intelligence sector reform in bosnia and herzegovina – a five year perspective – theoretical...
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Intelligence Sector Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina
– a Five Year Perspective –
Theoretical approach to Intelligence Service,
June 8, 2009
Contents
• Discipline
• Course of Action: ideal types
• Limits and Quality of Analyses
• American Conditions
• Discussions
Intelligence and other disciplines
Locus and focus of intelligence studies: a comparison Intelligence
studies Political sciences
Law
economy
locus
Security, threats and
risks
Public policy Conflict distribution of productive income
and capacity
focus
Anticipation Power What ought to be
scarcity
A new developing discipline
Intelligence studies as a discipline
Element discipline
Already known/developed?
locus
yes: security, threat and risks
focus
Yes: anticipation
definitions/ concepts
yes: many definitions of key concepts are formulated; some general agreement on concepts
methods hardly any arrangement in the choice and use of methods;
White spots/methods need to be developed
development of theory
no explicit theory; body of knowledge: based on intuition and experience, not formulated explicitly
Characteristics discipline(knowledge & institutional)
• Interdisciplinary
• Future oriented
• Inaccessible data
• Low chance – high impact
• Specific and applied nature
• Position as supplier
• Control is complicated
Contents
• Discipline
• Course of Action: ideal types
• Limits and Quality of Analyses
• American conditions
• Discussions
Specific & Applied:Serving a Course of Action
Ideal Types:
Comprehensive & Kinetic Approach
Instruments DIMEF/L: diplomatic; intelligence; military; economic; financial; law enforcement
Comprehensive
• Besides DIMEF/L, also explicitely culture, education, etc.
• No dominance M. Different tracks in connection: security, stability, governance, reconstruction
Kinetic
•DIMEF/L
• Lessons M mainly tactical & operational
• Less strategic understanding
• Less general use & interaction instruments
Grievances/Root causes
Comprehensive • What are grievances/root
causes of opponents?• Can we meet these?• What are the
consequences if we meet these?
Kinetic • Possible bias zero-sum
gain • If grievances/root causes
are not recognized: action may worsen situation
• Less overall view in which own action is taken into analysis
Concentric circles:HC: hard core. F: facilitators. S: sympathisers
Comprehensive • No negotiations HC• Primary aim: no
successor generations• F & S: to win back for
democratic legal order• F & S: no prosecution,
including for recruitment• Through F & S: infiltrate
HC & control violence in cells
Kinetic • To prosecute HC, F & S• F & S: tendency to inward isolation• Measuring success: killer-capture
statistics
Contents
• Discipline
• Course of Action: ideal types
• Limits and Quality of Analyses
• American conditions
• Discussions
Interdisciplinary &
Future Oriented:
No full-grown discipline:
Limits of Use of Prognostic Methods
Prognostic research:methods and techniques
• Modelling based on accepted theories, simulation (developing discipline: hardly theory). Only applicable in sub-disciplines of intelligence: politics, economic, etc.
• Expert judgements (Delphi)
• Scenario building (impact/uncertainty)
• Trend exploration
Organization & Quality
Quality costs money:
• Feedback by own team
• Devil’s Advocate
• Review Section
• Robustness
http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/288143639
Contents
• Discipline
• Course of Action: ideal types
• Limits and Quality of Analyses
• American conditions
• Discussions
Knowing the Terrorist
By: Neri Jimenez
Identifying a Terrorist
(Jimenez)
Features
• Generally brown-skin
• gender (women and men)
• Unusual behavior
Knowing the Terrorists
By Eric Lozano
Famous terrorists in history
(Lozano)
• Most nations and empires• Mohammad• Roman Catholic Church
hierarchy• Hitler
Biggest terrorists today(Lozano)
• Some Muslims• Roman Catholic hierarchy
Opening the way(Lozano)
• People who don’t care• Atheists• Jehovah’s Witnesses• others
Contents
• Discipline
• Course of Action: ideal types
• Limits and Quality of Analyses
• American conditions
• Discussions
Discussions
• Comprehensive & Kinetic: 1) popular demand action & short term results; or 2) or strategic partner asks support
• Germany ’70’s (Defensible Democracy) or Dutch (Repressive Tolerance) + circumstances
• Money for Review Section – Young Promising Academics: pointing at problems, not at solutions