess changes in soil water resources, and river flows in climate change scenarios. Water Resources, No. 2 (in Russian)

Dashdeleg N., Evilkhan, R, Khishigsuren, P. 1983. Recent glaciations of Mongolian Altai. Scientific Journal, No.8. Institute of Water and Meteorology.

Davaa G. 2008. Water resource, use, protection, and climate change impact on water regulation and resource. In: Nature-20 Scientific Conference Proceedings, Ulaanbaatar (in Mongolian).

Davaa G., Kadota, T, .Purevdagva, X and Baasandorj, D. 2005. Predictive research results of Tsambagarav mountain’s glaciations. Journal of Institute of Altai study. Ulaanbaatar (in Mongolian).

Institute of Water and Meteorology. 1998. Recent glaciations of Mongolia. Scientific Project Report (in Mongolian).

Institute of Water and Meteorology. 2009. Surface water regulation, resource, assessment and prediction. Scientific Project Report (in Mongolian).

Kadota Ts., Davaa, G. 2004. Recent glacier variations in Mongolia, a preliminary study. 3rd International Workshop on Terrestrial Change in Mongolia, Tsukuba, Japan, Nov.2004.

Myagmarjav, D.B., and Davaa, G. 1999. Surface water of Mongolia. Interpress: Ulaanbaatar (in Mongolian).

Natsagdorj L., Bayasgalan, G., Gomboluudev, P. 2005. Recent climate change issues in Mongolia. Ulaanbaatar (in Mongolian).

37

Vulnerability Assessment of the Mongolian Rangeland Ecosystems

M.Altanbagana, T.Chuluun & Dennis Ojima

Dryland Sustainability Institute, Mongolia

Mongolian Development Institute

Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory of CSU, USA

Email: a_baganad@yahoo.com, chuluun@warnercnr.colostate.edu

Abstract

Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid or semi-arid ecosystems where climate is highly variable. Thus, in many ways pastoral livestock systems are intimately adapted to climatic variability. In general, there is a direct relationship between climate variability and the spatial scale of pastoral exploitation. Extensive nomadic systems are found in the most variable regions; less extensive, more intensive modes of livestock management occur in areas where forage dependability is more secure. Long-term climate dynamics in dry lands can thus be expected to have important implications on the viability of pastoral people and their land use patterns in Mongolia.

During the past several decades, changes in climate variability, ecosystem dynamics and socio-economic factors are interacting in novel ways to determine nomadic land use systems in Mongolia. There are direct links between nomadic land use systems and ecosystem dynamics. Interactions between ecosystems and nomadic land use systems have and continue to co-shape them in mutually adaptive ways, thus making both the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem and nomadic pastoral system resilient and sustainable. However, multiple stressors associated with socio-economic and environmental factors can affect this long-term interaction between land-use and long-term sustainable nomadic pastoral systems in Mongolia. Mongolian pastoral systems are very sensitive to climate variability and extreme events, such as drought, fires, pests, and zud (the Mongolian term used for a severe-for -livestock winter condition).

Traditional resilience of pastoral community-cultural landscape systems is being affected by climate and socio-economic changes related to mining and goat-cashmere production activities which have led to a loss in resilience and further degradation of the rangelands, riparian areas, and water bodies. Experts term it as an example of “tragedy of the commons”. However, there is still hope for sustainable transformation pathway to conserve the ecological, social and cultural resilience associated with these steppe ecosystems (in all dust and sandstorm source areas). The traditional pastoral community-cultural landscape systems can be strengthened with the introduction of modern technologies such as renewable energy and wireless communications.

Keywords: Zud, drought, rangeland ecosystem, climate change vulnerability and adaptation.

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This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Climate, Sustainability and Development in Semiarid Regions – ICID, August 16-20, 2010, Fortaleza, Brazil.

1. Introduction

The Mongolian rangelands have a diversity of ecosystems, ranging from forest-steppe in the north, to the Gobi desert in the south, and the steppe ecosystem in between. The Altai Mountains in the southwest, the Khangai mountains and the Khentii mountains in north-central part of the country add to the diversity of the landscape, habitat, and resource availability. The Mongolian nomadic pastoral cultures occur as an emergent feature of the variable ecosystem dynamics of the arid and semi-arid systems. These pastoral systems have adapted to variable environmental conditions responding to variation in resource availability. The emergence of hierarchical pastoral networks or cooperative groups based on common location of grazing or family relationships, as a complex adaptive system, increases the resiliency of these systems to climate variability.

Recently, some experts have conducted evaluation of the pastoral systems in the region (Ojima and Chuluun 2008, Chuluun and Ojima 2010). Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid or semi-arid ecosystems, where the climate is highly variable. Thus, in many ways pastoral systems are adapted to climatic variability and extremes such as drought and zud. There are various winter conditions which affect pastoral vulnerability in Mongolia: too much snow (white zud), too little snow (black zud) or ice-cover of pastures (iron zud). These zud types cause a decrease of forage or water availability for livestock in Mongolia.

It is plausible to assume direct connection between climate variability, ecosystem dynamics and nomadic land use system in Mongolia. Interaction between ecosystems and nomad ice land use systems have co-shaped them in mutually adaptive ways for hundreds of years, thus making both the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem and nomadic pastoral system resilient and sustainable, but the socio-economic and climate conditions of the past two decades are affecting these management systems in dramatic ways.

Throughout the region, sweeping changes affecting environmental, demographic, political and economic forces in Mongolia during the past two decades have impacted the pastoral systems. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilisation. These sets of social factors tend to over-ride the climate drivers during periods of economic change. Thus, climate relationships to land use/land cover have been modified by these socio-economic changes, leading to overexploitation of natural capital. These changes have resulted in a more sedentary livestock management system, to more intensive stocking rates in localized areas, especially around water facilities and villages, and changes in animal breeds used. During the past decades, political changes and opening of economic have led to modifications in pastoral management due to relaxation of central government controls, privatization of livestock, and access to "free-enterprise" and open market systems. What will result from these recent changes is unclear, and the effect on human and natural resources of these arid and semi-arid regions needs to be determined.

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The majority of lands (about 90%) in Mongolia are dry lands (Khaulenbek, et al. 2009). Hyper-arid, arid and semi-arid zones occupy more than 80%, and dry sub-humid zone occupies less than 10% of the territory of Mongolia (Figure 2.3.1). The deserts (and southern part of the desert-steppe) fall into the hyper-arid zones. The desert-steppe (northern part of the desert-steppe) and dry steppe fall into the arid zones. All other steppe ecosystems, such as steppe, mountain steppe, forest steppe, and meadow steppes, are included in the semi-arid zones. This aridity greatly contributes to the sensitivity of this region to climate warming and variability in precipitation and pastoral responses to this range of aridity is reflected in the mobility of nomadic patterns of pastoralists. Some of the hyper-arid zones are not used by herders, and herders in dry sub-humid zones are the least mobile, moving for short distances and only twice a year:

between summer fall and winter-spring pastures. Herders, living in arid and semi-arid landscapes, are more mobile with seasonal movements.

Response of the pastoral systems to political and economic changes has led to a tripling of goat numbers and a reduction in cattle numbers across Mongolia since its transition to market economy due to cashmere with both socio-economic and ecological consequences. This set of drivers is orthogonal to the above described climate drivers. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the socio-economic forces mentioned above. Nevertheless, the complex relationship between climate variability and pastoral exploitation patterns will still form the environmental framework for overall patterns of land use change.

Aimag center

Aimag boundary

Country boundary

Aridity index

LEGEND

Figure 2.3.1. Aridity Classification Map of Mongolia

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The objective of the paper is to identify current trends in key factors affecting land use systems, ecosystem services and find out how these are affecting the vulnerability of the Mongolian pastoral systems to climate and other stresses being experienced in the region during the past 3 decades. In addition, we will discuss various coping strategies in response these stresses.

2. Current Situation

Climate conditions: Climate variability and change is being experienced in droughts, extreme winter conditions, and warming. We have analysed climate data and land cover changes to evaluate factors affecting land use changes. Linkages between current trends in policy decisions and economic forces will be developed in the analysis of environmental and ecosystem dynamics. During the last 70 years, the annual mean air temperature has increased by 2.140C in Mongolia (Figure 2, MNET, and MARCC 2009). The warming has intensified during the last 2 two decades. Winter temperature has increased by 3.610C and the spring-fall temperature by 1.4-1.500C. However, the summer temperature has decreased by 0.300C. Changes in the degree of warming have spatial character: winter warming is more pronounced in the high mountains and mountain valleys, and less in the Gobi desert and the steppe. There is a slightly increasing trend in the annual precipitation in the last 60 years (Natsagdorj et al. 2003). During 1940-1998, the annual precipitation increased by 6%, while summer precipitation increased by 11% (mostly in August) and spring precipitation decreased by 17%, mostly in May.

Seasonal precipitation changes (i.e. initiation of snowfall in the mountain regions) and availability of water have resulted in water shortages and additional stress to rangelands. Observations of seasonal changes in the initiation of plant growth across the regions of Mongolia have been documented with satellite data analysis (Ojima et al. 2004). The herders are very sensitive to water availability during both the warm and cold seasons and there is also ecosystem degradation as a result of overgrazing around the wells and the few remaining springs that have

Figure 2.3.2. Mean Annual Temperature Changes for Mongolia: Long-term Average between 1940 and 2007.

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not already shrunk due to climate change impact. The herders are very sensitive to snow cover change as well. For instance, Nogoon Suuri, a herder of Hujurt sum, indicated that six springs had disappeared and that only a single watering point remained for 14 households with 3,000 livestock. This only remaining spring was prone to freezing, leaving these households without water in early December 2006. As there is usually snow on the ground during this time of year, the herders dispersed, moving away from their winter camps so that they could use the snow as winter water source.

A major outcome of the changing climate is the observation of greater dust and sand storms (DSS). Satellite imagery and ground based observations confirm that the DSS sources originate from the sandy lands in the desert margins of the northern areas of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and in the southern and western parts of Mongolia. The DSS occurred for more than 30 days in the Gobi territory of Mongolia. There is an increasing trend in the number of dust days in Mongolia, and their number has tripled since 1960. These events are impacting surrounding countries, affecting China, South Korea and Japan. We have observations that the Asian dust has reached as far as the North American continent.

Water Resources: Disappearance of small streams, lakes and springs was also observed in the central Mongolia study sites. Decreases in snowfall, increased tree cutting, the melting of permafrost, intensifying drying trends, destruction of riparian zone shrubs and swamps, and overgrazing all interacted in a non-linear way, resulting in the disappearance of water sources. Regional climate may be affected due to the albedo change that comes with land and snow cover changes. The summer of 2009 had large floods in Hujirt sum territory due to both heavy rainstorms and drought conditions.

Because the number of water points continues to decline from year to year, traditional nomadic pastoral pattern of seasonal grazing has been disrupted with the loss of these watering points. The increased grazing pressure around the remaining water points has resulted in overgrazing of pastures. In addition to these anthropogenic grazing effects, a warmer and dryer climate has created conditions promoting the expansion of deserts. From the beginning of the 20th century, global warming has intensified in northern latitudes, and the temperature in Mongolia has increased by 1.8 degrees Centigrade since 1940 (Batima et al. 2005). The forage availability determined by the remote sensing data from 1982 through 2002 in the central parts of Mongolia was affected by these climate effects (Ojima et al. 2004). Ellis and others (2002) showed that the steppe area adjacent to the Gobi region is especially vulnerable to climate changes and increased grazing pressures during the past decade has led to desertification.

Riparian ecosystems appear to have keystone value in the pastoral social-ecological systems. The collapse of these critical ecosystems’ ability to provide water would greatly impact the pastoral community, as water is the most valuable resource for both people and animals in dry lands.

Population trends: Mongolia had a low population growth rate due to the wars, political depression and poor health care system until 1960. However, the growth rate increased dramatically during 1960-1990, reaching about 2.5%. Human population doubled during this

42

period, increasing from 1 million in 1963 to 2 million in 1989. Majority of the population was rural until 1960. Interestingly, the rural population almost stayed almost steady with a very slow growth but there was a dramatic increase in the urban proportion of the population between 1960 and 1990, associated with an increased rural to urban migration. Urban population finally exceeded the rural population in the late 1970s.

Changes in population dynamics have also occurred in Mongolia during its recent transition to market economy. Population growth rate was nearly half of the previous 30 years, and rural-urban population movements shifted due to policy changes and economic decisions. With the privatization of livestock in the early 1990s, a reversal in migration movement occurred with urban dwellers moving back to rural areas. The opportunity to own livestock stimulated the movement of many urban dwellers back to the country-side. This movement back to the countryside resulted in equalizing urban and rural population numbers. The number of herders and herders’ households doubled just within two years between 1990 and 1992. But a majority of new herders tend to stay closer to settlements causing rangeland degradation.

However, the direction of migration reversed in late 1990s; especially after three consecutive years of dry summers and zuds of 1999-2002. Many herders who lost their livestock migrated back to the urban areas. The main reasons for the rural-urban migration are socio-economic. These herders wanted to be closer to market and social services such as school, health care, and the possibility of employment. This trend continues as job opportunities increase in the urban areas in recent years.

Nomadic System: The Mongolian nomadic pastoralists have traditionally adjusted their movements to environmental conditions of the region where they lived. In regions with relatively higher climate variability and increased uncertainty, pastoral movements tend to be more chaotic and follow more opportunistic strategies to secure forage. These movements are associated with drier parts of the steppe and desert areas such as the Gobi desert and desert steppe region, where non-equilibrium ecosystem dynamics are observed (Ellis and Chuluun 1993, Fernandez-Gimenez 1999).

During the collectivities or negdel period between 1960 and 1990, herders were moving less frequently, and across longer distances with mechanised transport vehicles (e.g., trucks, and tractors). However, herders still kept the traditional pastoral land use concept. Negdels or collectives were dissolved with the privatization of livestock in the early 1990s. The pastoral collectives and the state assigned new administrative territories which cut across lines of traditional nomadic movements. Within these collectives were several smaller units or teams, which were the levels at which herding activities were allocated and comprised one or two households (Mearns, 1993). Although these traditional functions may have been subsumed by the collectives, the customary institutions did not disappear altogether, as is demonstrated by the fact that many are now re-emerging.

From 1960 to 1990, many aspects of the traditional nomadic culture were replaced with socialistic practices. Herdsmen were commonly organised into collectives and were allowed only a small number of animals for private ownership (Senath, 2003). The provincial and national

43

government established a strategy for short-term, long-distance moves (odor) to safeguard against drought and rangeland overuse. This strategy also served as a mechanism to fatten the stock in the summer and fall seasons. The collectives made all decisions over allocations of animals, and specialization in tasks and species. Although these functions may have been subsumed by the collectives, the customary institutions did not disappear altogether, as is demonstrated by the fact that many hot ails (traditional white felt tents) have re-emerged during the transition to a market economy (Schmidt et al. 2002, Janzen, 2005, Schmidt, 2006, Reading et al. 2006).

Since the de-collectivisation started in the early 1990s, pastoral movement became less frequent and shorter due to the lack of subsidies to maintain transportation for long-distance travel and preference to stay closer to settled areas (Janzen 2005, Fernandez-Jimenez 2006, Reading et al. 2006). The higher concentration of livestock near settled areas and year-round use of riparian zones have led to deterioration of the rangelands (Ojima et al. 2004; Janzen 2005; and Chuluun et al. 2005).

Livestock Changes: Additional stresses on the system were caused by the changing livestock rates due to market factors contributing to the expansion of cashmere production in the region, and the increase in the number of goats since 1990 when Mongolia shifted to a free-market economy. In addition, during this transition period, unemployment increased because of stagnation of enterprises in the capital city and other civic centers, and poverty increased in part due to accelerating inflation. Accompanying these trends is a decline in social services available in these civic centers. Numerous small administrative units or villages became less viable due to lack of economic and resource support from the central government. Although livestock was privatized in rural areas and the number of animals increased, the livestock industry suffered due to degradation of pastures and unfavourable climate conditions (i.e., summer droughts followed by winter storms or zuds) in recent years (1999 to 2002). The higher concentration of livestock near settled areas and year-round use of riparian zones have led to deterioration of the rangelands (Ojima et al. 2004). As a result, livestock herd size shrank and poverty increased.

Cultural patterns of livestock movement have changed during the past several decades that have increased the vulnerability of these pastoral communities to climate change. Environmental degradation has increased markedly in Mongolia and is associated with increased livestock numbers. Since about 1995, the area of highly degraded land increased 1.8 times (MNE 2001) and desertification in the arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia increased by 3.4% during 1990-2004 (MNE 2006). Acceleration in desertification occurred in part because of human influences and in part due to the changing climate. As the number of livestock exceeded pasture carrying capacity, a number of impacts have been observed. These include pastureland degradation, plant production decline, ecosystem breakdown, and a shift of grasslands to more desert-like conditions. In some areas, soil deteriorated and sand migration increased as bushes and trees, which arrest sand migration, were cut for local use.

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Method for Rangeland Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt (Adger, 2006 and Coleen, 2007). Rangeland ecological vulnerability is high with drought increase and plant biomass decrease due to overgrazing. Rangeland ecological vulnerability includes drought index and pasture-use index (Figure 2.3.3).

Rangeland Ecosystems Vulnerability Index

NDEV ∆+=

SE- Rangeland ecosystem vulnerability index; D - drought Index; N∆ -Pasture use index

Drought Index

The big drought occurred in 1944. Temperature during November 1944 to April 1945 was cold by 5.9 0C to 11.40C from long-term average, the snow depth was 15-28 cm, and cold storms were happening frequently.

The integrated zud index (Natsagdorj & Sarantuya 2004) is higher when the winter is colder and snowy, and summer is drier and hot. This integrated zud index, which accounted for previous summer’s drought, had very good correlation with livestock numbers lost during zud.

Summer drought index and winter indexes were calculated using Ped index-difference normalized temperature and normalized precipitation indexes as:

∑ ∑= =

−−

−=

n

t

n

t RT

RRTTD1 1 σσ

[1]

where D=drought index; Ti and Ri = temperature and precipitation for particular months at the “i” station; Ti and Ri = an average temperature and precipitation for particular months at the “i”

Figure 2.3.3. Methodology scheme

Climate change impact

Human impact

Pasture use index

Drought index Rangeland ecosystem vulnerability index

45

station; Tσ and Rσ = fluctuation of temperature and precipitation for particular months at the “i” station, defined with the following formula:

∑=

−⋅−

=n

ii xx

n 1

2)(1

1σ

[3]

where xi is the “i”-th value of x and <x> is arithmetic average.

Pasture use index

Rangeland use index was calculated using the formula:

−=∆

o

o

NNN

N α

Where ⌂N - pasture use index; N-livestock density, sheep unit/ha; N0-carrying capacity, sheep unit/ha (Mongolian National Atlas. 1990, 2009 and Tserendash. 2006); α- pasture management coefficient.

Research Outcomes

Drought Assessment

Drought was assessed on temporal and spatial scales at aimag level in Mongolia (Figure 2.3.4. and 2.3.5). Drought had an increasing trend during 68 years between 1940 and 2008. Omnogov’, Hovd and Uvs aimags had the highest drought average index during 1970-1990. The Gobi and dry end of the steppe region also had a very high or high drought index as expected. Figure 2.3.5. Long-term Drought Dynamics in Mongolia

Inde

x

1991-20081970-1990

Figure 2.3.4. Drought Assessment of Mongolia

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The Gobi region is impacted by drought since 1990 more than other ecological regions. Uvs, Hovd, Gov’-Altai, Bayanhongor, Omnogov’, Dundgov’, and Tov aimags are on the list with the highest drought index during 1990-2008. It is noteworthy that central region of Mongolia (Hovsgol, Bulgan, Arkhangai and Tov aimags), located primarily in forest-steppe region, is experiencing more droughts since 1990 as compared to earlier. Increased drought frequency and intensity during the last 68 years can be explained with global warming intensification. The knowledge of current drought trends and dynamics are very important not only for prevention of future risks, but also for development of climate change adaptation policy and implementation of actions.

Pasture Use Index

In addition to climate change, human factor is critical for land degradation and desertification. Overgrazing tends to increase in central regions, where human density is increasing due to migration from rural to urban areas. Pasture use index defined by livestock density relative to carrying capacity is shown spatially and temporally. Only a few aimags like Hovd followed by Omnogov’, Dundgov’, Bayan-Olgii, Uvs and Bulgan aimags over-used their forage resources between 1970 and 1990. The entire central and most of the western regions started to heavily graze their rangelands during 1990-2008 with Hovd, Bulgan, Omnogov’ and Baynahongor aimags leading in terms of overgrazing. Pasture use dynamics follow the same pattern of livestock dynamics, being relatively constant during 1970-1990, increasing until 1999, then dropping due to droughts and zuds, and increasing again since 2002 (Figure 2.3.6).

1970-1990 1991-2008

Figure 2.3.6. Pasture Use Assessment of Mongolia

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The Mongolian pastoral system was resilient in terms of livestock recovery, but it is not sustainable from socio-ecological point of view. We are degrading the rangelands with overgrazing, and exceeding the carrying capacity. In addition, it is possible that we may suffer a major economic setback again if climate disasters that struck during 1999-2002 were to recur. We would have suffered lesser losses even during 1999-2002 events had we set up a successful policy in meat export. Increased meat export is win-win situation both socio-economically and ecologically.

Pastoral Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

We tried to assess rangeland ecosystems vulnerability both to drought and stocking intensity in temporal and spatial dimensions for the first time in Mongolia (Figure 2.3.7). Climate disasters and grazing intensity were two factors we accounted for in this assessment. Rangeland ecosystems’ vulnerability is high when both drought and land use intensity are high (Altanbagana, 2010 and Chuluun, 2010).

Rangeland ecosystem’s vulnerability to drought and stocking rate was high in western three aimags (Hovd was the most vulnerable) and in the southern Gov’ aimags (Omnogov’ was the most vulnerable) before 1990. However, the vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems has increased enormously since 1991. The vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems increased almost everywhere, except for eastern aimags and 2 western aimags. Central region and the

western 3 aimags became more vulnerable. Omnogov’, Hovd and Bulgan are in the list of the most vulnerable aimags, followed by Dundgov’, Uvs and Arhankhangai aimags in the

Long-term Pasture Use Dynamics in Mongolia

Inde

x

Figure 2.3.7. Rangeland Ecosystems Vulnerability Assessment Biophysical (drought) and human (pasture

use) impact

KhovsgolUvs

Bulgan

Selenge

DornodZavkhan

Bayan-Olgii

KhentiiArkhangai

TovKhovd

SukhbaatarGobi-Altai

Bayankhongor

Ovorkhangai

Dundgobi

Dornogobi

Omnogobi

KhovsgolUvs

Bulgan

Selenge

DornodZavkhan

Bayan-Olgii

KhentiiArkhangai

Tov

KhovdSukhbaatar

Gobi-Altai

BayankhongorOvorkhangai

Dundgobi

Dornogobi

Omnogobi

1991-2008

1970-1990

48

vulnerability index. Not only aimags located in desert steppe and steppe regions such as Hovd, Omnogov’, Dundgovi and Uvs aimags, but even Bulgan and Arkhangai aimags in the forest steppe region are listed among the vulnerable aimags.

Coping Scenarios

Vulnerability Implications

The vulnerability of herders to climate variability has increased since 1990 with the dissolution of the negdels (agricultural cooperatives) and the partial disruption of traditional resilient pastoral networks. Since the dissolution of negdels, no formal regulation or enforcement of land use has been instituted. During the transition to capitalism, the livestock, shelters, and wells were privatized and customary rights to certain pasture lands became weak or unclear, especially in central Mongolia. Now local governments are responsible for resolving land-use disputes rather than using the former policies of the negdel period, but current policies still have some vestiges of the former customary herding rights.

In planning de-collectivization, emphasis was placed on the transfer of assets from the state into the hands of individuals, but at a pace that would not substantially disrupt production or the herding population itself. Consequently, many intermediate forms of organisation between collective and private ownership of livestock have appeared. In some areas, they have persisted and will continue to persist; in others, they were only a short-term solution and have been dissolved. The most common form is the livestock company. Of the 255 collectives in Mongolia which were privatized, 80 still exist in the form of joint stock companies. In structure, these are very similar to the former collectives, although the relationship between company and member herders is significantly different. Typically, companies have retained the ownership of large numbers of animals which are leased to their members, although the terms of the lease vary a great deal between companies. A small number of companies continue to pay their herders a salary, and retain full ownership over the animals.

Livestock numbers were relatively stable until 1990, oscillating between 20 million and 25 million. However, since the privatization of the livestock and entry into the open-market system, the numbers increased to 34 million by 1999 and were up to 35 million in 2005 (National Statistical Office, Mongolia, 2006). A dramatic three-fold increase in the number of goats was experienced due to the popularity of the cashmere market. Opening Mongolia to the global market has had a drastic effect on herders, especially with the cashmere export opportunity to China (World Bank, 2003).

Self-organisation and Policy for Sustainable Pastoral Community

The new Mongolian constitution of 1992 guarantees for the people the right of free choice of their place of residence. This is the legal basis for the ongoing internal migration process in the country. Recently, two interesting self-organisation processes are going on in Mongolia. One is rural to urban migration: Central region comprising three major cities with approximately half of the country’s population with the best infrastructures and social services in the country became a magnet for rural population. This gave rise to a broken spatial symmetry with the emergence of

49

central north urban region. Another trend is emergence of cooperatives based on traditional pastoral networks such as neg golynhon or neg nutgiinhan.

The existing trend among herders to maximise livestock numbers in the existing incentive structure is the primary challenge to building sustainable rangeland management. The solution is to find and implement mechanisms/tools to encourage herders to adopt more sustainable strategies of income generation, namely, building self-capacities to mitigate risks, productivity improvement and alternative businesses. Productivity improvement and alternative income generation activities are crucial for changing the existing behaviour of herders to maximise animal numbers and compensate potential income losses from restricting animal numbers. The major shortcomings of the government and donor activities in the area of promoting cooperation was that (I) they were not often based on the existing traditional forms of cooperation among herders; (ii) they were generally indicative or imposed one particular form of institution - cooperatives.

Community in broader sense means a group of people/families who cooperate to achieve a common objective. There exist at least two types of herding communities. First, communities are formed around area-based key resources such as seasonal camping areas--water points and marshland might play a key role. In forest-steppe areas, these groups are generally called as people from one “valley or river”. In steppe and Gobi regions they are known as people from one water source. These type of communities usually have to some extent developed customary arrangements for regulating the rangeland use, which provides a good basis for upgrading them into one and other form of grassland management unit. The form, strength and frequency of cooperation among members of this type of herding community varies greatly from case to case starting from just simple consultation on one and other issues to deep joint collaboration on complicated business-related activities such as organizing joint marketing efforts and otors. Thus, the common camping area and associated forms of cooperation are just a starting point or basis for cooperation but do not represent full range of cooperation.

