Interagency Strategic

Research Plan for

Tropical Cyclones:

The Way Ahead

Dr. Frank MarksNOAA OAR/AOML/HRD

March 6, 2007

• Key Findings and Recommendations

– Data Collection & Research

• NOAA Research to Support Chapter 5 Priorities

Overview

Key Findings & Recommendations

• Data collection

– Significant gaps in meeting observation requirements

• Remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds (e.g., QuikSCAT)

• Accurate measurement of 3-D global wind field

• Satellite altimetry: JAG/TCR strongly endorses acquisition of an altimeter instrument as an alternative to the cancelled NPOESS ALT

JAG/TCR strongly supports R&D to help meet reqmts

– Through the OFCM infrastructure, need to develop a strategic plan for improved TC recon & surveillance (manned, unmanned, space-based)

• Consider observations and observing strategies for forecaster needs initialization of advanced hurricane models, and NWP model diagnostics & verification

Key Findings & Recommendations

• Tropical cyclone research

– Section 5.1 and Table 5-1: atmospheric / oceanic-related priorities

– Section 5.2: Climate (interseasonal, interannual, and longer-term variability)

– Section 5.3 and Appendix P: social sciences

• JAG/TCR recommends:

– Strong support for activities focused on research identified in Chapter 5

– Social science research be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program

– Through OFCM infrastructure, development of a 10-year, multiagency research implementation plan

• Outline specific strategies to address research priorities

Key Findings & Recommendations

Research Topics

Type of Research B = Basic; A =Applied

General Research and NWP Modeling Topics

1. Role of inner core processes on intensity and structure changes (e.g., eyewall replacement cycles, mixing).

B

2. Relative role of vortex versus environment in influencing intensity and structure (e.g., role of vortex mixing and resiliency [vortex Rossby waves and stability]).

B,A

3. Role of rainbands on intensity and structure changes. B

4. Role of dry air, midlevel easterly jet, and suspended mineral dust from Saharan Air Layer on intensity and structure changes.

B,A

5. Role of vertical shear of horizontal wind on intensity and structure changes. B,A

6. Tropical cyclone genesis. B,A

7. Determinants of structure and relationship with preexisting wave disturbance; relationship between structure and intensity.

B

8. Role of ocean; role of oceanic heat content. B,A

9. Physics a. Relative importance of physics (e.g., air-sea fluxes, microphysics, convection) on intensity and

structure changes in various environments (e.g., sheared vs. non-shear) b. Processes within atmosphere-ocean boundary layer on intensity/structure changes; role of

boundary layer wind structure on the transfer of energy and mass. c. Role of radiation and interaction of radiation with microphysics. d. Role of vortex-scale moisture convergence and cloud microphysics in precipitation processes. e. Role of landfall effects on intensity, structure, and precipitation processes.

f. Resolution studies (considering a-e above) to determine what scales can be explicitly resolved.

B,A

Key Findings & RecommendationsNWP Model Development Topics

1. Tropical cyclone vortex initialization; ocean initialization A

2. Atmosphere-ocean boundary layer for coupled air-sea-wave problem; momentum (wave induced drag) and enthalpy fluxes (sea spray complexity).

B,A

3. Land surface coupling: Complexity of coupling w/HWRF; sensitivity of LSM on track, intensity and structure, precipitation

A

4. Coupling of HWRF with hydrology/inundation models. A

5. Verification for three dimensional, high-resolution NWP model for all phases of the tropical cyclone life cycle; varying atmosphere/ocean environment.

A

6. Diagnostic techniques to further increase the utility of global models (e.g., NCEP, UKMO, NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclone genesis.

A

7. Development of advanced, high-resolution probabilistic guidance (e.g., (ensembles); optimal ensemble construction and configuration; value of very high-resolution deterministic forecasts vs. ensembles

A

Observations and Observing Strategies

1. Where to take observations for initialization of hurricane vortex; what is the hurricane ŅcoreÓ circulation and how do we define?

A

2. Alternatives and tradeoffs for observing storms and their environment with in situ (e.g., buoys, aircraft) and remote sensors (e.g., satellite).

A

3. Required observations to support model diagnostics and verification (e.g., IFEX effort led by HRD).

A

4. Techniques to evaluate the uncertainty and representativeness of observations and use of observations for initializing NWP models.

A

5. New observational technologies. B,A

Built on partnerships:• National

• IFEX involving NCEP, NESDIS & NMAO, plus NSF/RAINEX, NASA/CAMEX, TCSP & NAMMA, ONR/CBLAST

• International• AMMA (EU and African countries)• Extra-tropical Transition (Canada & EU)• 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones

(IWTC-VI) sponsored by WMO - November 2006

NOAA Hurricane Research

Improve Understanding

BAMS

March 2007 CBLAST

January 2007 IFEX & RAINEX

JASspecial CAMEX issueJanuary 2006

• Improved understanding of air-sea interaction in high winds (CBLAST):– Improved drag & enthalpy flux

coefficients

– Wave impacts on surface fluxes

– Sea spray impact on surface fluxes

Improved Processes in Model

Improved Observing Systems• Airborne Doppler Radar: 2

WP-3D & G-IV Supports operational hurricane modeling objectives of NCEP

• SFMR: remote sensing instrument designed to directly estimate surface winds in hurricane

• UAS: Aerosonde Demonstration

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/doppler.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/sfmr.html

• Upper ocean observations: Altimetry

• Targeted upper ocean observations (IFEX/NSF/CBLAST/OGP): AXCP/AXCTDs/ AXBTs, Drifters & Floats

• Observations of SAL (IFEX/NAMMA): satellite TPW & aerosol, Dropsondes

NENE

SWSW

SWNE Calipso

Improved Observing Systems

This is a Major Undertaking (No Quick Fix) requiring NOAA & DOD to work closely with Universities (+UCAR/NCAR) and other Federal Agencies (NASA, NSF),and provide requirements and leadership to:

• Improve understanding of physical processes that lead to intensity/structure & track change in TCs through better use of models & observations

• Develop and test tools/technologies needed for an integrated TC forecasting system based on NWP models, DA, and observations

• Develop/test new strategies for better warnings of TC impacts (surge, wave, rain, severe wx), enabling emergency planners to provide appropriate level of preparedness

• Improve understanding of relationship of changes in TC characteristics to long term climate change

• Develop next generation of TC researchers and forecasters

Where are we at?

• Need a formal, multiagency, coordination entity to:

• Monitor & update operational needs of TC forecast warning centers

• Monitor and update research priorities to meet operational needs

• Develop 10-year, multiagency federal research implementation plan outlining specific strategies to address research priorities

• Update implementation plan at least annually

• Coordinate development/maintenance of research implementation plan within OFCM infrastructure.

• Form TC Research Working Group to maintain/publish implementation plan and provide updates at IHC annually

• TC Research Working Group members must be involved in agency programming/planning activities to insure connection to mission priorities

Recommendations