interim cg meeting copenhagen april 29, 2002 the electricity opportunity for integrating central...

INTERIMCG MEETING

CopenhagenApril 29, 2002

The Electricity Opportunityfor

Integrating Central Asia into the World Economy

Role of Energy and Transport Infrastructure

A Conference Hosted byBrookings Institution and Carnegie Endowment for International

Peacein Association with

Asian Development Bankand Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC)Raghuveer Sharma

The World BankWashington DC, October 23, 2007

INTERIMCG MEETING


Current Global ConditionsHigh Energy Prices

INTERIMCG MEETING


Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute

terms

Oil

Coal

Gas

BiomassNuclear

Other renewables

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Current Global Conditions:Growing Demand

Sou

rce:

IEA

INTERIMCG MEETING


Oil 21%

Electricity56%

Coal 3%Gas 19%

Just over half of all investment needs to 2030 are in developing countries, 18% in China alone

Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure, 2005-2030 = $20.2 trillion (in $2005)

Power generation

54%

46%

OtherRefining

73%

18%9%

LNG chainTransmission and

distribution

56%

37%

7%

Mining

Shipping & ports11%

89%

$4.3 trillion$11.3

trillion

$3.9 trillion$0.6 trillion

Biofuels 1%

Exploration & development

Transmission & distribution

Exploration & development

Current Global Conditions:Huge Investment NeedsS

ou

rce:

IEA

INTERIMCG MEETING


Half of the projected increase in emissions comes from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China

& India

Increase of 14.3 Gt (55%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2004 2010 2015 2030

billio

n to

nnes

Coal Oil Gas

Current Global Conditions:Deepening climate change

concerns

Sou

rce:

IEA

INTERIMCG MEETING


Can the Central Asian Republics contribute to, and benefit from, the

global energy conditions?

INTERIMCG MEETING


Central Asian Republics possess significant energy resources

5,400

5

2

68

82

2,700

5

5

2,610

1,674

16,000

580

507

0

2,851

24,100

590

514

2,678

4,607

Kazakhstan

The KyrgyzRepublic

TajikistanTurkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Total Fossil Fuel MTOECoal MTOE

Gas MTOE

Crude Oil MTOE

Legend

27

163

317

2

15

Hydro Potential TWh/year

INTERIMCG MEETING


Regional Market Cost-Price GapsPrivate Investor (AES) View

$10 to $40 per MWh

$65 to $120 per MWh

$8 to $30 per MWh $30 to $75 per

MWh

$25 MWh to $350 MWh

$15 to $45 per MWh

$15 to $40 per MWh

INTERIMCG MEETING


Central Asian RepublicsPower Development and Trade Strategy

Loss Reduction &Rehab. Programs

Transmission Links:North-South Project

Power Trading Capacity: Sangtuda

Lev

el o

f R

isk

Low

High

Time Frame

Near-Term1- 5 yrs

Medium -Term3 - 10 yrs

Long -Term8 - 15 yrs

Domestic & RegionalCapacity Balance:

Bishkek II & Talimardjan I

Export MarketNegotiation

South TransmissionLinks Development

Export Capacity PPP:Rogun & Talimardjan II

Russia

Afghanistan

Pakistan

IranChina?

INTERIMCG MEETING


Specific Generation projects for exports developed-Sangtuda 1 with

Russian funds

INTERIMCG MEETING


North South Transmission Line in Taj

Varzob HPP

Vanj HPP

Perepadnaya HPPShujand HPP

Pamir HPP

Khorog HPP

Namangut HPP

Ak-Su HPP

Regar

Aigul Tash

Financed by China

INTERIMCG MEETING


Tajikistan Afghanistan 220 kV Transmission Line

Project•Tajikistan:Tajikistan:

construction of construction of 220kV double-circuit 220kV double-circuit transmission from transmission from Sangtuda HPP to Sangtuda HPP to Sherhan BandarSherhan Bandar

•Afghanistan:Afghanistan:Sherkhan Bandar to Sherkhan Bandar to Phul-e-KhumriPhul-e-Khumri

•ADB/IsDB/OPEC fund financing

INTERIMCG MEETING


CASA 1000 Transmission Project

to transfer 1000 MW to Pakistan

Tajikistan 166 22%Nurek to Sangtuda 1 60Sangtuda I to Shekhanbandar 106

Afghanistan 544 70%Shekhanbandar to Pul-e-Khumri 154Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul 220Kabul to Jalalabad 90Jalalabad to AFG border 80