Development levels of pastoral communities are dependent on many other factors such as whether they have strong leaders or not, cultural differences, etc. This is especially true for another type of community that is based on an important business activity that is common to members. This type of cooperation is intensively developing in the post-negdel period as a response of herders to the transitional problems which require collective actions by herding families. The primary activity on which a community is based also varies from case to case, including areas of marketing, crop farming, haymaking, and processing. Because member-herders might not have the same camping area, this type of community may not be easily upgraded into grassland management unit, but it does provide a good basis for strengthening herders’ community-based organisations and providing support or indirect inputs to grassland management.

The followings are some reasons why cooperation is important:

1. Majority of the herding households are too small to run their business efficiently. This constraint influences all areas of herding business, e.g. inadequately small herd size means

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inadequate herd structure that substantially impacts livestock outputs and very low bargaining power of herders against private traders. Herders, especially the poorer ones, lack resources to efficiently combat production and price risks. For instance, they could lack transportation to timely organise an otor.

2. There is a great potential to improve the performance of the industry by realizing economies of scale through enhanced co-operation among herding households. Economies of scale can be realised in two ways (I) delivering most services in an organised way; this covers almost all the range of services, including veterinary and breeding activities and social services for herders. Fragmentation of the industry by small herding families over enormous territory with poor infrastructure has become one of the most difficult barriers to the delivery of services to herders; (ii) cooperation will provide more opportunities for freeing hands to undertake alternative income generation activities that are not possible under the existing system.

3. Cooperation has the potential to provide an easy solution to the longstanding institutional problem of herders-non-legal status. This can be implemented by upgrading the existing customary groups of herders to one and other form of formal institution.

Upgrading informal institutions of herders into one or other form of formal institutions was seen by many herders as one of the necessary and first steps in strengthening herding communities. In contrast to formal economic entities, herders are not 'legal bodies' , they are not registered and do not have a bank account, which seriously restrains them from developing capacities to advocate own interests and have equal powers in relationships with other bodies.

4. Finally, strengthening of the traditional coping mechanisms in the face of climate variability and extreme events, and sustainable use of rangeland ecosystems, would decrease the vulnerability of the pastoral communities to climate change and other global perturbations.

The following are some general rules that can be followed for strengthening traditional herders' communities:

Ø Starting with the most simple and elementary activities to gain herders' support;

Ø As much as possible on-site face-to-face work with communities;

Ø Finding a ‘right leader'’ and relying on him/her for strengthening a community;

Ø Convincing through demonstration and not imposing;

Ø Ability to appreciate a little, and not be over-ambitious;

Ø Being innovative and assisting herders to be innovative;

Ø Encouraging leaders to be patient and flexible in managing the collective and dealing with problems encountered;

Ø Undertaking good public relations activities;

Ø Voluntarism is and should remain a key principle in promoting cooperation among herders.

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Ø Promoting cooperation among herders.

Sustainability Considerations

The key to sustainability lies in enhancing the resilience of communities (Walker and Salt, 2006). Resilience is the ability to absorb change and still retain the basic function and structure. Interestingly, cooperatives based on traditional pastoral networks are re-emerging in response to recent drought and extreme winter conditions (1999-2002) in Mongolia. The comparative study of pastoral communities showed that a pastoral community, where a cooperative was based on a traditional network, had lost less livestock as compared to other communities during the recent climate disaster (Chuluun & Enkh-Amgalan, 2003). Today the Mongolian rangelands are at the cusp of two pathways: predominantly private land ownership or traditional land use culture operated by traditional pastoral resilient networks. It appears that promotion of cooperatives based on traditional resilient pastoral networks will lead to a reduction in the vulnerability of Mongolian pastoral systems in future.

The main method of ensuring long-term sustainable development of pastoral animal husbandry is to use natural pastures and hay, and to maintain ecosystem integrity. In Mongolia, almost half (159 out of 330 sums) of the county-level administrative units have no seasonal grazing lands due to the small land area and more homogeneous nature of landscapes occupied by these sum- level administrative units (Bazargur, 2005). Because of this, the pasture-carrying capacity and forage biomass has decreased and degraded. Development of regional rural policies which allow for greater flexibility of livestock movement along the more traditional systems is re-emerging as a policy instrument. Support from government and nomadic herders has led to reorganisation of regional government that encompasses territories of several ecological zones and restores culturally traditional landscapes similar to those existing in the early 1900s. This system provides greater flexibility of pastoral management, especially under high climate variability as experienced by herders in the Gobi region and other steppe areas where climate fluctuations are large and drought frequency is high.

Recent proposals for policy changes have suggested a modification of the major administrative boundaries to allow greater access to natural resources and seasonal grazing lands to better sustain the pastoral livelihood. The policy is designed to develop a settlement pattern that reduces the concentration of population around major civic centers, and to promote usage of resources associated with rural areas of the country. These new administrative and territorial units have been proposed to enhance socio-economic optimality, environmental sustainability, and historical and cultural acceptability by citizens (Chuluun, 2005). Reforming and enlarging administrative and territorial units will provide an opportunity to improve the adaptation of the pastoral sector and give greater flexibility for managing livestock densities across a more diverse set of landscape types within a more comprehensive administrative unit. The overall result would be a greater utilisation of the natural landscapes now restricted in the fragmented smaller administrative units of the sums. For this change to succeed, reinvestment in infrastructure to allow for longer movements within these larger administrative units will be necessary, as well as the establishment of rules for access and allocation of seasonal pastures.

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Adaptation options include the development of cultural landscape restoration which incorporates community-based conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, the extension and protection of water points for additional pastureland, agreements between neighbouring sums for communal use of otor and reserve pastures, and the enlargement of administrative-territorial units, for instance, by combining several sums into one unit in order to restore cultural landscapes (Chuluun, 2006). For pastoral communities living in the riparian zones, diversification of the economy and intensification of the livestock industry through ecotourism and farming, the prevention of riparian ecosystems from degradation and desertification and taking animals to otor pastureland during the summer period are some viable options. Protection of springs from degradation by livestock is also critical for communities living in the mountain and forest steppe.

Enhancing collective actions among herders by strengthening the traditional customary arrangements is a key to achieving sustainable pastoral communities. These traditional networks based their livestock management and spatial sharing of key resources on considerations of common seasonal camping areas or water points or meadow areas. This system of social organisation served a regulatory function for land-use management and a mechanism to provide safe-guards against natural hazards. These community networks develop arrangements for regulating rangeland-use, and thus provide a good basis for future development of rangeland management cooperatives. The herders’ interest in maximizing livestock in the current incentive structure is the primary challenge to building sustainable rangeland management (Enh-Amgalan, 2002). Productivity improvement and alternative income-generation activities are crucial for changing the existing behaviour and compensating potential income losses from the restriction of animal numbers.

The development of modern cultural landscapes in Mongolian rangelands includes the strengthening of pastoral traditional networks with introduction of modern technologies such as wireless communication, renewable energy resources, access to appropriate livestock breeding, use of healthy veterinary practices, and access to markets of more finished products. Further development of early-warning systems with the use of integrated technologies, such as remote sensing and modelling and distribution through wireless technologies, can reduce risk in these very vulnerable but productive systems. Given the high literacy rate (97%) of the Mongolian people, there is a good probability of success of such innovative approaches to sustainable development of these cultural landscapes.

Conclusion

Vulnerability to climate change-related drought is high in western and trans-boundary areas between steppe and Gobi, particularly in Hovd, Uvs, and Dundgovi aimags. Stocking rate increased due to increased livestock numbers and decreased ecosystem productivity. Stocking rate increased in most aimags, particularly in Hovd, Bulgan and Omnogovi aimags. Ecological vulnerability increased in Hovd, Omnogov’, and Bulgan aimags since 1990. So it is a clear case for increasing adaptive and resilient capacity in these aimag through sustainable pastoral ecosystem protection management. Social-ecological vulnerability was the highest in Hovd, Uvs, and Dundgovi aimags, when poverty index was taken as the social vulnerability index.

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Global warming, reduction of water and forage resources, rise in human and livestock population, renewable energy and proliferation of information communication technology may serve as critical variables driving the dynamics of the pastoral socio-ecological system. Key resource and ecosystems for the pastoral socio-ecological systems are water and its supporting riparian and forest ecosystems. Pastoral systems are very sensitive to any change in water resources--disappearance of water sources, reduction of water resources, delayed or early melted snow, and no snow condition--due to global warming. Protection of “natural green walls” or riparian ecosystems and forests are more valuable for their service to deliver water and water purification compared to building of artificial “green walls”, which do not deliver any water service.

The cumulative effect of climate change and overgrazing is more widespread because of their effect on key ecosystem services. Vulnerability to climate change is amplified due to overgrazing of rangelands. Overgrazing of rangelands leads to ecosystem degradation, which leads to desertification, water scarcity, increased dust events, and lack of forage, reducing the carrying capacity. All this leads to reduced well-being of herders.

A fragmentation of cultural landscapes in arid and semi-arid lands has increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacities of pastoral systems to climate change. We observed “tragedy of commons” or the maximum environmental degradation in the most fragmented set of resources (Ostrom, 2008). There is some evidence of reduction in economic performance due to fragmentation of cultural landscapes. Social resilience based on traditional pastoral communities tends to get lost. Herders’ groups not based on traditional pastoral communities may have shorter life. And traditional pastoral communities, which existed sustainably for centuries, are eroding.

Win-win model: Many projects are fragmented, as they aim to achieve only fragmented goals such as conservation or poverty reduction, etc (Chuluun, 2008 and Chuluun et al, 2008). We need a win-win situation both ecologically and socially. The best transformation pathway is to strengthen traditional pastoral community-cultural landscape system with opportunities of renewal energy, wireless communication technology (further opening opportunities for distance learning and diagnosis), cultural and ecological tourism and a well-developed industry based on livestock raw materials. Traditional land use strategies operating on a larger spatial scale (cultural landscape) run the danger of getting lost with compression of land use scale near key resource areas in many regions. A reduction in the spatial scale of the cultural landscape has led to increased vulnerability of the human-environmental systems. Interestingly, cooperatives based on traditional pastoral networks are emerging in response to recent climatic complex events of 1999-2002.

Mongolia has about 190,000 herding families, 67% of which own less than 100 livestock. Thus, majority of the Mongolian herders are poor and vulnerable to climate change and they also can’t increase their livestock numbers because natural climatic disasters such as zud and drought regulate the number of livestock. In this case, sustainable community development approach based on traditional pastoral networks is indeed one of the most cost-effective adaptive strategies to uncertain climate and global changes.

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Mongolian herders can strive for a better future in the new millennium by strengthening pastoral traditional networks with the introduction of modern technologies such as wireless communication, Internet, renewable energy resources, etc. Internet connection will give the pastoral community an opportunity for distance learning and organisation of ecotourism activities. Given the high literacy rate (98%) of the Mongolian people, such a future might become a reality given the high speed of information technology development and positive effects of globalization.

Policy Recommendations:

1. To develop a comprehensive program for climate change adaptation in Mongolia. Climate change and desertification are two sides of the coin. Climate change adaptation and sustainable development are closely interlinked. Human development is a key for building resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change and globalization. This is actually a framework for the concept of green development. Therefore, the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, and the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy should jointly work on it.

2. To develop a Government policy to combat desertification and adapt to climate change in each ecological zone. Climate change impact varies from one ecological zone to the other. Therefore, as the Paragraph 6 of the Environmental Policy of the “Comprehensive Policy of National Development” indicates the national program to combat desertification and strategies for climate change adaptation must be developed jointly, but for each ecological zone.

3. To develop new administrative-territorial division of Mongolia in order to improve adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change and globalization, to reduce human-environmental vulnerability and restore traditional cultural landscape.

The government should come up with a “win-win” model, which supports human development and conserves nature and environment as a state policy, especially at the community-level to reduce poverty-ecological vulnerability.

Acknowledgements

Asia Pacific Network on Global Environmental Change project on “Dryland Development Paradigm (DDP) Application for Pastoral Systems in the South-facing Slopes of the Khangai Mountains, the Most Vulnerable to Climate and Land Use Changes in Mongolia” (DDPPS) (APN: 2008CB-FP12-Togtohyn); the NASA-funded project, “Northern Eurasian C-land Use-climate Interactions in the Semi-arid Regions” (Project # NNG05GA33G), and “Poverty Study and Job Support”, a project by UNDP, Ministry of Social Welfare and Labor.

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Sneath, D. 2003. Land use, the environment and development in post-socialist Mongolia. Oxford Development Studies, 31:441-459.

Tserendash, S. 2006. Method for carrying capacity calculation. Ulaanbaatar city. UNDP. 2005. Economic and ecological vulnerabilities and human security in Mongolia. Mongolia:

Interpress. Walker, B., Salt, D. 2006. Resilience thinking: Sustaining ecosystems and people in changing world. USA:

Island press.

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Cross-sectored Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change R. Mijiddorj

Mongolian University of Science and Technology

osm_infor@mongol.net

Abstract

This paper presents the study results of climate change, ecosystems, inter-influences between society and nature, by identifying leading and dependent variables in Mongolia using cross-analysis. The dominant, dependent factors and vulnerability of the main components of ecosystem and socio-economic systems were studied by network analysis across 18 indicators related to climate change, using a correlation matrix.

Key words: Assessment of climate change, cross-impact analysis, forcing component, result component, autonomous component

Introduction

Today the mankind is faced with a wide gamut of issues ranging from food security, poverty and inequitable distribution of wealth and rising incidence of infectious diseases, all of which are made worse by the increasing pressure of climate change on ecology and economy. Therefore climate change cross-sectored impact vulnerability assessment has introductory knowledge and practical value.

Records of 41 meteorological stations of Mongolia show that air temperature per 10 years has increased by 0.060С for 1940-1976, and 0. 520С for 1976-2006. Investigations of the impact of climate change on the ecosystem, its mechanism, scope, and type have great value for evaluating and identifying changes, change features and vulnerability assessment. From climate change studies of the previous years, ecosystem impacts can be grouped as follows:

• Decrease in summer precipitation amount in certain regions, and rise in air temperature

• Precipitatin pattern (thunderstorm, continuous rain) changes in particular natural zones

• Continuous hot weather, interruption of rainy season, occurrence of drought and zud

• Dryness in warm season, especially in the transition season, leading to soil drying, evaporation.

• Intensification of glaciers and permafrost melting in high mountainous areas.

• Increasing frequency of natural disasters and cyclones.

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Increased impacts from ‘lateral’ factors triggering climate change intensity is causing some biological species to degrade, and some others to activate due to drastic impacts on their feeds and food cycles.

The above-listed impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, health, and town are shown in the Figure 2.4.1. The ecosystem impact of climate change can affect the water-heat balance besides leading to drier soil, decrease in pasture and cropland productivity, drying up of small rivers, melting of glaciers, frequency of natural disasters, shortage of drinking water resources, and increase of human and animal diseases.

In future, we need a more complex study to assess how ecosystem, economy and society of Mongolia are vulnerable to climate change and to express the impact in quantity unit. In other words, vulnerability (өртөнги) = ∫ (Risk dependent, sensibility, adaptation capacity). In this framework, you have to identify economic and social vulnerability and sub-sectored relational dependency. But such studies on vulnerability assessment are limited. Therefore to clarify the relation of climate change and economic subsectors, analysis based on the checklist principle has been used. The Impact Cross Analysis method helps to identify the variables and the relation between them (Holling, 1978, Martin Parry and Timothy Carter, 1998).

Indicators (variables) used for assessment can be classified as forcing, dependent, autonomous, used to impact, reduce and identify adaptation policy.

Climate change, ecosystem, socio-economic study results using cross-analysis, identification of vulnerability and main forcing and result components are presented in the correlation matrix of 18 indicators. The sum of the accumulated impact is shown along the columns and rows in Figure 2.4.1. Forcing and dependency-level system components can be classified into the following 4 groups.

• Powerful forcing and more dependent relay component

• Powerful forcing and less dependent forcing component

• Weak forcing, much dependent result component

• Weak forcing, less dependent component, relative autonomous component

a) Forcing and More Dependent Relay Component

Cross-analysis results show surface water resources are subject to climate change and belong to relay component strongly affecting other ecosystem components. Also vegetation and animals are much dependent on climate change, but they play forcing factor role in some ways. The precipitation pattern change (convective rain dominates) without significant changes in total annual amount coupled with air temperature rise increases evaporation, which causes imbalance in the soil moisture and dryness.

We can conclude that the dryness would affect all components of the ecosystem, causing shortage of surface water, and land degradation over a vast area. Therefore adaptation to

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climate change and mitigation will depend on efficient use of water accumulated from snow and rain. The dry soil causes the pasture yield to decrease from year to year, thus affecting the sustainability of livestock. On the other hand, animal rearing may benefit from a warmer winter as a result of climate change.

Figure 2.4.1. Relations between System Components.

* Autonomous component- light blue, forcing component-blue, result component- yellow, relay component-green

b) Forcing and less dependent component

Climate change related with global warming belongs to forcing components. It may cause a rise in the frequency of droughts, hot weather, and faster evaporation. All this in turn affects pasture yield and results in drying up of small rivers and springs besides lowering the level of big rivers and lakes. This trend is on the rise.Weak forcing, much dependent result component

Health, migration and settlement, and cropland may be selected as more vulnerable or forcing component. If after a few years and decades, the forest steppe zone is converted into steppe zone, there will be no irrigated arable land, and even technology would be of no help if action is not taken on time.

Vegetation yield for growing season in the desert steppe and desert area of Mongolia depends heavily on the rain as maturity is chiastic. In other words, vegetation grows just after rain during

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the growing season. The maturity period may occur at any time in the growing period depending on the rain. Dry weather would dry up the vegetation, leaving no grass for the livestock.

Such a situation may occur more frequently due to climate change. Therefore herders of Sukhbaatar, Dundgovi, and Dornogovi aimags are migrating. Hundred herders with 90,000 animals left Dundgovi aimag in the last 6-7 years and have not returned. The 80,000 herders with 4 million animals living in 40 soums in the dry steppe zone may also relocate. It won’t be wrong to say that Mongolia has already started experiencing the impacts of “global warming migration”. The migration issue may be complicated by limited encampment (reserved) pasture area, carrying capacity and pasture degradation. A good example of this scenario is Kherlen-Bayan-Ulaan. Increase in the number of hot days also has an adverse impact on the human health and creates favourable conditions for animal diseases (Figure 2.4.1).

d) Weak forcing, less dependent, relatively autonomous component

Mining, tourism, special protected areas belong to weak forcing, less dependent, relatively autonomous component (Figure 1). Though these factors are autonomous, quick changes in temperature, moisture regime, water-heat balance, surface and underground water can change the situation. Therefore, construction projects based on the past 50-60 years of data have high risk of sustainability because of the quickly changing natural landscape.

Conclusion

The vulnerability analysis demonstrates that adaptation measures are crucial to weather the impacts of global warming. The landlocked dry ecosystem’s ability to adapt to climate change is very limited even when these changes are not significant. It would be too late, if we do not take adaptation actions necessary to cope with the impact of climate change on an urgent basis. Therefore, there is a dire need to develop an adaptation policy and allocate national and international resources to it.

References

Batima P., L.Natsagdorj and N.Batnasan. (2007). Vulnerability of Mongolia's pastoralists to climate extremes and changes. In Neil Leary, Cecilia Cande, Jyoti Kulkarni, Anthony Nyong and Juan Pulhin (Eds), Climate change and vulnerability ( pp. 67-87). London

Batjargal Z, Dagvadorj. D., and Batima, P. (2000). Mongolia National Action Programme on climate change (pp.156). Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: JEMR Publishing

Dagvadorj D. and Batjargal Z. (1999). ‘Response action to address climate change problems in Mongolia. Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, 21/2, p. 3-16.

Dagvadorj D. and Mijiddorj R. (1996). Climate change issue in Mongolia, Papers in Meteorology. special Issue, 79-88 (in Mongolian).

Davaa G. 2007. Climate change impact on water regulation and water resource, and rational water use issues, Ecology-Sustainable Development, No. 8, Darkhan-Uul, 44-50 (in Mongolian)

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Davaa G., P.Gomboluudev and D.Batkhuu. 2008. Climate change impact on water resources in Mongolia. Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, No 29/6.

Gomboluudev P. 2006. Future climate change of Mongolia under Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES). Proceedings of Fifth Mongolia-Korea Joint Seminars on Environmental Changes of North East Asia., Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, October 10-14, 2006.

Jugder D. and Chung, Y.S. 2002. Observed climate variability and change in Mongolia. Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol.38, No.6, 593-609.

Mijiddorj R. 2007. Climate change impacts on ecosystem. Proceedings of Ecology-Sustainable Development. No. 8. Darkhan aimag, 21-28 (in Mongolian)

Mijiddorj, R., Dagvadorj, D and Natsagdorj, L. 1994. Climate change and variability studies in Mongolia. Annual Scientific Journal of Hydro. Meteo. 17, 3-10.

Natsagdorj L., Tsatsral, B. and Dulamsuren, D. 2002. Drought research issues in Mongolia. Climate change – Agricultural production (in Mongolian).

Tumurbaatar.B and Mijiddorj.R. 2006. Permafrost and permafrost thaw in Mongolia. In Claude E. Goulden, Jon Gelhans and Bazarsuren Boldgiv (eds). Geology, Biodiversity and Ecology of the Lake Hovsgol (Mongolia), Chapter 3. pp. 41-49. Leiden, The Netherlands: Backbuys Publishers.

Reports:

Batima, P., Myagmarjav, B (Eds). 2005. Climate change and its future trend. Earth system, livestock sector and adaptation project’s study (pp 86). Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: Admon Publishing (in the Mongolian).

Batima, P.,Dagvadorj,D. 2008. Climate change and its impacts Mongolia. National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Monitoring (pp 227). Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: JEMR Publishing.

Batima, P., Myagmarjav, B (Eds). 2005. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector of Mongolia. Earth system, livestock sector and adaptation project’s study, 2002-2004, pp120. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: Admon Publishing (in Mongolian).

Metz, B. et al. (Eds). 2007. Climate change 2007: Mitigation of climate change. Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (pp851). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press.

Parry, M. L., (eds.). 2007. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (pp 976). Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Solomon et al. (Eds). 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 996pp. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press

Books:

Mijiddorj R. (2002). Climate change and sustainable development (pp.1-219). Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. (in Mongolian).

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Mijiddorj R. (2008). Global warming and challenge to desert (pp 62). Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: BCI Publishing (in Mongolian).

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4. Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development

Approaches to Mainstreaming Climate Change into Development and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation as an Emerging Approach Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change Coordinator, UNEP Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Thailand

mozaharul.alam@unep.org

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report has clearly stated that a certain degree of adverse impacts of climate change is unavoidable irrespective of the future trajectory of greenhouse gas emission. Considering the significant impacts of climate change stimuli on development, integration or mainstreaming of climate change, both mitigation and adaptation, into development planning is being discussed at international and national policy making and planning levels. The words integration and mainstreaming are often used as synonymous. Mainstreaming adaptation into climate change primarily refers to the incorporation of different measures at different levels to enhance resilience of vulnerable systems, both natural and human, as a part of development efforts. These measures may include a) revision of existing national and sectored policies to enable actions; b) strengthening of institutional capacity to deal with climate change adaptation, including development of appropriate methods and tools, and providing training to enhance the skills of human resources, etc; c) revision of program and project formulation processes to include different aspects of climate change; and d) pilot demonstration of measures and actions to build confidence at different levels, i.e. international, regional, national, sub-national and local.

At present, mainstreaming climate change into development planning is being driven by different stakeholders at different levels. At the international level, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a key institute supporting processes required for adaptation to climate change, including mainstreaming or integrating into development planning. Key examples are a) Nairobi Work Program for all developing countries, b) National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) for LDCs, which attempts to identify and prioritise immediate and urgent action. Many see this as a first step to integrate climate change adaptation into national-level planning, and c) National Adaptation Plan/Program which is under discussion by the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA). At the national level, several countries in the Asia and the Pacific Region have moved beyond the National Adaptation Program of Action driven by the UNFCCC process and have prepared national climate change strategies and action plans. International development partners have developed climate screening methodologies and tools for assessing vulnerability of on-going projects and to find measures to increase resilience. Examples include OECD declaration on integrating climate adaptation into development co-operation and guidelines on integration, and DFID climate screening tools.

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Among the different mainstreaming approaches, there are common key elements and steps. The key elements are a) assess climate change risk and opportunities in the context of development; b) identify options to address climate risks, including cost-benefit; c) identify possible entry points for considerations of climate change adaptation, which may include Sustainable Development Strategy and Plan, Regular Development (National, sub-national and local level) or livelihood improvement, and Sectored Development Plan (infrastructure, natural resource management, etc.). The key steps include a) raising awareness among policy-makers and planners based on science and development orientation; b) institutional capacity building by introducing methodologies and tools, and trained human resources to planners, program and project developers at different levels i.e. national, sub-national, local and community level, and for different sectors; c) formulation and implementation of measures which could begin with small-scale demonstration and learning by doing to modify measures; and d) monitoring and improvement.

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) is one of the key priority areas of climate change sub-program considering the fact that the impacts of climate change are already affecting the functioning of ecosystems. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, which concluded in 2005, revealed that approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of the examined ecosystem services are being degraded or used unsustainably. Degraded ecosystems have less resilience toward rapid climate change impacts, and their capacity to provide all the services upon which a multitude of sectors and communities depend is being further challenged. Currently over 1 billion people in over 100 developing countries are locked in the cycle of poverty and environmental degradation made worse by the effects of climate change. It is well recognised that healthy ecosystems and their services provide opportunities for sustainable economic prosperity, while at the same time providing defense against the negative effects of climate change.

Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food; regulatory services that affect climate and water cycle; cultural services that provide recreational and spiritual benefits; and supporting services such as nutrient cycling (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Ecosystem-Based Adaptation is defined as the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people and communities adapt to the negative effects of climate change at the local, national, regional and global levels.

UNEP plans to deliver the EBA program through three overarching components in response to country needs i.e. a) assessments and knowledge support, which includes development and collection of appropriate methods and tools; implementation of tools for impact/vulnerability assessments; analyses of ecosystem services and economic values; and capturing good practices, knowledge sharing and awareness raising; b) capacity building and demonstrations, which include technology mobilization, pilot projects and capacity building; and c) integration of EBA options into National Adaptation Plans, which include economic analyses, policy and legislation support, and feasibility studies.

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Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia (2007-2021) in Context of Climate Change Adaptation L.Tsedendamba

Scientific secretary of Mongolian Development Institute,

ltsedendamba@yahoo.com

Abstract

Mongolia supports and endorses the Millennium Declaration adopted at the UN Millennium Summit. The objective of the MDG-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia is to achieve MDGs by strengthening human capacity and intellect, and creating a knowledge-based economy whose growth is ensured through high-technology and environment-friendly production and services. The Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia based on the Millennium Development Goals (2007-2021) is the core of the Environment Policy in Mongolia. Priorities and strategies on environmental policy and climate change adaptation are included in the MDG-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy.

