INTEGRATIVEASSESSMENT–FROMSHOALSTOSEASANDINTOTHEFUTURE

Frommicro-toecosystemscale:Doweknowenoughtomakedecisions?Chair:SabineCochrane,SALTandJacobCarstensen,AarhusUniversity

DEVOTESFinalConference,17–19October2016,Brussels

PRESENTORSINBLOCK6(11:00–12:25)ChristopherSmith,HellenicCentreforMarineResearchJesperAndersen,NIVADenmarkWaterResearchJacobCarstensen,AarhusUniversityLauraUusitalo,SYKEFinnishEnvironmentIns]tuteFuensantaSalasHerrero,JointResearchCentre–EuropeanCommissionNext:MikeEllio-,UniversityofHull

Howwillclimatechangeaffectmarineassessments?

ProfessorMikeEllio_

Ins]tuteofEstuarine&CoastalStudies,UniversityofHull,UK.WithacknowledgementstoÁngelBorja,JesperAndersen,KrysiaMazik,Abigail

McQua_ers-Gollop,SilvanaBirchenough,SuzannePain]ng,SueBoyes,RoxySaul,RichardBarnes&MyronPeck

DEVOTESFinalConference,October17-192016,Brussels

3

BasicPremise:

•  Exogenic(outsidethemanagementarea)andendogenic(insidethemanagementarea)pressuresproduceindividual,in-combina]onandcumula]veeffects.

•  Globalclimatechangeisanexogenicunmanagedpressurewheremanagementhastorespondtotheconsequencesratherthanthecausesofthatchange.

•  Wecansummariseourunderstandingasconceptualmodels(‘horrendograms’)toinformfuturenaturalandsocialscienceresearchandmanagement.

•  Thispresentsmanagerswiththesequenceofresponsesbythenaturalandhumansystems,andhenceindicateimpedimentstotheimplementa]onoflegisla]onsuchasEuropeanDirec]ves.

4

Hazard&RiskTypology: HazardleadingtoRisk(dependingonassets)

A)Surfacehydrologicalhazards

B)Surfacephysiographicremovalbynaturalprocesses-chronic/long-term

C)Surfacephysiographicremovalbyhumanac]ons-chronic/long-term

D)Surfacephysiographicremoval-acute/short-term

E)Climatologicalhazards-acute/shortterm

F)Climatologicalhazards-chronic/longterm

G)Tectonichazards-acute/shortterm

H)Tectonichazards-chronic/longterm

I)Anthropogenicmicrobialbiohazards

J)Anthropogenicmacrobialbiohazards

K)Anthropogenicintroducedtechnologicalhazards

L)Anthropogenicextrac]vetechnologicalhazards

M)Anthropogenicacutechemicalhazards

N)Anthropogenicchronicchemicalhazards

= Risk Assessment & Risk Management (RA&RM):

•  Hazard Identification: •  Risk Assessment: •  Risk Management: •  Risk Communication:

Abbrevia]ons:BWD=BathingWaterDirec]ve;BWM=BallastWaterManagementConven]on;CAP=CommonAgriculturalPolicy;CFP=CommonFisheriesPolicy;EIA=EnvironmentalImpactAssessmentDirec]ve;FRMD=FloodRiskManagementDirec]ve;FRMD(FRMP)=FloodRiskManagementDirec]ve(FloodRiskManagementPlan);HD=HabitatsDirec]ve;MPS=Mari]meSpa]alPlanningDirec]ve;MSFD=MarineStrategyFrameworkDirec]ve;Natura2000=HabitatsandWildBirdsdirec]ves;NitratesDir=NitratesDirec]ve;SAC=SpecialAreaofConserva]on;SEADir=StrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentDirec]ve;SPA=SpecialProtec]onArea;UWWTD=UrbanWastewaterTreatmentDirec]ve;WBD=BirdsDirec]ve;WFD=WaterFrameworkDirec]ve(withextensionoutto12nmforchemicalstatus);WFD(RBMP)=WaterFrameworkDirec]ve(RiverBasinManagementPlan)

GeographicalscopeandcompetenciesofEUmarinelegisla]on

Activity Aquaculture Extraction of living resources Transport & Shipping Renewable Energy Non-renewable (fossil fuel) Energy Non-renewable (nuclear) Energy Extraction of non-living resources Navigational Dredging Coastal Infrastructure Land-based Industry Agriculture Tourism/Recreation Military Research Carbon Sequestration

Activities contributing to Endogenic Managed Pressures

Pressures Smothering Substratum loss Changes in siltation Abrasion Selective extraction of non-living resources (habitat removal) Underwater noise Litter Thermal regime change Salinity regime change Introduction of synthetic compounds Introduction of non-synthetic compounds Introduction of radionuclides Introduction of other substances

Nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment Input of organic matter Introduction of microbial pathogens Introduction of non-indigenous species and translocations Selective extraction of species Death or injury by collision Barrier to species movement Emergence regime change Water flow rate changes pH changes Electromagnetic changes Change in wave exposure

Pressure Description Thermal regime change Temperature change (average, range,

variability), climate change (large scale) Salinity regime change Temperature change (average, range,

variability) due to climate change (large scale) Emergence regime change

Change in natural sea level (mean, variation, range) due climate change (large scale) and isostatic rebound

Water flow rate changes Change in currents (speed, direction, variability) due to climate change (large scale)

pH changes Change in pH (mean, variation, range) due to climate change (large scale), volcanic activity (local)

Change in wave exposure

Change in size, number, distribution and/or periodicity of waves along a coast due to climate change (large scale).

Exogenic Unmanaged Pressures – Climate Change-Induced Physico-chemical Pressures

Figure 2 Primary drivers and consequences of marine global climate change (cross-referring to other figures)

Increased atmospheric CO2

Altered temperature regime

Physico-chemical water changes

Loss of polar ice-cover (Fig.

10)

Increase in relative sea level

Physiographic changes (Fig.

5)

Physiological responses

(Fig. 4) Changes to coastal

hydrodynamics (Fig. 6)

Ocean acidification

(Fig. 9)

Species re-distribution (Fig.

3)

Changes to climate patterns

Changes to estuarine

hydrodynamics (Fig. 8)

Changes to NAO/EAO and rainfall run-off

(Fig. 7)

Figure 3 Species re-distribution and community response due to altered temperature regime (MSFD Descriptor denoted in brackets, see text)

Altered temperature regime

Species distribution change (D1, 4)

Northern species decrease in area (D1,

3, 4)

Southern species increase in area (D1, 3, 4)

Change in community structure & functioning (D1, 4, 6)

Fisheries repercussions (D3)

Increase of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ species (D1)

Conservation management repercussions (D1, 6)

Decrease of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ species (D1)

Species distribution change (D1, 4)

Increased susceptibility to alien & invasive

species (D1, 2, 4)

10

Hazard&RiskTypology: HazardleadingtoRisk(dependingonassets)

A)Surfacehydrologicalhazards

B)Surfacephysiographicremovalbynaturalprocesses-chronic/long-term

C)Surfacephysiographicremovalbyhumanac]ons-chronic/long-term

D)Surfacephysiographicremoval-acute/short-term

E)Climatologicalhazards-acute/shortterm

F)Climatologicalhazards-chronic/longterm

G)Tectonichazards-acute/shortterm

H)Tectonichazards-chronic/longterm

I)Anthropogenicmicrobialbiohazards

J)Anthropogenicmacrobialbiohazards

K)Anthropogenicintroducedtechnologicalhazards

L)Anthropogenicextrac]vetechnologicalhazards

M)Anthropogenicacutechemicalhazards

N)Anthropogenicchronicchemicalhazards

CC – hazards caused or exacerbated by climate change or societal responses to climate change!!

CC

CC CC

CC

CC CC

CC CC

CC

CC CC

CC

CC CC

Summary:Crossrela]onshipsbetweenCCimpactsandGEnSDescriptors

11

Topics Descriptor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 I Altered temperature regime – species re-distribution and community response

ü ü ü ü ü

II Altered temperature regime – individual physiological/phenological response

ü ü ü ü ü ü

III Increased relative sea-level rise - physiographic changes

ü ü ü ü ü

IV Increased climate variability effects on coastal hydrodynamics

ü ü ü ü

V Changes to large scale climatic patterns due to land run-off

ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü

VI Increased relative sea-level rise changing estuarine hydrodynamics

ü ü ü ü

VII Increased ocean acidification and seawater physico-chemical changes

ü ü ü ü ü ü

VIII Loss of polar ice cover and global transport repercussions

ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü

Sum categories 8 3 6 8 3 7 5 2 2 1 1

MSFDWording

12

In the proposed MSFD (CEC 2005), the highly variable nature of marine ecosystems and the changes over time in human activities and pressures, were cited as the reasons for having an adaptive, flexible and dynamic definition of GEnS. The wording had then changed in the final Directive to: ‘In view of the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems and their natural variability, and given that the pressures and impacts on them may vary with the evolvement of different patterns of human activity and the impact of climate change, it is essential to recognise that the determination of good environmental status may have to be adapted over time.’

