Intelligence Analysis &

Deliverables

Dr. Elijah EzenduFIMC, FCCM, FIIAN, FBDI, FAAFM, FSSM, MIMIS, MIAP, MITD, ACIArb, ACIPM,

PhD, DocM, MBA, CWM, CBDA, CMA, MPM, PME, CSOL, CCIP, CMC, CMgr

“More than ever, effectively seeing through or ahead of the competition is an art form (as opposed to a totally rational and structured technique), but one that is very accessible to those willing to learn its tools, techniques, and concepts. There’s a creative aspect to taking gobs of loose data and making sense out of them. Data on the competition does not come in nice, bow-wrapped, hexa-decimal packages that you can digest by spreadsheet, regression analysis, or even a well-written memo. It may appear in the form of a picture, an observation of the active crowd huddled around a trade show booth, the pregnant pause of a speaker on the podium in reaction to a tough question. The observer is the artist here. He or she needs to catch the important clues, piece this image together, and create the precious intelligence.”

- Leonard Fuld, The Secret Language of Competitive Intelligence

“Now the reason the enlightened Prince and the wise General conquer the enemy whenever they move, and their achievements surpass those of ordinary men, is foreknowledge”

- Sun Tzu

Intelligence Analysis is a context-specific scheme for assessing data thereby interpreting processes, synthesizing factuality, generating insights and actionable intelligence.

“Success for every business, whether it’s a one-person operation or a Fortune 500 corporation, increasingly depends on a timely awareness by key executives of the rapidly changing events impacting their organizations. Yet in most corporate settings, executives consistently work with massive amounts of raw data, small amounts of value-added information derived from analysis, and very little intelligence. Competitive intelligence reverses this traditional trend toward data and information and redirects it toward actionable intelligence.”

- Shaker & Gembicki, The War Room Guide to Competitive Intelligence

Analysis as a Function of the Larger Intelligent Project Cycle

Source: Craig Fleisher & Babette Bensoussan, Business and Competitive Analysis

The Intelligence Path

Data Collection in Intelligence Analysis

This is normally a two-phase process well-structured with the aid of Pareto Principle as follows.

Secondary Sources of Data

1) Directories

2) Trade Publications

3) Newspapers

4) Federal Office of Statistics

5) Magazines

6) Journals

7) Newsletters

8) Transcripts of Speeches

9) Industry Periodicals

10)Regulatory Filings

11)Government Statements and Reports

12)Annual Reports

13)Analyst Reports

14)Online Databases

15)Vendor’s Promotional Material

16)Press Releases

17)Websites

18)Subscription News Feeds

Primary Sources of Data

I. Observations

II. Marketplace Surveys

III. Interview with Internal Experts, Industry Professionals, Customers, Stockbrokers, Journalists, Suppliers to the Industry, and Sources of Published Reports.

IV.Discussion Forums

V. Internet Blog

VI.Electronic Chat

Exploring Web Portals

A web portal offers a broad range of services and resources while highlighting information from various locations on the world wide web.

Types of portals include the following: Educational Portals Social Portals Management Portals Finance Portals Technology Portals Marketing Portals General Business Portals Scientific Research Portals

Examples of Finance Portals

http://www.finweb.com http://www.ameritrade.com http://www.qualisteam.com http://library.advanced.org http://www.nyse.com http://www.moneyfactory.com http://www.financecenter.com http://www.financehub.com http://www.investopedia.com http://www.financial-portal.com

Intelligence Weblog

Intelligence weblog provides access to information, wherefore users can update, add remark and recommendation based on analysis. It assembles, synthesizes and disseminates the information, while providing opportunity for interaction.

Market Blog Process

Source: Arik Johnson, Competitive Intelligence Weblogs

Frequency: Daily, Semi-Weekly, Monthly

2nd Sources: XML Newsfeed

Subjects: Companies, Markets, Geographies, Behaviours

Customers: Ranges from Salesforce to Executive Staff

Alert Thresholds: Out-of-Schedule Notifications

Search Enginesi. http://www.altavista.com

ii. http://www.google.com

iii. http://www.looksmart.com

iv. http://www.infoseek.com

v. http://www.lycos.com

vi. http://www.northernlight.com

vii. http://www.iwon.com

viii.http://www.askjeeves.com

ix. http://www.dmoz.org

x. http://www.msn.com

xi. http://www.directhit.com

xii. http://www.excite.com

xiii.http://www.go.com

xiv.http://www.hotbot.com

xv.http://www.yahoo.com

xvi.http://www.snap.com

xvii.http://www.webcrawler.com

Tasks to be Performed by CI Professionals

• •Go beyond internet searches: collect from human resources.

• • Go beyond public databases: collect hard-to-get information (e.g. private firms) from less obvious sources.

• • Go beyond competitors: analyze whole markets and industries.

• • Go beyond static analysis and current market statistics: predict change.

• • Go beyond marketing intelligence: understand finance and cost accounting.

• • Go beyond marketing, finance, and cost: understand strategy.

• • Go beyond strategy: understand risk. Source: Ben Gilad, CI Education Harvard Style?

Identifying the Problem

The Key Intelligence Topics (KIT) proposed by Jan P. Herring

Key Intelligence Questions (KIQ)

Identifying the Right Metrics

Analysts must ensure every intelligence analysis is driven by the right metrics.

Without the right metrics, the analysis would be derailed.

Metrics are key indicators of diagnostic or predictive value.