Key words: Millennium Development Goals, National Comprehensive Development Strategy, sustainable development, poverty reduction, social and economical development, environmental policy, strategic objectives, good governance, and climate change and adaptation

(This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Climate, Sustainability and Development in semiarid regions – ICID, August 16-20, 2010, Fortaleza, Brazil).

Introduction

Following the President of Mongolia’s Decree assigning the Government to develop MDG-based long-term National Development Strategy up to 2021, the State Great Hural/Parliament of Mongolia formulated the “MDG-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy” with the help of Mongolian scientists, politicians and citizens, and Mongolian Parliament recently adopted a resolution about an endorsement of this National Development Strategy (NDS). This strategy comprises a wide range of important issues and in a comprehensive manner defined development policy and strategy for the next 15 years. NDS is the basis of intellectual, social and economic development guidelines, which reflect a nation’s aspirations, beliefs, activities and emphasis on unity. This paper reviews the requirements that need to be met for formulating the MDGs-based NDS, its theory and methodology, vision, priorities, main outcomes and the Environmental Policy strategy in the context of climate change adaptation.

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1. The Requirements for Developing MDGs-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia in 2007

Following are the concerns that need to be addressed for developing NDS (Tsedendamba L, 2007):

The result of poverty reduction is insufficient: According to the 2006 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), about 32.2 % of total population or about 202,400 households, in other words 830000 citizens are living in poverty. The poverty incidence in the city is 27.9 % and 37.0 % in rural areas. According to the 2002-2003 LSMS, about 36.1 % of the total population is living below the poverty line, and in the recent three years, the poverty has decreased by only 4 %. In other words, there is a risk of falling in the “frozen circle of poverty”.

Decreasing population growth: The 2 millionth citizen of Mongolia was born in 1988. In 1969-1979 the average growth rate of population was about 3.0 %. In 1990-2006, this was reduced to half and the population under-14 continuously dropped. If this situation persists until 2021, there will not be enough population of working age which will have an adverse effect on the economy. Some scientists have remarked that this phenomenon could draw down to nation’s end. So there is a need to adopt a policy for promoting population growth.

Educational system is not up to date: There are a limited opportunities for children of poor families, particularly in rural areas, for enrollment in pre-school education. Also children with disabilities encounter various obstacles in acquiring social services and primary education in special schools. The %age of children between the ages of 8 and 15 with limited access to primary education still remains considerable. The right of every child to primary education isn’t being implementing properly. The difference in primary and secondary education services in urban, suburban and rural areas still remains significant. And the quality of high education is not up to the mark.

Inadequate health care and medical system: There are numerous patients going overseas for expensive medical treatments and diagnosis. The current medical treatment and diagnosis methodology is unable to meet the population’s health needs and social requirements. At least 20 % of diseased children and 15 % of infants have limited access to medical services. AIDS has also begun to rear its head among the population.

Utilisation of land, mineral resources and environmental protection: Global climate change coupled with destructive human activity has had a negative impact on the highly vulnerable environment, and has intensified the process of desertification, soil erosion, pasture deficiency, water shortage, depletion of biological diversity and natural disasters.

There are many problems related to economical development and growth (Tsedendamba, L. 2009). The Mongolian economy growth hasn’t yet reached the required level. A study of developed countries shows that in the early years of their development the economy growth stayed at a constantly high level. For example, in 1980-1987, the economic growth of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea countries was 8-9 %. But in the case of Mongolia, the annual average growth in the past 5 years was about 7.1 %. This growth is being fueled primarily

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by mining and quarrying, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade industries. In the recent years, the country’s per capita income still remained low although the economy was growing rapidly. Countries are divided into four groups according to the per capita income: developed countries have an annual per capita of USD 10726 and more; upper middle-income economies have an annual per capita of around USD 3465-USD 10725; low middle-income economies have a per capita of USD 876-USD 3465, while for low-income economies this sum stands at USD 875 and lower. In Mongolia, the annual GNI per capita was USD 1235 in 2007.

Although during the past few years, the Mongolian economy has grown at a high rate; its structure has not improved significantly. In developed countries, the share of the service sector in the GDP is about 71.0 %, the share of the processing sector is around 27.0 % of the GDP and the agricultural sector’s share is approximately 2.0 %. In low income economies, the service sector’s share in GDP is usually 50.0% that of the processing sector is about 25.0 %, while agriculture has a share of 25.0 % of the GDP.

By 2006, the Mongolian service sector constituted 40.8 % of GDP, while the processing sector, construction together contributed about 40.4 % of GDP, with the remainder 18.8 % coming from the agricultural sector. This demonstrates that the Mongolian economy still falls in the low-income bracket (Figure 3.2.1).

Alteration of GDP industrial composition

24,9%

20,7%

20,6%

21,7%

21,9%

19,5%

20,5%

22,0%

22,5%

25,4%

29,7%

33,5%

40,4%

40,1%

53,1%

56,8%

54,0%

48,6%

44,6%

40,1%

39,4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Agriculture Industry, construction Services

Figure 3.2.1. Mongolian Economic Structure

Good governance. To foster market economy and democratic system, it is essential to intensify public administration reforms and also to establish and strengthen good governance, which is characterised by the participation of the private sector and civil society, transparent implementation of the rule of law, with high level of accountability free of corruption and red tape. Compared to other countries, Mongolia ranked 116th on the human development index in 2006, and at No. 92 on the competitiveness index in the same year.

Global changes are influencing the Mongolian development. Driven by revolutions in science and technology, the mankind is shifting from an industrialised society to a knowledge-based,

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globalizing society. The world economic and market relations are influenced by a totally new context of globalization, manifested in huge movements of people and goods as well as boundless flows of information and services. Experts note that in the coming 15 years, there will be a huge difference in development between countries which benefited from globalization and others which didn’t. This, in turn, is prompting countries around the world to closely align their human and social development policies as well as economic growth forecasts with global and regional development trends.

2. Theoretical approach of the Millennium Development Goals-Based Comprehensive National Development Strategy

Development theories are generally divided into three categories: 1) growth-centered development, 2) people-centered development, and 3) sustainable development (Figure 3.2.2) (Tsedendamba, L. 2007).

The core meaning of growth-centered development approach is economic liberalization, promotion of globalization, elimination of all kinds of trade barriers, and limited government regulations and interventions. People-centered development approach mainly concentrates on improving the quality of life and developing human capacity. Within the framework of this approach, social benefit is much more important than enterprise profitability and economic success.

The third development approach, sustainable development, embraces both the above-mentioned approaches. It is based on comprehensive and interrelated policies formulated within the matrix of economic, social development, environmental protection and good governance. Formulation of the MDG-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia is based on this theoretical approach.

Figure 3.2.2. Development Theory Approaches

The formulation process of the long-term comprehensive national development strategy requires the consideration of above-mentioned development theoretical approaches. And it corresponds

Development Approaches

Sustainable Development

Growth-Centered Development

People-Centered Development

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with the Constitution’s clause “Mongolia shall have an economy based on different forms of property which takes into account universal trends of world economic development and national specifics” (The Constitution of Mongolia, 1992).

Formulation of NDS is mainly based on the third development approach, namely the sustainable development approach, which emphasises comprehensive and interrelated policy within the framework of economic, social development, environmental protection and good governance.

This approach is significant in view of the demand to exploit mineral deposits of strategic importance for economic development.

Long-term development strategy generally consists of a vision and associated strategy objectives. Development vision defines the purpose, which must be achieved in the long-term and it also ties up all strategy objectives in one goal. The vision of various countries generally covers a period of about 15 to 30 years.

Researchers say that each of the strategic objectives has to consider certain issues (problems, capabilities and potential, etc.), study the necessary innovations required to reach sustainable growth and development, ensure that it can be completed in time, is comprehensible, and then involve stakeholders (affinity groups and investors etc.).

Development strategy can be national or sector-specific. It can also be long-term (more than 5 years), medium-term (3-5 years) and short-term (1-2 years). It is possible to implement national development strategy by sectors, and long-term development strategy by medium-term development. NDS is nationwide and long-term in nature.

Asian tigers, many developed and highly developing countries, attained success by implementing national long-term policies and strategies. For example, Japan successfully implemented its national long-term strategy called “Sanzenso”, which was reflected in five-year plans. Today it is working toward “A new era for Dynamism-2030”. Many other countries such as Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, India, China, and England also have successful long-term strategies. Russia has its “Russian development strategy 2020” by which it plans to increase its per capita income to USD 30, 000 by 2020. Kazakhstan is implementing “Kazakhstan-2030”. UN and other international organisations also pay special to long-term sustainable development policies as is evident from Rio de Janeiro declaration 1992 and UN’s Millennium Development Declaration 2000.

3. Formulation of MDGs-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia

President of Mongolia made a decision based on the above factors to promulgate Millennium Development Goals-Based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia by the ordinance №05 on February 13, 2006 and set up a work team. Its members included parliamentarians, president of Academy of Science, directors of some universities, leading scientists, specialists and representative of citizens.

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Citizens of Mongolia took an active part in drafting the NDS as the government announced a competition to draw an NDS, and about 30 teams and over 300 scientists and researchers participated and produced their versions of long-term development policies. These versions are reflected in the NDS. Beside this, NDS draft was published in few well-known daily newsletters, and discussed by thousands of readers. It also reflects the opinions of politicians and researchers during seminars organised for brainstorming. We held discussions with political parties, NGOs and private organisations and their opinions are also reflected in the NDS, which was approved by the State Great Khural’s resolution No. 12 on January 31, 2008.

4. Vision of MDG-Based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia

The vision for Mongolia’s national development by the year 2021 is defined as follows:

“Mongolia is a country with vast lands, abundant natural resources, admirable history, and glorious future. We, Mongols, shall respect our history and culture, have our national dignity, be highly educated and confident in ourselves so as to realise our desires and aspirations, live comfortable, prosperous and contented lives in our homeland.” The objective of MDG-based NDS is to achieve the millennium goals by strengthening human capacity and intellect, creating a knowledge-based economy whose growth is ensured through high-technology-based economy, environment-friendly production and services, and a democratic system of governance, which serves its citizens, protects human rights and freedom, and is free from corruption and red tape, thereby protecting Mongolia’s sovereignty and fostering national pride.

5. Priorities of MDG-Based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia

The Mongolian Development priorities for the next 15 years are as follows (MDG-based NDS, 2008):

1) Achieve the MDGs and provide for an all-round development of the Mongolian people.

2) Intensively develop export-oriented, private sector-led, high technology-driven manufacturing and services, with particular focus on development of information, communication, bio and nanotechnologies, transit transportation, logistics, financial mediation services, and better processing of agricultural products in an environmentally sustainable manner.

3) Exploit mineral deposits of strategic importance; generate and accumulate savings, ensure intensive and high economic growth, and develop a modern processing industry.

4) Ensure intensive development of the country’s regions, their infrastructure, and reduce urban-rural development disparities.

5) Create a sustainable environment for development by promoting capacities and means for adaptation to climate change, and by terminating imbalances in the country’s ecosystems and protecting them.

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6) Consolidate political democracy, and foster a transparent, accountable, and just system free from corruption and red tape.

Strategy objectives to implement these priorities were reflected in the NDS in two stages, from 2007 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2021.

6. Main outcomes of the MDGs-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia

The following are the main outcomes expected from MDG-based NDS:

In 2015: As a result of active and rapid economic growth, many new jobs will be created, poverty halved and education and health sectors will see a vast improvement, thereby realizing the MDGs. At this stage, the average economic growth rate will reach no less than 14 % per year, and the per capita GDP will be no less than USD5, 000, and knowledge-based products and services will become a basis of the knowledge-based economy.

There will be an increase in the extraction of mineral resources. The share of the processing industry in GDP will increase fourfold, better technologies would be introduced and product competitiveness increased. It is expected the 50 % of the country’s demand for oil products would be met. And there will be an influx of 500,000 tourists per year. Opportunities for software production and export will be created, consumption will be increased. Around 20,000 to 30,000 households in the districts of the capital city will be connected to the central public utility systems, and an average of 10,000 households will improve their housing conditions annually. Agricultural production and food supplies for population will be improved. Livestock breeding quality improved would be enhanced by using biotechnology and genetic engineering, and steps taken to boost the harvest of crops. The average annual wheat production will increase fourfold, while the average annual production of potatoes and vegetables will increase by 1.5 times. We expect emergence of modern towns with a population of 10,000-20,000 inhabitants alongside large strategic deposits, such as Tavantolgoi and Oyu Tolgoi.

Universities and also treatment and diagnostics centers that meet international standards will be established, and the number of patients going overseas for treatment and diagnostics will fall noticeably. The size of territories of special significance for preservation of the ecosystem balance of Mongolia will be enlarged to no less than 20 % of the total territory, or more than 30 million hectares, thus increasing ecological sustainability.

2016 to 2021: At this stage, the average annual economic growth will be no less than 12 %, and the, GDP per capita no less than USD12, 000, with the development of knowledge-based economy, which will make Mongolia a middle-income country. Shift from extraction of mineral resources to production of end products will be accelerated and demand for oil products would be fully supplied by domestic production. No less than 15,000 households will improve their housing conditions nationwide annually. Regional main centers would be developed, their population reaching no less than 100,000 people each, and favourable conditions would be created for people to enjoy stable lives and work in their localities.

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Intensive farming will be developed, and food needs of the population satisfied mainly by domestic ecologically clean products, and export of food products. A modern transportation, communication and energy infrastructure will be created. The length of the paved roads would reach 11,000 km, while a railroad network will be set up in Western, Gobi and Eastern regions. Mongolia would be able to meet its power, heating and energy needs from domestic sources, and would become a supplier of electricity to the world market. The number of tourists visiting Mongolia every year would equal the country’s population. The average life expectancy will reach 72, while the accessibility and quality of medical services will touch 95 %. Social welfare services too will improve. Of course, we understand that it is the beginning of long road, and it requires a lot of effort to develop our country, and provide for our people’s well being and contentment. It is important to remain united and maintain social, economic and political stability.

7. Strategy on Environmental Policy and Climate change Adaptation in the MDG-based NDS of Mongolia

Strategies on Environmental Policy and Climate change Adaptation are determined in the MDG-based NDS within the framework of Mongolia’s development priority 5 as follows (MDG-based NDS, 2008):

A policy, which envisages a set of integrated economic, social and ecological measures aimed at protecting the environment by taking steps to protect the atmosphere, land, mineral wealth, water, forests, and species of fauna and flora. It will also involve proper utilisation of mineral resources, their rehabilitation; measures for adapting to climate change, and reducing the adverse impacts of desertification and drought. Steps will also be taken to halt the emission of hazardous chemicals and radioactive waste and improve waste management.

Both Phases (2007-2021):

Strategic Objective 1. Limit and terminate nature and environmental pollution and degradation:

• Implement a rehabilitation policy based on economic assessment of damages caused to nature and environment.

• Implement a set of legal, economic, managerial and organisational measures to reduce air pollution in Ulaanbaatar City, major towns and large settlements.

• Prepare and implement a program and plan of actions to reduce air pollution in Ulaanbaatar City and major towns.

• Increase the use of renewable sources of energy, including the use of solar, wind and hydro energy on their own or in combination with each other.

• Implement an integrated policy of using new technology and management to collect, transport, store, sort out, recycle, and reuse solid waste in urban and other settled areas and thus, create new job opportunities.

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• Within the framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, implement a joint project to reduce greenhouse emissions and sell it at a market price. Create an environment monitoring system meeting international standards.

Strategic Objective 2. Implement an integrated policy aimed at proper use of land and mineral resources:

• Enhance the natural resource management at national and local levels by improving laws and regulations on the use of mineral resources and environmental protection; introduce economic instruments to enforce laws, and establish a self-financing mechanism; and improve coordination among different sectors.

• Create a national land heritage fund, comprising pristine areas dear to many generations of Mongolians, enhance the state policy and management of specially protected areas.

• Expand the network of specially protected natural areas, create a sound structure of its administration, and introduce a modern-day security management.

Strategic Objective 3. Necessary conditions will be created for protecting and ensuring proper use of water resources, preventing their shortage, and providing the population with water, which meets health requirements. A national program “Water” shall be implemented:

• Enhance the legal environment for protecting and making proper use of water resources; improve water resource management to save water, its structure and organisation.

• Resolve the problem of public and industrial water supply by replenishing surface water reservoirs by putting some of them into economic circulation.

• Increase water reserves to supply water for cities and mining

Strategic Objective 4. Conditions will be created for sustainable use and protection of forest reserves, reforestation and for maintaining ecological balance:

• Explore forest reserves by using satellite data and remote sensing, determine the sprawl, structure, and composition of forests, develop forest mapping and sustainable forest management programs, and create a forest database based on geographical information systems.

• Within the framework of a medium-term strategic objective, undertake measures to make climate milder, re-stock woodlands and create green zones in Gobi and steppe regions to facilitate the fight against desertification, soil erosion, and sand movement.

• Strengthen forest protection through the introduction of modern management methods; create a liability system to ensure proper use and protection of forests by allowing local residents and communities to own up to 20 % of forests on a contractual basis.

Strategic Objective 5. Check the depletion of animal and plant life, and create conditions for their natural regeneration and sustainable use.

• Revise procedures related to ensuring sustainability and natural growth of populations of rare and extremely rare species, create economic and legal environment for their protection, explore ways of creating reliable biological resources by using

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biotechnological achievements to perform assisted reproduction, and create and protect gene pools of rare and extremely rare species.

• Secure support from international organisations, donor countries and individuals for efficient implementation of long and short-term projects designed to establish and protect reserves and habitats of wildlife.

• Take measures to study reserves of rare and extremely rare plant species, create and protect their gene pool, establish a system of registration, information and monitoring, elaborate a plan for their proper use, provide for restoration and cultivation of rare plants.

Strategic Objective 6. Promote capacity to adapt to climate change and desertification to reduce their negative impacts:

• Undertake a science-based assessment of climate change effects and define their prospects, and implement a policy in line with the concept of sustainable development.

• Assess areas affected by or at the risk of being affected by drought and erosion due to environmental degradation and climate change, define their prospects, and enhance the capacity to adapt to the peculiarities of those areas.

• Choose and cultivate those sorts of grain, potato and vegetables, fodder plants which are hardy and capable of adapting to environmental and climate change, develop new varieties, and introduce advanced methods and technology of farming.

• Develop and implement a policy with regard to regulating the population and structure of livestock in accordance with pastures’ capacity.

• Develop in combination both nomadic and intensive animal husbandries capable of adapting to environmental and climate change.

• Increase public participation in the activities related to climate change and desertification, and to define and introduce adaptation measures among people.

References

The Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia Based on the Millennium Development Goals (2007-2021). 2008. P 7, 40-43, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

The Constitution of Mongolia. 1992. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Tsedendamba, L. 2003. Methods and methodology for developing Mongolia’s National Development Program. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Tsedendamba, L. 2007. Some ways for the improvement of state economic policy. In Training, current status of researches and studies on political sciences, pp 40-55. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Vision 2030-Korea. 2006. A hopeful nation in harmony. August 30, 2006. South Korea.

The Constitution of Mongolia.1992. Chapter one, Article 5

Journal:

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Tsedendamba, L. 2009. Economic development strategy: promoting exports of Mongolia. Development Research of Mongolia, 15-32. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Reports:

Moon-Soo Kang. 2003. Korea’s Economic Development. Seoul: Korea Development Institute.

Shioya, Takafusa. 2004. The role of development planning in Japan. Tokyo.

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New Policy on Combating Desertification in Mongolia Ts. Banzragch and S. Enkhbold

Director of the Sustainable Development and Strategic Planning Department, the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, (banzragch@mne.gov.mn),

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (ebo@greenmongolia.mn)

Desertification: Extent, Trend and Root Causes

Global situation of desertification: Drylands (UNEP, 1992), which are vulnerable to desertification, occupy 47% of the earth’s land area and are home to more than 2 billion people, 90% of them living in developing countries. It is believed that without serious action one-third of the terrestrial ecosystems will disappear by 2025 (http://www.ecoportal.ru). Desertification has economic consequences, negatively impacting people’s livelihoods and increasing poverty and inequality. The annual global economic loss due to desertification is estimated at USD 42 billon (K.Annan, 2008). The major share of this economic loss occurs in developing countries, which are disproportionally affected by desertification.

The United Nations Convention for Combating Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from factors such as climatic variations and human activities. According to the definition of UNCCD, almost 90% of Mongolia’s territory is vulnerable to land degradation and desertification. A recent assessment of desertification in Mongolia shows that 5% are very severely, 18% severely, 26% moderately and 23% slightly degraded (Dash D et al., 2006). This means that roughly 72% of the total territory is affected by desertification to some extent. Especially affected are the territories of the Uvs lake basin, the great lake depression, and Dundgobi and Dornogobi aimags. Land degradation and desertification have a negative impact on the economies of rural settlements such as Khukh-Morit, Zamiin-Uud, Tes, Urgamal and some other 145 settlements that experience sand burial and shifts, and water scarcity.

Causes of desertification in Mongolia: The Mongolian plateau with an average altitude of 1500m is characterised by a continental climate. This means low precipitation levels, and high variation of seasonal and daily temperatures. This makes this ecosystem vulnerable to climatic variations and the negative effects of inappropriate natural resource management. Climate change is pronounced in Mongolia with an increase in the mean annual temperature of 2.1°C between 1940 and 2007 with an accelerating trend in the recent years. While temperatures have been increasing, the mean annual precipitation has been decreasing in the south and in the center while slightly increasing in other areas. Summer rainfall patterns are changing. The frequency of rainfall covering large areas has decreased and precipitation falls increasingly in form of torrential rains on small land surfaces. The Hydro-meteorological Institute estimates an increase of 20% since 1980 in torrential rains (Natsagdorj L, 2006).

According to the Hydro-meteorological Institute, evapo-transpiration has also increased by 3.2% -10% in the desert zones and by 10-15% in the forest steppe and High Mountain zones between

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1940 and 2006 (Natsagdorj L, 2004). Between 1960 and 2006, the number of days with dust and sandstorm events multiplied by between 3 and 4 times, with 61 days of such events in the Gobi and 127 in the great lake depression. Surface water sources are disappearing at an alarming rate. Compared to the 1970 census, 683 rivers, 1,484 springs and 760 lakes have dried out by 2003.

Overgrazing is the major cause of land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. According to an assessment by the Agency for Land Affairs, Construction, Geodesy and Cartography conducted between 1999 and 2004, pasture carrying capacity was exceeded by 32.5%, which is equivalent to an excess of 16 million sheep units. In 2008, livestock levels had reached 43.2 million heads which is roughly 70 million sheep unit, 46% of them goats, as opposed to a 50 million sheep unit average during the period 1940-1994 with much lower share of goats.

Another direct human impact is deforestation. Saxaul (Haloxylon ammodendron) forests, for example, are vital for desert ecosystems and they make up one-fourth of the 12.1% land area covered by forests and shrubs. Saxaul is used as energy source for heating and cooking. Since 1970, 125,000 hectares of Saxaul stands have been destroyed and 370,000 hectares lost their regenerative capacity. This is a major cause of desertification, sand movement and dust storms originating from these areas.

Abandoned croplands, mining activities and unpaved multi-track roads also directly contribute to land degradation.

Actions implemented to combat desertification in Mongolia under the UNCCD convention

Mongolia is a party to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification (UNCCD) since 1996. Established in 1994 as a result of the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, UNCCD aims at combating desertification through national action programs.

As part of UNCCD, Mongolia has developed three National Action Plans (NAPs) so far (1996 and 2003). The first NAP (NAP CD 1) was developed by UNEP in collaboration with the Government of Mongolia. During the evaluation and reporting of the first NAP, the need for a new NAP became evident, which was then adopted in 2003 (NAP CD 2).

In the implementation framework of these two NAPs, the Government of Mongolia focused on national capacity building for combating desertification and the creation of a more viable policy and legal environment to take real actions. For this purpose, the National Committee on Combating Desertification (NCCD) was established under the operational office of the Ministry of Nature and Environment and the Desertification Study Centre (DSC) under the Mongolian Academy of Sciences. The national legal framework has been strengthened by a number of new or modified laws regarding ecosystem management (Law on Land, Law on Land Fees, Buffer zone Law, Law on Environmental Impact Assessment, etc.).

A series of actions have been initiated to reduce the impact of drought, land degradation and desertification in vulnerable areas, such as by establishing and restoring local tree breeding

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nurseries and creation of protective forest strips surrounding settlements, e.g. the “Green belt” government action program.

The Academy of Sciences and its research institutes conducted three nation-wide desertification assessments in 1990, 2000 and 2006 that provided data on the scope of desertification and the role of pasture degradation therein, prompting concrete actions. Furthermore, the research institutes actively supported the development of a region-wide action program on yellow dust assessment and monitoring in North-East Asia. The government of major countries in North East Asia agreed to cooperate on the implementation of this program and the Government of Mongolia with support of these countries is now establishing a national network to monitor yellow dust and assess its trends.

To ensure the effective implementation of the two NAPs, the Ministry of Nature and Environment and NCCD have increased their cooperation with international agencies and donor countries. Also, an effective partnership was established with neighbouring countries and parties to UNCCD. As a result of this cooperation and the support of UNCCD, Mongolia became the host country for the “Thematic Program Network on Mitigating Drought and Capacity building” in 2004.

The implementation of the two NAPs has benefited from active support of donor agencies such as GEF, UNDP (SLM), UNCCD, UNEP, GTZ, SDC (CODEP), Japan Green Resource Agency and others. This cooperation enabled the strengthening of the national capacity of the major government institutions involved in combating desertification, improvement of natural resource use, and management through introduction and adoption of new technologies and approaches, thus ensuring sustainable economic and social growth in the affected areas. Further, this cooperation had a positive impact on livelihoods through community development, and helped to raise awareness of local population about desertification.

The Rationale for the Formulation of NAP CD for 2010-2020

The reason for formulating a new NAP CD 2010-2020 is the limited impact of the two former NAPs. Considering the vital gravity of the problem, there is a need to address desertification in a different and much more resolute way. The rationales for the NAP CD 2010-2020 are defined as follows:

1. The impact of desertification on economy, society and livelihood of population has become a major challenge for the 21st century. Therefore, there is a need to develop a strategy which will allow participation and involvement at all levels to tackle the impact of land degradation, desertification and biodiversity loss. For this, it is necessary to integrate science, technology and knowledge in the process of combating and coping with desertification. All this can effectively be implemented based on well-defined long-term objectives, and comprehensive planning.

2. In 2009 on its 9th Conference of Parties (COP9), UNCCD adopted its strategy for the next 10 years. Countries parties to UNCCD are called to revise their NAPs and adapt their content in line with the COP9 strategy.

3. Alignment with national policy and strategies: The Government of Mongolia has adopted two global development strategies, namely the MDG-based National Development Strategy and the

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National Program for Regional Development. Thus, the Government is revising its national policies, programs and projects in order to increase coherence.

