intelligent syatem

8/3/2019 Intelligent Syatem

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McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All rights reserved

©2005 The McGraw-HillCompanies,

All rights reservedMcGraw-Hill/Irwin



McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All rights reserved

CHAPTER 4

DECISION SUPPORT ANDARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE

Brainpower for YourBusiness



4-3

OPENING CASE STUDY

• A DSS to Keep Auto Workers’ Health up and

Costs down • Providing the best health care at the lowest

cost is a complex type of problem

• In 2002, GM spent $4.5 billion on workers’health care

• Auto workers’ health care is the best in theworld



4-4

OPENING CASE STUDY

• GM uses a decision support system to find

the best care at the best cost for its workers• The company combines heath care

information and worker productivity reports toanalyze the workers’ needs

• Decision support can help business with allsorts of decisions



4-5

STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES

1. Define decision support system, list its

components, and identify the type ofapplication it’s suited to

2. Define geographic information systems and

state how they differ from other decisionsupport systems



4-6


3. Define artificial intelligence and list the

different types that are used in businesses4. Define expert systems and describe the

types of problems to which they are

applicable


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5. Define neural networks, their uses, and a

major strength and weakness of these AIsystems

6. Define genetic algorithms and list the

concepts on which they are based and thetypes of problems they solve




7. Define artificial agents and list the different

types that are used in businesses



INTRODUCTION

• Computer-aided decision support



DECISIONS, DECISIONS, DECISIONS

• Phases of decision making

– Intelligence – find or recognize a problem, need,or opportunity

– Design – consider possible ways of solving theproblem

– Choice – weigh the merits of each solution

– Implementation – carry out the solution



Four Phases of Decision Making



Types of Decisions You Face

• Structured decision – processing a certain

information in a specified way so that you willalways get the right answer

• Nonstructured decision – one for which

there may be several “right” answers, withouta sure way to get the right answer



What Job Do I Take?



Types of Decisions You Face

• Recurring decision – one that happens

repeatedly• Nonrecurring (ad hoc) decision – one you

make infrequently



DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• Decision support system (DSS) – a highly

flexible and interactive system that isdesigned to support decision making whenthe problem is not structured

• Decision support systems help you analyze,

but you must know how to solve the problem,and how to use the results of the analysis



Alliance between You and a DSS



Components of a DSS

• Model management component – consists

of both the DSS models and the modelmanagement system

• Data management component – stores andmaintains the information that you want your

DSS to use• User interface management component –

allows you to communicate with the DSS



Components of a DSS



San Diego in GIS Software



ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

• Artificial intelligence (AI) – the science of

making machines imitate human thinking andbehavior

• Robot – a mechanical device equipped with

simulated human senses and the ability totake action on its own



4-22

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

• Types of AI systems used in business

– Expert systems – Neural networks

– Genetic algorithms

– Intelligent agents• AI systems deliver the conclusion (rather than

helping you analyze the options)



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EXPERT SYSTEMS

• Expert (knowledge-based) system – an

artificial intelligence system that appliesreasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion

• Used for

– Diagnostic problems (what’s wrong?) – Prescriptive problems (what to do?)



4-24

Traffic Light Expert System



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Components of an Expert System

1. Information Types

– Domain expertise –

how to solve the problem – “Why?” information – explains the questions

– Problem facts – the current situation

2. People

– Domain expert –

the expert in that field

– Knowledge engineer – the computer expert

– Knowledge worker – the user



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Components of an Expert System

3. IT Components

• Knowledge acquisition – used to enterrules

• Explanation module – where explanationsare kept

• User interface – the part the user uses• Inference engine – applies the logic

• Knowledge base – where rules are kept



4-27

Developing and Using an ExpertSystem



4-28

What Expert Systems Can and Can’tDo

• An expert system can

– Reduce errors – Improve customer service

– Reduce cost

• An expert system can’t – Use common sense

– Automate all processes



4-29

NEURAL NETWORKS

• Neural network (artificial neural network

or ANN) – an artificial intelligence systemthat is capable of finding and differentiatingpatterns



4-30

The Layers of a Neural Network



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Neural Networks Can…

• Learn and adjust to new circumstances on

their own• Take part in massive parallel processing

• Function without complete information

• Cope with huge volumes of information• Analyze nonlinear relationships



4-32

GENETIC ALGORITHMS

• Genetic algorithm – an artificial intelligence

system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest process to generate increasinglybetter solutions to a problem



4-33

Evolutionary Principles of GeneticAlgorithms

1. Selection – or survival of the fittest or

giving preference to better outcomes2. Crossover – combining portion of good

outcomes to create even better outcomes

3. Mutation – randomly trying combinationsand evaluating the success of each



4-34

Genetic Algorithms Can…

• Take thousands or even millions of possible

solutions and combining and recombiningthem until it finds the optimal solution



4-35

INTELLIGENT AGENTS

• Intelligent agent – software that assists you,

or acts on your behalf, in performingrepetitive computer-related tasks

– Buyer agents or shopping bots

– User or personal agents – Monitoring-and surveillance agents

– Data-mining agents



4-36

Buyer Agents

• Buyer agent or shopping bot – an

intelligent agent on a Web sites that helpsyou, the customer, find products and servicesyou want



4-37

User Agents

• User agent or personal agent – intelligent

agent that takes action on your behalf• Examples: – Prioritize e-mail

– Act as gaming partner

– Assemble customized news reports – Fill out forms for you

– “Discuss” topics with you



4-38

Monitoring-and-Surveillance Agents

• Monitoring-and-surveillance (predictive)

agents – intelligent agents that observe andreport on equipment.



4-39

Data-Mining Agents

• Data-mining agent – operates in a data

warehouse discovering information



4-40

CAN YOU…

1. Define decision support system, list its

components, and identify the type ofapplication it’s suited to

2. Define geographic information systems andstate how they differ from other decisionsupport systems



4-41

CAN YOU …

3. Define artificial intelligence and list the

different types that are used in businesses4. Define expert systems and describe the

types of problems to which they areapplicable



4-42

CAN YOU…

5. Define neural networks, their uses, and a

major strength and weakness of these AIsystems

6. Define genetic algorithms and list theconcepts on which they are based and thetypes of problems they solve



4-43

CAN YOU…

7. Define artificial agents and list the different

types that are used in businesses



CHAPTER 4

End of Chapter 4

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