INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING

FOR POLICE DECISION-MAKERS

by Deborah Osborne © 2009

Audio is at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Deborah-Osborne/2009/09/23/Intelligence-Led-Policing-for-

Decision-Makers-Webinar

Why ILP?

“So if 9/11 happened in a Web 1.0 world, terrorists are certainly in a Web 2.0 world now.  And many of the technological tools that expedite communication today were in their infancy or didn't even exist in 2001. ”  

Janet Napolitano, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, from her July 29, 2009 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations

What is Intelligence?

The Intelligence Elephant

A Fable

Six blind men encounter an elephant. The first blind man touches the elephant's leg, and he says an elephant is like a pillar. The second blind man touches the elephant's tail, and he says, no, an elephant is like a rope. The third blind man touches the elephant's trunk, and he says you're both crazy; an elephant is just like a tree branch. The fourth blind man touches the elephant's ear, and says he is certain that an elephant is like a hand held fan. The fifth man touches the elephant's belly, and he insists that an elephant is like a wall. The sixth man touches the elephant's tusk, and he says, you are all wrong—an elephant is like a solid pipe!

The Fable Continued…

The men were arguing about the elephant when a sighted man came along and asked them what was wrong. After they each told him what the elephant was like, he said, "You're all correct! An elephant has all the features you describe."

Intelligence

HUMINT, OSINT, COMINT, SIGINT etc Top Secret, LE sensitive, Open Source Surveillance, wiretaps, informants Files on criminals & organized crime activities Field intelligence Arrest records, parole, probation Crime incidents, calls for service, tip lines Maps, statistics, geography/frequency pattern analysis Analysis of patterns of weapons, targets, stolen goods,

victims Modus Operandi analysis Activity flow analysis

Elephant Problems

Lack of total situational awareness Lack of mobility and functionality Lack of language to communicate Lack of ability to perceive reality Fear of the elephant by larger society Fear of change Territorialism Solving only parts of problems rather

than whole problems

Planning

CollectionCollection

Planning

EvaluationEvaluation

CollationAnalysis

Dissemination

Re-evaluation

Intelligence Cycle

Consider the Cycle

PLANNING COLLECTION

Planning and direction involves decision-makers setting tactical and strategic goals

Asking the right REALISTIC questions matters

Planning and direction are not mentioned in the traditional crime analysis cycle

Some of the best analysis involves unplanned analysis

Quality and relevancy of information/data collection matters – we can’t analyze what has not been collected

Gaps in collection will be uncovered and should be addressed

Much of the data needed is already collected – but is untapped by analysts due to lack of knowledge, tools, imagination, training, and adequate staffing

Consider Cycle

EVALUATION COLLATION

Evaluating the information/data collected for reliability, accuracy and relevance is crucial

Identification of collection gaps occurs here

Good communication with collectors is needed

Sorting the information/data to answer the right intelligence questions can be time-consuming

Sometimes we overlook problems that involve multiple crime types or groups

Technology helps immensely here – but data accuracy is needed to enhance effectiveness

Consider the Cycle

ANALYSIS DISSEMINATION

Analysis means breaking apart into pieces to study the parts

Synthesis occurs here as the analyst puts the parts into a new “whole” so that something new and useful is created – relevant analytical product

Beware of the “if I have a hammer everything is a nail” syndrome

Intelligence that does not get to the right people in a timely manner is useless

Dissemination requires clear policies regarding who gets what

Dissemination to other agencies can be very effective in creating goodwill as well as combating crime

Consider the Cycle

RE-EVALUATION RETURN TO CYCLE

Did the analytical product pass the “so-what” test? How can it be improved?

Did the tactics and strategies to address the problem, employed by the decision-maker as a result of the analysis, work?

Do we need to modify our actions?

What else do we need to know?

Did we find a new problem?

The cycle usually involves going backwards and forward over and over again

Analytical products should be updated and tracked

Tactics and strategies put into place as a result of the analysis should be tracked

New problems will arise and should be addressed

ILP for Local LE

“The second layer is local law enforcement.  And if you go out one ring from individuals and the private sector, you have 780,000 law enforcement officials across 18,000 state, local and tribal law enforcement agencies.  Let me just say those numbers again:  780,000 across 18,000 departments.  These men and women play an absolutely critical role, because they are the ones that can act on information they receive from individuals in the community, from their own observations, or from the intelligence community itself.  But the ability of state and local officials, as well as the private sector, to prepare for threats and to respond to a disaster is only as good as their ability to receive useful information, understand what it means and act upon it effectively. “Janet Napolitano, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Intelligence-led Policing

Intelligence-led policing is a business model and managerial philosophy where data analysis and crime intelligence are pivotal to an objective, decision-making framework that facilitates crime and problem reduction, disruption and prevention through both strategic management and effective enforcement strategies that target prolific and serious offenders.

Source: Ratcliffe, JH (2008) 'Intelligence-Led Policing' (Willan Publishing: Cullompton, Devon).

The 3 i’s Cycle

Two Main Strategies

TARGETING THE 6% PROBLEM ANALYSIS

How do we identify the 6% of criminals who commit 60% of crime ?

How do we target the 6% of criminals who commit 60% of crime ?

Example: Why are some drug “markets” in the same place for decades in your town?

What works and doesn’t work in addressing chronic crime problems?

Laws of Intelligence

#1 “The most reliable indicator of future criminal activity is current criminal activity.”