4. In May 2009, the National Security Council called for a meeting that introduced the state, extent, and trends of desertification. The National Security Council decided to revise the NAP CD in line with the National Development Strategy, and to develop a more feasible action plan for the next few years. It also sought the cooperation of all relevant institutions for combating and coping with desertification.

Strategic Objectives, Guiding Principles and Expected Results

The NAP CD is embedded into the overarching policy and legal framework of Mongolia, including the Constitution and legislation of the country and international commitments and conventions. Among them, the most directly relevant for NAP CD are:

• MDG 7 Ensuring Environmental Sustainability: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources.

• MDG-based Comprehensive Development Strategy of Mongolia: Objectives related to rural development, agriculture, water, forests, protected areas.

Overall Objective of NAP CD

To prevent, cope with and revert desertification and land degradation in Mongolia to ensure environmental sustainability, improve livelihoods of the rural population, and generate environmental services of global importance.

This will be achieved by:

• strengthening the institutional capacity

• improving the legal and policy framework

• enhancing science, technology and knowledge

• investing in advocacy, awareness-raising and education

• intensifying concrete actions at the grassroots level, increasing investment

The strategic objectives of NAP CD

Three strategic objectives have been formulated to which NAP CD will provide a significant contribution. These are:

1. To improve the living conditions of the rural population

It is recognised that poverty is one of the root causes of degradation of natural resources and desertification in Mongolia. Therefore, it is crucial that the measures of NAP CD are taken in ways that benefit the local populations, particularly the poorer segments among them. Two complementary strategies will help to achieve this objective. One is to increase the benefit

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from management of natural resources by the local households and communities. The other, not less important, is to create alternative income opportunities for the people living in rural areas.

2. To improve the condition of affected ecosystems

The ongoing degradation of the natural resource base of Mongolia is part of a vicious circle in which the causes and effects of degradation reinforce each other, leading to an ever increasing pace of devastation. This is most visible in the desert steppes of the Gobi region and the Great Lakes’ depression which turn into desert and are not able anymore to feed the animals of the herders who move more and more towards north and the center of the country. It is imperative to reverse this trend and to safeguard the environmental conditions which are the basis for social and economic development.

It is difficult to determine how much of the ongoing degradation process in Mongolia is due to the effects of climate change and how much is due to human induced factors. However, there is no doubt that climate change increases the vulnerability of ecosystems and amplifies the effects of mismanagement of the natural resources. Therefore, NAP CD invests mainly in addressing the man-made causes of land degradation and desertification, and tries wherever possible to reduce the risk of collapse of ecosystems and livelihood systems.

3. To generate environmental services of global importance

The increasing global awareness regarding climate change offers new opportunities to address land degradation and desertification. Already now, and probably even more in the future, important financial resources are invested worldwide for carbon sequestration in order to achieve the targets on green house gas emissions set by the countries. It is expected that Mongolia could profit from these financing mechanisms on the condition that the trend of environmental degradation is reversed and its vegetation cover and soil quality is improved. This in turn would improve the natural resource base for the economic development of the rural population. There are two major challenges Mongolia has to overcome in this regard: it has to make sure that the major beneficiaries will be the rural managers of the natural resources and that the measures taken will bring lasting changes. These measures need to be implemented in synergy and complementarities with other conventions like the Conventions on Climate Change and Biodiversity.

Guiding principles

The intention of this new action program is to bring fundamental changes by addressing land degradation and desertification in a different and much more resolute way than in the past. The following guidelines describe the new strategies and approaches which will be applied in the different components:

1. Increase the understanding of the root causes and trends of desertification and possible ways to address them (at policy and decision maker level as well as for the general public).

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2. Address desertification not as a special additional program but as an integral part of the ordinary planning, budgeting and implementation of all ministries and organisations concerned.

3. Reorganise the relationship between local government and population.

4. Encourage resource users’ participation in the implementation of NAP through incentives rather than disincentives.

5. Invest primarily in areas which are not yet too much degraded, where there is a good potential to bring tangible improvements with limited resources. Invest less in extremely degraded areas and only where there is a need for it and where there will be tangible benefits for the population (e.g. protection of vital infrastructure and settlements from sand movement).

6. It is understood that desertification is by far the most important environmental issue of Mongolia. It endangers the nomadic and semi-nomadic lifestyle and the cultural identity of Mongolia. It threatens the livelihoods of the rural population which is about 40% of the total populace of the country and it increases the risks of serious conflicts among the population. Therefore, it is recommended to formally treat desertification as an issue of national security.

References

Dash, D., Mandakh, N., Khaulenbek A. 2006. Desertification assessment of Mongolia.

Natsagdorj, L. 2006. Climate change factors issues on pastoral degradation of Mongolia. Improvement issues on pastoral management (pp.125-140).

Natsagdorj L. 2004. Terrestrial surface evaporation change in Mongolia. Wat.Met.Inst Scientific Papers, 26, pp 42-55

UN secretary K.Annan’s Proclamation for the World Desertification Day.

UNEP. 1992. World Atlas of Desertification

http://www.ecoportal.ru. 2004-06-18

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Technology Transfer Role in Alleviation of Climate Change Impact in Mongolia B.Tsogoo, D. Borchuluun, J.Dorjpure, D. Sengelmaa

Mongolian Development Institute1, EEC Mongolia, Open Society Forums

E-mail: baltav.tsogoo@yahoo.com, borchuluun@gmail.com, jdorjpurev@yahoo.com, sengelmaa@gmail.com

Abstract

Global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by approximately 24% since 1990, despite action taken under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Climate change is already causing dynamic interdisciplinary challenges to Mongolia. The results of observations at meteorological stations show that the annual mean temperatures have risen by 2.10C between 1940 and 2007. The effects of climate change will have disproportionately adverse impacts on the poorest and most vulnerable communities, especially herders, who have come to the threshold of resilience of the nomadic livestock herding culture over diminishing and degrading pasturelands.

State-of-the-art and environmentally energy-efficient technology transfer and adaptation in the culture of drylands communities is necessary to improve decreasing agricultural productivity, industrial competitiveness, and alternative income generation capacity in the face of various external and internal shocks besides decreasing its vulnerability to climate change. It is exciting to note that nomadic pastoral system can be strengthened with renewable mobile energy modules, world's most advanced green infrastructure technologies, wireless communication and information technology, which can together not only lead to better pastoral climate risk management but also to an integrated early warning system. Development of small and medium enterprises, financial services in the securities market, and distance learning and diagnosis will also lead to better standard of life. Though Mongolia’s share in GHG emissions is extremely low, it will keep the impact on environment in mind while doing business as usual or liberalizing trade besides continuing with its emphasis on preserving environmentally efficient traditional nomadic livestock herding culture and indigenous knowledge.

Key words: climate change, environment, trade, trade policy, competitiveness, intellectual property rights, mitigation, land-locked, indigenous knowledge

(This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Climate, Sustainability and Development in semiarid regions – ICID, August 16-20, 2010, Fortaleza, Brazil).

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Introduction

Mongolia is very sensitive to climate change due to its geographic location, sensitive ecosystems, socio-economic condition, and landlocked special geographic status. As a result of climatic variability and the impacts of climate change in the last 40 years, Mongolian ecosystems have been notably altered. These changes have affected desertification, water supply and natural disasters, which in turn affect the environment and lead to financial, environmental and human losses. The Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change (NAPCC) is aimed not only at meeting the UNFCCC obligations, but also at setting priorities for action and for integrating climate change concerns into other national and sectored development plans and programs. The NAPCC is based on the pre-feasibility studies on climate change impact and adaptation assessment, GHG inventories, and GHG mitigation analysis (MARCC, 2010).

The results of observations at meteorological stations show that the annual mean temperatures have risen by 2.10C between 1940 and 2007. The effects of climate change will have disproportionately adverse impacts on the poorest and most vulnerable world communities. Mongolia’s terrestrial ecosystems have been changing over the last two decades. Significant decreases in surface water, grassland and forest areas have been observed, by 19%, 7%and 26%, respectively, and barren land (without grass) has almost tripled, from 52,000 square kilometers to 149,000 square kilometers, almost 10% of the total land area. The size of the snowcap on major mountains has been reduced by 30% as compared with that in the 1940s. The increase in frequency of heavy rain has led to a twofold increase in climate related disasters, including flashfloods, with high social and economic costs. It has a total area of 1,565,000 sq. km and 70% of it is already more or less affected by desertification.

It is the 19th largest country in terms of area in the world. It is also one of the largest mainland countries with no access to sea. Agriculture, forestry, and ecosystem of countries like Mongolia, which is affected by droughts, is now facing land degradation; lower yields/crop damage and failure; increased livestock deaths; and increased risk of wildfire. In terms of water resources, Mongolia faces more widespread water stress. Public health, especially those of migrating nomads displaced from their territory due to water shortage and desertification, is at risk. These herders are facing increased risk of food and water shortage, malnutrition and water- and food-borne diseases. Water shortage is also affecting industry, settlements, and the social fabric of Mongolia by triggering migration, both within the country and across the border.

In recent years, even as economic growth has accelerated, the pace of job creation has slowed. Though growth accelerated sharply after 2003, the pace of job creation slowed by nearly 30 %, with only 83,000 net new jobs being created in 2003-2006, compared to 118,000 in 2000-2003. Even more striking is that a stronger net job creation occurred in 2000-2003 even as the number of herders fell by over 43,000, whereas in 2003-2006 the number of herders declined by less than 14,000. The increase in employment outside of the herding sector in 2003-2006 was 97,000, compared to 161,000 in 2000-2003. This is a very sharp decline of nearly 40%. The location of the jobs that have been created offers another explanation for continued high rural poverty rates. The overall pace of job creation slowed significantly during those years, so the actual number of jobs created in these two sectors was only 31,000, less than 4%of the total

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work force. Between 1999 and 2006, the share of the Mongolian work force engaged in the agricultural sector fell from 49.5% to 38.8%. However in that same period, the share of Mongolian GDP that these workers were generating fell from 37% to 18.8 %, i.e. by more than half.

The scale of domestic migration in recent years is demonstrated most clearly in Ulaanbaatar’s population trends. Nearly 70 % increase or addition of 427,000 persons in the capital’s population since 1990 has been due to internal migration. The 1998 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) concluded that the number of poor people had increased slightly, to 850,000, even though in %age terms this reflected a slight decrease in poverty incidence to 35.6%. The third LSMS conducted in 2002-2003 in the aftermath of the three zuds, was further evidence of the depth and intractability of Mongolia’s poverty crisis: that survey found a poverty incidence of 36.1%, virtually unchanged from 1998 (UNDP, 2007).

“New Development” Medium Term Program was established in June 2010 based on provision 2 of Article No. 16 of the Constitution of Mongolia, which states: “Citizens of Mongolia have the right to live in healthy safe environment and to be protected from environmental pollution.” This was reflected in spirit in the government of Mongolia’s Action Plan 2008-2010 as “Movement of in-country migration of population will be coordinated by policy, planning, and the management of region, regional base centers, and subordinate urban cities will be improved, infrastructure will be intensively developed, and thus development gap between cities and urban areas will be reduced.” Comprehensive National Development Strategy based on Millennium Development Goals, the Concept of Mongolian regional development, and medium-term strategy of regional development, will be basis of this program.

Global Challenge of Policy Harmonisation

Globally, it is projected that between 120 million and 1.2 billion people will experience increased water stress by the 2020s, rising by 185 million to 981 million people by the 2050s (Arnell, 2004). Agriculture is highlighted as the sector most vulnerable to climate change. In low-latitude regions, where most developing countries are located, moderate local temperature rise of around 1° C is projected to result in a 5% to 10 % decline in the yields of major cereal crops (World Bank, 2008a; Nyong, 2008 and IPCC, 2007).

Global policy challenge in emission numbers and temperature

• Pre‐industrial emission levels: 280 parts per million of carbon dioxide (ppmCO2e)

• Current: 430 ppmCO2e, rising 2 ppmCO2e per annum (pre‐industrial ‐ never above 300 ppmCO2e for last 650,000 years)

• Upper‐limit target: 550 ppmCO2e

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Temperature Implications at Upper Limit: Increase of 3° C

Figure 3.4.1. Scenarios for GHG Emissions from 2000 to 2100 and Estimates of Corresponding Surface Temperature (IPCC, 2007)

There is growing clamor in industrial countries for additional border taxes on imports from countries with lower carbon prices. We confirm the findings of other research that unilateral emissions cuts by industrial countries will have minimal carbon leakage effects. However, output and exports of energy intensive manufactures are projected to decline, potentially creating pressure for trade action. A key factor affecting the impact of any border taxes is whether they are based on the carbon content of imports or the carbon content of domestic production. Our quantitative estimates suggest that the former action when applied to all merchandise imports would address competitiveness and environmental concerns in high income countries but with serious consequences for trading partners. For example, China’s manufacturing exports would decline by one-fifth and those of all low and middle income countries by 8%; the corresponding declines in real income would be 3.7% and 2.4%. Border tax adjustment based on the carbon content in domestic production would broadly address the competitiveness concerns of producers in high income countries and less seriously damage developing country trade (Aaditya Mattoo et al, 2009).

Kyoto Protocol

The IPCC’s first report in 1990 confirmed that climate change represents a grave threat and, more importantly, called for a global treaty to address the challenge. The Kyoto Protocol in 1997 establishes specific and binding emission reduction commitments for industrialised countries, and represents a significant step forward in a multilateral response to climate change. Scientific

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analyses and multilateral debate on the costs of greenhouse gas emission reductions have, to a large extent, focused on two specific stabilization scenarios and targets.

Table 3.4.1. Estimated Global Macro-economic Costs in 2030 for Lowest Cost Means of

Achieving Different Long term Stabilizations (IPCC, 2007f, Table SPM.4)

The first target, to limit global warming to 2° C, has been set by a number of countries. The second target of 550 parts per million (PPM) of CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq) would lead to a scenario where the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere would be stabilised at around twice its pre-industrial level, which would correspond to a temperature increase of around 3° C. This scenario has been most extensively studied by the IPCC, since it is considered to be the upper limit for avoiding dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Developing countries, including Mongolia, have no binding emission reduction obligations, whereas, industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I parties) must meet agreed levels of emission reductions over an initial commitment period that runs from 2008 to 2012. The Protocol also includes requirements for Annex I parties to monitor and report their greenhouse gas emissions. Annex I parties are also required to provide financial and technological support to developing countries to assist in their efforts to mitigate climate change. The Kyoto Protocol includes three “flexibility mechanism” (emission trading, joint Implementation, and the Clean Development Mechanism) to help parties meet their obligations and achieve their emission reduction commitments in a more cost-efficient manner.

The Government of Mongolia ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1999 following the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which was adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Hence, Mongolia has been involved in climate change activities for about a decade. After the First National Communication was submitted by the government, a national strategy for the climate change program has been developed (MARCC, 2010)..

Its total emission of GHG is relatively small; however Mongolia has developed its strategy and policy to abate GHG emission. Mitigation (Mitigation refers to policies and options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and/or enhancing carbon sinks) and adaptation (to responses aimed at attenuating the negative impacts of climate change or exploiting its potential beneficial effects) are the two major approaches for dealing with climate change and its associated impacts. Mitigation is defined by the IPCC (2007b) as “technological change and substitution that reduce

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resource inputs and emissions per unit of output”. Mitigation reduces the rate and magnitude of climate change and its associated impacts, whereas adaptation increases the ability of people or natural systems to cope with the consequences of the impacts of climatic changes, including increased climate variability and the occurrence of extreme weather (Jones and Preston, 2006, and Wilbanks et al., 2007b). Mitigation is aimed at reducing the volume of accumulated emissions in the future, thereby reducing or avoiding the “worst-case” climate change scenarios, for instance among the SRES scenarios described in previous sub-sections. By reducing the volume of accumulated emissions, mitigation also increases the chances that the remaining climate risks can be successfully managed through adaptation (McKibben and Wilcoxen, 2004, and Wilbanks et al., 2003; WTO-UNEP Report, 2009).

Trade Liberalisation

In the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the WTO, members highlighted a clear link between sustainable development and trade opening – in order to ensure that market opening goes hand in hand with environmental and social objectives. In the ongoing Doha Round of negotiations, members went further in their pledge to pursue a sustainable development path by launching the first-ever multilateral trade and environment negotiations. The 60 years prior to 2008 have been marked by an unprecedented expansion of international trade. In terms of volume, world trade is nearly 32 times greater now than it was in 1950, and the share of global GDP it represents rose from 5.5% in 1950 to 21% in 2007. This enormous expansion in world trade has been made possible by technological changes which have dramatically reduced the cost of transportation and communications, and by the adoption of more open trade and investment policies (WTO-UNEP Report, 2009).

A key environmental policy measure, often used by regulators to induce change in behaviour, is to put a price on pollution. The Trade and Climate Change Report describe two types of pricing mechanism that have been used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: taxes and cap-and-trade systems. Such pricing tools aim at internalizing the environmental externality (i.e. climate change) by setting a price on the carbon content of energy consumed or on the CO2 emissions generated in the production and/or consumption of goods. Paying a price for carbon involves an additional cost for producers and/or consumers, and acts as an incentive to limit their use of carbon-intensive fuels and products, to abate emissions and to shift to less carbon-intensive energy sources and products. Technology and technological limits are also highly important. While it is acknowledged that there is a large potential for technologies to adapt to climate change and for the transfer of such technologies, there may be several limitations to the degree to which adaptation can be handled through technological options (WTO-UNEP Report, 2009).

In terms of trade in services, land-locked developing countries (LLDCs) (http://www.global-event.mn/index.php?pid=18) including Mongolia, play only very marginal role in international service transactions. Other than tourism, which is of economic importance to a few LLDCs, the scope of exportable services is still very limited and the total value is low. In 2002, exports of services of the LLDCs as a group stood at USD 7.7 billion. Most LLDCs were net service importers. Total imports of services amounted to USD 13 billion in the same year (Global Event of Landlocked developing countries and transit countries on trade and trade facilitation, Trade,

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trade facilitation and transit transport issues for landlocked developing countries, Government of Mongolia in partnership with UN-OHRLLS, UNDP, UNCTAD and The Mission of Paraguay in Geneva, 2009).

General Agreements on Trade in Services (GATS) services are presented through 12 sectors and 155 sub-sectors (MTN.GNS/W/12), which is not binding for WTO members. There is no single definition of service in the industry. GATS have universal coverage (Business and Professional, Communications, Construction, Distribution, Education, Environment, Finance and Insurance, Health and Social, Tourism, Recreation, Culture, Sports, Transport, others), including all services except those provided in the exercise of governmental authority and air transport. Service sector accounted for over 50% of the GDP in developing countries and over 70% of OECD countries. Service sector exports grew faster than merchandise exports since 2000 (Over 15% p.a.) in both developed and developing countries. However it contributes no more than one-fourth of trade in goods and yet half of the annual FDI flows are in services (WTO/ESCAP 6th ARTNET Capacity Building Workshop on Trade Research). On the other hand, UNCTAD has estimated tariff losses if proposals in the ongoing NAMA negotiations are concluded. The total tariff losses for developing countries under a new NAMA agreement could be as high as USD63.4 billion or almost ten times the gains predicted by WB for the entire Doha package. Even if such tariff reductions are accompanied by fiscal reforms to boost revenues from other sources, a 2005 IMF study indicates that low income countries recoup only 30 cents at most through reforms for every USD 1 listed in tariff revenues (Rodrik, 2001). Abovementioned unclear insights of service sector presence and estimated tariff loss of NAMA negotiation would address more efficient and beneficial technology transfer from developed to developing countries.

In view of globalization, Mongolia has been pursuing a policy to liberalize its economy, encouraging investment, and improving competitiveness of its trade and services. Within the scope of multilateral cooperation, Mongolia acceded to World Trade Organisation (WTO) in January 29, 1997.

Table 3.4.2. Trade Policy Profile of Mongolia 2007 (Trade Policy Profile 2007, WTO)

With regard to Free trade negotiations and Free trade zones, Mongolia is not integrated with any regional treaties. Its economic growth is dependent on a few sectors such as exploiting production of mining, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and

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telecommunication. Mongolia’s state budget is getting more dependent on revenues generated from minerals sector. In the decade following WTO accession in 1997, total trade has grown four-fold, from USD919.8 million to USD4.1 billion in 2007. There has been a dramatic shift in the structure and pattern of trade. In 1989, Mongolian exports consisted of mineral products (42%), other raw materials (20.4 %), and food products (8 %) and manufactured consumer goods (18 %). In recent years, copper concentrate, gold and other minerals and cashmere products have accounted for more than 90 % of exports. The economy is thus more susceptible to both the booms and busts in the world commodities market (Trade Policy and Human Development in Mongolia, 2009). Exploration and mining licenses have been issued for a total territory of 49.4 million hectares, accounting for approximately 31% of Mongolia’s total territory. As of January 2, 2009, a total of 5,202 licenses were issued and are valid in the mining sector.

Table 3.4.3. Trade Policy Profile of Mongolia, Commercial Services Trade 2007 (Trade Policy Profile 2007, WTO)

Mongolia is trading with around 109 countries around the world, of which it trades with 65 countries on exports and 97 countries on imports. Its total foreign trade turnover surpassed USD 3 billion in 2006 which is an increase of USD 768.7 million or an equivalent of 34.2% as compared to 2005, and for the first time in the last 10 years, it saw a positive balance of trade of approximately USD 40 million in the foreign trade.

Over 6,165 companies with over USD1.8 billion of foreign investment were registered to run their business in Mongolia between 1990 and 2006. Consequently, more than USD 300 million of Official Development Aid (ODA) has started to pour into Mongolia each year. In terms of trade performance of 2007, domestic trade sector covers one-fifth of GDP and 46.4% of the service sector. Over the years, Mongolia has become extremely dependent on foreign aid to finance development. External assistance began in 1990 when all assistance from the former Soviet Union ceased abruptly. In the initial years, external assistance was intended to soften the difficulties of transition. Over the years, it has become more project-based. During the 1990s, ODA averaged 24.0% of the GDP, and represented USD 1.9 billion during 1991-2000. However, as of 2003, external indebtedness is rising. External debt as a ratio to GDP was close to 89.9% in

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2001, up from 60.7% in 1997. Based on the latest figures available (2001), Mongolia is the ninth most aid-dependent country in the world (Human Development Report Mongolia, 2003).

Energy Security

The prospects of a true global recovery after the recent global recession are highly uncertain as demand continues to largely depend on fiscal stimuli, unemployment rates continue to rise, and global imbalances remain large. The economic crisis triggered an unusual global trade shock, equivalent to about 4% of the world output. Countries like Mongolia with a strong concentration of imports in the energy sector have proved to be the most vulnerable to such shocks, followed by manufacturing and mineral exporters. Besides the Middle Eastern countries, oil importing countries in the world are going to seek new resources, with a focus on Russia. A major geographical shift in energy demand has also been noticed. 60% of the increase in primary energy demand will arise in the developing countries of Asia, especially in China and India. Our country meets its supply need of petroleum products through 100% imports, and it has imported approximately 600,000 tonnes of petrol and fuel materials in the last three years. Though Russia is the most promising supplier of energy, there are fears of supply interruption or price increase because of its virtual monopoly. In terms of Mongolian import structure of oil products by country, Russia accounted for 4,56,600 tonnes or 85%, Kazakhstan covered 53,000 tonnes or 10%, and China made up for 29,000 tonnes or 5%. Mongolia has abundant coal resources of 150 billion tonnes and it is necessary to invest more in explorations, industrial, infrastructural, and social and environmental development. Tavantolgoi coal deposit, only 150 kilometers north of the Chinese border in the Gobi desert, is the largest un-mined coking coal deposit in the world. It has approximately 6 billion tonnes of coal, including an estimated 1.8 billion tonnes of high metallurgical value coking coal used in making steel.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that the Oyu Tolgoi agreement is not an inviolate template and the government will not repeat its mistakes in Tavan Tolgoi. He has identified the principal areas where the departure will be seen. Mongolian companies and individuals will play a larger role in developing the project in cooperation with foreign investors and operators, and the benefit to national interests will be the main criterion for selection of the investor(s). Preference will be given to companies and consortiums with their national Government behind them.

The Government of Mongolia considers adoption of the United Nations Environmental Program's “Green Cities Declaration” as part of its Gobi Desert master plan in order to strengthen its prospective cooperation with multiple stakeholders to demonstrate its ability to address the critical environmental issues of energy, waste reduction, urban design, urban nature, transportation, environmental health and water as cited in the Urban Environmental Accords. The Paradise Green Gobi Desert project will incorporate a nationwide large-scale community beautification and industrial zone transformation initiative that will involve the planting of native flowering trees and plants that yield high-value lumber, food, and botanical extracts. The Paradise Green Gobi Desert project partners share a common mission to create a model project that demonstrates the world's most advanced green infrastructure technologies and high-tech sustainable agro-forestry practices. The scope of the project will include:

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(1) Bio-product Processing Center

(2) Paradise Glasshouse Growing Systems – Circulating CO2 Charged Glass Window Panels

(3) Integrated Multi-level Tissue Culture Propagation and Aero-ponic Growing Systems

(4) High-Tech Sustainable Agro-forestry Plantations

(5) Single-Stream Material Recycling Facility

(6) Solar Gasification and Integrated CSP Flash Pyrolysis and UHT Gasification Facility

(7) Gas-To-Liquid Fuel and Chemical Systems

Green City Clean Industry Programme

As per UN/UNDP Global Human Development Report 2007-2008, developed countries have been asked to assist developing countries through technology transfer and direct financial assistance in order to alleviate climate change impacts. The United Nations Green Cities Declaration is a collaborative platform and a call to action for cities across the globe to recognise that a majority of the world’s population now reside in cities, and that cities consume 75% of the world’s natural resources creating severe environmental challenges. The Urban Environmental Accords lay the groundwork for addressing the seven universal urban environmental issues of energy, waste reduction, urban design, urban nature, transportation, environmental health, and water. To achieve a net reduction in global CO2 emissions, green cities, clean industries and rapid reforestation programs require the collaborative effort of government leaders, NGOs, and the global investment banking community. Sustainable economic growth would require strategic integration of agro-forestry, recycling and bio-refineries. Closed loop gasification with Carbon capture and Bio-char production is the natural solution for Sustainable agro-forestry, Green Cities and Clean Industries.

As Deutsche Bank's Pavan Sukdhev, the team leader in the preparation of a new report for the United Nations Environmental Program about the potential impact of greening the global economy puts it: “An investment of USD 50 billion a year in around 100,000 conservation areas worldwide could secure USD5 trillion worth of services provided by these natural assets while generating millions of new jobs and securing the livelihoods for rural and indigenous people.”

