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Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009

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Page 1: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Interim Financial Resultsfor the six months ended June 2009

Page 2: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Introduction and OverviewNonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita, CEO

Page 3: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

3

Overview (H1’2009 vs H1’2008)

Cost pressures per ton eased up• HRC and Billet rand cash cost

increased by 28% and 18% respectively

• Cost of steel sales increased 35%

Operations• Liquid steel production down 23%

• Average capacity utilisation of 60%

Earnings loss of R844m• Earnings loss per share of 190c

(profit per share of 1 027c)

• EBITDA decrease by 96%

Total steel shipments & prices• Despatches down 24%

• Average realised prices down 9%

• Unfavourable domestic/export ratio

Page 4: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

4

Key Result Drivers

Liquid steel production -11% -23%Total sales volume -12% -24%Export sales volume +81% +100%Domestic sales volume -30% -42%Flat carbon steel product prices -33% -9%Long carbon steel product prices -38% -8%HRC Rand cash cost per tonne -3% 28%Billet Rand cash cost per tonne -7% 18%Labour productivity 5% -5%USD/ZAR (closing rate) 18% 2%

H1’09 vs H’108H1’09 vs H2’08

Page 5: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Environment and steel markets

Page 6: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Global Environment – General Market Trends

World economic growth in 2008 decreased substantially to 3.2% from 5.2% in 2007 while negative growth of 1.3% is expected in 2009 (IMF World Economic Outlook)

Emerging markets grew by 6.1% in 2008 (2007: 8.3%), slowing down to an expected 1.6% in 2009

Chinese economy grew by 9% in 2008 compared to 13% in 2007 despite fiscal control measures to cool it down while a growth rate of close to 8% is expected for 2009

World crude steel production in the first six months of 2009 declined by 21% but China increased its output volumes by 1% compared to the same six months in 2008

Steel production in Europe and North America declined by -44% and -48% respectively in the first half of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008

WorldSteel’s latest forecasts are that steel production for 2009 will be down 14% to 1.14 billion tonnes compared with 2008 (-200mt)

6

Page 7: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

-7000-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000

010002000

7

Global Environment – Global Steel Market Trends

World production for first six months declined 21% to 548mt

China now constitute 49% of world production over the first half of 2009 compared to 38% in the comparable period

China in equilibrium between supply and demand

Lower risk of exports into emerging markets

Source: World Steel

80

105

130

25

30

35

40

45

50

Crude output (000t) China as % of world (%)

China – Imports minus exports

2006 2007 2008 20092005

2005

Crud

e stee

l outp

ut (m

t)(m

tonne

s)

2006 2007 2008 2009

%

Page 8: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

8

Global Environment – Input Cost Trends

Average 2009 international iron ore prices have so far been cut by 33% from 2008 benchmark levels

Iron ore pellet prices have dropped by 48% from 2008 benchmark levels

International spot coking coal prices have decline by 58% in 2009 to US$128/t for the contract period Apr 2009 to Mar 2010

Scrap prices during H1’09 have fallen on average by 55% to about US$275/t from the comparable period in 2008

Alloy values during H1’09 have come down with Zinc slipping by 42%

Crude oil prices during the first six months of 2009 were on average 58% lower when compared with the same period in 2008

Page 9: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

9

Global Environment – Benchmark Prices

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Coking coal Iron ore

Index

ed (J

anua

ry 20

04 =

100)

Scrap (Tex)

Page 10: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

10

Export Prices

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

LCWR

Quar

terly

aver

age e

xpor

t pric

es (C

&F) U

S$/t

HRC

Page 11: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

11

Domestic Market – Quarterly Shipments

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(kton

nes)

Flat carbon steel productsLong carbon steel products

Page 12: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

12

Domestic Market – Inventory Levels

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

(kton

nes)

Week’s dispatchesStocks (t)

Wee

ks

Source : SAISI up to Q3’08; ArcelorMittal South Africa estimates for Q4’08, Q1’09 and Q2’09

Page 13: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

13

Domestic Market – Imports

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

(tonn

es)

% of consumptionImports (t)

%

Source : SAISI up to Q3’08; ArcelorMittal South Africa estimates for Q4’08, Q1’09 and Q2’09

Page 14: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Physical results for H1’2009

Page 15: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ArcelorMittal South Africa

1515

Safety Remains our Priority

Zero fatalities

Safety achievementsVereeniging Works - 1m LTI free man hours

Vanderbijlpark Works – 4 x 1m LTI free man hours

Coke & Chemicals - 208 LTI free days

Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate(Employees and Contractors)

per 1

m m

an ho

urs

Page 16: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

16

Liquid Steel Production

2392 2463 2602 2465 2433 24301993

2238 22501834

1526

1085 10931105

1089 1100 1092

10741070 841

849

851

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

H1 2004 H2 2004 H1 2005 H2 2005 H1 2006 H2 2006 H1 2007 H2 2007 H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009

3 477 3 5663 707

3 554 3 533 3 522

3 0673 308

3 091

2 683

2 377

ktonn

es

Long carbon steel productsFlat carbon steel products

Page 17: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Shipment Volumes

1297 14311210 1192

1437 1556 1518 13691577

1258931

820781

857 1024781 530 436 597 255

322

416

594 557540

543 692744

778 757814

726

458

390 353426

438 323177 196 168

84

53

263

0

1000

2000

3000

H1 2004 H2 2004 H1 2005 H2 2005 H1 2006 H2 2006 H1 2007 H2 2007 H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009