#2 “Intelligence that does not influence a decision-maker is not intelligence.” (Ratcliffe 2009)

Tasking & Coordination

Recognizing that different levels of policing have differing missions

The local intelligence requirement must address crime and disorder at the local level

The regional intelligence requirement must address criminal activity that crosses jurisdictions

The federal intelligence requirement is dependent on the mission of the particular agency

Tasking analysts based on appropriate intelligence requirements is mandatory for ILP

Recognizing the needs of various levels is often absent from ILP strategies in the US because they come from top down requirements

Understanding Analytical Techniques & Products

The Analytical Divide

“CRIME ANALYSIS” FOCUS “INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS” FOCUS

Crime incident analysis

911 calls analysis Statistical analysis Geographic analysis MO analysis Local focus

Associate analysis Financial analysis Communications

analysis Commodities

analysis Threat analysis State and federal

focusWe need integration and collaboration for improved situational awareness…

Collaboration Is

joining together to make possible that which cannot be accomplished alone. That is, collaboration allows partners to reach an aspiration that would be impossible to achieve without each member of the team working toward the same end. It requires the partnership and the commitment of all members working toward a common goal to succeed. www.collaborativejustice.org

It requires leadership and vision…

Collaboration is Not These Things

Networking is best described as exchanging information (i.e., agencies may meet to inform one another of their procedures, processes, restrictions, resources, and guidelines);

Coordinating involves making slight alterations to activities to accommodate the needs of another (i.e., one agency might change their hours so that they have staff available to receive referrals from another agency); and

Cooperating entails the sharing of resources (i.e., one agency may provide office space while another provides staff so that services can be co–located).

Stages of ILP Development

Stages of Becoming an Intelligence Led AgencyReactive

Relies on Gut FeelingsDevelops the Individual

Identifies with InstitutionsLearns and Takes Risks

Combines Logic and IntuitionHolistic and Adaptive

Stage One: Reactive

• many police agencies are in this stage

• run to calls, investigate, do your best

• no analytical support

• little understanding of the value of crime intelligence analysis

• random impact on the criminal environment

Stage Two: Relies on Gut Feeling

• agencies with unsophisticated or inadequate analytical capacities

• generally rely on traditional policing based on trusting past experiences at the gut feeling level

• random impact on the criminal environment

Stage Three: Develops the Individual

• agencies that allow individual officers and analysts the freedom to study problems and develop responses

• supports creativity in problem-solving and long-term projects by select individuals

• work is thus more isolated and limited by individual initiative and time/energy constraints

• some targeted impact on criminal environment – not sustained

Stage Four: Learns and Takes Risks

• have engaged in some wide-spread problem oriented policing projects/grant-funded initiatives• have developed some broad-based analytical capacities and learned from them• continue to experiment with innovation on a

limited basis, focused on a few problems• analysts provide basic analytical products and support as needed• impact on the criminal environment in a few areas, not sustained if funding ends/leadership changes

Stage Five: Identifies with Institutions

• implements Compstat and/or POP• meets regularly and analyze current crime problems tactically and/or specifically• use of intelligence and crime analysis information embedded in the work, not often strategic• more focus is on the immediate problems compared to the chronic problems • analysis may be diluted by adherence to strictly defined procedures/missions• recognized impact on criminal environment but

still lack of strategic focus

Stage Six: Combines Logic and Intuition

• realizes the value of crime intelligence analysis, combining crime analysis with intelligence, quantitative information/qualitative information• uses the street knowledge of officers and investigators, incorporates with analytical info• analysis is a valued commodity to inform decision-making at the level of the working officer as well as the top decision-makers• lasting short-term and long-term impact on the criminal environment

Stage Seven: Holistic and Adaptive Agencies

• develops intelligence with all relevant sources• forms and maintain strategic partnerships -

shares• identifies/addresses chronic problems/worst offenders• crime intel analysis central to decision-making • invest in quality & sufficient analytical staff – provide the technology and training needed• analysts and decision-makers collaborate• significant impact to the criminal environment, short-term and long-term, collaborate in problem- solving with those outside the jurisdiction with shared crime and criminal problems

Fusion Centers are a Beginning

“We've now moved three dozen intelligence analysts out to the field.  In other words, as we build the fusion centers, we need to move analytic capacity from the Beltway to the country.  So let's -- how this is used. And I'll take it out of the terrorism context for just a moment.  That if a law enforcement agency reports an increase in drug seizures of a particular type, that is a data point.  That's a piece of intelligence.  But a whole range of agencies working together in a particular fusion center can analyze that trend to understand what it means, how it will affect particular neighborhoods, and whether it foretells something even larger on the horizon. “  Janet Napolitano, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

The Future of Decision-Making

Tomorrow’s police leaders will understand the potential of technology (Web 2.0)

They won’t settle for I-don’t-know They will be more collaborative They will be more networked They won’t be leaders for another 10-20

years Until then, the criminals will have the

advantage – they are already connected, have hi-tech resources and the power to use them

ILP RESOURCESAvailable Online

http://www.jratcliffe.net/ilp

www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/topics/ilp

http://www.it.ojp.gov/global

http://www.it.ojp.gov/global

http://www.kiernan-group.com/resources-policing.htm

http://www.popcenter.org/

Problem Analysis Module

CONSIDER THIS: WILBUR WRIGHT DIDN’T HAVE A PILOT’S LICENSE.

Questions?

Thank you!www.analystscorner.com