Socially responsible investment has caught the attention of many to promote programs such as Spare-time University (STU) and Spare-time schools (STS). During the “Second National Report on Millennium Development Goals’ Implementation in Mongolia 2007”, the presentation of “Global MDGs Monitor–Utilizing new online technology” praised international development organisations’ efforts to integrate IT technology with public education and sustainable development awareness raising. The presentation concentrated on advocating the recent launch of MDGs Monitor, which was created in collaboration with several UN agencies, Cisco and Google as part of UNDP’s efforts to step up national implementation of the MDGs as well as climate change’s interrelated impacts of extreme desertification and stagnant poverty rate.

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The Stabilization Wedges

• Intensified application of existing technologies could stabilise today’s emissions of CO2 up to 2050.

• Stabilization is represented by a "flat" trajectory of fossil fuel emissions at 7 GtC/year, and BAU is represented by a straight‐line "ramp" trajectory rising to 14 GtC/year in 2054. The "stabilization triangle," located between the flat trajectory and BAU, removes exactly one‐third of BAU emissions.

• There are 15 wedges, though only 7 are needed. Refer only to energy‐related CO2 emissions, so their baseline is 25Gt CO2.

The 15 wedges

• Efficient vehicles

• Capture and storage

• Reduced use of vehicular technologies X 3

• Nuclear power

• Efficient buildings for coal

• Renewables X 4

• Efficient coal plants

• Gas for coal

• Reduced de‐forestation and reforestation

• Conservation tillage

Figure 3.4.2. Pascala and Socolow: The Wedges concept

Renewable energy has a major scope for decreasing emissions (Heal, VoxEU)

• We can replace some fossil fuel power with renewable power without a major cost increase, but we cannot hope to replace a major fraction of our fossil power with intermittent power sources such as wind and solar unless we can develop storage technologies.

• Without such storage technology, we will have to rely on non‐renewable but carbon‐free power sources such as nuclear power and coal with carbon capture and storage to provide a significant part of our power (Climate Change: The Science and Vulnerabilities, ESCAP/WTO ARTNET Capacity‐Building Workshop for Trade Research, 2010).

Mongolia is on the brink of large-scale infrastructure construction, and is in urgent need of technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Mongolia’s technology need for mitigation of climate change mainly includes advanced energy production and utilisation technology, environmental protection and resource-comprehensive utilisation technology, high-efficiency

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transportation technology, new material technology, new-style building material technology, etc. Among these needs, the following are the priorities:

- the high-efficiency, low-pollution coal-burning power generation technology, new generation nuclear technology, renewable energy technology, and building energy conservation technology.

- clean fuel vehicle technology, hybrid vehicle technology, urban rail-based traffic technology, fuel cell and hydrogen technology.

- oxygen-rich coal-spray blast furnace & long-life span technology, comprehensive technology for transformation and expansion of medium and small nitrogenous production facilities.

- new paving material technology, and new-type wall-body material technology

Introduction and diffusion of these technologies in Mongolia will make significant difference to the country’s efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.

Technology Need for Adaptation to Climate Change

Mongolia’s technology need for adaptation to climate change mainly includes high-efficiency water-saving agro-technologies such as spray & drip irrigation, water-saving and reusing technology of industrial water, treatment technology of industrial and household wastewater, household water-saving technology; high-efficiency flood-controlling technology; agro-biological technology, agricultural breeding technology, production technology for new types of fertilisers, disease and pest control technology for cropland, forest, and grassland; cultivation technology of fast-growing high-yield forests and high-efficiency firewood forest; technology for recovery and reconstruction of wetland; technology for observation and warning about floods, droughts, blizzard, and agricultural disasters, etc. Timely-acquisition of these technologies can greatly help Mongolia reinforce its capacity for adaptation to climate change.

Environmentally Efficient Indigenous Knowhow

Mongolia agreed to convert its export restriction on raw cashmere to an export tax of 30% ad valorem, and to eliminate the tax after ten years. Mongolia obtained a waiver from the WTO to continue this export tax until 2012. The Council for Trade in Goods, on July 9 2007, approved a request by Mongolia for a five-year waiver on its accession commitment on cashmere. Mongolia recalled that when it acceded in 1997, it had committed to phase out and eliminate an export duty on raw cashmere within ten years. It requested the extension of this phase-out period by another five years due to the importance of cashmere to its economy. Mongolia said that the local cashmere industry has been facing serious difficulties, with employment reduced by half over the last few years. There are also environmental concerns as the increase in exports of raw cashmere has encouraged the growth of goat herds that now surpass the sustainability of the country's pasture lands. India, Turkey, Paraguay and Bolivia supported Mongolia's waiver request. The United States and China said they would not object to the request (http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news07_e/good_counc_9july07_e.htm).

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Applying text-book prediction to Mongolian cashmere, the primary consumers are the domestic processors who should benefit from export tax and the producing herders lose unless compensated through governmental transfers. The porous border with China, however, weakens the effects of an export tax in Mongolia. The herders do not lose much if they access an alternative market, legally or illegally, driven by better financed Chinese processors. Even though the policy of export taxation is supposed to benefit the processing industry, because of smuggling and weaker capacity, they are unable to outbid Chinese traders, who require the long-haired Mongolian variety as an input into their fabric. The lowered margin of domestic prices as a result of an export tax is less meaningful if there are other prices at play, such as much lower interest rates in China (Trade Policy and Human Development in Mongolia, UNDP, 2009). Pure economic interest of raw cashmere market could be rethought in the interest of searching for opportunities of better international market access for local communities of raw cashmere producers and domestic infant industries’ access to modern technologies and innovations. TRIPS Agreement’s massive implications for developing countries relate to the future of local R&D, their access to advanced technology, commercial exploitation of their natural resources and the welfare effects (Intellectual Property Rights, the WTO and Developing Countries, 2000).

Mongolia’s economic growth had been extremely volatile due to confluence of several factors including price fluctuations of key export commodities, and external shocks. Cashmere is one of the strategic and most important export products of Mongolia. In 2005, textile industry (including cashmere processing) contributed 4.5% to gross industrial output and cashmere exports accounted for 9% of the total exports, making cashmere products the country’s third largest exports. The share of textile manufacturing fell by 4.2 %age points as compared to 2002, and the share of cashmere exports in total exports decreased by 5 %age points as compared to 2001.

Currently, cashmere processing entities constitute 4% of the number of active legal entities in manufacturing. Employment in the industry has reduced by half over the last few years: from 7000 in 2003 to 3500 in 2005. Cashmere industry is considered to have the potential to contribute to the growth of the economy, of the manufacturing sector, of employment at both the herder and the manufacturing levels. According to UNIDO’s assessment, the wide range of livestock-based industries in Mongolia offers good prospects for sustained manufacturing growth.

Existing difficulties such as remoteness from more lucrative markets, high transportation costs, severe changes in weather, coupled with the phasing out of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing in 2005, as well as increased fierce competition for raw materials from abroad had an enormous negative impact on the whole economy. A great number of textile and cashmere processing firms were forced to exit the industry. Increased exports of raw wool, cashmere, leather, hides and skins have resulted in the lack of necessary raw materials and a further plunge in the utilisation capacity of livestock-based processing industries. About 60% of companies went out of business due to the outflow of raw materials compared to 2003.

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Environmental Concerns

Ensuring sustainable and coherent national development is the cornerstone of development objectives of the Government of Mongolia. Unbalanced growth of exports of raw cashmere led to inequitable growth of goat heads that already surpass the sustainability by Mongolia’s pasture lands, which causes extensive environmental damage and desertification (Sengelmaa Dashnyam, 2007). Of the total area of 11,483,000 hectares affected by degradation, 10,586,000 was pasture land. The size of Mongolia’s pasture land decreased by 943,000 hectares (or by 8.2%) from 11,529,000 hectares to 10,586,000 hectares during the period between 2003 and 2005. Continuation of this trend could lead to devastating environmental damages. Therefore, the Government considers it vitally important to regulate the growth of goat heads.

Justification

In the beginning of the 1990s, when Mongolia had decided to pursue a market-based economy, there was only one producer (Gobi, formerly a state-owned enterprise); the rest were established after the 1990s. GATT Article XVIII provides an avenue for Governments to resort to assistance measures if indispensable for a particular industry. Article XVIII: 22 stipulates that “a contracting party, the economy of which is in the process of development” may introduce a particular measure “in respect of the establishment of a particular industry and apply to the CONTRACTING PARTIES for approval of such measure”.

Mongolia is a developing country in transition from a centrally-planned economy to a market-based economy. The economy of the country started to stabilise since the early 2000s, and is currently at the stage of consolidating its economic growth. In order to ensure equitable economic growth, the Government considers it necessary to assist particular industries in order to promote investment and improve domestic supply capacities. Industries in Mongolia are still at the early stages of their development, given the fact that all industries had virtually collapsed in the beginning of the 1990s, the early years of the transition to a market-based economy. It was only since 2000 that manufacturing started to slowly revive showing a growth of 6.1% over 1999. Article XX: b of GATT allows adoption of measures “necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health” (see ‘Environmental Concerns’ above).

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Figure 3.4.3. Unbalanced Increase of Number of Goats

Mongolia was not an original member of the WTO, so it did not benefit from the exemption from the export subsidy prohibition granted to developing countries with per capita GDP of less than USD1000 (WTO ASCM, Article27:2(a) and Annex VII), nor was the seven-year grace period for the phase-out of such subsidies available to economies in transition (WTO ASCM, Article 29s). It also failed to enjoy the transitional periods accorded to original members for the TRIPS and the TRIMs Agreements.

Ulaanbaatar Declaration (http://www.global-event.mn)

It is interesting to study the Ulaanbaatar Declaration in this context. The Declaration adopted at the Meeting of Trade Ministers of LLDCs states:

Members shall continue to work on the relationship between the TRIPS Agreement and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Within this framework, patent applicants shall be required to disclose the source and/or the country of origin of the genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge used in their invention; to obtain prior informed consent; to share the benefits of these inventions; and to provide evidence that the patent applicants have adhered to these requirements WTO-LLDC Members shall continue to assist LLDCs who are in the process of accession to the WTO. To this end, WTO-LLDC Members shall participate in the working parties of acceding LLDCs and advocate fair treatment regarding commitments to be made by the latter. These commitments should be commensurate with their level of development. Acceding LLDCs should notably not be expected to provide WTO-plus commitments, including in TRIPS protection. They should enjoy additional flexibilities that may be necessary for implementing policies directed toward human capital formation and for developing national

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capacities for technological learning and innovation. All provisions on S&DT reflected in the GATT and all WTO Agreements shall be granted to all acceding LLDCs.

References

Correa, Carlos M. 2000. Intellectual property rights, the WTO and developing countries. The TRIPS agreement and policy options. Penang, Malaysia: Zed Books, Third World Network.

,ESCAP/WTO ARTNeT. 2010. Climate change: The science and vulnerabilities. ESCAP/WTO ARTNeT Capacity‐Building Workshop for Trade Research, in Collaboration with National University of Lao, 21‐25 June, 2010, Vientiane, Lao PDR

Govt of Mongolia, UNDP, UNCTAD and the Mission of Paraguay in Geneva. 2007. Trade, trade facilitation and transit transport issues for landlocked developing countries. Ulaanbaatar.

IPCC. (2007a). Figure SPM.5.

IPCC. (2007f), Table SPM.4.

IPCC. 2007. Climate change – 2007. Working Group II: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, IPCC fourth assessment report on climate change.

Mattoo, Aaditya, Subramanian, Arvind, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, and He, Jianwu. 2009. Reconciling climate change and trade policy. Working Paper series.

MARCC. 2009. Mongolia: Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009, Ulaanbaatar, 2010.

MTN.GNS/W/12

Rodrik. 2001. Reality check, aid for trade, the reality of aid. An independent review of poverty reduction and development assistance. IBON International.

Sengelmaa Dashnyam. 2007. NCO. trade and human development project, UNDP, MoFAT, March 2007.

Ulaanbaatar Declaration. 2007. Meeting of Trade Ministers of LLDCs, held in Ulaanbaatar, 28-29 August, 2007.

UNDP. 2003. Human Development Report, Mongolia.

UNDP. 2007. Employment and poverty in Mongolia. Mongolian Human Development Report.

UNDP. 2009. Trade policy and human development in Mongolia. A way forward after a decade in the WTO.

UNESCAP. 2009. Environmental impacts of services trade liberalization. WTO/ESCAP 6th ARTNet Capacity Building Workshop on Trade Research, Mia Mikic, Trade Policy Section, Trade and Investment Division.

WTO-UNEP. 2009. Trade and climate change.

WTO. 2007. Trade policy profile.

WTO ASCM, Article 29s.

WTO ASCM, Article27:2(a) and Annex VII.

http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news07_e/good_counc_9july07_e.htm

http://www.global-event.mn

http://www.global-event.mn/index.php?pid=18

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Opportunities for Synergies between Climate Change, Desertification, Conservation, and Human Developmentat Multiple Scales Chuluun Togtokh, Ph.D.

Department of Environmental Policy and Science, Mongolian Development Institute

Office of the President of Mongolia & Mongolian Academy of Sciences;

Environmental RS/GIS Laboratory, National University of Mongolia;

Dryland Sustainability Institute, Mongolia. E-mail: chuluun@warnercnr.colostate.edu

Abstract Uncoordinated responses to economic growth, human development and nature conservation have resulted in slow progress on sustainable development. Nature conservation actions often exclude human well-being, and human development index (HDI) omits environmental impacts, as will be illustrated with a proposed human sustainable development index “HSDI”, which incorporates carbon footprint. Holistic scenarios which deliver ecologically and socially “win-win” outcomes need to have a high priority in climate change adaptation agendas at community, river basin, regional and country scales. We present proposals for a sustainable transformation of pastoral communities in the Gobi region, which encompass the introduction of modern technologies such as renewable energy and communication, information technology, ecological and cultural tourism, all of which could strengthen natural, cultural and social capital. A paradigm shift is necessary at every scale in order to avoid crossing planetary boundaries.

Key words: Human sustainable development index, synergy between sustainable development and climate change adaptation

(This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Climate, Sustainability and Development in semiarid regions – ICID, August 16-20, 2010, Fortaleza, Brazil).

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Introduction

Integration of social, cultural, economic, and environmental factors is essential for long-term (sustainable) use of Mongolia’s resources. The world is currently in IPCC scenario A1, whereas, to live sustainably on this planet, we should be in scenario B1 or B2 (IPCC, 2007). The UN conventions on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification are intimately interlinked; however, they are often addressed separately and without much success.

Mongolia opened its borders to the world in 1990, and chose to pursue an open market economy and a democratic political system. We have been successful in growing economically and advancing as a democracy. However, environmental and social problems are undermining these advances. Air pollution in Ulaanbaatar, rangeland degradation, water resource reduction, biodiversity loss, and poverty has increased since the transition to democracy and a market economy. Mongolia’s government adopted the Mongolian Agenda 21 (1999) and the Millennium Development Goals (2008). From these, Mongolia has developed a Comprehensive National Development Strategy. Subsequently we have adopted a new program to combat desertification in Mongolia (2010) and are developing a new climate change adaptation strategy. This demonstrates that Mongolia is responding to the international call to integrate environment and development, but we realise that to succeed we need to develop synergy between the social, cultural, economic, and environmental sectors.

Mongolia still retains the classic colonial economic structure, exporting copper, gold and cashmere, mainly to China. Mongolia is very sensitive to economic and climatic perturbations. World market prices of oil, copper, gold and cashmere are main dictators of the Mongolian economy. Air pollution in Ulaanbaatar, overgrazing near water sources and settled areas, and toxic chemicals in water and soils due to mining are causing environmental degradation and depletion. Climate change impact, depleting natural resources, is making pastoral systems even more vulnerable. Livestock density increase beyond the decreasing carrying capacity due to climate change, and water sources decrease are interacting and leading to collapse of pastoral systems in central and western parts of Mongolia. Unemployment, poverty and corruption in addition to environmental degradation and the negative impacts of climate change are amplifying factors for the collapse of Mongolia as a social-ecological complex system. “Brain-drain” from Mongolia to other countries and from rural to urban areas is another “deserting” factor for human capital. In other words, “desertification” of social-ecological complex system is happening with the “brain drain”. We need to be aware that all these small collapses may interact in a non-linear way and bring catastrophic failures for Mongolia.

The objective of this paper is to propose strategies to initiate this development at community, regional, national, and global scales. The pastoral community is embedded in the Gobi, which is embedded in Mongolia, which is embedded in the Earth system, demonstrating that they are all interlinked. I am proposing that at the global scale, the UNDP incorporates into its Human Development Index (HDI) a new “green” parameter that addresses the environmental dimension by incorporating the carbon footprint of the community under study. This new Green HDI can be applied at community, regional, national, and global scales.

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Pastoral Community

Adaptation of pastoral communities to climate change

The Mongolian nomadic pastoral culture developed as an emergent feature of the variable ecosystem dynamics of the arid and semi-arid systems (Chuluun 2000, Fernandez-Gimenez 2006). These pastoral systems have adapted to variable environmental conditions responding to variation in resource availability. The emergence of hierarchical pastoral networks or cooperative groups based on common location of grazing or family relationships, as a complex adaptive system, increased the resilience of these systems to climate variability.

The Mongolian nomadic pastoral system exhibits oscillatory movements in regions where the climate and rangeland production dynamics are relatively more predictable, and can accommodate the need to move only between summer and winter camps. The forest steppe areas are typical of this oscillatory pastoral movement. More frequent seasonal oscillatory movements with more than one movement during the summer season occur in the mountain steppe regions. In regions with relatively higher climate variability and increased uncertainty, such as the Gobi and dry steppe, pastoral movements tend to be more chaotic and follow more opportunistic strategies to secure forage. These movements are associated with drier parts of the steppe and the Gobi desert-steppe and desert areas where non-equilibrium ecosystem dynamics are observed (Ellis and Chuluun 1993, Fernandez-Gimenez 1999, Chuluun 2000 and Bedunah and Schmidt 2004). A loss of mobility leads to both rangeland degradation and reduced pastoral risk management.

Livestock number increased up to 43.1 million in 2009. The number of goats, which are considered the most harmful for rangeland degradation, increased up to 19.4 million, thus making 46.1% of the livestock composition. Traditionally, the share of goats was about 20% in the total livestock composition and herders tended to keep the goat/sheep ratio as 1:3. However, this tradition was broken since transition to a market economy since 1990. Livestock sector is an important sector in Mongolia, providing about 40% of the labor and producing 20.6% of the GDP. However, rural poverty is high compared to urban: 43.4% of rural people are leaving below the poverty line (Table 1). Reasons for this poverty gap between urban and rural population are lack of employment opportunities, lack of energy supply, no markets for products sale and services, low infrastructure development such as roads and communication, and lack of information.

Livestock density exceeds the carrying capacity in central Mongolia. The herders’ economic well-being has generally improved with increased livestock numbers. Due to a rise in the price of cashmere, goat numbers have tripled since 1990. Water and foraging sources are becoming depleted due to climate change in central Mongolia and the depletion has been amplified due to increasing land use intensity. Herders complain that goats further ecosystem degradation because they dig out the roots of young plants in the spring. Plant species composition is shifting with a decreasing number of edible plant species. Plant biomass may have already been reduced in non-linear fashion due to the interaction between climate change and overgrazing in central Mongolia. Spring drying trends have delayed the onset of plant growth in Gobi-dry steppe boundary area (Ellis et al. 2002) and plant biomass decreased in central Mongolia during the

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1990s, primarily due to climate change (Ojima et al. 2004). Observations of grassland ecosystem conditions in Inner Mongolia, China and in Ovorhangai Aimag taken in 2002 and 2007 indicate that central Mongolia may be headed towards ecosystem degradation and desertification problems of the type already experienced in Inner Mongolia.

In the central Mongolia study sites, disappearance of small streams, lakes and springs was also observed (Chuluun 2008). Decreases in snowfall, increased tree cutting, the melting of permafrost, intensifying drying trends, destruction of riparian zone shrubs and swamps, and overgrazing all interacted in a non-linear way, resulting in the disappearance of water sources. Regional climate may be affected due to the albedo change that comes with land and snow cover changes. Last summer, large floods in Hujirt sum territory due to both heavy rainstorms and drought conditions were observed. Riparian ecosystems appear to have keystone value in coupled pastoral social-ecological systems. The collapse of these critical ecosystems’ ability to provide water would greatly impact the pastoral community, as water is the most valuable resource for both people and animals in drylands.

The complexities of coupled social-ecological systems increased with Mongolia’s transition to a market economy and there are three general categories of herders and communities that are affected to different degrees. A wealthy class of herders with more than 500 livestock per household is emerging, making up only about 5% of herder households. A middle class with 200-500 livestock per household now makes up almost 20% of all herder households, and this group of herders has more choices to increase their resilience and adaptive capacity. Herders with less than 200 animals per household will have the advantage if they join formal herders’ groups such as NGOs or informal traditional networks, as a well-organised cooperation will provide opportunities for economic, social, ecological, technological and cultural benefits. More than half of herders are considered poor with less than 100 animals per household. The poorer herders typically live near the cities, and along the rivers, and the link between environmental degradation and poverty is notable among this group. Some would benefit from re-training and the institution of sustainable farming systems with the introduction of productive livestock breeds and the diversification of their economy to include pigs, chickens and vegetables as sources of income.

Climate change adaptation options for cultural landscape restoration suggested in participatory community workshops included the introduction of community-based conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, the addition and protection of water points for additional pastureland, the agreement between neighbouring sums for communal use of otor and reserve pastures, and the enlargement of administrative-territorial units, for instance, by combining several sums into one unit in order to restore cultural landscapes. For pastoral communities living in the riparian zones, diversification of the economy and intensification of the livestock industry through ecotourism and farming, the prevention of riparian ecosystems from degradation and desertification and taking animals to otor pastureland during the summer period were suggested options. Protection of springs from degradation by livestock was critical for communities living in the mountain and forest steppe. Research findings and thoughts for future adaptation strategies for pastoral social-ecological systems can be summarised in the diagram of various scenarios below (Figure 3.5.1, Chuluun 2008):

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Figure 3.5.1. Scenarios of Pastoral Social-ecological Systems

Traditional system: Cooperation within traditional pastoral networks served as a mechanism enhancing resilience to climatic disasters. Communal disaster relief mechanisms, assisting the most affected herders in many different ways, were in place. Traditional pastoral communities used cultural landscapes to cope with climate variability and climatic extremes. Due to proper management, rangeland ecosystems used for traditional grazing and ecosystem services were in good condition.

Tragedy of the commons: The rangelands are still state-owned in Mongolia although livestock has been privatized. This has been the main reason for increased overgrazing and ecosystem degradation near settlements and water sources under capitalism. Poor herders especially have tended to become less mobile, living near towns, infrastructures and water sources, thereby causing dryland fragmentation. Generally, herders have not cooperated and have competed more for resources in this scenario. Many herders in this model have lost their traditional resilience mechanisms to cope with climate variability and extremes, and potentially 50% of herders live in poverty. Deterioration of the social-ecological system with ecosystem degradation and increasing poverty happens in this model.

“Western models”: Only 5%-10% of herders became wealthier through the transition to a market economy. Generally, these rich herders don’t cooperate with a larger pastoral community. They often take advantage of the current State ownership of pasture, often causing more damage to ecosystem services. Some of herders have small communities and use traditional cultural landscapes. Thus, some of the traditional networks that use cultural landscapes in sustainable ways can be included in the win-win model, with social and ecological benefits. This group of

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herders needs to be encouraged through proper pasture and cultural landscape ownership mechanisms.

Win-Win model: In the Win-Win scenario, the majority of herders must be transformed. The most desirable pathway for pastoral systems would be direct transformation from a traditional system to a win-win state, strengthening traditional pastoral communities with modern technologies such as renewable energy and communication information technology. High levels of literacy among the Mongolian herders (98%) and the suitability of the nomadic culture in concert with wireless communication make such a sustainable transformation very attractive. There is a great opportunity to conserve natural, cultural and social capital in order to maintain the adaptive capacity and resilience of Mongolian pastoral social-ecological systems to climate change and globalization. Teaching sustainable farming techniques to herders living near settlements and water points would be another pathway to reach a win-win situation and escape the tragedy of the commons state. A reform of administrative-territorial divisions that restores cultural landscapes appears to be the best, most cost-effective adaptation option in order to promote the sustainability of coupled social-ecological systems with increased adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change at supra-pastoral community scales.

To sum up, pastoral land systems in central Mongolia are very vulnerable to climate change. Water and forage availability is changing due to global warming. Land use change, especially since Mongolia’s transition to a market economy in 1990, has become a critical factor in the vulnerability of pastoral social-ecological systems. The traditional coping mechanisms enhancing the resilience of pastoral communities in the face of climate variability will be lost in Mongolia as in the surrounding countries of Central Asia, China and Russia unless alternative development agendas are taken. The opportunity of using the existing cultural landscape at community and cross-administrative boundary scales in Mongolia appears to be the most cost-effective resilience option for climate change adaptation in pastoral communities. Many international projects on pastoral development, poverty reduction or nature conservation in the Mongolia often consider parts of the problem. More holistic approaches are needed to achieve win-win scenarios. Strengthening traditional pastoral networks with modern technologies to enhance social wellbeing as well as legal framework development for cultural landscapes at community and administrative unit scales for ecosystem service conservation are required to promote sustainability in pastoral social-ecological systems.

Application of the DDP for the River Basin Human-environmental Systems in Mongolia

The Dryland Development Paradigm (DDP) (Reynolds et al. 2007) was used to analyse pastoral social-ecological systems in the Tuin river valley, located in the Southern Khangai Mountains of Mongolia. The DDP used discussions with key stakeholders, the results from which were then verified with socio-economic and climate data analysis.

The following findings, related to the 5 DDP principles, emerged from local key stakeholders’ opinion and data analysis:

DDP1: The dynamics of this coupled human-environment system are defined primarily by climatic extremes such as drought and zud (severe cold) (Figure 2). DDP2: Climate change has

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become a critical slow variable: temperature has increased by more than 2 degree Centigrade since 1940 in our study site (Figure 3). Global warming is increasing social-ecological vulnerability by gradually decreasing water and forage resources. DDP3: This water resource decrease has already passed a threshold – only 3 rivers out of 25 (based on a 1969 map) are flowing into the Tuin River today. DDP4: Key stakeholders concluded that “global regulation is the most critical”. DDP5: Traditional knowledge for adaptation to climate variability and extremes is still valuable. However, an up-to-date understanding, including knowledge on climate change (trends, variability and extreme events), and its impact on social-ecological vulnerability, is vital to the management and policy development of these pastoral systems.

Figure 3.5.2. Livestock Dynamics in Bayanhongor aimag

Figure 3.5.3. Annual Temperature in Bayanhongor

Livestock numbers have become more dynamic during the last two decades (Figure 2). In 2009-2010, herders experienced summer drought and winter zud disasters, resulting in the loss of 300,000 livestock in Bayanhongor aimag (Statistical office of Bayankhongor aimag). Intensive warming (Figure 3) has coincided with the transition to a market economy in the last two decades; both climatic and market factors contributed to rangeland degradation. All these research findings have been used in the Tuin river basin sustainable management draft plan, developed in collaboration with the Tuin River Basin Council.