Pakistan 60 8%AFG border to Peshawar 60

770

Transmission Line Length (km)

Feasibility Studies Phase 1 done•Resource Assessment in CA•Demand Assessment in SA•Techno-economics of trans. Line

•Institutional•Financial•Risk Mitigation•Legal Framework

INTERIMCG MEETING


•Tajikistan launched development of coal resources•Quality of coal reserves is high – average 7000 kcal/kg•Developing these resources crucial for meeting:

•domestic winter demand; •year round power demand in export markets

Fan Yagnob Mine

•Held an Investor Roundtable in May 2007 in which private investors, IFIs and bilateral donors participated•Decisions reached:

•Integrated development of Mine and power plant•Fan Yagnob mine would be the first one to be developed•1500 MW targeted (1000 MW for exports rest for domestic market)•Will be developed as a Public private partnership•Tajik Government will bear all initial development costs

•USTDA willing to help with funding feasibility study

New Thermal Generation New Thermal Generation Capacity Being plannedCapacity Being planned

INTERIMCG MEETING


Roghun Hydroelectric ProjectRoghun Hydroelectric Project

• 3600 MW storage hydro upstream of Nurek HPP in Tajikistan

• Circa 30% constructed during Soviet times

– Government is looking to complete it w/ international investors and financiers

– In 2004 a deal was reached with RusAl, did not work

– Currently negotiating a new agreement with Russian Government

– Government keen on World Bank involvement in structuring and financing this project

– World Bank agreed to finance feasibility study compliant with Bank Group guidelines

• Which includes assessment of environmental, social and importantly riparian issues

– Economic viability depends on exporting majority of production

– Pakistan keen to import

– Another interesting large project option for PPP

INTERIMCG MEETING


PeshawarKabul

Facilities Under Construction

500 kV OHL South-North Financing: China Exim bank

Sangtuda 1 HPP Financing: Russia

Sangtuda 2 HPP Financing: Iran

220 kV OHL SS Sarban – Tajik/Afghan border

Financing: ADB/IsDB

Existing Facilities

Toktogul HPP Existing Surplus

Nurek HPP Existing Surplus

Perspective Facilities

220/500 kV Uzbek by pass SS Datka (Kyrgyz) – SS

Hojent (Tajik)

Cascade of Zarafshan HPPs (Yavan and Oburdon HPP) Annual generation 1680

GWh

Rogun HPP Annual generation 13000 GWh

Coal TPP Annual generation 3900-6400 GWh

500 kV OHL “CASA 1000” Nurek HPP – Kabul -

Peshawar

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan

India

China

CASAREM is a set of projects and institutional framework for enabling this

trade

INTERIMCG MEETING


• Projects are justifiable based on exports– Which bring its own set of political and security risks

• Project sizes are huge compared to size of economy– While export orientation should address this to some

extent, sustained domestic reforms are needed• These are underway, but at different pace in each country

• Private sector is needed, and there is interest– But limited interest– Many of them are majority foreign state owned

• Russia, Iran, China, India

• Governance Issues– These are real, but Government has shown willingness to

address them

• World Bank Group with other IFI partners, bilateral donors and private sector can address these risks

There Are Significant RisksThere Are Significant Risks

INTERIMCG MEETING


Partnerships of Partnerships

Inter-Ministerial Council

Multi-Country Working Group

Afghanistan Kyrgyz Rep. Pakistan Tajikistan

Inte

rnati

on

al Fi

nan

cial In

stit

uti

on

s

Inte

rest

ed

Pri

vate

In

vest

ors

Bilateral Donors/Institutions

INTERIMCG MEETING


Regional Cooperation is Imperative

• Necessity for Regional Cooperation– Existing dependencies – land locked nature,

complementary resource– New Opportunities

• Forms of Regional Cooperation– Market relationships; transit relationships; Investment

relationships; riparian relationships; littoral relationships; Knowledge sharing

• Benefits of Regional Cooperation– Significant boost to economic growth– New Opportunities; Transit revenues– Least cost development – sharing hydro resources

• Pre-conditions for Successful Regional Cooperation– Win-win for participants; no excessive dependence on one

another; diversify dependencies; commercial orientation• IFIs and bilateral donors can facilitate, and finance

INTERIMCG MEETING


Thank You Very Much

interim cg meeting copenhagen april 29, 2002 the electricity opportunity for integrating central...

Documents

interim cg meeting copenhagen

mwh slide

iea slide

sangtuda hpp

transmission project

global demand

global energy conditions

russian funds slide