15. Prevent deterioration (R)

1. Vision/aim (to achieve GEnS) (D)

16. Re-vision/revision

14. Perform management (R)

4. Activities (A)

6. Pressures (Annex III) (P)

12. Determine the effect on society (I(W))

13. Programme of cost-effective measures (R)

3. 11 Descriptors (Annex I)

10. Monitoring programme (to detect change against a target) (R)

11. Assess current status cf. GEnS (S)

5. 29 Criteria

7. Decide pressure & state indicators (as an aspiration)

8. Define index/metric /method (SMART) to assess status/impact

9. Identify appropriate target/ baseline/reference (to be reached) for indicators and methods

But CC is mentioned very little

Need to account for moving baselines, to include inherent and increasing variability; hence signal:noise are more difficult to detect

See text

MSFD is related to EnMP and ExUP of inputs (e.g. nutrients) but excludes the ExUP of CC

For targets for knowledge, pressure, state change & impact; need to ensure they can change/be adapted if required re. response to CC

But are these realistic/achievable if there are shifting baselines?

But there could be exemptions if an indicator is not responsive or is masked by CC

See text

But the system is changing because of CC

As box below but also need feedback loop to revise measures if not successful

To control cause & consequence of EnMP but only consequences of ExUP

But there is the problem of assessing status and GEnS against shifting baselines due to CC

Caution because of climate change (CC) Step in MSFD

implementation including DAPSI(W)R

2. Characteristics & Initial Assessment (Art. 8; Annex I)

But the characteristics are changing constantly although there are few long-term datasets

Figure 1: A conceptual model of the implementation of the MSFD (inner blue circle) together with the areas for caution as the result of global climate change (red boxes) (see text).

Art.14ofMSFDandArt.2ofWFD–notmee]ngGEnSorGEcS?

14

a)  action or inaction for which the Member State concerned is not responsible,

b)  natural causes, c)  force majeure, d)  modifications or alterations to the physical

characteristics of marine waters brought about by actions taken for reasons of overriding public interest which outweigh the negative impact on the environment, including any transboundary impact,

e)  natural conditions which do not allow timely improvement in the status of the marine waters concerned.

Sowhat?–thelegalrepercussions?

15

2012Assessmentreportbaseline

2012statuswithincreasedvariability

Moving Baselines (MSFD)?

Fixedbaseline2012 Extendedbaseline

Movingbaseline?

2020status

2032status

2026status

2038status

2044status

2050status

2056status

2062status

2068status

2074status

Intra- and inter-annual variability

in estuarine (juvenile) cod and whiting

densities (1981-1989)

(Elliott et al 1990)

Sowhereisthebaselineandhowisitchangingbecauseofajointeffectoftheclimatechangingandhumanimpacts?

ImpedimentstoachievingGEnSwithregardtoClimateChange(1)

18

(1) We have a good conceptual science-base but poor precise links between changes in biota and climate features; (2) Climate change produces ‘shifting baselines’ which need to be accommodated in monitoring together with ‘unbounded boundaries’; (3) Despite budget cuts, more cost-effective spatial and temporal monitoring is required otherwise there is poor predictability; (4) ‘Wicked problem’ - determine GEnS on a Descriptor-by-Descriptor basis or by 2020 vs. aggregation; will an area be ‘unhealthy’ or just different; (5) Challenge of detecting local anthropogenic change against wide climate change;

ImpedimentstoachievingGEnSwithregardtoClimateChange(2)

19

(6) Climate change-induced geographical disparity to achieving GEnS; (7) How to resolve non-achieving GEnS for the Ecosystem Services and Societal Benefits against climate change; (8) Unknown unknowns – legal challenges if climate change treated as a force majeure? (9) Challenge of making the core generic RSC indicators SMART and robust to climate change? (10) Lessons are applicable to all seas and marine directives.

TheGrandPremiseandChallengeformarinescienceandmanagementtoachievingGEnSwithregardtoClimateChange:

20

Premise: “changing systems are not a problem for the ecology as it will adjust to any new situation and create a new equilibrium, they are only a problem for society, i.e. we might not be able to obtain the societal benefits from ecosystem services that we wish to and we may not like the new ecology but eventually we will have to accept it”

www.devotes-project.eu

Grantagreementnº308392

ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sSeventhFrameworkProgrammeforresearch,technologicaldevelopmentanddemonstraZonunderthegrantagreementnº308392

DEVOTESFinalConference,October17-192016,Brussels

Challenge: “for management to deal with especially unpredictable exogenic unmanaged pressures when it cannot manage the causes but can only respond to the consequences, it has to realise what is manageable and what is not”