Export flat carbon steel products Export long carbon steel products

3 101 3 122 3 0333 197 3 233

3 007 2 928 2 8912 730

2 359

2 068

ktonn

es

Domestic long carbon steel productsDomestic flat carbon steel products

Page 18: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

0%

12%

0%

20%

67%

87%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Europe

Asia

Americas

Total Africa

Rest of Africa

South Africa

Geographic Shipments

H1’09H2’08H1’07H2’06H1’06 H1’08H2’07

Page 19: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

H1’2009

19

Investment Programme

Rm

Major projects completed (and ongoing) in H1’2009Vanderbijlpark Works 69- New direct reduction kilns 5 & 6- Replace Tin Line Structure- Replace HSM delay table motors & drivesVereeniging Works 55- EAF dust extraction (2010)Other 215

Total Expenditure in H1’2009 339

Page 20: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

FinanceKobus Verster, Executive Director Finance

Page 21: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

21

Headline Earnings

Rm

*After tax

Revenue 18 403 21 511 11 960Profit/loss from operations 5 355 6 804 -322Gains & Losses on forex & financial instruments 377 260 -695Interest income 142 176 183Finance costs -27 -211 -141Income from investments 1 2 1Tax -1 669 -2 196 85Equity earnings* 392 -61 41Net deficit on disposal or scrapping of assets* 5 23 4Impairment* 111Headline earnings/loss 4 576 4 908 -844

- in US$m 597 554 -92

H1’2009H2’2008H1’2008

Page 22: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

22

Profit from operations

Flat carbon steel products 2 899 4 108 -577

Long carbon steel products 1 480 2 192 -12

Coke & Chemicals 927 816 95

Corporate & Other 49 -312 172

Profit/loss from operations 5 355 6 804 -322

H1’2009H2’2008H1’2008Rm

Page 23: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

23

Raw material costsH1’2009

vs.H1 2008

H1’2009vs.

H2 2008

Coal +21% +140%

Iron Ore +15% +39%

Imported iron ore pellets +10% +70%Scrap -46% -44%

Alloys -42% -31%

Zinc -11% -28%

Note: Movement in own cost in rand on a delivered bases

Rm

Page 24: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

24

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow 5 992 8 080 -320Working capital -2 122 -1 211 1 701Cash flow from operations 3 870 6 769 1 381Capex -857 -975 -339Net interest and Investment income 111 165 126Investments -16 -405Tax -1 757 -1 330 -640Dividends -874 -1 524 -1 627Net cash flow 493 3 205 -1 504Share buy back -3 918Net cash flow after share buy back 493 3 205 -5 422Net cash 4 793 8 378 2 966

H1’2009H2’2008H1’2008Rm

Page 25: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

25

Working capital movement

Inventories -1 417 -2 593 2 777Finished products 200 -368 147Work-in-progress -937 -746 872Raw materials -638 -1 378 1 820Plant spares & stores -42 -101 -62

Receivables -2 384 2 638 -701Payables 1 367 -760 -140Utlisation of provisions 312 -496 -235

-2 122 -1 211 1 701

H1’2009H2’2008H1’2008Rm

Page 26: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

26

Financial Ratios

Operating margin 29% 32% -3%EBITDA margin 33% 35% 2%Revenue / invested capital (times) 1.8 1.9 1.0Return on equity (annualised) 41% 38% -7%Net cash / equity 20% 30% 14%

H1’2009H2’2008H1’2008

Page 27: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

27

Quarterly Headline Earnings Trend

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

661 599353

656 672

13981586 1499 1582 1653

988 869703

12471488

12921530 1624

1055

1532

2003

2573

3772

1136

-607-237

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2

Rm

Page 28: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

ArcelorMittal ALSI Resources 20

28

Share Performance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Index

ed (J

une 2

004 =

100)

Period June 2004 to June 2009

Average Dividend Yield at 6.3% – 2.2x the market

Average Price Earnings ratio of 8.3x – 58% of the market

Page 29: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

29

Dividend

Dividend policyDistributing one third of headline earnings

Headline loss – no dividend declared

Page 30: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Industrial Plan and Other DevelopmentsNonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Page 31: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

31

Industrial Plan

Production still aligned to demand

Production and shipments for Q3’09 forecast to be somewhat higher than the previous two quarters

Continued adjustment of strategic growth plan to market conditions with a review of key projects essential for the post-crisis steel market

200920082007

ktonn

eskto

nnes

Production

Shipments

Q3’09 outlook

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09

0200400600800

1000120014001600

Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09

Page 32: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

32

Industrial Plan

Cost evolution (H1’09 vs H2’08)Total fixed cost reduction of R1,1bn

Fixed cost reduction excl labour of 51%

Labour cost reduction of 6%

Working capital reduced by 32%

Page 33: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

33

Investment Programme

Medium to long term market expectations for Sub-Saharan Africa remain optimistic

Focus on smaller projects with efficiency, quality enhancement and cost improvement objectives

Environmental projects are underwayElectric Arc Furnace dust extraction at Vereeniging Works

New waste disposal sites

Effluent treatment projects at Newcastle Works

Page 34: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

34

Other focus areas

1. Competition Tribunal; 2. Kumba iron ore arbitration; 3. Corporate Responsibility

Page 35: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Outlook

Page 36: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

36

Outlook for Q3’09

Business environmentDomestic and international demand expected to improve

Increase production to meet higher demand

Positive sentiment on international prices

Negative impact of tariff increases on electricity, rail and harbour charges

EarningsEarnings expected to improve

Could be impacted by exchange rate movements

Page 37: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

37

DisclaimerThis document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal South Africa and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlyingassumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal South Africa’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal South Africa’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal South Africa, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. ArcelorMittal South Africa undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Page 38: Interim Financial Results - ArcelorMittal Interims - Powerpoint.pdf · Interim Financial Results for the six months ended June 2009. Introduction and Overview Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Thank youArcelorMittal South AfricaRoom N3-5Main BuildingDelfos BoulevardVanderbijlpark 1911South Africa

www.arcelormittal.com/southafrica