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Good example of disaster management during the 2009-2010 zud:

Young herder “national champion” Narmandah (Ulziit sum, Bayanhongor aimag) overcame 2009-2010 zud with the following steps:

• Mobility: Eight movements including “otor” and seasonal pastures; • 40% of the total animals were killed in the fall but the meat was sold in the spring when

there was more demand. • He made and bought hay and fodder when their prices were cheap. • He re-stocked animals and employed two poor household helps and trained them in

pastoral management and technologies acquired from his grandfather.

Narmandah is 31-year-old who graduated from a high school. He lives in Nuramt Har of Olziit sum of Bayanhongor aimag (in the boundary area of dry steppe and desert-steppe). From the age of six to 18, he lived with his grandfather, learning traditional pastoral management system. Thus he has 20 years of experience of herding. He keeps good contacts with his relatives, living in the same area (Fig.). However, he has to move far from them because of big number of livestock and carrying capacity of pastures.

The household has over 70 horses, about 30 cattle, 250 sheep, and over 2,000 goats. His annual income is 24 million togrog. His wife is a hard-working woman who milks 180 goats every day, makes curd and cheese, and sells at the Bayanhongor center. They make more income through the sale of their dairy products in summer, instead of keeping for the fall and winter.

Movement pattern: He moves 8-10 times during a year, and moves for otor pasture for 20-80 km. He plans his moving place and duration well because he has good knowledge of plants, specifically about their quality, phenology, and suitability for livestock. For instance, he thinks that grazing in the same rangelands longer than one month during growing season is the main reason of overgrazing and land degradation. That’s why he doesn’t stay at otor longer than one month. It is important to know what plants are good during what time of the year in order to gain weight and increase livestock productivity. For example, grazing of sheep and goats in fall pasture with budargana (Salsola sp. and Reaumurea sp.) and wild onion (Allium sp.), located in the desert-steppe zones, is critical for gaining weight and fat for winter survival.

Five Principles for Pastoral Resilience to Climate Livelihood in Mongolia

1. Building of resilient and learning community:

Traditional pastoral communities self-organised in a resource-scarce environment and evolved to increase their capacity to cope with climate variability and extremes hold the key to sustainable development. Global warming, market economy, human population increase, and globalization are driving factors of change in pastoral communities in Mongolia. Therefore, learning to adapt to newly emerged situations becomes the key for sustainable livelihoods. Cooperation rather than competition is still critical when a majority of the herders are poor, owning less than 200 livestock.

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Education and training to improve herders’ ability adapt in new settings are essential for their sustainability. A combination of modern scientific and local knowledge for pastoral risk management is essential for building a resilient community. Training of pastoral community leaders for building adaptive communities is one of the ways to reach this goal. It can be reached through focused support of the best adapted communities. The building process of prime-model resilient communities may be advertised through continuous broadcasting as multi-serial movies. May be, even contest of the best learning communities can be broadcasted.

These communities could improve not only their pastoral risk management, but also adapt to market conditions, increasing animal productivity and developing joint enterprises to produce value-added livestock products.

Key resources for pastoral social-ecological systems appear to be water systems and their surrounding riparian ecosystems. Safe drinking water is essential for human and animal health. Aquatic and riparian ecosystem’s service to deliver clean water was undervalued, and was often taken for granted. Therefore, strengthening of “one water” (like river, lake, spring and well) based communities must have high preference. It would be good to identify key “one river communities” for further development. For example “Ogoomor Ortomt river community” can be considered as key “one river community” within the Tuin river community because the Ortomt River is one of the three remaining tributary rivers flowing into the Tuin River.

Native land councils, informal society of people from the same aimag or sum, but living in Ulaanbaatar city, can be used effectively to improve pastoral risk management. They not only can assist during the disaster period, they could organise exhibitions to buy livestock products such as meat, milk products etc.

2. Application and selection of diversity of institutions of pastoral systems to capture diversity of economic and ecological settings:

Diversity of pastoral institutions, which may depend on natural ecological zones, climate change impact on rangelands, remoteness from the markets, would be like insurance to manage uncertainty. For example, traditional institutions could be the best institution for pastoral risk management in remote and low-human density arid lands of the Gov’ and dry steppe. Traditional communities could own their pastures. Traditional knowledge, informal norms and customs for livestock, pasture and risk management were valuable mechanisms for sustainability of pastoral communities. The rural school program could include teaching of the traditional knowledge or local governments could organise summer schools to teach modern and traditional rangeland management practices. The school children could visit local experienced herders and learn on ground. Spare-time education idea (Pers. comm. with Mickey Glantz 2010) has great potential for application in the conditions of Mongolia. We also need to form a legal framework to support all kinds community-based activities, including pastoral risk management.

Governance capacity for pastoral risk management can be improved at community, local and state levels: Improvement of leadership skills for pastoral risk management at all levels is critical.

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For instance, Erdene sum of Tov aimag has “ice storage”, which wasn’t used during this winter. Another bad example would be the Mongolian Government’s irresponsibility, in preparing twice as less fodder compared to previous years, and also preparing 2,500 tonnes of meat relative to 7,000 tonnes of meat last year. The Government should build livestock raw materials (meat, cashmere etc.) processing industry in order to export value-added products. Diversification of products of pastoral systems, supporting small and medium enterprises to produce dried meat and milk products at community, bag or sum levels, and ecological and cultural tourism development are key economic activities for the Mongolian communities, making them resilient to external, natural and social shocks.

3. Sustaining ecosystem services: The millennium ecosystem assessment (MEA 2004) highlighted links between ecosystem services and human well-being. Especially, drylands were of big concern due to the growing population despite low economic and ecological productivity. We need to re-evaluate ecosystem services (at least, basic ones such clean water and forage for pastoral systems) and protection of key ecosystem services to achieve sustainability. We have to be aware about our actions not to be mal-adaptive from a climate change point of view. Actions without proper knowledge of climate change impact and vulnerability may be unsustainable. Long-term sustainability has to be tested against climate change impact and vulnerability. Climate change adaption actions must be integrated into sustainable livelihood framework in order to not repeat past mistakes.

4. Enhancing social-ecological resilience: We need to improve robustness, adaptability and transformability of pastoral social-ecological systems. Social-ecological resilience of pastoral systems is critical not only for the conservation of natural and social capitals, but for recovery after shocks, and even more important for renewal. We may fail if we don’t select a holistic option. “Win-Win” both socio-economically and ecologically could serve as selection criteria for actions. We need not only conserve ecosystem services for human well-being, we must deliver human services for ecosystem health as well.

5. Introduction of innovation, science and technology: One of the lessons learnt is insufficient application of modern scientific knowledge and innovation opportunities for sustainable development projects. For instance, the Dryland Development Paradigm (Reynolds et al. 2007) and a new paradigm for people, ecosystems and development (Mortimore 2009) can provide excellent framework for sustainable livelihood actions. We have to recognise that transformation of social-ecological systems is often the way we should approach transformation of traditional communities. We can list a few examples:

• Fully explore distance learning opportunities (spare-time education);

• Introduce modern scientific achievements to increase animal productivity and adaptive capacity such as artificial insemination, genetic engineering, etc.

• To apply broadly wind generator wells (like in the US);

• To introduce modern animal identification system;

• To introduce mobile meat and dairy product processing technology.

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The Gobi Region of Mongolia as the World Cultural and Natural Heritage Site

We are proposing the Gobi as both cultural and natural heritage of the World.

Why the Gobi region as a World Cultural Heritage Site?

• Nomadic culture is being lost everywhere in Central Asia. The Gobi is a place where nomadic culture continues;

• Nomadic culture emerged as a human adaptation to climate variability in the Gobi region, which has arid-lands with non-equilibrium dynamics;

• The nomadic pastoralism is a “globally significant agricultural heritage system” (FAO);

• Social resilience still exists in the Gobi.

Why the Gobi region is the World Natural Heritage Site?

• Diversity of landscapes and biodiversity is still intact;

• Conservation of large-scale ecosystems is critical in the face of climate change

Nomadic culture in Central Asia is a unique human adaptation for variable environment, temporally in climate and spatially in landscapes. However, nomadic culture (civilization) is still in existence in Mongolia, compared to other surrounding countries like in China, Russia and Central Asia. Rapid changes are taking place in central part of Mongolia, especially near big cities. It is likely that nomadic pastoralism in Mongolia will become more sedentary in relatively humid and arid lands like steppe and forest steppe regions as anywhere else and may disappear in future.

Nomadic culture is still conserved better in the Gov’ region compared to other ecological regions of Mongolia.

Nomadic land use system in the Gov’ is an outstanding example of human interaction with the environment. However, it is becoming vulnerable due to climate change. Therefore, large-scale conservation as taking the whole Gov’, including it in the World heritage list, is necessary to reduce risks of nomadic civilisation loss in Central Asia. In fact, conservation of nomadic land use systems will reduce vulnerability of the pastoral human-ecological systems in Gov’.

Biodiversity in the Gov’ has exceptional beauty and aesthetic importance. The Gov’ bear, snow leopard, wild camel, saiga, the argal sheep, wild goat and wild ass are examples of unique biodiversity. Natural habitats of the Gov’ bear, snow leopard, wild camel, saiga are still in existence. The Altai-Sayan Mountains is listed as one of 200 GEF-listed ecosystems in the world. The Gov’ beyond the Altai Mountains has the largest-scale national parks in the world.

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Technological transformation of the Gobi for conservation of nature and culture

• Opportunity of wireless communication technology to support nomadic culture;

• Low carbon society with use of renewal energy;

• Ecological and cultural tourism development opportunity;

• Organic food production system.

Sustainable Development Principles of Mongolia

A paradigm of sustainable development of Mongolia based on five principles was proposed (Chuluun et al. 2004):

1. Complexity: To address complex nature of open coupled social-economic-ecological-political-cultural systems of Mongolia;

2. Uniqueness: To be based on unique nature, culture, history, geographic location, and natural (especially renewal) resources;

3. Global Citizen: To educate future generations as global citizens in order to not cross planetary boundaries in the Anthropocene (the Age of Man);

4. Adaptation: To adapt to climate change, globalization and the Information Era;

5. Synergy: To ensure synergy of actions at multiple scales for sustainability.

Global warming, reduction of water and forage resources, goat number increase, human population change, renewable energy and proliferation of information communication technology may serve as critical slow variables driving pastoral social-ecological system dynamics.

Key resource and ecosystems for pastoral social-ecological systems are water and its supporting riparian and forest ecosystems. Pastoral systems are very sensitive to any change in water resources due to global warming: disappearance of water sources, reduction of water resources, delayed or early melted snow, and no snow condition. Protection of “natural green walls,” riparian ecosystems and forests are more valuable for their service to deliver water and water purification compared to building of artificial “green walls”, which do not deliver any water service.

The cumulative effect of climate change and overgrazing is more than the sum of them because of their interaction. Vulnerability to climate change is amplified due to overgrazing of rangelands, which becomes a cause for ecosystem degradation. Thus ecosystems in transitional zones between the Gobi and forests have degraded to different degrees because of interaction of climate change and overgrazing. Ecosystem degradation, leading to desertification, has the potential to reduce the well-being of herders.

A fragmentation of cultural landscapes in arid and semi-arid lands has increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacities of pastoral systems to climate change. We observed “tragedy of commons” the maximum environmental degradation in the most fragmented set of resources.

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There is some evidence of economic performance reduction with fragmentation of cultural landscapes.

Social resilience based on traditional pastoral communities tends to be lost. Herders’ groups not based on traditional pastoral communities may have a short life. On the contrary, traditional pastoral communities, which sustainably existed for centuries, are eroding.

Win-Win Model

Many projects are fragmented, aiming to achieve fragmented goals such as only conservation or poverty reduction, etc. We need to reach a win-win situation both ecologically and socially. The best transformation pathway is to strengthen traditional pastoral community-cultural landscape system with opportunities of renewal energy, wireless communication technology (further opening opportunities for distance learning and diagnosis), cultural and ecological tourism and a well-developed industry based on livestock raw materials. A restoration of cultural landscapes at multiple scales and strengthening of traditional pastoral networks with modern technologies will enhance socio-ecological resilience and reduce vulnerability of pastoral systems to climate change.

We need to build resilience and adaptation mechanisms for negative economic, climatic and ecological perturbations. Diversification of exports and economy is a proven mechanism for increased resilience of complex systems. After all, Mongolia needs to become economically independent and self-sufficient without donors’ assistance.

Budget surplus due to the world market price increase in gold and copper should be used for adding value to the development of cashmere, copper and gold industry, which will generate jobs and reduce poverty. Mobilization of human resources, especially people working abroad in their fields successfully, is a gateway for Mongolia into the globalized world. Thus, some portion of surplus could be used to bring back “the national intellectual capital” to its homeland for technological and management innovation. Renewable resources such as human resources, solar and wind energy, and even cashmere can ensure our sustainable future in the long-run, not mineral resources. We need to improve cost-benefit analysis for mining, integrating environmental and social costs.

Indeed, Mongolia has a golden opportunity to use the Oyu tolgoi and Tavan tolgoi mining resources for integration into the East Asia’s regional economy and long-term sustainability. A healthy organism has good immune system against foreign agents such as bacteria and virus. Healthy political, economic, social, environmental and cultural systems have resilience against all upheavals. Societal response and awareness of potential collapses and catastrophe in order to avoid them are the “social immune system”, which will prevent societal failures. Civil movements against corruption, green movement to protect nature and environment, and preservation of good cultural traditions are elements of a social immune system.

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Five Principles for Sustainable Development of Mongolia (Chuluun et al. 2004):

• Develop political, economic and social systems in comprehensive way, conserving natural and cultural capitals;

• Base all policies on the uniqueness of Mongolia’s culture, nature and history;

• Adapt to globalisation, including global environmental changes;

• Develop global citizen-human capital;

• Unite for development of Mongolia

Human Sustainable Development Index

The Human Development Index (HDI) has only economic and social dimensions. Therefore, I am proposing an environmental dimension be included into the HDI (Global Change Magazine 2009). Health index based on longevity seems to be good integrated indicator for measuring health. What would be a good environmental indicator as measureable as longevity for health?

Our suggestion is carbon dioxide emission per capita (Chuluun 2009) would be the best candidate for the following reasons:

• Climate change is the most urgent matter for the humanity;

• Carbon dioxide is a major contributor to the greenhouse gases;

• Carbon dioxide emission is associated with energy (production, saving, technology etc.), which is a basis of economic development;

• A ratio of GDP/CO2 can be calculated from 2 indexes (GDP/capita and CO2/capita), and dynamics of which will indicate growth direction: green or brown;

• Finally, the HSDI index will have all the three pillars of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental dimensions.

New Rank of the Countries with Human Sustainable Development Index

Human Development Index (HDI) was originally designed with the intent to calculate more than just the economic component in the development of countries in terms of GDP per capita. However, we now know this economic index is insufficient for evaluating how each country’s economic development is contributing to the social well-being of its people. Thus, education (literacy rate and school attendance by the children) and health (longevity) indexes were later incorporated into the HDI. The GDP per capita, education and health indexes make equal contributions in calculating a country’s HDI: each has a distribution between 0 and 1/3. The HDI adds these up and distributes between 0 and 1, where the highest HDI is 1.

At this stage of the human civilization, when we are all concerned about global climate change, the author would like to suggest that we further elaborate on this indicator to incorporate the environmental factor in the HDI, and use CO2 emission per capita for each country. The

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countries which use more energy efficient technologies and promote green development will have relatively better green HDI. This index will highlight global environmental responsibility of countries (especially developed countries), through factoring in each country’s impact on climate change (global warming) due to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly, CO2 emission. This integrated index will show what countries do for human development and for the global environment. In this globalized world, interdependence of people through the global commons such as our atmosphere has become enormously obvious. People in developed nations contribute to the climate change impact and vulnerability in developing countries through high greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2 emissions (a.k.a. carbon footprint). This new index was first proposed in the background paper for the “Human Development Report-2010-Mongolia” (Chuluun 2009). The new rank of the countries through the HDI (2007) was released in October 2009. The CO2 emission per capita data for each country (2005) were used from the World Bank website on World Development Indicators. The new Human Sustainable Development Index (HSDI) (Chuluun 2009) equals ¾ of the HDI and ¼ of CO2 emission per capita index, which is 1/4 for the country with lowest carbon emission and 0 for the country with the lowest carbon emission. The HSDI value varies between 0 and 1. The countries with high HDI and low CO2 per capita emission will have a high HSDI index.

The HSDI illustrates which developed countries are doing well both domestically (with high HDI) and globally (with relatively lower CO2 emission per capita, in other words with relatively less carbon footprint). Sweden jumped into the first place in the green HDI rank from the 7th place in the HDI rank, as did Switzerland --into the second place in the green HDI rank (Table 1) from the 9th place in HDI rank, and Hong Kong, China (SAR) -- into the sixth place in the green HDI rank (Table 1) from the 24th place in HDI rank. The leading nations in the green HDI rank contribute to both domestic and global equity better compared to other developed nations. Uruguay, Chile, Cuba, Latvia, Hungary, Lithuania, Costa Rica, Argentina, Croatia and Slovakia were advanced into the best 40 group countries in the new rank.

Similarly, new HSDI revealed which developed countries have high carbon footprints (with high CO2 emission per capita), although they have high HDI. The countries with the highest per capita carbon emissions, such as Qatar (60.8 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita), Kuwait (34.3 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita), United Arab Emirates (30.3 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita), Bahrain (25.4 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita), and Luxembourg (24.1 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita) dropped out of the leading 40 countries in the HDI rankings. The United States (19.6 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita) dropped into the 39th place in the green HDI rank from its 13th place in HDI rank, and Canada (16.6 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita)--into the 25th place in the green HDI rank, from the 4th place in the HDI rank. Among the top 40 emitters of carbon dioxide, Europe dominates by alternative quality-of-life index (Global Change 2009). This HSDI index needs further development, taking into account a country’s emissions due to imported goods made in countries such as in China.

Summary

Cross-scale linkages are becoming tight. The Mongolian dust, originated in the Gobi, reaches not only the East Asian countries, even the North America like in April 2002. The carbon footprint of

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the developed countries affects pastoral communities in Mongolia through global warming impact, reducing surface water and forage for pastoral human-environmental systems. Developed countries have made great advances in the communication and information technology, which could have great implications in developing countries.

The fact that humanity is following the worst IPCC scenario indicates that we need to design an innovative approach for climate change adaptation. A paradigm shift is necessary in order to avoid crossing planetary boundaries. Climate change adaptation should become a novel development mechanism, based on lessons learnt from existing or traditional pathways. Nature conservation actions often exclude humans, and human development index (HDI) omits environmental impacts. Holistic scenarios which deliver ecologically and socially “win-win” outcomes need to have a high priority in climate change adaptation agendas. Climate change adaptation actions should be more holistic, increasing social-ecological resilience and providing human development.

Mongolia is ranked in the 115th place out of 182 countries in the HDI 2007 rank (Human Development Report 2009). Therefore, a majority of herders don’t enjoy a good state of human development. Unfortunately, few herders are in the state possess both good ecological and social resilience. On the contrary, many of them are falling into the “Tragedy of Commons” or collapse state. Some herders (about 10%-15%) became wealthy with privatization of livestock. A majority of herders, especially those living in remote areas far from human settlements and main infrastructures, still have good social resilience. Many traditional pastoral communities are still using traditional cultural landscapes, which consist of four seasonal pastures and reserve pastures. Therefore, they still have good social and ecological resilience, and adaptive capacity to cope with climate variability and extreme events such as drought and zud. However, their human well-being level is not high, and global warming is acting as critical slow variable, increasing pastoral social-ecological vulnerability. Different economic-ecological regions have different degrees of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

But the good news is that we have a relatively high education index. In addition, a technological transformation is already taking place at a high speed in the Mongolian rangelands. Nowadays 129,000 herder households have solar/wind energy access out of 171,000 of herder households. 111,700 herder households have TV. And 1.7 million people out of 2.7 million have cell phones, and it has become commonplace for herders to use cell phones.

The human development or “development for people and people for development” has become top priority of our new government. However, many actions could become mal-adaptive if they are not based on climate change knowledge, reducing vulnerability to climate change and strengthening ecological and social resilience. The best adaptation strategy is to provide human development (economic growth with improved education and health services), while increasing social-ecological resilience. Introduction of environmentally friendly new technologies such as renewable energy, satellite communication technology, distance learning and diagnosis, development of enterprises to add value to animal raw materials, and ecological and cultural tourism are the ways for sustainable transformation of pastoral systems.

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Land degradation and desertification limit human freedom and opportunities for making choices. For instance, herders who lost their animals and had to migrate to the cities after the 1999-2002 drought and zud events can be considered as ecological refugees. The policy to reduce land degradation and combat desertification is a sustainable development policy to improve both social and ecological resilience. Therefore, human development should aim for strengthening human-environmental resilience, which is a basis of sustainable development. A key for this goal is to give an education, which combines modern scientific achievements and local traditional knowledge on ecology, management of natural resources, climate change and sustainable development.

Mongolia is at the cusp of its quest for sustainability. The mining sector is about to boom in the country. The largest mining resources, which Mongolia is prospecting currently, are in the Gobi. Therefore, green mining development from the beginning would be desirable. Education, health, low-carbon community development, conservation of the Gobi as the world cultural and natural heritage site, and social-ecological system-based climate change adaptation actions should serve as the mainstays of sustainable development strategy of Mongolia.

References

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Chuluun, T. 2000. Climate variability, nomadic society and turbulent history: A Mongolian case study. Update-IHDP, Newsletter of the International Human Dimensions Program on Global Environmental Change, 1: 10-12.

Chuluun, T.. Tsedendamba, L, Suhbaatar, Ts., Dagvadorj, D., Nyamtseren, L. and Enebish,T. 2004. Concept of sustainable development of Mongolia. Daily News, 117: 14 (In Mongolian).

Chuluun, T. 2008. Adaptation strategies of pastoral communities to climate change in Central mountainous region of Mongolia. Update-IHDP, Newsletter of the International Human Dimensions Program on global environmental change, 2: 53-58.

Chuluun, T and D, Ojima. (Eds). 2002. Fundamental issues affecting sustainability of the Mongolian steppe. Proceedings of the Open Symposium on Change and Sustainability of Pastoral Land Use Systems in Temperate and Central Asia, June 28-July 1, 2001, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia (pp 372) Ulaanbaatar: Interpress Publishing and Printing.

Chuluun, T. 2009. Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. Background paper for the “Human Development Report-2010-Mongolia”.

Coleen Vogel, C.Moser, Susanne, E.Kasperson, Roger, Dabelko, Geoffrey D. 2007. Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships. Global Environmental Change,17, 349-364.

Davies, M., Guenther, B., Leavy, J., Mitchell., T. and Tanner, T. 2008. Climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and social protection: Complementary roles in agriculture and rural growth? IDS Working Paper, Volume 2009, Number 320.

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Hernando De Soto. 2000. The mystery of capital: Why Capitalism triumphs in the West and fails everywhere else. Basic Books.

Mortimore, M. 2009. Dryland opportunities – A new paradigm for people, ecosystems and development. IUCN, UNDP, IIED.

Ojima, D.S., Chuluun, T. Bolortsetseg, B, Tucker, C.J. and Hicke, J. 2004. Eurasian land use impacts on rangeland productivity. In R. DeFries and G. P. Asner (Eds), Ecosystem interactions with land use change (pp293-301). American Geophysical Union. Geophysical Monograph Series. Volume 153. Washington D.C.

Ojima, D. and Chuluun, T. 2007. Policy changes in Mongolia: Implications for land use and landscapes. In Galvin, K.A., Reid, R.S., Behnke, R.H. and Hobbs, N.T. (Eds), Fragmentation in semi-arid and arid landscapes: Consequences for human and natural systems (pp179-193). Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer.

Ostrom E., et al. 2002. The drama of the commons. National Academy Press, Washington DC.

Reynolds J.F., Smith, M.S., Lambin, E.F., Turner, B. L. et al., 2007. Global desertification: Building a science for dryland development. In Science, 11 May 2007, Vol. 316. no. 5826, pp. 847–851, DOI: 10.1126/science.1131634.

Schulz. A. 2009. Land legislation and the possibilities for pastoral risk management and adaptation to climate change – the example of Mongolia. FAO project report.

Swift J.S. 2007. Institutionalizing pastoral risk management in Mongolia: Lessons learned. Case Study. FAO project.

Tortell P., Ts. Adiyasuren et al. 2008. Institutional structures for environmental management in Mongolia. UNDP project.

Turner B.L, Lambin, Eric F.and Reenberg, Anette. 2007. The emergence of Land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007, vol.104.