Data Source Evaluation

AvailabilityReliabilityAccuracyAccessibility

Identifying Scope of Analysis

Levels of Intelligence Analysis

i. Strategic Intelligence Analysis

ii. Tactical Intelligence Analysis

iii.Operational Intelligence Analysis

Strategic Intelligence Analysis

Trend Analysis Opportunity and Threat Analysis Impact Analysis Variance Analysis Competitor Analysis

Tactical Intelligence Analysis

Response Analysis Pattern Analysis Network-Structure Analysis

Elements in Analysis

i. Assumptions

ii. Perceptions

iii.Facts

iv.Beliefs

v. Projections

vi.Synthesis

Causes of Failure in Intelligence Analysis

I. Problem of Technique

II. Bad application of technology tool

III.Error in data collection

IV.Synthesis Error

V.Error in identification of Problem

VI.Project Mismanagement

VII.Miscommunication

What are the Information Hazards of Competitive Intelligence Information?

The objective of the Competitive Intelligence Program is to gather relevant information that is valid and accurate. Incomplete or inaccurate information may jeopardize the organization's CI efforts.

False Confirmation: There might be instances of false confirmation in which one source of data appears to confirm the data obtained from another source. In reality, there is no confirmation because one source may have obtained its data from the second source, or both sources may have received their data from a third common source.

Disinformation: The data generated may be flawed because of disinformation, which is incomplete or inaccurate information designed to mislead the organization's CI efforts.

Blowback: Blowback may occur when the company's disinformation or misinformation that is directed at the competitor contaminates its own intelligence channels or information. In all such cases, the information gathered may be inaccurate or incomplete.

Source: Yogesh Malhotra, Competitive Intelligence Programs

Four-Level Hierarchical Model of Analysis Failures

Level Nature of Problem

Individual Analyst-Level Failures

Analysis Task-Level Failures

Internal Organizational-Level Failures

External Environmental-Level Failures

Different natural analytical abilitiesNaturally limited mental capacitiesNatural motivationCognitive biases and perceptual distortionInsufficient understanding and application of analysis tools and techniques

Part of larger taskTask discontinuityUnsatisfactory data inputsDisconnects from decision makingImbalance among key task facets

Some decision makers don’t understand and appreciate analysisClients cannot specify their critical intelligence needs or questionsUnder-resourcing the analysis functionLack of analysis-specific IT supportLack of thinking timeOrganizational culture and politicsTime and trustInvisibility and mysteryMisconception that everyone can do analysis

Growing range of competitive factorsComplexity and turbulenceData overloadGlobalizationEducational deficiencies

Source: Craig Fleisher & Babette Bensoussan, Business and Competitive Analysis

“The best intelligence in the world is of little use if it is not presented in a manner that makes it credible, compelling and relevant for senior executives.”

- Outward Insights

Key Deliverables of Intelligence Analysis

Competitor Profiles Customer Profiles Technology Profiles Supplier Profiles Early Warning Alerts Strategic Impact Reports Situation Analysis Reports Intelligence Newsletter Annual Intelligence Reports Generic Intelligence Reports Due Diligence

Ten Commandments of Competitive Intelligence 

1. Do not lie when representing yourself.

2. Observe your company’s legal guidelines.

3. Do not secretly record an interview if it is against the law.

4. Do not issue a bribe.

5. Do not use eavesdropping devices.

6. Do not mislead anyone in an interview.

7. Do not swap price information or capacity with a competing company.

8. Do not distribute or exchange misinformation.

9. Do not steal a trade secret.

10. Do not knowingly pump someone for information that could sacrifice that person’s job or reputation.

Source: Fuld and Company

Dr. Elijah Ezendu is Award-Winning Business Expert & Certified Management Consultant with expertise in HR, OD, Competitive Intelligence, Strategy, Restructuring, Business Development, Sales & Marketing, Interim Management, CSR, Leadership, Project & Programme Management, Cost Management, Outsourcing, Franchising, Intellectual Capital, eBusiness, Social Media, Software Architecture, Cloud Computing, eLearning & International Business. He holds proprietary rights of various systems. He is currently CEO, Rubiini (UAE); Hon. President, Worldwide Independent Inventors Association; Special Advisor, RTEAN; Director, MMNA Investments Limited. He had functioned as Chair, International Board of GCC Business Council (UAE); Senior Partner, Shevach Consulting; Chairman (Certification & Training), Coordinator (Board of Fellows), Lead Assessor & Governing Council Member, Institute of Management Consultants, Nigeria; Lead Resource, Centre for Competitive Intelligence Development; Turnaround Project Director, Consolidated Business Holdings Limited; Lead Consultant/ Partner, JK Michaels; Technical Director, Gestalt; Chief Operating Officer, Rohan Group; Executive Director (Various Roles), Fortuna, Gambia & Malta; Director, The Greens; Chief Advisor/Partner, D & E; Vice Chairman, Refined Shipping; Director of Programmes & Governing Council Member, Institute of Business Development, Nigeria; Member of TDD Committee, International Association of Software Architects, USA; Member of Strategic Planning and Implementation Committee, Chartered Institute of Personnel Management of Nigeria; Adjunct Faculty, Regent Business School, South Africa; Adjunct Faculty, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Nigeria; Editor-in-Chief & Chairman of Editorial Board, Cost Management Journal; National Executive Council Member, Institute of Internal Auditors of Nigeria; Member, Board of Directors (Several Organizations). He holds Doctoral Degree in Management, Master of Business Administration and Fellowship of Several Professional Institutes in North America, UK & Nigeria. He is an author & widely featured speaker in workshops, conferences & retreats. He was involved in developing Specialist Master’s Degree Course Content for Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (Nigeria) and Jones International University (USA). He holds Interim Management Assignments on Boards of Companies as Non-Executive Director.

Thank You