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Executive Summary

The market has now erased 65p and has failed to make new highs in over 3 trading weeks; it’s longest and deepest

losing streak since the November 2016 low. In addition, Monday’s strong Bradley Turn date didn’t disappoint on

Tuesday as the market erased over a month worth of gains on Tuesday: is a great buying opportunity around the

corner?!

Now as this week has ended, we’d ideally like to see the market make one more marginal lower low into our ideal

SPX2333-2326 zone by tagging on one more (Nano) wave down. However, this would be ideal but not necessary as

the market made a marginal lower low today and that’s all a 5th wave –in this case micro-5 of minute-c- is required

to do. If we do get that lower low, then we expect minor-b to take hold and travel to MAX SPX2430; and ideally

SPX2390-2400. Why MAX 2430?

Given that intermediate-ii was a zigzag we expect intermediate-iv to be a flat, which can be an irregular flat. B-waves

in irregular flats do not go beyond the 1.382x extension of their prior A-wave, which in this case would be a ~75p

minor-a; assuming a SPX2326 low. A move above SPX2430 then means SPX2480-2490 for a major 3 top is on tap. In

addition, at ~SPX2326 we’ve had a 23.6% retrace of all of intermediate-iii, which is the minimum text-book retrace

a 4th wave needs to do.

Thus the coming low, or even today’s low if that was all she wrote, can mark a tradeable low as there’s the potential

for all of intermediate-iv to be completed, and at a ~50p gain from today’s close. A >25p move higher signals the low

is in, while our daily A.I. has now given a non-ideal buy signal.

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Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC

NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. This week we added 0.64% to our coffers for a 12.12%

performance YTD, whereas the S&P500 lost 1.24% to a 4.70% performance YTD (see below). Currently we are beating

the S&P500 2.6 to 1. We were 100% cash last weekend, and are very glad we did. Through targeted trading, which

does include a few losing trades, and prudent profit taking of the winners we continue to increase our entire

portfolio-size week by week. And that’s all that matters, because as long as one does that one can only get richer.

Please contact me or Rus Chao directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free!

Please follow NPP on TWTR: @NPPtrades (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time)

Please bookmark NPP’s website: http://northpostpartners.com/ (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there)

*It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal

past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but

does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges.

S&P500

NPP

Per

form

ance

(%

gai

n)

YTD

Trading week ending

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Elliot wave updates

In the past weekend update we gave the following odds to each count we were tracking “40:40:30 (EDT vs ABS vs

impulse)”. This week the market made quickly minced meat of the EDT and impulse on Tuesday on Monday,

respectively, making our life much easier. We now are left with a much smaller problem: has all of minor-a bottomed

or can we expect one lower low. We’ll take a look at the 2-min chart of the S&P500 first, and then zoom out to the

hourly, daily and weekly charts.

From Thursday’s SPX2358 high we have what looks best as an –yes here it is again - ending diagonal triangle (EDT).

It would suggest (grey) Nano wave-e of the EDT, which consists of 5 waves: a, b, c, d, e; should be underway and

preferably target SPX2333-2326 (white box). Why? It’s where (grey) Nano-e = a, (orange) micro-5 = 2.382x to 3.000x

micro-1, (white) minute-c = 1.236x to 1.382x minute-a, the (red) 1.236x intermediate-i Fib-extension resides, and

the (purple) 23.6% retrace of all of intermediate-iii resides. Thus we have many different Fib-extensions and retraces

of many different wave degrees convolute in this area. That’s a lot of what we call “weight of the evidence”.

Figure 1. SPX 2min chart: one lower low into the SPX2333-2325 zone would be ideal, but not necessary

This target zone, which we’ve had all week, continues to fit well with our ideal wave-tracker table (see table 1);

where the aforementioned 1.236 and 1.382x Fib-extensions are shown in yellow. As we stated on Wednesday; we’d

really like to see this c-wave get within +/- 2p of these targets. So far still no cigar.

Table 1. Ideal Minor-a target zones.

However, please note there are now enough waves in place to call it a bottom as all a 5th wave needs to do is

make a lower low, which is what we got today. So please be very carefully trying to trade these last scribbles.

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The hourly chart below shows better the 5 waves down from the SPX2390 high. In this case the market decided to

make it a 5-wave c-wave. That’s fine, just hard to predict and count on in our opinion as correction can be all 3s or

set of 5s and 3s. One never knows beforehand. Hence, why we prefer price target zones. And so far so good. The

red arrows continue to depict the wave extensions shown in Table 1, with the c=a (shortest) extension of course

already surpassed.