UNDP. 2009. Overcoming barriers: Human mobility and development. Human Development Report

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Table 1. 2009 HDI Rank of the Countries Compared with the 2009 HSDI Rank of the Countries

HDI HDI rank Country name Country name HDEI

rank Green

HDI

0.352 181 Afghanistan Afghanistan 176

0.818 70 Albania Albania 51 0.859

0.754 104 Algeria Algeria 99 0.797

0.934 28 Andorra Andorra 177

0.564 143 Angola Angola 138 0.671

0.868 47 Antigua and Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda 41 0.879

0.866 49 Argentina Argentina 37 0.882

0.798 84 Armenia Armenia 64 0.842

0.970 2 Australia Australia 29 0.897

0.955 14 Austria Austria 14 0.927

0.787 86 Azerbaijan Azerbaijan 78 0.821

0.856 52 Bahamas Bahamas 48 0.863

0.895 39 Bahrain Bahrain 96 0.801

0.543 146 Bangladesh Bangladesh 141 0.656

0.903 37 Barbados Barbados 24 0.904

0.826 68 Belarus Belarus 66 0.841

0.953 17 Belgium Belgium 16 0.921

0.772 93 Belize Belize 84 0.817

0.492 161 Benin Benin 155 0.618

0.729 132 Bhutan Bhutan 127 0.711

0.729 113 Bolivia Bolivia 102 0.792

0.812 76 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina 73 0.828

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0.694 125 Botswana Botswana 120 0.760

0.813 75 Brazil Brazil 58 0.852

0.920 30 Brunei Darussalam Brunei Darussalam 46 0.870

0.840 61 Bulgaria Bulgaria 54 0.855

0.389 177 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 171 0.542

0.394 174 Burundi Burundi 168 0.545

0.593 137 Cambodia Cambodia 131 0.695

0.523 153 Cameroon Cameroon 148 0.641

0.966 4 Canada Canada 25 0.901

0.708 121 Cape Verde Cape Verde 109 0.778

0.369 179 Central African Republic Central African Republic 173 0.527

0.392 175 Chad Chad 169 0.544

0.878 44 Chile Chile 31 0.891

0.772 92 China China 89 0.810

0.807 77 Colombia Colombia 60 0.849

0.576 139 Comoros Comoros 134 0.681

0.601 136 Congo Congo 130 0.698

0.389 176 Congo (Democratic Republic

of the) Congo (Democratic Republic of the) 170 0.542

0.854 54 Costa Rica Costa Rica 36 0.883

0.484 163 Cote d'Ivoire Cote d'Ivoire 157 0.611

0.871 45 Croatia Croatia 38 0.880

0.863 51 Cuba Cuba 32 0.888

0.914 32 Cyprus Cyprus 28 0.898

0.903 36 Czech Republic Czech Republic 42 0.875

0.955 16 Denmark Denmark 11 0.928

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0.520 155 Djibouti Djibouti 149 0.638

0.814 73 Dominica Dominica 55 0.854

0.777 90 Dominican Republic Dominican Republic 75 0.824

0.806 80 Ecuador Ecuador 62 0.845

0.703 123 Egypt Egypt 116 0.767

0.747 106 El Salvador El Salvador 95 0.806

0.719 118 Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea 122 0.758

0.472 165 Eritrea Eritrea 159 0.603

0.883 40 Estonia Estonia 57 0.852

0.414 171 Ethiopia Ethiopia 165 0.560

0.741 108 Fiji Fiji 98 0.797

0.959 12 Finland Finland 15 0.924

0.961 8 France France 4 0.943

0.755 103 Gabon Gabon 87 0.811

0.456 168 Gambia Gambia 162 0.591

0.778 89 Georgia Georgia 72 0.829

0.947 22 Germany Germany 19 0.918

0.526 152 Ghana Ghana 147 0.643

0.942 25 Greece Greece 18 0.918

0.813 74 Grenada Grenada 59 0.850

0.704 122 Guatemala Guatemala 111 0.774

0.435 170 Guinea Guinea 164 0.576

0.396 173 Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau 167 0.546

0.729 114 Guyana Guyana 106 0.788

0.532 149 Haiti Haiti 144 0.648

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0.732 112 Honduras Honduras 100 0.794

0.944 24 Hong Kong, China (SAR) Hong Kong, China (SAR) 6 0.933

0.879 43 Hungary Hungary 34 0.884

0.969 3 Iceland Iceland 3 0.944

0.612 134 India India 129 0.703

0.734 111 Indonesia Indonesia 103 0.792

0.782 88 Iran (Islamic Republic of) Iran (Islamic Republic of) 93 0.808

0.965 5 Ireland Ireland 10 0.929

0.935 27 Israel Israel 22 0.911

0.951 18 Italy Italy 9 0.929

0.766 100 Jamaica Jamaica 92 0.808

0.960 10 Japan Japan 13 0.927

0.770 96 Jordan Jordan 88 0.811

0.804 82 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan 97 0.800

0.541 147 Kenya Kenya 142 0.654

0.937 26 Korea (Republic of) Korea (Republic of) 21 0.911

0.916 31 Kuwait Kuwait 112 0.773

0.710 120 Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan 110 0.778

0.619 133 Lao People's Democratic

Republic Lao People's Democratic Republic 126 0.713

0.866 48 Latvia Latvia 33 0.887

0.803 83 Lebanon Lebanon 69 0.834

0.514 156 Lesotho Lesotho 178

0.442 169 Liberia Liberia 163 0.581

0.847 55 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 63 0.843

0.951 19 Liechtenstein Liechtenstein 179

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0.870 46 Lithuania Lithuania 35 0.884

0.960 11 Luxembourg Luxembourg 49 0.862

0.817 72 Macedonia (the Former

Yugoslav Rep. of) Macedonia (the Former Yugoslav Rep. of) 67 0.840

0.543 145 Madagascar Madagascar 140 0.657

0.493 160 Malawi Malawi 154 0.619

0.829 66 Malaysia Malaysia 71 0.830

0.771 95 Maldives Maldives 81 0.818

0.371 178 Mali Mali 172 0.528

0.902 38 Malta Malta 27 0.898

0.520 154 Mauritania Mauritania 150 0.638

0.804 81 Mauritius Mauritius 65 0.841

0.854 53 Mexico Mexico 44 0.872

0.720 117 Moldova Moldova 107 0.781

0.727 115 Mongolia Mongolia 108 0.780

0.834 65 Montenegro Montenegro 180

0.654 130 Morocco Morocco 124 0.733

0.402 172 Mozambique Mozambique 166 0.551

0.586 138 Myanmar Myanmar 132 0.689

0.686 128 Namibia Namibia 121 0.759

0.553 144 Nepal Nepal 139 0.664

0.964 6 Netherlands Netherlands 5 0.939

0.950 20 New Zealand New Zealand 8 0.930

0.699 124 Nicaragua Nicaragua 113 0.771

0.340 182 Niger Niger 175 0.505

0.511 158 Nigeria Nigeria 152 0.630

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0.971 1 Norway Norway 12 0.927

0.737 110 Occupied Palestinian

Territories Occupied Palestinian Territories

0.846 56 Oman Oman 70 0.831

0.572 141 Pakistan Pakistan 137 0.675

0.840 60 Panama Panama 45 0.872

0.541 148 Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea 143 0.653

0.761 101 Paraguay Paraguay 80 0.818

0.806 78 Peru Peru 61 0.849

0.751 105 Philippines Philippines 90 0.809

0.880 41 Poland Poland 43 0.875

0.909 34 Portugal Portugal 23 0.906

0.910 33 Qatar Qatar 133 0.682

0.837 63 Romania Romania 50 0.860

0.817 71 Russian Federation Russian Federation 86 0.816

0.460 167 Rwanda Rwanda 161 0.595

0.838 62 Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Kitts and Nevis 47 0.866

0.821 69 Saint Lucia Saint Lucia 53 0.856

0.772 91 Saint Vincent and the

Grenadines Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 76 0.821

0.771 94 Samoa Samoa 74 0.825

0.651 131 Sao Tome and Principe Sao Tome and Principe 123 0.735

0.843 59 Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 91 0.809

0.464 166 Senegal Senegal 160 0.596

0.826 67 Serbia Serbia 181

0.845 57 Seychelles Seychelles 56 0.853

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0.365 180 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 174 0.523

0.944 23 Singapore Singapore 26 0.899

0.880 42 Slovakia Slovakia 40 0.880

0.929 29 Slovenia Slovenia 20 0.914

0.610 135 Solomon Islands Solomon Islands 128 0.706

0.683 129 South Africa South Africa 125 0.724

0.955 15 Spain Spain 7 0.931

0.759 102 Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 83 0.817

0.531 150 Sudan Sudan 145 0.647

0.769 97 Suriname Suriname 94 0.806

0.572 142 Swaziland Swaziland 136 0.675

0.963 7 Sweden Sweden 1 0.948

0.960 9 Switzerland Switzerland 2 0.945

0.742 107 Syrian Arab Republic Syrian Arab Republic 104 0.791

0.688 127 Tajikistan Tajikistan 119 0.763

0.530 151 Tanzania (United Republic

of) Tanzania (United Republic of) 146 0.647

0.783 87 Thailand Thailand 79 0.819

0.489 162 Timor-Leste Timor-Leste 156 0.616

0.499 159 Togo Togo 153 0.623

0.768 99 Tonga Tonga 77 0.821

0.837 64 Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago 114 0.768

0.769 98 Tunisia Tunisia 82 0.817

0.806 79 Turkey Turkey 68 0.839

0.739 109 Turkmenistan Turkmenistan 117 0.766

0.514 157 Uganda Uganda 151 0.635

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0.796 85 Ukraine Ukraine 85 0.816

0.903 35 United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates 101 0.793

0.947 21 United Kingdom United Kingdom 17 0.920

0.956 13 United States United States 39 0.880

0.865 50 Uruguay Uruguay 30 0.891

0.710 119 Uzbekistan Uzbekistan 118 0.763

0.693 126 Vanuatu Vanuatu 115 0.768

0.844 58 Venezuela (Bolivarian

Republic of) Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 52 0.858

0.725 116 Viet Nam Viet Nam 105 0.788

0.575 140 Yemen Yemen 135 0.677

0.481 164 Zambia Zambia 158 0.610

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4. Summary

Final Session Summary: Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development Mahesh Pradhan

Deputy Director, United Nations Environment Program Regional Resource Center for Asia and the Pacific

Email: Mahesh.Pradhan@rrcap.unep.org

Final discussions of the consultative workshop focused around three key issues:

• Institutional: What is necessary for different stakeholders for better coordination?

• Capacity: How to deliver these needs?

• Knowledge: Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge at the national level

Interventions by participants covered the following points, taking into account the urgency of adaptation issues as well as the ongoing National Adaptation Strategy formulation process in Mongolia:

Institutional:

• Need for greater coordination between researchers and policy makers;

• Need for a cross-sectored committee to facilitate coordination;

• Establishment of a Green Development Institute, based at the Mongolian Development Institute to be recommended to the President by his Advisor. This could serve as a national hub on climate change adaptation, bringing together key stakeholders;

• Discussions on whether an integrated structure would be better or should focal points be identified at relevant Ministries;

• Need for coordination with the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism (MNET), under which a Working Group on Climate Change Adaptation is functional with GTZ support

Capacity:

• Need to augment capacity to develop higher resolution climate change scenario and make it more useable for planning–both short term and long term projections, which can be carried out concurrently, in parallel. This would require enhanced capacity in Mongolia for downscaling global climate change model and data.

• Specific focus on agriculture and livestock as priority sectors for capacity building;

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• Enhanced capacity for research on socio-economic issues;

• Develop a Mongolian Ecosystem Assessment study, along the lines of the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment report;

• Focus on the impact of climate change on water resources, without which ecosystem services cannot be sustainable in Mongolia;

• Improve capacity for Ecosystems Based Adaptation;

• Specific training programs for parliamentarians and policy-makers on ‘Climate Change Adaptation’, as well as targeted training for negotiators.

Knowledge:

• Need for the establishment of a national knowledge hub on adaptation, bringing together diverse range of knowledge covering both development and environment issues;

• Need to highlight the Mongolian nomadic culture and traditional knowledge; work to get the Mongolian Gobi listed as the World Cultural and Natural Heritage Site;

• Use the knowledge base to identify sources of risk;

• Emphasise the positive side of adaptation, integrating environmental factor into the Human Development Index;

• Identify technology and policy options, based on the integrated database/knowledgebase;

• Promote a new “commons” approach, through the utilisation of less resource, leading to a change in society.

In addition, access to financing through the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network was indicated, to support the three areas of focus.

Closing remarks

Masataka Watanabe and Chuluun Togtokh

The consultation meeting on “Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development” brought together natural scientists involved in climate change, social scientists involved in development, policy makers, and representatives of international organisations. It is worth highlighting that the meeting was different from many previous meetings on climate change in Ulaanbaatar due to a larger number of participants with background in social science. Synergy of actions and programs, not repeating past mistakes, is critical for successful adaptation. Climate change adaptation and sustainable development need to be in sync for global sustainability. Synergy between development and broader environmental issues such as climate change, desertification, and biodiversity is crucial for the Earth system’s sustainable management without crossing planetary boundaries.

We would like to highlight following remarks on integration and adaptation for future progress:

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1. We have learned that there is a lot of information on climate change, especially at the Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, and some related information in many other organisations. The question is: How can we integrate all existing data and knowledge on climate change, its impact and vulnerability in order to make it useful for policy making and society. We discussed the need of an institution which can function as a “hub” for the existing multi-disciplinary data analysis and adaptation knowledge integration.

2. Many development activities may be classified as adaptation actions. However, we need to make an evaluation of these programs and projects from the climate change adaptation point of view in order to avoid mal-adaption actions. Climate change adaptation actions must be based on scientific knowledge on climate change, its impact and social-ecological vulnerability assessment. Adaptation demonstration projects, monitoring and evaluation are necessary steps for successful implementation of large-scale adaptation project implementation. Development of adaptation demonstration sites in different ecological-economic zones will be helpful for scaling-up of the adaptation knowledge learned.

3. We need to study vulnerability of coupled human-environmental systems (social-ecological, social-environmental or human-natural systems) in order to address complexity, resilience, adaptability and sustainability of real systems. Many fragmented projects failed because they were often fragmented addressing only conservation or poverty. Demonstration sites have to be coupled social-ecological or human-environmental systems. Adaptation and vulnerability assessment of Ulaanbaatar as a conjoined human-environmental system is most important for Mongolia simply because about half of the population is concentrated in the cities. Air pollution in the city has the worst impact on human health. Greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution problems should be addressed together.

4. Water came out as the highest priority issue for climate change adaptation and sustainable development of Mongolia. The need for development of national integrated policy for 29 water basins of Mongolia was emphasised. We have to accumulate and conserve all lake water and water from wetlands, ensure the re-use of water and manage it well.

5. Improved forecasting of climate change, its impact on ecosystems and natural resources, and vulnerability of social-ecological systems is important for adaptation policy development. However, integration of adaptation into development planning is critical for successful implementation of the integration of adaptation and sustainability. Establishment of an institution such as a Green Development Institute is expected to play a key role for greater coordination and development planning at the national and regional levels.

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5. Appendixes

Appendix 1. Agenda of Consultative Meeting

“Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development in Mongolia”

June 17-18, 2010, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Conference Room of the Mongolian Development Institute

Partizan Str. 31, Suhbaatar 5, Ulaanbaatar

June 17, 2010, Thursday

8:30-9:00 Registration

9:00-9:20 Opening remarks

Chair B. Tsogoo, Director of the Mongolian Development Institute (MDI)

D. Battulga, Chair of the Office of the President of Mongolia

Masataka Watanabe, Chair of the Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network Steering Committee, 20 mins

9:20-11:00 Keynote presentations

Chair L. Tsedendamba, Science-Secretary of the Mongolian Development Institute (MDI)

Damdin Dagvadorj, Special Envoy for Climate Change, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia: The Climate Change Policy and Measures in Mongolia, 20 min

T. Chuluun, Director, Department of Environmental Policy and Science, MDI: Climate Change Adaption and Sustainable Development of Mongolia, 20 min

Questions & Discussion

11:00-11:15: Coffee break

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11:15-13:00: Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability

Chair Mozaharul Alam, Regional Climate Change Coordinator, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)

G. Sarantuya, Director of the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology: Climate Change in Mongolia, 15 min

G. Davaa, Head of the Water Sector, the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology: Climate Change Impact on Water Resources, 15 min

M.Altanbagana, Science secretary, Dryland Sustainability Institute: Vulnerability Assessment of Social-Ecological Systems of Mongolia, 15 min

R.Mijiddorj, University of Science and Technology of Mongolia: Cross-Sectored Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change, 15 min

Questions & Discussion

13:00-14:00: Lunch “Mongolian Altai Barbeque”

14:00: “Mongolian Youth Network for Climate Change Adaptation” introduction

14:10-15:10: Gaps & Needs Discussion

Two working groups

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change (L.Tsedendamba & S.Davaanyam)

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (T.Chuluun & M.Altanbagana)

15:40-16:00 Coffee break

16:00-16:30 Reports from the Working Groups (S. Davaanyam and M.Altanbagana)

16:30-17:30 Discussion

17:30 Wrap-up & Reception (Bray house on 2st stage)

June 18, 2010, Friday

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9:00-13:00: Mainstreaming of Adaptation into Sustainable Development

(Working group meeting)

9:00-10:40

Chair: Ts.Banzragch, Director of the Sustainable Development and Strategic Planning Department, MNET

Mozaharul Alam, Regional Climate Change Coordinator, UNEP Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Thailand: Approaches of Mainstreaming Climate Change and Ecosystem Based Adaptation 20 min

L. Tsedendamba, Science Secretary of MDI: National Development Comprehensive Policy based on the Millennium Development Goals in context of Adaptation and Development, 15 min

Ts.Banzragch, Director of the Sustainable Development and Strategic Planning Department, the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, and S. Enkhbold, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation: New Program on Desertification in Context of Adaptation and Development, 15 min

B. Tsogoo, Director of MDI (in collaboration with D. Borchuluun, Department of Environmental Policy and Science, MDI and J. Dorjpurev, EEC Mongolia): Technological Transformation and Climate Change, 15 min

T. Chuluun, Director, Department of Environmental Policy and Science, MDI: Opportunities for Synergies between Climate Change, Desertification, Conservation, and Human Developmentat Multiple Scales, Demonstration Project Proposal Ideas, 15 min

Questions & Discussion

10:40-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-11:50: Discussion on (Facilitator Mahesh Pradhan, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Environment Program) “Integration of the Climate Change Adaptation into Sustainable Development”

11:50-12:00 :Closing remarks

E.Zorigt, Environmental Policy Advisor to the President of Mongolia

Masataka Watanabe, Chair of the Steering Committee of the Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network

T. Chuluun, Director, Department of Environmental Policy and Science, MDI

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Appendix 2. Protocol of the Final Summary Session (by S. Davaanyam)

Banzragch (MNE):

One of the key issues is forest for climate change adaptation. The Mongolian drylands forest is very vulnerable to climate change.

Munhjargal (UNDP Project Disaster management):

How to establish a National Platform of Climate Change Adaptation under the MDI?

Budnyam.

Ecological or environmental criteria should be included into the human development index. It is a very important issue.

Jargalsaihan (National Development and Innovation committee):

We need to discuss industry; mining and social sector as well, not just animal husbandry. So, we may need to set up Inter-sectored National Committee on Climate Change Adaptation. Also we need to work not only on the current situation, but also on future climate change scenarios and social-economic estimations.

M.Altanbagana (DSI): Let’s have a policy based on ecological zones. The Khangai mountain ecosystem is different from steppe and Gobi ecosystems. Likewise, livestock structure and social-economic conditions are different from each other for these ecosystems. We need to do integrated ecosystem assessment, based on lessons learnt from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Also there is a lack of comprehensive assessment of social-ecological systems.

E.Zorigt I would like to offer that climate change adaptation sector be established under Mongolian Development Institute (MDI) or reorganise the MDI as a Green Development Institute. We need to integrate all data and information related to climate change adaptation. President of Mongolia has also said that climate change adaptation issues should be linked to individual economic interest.

L.Tsedendamba (MDI) Adaptation objectives should be integrated into Sustainable Development Concept and other development documents as adaptation policies can’t be coordinated through development policies. We have no experience and knowledge on integration of adaptation into development planning, so the UNDP should help us for capacity building.

Saran Selenge (GTZ Climate and Biodiversity program) Climate change committee under Ministry of Nature and Environment hasn’t yet been founded. Will this committee be under the Ministry or Government of Mongolia? It may be better if each ministry will have an officer who is responsible for climate change issues. A study to forecast climate change in future has already

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been conducted. However, these research findings will have to be delivered simply for all stakeholders. Also, it is necessary to identify and research more vulnerable and degraded areas based on climate indicators such as temperature change and evaporation. An integrated database center should be established because of many separate studies without cooperation.

Tsengel Nergui (Office of Special Envoy on Climate Change under the Ministry) I appreciate you for conducting this meeting. It is very important to involve as many people as possible for this challenge. Climate change is a great challenge. As a whole, it is focused on two issues such as mitigation and adaptation. Some people lack knowledge and information on climate change. We have no time. Certain actions must be taken based on information and knowledge. Climate change and adaptation issues shouldn’t be questioned. Instead, we need to start taking action because we need it. Zorigt’s proposal to establish Green Development Institute is good. Our country is dry and is located under a strong wind current. Also most of our water resources flow out. So water challenge and climate change are not only the work of one ministry but also a national security problem. Hence, water security is our main problem.

Masataka Watanabe: We need to do both long-term and short-term planning and activities. Besides ecological assessment, it is essential to do economic assessment for future needs. Of course, predicted results are not real or perfect. But we need to use our current data effectively. Our sustainable development depends on natural resources. So we need to develop new concepts. We have two choices: to either change our society or transform new technology.

Mahesh Pradhan: The participants put forward many interesting ideas on ecosystem assessment of Mongolia. All sides understood that in order to build capacity, it is essential to build scientific institutions and make decision makers aware about climate change. We discussed knowledge and information, integrated database, traditional nomadic culture and green human development index.

As a whole, I would like to emphasise that the discussion was very effective and productive. In my opinion, now we have to see how we can get project or money from Adaptation Fund and Adaptation Network. We (UNEP) will help you in doing this by conducting a preparatory study.

Closing remarks

E.Zorigt, Environmental Policy Advisor to the President of Mongolia

Masataka Watanabe, Chair of the Steering Committee of the Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network

T. Chuluun, Director, Department of Environmental Policy and Science, MDI

Zorigt The adaptation issue has been discussed only within Mongolia until now. Unfortunately, it is impossible to manage natural resources as we used to do in the past because of the extreme climate change at present. All sectors are aware of this problem. But it is very important to integrate and combine information gathered by various ministries and sectoral policies. So we discussed issues of organisation. Research has been conducted for a long time. Now we would like to start activities based on the past and present study results. The voice of the scientists

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must be heard so that their views about adaptation options and activities can be reflected in the development policies. This meeting was very important and well-timed. Thank you all.

Masataka Watanabe Thank you so much for all your hard work and active participation. All proposals from this meeting and discussion will be gathered and reflected upon for further recommendations. It should be Mahesh’s function.

T. Chuluun I thank everybody for your active participation. Also, I thank Prof. Watanabe and the APAN for your decision to conduct the first consultative meeting in Mongolia.

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Appendix 3. Summary of working group discussion on “Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment” Moderator: T.Chuluun

Rapporteur: M.Altanbagana

Main points:

• As seen from vulnerability assessment of ecosystem, it is important to identify negative impacts of the changing climate, and tailor adaptation strategies for ecological zones. We need to have preparedness for the negative impacts in both the near and distant future. To implement adaptation measures, we have to attract domestic and international investment, aid and support.

• We need to focus on a policy and management plan based on ecosystem and river basins. Mongolia is divided into 29 river-basin areas. First, we should develop a policy and management plan based on local participation and then insert it into a national document. The good practices at the grassroots should be reflected in the local government’s development program.

• We need to collect water in dried up places of lakes to avoid loss of water due to melting of ice sheet and glaciations, and thus ensure water security. Also most resources of surface water outflow from Mongolia to other countries. So, water security has become an urgent problem and its importance will only intensify in the near future.

• We have to take into consideration the education of herders. Particularly, there is an urgent need to conduct training on sustainable development and pastoral ecosystem management for herders and local citizens because local people lack knowledge and skills.

• For uneducated herders, it is important to possess education. So, I am promoting “spare time school” for herders. Herders can gain good knowledge and skills on pasture use management, climate change adaptation and natural extreme events such as drought and zud through this school.

• We have to formulate an adaptation and development policy based on ecosystem zones because each ecosystem is different from others by social lifestyle, livestock structure and ecosystems. Also, we need to conduct vulnerability assessment of ecosystems and social-ecological systems based on lessons learnt from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

• First, we have to change our lifestyle to adapt to climate change. Let’s plant trees in protected areas by fencing along railway and parks. How can we increase herders’ income? By investing in cashmere as that is his main source of income. But goats are one of the leading causes of pasture degradation. So we need to popularise the meat of young animals, which will not only increase herders’ income but also decrease pasture pressure.

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Appendix 4. Summary of Working Group Discussion on Social-economic Vulnerability

Moderator: L.Tsedendamba

Rapporteur: S.Davaanyam

Main questions:

1. Socio-economic vulnerability issues

2. What will we do to mitigate risks?

Main points of participants:

• There is lack of public knowledge. Some people like to say that climate change and adaptation are only scientists’ and policy makers’ issues. However, everybody can contribute to it. So there is an urgent need to implement multilateral effective measures to improve public knowledge. Knowledge and information must be distributed among rural people because business and education gap between urban and rural people is widening.

• We need to develop national adaptation program which will include public and youth participation.

• Main sectors at risk are: 1. Pastoral animal husbandry, 2.Agriculture, 3.Human health 4. Water security, 5. Fuel and renewable energy. We need to adapt new technology to make energy from coal and biomass. 6. Environment and ecology. 7. Human settlement policy to avoid over-concentration in UB city, uncontrolled urbanisation and air pollution.

• We have a problem of finances, thus we need to identify funding sources.

• It is necessary to add mining and foreign trade issues to the issue of adaptation. We have to choose a path which is both economically and ecologically sustainable.

• All stakeholders need to understand that economic vulnerability has increased because of climate change. We have no other choice, but to go for irrigated farming in order to increase land productivity.

• Support export, and substitute imports; we should export processed products instead of raw materials such as raw cashmere.

• Herders have become more vulnerable and so they are migrating to urban areas. So we need to improve infrastructure, educational and health services besides creating new work places in the countryside. Also we need to introduce gas fuel to decrease the use of wood fuel.

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• There is lack of socio-economic vulnerability study and data. So we have to conduct study on assessment of socio-economic vulnerability.

• We need to formulate adaptation and development policies based on 29 river basins. Renewable resources management is important.

• All ministries are responsible for the above-mentioned issues. So it is important to link them to synergise their work. May be, the National Development and Innovation Committee can perform this function.

• Local administrative-territorial units should independently develop own suggestions on legal environment, including possibility of managing themselves in the interest of decentralisation.

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Sustai

Growt

Figure 1. NDVI Change in Mongolia

Appendix 5. Vegetation Trend Analysis

(Speed presentation B. Tserenchunt)

Plant Productivity Trends Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Information

B. Tserenchunt, T. Chuluun & D. Ojima

We studied vegetation trends in Mongolia, using long-term remotely sensed vegetation index (NDVI, 1982-2008). First, we related the remotely sensed vegetation index NDVI long-term (1982-2008) average value intervals to the main 6 ecological zones. Then we studied changes in areas within these NDVI intervals. We found that the areas occupied by main ecological zones didn’t change (Figure 1, Table 1), in other words, there wasn’t any shift in the main ecological zone boundaries.

Table 1. NDVI Interval, Related to Ecological Zones

№ NDVI values Ecological

zones

1 0.001-0.15 Desert

2 0.1501-0.3 Desert steppe

3 0.301-0.45 Steppe

4 0.4501-0.6 Forest steppe

5 0.601-0.75 High mountains

6 0.7501-1 Tundra

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Table 2. Ecological Zones's Vegetation Area Changes (km2, %)

Ecologcal zones, km2

1982-1990

1991-1999

2000-2008

1991-1999 /1982-1990 changed %

2000-2008 / 1991-1999 changed %

2000-2008/ 1982-1990 changed %

Desert 302682.3 303068.5 302418.8 -0.087 -0.215 -0.087

Desert Steppe 363652.1 363923.1 363775.0 0.034 -0.041 0.034

Steppe 542899.0 543260.7 542651.3 -0.046 -0.112 -0.046

Forest Steppe 239340.4 239172.2 239444.8 0.044 0.114 0.044

Tundra 58576.6 58935.6 58805.4 0.388 -0.221 0.389

High mountain 68061.6 68109.7 68054.5 -0.010 -0.081 -0.010

• Desert area didn’t change during the last 27 years.

• Averaged (2000-2008) area of southern part of the desert steppe expanded northward by 7.2% relative to the average area between 1982-1990, however, the northern part of the desert steppe shrunk by 4.7% (Fig. 2).

