inter- and intra-annual variability of ndvi and ...€¦ · spring and fall. inter- and...

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Uma S. Bhatt, [email protected] Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, U. Alaska Fairbanks D.A. Walker, M.K. Raynolds, P. A. Bieniek, H. E. Epstein, J. C. Comiso, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, M. A. Steele, W. Ermold, & J. Zhang Arctic Biomass Workshop Fairbanks, Alaska, Tuesday September 2, 2014 • Warming has flattened out and NDVI is declining in spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea ice, snow and cloud cover Tundra, Subzone A, Franz Josef Land Skip Walker, Dept. Biology UAF

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Page 1: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Uma S. Bhatt, [email protected] Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences,

U. Alaska Fairbanks

D.A. Walker, M.K. Raynolds, P. A. Bieniek, H. E. Epstein, J. C. Comiso, J. E. Pinzon, C. J.

Tucker, M. A. Steele, W. Ermold, & J. Zhang

Arctic Biomass Workshop

Fairbanks, Alaska, Tuesday September 2, 2014

•  Warming has flattened out and NDVI is declining in spring and fall.

Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns,

sea ice, snow and cloud cover

Tundra, Subzone A, Franz Josef Land Skip Walker, Dept. Biology UAF

Page 2: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Mean MaxNDVI (82-10) linked to Mean Sea Ice

Main PanArctic hypothesis: Periods of reduced sea ice should correspond to warmer land temperatures and more rapid greening.

Mean MaxNDVI

[Bhatt et al. 2010]

80% of the Arctic tundra (3.2 million km2) < 100km from ocean

Page 3: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Remote sensing data & methods •  Data: 1982-2013 (32 yrs, weekly) •  Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration (25km) •  AVHRR Land Surface Temp. (25-km) SWI, [Comiso 2003] •  Gimms NDVI 3g+ (Max and Integrated) (14-km) Version that is

corrected for Arctic, TI-NDVI [Pinzon et al. 2014]

•  Divided Arctic Ocean (Treshnikov, 1985) to examine trends and variability in full tundra land domains •  Reanalysis Sea Level Pressure •  Globsnow

Russia

Alaska

Canada

Page 4: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Trends 1982-2013 Open Water (May-Aug) magnitude change (%) Summer Warmth Index percent change (%)

More Open Water & Nearby Land Warms

Page 5: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

More warmth ==> Greener Arctic Tundra

MaxNDVI percent change (%) TI-NDVI percent change (%) Trends 1982-2013

Page 6: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Summer Warmth increases have slowed!

Page 7: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

TI-NDVI increases have slowed!

Page 8: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

MaxNDVI increases continue!

Page 9: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

SWI 82-98 SWI 99-13

SWI declining over recent period!

Page 10: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Summer Sea Level Pressure (SLP)

SLP change Long term average 1999-2011 vs 1982-1998 1982-2011

H L

L

L

below average

above average

Climatology [Bhatt et al. 2013]

Page 11: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

MaxNDVI 82-98 MaxNDVI 99-13

MaxNDVI trends stronger over recent period!

Page 12: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

TI-NDVI 99-13 TI-NDVI 82-98

TI-NDVI declining over recent period!

Page 13: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Ts Spring/Fall warming & Mid-summer cooling 1982-2013

1982-98 1999-13

Page 14: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

MaxNDVI Spring/Fall decline & Peak increase 1982-2013

1982-98 1999-13

Page 15: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Jun

1999-2013 1982-1998 Ju

l A

ug

SWI changing trends within

season

•  Alaska •  Taymyr •  Canadian Arch. •  July-August consistent with SLP trends

Page 16: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Jun

1999-2013 1982-1998 Ju

l A

ug

TI-NDVI changing

trends within season

•  June declines throughout domain •  July increases stronger & declines stronger

Page 17: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

•  Cooling in summer?

What could be affecting the trends?

•  Clouds

• More clouds due to more moisture

•  Declines of Biweekly MaxNDVI in spring & fall

•  Delayed growing season start

•  Snow!

Page 18: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

SWI-SLP correlations Jun-Aug:Large-scale

Arctic SWI 82-13

N.Hemisphere

Eurasia

Page 19: Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and ...€¦ · spring and fall. Inter- and intra-annual variability of NDVI and correlations to large-scale circulation patterns, sea

Summary • Moisture is likely important in this changing NDVI story. • Need good snow data • Large-scale climate

NH JJA SLP trends 82-13

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