Also this chart shows that trying to bet on the last few scribbles down is going to be very tricky. Instead, it’s better

to focus on your “long wish list”.

Figure 2. SPX hourly chart. Renewed positive divergence in hourly RSI5, price in ideal target zone (green box)

Since micro 4 was 25p, we now need to see price gain >25p to add additional weight to the evidence the low is in.

However, other indicators, such as the daily A.I. (see next page) and market breadth will help support this notion

as well and hopefully already prior. Regardless, the SPX2340-2320 zone remains a good buying zone for swing

traders.

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Technical Market update

Last week’s tight Bollinger Bands suggested a large move was coming our way, which was once again correct as the

market erased over a month worth of gains. The correction has now been ongoing for over 3 trading weeks, which

is the longest since the low made in November 2016. Since that low was intermediate-ii, it’s logical to conclude

without even looking at the internal waves this is a correction of the same degree: intermediate-iv. Price is now

firmly below the 20d SMA, and right at black trend line support. Next support is now at the 50d SMA and the 23.6%

retrace (as shown in Figure 1): SPX2325-2330; which is in line with our prior analyses. Note the daily A.I. is turning

back up, but didn’t give an ideal buy signal as the purple TI remained below the 20 threshold, suggesting the coming

move up is minor-b. However, a 4th wave’s minimum requirement is a 23.6% retrace of the prior 3rd wave. Given that

the market is now oversold, it could very well be that all of intermediate-iv is in. We expect intermediate-iv to be a

flat correction and since b-waves do not travel beyond 1.382x wave-a in an irregular flat, we can set a threshold

assuming a SPX2326 low (a=75p): BMAX = 2326 + 1.382x 75 = 2430. A move above it means intermediate-v is underway

targeting SPX2480-2490.

Figure 3. SPX daily chart. TIs are weak, no confirmed buy signals. But 20d SMA continues to hold as support.

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If we look at the weekly chart of the S&P500 we see that the seriously overbought conditions on the RSI5 have been

worked off by the past 3 weeks. The weekly A.I. remains on a sell, and will only turn back up on a move/close

>SPX2400. Given the recent peak MFI14 readings (lots of money has been flowing into the market) we can be rather

certain that the uptrend continues (compare with early-2013 and mid-2014). This notions of higher price over the

longer term is also supported by how the weekly SMAs are aligned: all are pointing up and all are bullishly stacked

(20>50>100>150>200).

Figure 4. SPX weekly TI chart. TIs working off overbought conditions; all point down.

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Market breadth

The McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPX-MO) has remained negative for most of March and also ended negative

on Friday. Note the MO’s for the NASDAQ, NDX and NYA all improved on Friday, but also remain negative: more

stocks are still declining than advancing. The SPX-SI (summation index of the SPX-MO) therefore remains on a sell,

but is now oversold per its RSI14. Downside is likely and therefore going to be limited. But we need positive market

breadth readings to signal the low is in and have the SI turn back up. Until then: down it is.

Figure 5. SPX-MO remains negative and as such the SPX-SI remains on a sell

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Miscellaneous

Our long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long term investing) continues

to be 100% bullish: the long term trend remains up; even with the current 17 days long correction, which should not

change this chart at all (see 2014 example). Major 4 may start to put a dent in it. As such this chart continues to

support our overall view of the market and where it will head over the next several months. Our short term chart

(ST-SMA, for traders to swing traders) dropped to around 60% bullish, supporting the ongoing correction. Just before

the market bottoms we expect it to be <50% bullish.

Figure 6. LT-SMA chart 100% bullish ST-SMA chart 60% Bullish.

Below is how a 100% bullish chart look likes, everything points up. Price > fastest SMAs > slowest SMAs.

The “Ebola scare” correction

in 2014 didn’t even register

on the LT chart!

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All Bradley Turn Dates for 2017

January 18 (50/100 Long Terms Power)

January 30 (55/100 Middle Terms Power)

March 20 (100/100 Long Terms Power)

April 3 (31/100 Declinations Power)

April 17 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

April 19 (59/100 Middle Terms Power)

April 29 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power

May 5 (30/100 Declinations Power)

June 9 (61/100 Long Terms Power)

June 21 (100/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

June 30 (100/100 Declinations Power)

July 4 (100/100 Middle Terms Power)

August 19 (17/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

September 5 (17/100 Declinations Power)

September 7 (29/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

October 7 (48/100 Middle Terms Power)

December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power)

ALOHA

Soul, Ph.D.

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