• Southern part of the steppe expanded northward by 6.5% and northern part of the steppe shrunk by 2.2% as compared to the average areas of sub-eco-zones of the steppe between 2000-2008 and 1982-1990.

• The same comparison shows that mountain forest-steppe areas expanded by 11.1%, but high mountain forest-steppe reduced by 21.3%.

Figure 2. Shifts of Sub-eco-zones in Desert Steppe, Dry Steppe, and Forest Steppe Regions

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Summary Vegetation trends analysis in Mongolia, using long-term remotely sensed vegetation index NDVI (1982-2008) showed that the boundaries of main ecological zones (forest steppe, steppe, and desert steppe) did not shift. However, there were changes within the main ecological zones, particularly, southern parts with relatively lower productivity (southern sub-ecological zones) have expanded in area by 6.5%-11.1% northward, and the northern parts with relatively higher productivity (northern sub-ecological zones) have shrunk in parts. Expansion of relatively lower productive sub-ecological zones means that plant productivity over all decreased due to climate and land use changes (Fig.2).

Full paper was published at:

Chuluun, T., B. Tserenchunt, D. Ojima, R.Tsolmon, N. Enkhjargal, T. Erdenezaya and B. Batbileg. 2010. Vegetation Trends Analysis in Mongolia: Using Long-term Remotely Sensed Vegetation Index NDVI (1982-2008). In: The Proceedings of the 4th International and National workshop “Applications of Geo-informatics for Natural Resource and Environment”, June 2010, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

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Appendix 6. Gap Analysis

Social-Economic Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change

S.Davaanyam and L.Tsedendamba

Dryland Sustainability Institute, aanaad@yahoo.com

Mongolian Development Institute, ltsedendamba@yahoo.com

Introduction

The total territory of Mongolia is 156.4 million hectares, of which 72.1% or 112.8 million hectares belong to pasture and hay making area. This is currently the basis of the livestock sector development which is a major source of socio-economic development of Mongolia. According to the census at the end of 2009, 43 million heads of livestock were counted. The share of the livestock sector in GDP and Gross Agricultural Product is 20% and 80%, respectively. So, rational use of this natural and renewable resource could serve as a foundation for the sustainable socio-economic development of Mongolia. Unfortunately, pasture productivity and capacity is decreasing year by year due to the multiple negative influences of human factors and environmental issues like climate change, including precipitation, its uneven distribution, variability, warming, dryness, drought, and zud etc. The main factor leading to pasture degradation is lack of technologies for rational use, protection and improvement of pasture land on the one hand, and absence of any legal environment and optimal pasture management suited for the market economy on the other.

Complex dynamic changes in pastoral social-ecological systems have occurred since 1990 in the transition to a market economy. The number of herders has more than doubled since the early 1990s as a result of the economic migration spurred by livestock privatisation. Due to a rise in the price of cashmere, goat numbers increased four times, from as much as 5.1 million in 1990 to 20 million in 2009 since the transition to open market economy (Mongolian Statistical Yearbook, 2009).

Recent climate change threatens to hasten the post-glacial change and increase the country’s vulnerability to drought, to receding permafrost and tree-lines, and to increased frequency of zuds and other major weather events. Internationally accepted global climate models show that climate change is expected to cause the desert to expand northwards into the steppe and that southern Mongolia would be very vulnerable to climate change, and the northern half of the country less so.

Socio-economic Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt (Adger, 2006).

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The key challenge facing Mongolia is to ensure human security in the face of vulnerabilities and threats stemming largely from the economic restructuring process that began in 1990. It is estimated that 36% of the population lives below the poverty line. The Government hopes to halve absolute poverty by 2015 but for exceeding MDG, it will require a growth rate of 7% or higher.

Similar to other developing peoples, Mongolians have been migrating to urban areas for some time but this was interrupted briefly when many people returned to the land for sustenance as the economy stumbled after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the cessation of its support. The trend toward increased uncontrolled urbanisation can be expected to continue.

Social vulnerability is defined as a threat to human security resulting from the lack of social capital and social infrastructure, including social safety nets and social overhead capital which affect resilience to external shocks. Social vulnerability also relates closely to economic and ecological factors.

Mongolia’s current growth strategy relies on mineral resources extraction/export, extensive livestock husbandry, export-oriented manufacturing (such as textile-based industries supported by FDI) and tourism. Growth will call for an expansion of livestock productivity, the mining sector and the industry and energy sectors, with consequences for pollution of air, land and water, and land degradation.

Vulnerability has great domestic political significance in Mongolia. The Government National Security Concept (Section 5) identifies domestic factors which may negatively affect the economic security of the country:

• Ecological disturbances;

• Regional development imbalances;

• Livestock and agriculture gene-pool loss;

• Inflow of goods which may negatively affect national security;

• Excessively high inflation and budget deficits;

• Foreign debt and a resulting dependence on foreign countries;

• An excessive inflow of foreign citizens, or exodus of well-educated nationals;

• Excessive unemployment.

Ecological security issues in Mongolia include:

• Climate, climate change and natural disasters;

• Deforestation, land degradation, desertification and loss of biodiversity;

• Air and water pollution;

• Solid and effluent waste.

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When the zuds of 1999-2002, and 2009-2010 hit Mongolia, there was little preparedness. In addition, the impact on people and animals was made worse by the high number of livestock, and many herders subsisting off the land because of limited alternative opportunities.

The disaster protection and risk reduction mechanisms that assisted herders during the Soviet era have been largely abandoned. Gone are livestock shelters, state- funded maintenance of water wells and subsidized veterinary services land transport costs. Without the supportive infrastructure, herders move their stock to places where water and social support is available and access to market is relatively easy. The consequences include overgrazing of areas around water sources and settlements and increased economic insecurity of herders.

Livestock sector is an important one in Mongolia, providing about 40% labor and producing 20.6% of the GDP. However, rural poverty is high compared to urban: 43.4% of rural people are leaving below the poverty line (Table 1). Reasons for this poverty gap between urban and rural population are lack of employment opportunities, lack of energy supply, no markets for products sale and services, low infrastructure development such as road and communication, and lack of information.

Table 1. Poverty Level: National, Urban and Rural, %

№ Location People’s % below poverty line

1. National level 36.1

Which of: Urban 30.3

Rural 43.4

which of: sum center 44.5

Countryside 42.7

Source: Poverty mapping, 2009

Poverty has increasing trend with distance from the center of Mongolia. Unpleasant news is that poverty increased from 42.7% in 2002-2003 to 49.7% in 2007-2008 (World Bank, 2005 & 2009).

A gap in the level of development of industrial infrastructure (roads, energy and communications networks, etc.) only worsens the situation. The table below shows the availability of road networks in the region.

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Table 2. The Availability of Road Networks by Economic regions

Name of a region/indicator Western Khangai Central Eastern

Coefficient 0.13 0.88 1.60 0.63

There are significant differences among the cities, provinces and regions of Mongolia with respect to the level of both economic and social development (Tsedendamba L, 2003).

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0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

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Development level general index, by aimags, 2003

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

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Therefore, vulnerability of pastoral social-ecological systems is high in remote areas due to higher poverty level, and in central region due to overgrazing of rangelands. Pastoral systems are the most vulnerable when social and ecological vulnerability interacts. We need to increase resilience of pastoral social-ecological systems, targeting both social and ecological benefits especially in vulnerable zones. Actions, which target only a part of the problem, tend to fail.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development

The impacts of climate change can impede development and threaten the efficacy and sustainability of development investments. In turn, sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, because vulnerability depends on factors linked to development, including access to economic, ecological, and social and human resources, and inadequate institutions, governance and infrastructure. Adaptation activities are therefore often regarded as synonymous with development activities and key to good development practices. As stated by Huq and Ayers (2008), “Good (or sustainable) development (policies and practice) can (and often do) lead to building adaptive capacity. Doing adaptation to climate change often also means doing good (or sustainable) development”.

Defining adaptation in specifically climate change terms ignores the now widely accepted role of development in contributing to building resilience. Vulnerability to climate change is determined not only by the impacts of climate change on people and the resources on which they depend, but also by the entitlement of individuals over these and alternative resources. By extension, sustainable development reduces vulnerability to climate change. If we consider the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), for example, reducing poverty, providing general education and health services, improving living conditions in urban settlements, and providing access to financial markets and technologies, will all improve the livelihoods of vulnerable individuals, households and communities, and therefore increase their ability to engage in adaptive action.

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development is one way of taking advantage of the synergies between them to meet the mutual objective of vulnerability reduction. ‘Climate proofing’ development will ensure the sustainability of development investments, whilst ‘climate-proofed development’ will build resilience to climate change.

Also we need to evaluate climate change impact on Mongolian economy based on international studies.

Table 3. Impact of Projected Climate Change on Global Welfare, GDP, and Production, 2080 Percent Change

Country and region

GDP Welfare (EV as % of GDP)

Terms of trade

Sectoral output

Crop agriculture Livestock Processed

food

World -1.4 -1.3 -7.4 -5.9 -4.6

Japan 0 -0.2 -0.4 1.9 0.5 2.2

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China -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 -1.9 -3.6

Korea -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -5.1 -1.4 -0.4

Central Asia -1.9 -1.5 1.8 49.7 -10.9 -0.5

Source: CGE model simulation results, Zhai et al, 2009

Integrated adaptive approach is very important to enhance resilient rural livelihood coping with economic and ecological disasters. Adaptive social protection (ASP) combines key elements of social protection (SP) including animal and social insurance, community approach (institutional approach) disaster fund, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CAA) approaches as a means to promote climate-resilient rural livelihoods in policy and practice in pastoral risk management.

Gap Analysis

What are the gaps on social-economic vulnerability?

• Integrated vulnerability study of social-ecological systems to global change;

• Identification of the most socially vulnerable regions to climate change;

• To assess economic loss caused by climate change during 1990-2010;

• Economic cost of the recovery from climate-related disasters, or for rehabilitation;

• Environment-induced migration study and human settlement problems;

• Capacity building for social dimension study on climate change;

• Lack of cooperation from stakeholders;

• Improved awareness on climate change adaptation actions and human security;

• To provide synergy between climate change adaptation and poverty reduction;

• Imbalanced urban and rural sustainable development;

• Low Institutional development of climate change adaptation at local and national levels.

We suggest the following indicators for social-economic vulnerability integrated assessment at the local administrative unit level:

• GDP per capita;

• Vulnerability to natural disasters;

• High transportation cost and remoteness from market;

• Population size or market;

• Share of agriculture in GDP;

• Human Development Index;

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• Infrastructure development;

• Dependency on national budget.

Dryland is very sensitive to global warming and human activities. Water scarcity and global warming due to increased evapo-transpiration make the dryland one of the most vulnerable zones under climate change. At the same time, human-induced land use change in drylands generated land degradation, the expansion of land under desertification, loss of groundwater reservoirs and increased dust storm frequency.

Table 4. Some indicators of Sustainable Development in Mongolia № Objectives Document Implementation

1. To halve poverty level 2002-2015: from 36% to 18%

- Millennium Development Goals;

- MDG-based National Development Strategy.

National 36% - 32%

(1995-2006):

Urban 38% - 27%

Rural 33% - 37%

2. Closing gap between urban and rural development

- Regional development plan

Not successful

3. Millennium road building - MDG-based National Development Strategy;

- Regional Development Plan.

Performance: 40%-50%

4. Renewable energy use - MDG-based National Development Strategy;

- Regional Development Plan.

70% of herders were supplied by renewable energy sources

5. Decrease deforestation and increase forest

- Millennium Development Goals Forest cover decrease: 9.0% to 7.7% (1990-2006)

6. Increase protected area up to 30%

- Millennium Development Goals 13.3% (2006)

7. To protect riverhead - Millennium Development Goals 40%-50% of the total riverheads protected

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Table 5. Regional Approach: Mongolia is the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change in East Asia Indicators Mongolia China Korea Japan

GDP per capita, PPP World bank, 2009 (US USD) 3,527 6,675 27,169 32,443

Agriculture % in GDP, 2009 20 12 3 1.3

Agricultural employment (% of total employment), 2004

40 64 8 6

Irrigated land (% of cropland, 2005) 7 36 48

Climate change (warming by temperatures), 0C

2.1

(past 70 years)

0.5-0.8

(100 years)

1.1

(100 years)

1.0

Dietary Energy Consumption (Kcal/person/day,2005)

2,190 2,990 3,030 3,000

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Figure 5. Institutional System Vulnerability of Pastoral Social-Ecological System in Mongolia

Institutional system: Causal structure of vulnerability of pastoral social-ecological systems in Mongolia displays interconnectedness of many factors, but improvement of root causes such as strengthening of governance, legislation, capacity, knowledge base, cooperation, and restoration of cultural landscapes are critical for over-all good functioning of pastoral risk management system.

Global Change and Local Impact Poor, natural resource-dependent communities and households bear disproportionate burden of climate change impacts;

• Adaptation occurs locally: Knowing local costs and benefits, and relationship to local institutions necessary to inform macro-level efforts;

• Widen adaptation focus beyond technical and infrastructure options;

1982-1990

1991-1999 2000-2008

Figure 1. NDVI Change in Mongolia

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

Loss of biodive

rsity

Water shortage

Rangeland ecosystem

Low pastoral

High sensiti

Low pastor

Weak infrastructure

Improper settlement of Vulnerability

Human development

Health Education

Low income and food

Unemployment and no diverse

Income poverty Weak

governance

Unclear legislation

Weak cooperation of

Weak legislation

Weak cooperati

on

Lack of knowhow

Weak tradition-

knowledge

Weak knowledge

base

Land fragmenta

Weak capacity

Lack of awareness

Lack of adaptive policy and strategy

Weak leadership

Weak legislation for

local

Uncontrolled “otor” movement

Overgraze near local centers

Overgraze near water bodies

Overgrazing

Mining with no

rehabilitation

Uncontrolled deforestation

Improper use of local

plants for fuel

Water pollution

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• Analyzing costs and benefits of concrete, historical, adaptation strategies necessary to prioritise future competing options.

Adaptation Actions should Consider Specifics and Priority:

• Regionally (Ecological and economic zones);

• Spatially (remoteness, settlement patterns);

• Technological transformation and innovation;

• Sectored priority;

• Reduction of vulnerability assessment on social-ecological systems;

• Institutional diversification;

• Participatory approach.

Key sectors for adaptation are animal husbandry, agriculture, water resources, forestry, food, security, health, transport and infrastructure, energy, and trade.

Research questions for adaptation:

• What are the most cost-effective and suitable local adaptation strategies used by people to reduce risk of climate change impact in selected locations?

• What motivates the selection of adaptation options?

• Are existing adaptation strategies the most appropriate for selected communities?

• In what ways can external interventions work through the existing or new local institutions to make the existing adaptation processes more effective (in terms of impacts on livelihoods, equity, and sustainability)?

Cost assessment of historical adaptations to climate risks and understanding the role of local institutions in adaptation to climate change are required. Awareness, participation, accountability and ownership are essential for resilience and adaptation to climate variability and change.

Recommendations for mainstreaming adaptation to climate change for decision-makers of local government and communities:

• Social-ecological vulnerability assessment must be done before adaptation actions are implemented;

• Risks, costs, and benefits of adaptation options in rural contexts must be studied;

• Institutional investments necessary to facilitate cost-effective adaptation;

• It would be beneficial to make recommendations based on pilot demonstration sites.

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Mongolia can take advantage of global adaptation fund, its location in the developed region of East Asia, and national legal framework documents on sustainable development, desertification, climate change, and regional development for a synergetic action to mainstream climate change adaptation into sustainable development.

Summary Mongolia is already under pressure from climate change and variability, which is increasing the vulnerability of social-ecological systems. Zuds and droughts have occurred with increased frequency and intensity like during 1999-2002 and 2009-2010, causing the death of 8 to 9 million of livestock. We need to study the current economic loss from climate-related disasters and for rehabilitation cost. Desertification is currently a big problem in Mongolia due to climate change and overexploitation of land resources. With further climate change, climate in Mongolia is predicted to become more variable and extreme weather events more frequent and severe. Key vulnerable sectors and areas for Mongolia include animal husbandry, agriculture, water, human health, biodiversity and ecosystems.

Major deterrents for Mongolia in climate science and adaptation are lack of knowledge, expertise and data on socio-economic issues related to climate change; lack of specific climate change institutions to take leadership on climate change adaptation and sustainable development, and absence of a sound institutional framework to implement adaptation. Actions to address these gaps include: training programs for local government officials, dedicated research activities and post-graduate courses; and the initiation of specific institutional frameworks for climate change.

Requirements for adaptation include: better links between climate research and policy-making, mainstreaming climate change consideration into development plans and programs; education and awareness creation in governments, institutions and individuals; better forecasting and early warning systems. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation considerations into development strategies and country policies and programs will be the key to ensuring that development efforts are not mal-adaptive to climate change. In addition, the Mongolian government needs to promote synergies between all of the UN Conventions.

References Adger W.N. 2006. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16(2006) 268-281.

ADB. 2009. The economics of climate change in Southeast Asia: A regional review.

Ailikun, Ying YANG. 2010. The 1st MAIRS workshop on Coupled Human-Environment Systems in Dryland.

Ayers, Jessica M. and Huq, Saleemul. 2008. Supporting adaptation to climate change: What role for Official Development Assistance?, Presented at DSA Annual Conference, 2008.

Chuluun T., Altanbagana, M. Davaanyam, S., Tserenchunt, B., and Ojima, D. 2010. Vulnerability of pastoral communities in central Mongolia to climate and land use changes. Submitted to GLP paper book.

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Davies, M., Guenther, B., Leavy, J., Mitchell., T. and Tanner, T. 2008. Climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and social protection: Complementary roles in agriculture and rural growth? IDS Working Paper, Volume 2009, Number 320.

Ministry of Environment. 2008. Implementation assessment report on Sustainable Development Strategy of Mongolia.

Ministry of Finance and Economy. 2007. Implementation report on Millennium development goals.

Mongolian Development Institute. 2008. Millennium development goals-based comprehensive national development strategy of Mongolia.

National Statistical Office of Mongolia. 2010. Statistical yearbook of Mongolia – 2009.

Perrin, Nicolas, Kononen, Minna and Agrawal, Arun. 2008. The role of local institutions in adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Social Development Department, World Bank.

Tsedendamba, L. 2004. Theoretical grounds, methods and methodology of regional development program developing Mongolia.

Tun Lin. 2010. East Asia’s agriculture under a changing climate. ADB.

UNDP. 2005. Economic and ecological vulnerabilities and human security in Mongolia.

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Appendix 7. Vulnerability Gap Survey Results Among the Consultative Meeting Participants

Prepared by B. Tserenchunt

Name

Question (GAPS)

What are the urgent problems for vulnerability to

climate change?

Answer (NEEDS)

What can we do for reduction of the vulnerability and adaptation increase?

Prof, T. Chuluun,

Department of Environmental Science and Policy, MDI

chuluun@warnercnr.colostate.edu

Water issue has become an urgent issue in the forest steppe and steppe regions.

Not to exacerbate the negative effects of climate change with human activities like mining, overgrazing etc.;

Construct water harvesting systems.

Integrated vulnerability assessment of human-environmental systems

Need of an institution and leaders who can design adaptation (demonstration) and policy at multiple scales.

L. Natsagdorj,

Eco Planet Company, Advisor natsag03@yahoo.com

Reduce pastoral animal husbandry risk

This sector has a defective regulation policy. We have to change the management of nomadic animal husbandry. If we don’t do this fast, we’ll suffer from hunger in the coming decades.

Permafrost melting

Protect water resources and accumulate them. Regulate the flow of some rivers.

Prof, R. Mijiddorj,

Director, Center of Ecology and Sustainable Development, MUST

osm_infor@mongol.net

Pasture degradation and desertification

Improve training of rural people

There is not enough knowledge on climate change

We could export lamb, earning the same income from cashmere export. It will reduce overgrazing.

Tree planting along roads, inside of protected places like fences. It will be useful for protection from wind, conservation of soil moisture and capture of snow.

Reduction of water resources

and increased evaporation Implement the right policy to reduce evaporation. For instance, provide households with water and fertiliser for tree

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G. Davaa, Ph.D

Head, Water Sector,

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

planting.

Lack of integrated policy on water basin. “Law on Water” doesn’t support positive activities

Ecosystem-based adaptation policy is necessary

To develop national integrated policy for water basins, combining smaller water basins; Mongolia has 29 water basins.

D. Borchuluun,

Material Scientist, MDI, d.borchuluun@yahoo.com

Issue of fuel and gas We have to build an industry of gas fuel and gasoline in Mongolia.

Shortage of phylogenic biomass

Expand the policy for renewable resources, including biofuels.

Batmunkh,

Economist, MDI, Dashkuu.batmunkh@yahoo.com

Freshwater shortage Regulate the licences of mining resources in the water resource areas.

Global warming Combine the efforts of all developing and developed countries.

P.Ongontsetseg,

Economic modeler, MDI,

oogii_r2009@yahoo.com

Increased dust-storm and sand movement

To de-centralise budget, so that local governments can combat desertification.

Drying up of rivers and streams

To implement “Sea-buckthorn national program”

N. Tomorbaatar,

Economist, MDI,

ntomor@yahoo.com

Air pollution We haven’t any adaptation policy.

Soil degradation

To take soil restoration measures all over the city.

L. Mandal,

Chair of the Environmental and Tourist Department,

Bayarnkhonogr aimag. maagii_l@yahoo.com

Desertification intensification To build green construction, especially in the city center.

Protect the origins of rivers, streams and springs.

Increase of livestock number (actually increase of goat number)

Develop sedentary and intensive animal husbandry to accommodate livestock number within the carrying capacity level.

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M. Oyunchimeg,

Director of Institute for Future NEP of

UNEP TUNZA NEAYEN, ochbol@yahoo.com

Public knowledge about climate change issues is very low. Businessmen, young people and population don’t understand climate change adaptation. They think that “only policy makers can do it”.

Everybody has to understand importance for climate change adaptation strategy, therefore we have to take substantial steps to generate widespread awareness among the public.

Ch.Erdenechimeg,

Asia Foundation,

erdee@asiafound.mn

Climate change impact on Mongolian ecosystem, natural resources, actually permafrost, permanent snow, glacier, rangeland and water resource. Desertification is increasing and its scope must be broader. The negative impact on water resource, biodiversity and country economics.

To improve the results of nature protection activities and the quality of degraded environmental restoration activities according to the world and national standards:

We have to grow indigenous plants, trees and shrubs for stopping of sand movement;

We need to have monitoring networks for improvement of soil and water quality.

Mongolian economic crisis causes poverty and unemployment. Forest and water are used by animal husbandry, agricultural and mining activities without any control. It impacts natural resources decrease and plant cover degradation. Also air pollution and carbon emission increase by 30% has an adverse impact on human health.

We have to make coherent sustainable development policy along with an unemployment reduction policy. Give this knowledge to folks. To assist “Green” growth and green products in industrial activities. We should invest in nature conservation, rehabilitation and in building green environment. We need to assign goals to institutions and ensure active participation of citizens in this project.

J.Jargalsaikhan,

Director of Development Policy and Strategy Department, National Development Innovation Center

Continental climate is becoming more drier in Mongolia

We have to do following economical activities for regulation of this issue:

- To irrigate agriculture

-To irrigate, fence off and protect pasture

-To grow corn and plants adapted to climate change and dryness;

- To make structural changes in the economy, to industrialise and develop service sector;

- To transfer animal husbandry to permanent farming;

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-To re-use water

- To decrease negative impact of heat waves and build up the health system.

Desertification is increasing, and impacting both forests and animals.

We have to undertake the following activities to combat desertification:

- grow drought-resistant trees and plants

- Ground water use for irrigation.

B. Erdenchimeg,

GTZ Senior Technical Staff, Climate change and Biodiversity program, Bayar.Erdenechimeg@gtz.de

Dryness, sand movement, soil erosion, plant cover and biodiversity decrease.

We have to use a strong economic mechanism for decreasing the human factor and invest in making people aware about climate change through education.

Agricultural industry (food) is at risk.

Cultivators face risks.

Science information is inadequate.

The Government doesn’t have a policy to reduce these risks.

The government are must understand that “it is its function to ensure adaptation to climate change, by making a scientific prognosis and taking adequate measures.

It should also make people from all walks of life aware about the steps they can take to reduce the harmful effects of climate change.

B. Burmaajav,

Ministry of Health, burmaajav@yahoo.com

Desertification and global warming are impacting human health.

Implement programs to combat desertification and decrease air pollution.

Infectious and un-infectious diseases, nutrient insufficiency occurring due to water and food deficiency

Water resources should be used sparingly.

Steps should be taken to stave off starvation, indigence and food scarcity.

Work for early detection and cure of the ailment and increase the diagnostic and healing capacities.

B. Binye, Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Industry, bynie99@yahoo.com

Desertification, change of pasture plant structure

Strengthen the legal environment for improving pastoral management

Growth in carbon emissions Increase awareness about new technology to decrease carbon emission

Soyol-Erdene,

Institute of Strategy Study,

Water Resource Shortage: A sharp decrease in water resources is the biggest danger in the world.

To protect and cherish water sources:

- We have to take into consideration the relationship between land, water and ecosystems, and have to use water from

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soyol_gerel@yahoo.com

rivers and other resources more reasonably.

- We must accumulate and conserve all the water in the lakes and wetlands.

Desertification: Drought, severe heat and human dimensions lead to soil degradation and desertification, which are occurring on one-fourth, of the land in the world.

– We have to boost citizens’ consciousness and restore traditional knowledge to improve our relations with environment;

- We have to choose a favourable method and technology for the agreeable use of energy.

- We have to ensure sustainable development of animal husbandry and agriculture.

I. Chinsanaa

Climate change has a negative impact on ecosystem, environment, animal husbandry and nomadic people.

We must employ the services of specialists on climate change. We also need training and awareness-raising among people in general and herders in particular.

Ger districts, cars and coal stations are contributing to climate change.

Coal stations should go for green technology, and new innovations should be introduced in the ger stove chimney and car exhausts to reduce smoke emission.

G. Battuvshin,

Researcher, canislupus_cervusmaralus@yahoo.com

Carrying capacity exceeding the livestock is causing overgrazing and pasture degradation

Develop farming and improve the livestock structure.

Indigence of rural population is increasing and they are migrating to capital city.

Develop small-scale industry and boost industrial development in the countryside.

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan

Tel: +81-46-855-3700 Fax: +81-46-855-3709

E-mail: iges@iges.or.jp,URL: http//www.iges.or.jp Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Regional Centre

604 SG Tower, 6th Floor, 161/1 Soi Mahadlek Luang 3, Rajdamri Road,

Patumwan, Bangkok, 10330 Thailand

Tel: +66 (0) 2 651-8797 Fax: +66 (0) 2 651-8798, Email: regionalcentre@iges.or.jp

Mongolian Development Institute

Office of the President of Mongolia